larry summers is upping his worst-case scenario at 6%.an you see a justifiable landscape that 6% could be hit in rates? >> the main concern is back to the fed. where do they stop and look at stagflation as a risk? growth is not slowing at the peace they want it to. if they see growth -- if we see sustained levels of inflation and larry summers could have something to play with but we are looking at march data. if inflation stays elevated i think we have a case for going higher than 5%. that is when we will go back to the volcker playbook. if it does not pullback than the fed has no reason but to keep increasing especially given the wage inflation is still elevated. we still see a low labor supply number. it is not the case that the fed is afraid to raise rates yet. dani: they need to see some cracks in unemployment before they can pivot. walk me through your playbook in that scenario. is the curve going to invert further? what happens to your yield? -- what happens to two year yield? let's look beyond 20 years and look at the volcker time

tom: larry summers has flagged the risk of the debt ceiling if the republicans gained the house and thesenate as well, just as the u.s. heads into a recession. how much of a risk is that for you? emmanuel: i think the volatility backdrop will stay very interesting. we have seen in the u.k. if you weeks ago, you can have this clash between government policy and central banks. fiscal policy is quite important. we have been there before in the u.s. i suspect this will be the same. what the market may appreciate is the potential for last fiscal expansion. tom: we have a result trickling through. that is the expectation as these results come through. the democrat slotkin, a democrat seeking reelection in a district that has been redrawn, has been reelected in michigan. that is a house race according to the associated press. she has defeated her republican opponent. a state senator. a win for the democrats when it comes to the house. the house very much still in play and indicators suggesting it still goes to the republicans at this stage. on inflation and cpi, are you expecting a print to co

treasury secretary larry summers talking to our colleagues.eanwhile, james bullard has signaled hikes will roll on, while the atlanta fed president favors slowing the pace of interest rate increases. joining us is a chief investment strategist at northern trust asset management. thank you for joining us. is the terminal rate more important for these markets or is it a pair down -- pare down? are they looking through a potential terminal rate with a handle about 5%? >> if i look at the markets right now, they are clearly very worried that the fed will push on beyond the terminal rate of 5% the market is pricing in, worried they will not be sensitive enough to the global growth slowdown and the fact that inflation has been rolling over quite significantly of late. if the fed does not account for that trend, clearly markets have to discount a higher terminal rate and discount on the back of that. that is something we think we are seeing at the long end of the curve right now where rates are rolling over. manus: good morning. good to have you with

it is something larry summers has called badly misguided.so, some of that china reopening narrative has helped futures this morning. it is also helping oil that is moving higher by more than 1% along with the fact that we did get a report out of the u.s. that u.s. stockpiles have fallen. let's get to your first word news. standing by with that is simone foxman. simone: good morning. israel's a fifth election in four years looks to return benjamin netanyahu to power. his strategy with forming an alliance with the far right has succeeded. he is on course to getting 62 seats. that will be enough to form a slim majority in the 120 member chamber. resilient president jair bolsonaro has vowed to respect the -- brazilian president jair bolsonaro has vowed to respect the constitution. his staff acknowledged sunday's defeat, saying the president had authorized them to begin the process. bolsonaro lost to lula by two percentage points, the narrowest margin in the country's history. the bank of england sells 750 million pounds of bonds in its qe portfo

what larry summers is saying it is similar to enron and have bad characters doing bad things. ahead of regulators and lawyers and manhattan d.a. >> dana: is the crypto industry looking for more regulation from washington? >> after this i hope so. it is time. there is something else, too. there is a piece in the "new york post" talking about the fact he was the second largest donor to the democrats. there is that side of the story. i won't get into the politics of this. again, i will wait and see what happens with the investigations but also do we oversee a company in the bahamas. alameda is based in hong kong. do regulators in the u.s. have jurisdiction over any of this? that's another question that needs to be answered. so many things that are d'orange me. >> bill: the etf for bitcoin and other is 2%. it is not a -- collapse. it is awaken today. >> people need to know if you'll invest in this have your eyes open, understand it and know what you are putting your money into. >> bill: have a footprint for your money. more to come. president biden's border chief forced to resign

