james bullard calls for more hawkish policy. we await the key c.p.i. print from the -- good morning from singapore, where the new economy is gathering. we've heard from hank paulsen and from gina reymundo but my favorite goes to again henry kissinger. dani, we're through the main class and on the precipice. and we're looking both directions. i call that fully hedged. but this glimpse of deescalating and treating one another in the way -- in treating one another well. the words are equivalence and new subordination. dani: yeah. it's really perfect timing. having these conversations at the new economy forum. considering we just had that virtual summit with xi and biden. also bearing -- very significant that we had the chinese vice president talking about the need for china to have foreign investment. and it wants to also be open. it needs its global cooperation and china needs the world and the world needs china. we still bloomberg just this morning that china is looking at using more local tech companies versus that of outside of china. so yes, you have

tom: james bullard is the president of the st. louis fed. thanks to michael mckee as well, not only on retail sales in this economy but on the delicacies of the fed forward. the day extraordinary. are we going to do this tomorrow and wednesday? i think we have to. lisa: i think we are obligated to come in every day of the week and i think we want to because it is a fascinating moment. to think that james bullard is talking about other tools to tighten, including allowing the balance sheets runoff would be a game changer, including also raising rates before the end of taper because the taper is priced in. these are innovative approaches, not the consensus by any means, but highlight the sense of concern people have that the balance of risks is getting more heavily weighted to inflation that seems to be picking up quite a bit. tom: it shows our economics, our finance, our investment wrapped around the politics of this been demoed. there is no other way to put it. sobering statistics out of germany, switzerland, and austria. stay with us on blo

tom: this is the conversation of the day, with great respect for james bullard of the st. fed. for global wall street, the td securities call is simply stunning. it is mark mccormick and his resilient dollar with some nuances for next year, but leading the charge, there is priya misra, head of global rates strategy, into the far future. on the cover of your stunning report, you have the most important chart i have seen in fixed income in 20 years. credit suisse showing the fed funds rate and the ois for everyone's guesstimates that we have gotten wrong. you say once again we have got it wrong. priya: this sort of tells you that rates strategists on the market doesn't always call the fed. at the market is being really torn with high inflation. so the market is pricing in the first rate hike right after when tapering ends. our view is that huge impact on inflation will start to decelerate. so growth is going to slow. and inflation has peaked. it is not obvious to us that the fed has to turn around and start hiking aggressively. we actually have the first rate hike much later

and of course we heard from james bullard suggesting that the fed should speed up its taper. the handover to asia was more mixed and lower in japan. essentially flat over on mainland china. investors there are weighing up some changes on the regulatory front. the futures have turned positive in the u.s. gains of almost .1%. in terms of the sector breakdown in europe the gains at the top of the list industrial goods and services getting .3%. modest gains there. travel and leisure down by about .is 1%. china, we heard from kissinger at the new economy forum. and the chinese vice president wang qishan and been hearing from u.s. officials. china is not living up to its commitments from the phase one trade deal. that is according to the u.s.' gino raimondo. she was speaking at the new economy forum and is the commerce secretary. let's take a listen what she had to say particularly about supply chain issues. >> for so long, in our supply chain, the mantra has been just in time. and now we realize the vulnerabilities of just in time. we need to move to just in case. we need to have

point like an outright i mean exactly, supply chain out right lie deflect a question like that. >> james bullardte texas attorney general ken paxton here what he is doing to stop the administration unconstitutional overreach. . your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. maria: we'llh big news over weekend unvaccinated workers jobs safe for now a federal appeals court temporarily blocked president biden vaccine mandate for private employers after texas attorney general ken paxton and others sued over these new rules, the white house says not giving up defending the mandate over the weekend even saying that it will not rule out expanding to small bids right now businesses with 100 employees or more they want to expend t

louis federal reserve bank president james bullard told marie about the future leadership at the fedlisten and then i will get a response. >> i don't know what the white house is going to do. i would caution everyone on this that u.s. senate , as you know, is perfectly evenly divided, so it has to be something that the senate is going to go for and so i think that makes it difficult proposition for the white house. i will say this, that fmo mc is a large committee with a lot of experienced players on the committee and we have excellent staff across the federal reserve system so i would expect a lot of continuity in the policy no matter how the appointment process works out in the months ahead. dagen: sandy, your reaction to all of that come in the moving and shaking potentially? >> i think they did a great job of calming markets that may have done a nice job of just trying to make things unpredictable a little bit more predictable as a sort of smooth markets and key people at ease. hopefully, it stays with what they've done already which is to start the tapering, less than a hundred

louis president james bullard talking about the future of the fed. the other elephant is inflation.r more on this is bloomberg columnist john authers. we know there is speculation about what may come next for the fed, and there could be an announcement today from president biden. inflation seemed to be a point of debate. it is the market right that we will see a big turning point here, that the next head will make a huge difference in terms of how the fed handles it? john: on inflation, no, i do not buy it. if you look at history, jerome pal has been in the fomc nine years, lael brainard, nine years. neither of them have dissented every time on monetary policy. they have voted the same way. both of them are well experienced in the ways of the fed. there is no particular reason to think that either would dispel a direct change. the other argument to make is that people tend to think that democrats want to be more dovish, less keen to raise rates. with inflation where it is now, i'm not sure that is operative. matt: just to sort through the colloquialisms, when we say there is an elep

