joining me now with more is the former president of the kansas city federal reserve, president thomas hoenignd, thomas, it's great to see you. thanks very much for being here. >> thank you. maria: that was some serious expectations of inflation dropping. what's your take of the pce deflater going all the way down to the 3% range within 3-6 months? >> well, i think anything's possible, but there is a lot of inflation embedded in the economy right now. and i just -- not just with the energy, but across a large group of goods. and i noticed that cathy says that there's a big inventory buildup and so forth. but at the same time, i think inflation is pretty much embedded, and powell is committed to trying to bring it down. now, i think the tightening is more than people are expecting. i think with the next 75 basis points if they increase it in september plus the quantitative tightening that they are taking in terms of shrinking their balance sheet which will take a lot of liquidity out of the market, you will shut down the economy -- or you will, i should say, constrain the economy pretty signif

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thomas hoenig, thank you very much appreciate the time today. >> take care >>> all right. did get a bounce around the top of the hour. s&p 500 down about 2.3%. the low was closer to 3650 the dow is now off by 634, down more than 800. the nasdaq still down 2.4% and the russell 2000 down 3% up next, we'll take a closer look at the action in the energy sector, by far the worst performer. as we head to a break, check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com. as you would expect it is all macro focused. the ten-year yield getting the most interest followed by the s&p 500, the dow, e thtwo-year yield and the nasdaq we'll be right back. this is connecting all your team with a shared point of view. this is the system you built moving from concept to customer. this is how. airtable. ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward

maria: what thomas hoenig told us yesterday former president kansas city federal reserve what he said> i think its, highly likely it's going to be a pretty serious recession, assuming that they stay with this, effort to bring inflation down through interest rate increases, i think we are just getting started in the hard part of all this. maria: a last read on inflation this morning before september federal reserve meeting august ppi producer price index out in 15 minutes' time, do you think we are going to see as -- severe an inflationary story as we saw yesterday? >> well, as you know two are related but not that closely tied to you -- hard to say we are clearly going to get a number not acceptable whether on target or worse or better still going to be a high number maria. and as hoenig said the hard part just started, we still have a negative fed funds rate most of the time things don't end till fed gets interest rates fed funds above the inflation rate, still a big number in wrong zwreeks i am with adam johnson. >> bob i am curious wonderful to get perspective this morning, if you

federal reserve kicked off day one september meeting this morning former kansas city president thomas hoenig here joined me last week on this program here was his thoughts after that hotter an expected consumer price index was released. >> i think highly likely it is going to be a pretty serious sfleegs thomas joining us to talk about the red flag on recession thomas hoenig, august housing date out in 20 minutes' time building permits out 8:30 we have numbers market reaction you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. . earn 3% cash back on dining including takeout with chase freedom unlimited. so, it's not a problem at all. you guys aren't gonna give me the fake bill fight? c'mon, kev. you're earning 3% cash back. humor me. where is my wallet? i am paying. where is my wallet? i thought i gave it to you. oooohhh? oh, that's not it either. no. no. stop, i insist. that was good though. earn big time with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours. ♪ here goes nothing. hey greg. uhh...hello? it's me, your heart! really? yes

maria: had no, no, no, no, thomas hoenig. hold on, thomas hoenig was the one descenter in 2010.hen the federal reserve was throwing money at the system. >> fair point. i was using they as the imperial they, the federal reserve. i stand corrected. i think we'll have rougherring sledding ahead. i think the fed's narrative is mired in its incompetence. i think they ought to take away the muzzles from everybody except the chairman. all of the different opinions as you so correctly pointed out fracture the market, instills a lack of confidence rather than the opposite. i think we'll have tough times ahead of us. the earnings slowdown is very real. the best companies typically, if you look through history, power through this. i bought apple and microsoft yesterday, i bought a little bit here and there. i wanted to go fishing. i wanted to put a line in the water. that's what history says you do when you have big down days and things are put on sale. maria: mike, what about you? are there places to hide? i want to point out housing. the 30 year mortgage rate now is 6.28%. i think if you