as i mentioned larry summers but he was not the only one. that was the conventional wisdom that we're at the end of the business cycle and that we just couldn't squeeze anything more out of this current cycle. i mean, i think the federal reserves said that growth wouldn't be much about 2%, maybe 2.1% 2.1%. they were predicting a 2017, 2018-2019. the trump economy exceeded that. i think they said wouldn't fall below around for, 4.1%. again it did. it fell a full percentage point well below that, in fact. and i think it's important to point that out because again there is this argument that this was all going to happen anyway. and, in fact, well into 2018 you still had president obama out there taking credit for the trump economy. you had joe biden taking credit again for the trump economy and saying, you know, we started this, the obama administration started this. all the sure thing today, don't forget who started it. and again that's why wanted to point out what the expectations were when trump took office, a slowing economy and predictions

at was tom barker from the richmond fed and that was echoed by larry summers, a bloomberg regular on wall street week telling david westin that he thinks the fed could go a lot higher than fed. --then 5%. >> i am moving upwards my view of the possibilities of the terminal rate. it is not what i would expect but it would not surprise me if the terminal rate reached 6% or more. >> again, these four fed officials, larry summers echoing what jay powell said. the jobs report may have some hints that somewhere down the road they will get there but not yet. haidi: we are dealing with the world's most aggressive and synchronized monetary policy tightening in 40 years. it seems we are entering a new phase with central banks prepared to slow the rate of increases. let's get more on how this impacts markets. let's bring in mliv contributor garfield reynolds and stephen engle. this idea that we are getting into a messy period where expectations and delivery from central banks is not necessarily matching up. what does that mean for bond markets in particular? garfield: i think it means bond marke

francine: i don't think i've ever heard larry summers say anything good about any central bank, to beair. tom: but he was out front with his calls that they were not going quickly enough, and there he is again saying they still have somewhere to go. francine: let's get back to klaus baader, global chief economist at societe generale corporate and investment bank, if we assume that central banks are wrong although inflation came thick and fast, what did they need to do to make sure people believe they are credible? klaus: they don't have a lot of means, do they? they have to pursue interest rate normalization under the stance which is somewhat restrictive, and take away stimulus. i would say the fed wasn't the worst, probably the ecb takes the cake when it comes to being late and filling itself with its narrative that inflation was temporary. in june 2021, we knew monetary policy was completely out of whack, so this was obvious for quite a long time. tom: the chorus in terms of fed officials and others who watch the fed are looking at a terminal rate above 5%, what does that do to your

larry summers compared to the downward spiral of another company. larry: a lot of people have compared it to lehman. i would compared to enron, the smartest guys in the room, not just financial error but certainly from the reports, whiffs of fraud, stadium naming so early in the company history, vast explosion of wealth that nobody quite understands where it comes from. kriti: certainly something we will keep an eye on. he mentions enron as opposed the other righty of bankruptcies that have been flooding the sphere, as we talk about recession talks. sam friedman no longer the ceo of ftx. he tweeted, i am sorry again that we ended up here and hopefully things can find a way to recover and hopefully this can bring some amount of transparency, trust and governance and hopefully we can do better for customers. joining us to talk about this is sonali basak. what can we do when it comes to credibility here? how do you come back for this not just for ftx but the crypto industry broadly? sonali: given that ftx is seeking chapter 11 protections in bankruptcy,

former secretary larry summers says nobody should be surprised by 75-basis point hike, your thoughtscro story. >> nobody should be surprised by 75 basis point and the only surprise if they didn't move 75. they will move 75 and probably move 50 in dis. that may be a change at that point. we have to talk about the fact that the makeup of the fed of the voting members for the fed changes after the turn of the year. you lose two of the most hawkish members of the fomc voting membership, chie cleveland and s city, basically dove and they'll be a change and the market is anticipating that change. we will see what happens. they laughed at me six months ago when the federal move 125 basis points in november and december, we will get the 125 basis point and that may be the end of it as far as tightening is concerned and taking rates higher. the fed will stop for a longer period of time and hold state steady. they said they will take 95 billion out of the balance sheet, that's driving forces of the bull market. the fact they are taking the fuel away is deleterious to prices generally. i've bee

treasury secretary larry summers. thank you for joining us.rrow's expected interest rate hike by the federal reserve, you say and i'm quoting you now there is a growing chorus the fed should pause for fear they will throw the economy into recession. i believe this advice is badly misguided closed quote. why aren't you afraid that the fed could do more harm than good? >> because i think with interest rates at 3% perhaps going to 3 3.75% and core inflation at 7%, the much greater risk is of not doing enough because i look at economic history and i see there are many times when the fed didn't do enough and so inflation reaccelerated and that i can't find any times in the last 60 years of american economic history when the fed did too much because the fed has got a goal. they've been very explicit about it. 2% inflation and even if there is something of a downturn or a recession, i don't see any reason to think that there's any real prospect without a lot more fed action that they're going to push inflation durably below 2%. >> so how high will in

