kevin barker of piper sandler. thank you. >> thank you, tyler. >>> coming up, saving lives and the environment. a mobile disaster unit that runs on clean energy. plus tech on deck, a key week for tech earnings and we'll break down today's three-stock lunch. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq - [narrator] it's a mixed up world. and the way we work looks a little different. but whether you embrace the new normal or just want to get back to the routines that feel right, x-chair continues to be at the forefront of change, which is why we've launch

piper sandler, chief technician. >>> coming up, growing trouble nfme franchisees are showing no coidencedonald's ceo. that story next. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >>> some mcdonald's franchise owners are becoming disenfranchised with the company's ceo. a new survey out from a franchisee group said a majority supported calling for a no-confidence vote kate rogers has more on why they're so frustrated. kate. >> the national owners association, which is a large independent mcdonald's franchisee advocacy group recently polled it's nearly 1,000 members and about 700 responded. an overwhelming 87% support calling a vote of no confidence on the ceo and the u.s. president. it is worth noting mcdonald's has reported it has 2400 franchise owners in total. the poll comes on the heels of changes being made to the franchise system that include evaluating new operators equally instead of giving preferential t

piper sandler reducing their call from a neutral to a by. the analyst estimates are still for 2.83, so they expect a 60% gain between now and the second quarter of 2023. one will analysts bring their revisions down? sam: in many ways, once they hear from management in this coming reporting period, not only will we see earnings come in weaker than anticipated for this quarter, but they will be forced to reduce their estimates. in many ways, prices lead fundamentals. right now, fundamentals are holding firm. they will look down soon and realize they don't have the support they were expecting. matt: can i ask you a trivial question? that your time at the stern school of business, learning portfolio construction for the cfp, the term draw down to me always meant peak to trough. and you have to fully recover before you can measure a drawdown. it seems it is the word of the quarter. everyone is using it to replace "losses." doesn't a draw that have to be measured after a full recovery? sam: just as we decide whether we are in a pullback, bear mark

meaningful recovery rally if you are a bull, tune in if you are a bear, tune in craig johnson from piper sandler. he looks at the charts for a living craig, what do the charts tell you? >> dom, the charts are constructive we titled the most recent book "on the ropes. the markets have been on the ropes this year with the worst start to 2022 in terms of equities and bond. things are looking more constructive, dom. we start looking at the s&p and reversing the down trend from the april highs. we see measures in the market that are really extremely oversold measures we look at are levels we rarely have seen over the last 50 years. there are a lot of investors that are still too negative and the breadth is just now starting to improve the sa&p is setting up for a rally. we reiterate 4,775 by year end. >> 4,775 that is a meaningful move higher where exactly are you seeing the pockets of strength within that overall trade? you look at the s&p 500. it is a market of stocks what will be the leadership here back to technology >> dom, it will be a couple of things coming off the lows is health care stocks

software with the value creation and sustainable returns and on the other side of the argument is piper sandlerimates saying the spending will hit all tied to do inflation but 95% of analysts say most cells that all across wall street and that in a way in and of itself is concerning and we are still early in the summer but so many strategists have said it will be choppy. >> it is been a while since we talked about this some we rarely talk about it when it comes to microsoft anyway but they got up this idea we talked to him yesterday and i know that we have been pulling on this thread of bundling and what happens when some of the smaller players have to cut costs and microsoft can come in and get the market but i wonder if that becomes an issue more in the weeks and months ahead as maybe you see some of these struggle. >> there is that and of course the ongoing question about m&a and what happens and are some of these regulatory probes especially in the uk just this week is at the beginning of something bigger and where would they turn if they had a dead-end? >> it is so interesting in that the

technology stocks, reporting microsoft meta, amazon this month coming up, joining me right now piper sandlerints with a we heard from jpm beginning of season. >> we are expecting, an increasing number of misses on pop line and bottom, this earnings season doing to see kwak last year and a half worth of rising interest rates rising oil prices, heck, rising everything that is starting to weigh on economy. and,s though market has done down seven months it takes a long time for all of that tightening the fed still tightening, to really show up and be reflected in the economy earnings and employment so first six months of this year stock market gone down because of rising rates over next 15 months we think market is going to continue, to struggling, and not going to be rising rates going to be slowing economic growth slowing earnings rising employment we continue to see, more and more evidence, that the dominoes continue to fall in that direction. maria: really about macrostory right michael? and statement, ceo jamie dimon this morning says in our global economy dealing with two conflicting facto

