will we get any change in policy until kuroda actually leaves office? long way to go for the situation but we might not. we need to realize that the boj is in a very special situation because they import 70% of jgb's. this means any mark to market type loss, because the yield curve moves up on the long end, if they do not raise rates anytime soon, first thing would be to guided to a higher level. there is going to be losses for anyone holding these high-priced instruments, jgb is at 0.10 or whatever, so the boj in a way it will inflict pain on itself, number one. there is a reason beyond stubbornness, therefore the question is what can corroded do -- kuroda due to impact his own boj balance sheet. yvonne: if japan is weighing everybody down in asia, what is the playbook for central banks out there, is what the philippines are doing fighting to keep the peso at a certain level a fools errand? >> there are two types of social banks, those fighting for the same ict market, south korea and taiwan, and yen-type driven, like japan. and then those that are com

what do we expect kuroda to ask?t kind of shift would they make, how big of a step they make, and what will he say? how will he explain it? >> in this meeting, i expect that there is no change, but going forward if the inflation rate becomes higher and if the wage becomes higher, then there is a basis to argue that in the long run maybe we can start raising higher long-term interest rate, so we depends upon the data, but i think the order of change would be ycc and policy rate and qt. kathleen: but not today. thank you so much for joining us, professor at columbia university. plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: taking a look at trading this friday's session when it comes to westerly of watching the likes of mcquarrie topping estimates, we saw volatility in global trading, particularly in commodities. brother asx 200 all by .4 of 1% after the big selloff across tech in particular overnight. new zealand trading flat at the moment. we are seeing interesting potential when it co

governor kuroda i think still speaking to the press right now. the dax down 1%.rs on the move driven by what companies are out with earnings. technology under pressure in the u.s. that is filtering through here in europe. i remind you it is not only amazon, but also apple. earlier in the week, we had others that were much worse than expected. basic resources down. real estate and technology down. telecom, the biggest gain or. let's get more on the markets as stocks drop in asia and europe and the yen fluctuates. we are joined by the head of em economics. david, thank you for joining us. what do you make of china right now? economically, what will they try to achieve? >> the one thing that absolutely seems true about the people's congress, the party congress is that xi jinping's position has been massively consolidated. the standing seems to be full of his loyalists. what is he going to do with this power? the economy seems to be crying out for additional stimulus on the one hand. but there have been numerous occasions a lot of stimulus, but stimulus has been with

governor kuroda will be stepping down in the spring.by up to the next governor about when it should change and when you think it will change? >> the what we look at it is independent of the governor. you have to look at the critical data. one is what is happening in wages to see whether we aren't seeing wages that would roughly correspond to the inflation target, and also we are aware that inflation is rising, headline inflation is above 2%. core inflation is heading 2%, meaning excluding food and fuel. those are two important data points to look at. kathleen: when there is a new governor, does that in some ways opened the door for boj to look at it and say, yes, it is time to start moving in the direction, which governor kuroda has never said? >> is quizzical development -- coincidental development we have seen in the spring. wage negotiations are important for regular workers, the employees would lifetime employment, so that coincidentally happens to occur next spring. we do think at that stage the boj should reassess the data. haidi:

vonnie: boj governor kuroda has pledged to maintain monetary easing. he spoke at the annual meeting of the institute of international finance in washington where he defended boj policy, saying japan's inflation is different from the u.s. and europe. he said the central bank need to continue easing to secure its inflation target. he also reiterated his view that japan's recent currency intervention was appropriate. >> we continue our monetary easing in order to achieve 2% inflation target, or price stability target. the economy is still recovering from the pandemic, so we have to continue to hold the economy to recover. vonnie: the bank of england governor andrew bailey is under pressure to extend emergency guilt purchases, hours after promising to end it. the ble was forced to reiterate his ultimatum after the central bank had privately told bankers deadline could be extended. the confusion roil the market, weakening the pound and sending gilt yields higher. opec has slashes projections for the amount of crude it will need to pump by 440,000 barrels a

