i myself am a powel scholar. i have been working on the project that i've been doing for about three years. i will have a chapter coming out in an edited volume that will be published by the university of virginia press in january of 2022. i very much look forward to sharing that with you all in the future. i'm going to go ahead and pass it over to my colleague and dear friend, kayla anthony. i will pass it over to you. >> thank you so much sam. thank you to mount vernon for asking me to speak today. i'm excited to also share elizabeth's story. i think you will all enjoy it very much. i am executive director for the philadelphia society for the preservation of landmarks. we are an 89 year old nonprofit which has saved -- the powell house, where i am tonight. i am involved with the powel house. it is the ancestral home of samuel and elizabeth powel. we have the -- house which is just around the corner from here in society hill at philadelphia. we have germantown, in historic queensboro. our mission is to not only

information on elizabeth powell. so i know you want to talk about a really lovely portrait of samuel that that we have or that you have. so go ahead and let you explain good old sam. so this is daniel pal. so this is this is the man who's house. we interpret here in philadelphia samuel was he was born actually in 1738 into a wealthy. philadelphia family is a grandfather was a carpenter and a mass quite a bit of wealth, which he inherited in his early 20s. he also well his biggest claim today. i suppose was the fact that he was the last mayor of philadelphia under the british crown and the first mayor of philadelphia in the new republic. he also had his hand in a number of different organizations in philadelphia. he was a member of the library company in philadelphia the american philosophical society the hand in hand fire company and the society for promoting agriculture, which if you're well familiar with washington, you can imagine that was a horse an interesting topic between the two of them. sam will talk about l

jonathan: that was chair powell, jay powell, the federal reserve chairman.he market reaction has not been big. lisa: tom picked up on the front end of the yield curve, because that is the most interesting move out there. reaching close to the year highs. at what point do we get that going beyond? with some kind of credence given to what they are saying? jonathan: have you seen what is happening in europe? lisa: that is the story this money. jonathan: the two-year in germany, 17 basis points. we are through 1% again. tom: the character of the energy prices there are not parabolic. there is math we don't need to go into. they are becoming elements of what steve hankey at johns hopkins talks about, where they shipped from a cute parabola to something different, more urgent. jonathan: do you know what we were on the first day of august? 26 basis points. tom: remember the headline this morning? jonathan: sure, they have an energy problem. mike: it is a dollar problem. the stronger the markets think the fed is going to be, the tougher it is for the europeans, beca

jay powell isn't trying to be paul volcker. mays his goal is just not to be arthur burns. what are your thoughts on that? >> well look, hears the problem and this was the example of the arthur burns policy to stop and go, is that if you do not tackle inflation decisively, you're just going to make it worse and my concern is, you know, the fed is always super- aggressive or has been trained everyone to be super- aggressive in easing as soon as there's any sign of trouble, in terms of in a potential crisis. they slipped through this inflation crisis that is hurting so many millions of people. they've been very slow here. they call themselves being aggressive but they aren't. qt has hardly done anything this summer and supposedly final ly in september we'll see that liquidity coming out. so i hope that not too late to the party again, in terms of making another policy mistake. charles: sven, thank you very much, always appreciate these conversations with you. meanwhile, folks, also today, a wave of economic data out. i want to bri

and jerome powell's thunder. but there is that speech from chairman powell. the idea they are going to get restrictive, they are going to stay there, and they are not going to prematurely ease. that pivot narrative, put it to bed. that was the message from chairman powell. you are seeing equity markets down hard. the s&p down. an even bigger decline for the nasdaq, because there are stocks that are more sensitive to higher interest rates. you are seeing rates move up, though not dramatically. it seems like the equity market has more work to do catching up. we are up on the 10 year treasury yield, while the two year is up a bit more. about four basis points. you were speaking about the euro strength. the translation is a weaker dollar. the dollar index is down by about .1%. guy: we have been waiting for that speech all week. it lasted just eight minutes. just over eight minutes. it was certainly short and to the point. jay powell speaking in wyoming, talking about where monetary policy is going and how long ultimately if he gets up to the terminal rate will it

it is all about this hawkish message jay powell gave us friday. give to the dollar also playing into the fx space. the korean won down around .9%. if i -- it is the biggest decliner in the asia fx space. also keeping an eye the offshore yuan breaking through the key 6.9 level for the first time in two years. that sets us up for a move to the seven level, which our markets live team points out would be extremely important for local markets given their sensitivity to trading flows. what else we are watching, we had that red head crossing the two year yield on the treasury reaching the highest level since 2007. that is also being reflected in the debt space with sovereigns moving as well and the shorter durations. paul: all right, thanks. let's get more on markets and bring an chief risk correspondent for asia and mliv contributor, garfield reynolds. seeing a lot of selling at the moment, some repricing going on. how long do we anticipate this will go on for until markets have correctly priced in the narrative we heard from jay powell on friday? garf