enphase and solaredge which can raise and beat the quarter the firm also likes sunrun meantime, piper sandler nova to neutral so differing opinions here, kelly. >> pippa, we know ev sales have gotten a boost from the high cost of gas. i had a friend over this weekend who was bragging about her and it was a month's long wait just to get it. what do we know about the extent to which high prices have caused, if they have, a boom in solar installations? >> we have seen record demand and the cliff side is can supply keep up? the longer utility rates remain high pg&e out in california they're raising prices by 20% this year, so that has real, real consequences for customers across the board and it makes the longer term case for solar more attract of and they saw more than 1,000% increase in searches over the past month around whether or not if you have solar and storage how you can survive a power can outage, and it doesn't mean as one data point as well as spiking utility rates. as i've said before, we looked into it and felt like it wasn't ready for prime time, but with every passing year maybe w

exposure to the auto sector, how much is auto going to compensate for the weakness in pc and handsets piper sandlererexposure to evs, so any comments there, they just said they're partnering with foxconn last week. the third point is something that's relevant to all semi conductors is an inventory correction coming down the pipeline have we hit that because of double ordering, inventory levels, because supply chain problems are starting to ease. and last but not least, that would be the china covid lockdown, so these are all things we're looking out for with revenue $3.26 billion for nxp. the street expects it to come in line it's more about the future, the near-term future for a lot of these companies. >> got it. kristina, thank you. >>> semis are underperforming as the market recovers with the s&p going green. nasdaq has cut its losses from down 1% at the top of the hour and now down half a percent. the dow also picking up some steam into the close, up about 78 points. joining us is sam stovall, chief investment strategist at cfra. sam, we've had a nice rally here in july, best month of the year.

he says the pmi will not bottom and that is a year ahead let's bring in michael with piper sandler. you've been so consistent on this theme and correct that the economy is slowing, but why do you see it getting worse from here instead of stabilizing or resetting at what's still a growing level >> sure. thanks for having me, kelly. good to see you. >> the reason -- the business cycle is something that doesn't change over time and the reason we have the ebb and flow of the cycle and we r recessions and recoveries is all about the cost of money and the cost of goods going down and things like interest rates and oil prices are the most obvious drivers of the cycle and we still have the fed raising rates and we still have very high oil prices and we still have now banks that are beginning to tighten lending standards, and so we're not even done with the tightening phase of the cycle so you can't really begin to talk about the beginning of the recovery until that's over there's a long lead between changes in policies and how long it takes to respond in earnings and employment and that's w

brent from piper sandler both investors and companies seeing losses in the volatility and we will breake action first a programming note, tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern we have a cnbc special report, taking stock the state of the marks rk tgee t every corner of th maeto t actionable trade from leading analysts. you won't want to miss it. stick around we're back in a moment >>> welcome back, everybody. cracks keep forming in the crypto market. it owes nearly $5 million to users and it marks the third major crypto firm to go bankrupt here to discuss the losses that we're seeing is our own mackenzie sagalos. welcome. i wish it were a better topic and the biggest question people are asking are people when put their money into the platforms get it back? >> sure. you take the example of celsius who went bankrupt and it has alameda research and then it has 1.7 million customers. who do you think is last in line to get their money back and the setup was such that the customers who gave the money to the platform, they're getting no collateral there and there was this high risk, high reward and cus

and piper sandler's coverage universe and susan anderson points to guess and sketchers as the most exposed with about 60% of revenues outside the u.s now louisiana lemon and columbia supports wear are correlated to a strong u.s. dollar according to an analysis done by mmorgan stanley. tractor supply, target, home depot, ulta and dollar general has beneficiaries of a strong dollar with most of their operations right here in the u.s. kelly and tyler? >> we would expect, courtney, that maybe they are more insulated than other sectors i mean certainly tech has a higher exposure overall? >> definitely. i think things get complicated with retail, of course, when you're talking about as i mentioned sourcing products and then selling products. then the translation back. there is a lot of complicated exposure mix w we know that not all stocks trade with fundamentals when you can point to a reason that one company is hurt more or less than another so it really is one of those do your home work on individual names here i think gave you about 20 of them right there so hopefully that helps a little >>