very much watching dollar-he and after what kuroda's comments said.tas airways has surged back to profitability, and in a streak of five consecutive half-year losses, a total of 4.3 billion u.s. dollars. the city carriers set profit is expected to rise to as much as $12 billion. it also said that incidents of scrap flights, late departures, and lost bags are declining. applied materials has cut its forecast for the fourth quarter, citing new export restrictions to china. the biggest maker of chip manufacturing equipment estimates u.s. rules will reduce sales by about $400 million and it says it will affect sales away from fabrication equipment. bytedance is offering to buy back shares from its employees for $155 a piece. his -- it is the firm's second buyback this year as it ramps up plans to boost morale after its ipo stalled. the move comes after the company announced 3 billion-dollar buyback program for investors last month, giving the start of a 300 billion dollars valuation. modernity shares jumped the most in three months after merck said it wou

governor kuroda not sure it will stay there. led by cost push, not demand. finally, one of the hawkish members of the ecb, the head of the dutch central bank, he said it will take two more significant hikes to get to neutral, that could include 75 basis points. there was an audience question to him where this woman asked what keeps you awake at night? you sound ok but what keeps you awake? he said nothing, unless we were to have a crisis like the u.k. that got applause and laughter from the audience. a serious issue but certainly one that everybody even in washington can joke about. haidi: the other major risk to markets is what is going on in china. we heard from a defiant xi jinping over the weekend, on sunday taking to the podium to open the communist party congress, reaffirming policies at the center of frictions with the united states. let's get more on the speech and what we learned. let's bring in stephen engle in hong kong. it was a two hour speech and a lot of it felt like it was built on the idea that he has spoken about it before, the chinese nati

commentary from rhoda -- governor kuroda and suzuki. yields dropped, demolish on friday. i liked with steven major had to say, you could build a case for rates at 2%. i say that again -- you could build a case for rates at 2%. in the united states of america based on a hard landing. is that what the fed are trying to avert as they go with this narrative that they may be beginning to consider where we are in terms of peak rates, which would equal a pause, the equivalent of a pivot. more on the china data in a moment. reporters around the world standing by, anna edwards, reunited again, she is in westminster. another big week in u.k. politics. colum murphy helps us digest the chinese party meeting. and annabelle droulers. rishi sunak has taken a step toward becoming the next prime minister. anna is outside the houses of parliament and this is mesmerizing if you look at it from outside world. boris flew home, put his hat in the ring and then withdrew. good morning. anna: good morning. what a week and it has been. rishi sunak the front runner, penny mordant still in it. boris

here, there's a nonnegotiable, as long as kuroda us on is present, you cannot see an increase in debtervice cost. we will see where that goes through the end of april. i would say the yen still continues to be a preference for global investors as a reserve currency, even despite current weakness vis-a-vis the dollar. david: and that weak currency is helping you enjoy tokyo a little bit more. alexis: very affordable. david: great to see you, joining us out of tokyo. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: let's check in with these markets. hang seng, 2.2% up after a torrid time of this week. it's going to erase some of the losses we have been suffering. we're looking also at the chip side of things. we had texas instruments and sk hynix as well. this is a look at some of the tech names. yvonne: 4% gains for tencent, wow. we are seeing a bit of a rebound when it comes to hstech. hong kong is up more than 2%. looking at the chipmakers as well, still seeing quite a bit of green for sk hynix despite the dire warning. of course lots of earnings to unpack. stanchart, hsbc seeing a b

if you remember the language that kuroda is using, he is saying ok, we have inflation above 2%, but it is not the inflation we want. we want stable and sustainable inflation and for that we need wage gains. >> we are getting more lines coming from the finance minister. when it comes to ethics moves. he will not comment on daily moves but that speculative excessive effects moves -- fx moves cannot be tolerated. really we are not seeing acknowledgment of whether authorities have intervened this time around. we have plenty of speculation they did on monday, that they did on friday. what more can we expect from authorities? >> what is very clear is the gloves are off. japan is tackling the weakness in the yen. it has intervened clearly and said so on one occasion. it looks highly unlikely it is coming on other occasions including yesterday. the strategy seems to be very clearly they are not going to acknowledge any of this anymore. that leaves doubt in the markets. doubt creates fear and reluctance to bet against the government. i think also we are seeing the government wants to send a sig

