bloomberg economic saw a note and they said this will be a move that will be helping with the economicok in china which has been deteriorating on the covid outbreaks generally. the outlook for a slowing global economy. that is provided that lender's to put the extra capital to work. they say next year will not be enough. they are expecting two more rrr codes in the coming months and also they are expecting for the officials to lower the one year rate which is the key policy rate by 20 basis points. the reason they are saying that if you change the bloomberg economics is basically taking a look at more high-frequency indicators in china and that does tell us just how much of an impact lockdowns are having. metro traffic in china, you see that is thinking in some of the second-tier cities. haidi: we have had so much enthusiasm for chinese equities, are we seeing some places turn cautious? annabelle: as you say, we are basically hearing a course of wall street strategists earning more positive in the expectation that china would relax at zero covid policies. the lockdowns are spreading an

were talking about, to say it is actually happening, this could be a protected recession that bloomberg economicsbe a much longer recovery then you might see in the rest of the world there that is absolute fascinating. jon: and something we will continue to watch. we are watching the markets also. the inflation story is continuing to keep investors on the bond side. kriti: the s&p 500 up .8%. the s&p up .8%. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> a bear market rally or the seeds of a next bull market? a lot of questions about what comes next after that monster rally yesterday. taylor: trying to recoup 4000 on the s&p 500. the bond markets are closed today. happy veterans day. you are looking at another day of significant dollar weakness.

coming up, heading back to singapore, the fifth annual bloomberg new economic forum is set to kickoff you a preview of what is on the agenda there. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family or passing down the family business or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? haslinda: welcome back. bloomberg new economic form is set to begin tomorrow here in singapore. let's discuss some of the key events of the agenda with erik schatzker. big names and big names. we are looking forward to hear from the likes of jake sullivan. erik: i have to tell you, we knew that the timing of this year's forum was auspicious when we planned it eight months ago, but we had no idea how good it was going to be, because president biden and president xi are meeting today in bali, of course, and that provides us with a completely new contex

oil and gas price ceiling aimed at harming russia is completely pointless so i think it is bloomberg's economics opinion, european leaders want something they could call a ceiling. and what will allow them to look strictly at russia, but in reality they cannot influence moscow, but the effect of severe restrictions for itself will be terrible, the european economy, which already suffers from the highest inflation, will face higher prices in 40 years 100 dollars. inflation in europe will continue to grow, i am sure, the head of the european central bank, christingard. the official did hearings. uh, this is a statement in the european parliament. and another forecast for the economic growth of the eu will continue to weaken, how to deal with this was discussed the day before in brussels on a recipe from the central bank to further increase interest rates. opponents are confident. such a policy will only exacerbate the recession that is looming over the european union. the decision of the brussels bureaucrats is causing more and more discontent among ordinary europeans, italy is preparing for a na

i thanks of course the tom of bloomberg economics. th of you, thank you, thank you very much, indeed. this is bloomberg. >> good news, bad news, that is what we are looking at when it comes to economic data and the equity market. u.s. equities around lowe's this session. addie: it does seem to be that data along with the ism that almost looks like a cliff dive down. this is the s&p 500 futures overnight and on the open, up almost 1%. really continuing october strength, the s&p 500, the best month in october since july, up about 8%. and we have the fed tomorrow, so folks wanting to know what is going to come out there. we actually have quite a bit of movers to the upside. tesla had been up more than 1% on reports that it will be doing truck mass production for its truck. barry interesting-looking vehicle for sure. the s&p 500 energy next getting a bit from oil being higher. also having a great day, a blowout third quarter and increasing buybacks. apple, not so much. down 2.3% ahead of their online store along with their information serv

bloomberg. ♪ >> we will have to talk about the future. a new economicfocusing on the real fundamentals including -- not to focus on the activities and the interest of the big conglomerates. so there is achievable policy. parks that is malaysians new prime minister speaking at a bloomberg interview a one week before the elections. he says he plans to test lawmakers support for his leadership with a confidence vote december 19. he seeks to prove that he does command a parliamentary majority. finally, after a week of political deadlock. >> the almost man of militia politics realizing his dream at age 75 and telling the press his grandson asked him how long it took to become prime minister and he said only 24 years. this has been a week of lyrical deadlock and we had to see the king intervene in order to form this. he has announced a public holiday on monday and said he plans to test lawmakers for their support on the vote on december 19. this comes after the former premier who was also trying to form a government challenged him to prove he has the majority