what is powell's biggest challenges for tomorrow?ielle, let me start with you. >> part of powell's biggest challenge, markets factored in too much, they put too much pressure on somebody who already said we're moving away from forward guidance and we're shifting over to a data dependent world. you want me to be specific about 50, 75 basis points or even 100 on september the 21st i'm telling you next friday's payroll report is more important to me in terms of where interest rate policy is going to go. that should shift the onus back to talking about the balance sheet. we heard not near enough about that and powell should be talking about that tomorrow. charles: i will ask you about that later on. nancy what do you think the biggest challenges are there for him tomorrow? >> he has to regain credibility. he has to make it perfectly clear to the investment community his goal is to pull down inflation on a sustained basis. they understand mistakes were made in the 1970s i think increasingly the chorus from the fed is trying to make that p

powell is apparently not going to do. would expect that our thinking on europe for the market is in a similar position now for europe. raise a little faster now in order to have an ability to do something if the situation becomes more tricky to manage. tom: interesting. yields appear to be trying to price in that scenario. italian 10 years up by 16 basis points. the german bund at 1.52. that is a move higher of 13 basis points. talk to us about the opportunities within swiss equities. i look at the benchmark index down about 15% year today. that does not compare particularly favorably. certainly not compared to the ftse 100. what is the case for adding or getting exposure to swiss corporate's in this environment? guest: for those of you who were listening to the first part of the program, i was pointing out that if we did go into a recession we would have more difficulty on some of the cyclical areas of the market as opposed to the more defensive areas of the market. remember that what has been helpful for the market and

what did you glean from powell today? >> he basically undid the mistakes he made on july 27 at his press conference. then he said the fed was oddly close to neutral and they would abandon forward guidance and the market took that as a signal the fed was going to pivot. that they were eventually going to raise rates a couple more times, stop, then cut rates in 2023, launching the big rally we see over the last several weeks. i think what he did was pull back that today. he said wherever we are going to go, we are going to stay the course. so maybe they raise rates 75 basis points more, maybe they raise 200 basis points more, we can debate that. then they will stand and hold on that for a long period of time, in other words no pivot. the market i think was taken it back the fed is not going to be as accommodative as they thought 48 hours ago. taylor: do you agree, is this a market that is sort of getting new signals, new clarity, new guidance today or was this speech a hawkish fed coming out for land front? >> i think that

rishaad: all about jay powell. when you look at the hang seng, we are looking at 1, 2 stocks moving up. all the others are down. if you like the color red, this is your day. let's have a look at what is going on. some market participants having difficulty digesting this idea when the fed gets to whatever the final hike is, they're going to stay there for a while. all delivering a stern and singular message on inflation. sterling, 116 handle. we have not seen this since march 2020. the aussie dollar, july the 19th the last time we saw this. the only stocks industry group up when the csi, consumer staples. it does seem as though going into the risk assets today is the worst idea since jack kennedy said i fancy going to dallas friday. yvonne: is this just a knee-jerk reaction? rishaad: markets have been sanguine. yvonne:yvonne: it all depends on the dollar moves. we continue to see the king dollar waving its head. >> we are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so it comes into better alignment with suppl

or out of powell? i'm assuming both. katie: i would expect a lot of volatility on friday. famous last words. at this point, reading the tea leaves of what the presidents and governors have said, the fed is not close to stopping. it is not time to declare victory on inflation just because we got less bad than expected july numbers. now, i think there is a bit more weight being given to the words, thinking about what we will hear from powell. if he wants to, he could really doubled down and drive home that message -- double down and drive home that message to get markets on the same page. kailey: as katie talks about how we have seen and easing, how much does the chair of the federal reserve or the fomc care about equities? mike: it depends. the fed does not really care about the equity markets going up and down. it is only when there is a systemic issue that the fed feels like it has to get involved. unfortunately, that has happened a lot in the last 20 years. the whole idea of the fed put exists. up to