. >> we are hearing from governor carrix that that is not -- governor kuroda that that does not seemoo likely. he says it is not appropriate to raise rates in japan now. we have seen him double down on loose monetary policy. after the cpi numbers today the yen is with sighing. >> the imf is giving the boj backing for its mandate of easier policy settings as well. certainly, there is a lot of momentum around sticking with those policy settings. you mentioned moves in the yen in the session. it whipsawed. it is a little off its weakest levels, but still trading above the level that sparked intervention from authorities at the end of september. the question is, are we going to be seeing the boj stepping in on behalf of the japanese government again? traders are saying you need to look at different points for clues on what will happen next. some people, including those at td securities are saying, look at the yen volatility. that is still subdued. that is a sign we will not see any policy shift. others are saying, perhaps, we have already seen it, given what we have seen in the yen futur

governor kuroda has said even if they move the yield prove control by 25 basis points, what does it do dollar-yen when the fed is doing that every meeting? the primary tool of defending the currency is fx intervention i the minister of finance and the bank of japan will likely continue to set policy easing. to your point, i think you are right that the boj could -- the ministry of finance could slow the pace of yen depreciation but the ultimate direction of the currency is driven by monetary policy, which is driven more by the fed. yvonne: i guess everyone is trying to hold on as long as they can until there are signs of the dollar peaking. i'm wondering, when do you think the dollar can peak and what is going to be the likely catalyst? >> in terms of dollar-yen we see japan's current account, we expect the fed to finish its hiking cycle in february next year at the 5% and from there on in the second half of next year we expect cuts in the policy rate. we could begin to see seachange, directional change from the fed in the first half of next year and start to see dollar peaking. additi

ruth, we continue to see the pressure on the japanese yen given governor kuroda stance and it comes topolicy. but we are seeing yen swaps corporate bond coupons now pointing to perhaps a surge in the 10 year yield. what is this telling us about expectations of where the boj will go? >> it is a clear messaging from bond vigilantes. that they are willing to test the boj's measure here. in terms of yen swaps climbing, absolutely, average coupons on ten-year year bonds pushing higher. process -- crossing and negative rates around the time and negative rates ending around the time kuroda steps out in april. all of this is telling us this will be ongoing yen pressure, ongoing pressure on jgb because people, investors are just not convinced that the boj can cling to its ultra dovish monetary policy stance where inflation is pushing high into japan. and as long as treasury yields continue to edge higher, as long as the dollar continues to push ever higher, you are guaranteed to see pressure day by day. paul: how about pressure on the offshore yuan. we did see it has reached into august 2010 ye

the 2% target set by kuroda. no doubt we will see the wider picture as well the next few days.haad: it will maybe also -- david: it will maybe also have to do with of japanese currency. rishaad: the yen, yes. david: jpy. we were nearing that level. now we are a little below that because of the drop in the u.s. dollar overnight. still, 144 really where we are. is the threat of another intervention from japanese authorities -- is that a real risk ahead? let's bring in our fx and rates strategist joining us to talk us through this. how real is this threat? >> there is a very good possibility it will happen. it will depend on u.s. yields. they were lower yesterday because of a weaker than expected isn data. the fed came out quickly and said we are not done tightening yet. the inflation data, i think ceos push higher this week especially if fed rhetoric remains hawkish. the markets are very aware of 1.5 to 1.46. rishaad: tell me, we are seeing with the oil prices have been doing, lurching lower from the bump up we have had the past 48 hours. japan of course is a major energy importe

cc, perhaps a wider band or some sort of policy shift, but the reality is it looks like governor kurodapolicy, at least until we get a new governor after april next year. boj is in a bind. it needs probably more intervention. more jawboning to slow the move, but the reality is if the dollar keeps weakening. rishaad: it is not looking effective tax hikes. how does that move the needle, and should it move the needle for the boj and its stimulus? >> i think that is very important. i think core inflation -- you strip out food and energy, is moving higher, trending higher, and that also suggests it -- suggests that pressures are broadening, but again, it's suggest it is temporary and we still your forecasts of conditions coming lower into next year. i think the bank is focused on wages and real wages are still negative in japan. for that reason, i think bank of japan still believes it has patients to hold onto current policy settings. the reality is they want to see wages move higher before they even contemplate any change in policy, so that's why i think it is somewhat off before we see a s

the finance minister is increasing monitoring of fx moves, and kuroda saying it is not surprising one-sided moves are bad for the economy. manus: that thumping dollar. what theme to do you want, jules? juliette: i didn't like that one, i think you need to work on that. manus: that's -- ok, i'll check in before we sing it on air. juliette saly in singapore. coming up on the show, the big hitters in european earnings, nestle hits the tape in just a few moments, how much did you pay for your sparkling water, your hagen-dasz, the treasures of life did you pay up? this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: some breaking news, nestle earnings coming in. they are seeing full-year organic revenue at 8%, at the high end of the original estimate, the original was a range of 7-8%, but to be clear estimates had been 48.3%. the other important thing to note is nestle is facing high costs overall materials. however they are still keeping their margin estimates, operating margin they say will be around 17%. it is all about raw materials and consumer strength, manus. manus: the other side of that coin to the input side is