we have got stephanie flanders from bloomberg economics, friend of the podcast. hello. hello, hello. and another friend of the podcast, claer barrett, from the financial times. hello! thanks for having me. i'm glad you're here, so, interest rates at 3%, stephanie. for those of us who aren't steeped in this, what is the economic theory about why interest rates have to be that level right now? so, you have prices going up too fast. we all know that, inflation. and one of the ways that you can sort of bring down inflation is to have less demand in the economy and one of the ways that you get less demand in the economy is by cranking up interest rates so you're making mortgages, the loans of people on variable rate mortgages have less money in their pockets and have got less money to spend so, in theory, the economy slows down. and, claer, that is the kind of macroeconomic stuff, butjust give us a sense of how that feeds into real lives. in terms of money, there's around 2 million people in this country who are on a variable rate mortgage who will immediately see the impact

we have got stephanie flanders from bloomberg economics on the podcast. hello. hello, hello. and another friend of the podcast, claer barrett, from the financial times. thank you for having me. i'm glad you're here, so, interest rates at 3%, stephanie. gives a sense of how that feeds into real lives. in gives a sense of how that feeds into real lives.— into real lives. in terms of money that _ into real lives. in terms of money that is _ into real lives. in terms of money that is about - into real lives. in terms of money that is about 2 - into real lives. in terms of. money that is about 2 million people in the country who are on a variable rate the biggest since the 80s or 90s depending on who you believe. and for somebody with the average size mortgage, that is going to add nearly £80 a month or £1000 a year, just from today's rise, but of course, that is the eighth rise we have had in succession from the bank of england. there is more pain to come for around 2 million people you roll off their mortgage fixed rates next year. they might see an even bigger rise because they

bloomberg economics is forecasting a100 percent chance of recession.is your forecast for where we end up? >> it's very difficult to give firm projections because this is a very unusual labor market. the pandemic led to a lot of departures from in person services. if you look at hiring data, you can still see healthy hiring and some of those services where some businesses are trying to catch up. it's the kind of run rate they are seeing. it is the case that as rates move further into restrictive territory and financial conditions remain tight, that does exert some restraint on demand. you will see some reallocation. vacancies are unusually high relative to unemployment. that does six chess -- suggest catch up hiring. there is a chance we will see those vacancies rather than putting as much emphasis on layoffs. there will likely be a combination of both. we will be watching the labor market as well as inflation. >> i want to turn to another story we've been covering, which is the implosion of another firm in the crypto market. you were looking at the cry

haidi: bloomberg opinion columnist and senior advisor bloomberg economics, elderly there. k on the crypto markets as blockfi tries to collect $1 billion owed by alameda. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... add a line to your existing plan, or s

but bloomberg economics thinks they may be cresting and they will start to go down.ould be good news. health insurance costs, the pandemic is fading so costs are expected to go down. we will just have to wait and see how this impacts the fed, there will be a lot of inflation numbers of the next couple of months that they will be taking into account. there was raise the fed funds rate above the cpi. so one of two things has to happen. fed funds has to go up a lot. were cpi has to come down. those of the things to keep an eye on. the journey of a thousand miles back to 2% target begins the couple of tenths of a percentage points. >> what mike said. coming up, trent lot, former u.s. senator will be joining balance of power with david westin. guy and i are headed to the cable. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from the world of politics, to the world of business, this is "balance of power" with david westin. david: from bloomberg studios in washington, d.c. to our television and radio audiences, welcome. it is midterm elections plus one with a lot decided. we turn to our

our bloomberg economics chief economist is here, author of understanding china's economic indicators.ght that there were key cities that were going to be allowed to start easing covid policies. we thought after the big political events, that would be the direction as well. markets have been pricing in that in. what is going on now? why are we seeing what we are seeing down to the number of cases china is experiencing? tom: that is right. china was moving more quickly than expected to ease covid zero restrictions, quarantine times came down. if you where the contact of the contact of someone who had a covid infection, you did not face quarantine at all. and the markets cheered that shift. somewhat predictably, though, when you start easing restrictions, you see cases shooting up. that's what we have seen the last few days in china. the big question from here is, well, how does china react? do they throw their hands up and say, we are now moving towards herd immunity or do they locked down again to try to get back down to zero? or do they aim for a nuanced targeted approach, not as seve

tom: a gift arguably, the bloomberg economics team saying surprisingly dovish comments from the committee. the staff highlighted the 50% risk of recession. there is consensus within the fomc to moderate rate hikes. no consensus around the terminal rate though. gains in europe, the spanish ibex up, the cac 40 up four points. the ftse 100 currency range bound. s&p ending at a two-month high yesterday. it is thanksgiving, so u.s. equities will not be trading. but future still pointing to that reopened stateside. the dollar is down, giving a boost, 1.04, brent falling 5/10 of a percent, $84 a barrel after the eu set out a guideline on price caps that were higher than expected. a fascinating story in asia, anw ar ibrahim is the prime minister after a decades long attempt. a reformer, the index gained on the needs of that report. francine: let's take you to the sectors. seven groups on the upside, but seems to be pretty range bound. the sector losing the most is 5/10 of a percent lower. automatics and food and beverage on the way down. let's get over to our mliv managing editor, he's mark cudmo