i think powell's speech was a brilliant move. it was the equivalent of hitting with a quarter-point rate. except he didn't have to do anything other than open his mouth. take mortgage rates. they jumped almost 6% today because of his speech. the wealth effect from lower stock prices gives you decants and slows the economy. powell needs to do that. he's trying to make people do a little fear of spending. he wants you to hunker down and take stock of whether you need anything else. his goal is to be stern and be tough with you about what he will do if we keep spending like crazy, both businesses and people. that is the quickest way to cool down and overheated economy. he is in a tough spot. employment is so high but he's got to do something. those are all good things but let's take this forceful powell at his word point thinks he basically had on friday what i call of volker moment. we are no where we were in the 80s but inflation is bad enough that powell has to act decisively unless things get a lot worse. so, what exactly does p

chair powell stated we are at the neutral rate.it moved insignificant fashion. all the talk started being amplified. that is one reason communication has not been consistent and that has been a problem for the last year. the second issue is, the market is looking at the impact on growth, the pick content -- the potential impact on markets and it remembers the fourth quarter 2018, april members the fed blinking, so he believes one push comes to shove, the fed is going to blink again. >> you don't think the fed will blink anytime soon? >> i don't know, john. i know that they should not blink, but it has been very difficult to call this fed. this fed has failed at analysis, failed at forecast, failed after medication, so it is difficult to say what this fed is going to do. it is easy to say when it should do, but much harder to say what it is going to do and that is when you get this tick -- this disconnect you have been talking about between the markets and the fed. >> larry summers called the comment analytically indefensible. now w

yes, we heard from jerome powell. hawkish stance. we are going to keep things in a certain way for a certain period of time, and before we get to you, i just want to go through sort of what we saw on wall street, tim, because i'm going to ask you to talk us through the reasoning. we started with this deep sea of red on wall street today. we saw the s&p 500, the dow, the naz back really all plunge, the nasdaq composite down about 4%. so tim, what was really the reason behind all of this? i'm not trying to be glib. i'm thinking about it. we heard the chairman say things we have done so far don't seem to be working. we've got to stick with the plan until we start to see it pay off. why did that surprise us so much? >> look, the plan is to be at this longer maybe than the market was expecting. it's not the level of interest rates for the neutral raiders, but the duration of how long the fed is going to be fighting. all of the rhetoric that we had going into the meeting from other fed officials is very clear, and i will say this, said pow

>> it's the same idea that powell gave.if you write down the words "higher for longer" you would have encapsulated what you need to know now. it's again the possibility of rate cuts down the road. there's some difference of where the terminal rate is harker said 3.4, and bullard likes 3.75 to 4. esther george won't say, except she wants it to go higher. so i would pencil in that 3.75 area for where the fed will ultimately go. maybe it stays there for a while with a question that, if that doesn't do enough to solve the inflation problem, it would go higher still >> all right i want to bring in the whole gang rick santelli and bob pisani are joining us give me your take, rick. >> definitely the two-year was around 3.36 when this all occurred, now it's around 3 had the 41 it'sic as high as 3.44-plus. if i had to summarize, it spiked up, but it's coming back down, and 3.43 is the he yield close for mid june, and we can argue the terminal rate is around 3.75, and len ate go to the ten-year, that would in a range around 3.4%. the

nasdaq down 2.25% following the jay powell comments.est says stick with big tech the fourth quarter will be ugly, but has ways to change it. gene muenster is here. apple and i go back as apple and you. apple held up well so far. how can you recommend it here? >> jon, it is the world's greatest company i think that distinction is something i've never given to a company. the reason i believe this can go higher at 250 the next couple years is the core products are necessity. 70% of products are necessities. i also believe they have an opportunity to get into new markets. these are things that can essentially really kick start growth they have a big problem in cupertino with growth. this is a $400 billion company tech companies are growing or dying. i think one of the key themes within cupertino is how to grow that jon, when i think about apple, i think about the strong core business and pull position with the markets of health, auto or ar any of those three can unlock significant market potential as you said, jon, you have known this compa

this is following jerome powell's speech. ecb olli rehn says the bank looks to keep future price growth anchored. consumer prices in the euro zone has been rising at about 10% with a surge in energy costs. policymakers must intervene. >> we have a high inflation, and our mandate is price stability and we will work accordingly. >> they latest quarterly survey says investors are turning more bearish on china. it is down from 3.9% as as a property market and covid outbreaks persist. the first three quarters of next year have been lowered slightly although the median for the whole remains unchanged at 5.2%. u.s. warships have entered the taiwan strait for the first time since nancy pelosi's visit. the u.s. navy said two ships were conducting a routine transit beyond the territorial sea of taipei, ensuring a free and open indo pacific. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. kathleen: still ahead, we have a jackson h