piper sandler cutting its full-year estimates for microsoft, reducing its price target to 312 from 352ronger dollar and the outlook for i.t. spending during a potential recession. analysts at deutsche bank, though, say microsoft screens as the top name in the software space in terms of quality and price to quality steve kovach joins us. how is microsoft able to combat the currency headwinds and negative outlook for i.t. spending is it a safe bet or not? >> it depends on who you ask if you ask satya nadella, he says it's a safe bet he just does not see cybersecurity and i.t. spending going away he didn't say it's not going to slow down, it might, but he sees that as such an important thing for literally every business out there to be spending money on even in a recession. so he's if not in the short term optimistic, he's very long term optimistic and microsoft is in good company with these price target cuts earlier we saw cuts for apple, netflix, alphabet and by the way, those names are having great weeks. microsoft is the laggard of the big tech that we've been talking about all week >

joining me to talk about all of this is roberto curly, head of global policy for piper sandler, an investment banking company. he's also senior staff member on the federal reserve board. thank you so much for joining us. walk us through what goes on in that room as these federal reserve officials are making this decision given that you have been there and made -- took part in this decision in the past, as well. >> well, good morning. what goes on in the room is that all the members and the staff look at all the data available, especially data on inflation, of course, these days, and try to make a decision what's the best thing to do to bring inflation back to roughly 2% level that the fed would likto -- would li achieve. inflation is higher than that. the decision would be to raise rates again aggressively, most likely 75 basis points like last time, in order to have a chance of bringing inflation back to a more reasonable level. of course they will weigh the impact that they will have on inflation with the impact that the same decision will have on the rest of the economy, particular employm

joining me to discuss it all, piper sandler chief global economist nancy lesar.ancy, i couldn't find a single analyst yesterday or this morning at 9.1%. i will tell you on my twitter feed i had a dozen followers who called the number on the t. i'm always wondering why wall street is so persistently behind. the numbers never seem to be right. >> i was certainly wrong too. we had a number 1% month on month and it certainly beat. that what companies seem to be doing raising prices to support their revenue and that is just not sustainable. furniture prices are up, furniture sales are down. apparel prices are up but apparel sales are down. companies are trying to support their revenue by raising price. that is just not sustainable. that -- hit the cycle as we move through q2. charles: nancy, with that in mind, i had a number of guests on all year long recently, said that the consumers have anywhere 2 1/2 $3 trillion excess savings. that was oxymoron, right? i be that as it may, there seems to be room for these companies to continue to raise their prices? >> well the t

it's piper sandler they launched coverage on athletic and footwear and i want to hit nike especially because of what i told everybody about adidas they assume that with a neutral rating on nike, a $115 price target, but now that you had adidas just come out during our program and cut their full-year outlook, mow do we need to think, okay, what's that mean for nike >> they've already lowered their numbers when they reported earnings a couple of weeks ago >> maybe not enough. >> i think they're really low. and they're not even thinking about any kind of margin, even staying flat they're declining margins as well we know china, we know inflation, we know supply chains, the stock is down 36%. this is the top company in the space trading at the low end of its historical range and i think this is something that maybe not next quarter or the quarter thereafter, but in the next year or two, i'll be really glad i got it at this level. >> let's take a quick break. jim cramer's charitable trust is taking stock in one energy stock and josh brown has aed ndd aew one to his portfolio we'll reveal

sell a billion dollars worth of new stock docusign lower after a downgrade to underweight from piper sandlergher after announcing it will buy one medical for nearly $4 billion. jeff kilberg, cnbc contributor, here live in studio. jeff, it is great to have you here let's start with carnival, shall we whenever a company has to raise capital, particularly one that raised debt not that long ago, you start to wonder. >> very expensive, ty, no doubt about it wonderful to be here in person with you and kelly carnival the last five years is down 85% so i don't want to be using the same you don't want to buy a sinking ship so i'm not touching this you see a overreaction today this is very expensive capital rates but they have 2023 debt maturities they have to meet so that's a tough chart, ty. >> so this is a -- if you own it, what do you do if you don't own it, stay away from it. >> if you own it, i think you stay buoyed here otherwise you sell and don't touch this until you get a little certainty. >> let's see if you get a little more positive on docusign. what about that one? >> i was just over in

