harry enton is cnn data reporter and with me now. people's perception of the landscape. where do things stand? >> yeah, i must admit, erin, i am surprised at where things stand. you look at key races like in arizona, in ohio, in pennsylvania, in wisconsin, what do you see in these races, in georgia? you see the democrats ahead in arizona. a new fox news poll out last hour, plus 8 points. georgia, again, democrats up 3 points. ohio. you do see that j.d. vance is ahead but barely ahead. pennsylvania, fetterman up 10, wisconsin up 4, barnes in an average of recent polls. this is not where i thought things were and it speaks to a shifting tide towards the democrats that we've seen nationally. biden's approval rating is up and now we're also seeing in senate races as well. >> which is very significant and mcconnell says something. he's always careful with what he says and it's always very evenly delivered. but he said something important. he said candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome. and on those races you see there, those a