. >>> stocks falling hard as fed chair powell's jackson hole speech sends a chill across wall street we are at session lows the most important hour of trading starts right now welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for sara eisen. let's get straight to our market dashboard for a look at these losses deepening as we go throughout the day the s&p 500, here's a one-year look giving back a decent portion of that rally we got from june. as we see it right now at 4080, this is at a point a lot of folks are looking for. this is the august lows set a couple of weeks ago. a lot of times you make a new low in a given month and it has people reset their expectations for what the trading range is. bigger picture, we never broke that downtrend from the january peak and the rally off the lows got a lot of credence to it. this is where the trenches are dug between the bulls and the bears here, right around these levels now, take a look at high-yield debt part of the message from jay powell seemed intended and making sure that financial conditions don't get too loose, the markets don't get t

fed chair powell, saying he has a credibility problem. the word transitory hangs around him. is he restoring that credibility, scott, or do you think he's trying too hard, perhaps, by invoking history lessons that maybe don't apply as much today? >> the fed did have a credibility problem. they still do have one, deirdre, but i think the last couple of months, the last couple of meetings they're building that back, and, you know, clearly we have very, very high inflation that's going to take some time to come down the fed's more than willing, as they've stated many, many times, to give up growth to get there we know that the unemployment rate's going to go up. we're looking for about 5.3% on the unemployment rate by the end of next year you know, the fed may not -- you know, they'll -- they won't say they want the unemployment rate to go up but they'll hem and ha around it with other verbiage. the fed has to attack demand they can't do anything about the supply chain disruption, they can't do anything about russia invading ukraine the only thing they can do is try to dampen de

you spoke about the tough crowd about powell was facing. did he managed to convince well, i actually believe that we're hearing more of the same from jerome powell, but that may have been enough to convince some that the fed is going to tame inflation. one of those names was larry summers, who is the former's treasury secretary of the united states. he said today that jerome powell is on the right course. now let's remember, he was part of the tough crowd we were talking about yesterday. when jerome powell went to jackson hole last year and declared in his speech that inflation is transitory, that it's acute that it won't linger on. we know now that that isn't true, and this speech may be bringing people on to his side. now let's remember there are still those critics of the fed who believe that this is a supply side crisis, meaning the fed can't do anything about that and a hawkish continuation of into interest rate hikes. well, it's gonna damage the economy without really getting to the heart of the issues of inflation in the united state

miss powell and others were, so why not try what miss powell and others were proposing. do you remember anything along those lines being said about president trump? >> i do. that sounds right. >> i think it got to the point where the screaming was completely, completely out there. people walking in, late at night, they had a long day. what they were proposing i thought was nuts. >> i'm gonna categorically describe it as you guys are not tough enough. or maybe i'll put it another way, you're a bunch of policies, excuse the expression. i'm almost certain the word was used. >> kept on standing up and standing around screaming at me. as a certain point i had it with him. i yield back. either come over or sit your effing aspect down. >> the president and the white house team went upstairs to the residence, in the big parlor where you can have meetings in a conference room. >> they call it the yellow oval. >> yes, exactly. the yellow oval office. i always called it the upper. i'm not exactly sure where the group went. maybe the roosevelt room. i stayed in the cabinet room, whi

everybody expected such a hawkish statement by powell. some did for sure, but a lot didn't, and take a look at where it is. i think the delusional aspect of what some people are saying really has to stop they have to think, be a little introspective and realize it's been free money not just in the u.s. but around the world for the longest period ever. there's no time like this in history, none, period, end of story, and so everybody got addicted companies, investors, meme players, aped, got addicted to free money and turning that, getting off that addiction, like any addiction, is painful, a lot of bumps in the road and it's not a one-way trip >> he said painful it was going to be painful he definitely said it was going to be painful. >> it will be. let me say one more thing. >> go ahead. >> the market got to 18 times, in any environment that is expensive. so you've got to overshoot on the downside so there's no basis for being bullish here, congratulations to the bulls, who caught the bear market rally, and thinking that's redemption. it

juliette: wait huge jay powell was going to be hawkish -- we knew jay powell was going to be hawkish. that boj and pboc is weighing into asia. the msci asia-pacific with the biggest two your drop since june. and a drop in bond markets, the aussie 10-year up by about 10 basis points. the yen could get to one point -- 140 now. and the boj with a stronger case for the on short currency showing concern about the continued weakness in the yuan, which is at a two year low, breaking through 6.9 for the first time in two years. let's have a look at what we are hearing from the bank of korea. kathleen spoke to the governor at jackson hole and they have indicated they will keep hiking, too. they won't start -- stop tightening until they see inflation peaking at about 3%. the korean won has fallen in the most in about 11 weeks. manus: it really is an asian fx collapse, relative to g10. the aussie 68.43, is going down, make sure you hedge. economists are turning more bearish on the outlook for the chinese economy, downgrading the forecast for 2022. it is now projected to grow 3.5%, down from 3.9%