alix: bloomberg economics is saying they think the fed is going to blink with the recession. it may not be the case. michael mckee, kriti gupta, always a pleasure. coming up, we will stay with a company that invests in --. elias sabo will join us. this is bloomberg. ♪ what if we wanted to electrify all of this... 100% carbon free... is it possible? ♪♪ aes has been leading energy transitions for decades... and is partnering with the worlds leading companies to decarbonize industries... cities, and nations. even the internet. is it possible? can we reliably power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? yes... aes. alix: a next picture for the u.s. consumer, retail rates rising. target warning shoppers are pulling back. that is the question of the day, good walmart plus better target equals what for the economy? let's ask someone on the ground. elias sabo's ceo of cody. elias: it is a little bit of the next bag. we have seven different consumer businesses that touch a wide arrange of consumer products. we are seeing if you have products that consumers want, the

bloomberg economics says it is a clear sign the rate hike could stay on a clear path. it is not a pause. it is a slower pace. i have to say the interview with the wall street journal, president of the kansas city fed think there is a risk of inflation getting entrenched and she says given the years she has had at the fed looking at the economy and more it has never been a time when you can curb inflation this bad without causing some kind of recession. rishaad: kathleen, good stuff. not the only part of the world which is doing inflation. rate decisions from engine asia and the philippines in the next few hours. indonesia expect to hike to five and a quarter of 1%. we know the philippines is going to go for 75 basis points. there we go. inflation at 7.7% and the philippines in -- and in just over five for indonesia. shery: of course with those concerns of rising inflation we have seen rising interest rates and a global economic outlook seeing some pressure. let's look at how sovereign wealth funds are repositioning. haidi: joining us is the ceo of australia's future fu

we had the bloomberg economics intelligence expecting profit growth raising 10% year on year on an adjustedwe are also watching for any update when it comes to the acquisition of the citi retail banking business awaiting regulatory approval. we are seeing stocks of about 5.5% -- up about 5.5%. it's been in outperformer. -- an outperformer. watching in particular when it gets divided out. given the amount of volatility we have seen. dbs, also commenting on where they see the fed going, they are net interest margin expectations, peaking at four and 3/10 of one percent. the plat form for loans is healthy. the tail risk scenario high inflation and high rates they are seeing is playing out at the moment. coming up -- we have the biggest maker of smartphone processors giving a weaker outlook than expected. we get an update on qualcomm, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to h

bloomberg economics think we will see a recession in the second half of next year.hat wouldn't be a big surprise in the fed almost has to engineer one in order to persistently get inflation and the idea that we will have high-end nation off the table. many people i talked to in the markets and annick totally -- and anecdotally think inflation is here to stay in older people think it will be the 1970's and 80's again. to get rid of that feeling, we have to have a recession of some magnitude to get that thought out of people's minds that we will have persistent inflation. kailey: on that note, we will and is this conversation. thank you both. coming up, more on our question of the day and whether to data points make a trend? we will pose that question to the barclays head of u.s. equity strategies. equities are rallying hard today. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> good news is, there is a distinct possibility we will see inflation moderate fairly quickly. the bad news is, there's a distinct possibility equally likely it could take 10 years. this is the unfortunate reality. kai

the chief european economist for bloomberg economics. we are waiting for news conference i the nato secretary-general. we will discuss what to expect coming up next. this is bloomberg. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds. >> this is a critical time for our security and we are sending an important message. nato is here. nato is vigilant. nato is ready to defend every end of allied territory. alix: that was general jens stoltenberg during his open remarks at a nato meeting with leaders. leaders are there to discuss a wide range of topics over the next two days. we are joined by the global ceo. when he is saying t

if clt global ceo sarah williamson joined us for the bloomberg world economic forum. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: welcome back. the euro is catching a bid. a collective way for as far as europe is concerned. developers seeing a bit of a pullback. asia done 2/10 of a percent. eastern european currencies coming off their lows of the day. european futures down 9/10 of 1%. geopolitics in focus. rishaad: u.s. politics as well with former u.s. president donald trump making a bid for 2024. i suppose not a big surprise. what are his chances? >> i'm not going to handicap donald trump's chances at retaking the white house in 2024 but what i can tell you is a contest for the leadership of the republican party is not just playing l in florida between donald trump who just announced his candidacy or at least his campaign at mar-a-lago and ron desantis who may yet announce a run for the republican leadership. he of course is the governor of the state of florida. it is playing out in singapore and why is it playing out here? candidates need money. the rest of the world probably does n