full supply for us, which could be a further sign that the auto chip shortage is starting to ease piper sandlerles should remain strong the problem is nxp is underexposed and said, quote, it is best to step away from nxpi at this time they also point to a slowdown in order rates as well. however, nxpi's exposure to to ev should grow fox cohn known for assembling apple products said they are partnering to develop ev platforms. there are two major issues i want to look out for in this report, first one is an issue for a lot of semiconductors, a risk of inventory correction and the second issue that still remains in play, china covid lockdowns across the board so analysts at stiefel say sentiment is bearish on semis. we're expecting $3.37 for earnings per share in revenue should fall in time. near term, not necessarily in the five to eight-month range, though back hover to you, carl. >> a lot of unanswered questions when it comes to semis as we go to break we want to get a check on the airlines. united downgraded today over at susquehanna. operating head winds will likely get worse before getting

one more, piper sandler came out with the neutral radiant stock is going up 310.them today. stuart: how about roku. lauren: they are cut to underperform, they will buy as many televisions and advertisers scaling back. stuart: who buys tv sets these days? they watch things on this. you can't get grandchildren to turn the tv set on. lauren: they don't plug their phone into the tv. stuart: thanks very much. you could own a piece of space history, astronaut buzz aldrin putting space memorabilia on auction including the jacket he wore to the moon. gun manufacturers caught on capitol hill, grilled about their role in mass shootings. byron donald's is on the committee that will do the grilling. maryland's largest school districts will allow students to change gender without telling their parents, the latest example of school leaving parents out of the conversation. ♪♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find r

piper sandler cut the price target from 312 to 352.pending but it is above where it is. lauren: he likes microsoft, he likes their cloud business. stuart: thank you. the white house says this is the strongest economy in history. roll tape. >> when you look at inflation, where we are economically, we are stronger economically than we have been in history. stuart: stronger economically than we have been in history? that's quite a claim. we will get into it. police in texas bring illegal migrants back to the border, police officers. the justice department suing arizona over their new voting law that requires proof of citizenship in order to vote. arizona attorney general mar brnovich is fired up it is here next. finding my way forward with node-positive breast cancer felt overwhelming at times. but i never just found my way, i made it. so when i finished active therapy, i kept moving forward and did everything i could to protect myself from recurrence. verzenio is the first treatment in over 15 years to reduce the risk of recurrence for a

piper sandler and michael can tore is out with a list of companies they believe are at risk of missingseason in terms of guidance from these companies, we'll begin with the banks the week of july 11th. we're just about a week away. >> maria, there's a lot of ways we could gain this market, we could look at it technically, from a valuation standpoint. but valuations are really going to be brought into focus during this earnings season. as you pointed out. a lot of businesses are going to be experiencing margin pressure. higher input costs. higher oil costs. now, these have come down lately. we've seen lumber prices come down 50%. oil's come up to boil a little bit but base metals and other commodities have come down quite a bit. that's not going to show up in second quarter earnings. what's going to show up in the second quarter earnings is a lot of margin pressures. then you have companies like target that have said input costs are higher but we every-inventoried so we'll have to lower the prices that we sell these things to get them off the shelf. so we have this other battle going on

. >>> let's bring in piper, jeff sandler.commentary >> it's been an interesting day. >> i thought it was a decent quarter. i'm a little surprised to see the amount of red on the green, given what they report ed i thik if you look back to the investor day commentary and a few weeks later, that's what we got today. sort of cautious, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, but certainly not the hurricanes that maybe people were afraid of >> what's your take on the stress test, on the buyback no longer being in place, at least for the time being >> not a big surprise. if it goes to zero, if it goes to 120 million, it doesn't move the needle too much the way we thought they would say you're suspending the buyback, it's a statement, i guess, but it was what we were all expecting, really. >> jeff, we've seen a lot of revisions incorporating the prospect of fed rate cuts next year, does that leave to a situation where we're in an environment where net i income is peaking or not? >> yeah, it's interesting. if you look back -- although