he said today that jerome powell is on the right course. now let's remember he was part of the tough crowd we were talking about yesterday. when jerome powell went to jackson hole last year and declared in his speech that inflation is transitory, that it's acute that it won't linger on. we know now that that isn't true, and this speech may be bringing people on to his side. now let's remember there are still those critics of the fed who believed that this is a supply side crisis meeting. the fed can't do anything about that and a hawkish continuation of into interest rate hikes. well, it's gonna damage the economy without really getting to the heart of the issues of inflation in the united states. just picking up on that markets, of course, didn't seem to like it. they slid down after a pallet speech. but what sort of clue is, has he now given about the feds policy direction from here on well, they certainly are clues. he's not being very specific. for example, at the top we heard, he mentioned that slower growth. i'm having to bear slower

investors brace for chairman powell. the big issue, counting down to jackson hole. >> jackson hole. >> jackson hole. >> jackson hole next week. >> that is the next event to watch. >> all bets are off. >> it is a tricky situation. >> the fed's job is not done. >> there is a lot of work for jay powell to do. >> fed chair powell saying we are close to neutral. >> every governor comes out and says something that is a contradiction. >> there is a tug-of-war from a macro standpoint. >> why quit now? >> 8.5% inflation, it looks different. jonathan: joining us now is a fantastic lineup, meghan swiber, luke hickmore and troy gayeski powell. what are you looking for? meghan: i wish we could say we were going to get a clear message from pal next week but with another cpi print to go and another payroll print to go before september, we think he will be endorsing a message of data dependence and not willing to give the market the forward guidance it needs. jonathan: luke hickmore, a quote, jackson hole might be boring, let's leave it

edward, are they happy with what powell said? the message that the markets are reacting to, was that what they wanted? >> well, this is what needed to be said to set expectations going forward. then the reaction to that was expected once those words came out of the fed chairman's mouth. we were expecting a big speech, we got a very big speech, complete with warnings of pain for americans but also for businesses, this was the most direct speech that i have heard the fed chairman give since he's taken office. >> without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone, in particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. the burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those least able to bear them. >> now, that possibly means we could be looking at another year or so of interest ra rates thate pretty high and the federal reserve chairman adding at some point the pace of increasing might need to slow adding it might be appropriate at the next meeting t

we want to hear chair powell direct that tomorrow.ey think labor is higher relative to the prior cycle? how much pain they willing to take in terms of the trade-off between employment and inflation? kriti: how much are they willing to take, how much pain? can we talk inflation, there are estimates that it will go to 3% or 4% next year. isn't that concerning, the case? -- the pace? brett: the fed has a job to do. as george said, inflation is job number one. they want to see evidence. it is not just getting to three. is going back to 2%. as michael noted, the stickier portions of inflation are going to remain for some time. they need the fed to get real rates into positive territory in order to bring down inflation over time. the market has certainly come a long way since the july 27 meeting. expectations have risen to 3.8% for next year, up from 3.3% in the wake of the july meeting. the peds's messaging has started to get through, but there are upside risks to this. there's the other thing we want to hear from powell's risk management

investors anxiously awaiting fed chair powell's big speech at jackson hole tomorrow.t a transformation into a dove would look like for powell and what that would mean for your money plus, the peloton ceo compares the company to turning a cargo ship as it tries to evolve it's not the only company hoping to pull off a transformation as demand for its product wanes a post-pandemic reinventio

well, jerome powell indicated today that it - powell indicated today that it is in that for the longerd that he would or the federal reserve would consider increasing rates until they see an impact on inflation, so, that to me sounds as if, if necessary, this is going to go on for a while longer stop of course, there is always this lagging effect between interest rate increases and inflation and, so, iwould rate increases and inflation and, so, i would assume this is something that will continue for a while longer and this is also what i am hearing from finance achieves at large us corporate. their expectation is very much that this environment of raising rate and increasing financing costs for companies will continue for a while longer, which is why many companies have actually taken action and refinance earlier this year and last year because they knew this was likely to come and also because the expectation is that this rate raising environment we are currently in is not necessarily going to abate anytime soon. talk us through the impact of this on businesses and also on american fa