and finally, the international monetary fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth, bloombergtes about this. experts estimate that weakening economic performance leads to growing problems in the future, many countries are likely to need further tightening of fiscal, budgetary and monetary policies to reduce inflation and eliminate debt vulnerabilities, experts say last month, the imf estimated that about 1/3 of the global economy will contract , at least two quarters in a row , the organization’s production loss by 2026 will be $ 4 trillion, such was the news of the economy. stay with us. and don't miss today is a fresh issue of the area of ​​interest, have a nice day. the morning broadcast on tv channels belarus 1 and belarus 24 continues the program for x not alexander smirnov hello , the courier of telephone scammers was caught red-handed . and the prehistory is standard before this woman, they called her home phone and said that a relative was the culprit. accident he urgently needs money further than the suspect handed over to the police, the investigators assessed the de

more rate hikes not just of the spring of 2023, perhaps out into may come as that's nothing bloomberg economicres? guest: the view from the u.s. team is that the fed has a fair amount still to do. we are looking at a terminal rate of 5%. that means 50 basis point in december, and still some work to do into 2023. kriti: sonja, we are waiting comments. from chairman powell in just a few minutes if you were in the room what would you ask him? >> i would ask him about the outlook for inflation into the second half of 2023. i think we will see some helpful based effects for inflation in addition to goods. as i mentioned the stickiness of services inflation. especially if we, as the fed hopes we get declines in job openings but not a lot of layoffs. i want to hear more about how the fed forecasts both the consensus view within the committee and the risks around that view. kriti: something we will keep an on, we still have the lot a different game changers come a lot of data come payroll at the end of this week. sonja and tom, true experts on the subject. let's get a quick check of the markets. as we

by bloomberg economic survey of economists said the majority still sudafed getting the key rate up totate media saying there are no fundamental conflict between the two nations, and there's huge potential for trade. fbi director christopher wray has said the bureau has grave national security concerns about chinese-owned video app tiktok. regulators are weighing a deal that would allow tiktok to keep operating in the u.s. lawmakers and china's government could control millions of user'' data. dir. wray: we do have national security concerns, at least from the fbi's end, about tiktok. they include the possibility that the chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users or control the recordation algorithm, which could be used for influence operations, if they so chose, or to control software on millions of devices. vonnie: bloomberg has been told goldman sachs paid more than $12 million with veteran executive who complained internally about a toxic workplace for women. the bank settled two years ago in a deal they kept secret. a senior executive making p

and the cable began to decline and the american economy grew, here's 6% recent analysis by bloomberg economicsd a recession in the united states will come within years since with a 100% chance ahead of the election, biden responded to this statement that the economy is damn strong along with the fed in november. understood the rate by another 75 percentage points to a range of 3.75 4%. this is the highest since 2008, which increases the risks of negative impact on economic growth due to higher interest rates on loans. all this reduces the chances of the democrats that they will soon be in the minority in the us house of representatives, say the forecasts of many major ones. american media that will change if at the helm will the republicans stand up? well, firstly, they insist on spending cuts claiming that they entail rising inflation. this will also affect assistance to kiev, the washington post notes, in general, ukraine has become one of the key topics in the election race. for both democrats and republicans. the latter even threatened to reduce the financial support of the independent to

the european union fails to agree on a price catalog for russian oil is reported by bloomberg, our economiceam will tell you the details. in europe , growth per thousand cubic meters gives more than 1,400 dollars. what was the reason this time? in the state duma today, a busy day, deputies will discuss the processing of biometrics and the suspension of legal proceedings for the mobilized. dealers have mastered parallel imports , there is demand, but cars have to wait at least two months, as cars are now delivered. freezing rain has passed in kazan, meteorologists are waiting for the re- emergence of the elements. we are waiting for the direct inclusion of our correspondent. russia expects from the international community a fundamental assessment of the torture and executions carried out by ukrainian militants. this was stated by the permanent representative of our country to the un vasily nebenzya. ukraine all the time demands weapons and money from the western allies, all the details from mary from the cow. gathered to resolve security issues in the world, then slipped into a banal request

economics. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: a new report by deloitte as found colleges and unconscious biases based onnder good booze the australian economy by $80 billion a year. joining me know is a partner at deloitte access economics. i find this intriguing. we note greater inclusivity, greater diversity and representation comes with enormous economic benefits, but tell us about this report and the key findings. >> thank you so much for having me. this report starts in a sobering place. it is in australia we are not doing as well as we could on many measures of participation and debate, then it boils down to the fact that it probably relates to the things that we think and say and believe about gender, the norms that we hold in society, which in australia are surprisingly conservative. then it takes over to something more positive and says actually we have the ability to change our minds. and in changing our minds, we have a workforce that is willing and able and here to participate more fully in the economy, and that translates to huge economic growth. haidi: part of the structural barriers to mo

