that was a nervous laugh from kailey leinz. kailey: i have this vision of a bolo tie. can go bolo tie. jonathan: should we make that happen? we should make that happen. you don't buy me anything. i cannot wait for that. tom: do you like marmite? jonathan: you joke, knowing u.s. that time, that could be the interview. the nasdaq is down. no drum in stocks. -- no drama in stocks. just waking up on euro-dollar. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. in the u.k., boris johnson is fighting to stay in power after two top aides jumped ship. their resignations came after johnson apologized for the latest scandal involving allegations of sexual misconduct against a conservative member of parliament. the new chancellor made his name as the vaccines minister during the pandemic. in have the department, illinois, authorities have charged the suspect in the shooting at a fourth of july parade with seven counts of first-degree murder. more charges will be filed in coming days. the 21-year-old could be sentenced to life in prison without pa

kailey leinz, the energy players are not quiet about this at all. iley: thinking of -- speaking about things getting politicized, look at oil. we know they were raking in profits, we did not know this much. chevron is returning more capital to shareholders, with a $15 billion buyback. the ceo seems to know how that would play with the biden administration. in the statement he pushed back on the idea of profiteering, saying we more than doubled investment last year to grow both traditional and new business lines. chevron is increasing energy supplies to meet the challenges facing global markets. so they are helping consumers too? jonathan: that is not going to be in the government's communications. they are going to lead with a $15 billion share repurchase program. lisa: that is when all of these companies are doing. they are putting their money back and not investing in production, because why should they if they do not have a clear backdrop of what the regulatory outlook will look like? jonathan: emily wilkins in d.c., our government reported. how d

let's get to kailey leinz for some movers. ey: we have been looking ahead to the ecb decision so much, we have not talked about tesla, which reported after the bell. working through supply chain issues with the lockdown in china. elon musk says he is optimistic that the supply chain held. they also sold about 75% of their bitcoin stake. alcoa beating expectations. las vegas sands beating expectations thanks in large part to the recovery in singapore. 3.9%. the downside movers include united, which was warning about capacity this year and next. they will not be able to wrap it up as much as they wanted to, trying to work through disruptions on labor and fuel. that stock is down 7.4%. american airlines this morning echoing that, saying capacity could be down 10%. finally, carnival, not an earnings story, but they announced a $1 billion stock offering. down about 12%. tom: every four months, don't they do another offering of some kind? kailey: they do but this could be one of the largest equity offerings of the year. tom: thank yo

tom: kailey leinz, infra lisa. john hits it perfectly, inflation-adjusted versus nominal rate. earnings bringing nominal revenue growth. kailey: bank earnings are just wrapping up this morning, but really the theme throughout that as we hear from the executives at the big bank is the consumer is resilient with bank of america out there talking about the highest order of consumer spending ever. jonathan: exactly, nailed it. absolutely perfect. this is the juxtaposition that we have right now. a single line like that from a major bank versus the levels of gloom that we have to consider. tom: the average number -- jonathan: the average number of the consumer, bank of america, the research division did some work on this with the lower income threshold in america's -- spending close to 10% of that monthly wallet income on gas and it might getting a bit that are in the move that we have seen over the last month, but that's the story of the last year, getting's. jonathan: letting you look at equities, oil has a lift on west texas for a second. jonathan: we have to bounce from that stor

we are together with kailey leinz. futures are down 0.1%. the nasdaq is down 0.5%.uro-dollar is 101 .40. just to pick up on the words on china, removing some of these tariffs, the latest reporting from the team, the president will meet with his advisers today on possible reductions in tariffs on chinese goods. that meeting is taking place later. tom: the size of those reductions, we are really looking at -- we're looking at small nudges. jonathan: focus on the size and where. that's going to be interesting. what do they remove? what is the reduction? do they double down to make this more palatable at home? this administration is accusing the chinese of conducting genocide, that's a very big accusation. to remove tariffs on that government is going to be a big deal. tom: i want to thank the white house for attendance yesterday. welcome on a most unusual jobs day. jeff rosenberg is one of our guests scheduled to be with us. an assassination in japan. tobias harris will join us in a bit, he is an expert on the reach of shinzo abe and his domestic politics. on the inter