if you look at the past rhetoric from powell, he is slightly dovish.y have a bit of dovish tone versus the other fed governors on the hawkish side. actually, i think the language will be very balanced coming-out of the next couple of weeks, into the fomc. i would not read too much into it. i think the data will speak for itself, and the key driver of decisions for the september fomc. yvonne: do you see any signs that the yield curve could steepen in the next weeks or so? mandy: i think so. there has been massive short positioning in the front and towards jackson hole this week and i think that could reverse. i don't think there is significant guidance coming out of jackson hole, so that could reverse. i guess since we are data dependent, any rarely in treasuries, is it down to just a short squeeze? mandy: definitely. not sustainable. yvonne: what about the dollar moves we have seen? mandy: looking at the dollar move is pretty interesting because if you see the u.s. yield converge into global yield , the dollar still strengthened. what is happening is,

powell put a cow among the pigeons. for whatever reason, markets wanted to believe in the fed pivot. they took some of the softer inflation reads we have seen and softer growth numbers and extrapolated from that that the fed would turn on its heels. that is different to what the fed has been telling us. what they said clearly is we need consistent signs inflation is back to target before we change our policy. they have not seen that yet. in my mind, it wasn't that big a surprise that powell stuck to the hawkish tone and keep rates until we're confident inflation is back at target. i wasn't surprised the market is gearing up for the fed pivot. as you said, we don't think this is happening any time soon >> i guess investors believe there would be some level in unemployment rate it has to get to where bring central banks have to feel comfortable raising rates. if you look at the numbers over the weekend, the number one focus is taming inflation even if there is a so-called tradeoff isobel from the ecb introduced this comme

a lot will depend on what chair powell will say. not as much about how may rate hikes there will be but also the economic consequences of these rate hikes. we have seen that curve steepen and it shows how complex it is. where bonds are going, the shape of the yield curve will be a major focus for investors. shery: we will be live at jackson hole later this week for that crucial powell speech as well as interviews with fed presidents. let's get over to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: the australian prime minister says inflation is a key priority for his government. headline inflation is running at the fastest pace in 21 years in the second quarter and is forecast to accelerate even more by the year end. he echoed advice from the treasury department that inflation will not go past 10%. singapore is repealing a colonial era law that criminalizes sex between men. it is something most singaporeans will now accept. he stopped short of recognizing same-sex unions, adding the constitution will be amended to add the defin

powell will speak at 10:00 a.m. eastern.rom the actual conference, to find out what the buzz is. what are you expecting to hear from jay powell? >> i'm expecting him to try to tow the line as tight as he can but he has to come can out and say that they're going to continue to be diligent about at fighting inflation. we have two down gdp quarters. we have inflation still high. i don't think it's over. there's this common expectation this will just naturally go down and we just don't buy that. so there's a word out there, i don't hear enough, that we have to start thinking about. that's stagflation. and so if powell's not careful, we're going to find ourselves in a place that we haven't seen in decades. so i do think he will be a little more hawkish than maybe what the market has thought over the last couple weeks. maria: yeah. explain stagflation for our audience, leo. because i know that that's when you've got inflation but also when you've got an economy that's slowing, right, stagflation. >> exactly. you have an economy th

but i will give chairman powell some credit.ort to the point which is what was needed, and he had to make it clear, based on friday's markets, that inflation was the priority, and even though people say inflation, it has been a downtick and so forth, who knows whether that is going to be persistent or not. that's going to take time. in the meantime, you don't want the market getting ahead of itself, thinking that the fed is going to back off its inflation-fighting stance. and i point out, the second thing that's been brought up during the conference where chairman powell spoke was the fact that we're also, they are also involved in quantitative tightening, so there's liquidity issues that i think they're very much aware of, and that has to be balanced as well, and perhaps the market is picking up on that as well. >> i wonder, do you think the efficacy of the speech came from, as you say, it was brief and to the point and not a lot of nuance, or was it about the fact that it was at jackson hole or was it about the fact that there

what will jay powell say to the market? esther george is readying the bond market for 4% rates at a glide path. we will hear more from esther george and kathleen hays from jackson hole in just a moment. a quick snapshot of risk. stocks are facing the prospect of 4%. reasons to be bullish. higher wages is not good news for the equities story and we are leaning far too much on cpi. the reasons to be bullish are than a bit thin. dax gone with a rally of .4%. have a look at the bond markets. we are focused on 50, 75 basis points, but you have a yield curve which has bounced from the -50 to 73 and this is significant. this suggests that perhaps the worst has passed in the bond market. the dollar remains resilient. 18% overvalued on a relative basis, relative effective exchange basis. the past 10 years. is the dollar exhausted and something that may come into play? what will jay powell communicate to the market? we are going to the higher ground and we are going to hang out there for a while. kathleen hays is with me from jackson