territories of donbass , president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyy said in a video interview on bloomberg new economician aggression went far beyond ukraine, as evidenced by the wreckage of the missile on the territory of other countries, so the ukrainian formula for peace is important not only for ukraine and for the whole world, volodymyr zelenskyi emphasized this, there is no need to introduce volodymyr zelenskyi, the president of ukraine, he is in our thoughts, in our hearts, in the news and not only the last 48 hours and the whole year. so , we welcome president zelensky to the forum of the new economy. thank you very much, john. thank you very much, dear ladies and gentlemen. thank you for your attention to ukraine. our communication today actually finalizes the work of your forum . when and how will the russian aggression end, look at how many threats there are crises for everyone in the world provoked by this aggression. i will give three examples now, but there are many more , another russian terrorist attack just took place in the morning, dozens of rockets, moldy objects, the main misha , r

this will actually be one of the key topics at the fifth annual bloomberg economic forum taking placeeditor erik schatzker is already there. we are looking forward to joining you next week. what are the things we will be following? >> you have so kindly been helping me beat the drum for weeks. as you say, the new economy formed bloomberg's flagship event is about to be reality. in singapore starting tuesday. this is where we draw on the best of bloomberg including mike bloomberg himself to bring together the private sector and the public sector. we join east and west and north and south to explore the most urgent issues facing the new economy and the global economy. you talked about the battle for technological supremacy. that is the focus of our coverage. the u.s.-china rivalry and the rewiring of global supply chains , an issue that is important to singapore. we will be examining the doubts about esg. can sustainability as a push in the investment community survive the market shakeout? and of course we have to look at the impact of the war in ukraine and how it has put so many count

the bloomberg's economics team out today saying it is slowing giving the weakness.it with stocks declining with a start to the open we have for korea, starting the day in the red. concerns likewise with korea's economy, given local media their reporting they could lower the gdp forecast for 2023 21%. that would be down from an earlier forecast of 2.5% made in june. some of that is down to what's happening with external demand drivers and that is playing out with the report from reuters this morning that apple could cut its production at one of its plants there in china. given the covid zero lockdowns and the outlook for iphone demand. so we are watching at the start of trade down -- at the start of trading. also looking at the reaction to the taiwan elections at the weekend. no trading there -- that's an etf that tracks taiwan. we are one in -- one hour into the session for australian socks. -- australian stocks. really down to what's happening in china that is playing out in the commodity-linked currencies, the risk off turn also in the one. haidi: let's get some a

bloomberg economic says you could see another 5 trillion wiped off the global economy if a trinity ofthe ongoing fed interest rate. you have the big slowdown in china and the energy crisis in europe. at the three of those continue on the trajectory they are, there is a scenario 5 trillion is wiped off the economy. there is a lot of other things going on in the economy globally. that is the whole point of this piece. we look at the common risks around the world and those are slowing house prices. think about the impact that would have on development and investment should you have ongoing geopolitical tensions with our -- which are reversal of decades of liquidity. those 10 shoots continued -- there's tensions continue to worsen. there are concerns about the impact of name back all the pandemic that now interest rates are where they are. we are seeing pockets of stress. you a u.k. economy. italy is an obvious candidate. the point of this is it is a smoke word of risk for next year. as bad as things are they could get worse next year and the hit for the global economy in 2023 could be ug

worked, but the cable began to decline and the american economy grew by 6%. recent analysis by bloomberg economicsssion will hit within a year with a 100% chance ahead of the election biden responded to this statement that the economy is damn strong however the fed in november pudding the rate by another 75 percentage points to a range of 3.75 4 %. this is the highest since 2008, which increases the risks of negative impact on economic growth due to higher interest rates on loans. all this reduces the chances of the democrats that they will be in the minority in the us house of representatives very soon, and the forecasts of many speak. american media, what will change if the republicans take the helm? well, firstly, they insist on spending cuts claiming that they entail rising inflation. this will also affect assistance to kiev, the washington post notes, in general, ukraine has become one of the key topics in the election race. for both democrats and republicans. the latter even threatened to introduce zero financial support for an independent more than that, in the run-up to the elections in ne

the preview coming from economist in bloomberg economic is that when you look at some of the hotspotsober that will show up in some way in the set of numbers. also what is interesting, as i pointed out, markets are running not with the covid case numbers, but the reopening stories. in many ways this is a most backward looking. it will show -- we will see what it shows. this is one drilling -- trillion yuan that will mature this month and there are expectations it will roll that all the way back. back to you guys. haidi: david ingle looking ahead to what could be very interesting for the chinese market session today. there is so much going on, let's take you back to bali, live pictures of the g20. we saw the president welcoming world leaders. getting this conference underway. so much is already happened. the real action we know is always on the sidelines. the three hour leadership meetings between china and the u.s.. i feel like we have been taken down a peg or two when it comes to our cautious optimism. allow the guests in singapore the bloomberg new economy form to manage -- telling

