on the desk tonight, carter worth, mike khouw and bonawyn joins us carter, what are you looking at? >> right, so to your point, sort of a dull week for energy share, the sector, but of course it's the only one that's had a really good year, right, up some 45%. let's look at a few charts and figure it out together the first is a relative strength line or ratio. it's the performance of energy versus the s&p and what we know of course is that energy, having underperformed badly in 2018, 2019, 20'20 has had a big 2021 d 2022 it's all the hallmarks of a bearish to bullish reversal. and i think there's more to go now let's look at energy it ever is next is a five-year chart. it matches the actual sector from standard and poor's and we are able to break out to new highs. we fell back to trend, and now we're re-approaching the highs and finally, make, again, new highs. and then the here and now chart. this is xle again. and what we know is through a very well-defined minor uptrend in effect since the june-july lull, and we've bounced off that trend line well, repeatedly, and to higmy eye, w

and we've already seen some nice moves here, bonawyn. >> you need to be mindful of where you kind of position yourself, stops or trigger points if you will in terms of where you want to get long a name speaking of beta, this one is actually quite high beta, and that's the reason i've chosen this over say a name like xle. i'm looking at the xop november 145-170 call spread, and i also have the twist the option to finance this with a down-side short sided put. we're going to sell the nov at 170. so about three and a third you're 107% of spot. so we have this down market and it's a situation where analysts are still constructive in terms of earnings revisions. this is, you know, an area where you can kind of try to buy on a f back rather than a risk define if you want to take advantage of higher volatility, you can make it even cheaper. >> what's your take here on bonawyn's xop trade? >> i own xop right now that would be a risk that you'd face that you would own it at a lower price than where it's currently trading. obviously, if i owned it, that's the same as saying i'd be willing to b

on the desk tonight, carter worth, and bonawyn eison. let's get right to it. the energy sector has garnered a lot of attention since the beginning of the summer. so, carter, what are you looking at? >> to your point, sort of a dull week for energy shares, but of course, it is the only one that has had a really good year, up some 45%. let's look at a few charts and figure it out together. the first is, simply, a relative strength line or ratio. it is the performance of energy versus the s&p 500. what we know, of course, is energy, having underperformed badly in 2018 to 2020. that pattern, in and of itself, has all the hallmarks of a bearish to bullish reversal. whatever you want to call it. i think there is more to go. let's look at energy itself. the next is a five year chart of the xle. that is the etf that matches the actual sector from standard & poor's. we know, just at the beginning of this year, they were able to break out to new highs and fell back to trent. now, we are reproaching the highs. to my mind, that is set up well to break out. then, the here

bonawyn, what do you think of lilly? no argument in terms of the valuation it is expensive. but when you start to drill down into the numbers, if you look at $25 billion, you look at 20% net margins and shares outstanding and that gets you about $5 a share before slapping the multiple on there. and if you look at penetration that they would need in order to achieve these numbers, they're predicating their guidance on a 1% to 5% penetration in terms of obesity cases. so while it is aggressive from a valuation standpoint, the underlying assumptions are making a compelling case. >> coming up, getting blocks shares sinking as analysts lose interest in the move as options traders piling in. we have the details next. >>> and throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our contributors here is the ceo of project verity. >> it is very important to be proud of my heritage and proud of who i am. we are uniquely strong and we need to be proud of that and show case our strengths. in the workplace and at home from my own upb

on the desk tonight, carter worth, and bonawyn eison. let's get right to it. the

you want to sell fcx copper not so shiny. >> bonawyn. >> take a look at pvi. >> jeff mills?, surprise i'm a seller of apple here i think it breaks 150. there's a catchup trade to the downside. >> have a great weekend, diageo might help. >> that does it for us don't go anywhere. options option is up next. e's in the perfect cup of coffee and her museum of personal computers. and you can find her, and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork.com power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market ♪♪ welcome to life in the new open web. where innovation keeps pace with imagination and the future arrives daily. viant is pioneering a new approach to media combining ai with human insight. creating new ways to reach customers and new standards of measurement, both on and offline. viant. built for the new open web. built for now. >>> it is friday, and that means it is time for options action. the dow closing at a new low

it is shocking to hear, bonawyn, bill simon say if it last as week it will be terrible for the economy. >> he said that and mentioned there's already some fallthrough. the products, detail, logistics or security, things of that nature, really make this more complicating adding fuel to the fire is a lack of capacity within trucking it's not just pricing. no argument there. even if you could pay the price the capacity isn't there so what's the substitute there's no way around inflation in the short term if this is not nipped in the bud. >> very little reaction to this. i wonder if you think there's danger to this trade in particular >> well, i think there has to be especially given bill's comments and just understanding how the situation could evolve we don't nope how quickly it will be solved or what the impact will be on the retailers and their ability to meet d demand this might be totally off base but i'm wondering if certain retailers are better positioned than others. does that serve as some sort of a cushion come holiday season where they can work some of that off, meet some of th