the aftermath of that, you have industrial production holding up very well, and you have james bullard talking to michael, saying we should taper faster so we can hike faster. it's a little bit of selling in the front end. irrespective of this, natural gas futures here and in europe are very high today because nord stream 2 seems to be caught up in a procedural delay. the reason it is also so important is because that will feed through into the sentiment and inflationary picture, and then do consumers start to care? i don't know. we will break that down for the next couple of hours. guy: we are getting peloton, the details of the offering on the secondary, coming through now. the biggest story to me today, rivian, now worth more than volkswagen. i find that number absolutely amazing, that we have gone so fast and overtaken some of the majors in the auto industry so quickly. we will talk about that as we work our way through the next couple of hours. let's talk about some of the biggest stories we are focusing on right now. annmarie hordern is at the white house. president biden's pick

james bullard of the st. louis fed gave our edward lawrence an interview one on one and he said we need two rate hikes next year. somethings telling him that it's not transitory and we will need to raise rates to tamp down very hot inflation. >> yeah, liz, there's definitely a lot of conversation on the board about that. we know what jerome powell said last week, he doesn't necessarily agree with that and if you just think about that pace, liz. if it takes the fed until the middle of next year to end their tapering, could this squeeze in two hikes right after that, in the back half of the year and liz, as you know and i know there's a mid-term election next year which usually causes a little bit of a black out period. i think that's a very aggressive pace. maybe they get one in by the end of next year but two or three hikes in the back half of next year just seems too aggressive, to us, because the thing that causes inflation to go up will mostly center around reopening the economy earlier this year. it's the

this morning fed person james bullard he was on "mornings with maria," he had a number of things he talkedbout. he made a lot of headlines, but one that stood out to me was this. take a listen. >> i'm not really looking for a lot of improvement on labor force participation going forward. charles: so to me that means no rate hikes. i think that is one of the things the market responded to this morning. how many do you model next year? how many rate hikes do you see? i'm not an economist but i say right now zero. >> charles, we're one over you. we think after the election in december we might get one. however the odds of that are falling. so we just heard from bullard. randy quarles, who was more of a hawkish governor retired today, resigned. and then we lost kaplan and rosengren. we look at that, we call the dot plot where everybody thinks where rates are going to be we're starting to lose all the members of the fed who were willing to raise rates and personnel is policy. so when you look at the fed it is made up of many more doves now. charles: right. >> as a result i think you may be righ

louis fed president james bullard today saying the central banks should tack in a more hawkish directiono battle higher inflation, including up the taper from 30 billion from 15 billion a month former fed president bill dudley says the fed has no choice but to get the taper done quickly. if powell sticks with his plan, how can investors hedge against inflation right now? let's bring in the president and ceo of hinon and walsh asset management kevin, i will start with you are you concerned about persistent inflation and what is your advice for positioning around it? >> you think that cpi rose 6.2% in the month of october on an annual basis, the highest annual rate of growth in 31 years plus, americans are now paying more at the pump than they have since october of 2014. so inflation isn't going away. however, the fed does have a tnt program in place to help control inflation, promote full employment, and also grow the economy back from the depths of covid-19 that relates to taper, narrowing and tightening they've started the tapering process, and we believe they will start toaccelerate th

i will also tell you that james bullard just told me he is expecting the supply disruptions a resultrtly. the supply disruptions will last beyond 2022. that was another headline out of my interview with him. this is a -- the biden administration is sticking to its climate agenda rather than recognizing that this is actually impacting american families in a big way. it will get more expensive, bill. >> bill: you come back to the point being too nonchalant and going on offense. go on offense and make people believe you are doing something about it. gasoline $3.42 a gallon. a year ago it was $2.11. a difference of $1.31 in 12 months. in addition talk about everyday goods right now, car rental 43%. hotels 20%, pork, steak, beef, 20% and the list goes. on natural gas what you find -- the "wall street journal" writes about this today. exporters are sending more gas than ever to countries starved for fuel which means less for us here at home this winter. >> yeah. that's right. the biden administration is going to have to do something about this. it is costing american families much more tha

louis fed president and james bullard and possible rate hikes a different take. >> i moved my right hikesexactly how to play out it is data dependent. >> going to be a voting member michael. >> that is the last thing he said was it is important -- they are going to react how the data come in, going forward not going to react yesterday's data, and we see many signs that some inflation pressures are easing some the shifts, l.a. ports starting to stabilize we are starting to see relationship between new orders and production. so nancy lazar our economist has been highlighting good sign for future inflation starting to come down you see unemployment claims starting to come down people most likely coming back into labor force. not going to change overnight we do believe this is worst part of that inflation story should get a little years going forward. cheryl: when would that be? i think that is the big issue here. because we are coming up on holidays, but between labor shortage between the supply chain issues all those ships that are still having -- having to pay a trucker double, what you pa