for more, we bring in michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and policy

economist at bloomberg news's international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee. want to start with you, because you gave a beautiful set up this morning about simply what we are waiting for from the federal reserve but i'm curious what could move the markets here. what is the game changer for the equity and bond market? michael: i'm not sure there is a game changer in the decision today. it is pretty well priced in. if anything would move the markets it would probably be if jerome powell was perceived as dovish today. if he opened the door at 50 basis points and mark is felt there was a better chance of that than 75 then you probably would see a positive market reaction but i do not think he wants to do that. he will try to use strategic ambiguity to try to keep markets guessing and say it is all data-dependent. kriti: anna, hop on in here. i want to make it clear to our audience that anna was way ahead of what is now priced into the market as the base case, the 5% terminal rate of get marginal 2023. anna wong predicted months ago, was a contrarian on that front.

experts on 7, 5, 8 yuan or more, chief economist for bloomberg economics joins us now with more of ae expertise on china. i don't get it, tom. you are going to explain it, now. they are shutting down the disneyland in shanghai and at the same time giving luxury retail a massive new store in shanghai. which story actually describes the greater china? tom: so i think you are right, tom, there is a huge contradiction there right now. on the one hand you have the china land of opportunity, the world's second-biggest economy, country of one point 4 billion consumers and in a decade perhaps the world's biggest economy, companies were luxury brands are betting. on the other hand you have millions under lockdown, china with a property slump and pmi data showing the manufacturing sector in contraction. taking an optimistic tilt, you say that this shall also pass. covid zero will come to an end, eventually good for growth. it's difficult to see how we get there in the immediate. tom: if they turn the vector around, going from 3% to 3.4%, all in conversational gdp, what does that due to to the

at the bloomberg economic forum in singapore, you have -- saying the former president is a three-time want him to get out of the way and make way for a new leader. president biden not only having a successful g20 summit at the moment, a number of things able to get done, not just the china meeting but bloomberg scooped there's going to be an extension of the russian grain deal, also the fact there is a lot of talk in the republican party that they want to do away with the former challenger. lisa: in the democratic party, who would be the secondary leader who would emerge after biden should biden decide not to run? should it be clear perhaps former president trump isn't going to be allowed to run by his party? annmarie: let's first say the president has said to reporters last week and i was in the room with him, that he has the intent. his intention is to run. and he will make that announcement at some point in the coming months. president biden, especially after admiral kirby says, he has came in with the wind in his sales, it wasn't a red wave, he has the intent to run it 2024. the q

bloomberg markets. coming up, the veda partners darker of economic policy joining bloomberg tv 1:30 p.m.. this is bloomberg. ♪ keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ricky --ritika gupta. zelenskyy says that if it wasn't for iran supplying russia with weapons we would be close to peace now. the northeastern u.s. is hurtling towards her winter heating crisis. heating oil delivered to new york is the priciest ever. retailers in connecticut are rationing it to prevent panic buying, and there are winning seven national gas shortage. consumers faced the highest energy bills in decades this winter. europe's dash for gas and africa looks to be a heated issue of the climate change talks in egypt. when activists assess africa won'taccept energy clip---one activist says africa won't accept energy colonialism. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix? alix: thank you so very much. microsoft president brad smith is in egypt for cop7. emi

of the economic campbell, and he gave us estimates about the cost of those world cup —— economic gamble. bloomberg estimated to be as high as $300 billion. of course, a lot of that _ high as $300 billion. of course, a lot of that is on infrastructure, transportation and communications that are _ transportation and communications that are connected to the world cup, but not _ that are connected to the world cup, but not explicitly required. does that in any _ but not explicitly required. does that in any way _ but not explicitly required. does that in any way represent - but not explicitly required. pr: that in any way represent value for money? it that in any way represent value for mone ? ., , �* , that in any way represent value for mone? , money? it doesn't. the highest sport cost until now — money? it doesn't. the highest sport cost until now was _ money? it doesn't. the highest sport cost until now was 2014 _ money? it doesn't. the highest sport cost until now was 2014 when - money? it doesn't. the highest sport cost until now was 2014 when winter| cost until now was 2014 when winter 0tympics