kailey leinz is in for lisa. we have to frame right now, we have not done this today. lagarde coming out with statements at 7:00 and then happens? jonathan: we need to find out a few things. what to they do with interest hikes? maybe a slight lean toward 50. not for me personally, but some are offering that proposal. most people, the consensus view is 25. then we need to work at what is happening with the bond buying program. the new tool that is set to prevent fragmentation. the other issue, italian politics. on top of that, the ecb. you have to work out what happened with russian gas as nord stream comes back online. four things that you have to watch tomorrow. tom: for americans, it is all confusing. we go back to observing the markets. very good equity pricing over the last 15 days. jonathan: really nice gains yesterday. every group on the s&p are positive. netflix was not as bad as expected. if you expect to million subscriber losses and you end up with one. the big test for tech is next week. tom: kailey from virginia writing, hey, stupid, it is 8:00. thank you f

kailey leinz is in fort lee said this morning. an historic day, not about the labor economy or adp, it's about four exchange and yield showing the shocking bet toward a global slowdown. jonathan: numbers we have not seen for two decades. sterling breaking down to a 1.18 handle. a difficult time for europe. gas prices, energy prices very much at the epicenter of it. tom: up 300% plus for utility costs in the united kingdom. just to capture the moment, maybe it is away from the morning dialogue, em foreign-exchange has moved from plus three down to minus -- em fx is in collapse. jonathan: he just called it what it is for so many people come recession trade. even crude rolling over. 99 wti. curve inversion. it is starting to come together in a more pronounced way. tom: i have jp morgan, goldman sachs and others giving us the fear of 120 oil, and edward morse absolutely crushed that. jonathan: that gives you an idea of the degree of uncertainty, the ranges that why four people in this commodity market. muhammad ali puts it well for us

tom: this is the price of having kailey leinz on. we have to flog crypto morning. jonathan: i am happy to do that. the port folio manager for the blacklock global allocation fund joins us. you been conservative. you have not been constructive. has any of that changed? russ: i think the short answer is not really. we are still in an environment where we have had. we have had tightening liquidity which has been a huge headwind. you have a slowing economy. these have not gone away. i would say valuations are much more reasonable plays than they were 12 months ago. globally ec multiples compressed around 30%. i think we are close to a bottom. the market is in the process of making a bottom. all of the conditions that led to the volatility, they have not gone away yet. tom: julian emanuel gives me the first look at 11% of spx earnings. he has a nice inflation revenue lift, but critically he is modeling out earnings at 4.8% growth. that is not bad. i know things are down. is the pendulum overestimating the gloom? russ: you hit on what is the big issue going forward. i sp

i am jonathan ferro alongside tom keene together with kailey leinz. equity futures up .8% or .9% on the s&p. the ecb writing its own promo. tom: we are in front two days early because it is important, and the research notes on it are outstanding. i will go to our guest in the last hour, great set of guests. he says this is christine lagarde and she has lost optionality. jonathan: our latest reporting suggests she is doubling down on the effort to come up with that at all, the transmission detection mechanism on top of the fact they are considering a 50 basis point hike. put that together with this one. this from the european commission on nord stream one. gas supplies into europe, we do not expect it comes back. we were looking for to come back this thursday. tom: that is a wildcard for her. the issue here is the elephant in the room. from day one it has been a different structure than the united states. they do not have a combined fiscal policy and yet on february 24 deutsche bank told us they will need a massive combined fiscal policy. jonathan: tha

lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro myself.igher by about a basis point, your 10-year is 269.51. that is quite a move. lisa: amazon benefited from a cloud computing at aws which did better than expected. they don't have the same kind of inventory. they have other people selling stuff on their platform so they are not left with the hangover amazon and walmart -- the hangover amazon -- hangover walmart is dealing with. kailey: the big -- jonathan: the big question in washington is if the speaker policy will go to taiwan. joining us now is isaac boltansky. i know you feel like this is lose-lose. which way will she take? isaac: it feels difficult for her to have to pull back at this time. i think she has to go to taiwan. i think the optics would be atrocious if she skips out now and it would be a terrible signal given our relationship with taiwan. lisa: how does president biden deal with this and what does this do with his agenda? he spent two hours 20 minutes speaking about that with president xi jinping. isaac: from a practical p