powell can't be this direct though. when he walks through the shopping mall, he wants to see not help wanted signs, but for rent signs! you know, the paper that they put in the mall when the store goes under? i mean, i am a 40 regular. boy, that would end this. we should have him stroll through it. now as the son of a mother who sold lingerie on the seventh floor and a father who sold a form of pants, i know how fragile these retail stores can be. you could get a real domino effect if one of these stores goes under. same thing with restaurants. powell needs to shrink the sin . i don't know. i can't think of a restaurant that is as big as bed bath and beyond. that said, there is nothing like one of these vacant bed bath locations to bring down the whole strip mall. it's the easiest way for powell to beat inflation. even if bed bath and beyond is in business for longer than it deserves. the second thing to end inflation, even though he will never admit to it out loud, he needs a collapse, for heaven sakes. i understand th

it is that day where we are getting in that speech from jay powell. the hawkish commentary from bullard and esther in wyoming but the markets are looking through this. use our games yesterday and there is some diversions when it comes to features stateside and what has happened here in europe so far. the futures pointing up and the u.s. futures pointing lower. you have yields from the two to the tens stateside. we continue to monitor what is happening in the energy space and we will break that story down for you. james bullard coming out and saying he favors frontloading and esther george saying we could be above 4% as the fed tries to get inflation down. bullard also saying that the markets might be underestimating the need for the fed to stay longer to pull inflation down. it will be a stickiness possibly that will hang on longer. the cac in france getting 0.6%. let's see how things are playing out across assets and features stateside. -- futures stateside. we have gains of about 0.4% from the s&p yesterday. a pretty solid day across u.s. markets. e

we want to zoom in on the reference that chairman powell made. something the markets have compared to 70's, but i am concerned about what happens after the 80's rid their recessions in the first part of the decade. are we concerned about a repeat of that dynamic. >> i think that is why chair powell referenced it several times to recognize the fed is looking at that, they have learned a few lessons. one is that as said, they are not going to relent until the job is done. that was an absolute message that i'm not sure has been offered before. second, start and stop policy that we've experienced acting now be resolutely and better. he admitted there would be pain, which is as close to a recession's were ever going to get. it does suggest that chair powell is taking on the lessons, and he is intent on implementing them here. >> and other part of the speech, is that they will hike to restrictive territory and stay there for a while. a while seems like a vague term. is this a story of months, years, decades? it will depend on the data, inevitably. none

that is who powell hopes he can make his legacy be. neil: markets and stocks down across the board, utilities were escaping is that but i could be wrong but the fact that it is so widespread, wouldn't the market instead like what he is doing, if you're going to be vigilant on inflation and this is our existence even if it slows things down a little it is worth that, used to be a view of this, what do you know? >> in the long run, the markets appreciate the fed is trying to restore credibility and order to the markets and the bond market, the 10 year appreciated that, the financial markets want the easy money, a lot of wishful thinking going on, cpi inflation picked up, everything is going to be fine, the world is going to be easy and the fed will come to our rescue, that is misguided and will be different as we get into the back half of the year but the fed restore incredibly is the most important thing for the country. neil: flashing it here, rates will rise until the job is done. what defines the job being done. >> the job being done

andrew: jerome powell happened. the miami times, research notes this week, he was more hawkish than expected and the market was not ready for that. i don't think the market was ready for brevity either. he finished his talk at 10:10, the market was hanging in adhesive abruptly stopped and the market immediately tagged 10-11. carleton: we had major indices but what can investors expect going forward? andrew: the worst week since mid-june. we had four rate increases, 2.5%, but the market expected four more rate increases and we also had two rate increases of 0.75% so the market was hoping we were done with giant rate increases. the september meeting is leica coin flip whether we will have a 75 basis . point increase. maybe it will be delayed. we are in this sort of malaise while we digest these hawkish opinions. what it means for investors and markets, the growth trade might be dead so between june and august when we were all feeling good the nasdaq was up 23%. call it a ball market may be, don't back to prior peaks b