this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". the asia-pacific economicon summit is underway, with chinese president xi jinping and kamala harris of the u.s. among leaders in bangkok areas joining us now is a stephen engle with a really important interview. steven: of course, on the first day of the global leader summit after the apex ceo summit, we have all the apac nation leaders, at least 14 of them. they are gathering for bilateral's. and, of course, the big news has always been about xi jinping versus kamala harris read the two are trying to pitch their various pitches to the southeast asian and asian leaders about their visions for engagement with asia. for more on that, i would love to bring in our guest, karan bhatia. you're the vice president in google, president of government affairs. you are also the former deputy u.s. trade representative. you and i met back in 2005 in hong kong when the wto talks were going on. failed talks, i wanted to ask you about how trade talks uc going no, essentially, there are competing regional trade deals, whether i

bloomberg and the city? dan: i was responsible for everything economic and financial.title was deputy mayor for economic development and rebuilding. first task was rebuilding the world trade center site. but then we really rethought the future of new york physically and financially by having a five borough economic development strategy. david: now, after serving as deputy mayor of new york for development and other projects, dealing with economic development, you left after how many years? dan: i was there for six years. and then mike, one day, mike bloomberg, we sat in this bullpen in city hall. it was an open space. and i sat basically behind him. one day, he wheeled around and he said, what would you think about going over and running bloomberg? and i said to him, what are you talking about? in the six years that we have sat here together, we have discussed the company for one hour total. and he said, no, i think you would be really good. i had never run a big company before. i did not know anything about bloomberg. when i was in private equity, i was a light user o

economic policies. >> the same thing could be said about what about the trip act? it could be between china and the u.s. discussing this. tom: some panelists at the bloombergew economy forum in singapore discussing the u.s.-china relationship. that following that meeting. there is a lot of optimism around president xi and biden meeting in asia. the economic front, disappointing data coming out of china in the last 12 hours or so. for more, we head back to francine lacqua who is at the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore with someone who understands and has the context when it comes to china's economy, the data, and that relationship with the u.s. francine. francine: i am here with tom orlik, the chief economist for bloomberg. we talk about the support that a lot of authorities had given china's economy and the poor results. >> china right now faces difficult challenges. covid zero remains in place and is severely depressing economic activity even as it does protect public health and save lives. the property crisis continues, severely dragging on investment and chinese contribution to global demand. and u.s.-china tensions remain really high. you have

despite the fact we are calling for weakness and economic growth and bloomberg estimates are for negative growth and i think they will have to hike into that because inflation will not be where they want it to be. they will give them selves the ability to come in and cut and that could be the earliest of next year or 2024. guy: megan horneman. the hunt for ftx is missing funds and more of the unraveling of sam bankman-fried's crypto empire. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is time for the bloomberg business -- work at starbucks who are seeking union contracts will stage a daylong strike at more than a hundred stores and they say management is an heartening in good faith -- isn't bargaining in good faith. starbucks says it will respect the workers right to protest lawfully. porsche has made a modern off-road 9/11 and it debuted this week at the los angeles auto show. the car will cause to 22,000 dollars in only 2500 of them will be made. it says they see a demonstrated appetite for the kind of sports cars that can take a beating and keep going. a ukraine export deal will be extende

>> the prime minister is struggling to rebuild, ruined economic credibility after his predecessor scorned his budget responsibility. in a bloombergnterview last week his trade secretary disputed the forecast that trade will be 16% lower because of brexit. britain's economic prospects are worse by being outside the world's largest trading -- and that is a fact. who does he agree with? the opr or his tory minister? >> mr. speaker, one of the great opportunities of brexit is our opportunity to trade more with other countries around the world. and i know the honorable lady would like to speak to many of the world's farmers who are enjoying selling their lands to the new markets -- that's what we'll get on and deliver. >> mr. speaker, -- placing greater pressure to approve developers which damages -- when the prime minister said he wanted to abolish that target, will use the report stage to amendment to do that. >> mr. speaker the government is committed to make home ownership a reality for a new generation and we must build homes in the right places where people want to live and work but as the honorable lady knows and like i said, i

international ceo joining us, coming up, lyft cutting 13% of its staff as a deal with economic uncertainty. this is bloombergave a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family or passing down the family business or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? kriti: this is "bloomberg: markets", i'm kriti gupta alongside jon erlichman. lyft and twitter to cut staff. ed ludlow is here, you do the reporting on the strikes and now we are hearing from lyft. we have seen this pattern across the board in the tech space which was ahead of the game in hiring. is this an early macro signal we should be paying attention to? ed: and happening very quickly. thursday was astonishing from a layoffs perspective. twitter is slightly anomalous in the sense that elon musk we are told is going to cut 50% of had cut -- headcount but that is a unique situation where he is coming in. brought painting is