good morning to kailey leinz. kailey: netflix is one of the big stories this morning.pected them to lose 2 million subscribers, but only about one million, not as bad as expected. the stock was down 70% year to date earlier but you are seeing some relief before the bell. other earnings movers, biogen lifting its full your outlook, but there was a disappointment in the pipeline, which is possibly why they are down 2.4%. baker hughes missing due to the suspension of business in russia. that stock down about 4%. we are awaiting more earnings today. after the bell, tesla is reporting. facing a lot of headwinds from china in particular. we will look for clarity on that. speaking of china and their covid zero policy, due to an outbreak in macau, casinos have been shut. it looks like they will open july 23. tom: thank you so much. we are going to get away from the vanilla, stocks up, down, and actually go inside baseball and what pros are talking about in the debt market between a yield that yields and one that floats. deborah cunningham, cio at federated, is with us. i see a

tom: kailey leinz is with you. tom: planning crypto tuesday? kailey: i'm always planning crypto. i'm paying attention to snap. is that important macroeconomic indicator? companies not wanted to spend on online advertising because the environment is deteriorating. slowing in hiring. something we're hearing companies talking about. what does that indicate? jonathan: the paper plane in a windstorm. we have to see how facebook and google standup. i said that. i said earlier as well. you seem to have ignored it. kailey: does not count of it comes from you. jonathan: ok. fantastic. hopefully we can catch up next week. nasdaq down by .5%. five or six basis points on a 10-year. in europe, not great. euro-dollar -.6%. crude down 1.5%. kailey: the unwinding of price pressure in commodities something to keep an eye on. speaking of central bank responses, we got a rate cut from the bank of russia about an hour and a half ago, 30 mexico. it's friday -- 30 minutes ago. it's friday. cutting rates down 8%. economists were expecting 9%. 150 basis points when we were expecting 50. the cumulative t

kailey leinz will dive into the analysis. someone who knows ken lewis is ken leon from cfra.major banks and the great financial crisis. it is absolutely stunning the degree brian moynihan had to pick up. it is 2.1% per year for bank of america. that was the debris he picked up and picked it up and cut costs. is he at a point or he will cut costs again? can: first -- ken: you are right. if we do see further weakness in the capital markets, i think by december, the bank will have to look at whether they have too many people in terms of investment banking. i don't think we will hear that today but for the back part of the year. tom: we know the calendar on this and you frame up february bonuses in the distant dark of the fourth week of september. it is all of that going to be moved forward this weekend -- this year? kenneth: i think able do the work in august to see if we continue to see investment banking fees down 60% for the year as we saw for the first half of the year, then obviously you don't need a large machine in terms of equity underwriting in particular ipo's. jonatha

tom: kailey leinz is with us today as lisa abramowitz is on the edge of everest. i look at where we are, the ecb is the focus, but it is also earnings season. the first calculation of actual earnings growth. maybe it won't be that bad. kailey: that is the question, will we see a continuation of young able to pass on higher input costs, retaining margin? is that going to start changing if the demand picture starts to change? it is something we are going to continue to look for color on as well as the idea of fx headwinds. we had multiple companies citing the dollar as a reason they won't be as stellar. apple selling higher, what message does that send? tom: i've only flung to this equation three times. 40 times nine over five, combine that. plus 32 equals 104. did i do ok? jonathan: are you doing degrees centigrade into fahrenheit? tom: a public service. jonathan: why do i have to translate everything you do? tom: this is what we never memorize because we are americans. jonathan: saying the temperatures are still climbing, maybe not the record. are we done that the