do we have to wait to see where kuroda goes next year? >> that would have been our base case until about a month ago. now we think maybe there will be some measures. yvonne: we are seeing stress in the high-yield market in china. brad: measures so far do not appear to be stymieing the stress there with the zero covid policy, the ultimate success of that property market is property sales and when you have a policy of zero covid, it is argosy property sales rebounding any time soon, so short-term support measures might stabilize occasionally, but at the moment, we do not see a bottoming in that week cycle for property. yvonne: what does this mean for where you look at in terms of opportunities? are you adding duration? >> we think the u.s. economy is one economy that can sustain higher rates. markets like australia, new zealand, canada, where the mortgage market is more to the shorthand, could slow faster. we don't think about outright duration, but maybe underweight u.s. versus those markets. that relative value player i think is still att

kuroda is set to appear in parliament today, we will be going through his comments to see where he standsthe loose monetary policy that we saw in the last few weeks of his doubling down on. will keep an eye out for intervention as the yen slides down to the 150 level. we see it at 149. the dollar index is under pressure. the cnh is at the 720 level. multiyear lows. haidi: we have a big interview, an expose conversation with a black role -- blackrock vice, how he is doing the turmoil in the u.k. and structuring in credit suisse and their outlook when it comes to asian markets. the times are on your screen at the moment. a la mora head, this is bloomberg -- millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... add a line to your existing plan, or see for yourself how easy it is to save by tal

kathleen: at the g 30 meeting when andrew bailey was on stage with kuroda and others, he made it clearere in solid agreement. now that the former -- the situation has changed so dramatically. when the market gets this that they are arm in arm in what they need to do, how will that affect gilts and pound etc.? >> it is a positive in the near term that they are on the same page. how much they are on the same page still needs to be seen? what is this mini budget? how many things are they you turn -- u-turn-ing on? the markets -- there are still unfunded items on this mini budget. we are looking for another 90 basis points in december. the boe does not come through and do is part of the equation. it will take both of them to fulfill their end of the haidi: we do have nonoil domestic exports from singapore just crossing the bloomberg at the moment. the number is coming in at a contraction of 4%. that is a seasonally adjusted month on month number. the previous month we had been expecting for the month of september a gain of 4/10 of a 1% so that is a miss. we are also seeing the electronics

through in the last half hour, still unlikely to change that lessee perhaps until -- that policy until kuroda year. the young come also the yen, also affected. we are on track for a 10th weekly losing streak in nine years. it is a downbeat session, we are seeing the need to online. let's change it on now. we have the south korea trade data coming out. we do see the trade deficit coming through, you can see the figure at the bottom of your screen. want to be watching, given korea is a global while other -- one to be watching, given korea as a global bellwether for us. other factors we are watching today is what we see in the tech sector, we see the cause deck -- the kosdaq, outpacing. we have the broader issues facing the tech sector as well. sap with its quarterly -- snap with its quarterly sales slump. other factors, the u.s. possibly expanding its tech ban on china's chip technology, or technology including quantum computing, a.i., those are all factors weighing on the sector. for the korean won, fairly flat. we have seen it reflecting broader risk issues in the sector as well, volatility s

that is the kuroda approach. we do not know who his replace that will be.year. it is just speculation on our part. i feel very much that is all we are doing. we are trying to game it out anyway. tom: now we dive into the world cup coverage. we are doing this without jon ferro which is unfortunate. you have a global mandate. you will be in the middle east. i guess you will attend the world cup. can you explain to mere mortals like me how we see a good product with 86 degrees on the field? steven: it might be a slow game. it can be completely different. i will see some england games. i'm lucky enough to get tickets. i think it will be a strange world cup. it is going to be surreal. in that kind of heat, it will be cooler than the summer obviously but the games will be slower and more measured. it will not be as crazy as the premiership because you have seen how fast they play in the premiership. you have seen it yourself. tom: i have a 110.80. this morning, down to 110.87. it is important for you to come under politics but under the pressures that governor bi