what will it take for powell to right the ship here?think he'll keep his cards close to his would-be vest and the fed announcement on the 21st of september will be where we get that investigation. there's just too much data, too many to happen between now and then, lauren. lauren: but a lot of people, including james bullard are saying just front load. inflation is too big of a problem and it is right in front of us, 8.5% inflation. just dot 75, tell the market you're doing the 75 in september and take it from there. >> well, i think he's doing what he does and that is pound the table, and he can be an advocate for that. it's the chair's job to drive toward a consensus. much the same as that open plain out there, he has acted a little bit like a cowboy on the horse and try to rustle all the cattle into a pen to get them to agree on one thing. you know, i don't think they get any extra points for being early and wrong with this decision. that's why they need to wait for the data, and that's why they took forward guidance off the table at

francine: what are you expecting from jay powell this week? esty: i think there is a little too much expectation he might sound more dovish than he has recently. the minutes of the last meeting were interpreted as a little more dovish just because there was an acknowledgment that the fed will look at the impact of all of the rate hikes they have already done on the economy and we know there is a 3-6 month lag before you have that impact. i think the risk at the moment is that he is on the more hawkish side. think the fed wants to re-emphasize they are not done hiking. the pivot is not so much just going back to more normal hikes. i think we are on that way and past the most aggressive part of the tightening cycle but he could sound a little more hawkish and they definitely want to continue to anchor the long-term inflation expectations. tom: the rhetoric from officials from the fed the last few days has pointed in that direction. a reiteration of the aggressive approach. if we do get a steer in terms of 75 basis points in september and with al

is that something that jay powell has to address in his speech? >> i think that the focus on transitory has been important. we don't have this great flow of information. i think that the run of the federal reserve and the central bank is to ensure that shocks that can become our actually becoming temporary and the action of the fed can ensure this will happen. cracks one of the issues for jay powell and his colleagues is that marcus just don't seem to quite believe the fed is ready to do this. maybe bond yields rise but then they rally again. is it a lack of credibility? is it bad communication? will it be harder to convince people they can get the job done now? >> we are in a very unique situation. they are all coming at the same time. we have the pandemic, we have supply chains, we have food. some things the fed can do very little about. the fed wants to be assured it does not create unhealthy credibility and unhealthy stability. the fed needs to be much more ahead of the curve. i would not worry about shooting to build up credibility and reduce

it culminates tomorrow morning with powell. we will see you tomorrow >>> countdown to powell. the street rally and the speech from the fed chairman in jackson hole. brace for a healthy dose of tough love. shares of the firm getting howard hammered. we will go inside the numbers. later peloton is spinning its wheels. a big downgrade in the housing sector. this is fast money live. on the desk tonight. we are going to start with the countdown. jerome powell and under 17 hours. the fed chairman will speak in jackson hole wyoming. investors are keyed in for any signs with how aggressive the feds will be with its rate hikes. the nasdaq led the game up more than 1.6%. the market is on pace for a second straight week of losses. what do markets need to hear from the central bank chairman tomorrow? karen i would love to start with you this evening. what are we anticipating and hearing? given that the market gave a runoff. hoping for bullish news. >> reporter: i am not hoping or expecting bullish news. so much was made did he pivot or did he not? i do not know how much was traded to toda

powell's speech.he redacted mar-a-lago search by the way, the affidavit for that will be released by noon today as you see the markets moving slightly higher ahead of the opening bell , but back to the affidavit. will american people actually get the answers they deserve? is it all going to be blacked out? well, we're going to bring you the very latest on that issue. california's governor newsom is pledging $100,000 to unseat florida's governor desantis. listen to this. >> because i like charlie criss , and i don't like bullies. you want to ask why? i don't like bullies and people that talk down to people. ashley: he doesn't like people who talk down to people? hmmm. okay, a bully, i'm going to ask florida congressman byron donald s what he makes of that, next. ♪ ♪ this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more

jay powell's speech.ng us from jackson hole is michael mckee way understand the weather is better and the view is still beautiful. what happened between now -- what happens between now and 10:00 a.m. tomorrow when the chairman speaks? michael: after we finished mopping up the rain. this blew down a bunch of trees and other stuff. there's a dinner tonight that kicks off for the host of the meeting, the president of the kansas city fed will give a short speech which is a welcome to jackson hole. then tomorrow morning we get the main event which is the keynote speech, first thing on the agenda from jay powell. after that they get into various papers that are prevented presented, this is an academic conference. the fed chairman speaking here. most of this will be theoretical and they help these guys think about things and long-run but not about policymaking. guy: you would've thought with some sort of rainstorm going on that some sort of hat would be a good idea. i'm sure you've got it covered. how abnormal i