economist here at bloomberg out of the chicago shop. she has the economic call of the year.. >> it is at five .50 to 5.75. anna's going to walk you through this now. >> anna, help us with the 5% terminal rate. does the financial world fall apart? >> financial worlds react to expectations with rates. pretty much 5% is priced in right now in nothing -- now it's nothing is breaking. the mortgage rate is already pricing in that path. it is clear that housing demand is falling sharply but that is the kind of adjustment that is needed, given how priced it is. i think the population in the lower half of an -- population in the lower half of income for cheering right now. >> in you have two dogs. one is named long and the other variable. everyone is quoting long invariable. forget about that. what are the social consequences on this job stay if we have rates verge and real rates revert back to what i knew in my youth. what happens socially? >> i think socially what's people care about will be revealed in the midterm elections that we will see next week. what we are seeing in america

economic uncertainty boils over. we will have to details when we come back. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: this is bloomberg markets. retail giant planning to cut some 10,000 corporate jobs on a move that would be in line with other tech companies that are aiming to adjust to rocky economic conditions. jeff bezos focused on his view on white companies to cut costs -- why companies should cut costs. >> you are seeing layoffs in many sectors and people are slowing down. the probability say if we are not in a recession right now, we will be in one so my advice to people is take some risk off the table. kriti: ed ludlow has the details and amazon does a lot of things. amazon web service and where of these layoffs coming from --are these layoffs coming from? >> the layoffs could follow the devices this is closely. this is where they are focus on the echo smart speakers and the alexa for system and we understand that the retail business and hr departments are also vulnerable but as the chart shows, the proposed layoff of 10,000 employees is less than a percent of total staff. when you put is -- it side-by-side with other l

at how australian pensions are rethinking their investment as the market braces for economic slowdown. this is bloomberg♪ paul: australia's mammoth pension industry is rethinking investments. it steers itself for slower growth. our pensions correspondent joins us now. what are the funds telling you about how they are positioning themselves? >> i have spent the last month speaking to funds about how they have been preparing themselves for tough times ahead. in the past 12 months, the pension fund industry has been positioning itself for the downturn, the biggest pension fund in australia has more than doubled its fixed interest allocation over 12 months to the end of october. other pension funds are doing similar. one is hunting for those opportunities at the moment. another is also increasing its exposure to the fixed interest. at the same time, reducing exposure to listed equities as they try to write out what has been a bumpy time in the markets. >> it sounds like they are staying cautious. how much dry powder is there? >> they are very cautious. the overwhelming theme is that there is an enormous amo

risks of its escalation, the resumption of a dialogue on nuclear weapons, then in the economic sphere, as bloomberg united states state department behind the scenes calls on the largest american banks, like jaffe morgan city group , do not refuse to cooperate with the backbone russian companies, among which ural potassium phosagro and gazprom are called, the purpose of such requests. uh, from the unofficial side, naturally against the state department is to minimize the negative consequences of the us sanctions igor sergeevich how would you comment on this news? well, in general, this is a completely normal situation, it seems to me, for american policy in this matter. after all, they have these administrative issues in the application of sanctions, that is, they create a legal regime and decide by administrative measures from which they will make exceptions, to whom these sanctions will apply, so from an institutional point of view, this is a completely normal situation. here. probably largely caused. these behind-the-scenes talks are quite difficult in formal terms, it is obligatory for banks to

people and china, the economic activity index is falling in the government was is a crackdown on hostile forces and we will speak exclusively with the bhp ceo mike henry. welcome to bloombergarkets. this is on top of mixed economic data we got but adp really rolling over but the third quarter gdp and consumer spending and business spending are still super solid. guy: what doou d with the adp number? chicago sucks. jobs are better. i don't know if you've noticed but despite what we saw, the jobs number looks good. you cut over 10 million and the expectation was 10,250,000 and we are down for revised lower number. nevertheless, this is the kind of data i think the fed will pay attention to. pending home sales numbers are not so good so that is definitely falling off a cliff now. on balance, we are seeing an effect in the housing market but not an impact in the labor market. alix: do you believe we lost 100,000 jobs in manufacturing in the last month? if you don't believe it than the labor market is holding up better than the housing market for example. guy: that would be our take at the moment. you got a robust labor market that is still fairly robust in the public that is s

bloomberg. we'll ask you a economic question and this possible rail strike. now, this is important, the white house is watching this carefully, not just because joe biden loves amtrak. this would be a significant blow to the economy. viewers will recall there was a possibility of a strike before the midterms, a few weeks ago, got pushed, but now may hit before the holiday season. walk us through how significant it would be if this does happen, and what is the white house -- what can they do to try and intervene and prevent it? >> so, as you laid out at the beginning, this would be tremendously significant for the economy, an economy that is struggling with supply chain issues. this would be maybe the biggest one yet. the freight railroad ships everything from fuel to groceries like fresh produce, and inputs like key chemicals for factories and so all those things really would slow down. not enough trucks in the united states to move all that if a strike were to occur. you're talking about the higher gas prices, empty grocery store shelves, you know. i think l