let's go to kansas city now and speak to thomas hoenig.he federal reserve bank of kansas city, he sat on the fed's rate—setting committee for two decades between 1991 to 2011. he's now with the mercatus center — a free—market think tank. your reaction to this week's's news, some thought they might go even further with a i% hike, did they do the right thing? i think they did the right thing, it was pretty much telegraphed they would do three quarters of a point, 75 basis points had they done more it would have surprised the market and they didn't want to do that but they didn't want to do that but they did it the market so there is more to come, there is going to be a slowdown with the economy which is unavoidable when raising rates this fast, and also remember, with the rate increase continued to do quantitative tightening by reducing the balance sheet, thatis reducing the balance sheet, that is a lot of stress on the economy right now so 75 is the right number, and there is more to come. he right number, and there is more to come. ., , ri

: electricity up 15.8% that is a serious number cheryl, thank you very much i want to bring in thomas hoenigenior fellow thomas hoenig we are honored to have back once a given to react toness numbers you heard the headline numbers we were expecting a gain 8.1%, worse than that at 8.3% what are you he zeroing in on, on this report thomas as far as what is most important? >> well i think, in nation numbers i mean these -- these food prices electric prices these are all you fundamentals we are seeing those continue to go up i think will see those go up for awhile just because of the embedded population more a part of the economy. plus the -- say what you will the fed still has a ways to go on interest rate increases. and i think that is going to take time that lags so we're looking for i think inflation to continue. whether greater than expected in the next two months i don't know but still going to remain reasonably high i also would point out, that you know behind this will be the numbers in terms of wages that is going to be i think also, high. and that is going to drive further precise incr

wednesday when fed finishes two-day meeting the next one november 1, former federal reserve official thomas hoenigoined me on this program last week after hottie than expected cpi report stayed expect a severe recession on the horizon. watch. >> i think it's, highly likely it is going to be a pretty serious recession we are just getting are started in the hard parted of all this. maria: joining me piper sandler chief global economist nancy lazar reaction to what you hear from the president president of the kansas city federal reserve what are you expecting ahead of the fed meeting? >> yeah, we are also expecting a recession question is when is it starting it could be starting right now we think that is a real possibility, fed needs to raise interest rates considerably given not just the hot core cpi but still elevated wage inflation signs labor market is very, very tight, unemployment claims are declining, suggesting that if anything the labor markets are tightening further even though slight uptick in the unemployment rate august but here as we move into september, unemployment claims are actuall

david lebovitz from jpmorgan, thomas hoenig, charlie bobrinskoy, mona

thomas hoenig was a dissenters in 2010. in 2020 robert kaplan was a dissenter.video company down after an announcement that a hacker made one of the biggest leaks in video game history. dozens of videos were posted in an online message board over the week end. the hacker is looking to neglnegotiate a deal, asking the company to contact them. take two interactive software shares down 30% year-to-date, this morning down 6 and-a-half percent. it is a busy monday morning. stay with us. calling out bidens' bad policies, miami mayor frances suarez is here on the new op-ed and the best way to help americans that the biden administration seems to be ignoring. plus, honda tells employees to give some of their bonuses back. can you imagine? the bewildering reason coming up. stay with us. this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside m

it there fantastic panel we so appreciate your time, ryan payne mark tepper stephanie pomboy, thomas hoenig you will do last, cheryl casone thank you. we will see you tomorrow stu: good morning, everyone. the number is moving the market big time. the consumer price index went up 8.3% in the last year. in august, it went up 0.1% compared to july. that means the pace of inflation is slowing but only just a little. later on today, the president addresses the inflation number and he'll probably try for a victory lap on the grounds that inflation is coming down, but we will have above 6% inflation for sometime to come. look at market reaction, we're talking serious selloff. the dow down 575 points and we're likely to open the market this morning and worse damage on the nasdaq, down 360, that's a better than 2% selloff. plenty of red ink this morning. bitcoin, same story all the way down to 21,457. interest rates, very interesting what's going on there. the ten year -- the yield on ten year treasury absolutely surging on that cpi number. you're now at 3.42%, and the two year way above 3.5% level.