good morning with lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz. i am jonathan ferro. futures cash equity futures are positive -- equity futures are positive. michael: we are looking at an employment cost index that goes down a little bit which had been a record high in the first quarter. now we are looking at the second quarter numbers, 1.3%. that is better news. wages and salaries, a 5.3% increase for the 12 month period ending in june. 3.2% for the 12 month period ending in june of 2021. it has gone up significantly. does that mean we have a wage-price spiral? maybe not. but it is good news for the fed. personal income is up 6/10 of a percent. that is the same of a prior month. we will see if it is wages and salaries, that becomes the real question. spending is up 1.1%, about what is expected. significantly better than what we saw in may which was 3/10 gained, more than double that in terms of personal spending. you have to take out inflation from that. real personal spending is nothing to write home about -- i caused a 3/10 decline the month before. the numbers eve

jonathan: good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance, i'm jonathan ferro along with kailey leinz. on the nasdaq 100, we are up by 1.12%. earlier, bank of america earnings, coming up next, goldman. tom: goldman sachs telling us maybe it be eight better quarter and we will hear from j.p. morgan in a moment. green on the screen, it's a very nice live through the market, 22,000. jonathan: next week the federal reserve conclusion after the consumer sentiment survey of data on friday with a rate hike that is 75 and not on hundred. >> i don't know what to make of the ecb meeting. i think it's hugely anticipated by economic wants. -- wonks. what is she going to say that's going to change the dialogue around a brutal war in ukraine and horrific weather. jonathan: what's the most important aspect of thursday? the ucp work nord stream one coming online and how much gas will do it. jonathan: i will -- tom: i will go with that. we are seeing it in the price of gold -- gold -- the price of coal and gas. the distinction between the confidence and tone in europe versus america, it's really stark

kailey leinz has called in a favor and is tracking in these moves. i am happy to be here. a day where growth concerns are dominating and we are seeing a bid into haven assets like treasuries. risk assets down, nasdaq 100 down point or percent ahead of those big tech results. consumer discretionary sector, dragging. you can blame it on walmart. it is technically in staples, but the things it was talking about when it cut its profit outlook the second time has reached across retail. it is dragging down amazon and shopify. they announced a 10% drop in their workforce today, they are cutting about 1000 jobs due to the environment they are facing. that is weighing down the stocks across the board. walmart talked about the idea that in consumers are faced with inflation, their energy bills are going up. it takes more to cool their homes in the summer as hot as this one. they are spending more on things they absolutely need to spend money on, they are spending less on things they may want. things like clothing, electronics. all the things we are seeing so much inventory retailers

i'm jonathan ferro together with kailey leinz and tom keene.he nasdaq 100 up .2%, goes higher by a couple basis points, crude falls back, slipping beneath the radar but a sizable move. any $5.13 and to round things -- $95.13. and the tiniest bit of euro strength going into the decision, 8:15 eastern time. tom: it is very nuanced, something to watch. that usual turkish lira angst, but worth watching. the swiss franc supposed to be at 0.98 moments ago, a big deal to see it below .99 as we go into the important moment for the ecb and christine lagarde. francine lacqua is in rome, not just in a heatwave but in a normal summer in rome made more complex by the collapse of the draghi 10-year -- 10-year -- tenure. she will join us cozy in the moment with a spreads that she has earned. francine: and air-conditioning. tom: yes. for draghi, what is next? francine: we don't know what's next but we -- he will probably be looking at italian politics from afar. there is no real legitimacy 10 taking charge of the government, he has been in charge for many mont

this is "bloomberg surveillance," alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro with kailey leinz. year equity market negative .1. we are on two things, parity watch and resignation watch number two. tom: they are linked. the stress and attention away from the scandals that are the reality of uncontrollable inflation. i would emphasize for our american audience on radio and television it is different in the u.k. utility bills, grocery bills, the nearness of the continent, the nearness of the war of ukraine makes it a different moment, as sir lindsay hoyle talks in the house of commons right now. jonathan: we can hand it over to the house of commons right now with questions. prime minister: to make impacts lower and the tax burden easier. these changes will benefit 30 million people across the u.k., and i'm pleased to say that two of those people are seated in the public gallery today, mandy, a typical worker, will now save the hundred 30 pounds per year -- save 330 pounds per year, real money for real people. mr. speaker, i'm sure the house will also join me in wishing the best of

alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, here with kailey leinz. futures down. it is the end of forward guidance. tom: we can talk about that and bonds forward next week to a very important fed meeting. but we have to do -- what i see on the data screen right now is the shocking speed that we see in curve inversion. absolutely stunning how we revisit new, greater inversion. jonathan: what i see in economic data in europe, it is dreadful. pmi a downside surprised here that is not what you want to see the day after a for the basis point hike. socgen still calling this one unbuyable potentially through the rest of the year. tom: that is on the gdp as well they have become dependent perhaps after what we saw yesterday. obviously, the market not impressed. the surge in euro terms right around. it is about economic data, wrapped against, as lagarde mentioned yesterday, original politics. tom: -- jonathan: isn't it good news we stop pretending what will happen in europe? tom: you know where i am on this. jonathan: what do you make of snap chat coming out and saying no

together with kailey leinz back in your city, and in this market, we have lots to talk about. >> we always have a lot to talk about these days, and even with all of that, a fear of recession, first and foremost, in addition to turmoil, we have three days of gains on the s&p 500. those gains are continuing in the session this moring. we are up eight points on the s&p futures, or .2%. the same for the nasdaq 100. we are getting a look at the small caps. they are up about 3/10, but were a lot of volatility has been concentrated is in the bond market, and we have had minutes yesterday. you saw massive move at the short end of the curve, as the fed talks about the opus of inflation. they are teeing up a move of for teen or 75 basis points. coming up in three weeks, and as a result, you have even more deeply inverted yield curves. a two year treasury yield is only up about basis way or two, but it is north of three sent, where is the 10 year yield is trading at 295. at two 30 year yield at 14, so the yield curve reflects the concern that they are moving aggressively. that may cause an economic s

kailey leinz, your thoughts on the back of this one? it looks like a loose definition of anti-fragmentation talk from the ecb. kailey: i think i got a description but not necessarily an understanding. people will be asking for more clarity from christine lagarde at that press conference starting at 8:45. you are definitely seeing the reaction in the bond market. the spread is narrowing now. the move in the euro is stronger on the back of a larger move than expected, although we did get it floated earlier this week, so maybe this is the way that things go now. tom: the key headline is ex-a nte. i believe it is 9:45 when they get that document. the idea that they are not going to restrict before the fact is a huge deal. you will get some ex post after-the-fact analysis fro e christine lagarde. >> gradualism is out the window and perhaps even credibility around forward guidance. going 50 basis points means that this idea that they are getting exposed to forecasts going forward, it is hard to believe the market will take that seriously. then

the former richmond fed president, jeffrey lacker, speaking with bloomberg's jonathan ferro and kailey leinzplenty more ahead here on "bloomberg markets: asia." stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. india's number two exporter info sy has said revenue will grow 15s percent through march next year. the new revenue projection alleviates concerns that a slowing global economy will stifle technology spending. india's second largest private sector lender beat estimates for the second quarter on robust demand for loans and wedding interest margins. income rose to $864 million. the mumbai based bank has been growing rapidly in response to higher demand for consumer credit. oliver bloom is set to become volkswagen's ceo. according to sources, herbert diess's clashes with labor unions and delays in the software unit, spurred the shakeup. we are told that vw is betting bloom will be more collaborative and stable as the company pushes into electric vehicles. juliette: one market that is moving higher today is singapore, very much on the reopeni

over in new england, we find kailey leinz getting ready for the fourth of july spectacular. boost for the local economy. >> we are expecting 400,000 people on the esplanade on the charles river tonight. this is the first time the boston pops has been live at this location since 2019. in 2020, it was a different story for boston and the rest of the world. in 2021, it was a subdued affair at tanglewood. everybody is excited to be back in boston. a lot of people coming in for the holiday weekend for this event, that will provide a boost to the local economy. big cities all over the world often took a major economic hit during the pandemic. you can still see empty storefronts as you walk around the city. everybody is excited for this revitalization and bringing so many thousands of people back this weekend. guy: how many thousands are we talking about? what is going to be topping the bill? >> 400,000 people are expected, no pressure for myself or romaine bostick who are hosting this event. they open the gates in about an hour, you will start to see the people flooding in. they a