larry summers, who will share some thoughts about. superabundance. we've invited professor summers not just because one of the most important economists in the world, but also because he can be counted to provide critical comments, some of which we may not agree with, all of which will be useful to in refining our own thinking on, this big issue. larry summers is the president emeritus of harvard university, where he holds professorship still. during the past decades, he's served in a series of senior policy positions, including vice president of economics and chief economist, the world bank, director of the national economic council for the obama and secretary of the treasury of the united states. from 1999 to 2001. i could go on, but we would rather hear directly from professor summers. professor summers, thank you for joining by zoom and welcome back to the cato institute. i'm glad to be with you. i wish you had going on. i was rather enjoying all the nice things that you were saying about me and i was remembering what johnson had said when he was

but even larry summers and people argued against tax cuts. it is kind of a strange -- it's like the rest of society got divided among a calmness on political grounds. that gets in the way from doing the science concert economic devices we put out that report led by in large part of reserve. we basically use the literature to say here's what the literature says will happen. is not necessarily what we thought would happen here's what the scientific literatureus say. and it was just completely dismissed it. can you talk aie little bit abot how you see that from a journalistic point of view? it is been a big change with trump that occurred. >> again part of what i was getting at t earlier when i said journalist put aside their traditional standards when it covering in administration and when into the full resistancewa mode. rate the press secretary and not just simply cover but to resist it. you saw this and people major news networks they would this president differently and they did. and as a result stories like the ones i'm trying to tell in t

board this morning out calling it energy policy for dummies, i am sure you saw that secretary larry summers twitter i am not sure i understand the argument for windfall profits of tax if you reduce profitability you he discourage investment on as the of the objective i would love to you explain the bureaucracy this administration put in place to limit the amount of production, so you have joe biden at podium yelling at oil companies left and right saying we want more production but isn't his policy the policy, that has made it difficult to do just that. >> no doubt about it, when joe biden put hand on bible january 20th, 2021 gas on average was 2.39 a demand he went into office killing keystone pipeline disincentivizing american producers that wanting to produce you don't have to be in a convent to know when you limit supply prices go up created by biden executive orders the progressive left my hope once we control the house and senate the biden will come out of this is far-left corner maybe take a page from bill bill in 1995 when republicans swept 1994, say i want to work with republicans,

. >> i don't think larry summers would say that one bill is responsible entirely for inflation.ly say that there are other issues that contributed to it, supply chain issues, the fact that we had a global pandemic -- >> fuel prices. >> -- plenty of criticism to go around. but it's not -- snap their fingers and -- >> the point i think you are -- make probably, as well, is, -- talking point is to be reductive. the idea of trying to condense and synthesize in a way that is eliciting an evoking of additional reaction. and that's part of what is happening. the midterms are a test for the party in power and democrats, by the thinnest of margins, are the party in power, through a global pandemic that has driven malaysia and major entrenched economic problems and all of those right now are overpowering what democrats were hoping could be a debate about women's rights or reproductive rights or democracy or any of these other things. anytime we fill up the gas pump, you are faced with the implications of this and anytime you are pay or your grocery bills you are facing the implications of

larry summers says i'm not sure about the tax on companies.u reduce profitability, discourage investment, the opposite of our objective. so what is your goal with that? >> the goal to provide relief to the american people, just like they are providing relief to the europeans. why aren't they make that argument in europe n there the big oil companies are saying fine, tax us, pay the windfall profits, higher heating costs at the pump, taking the money and giving it to europeans. why is it not good enough for americans. the reality is they are not investing that in new drilling, and the refineries as you know take five years. i am for, we have about 130 refineries in the country, we should have functional refineries working and if we want a plan to make sure we are investing appropriately, let's work in a bipartisan way. >> sandra: have you addressed this at the white house. brian deese says the goal is 0 fossil fuels use in the country. refineries got the message and started shutting down. >> what brian deese is saying, long-term aspiration, mas

programs for people, including childcare, for example, but some economists, including obama official larry summers, says the massive american spending plan contributed in part to inflation and i wonder if you think given inflation right now, we need to put the brakes on more spending and investment in the next couple of years or at least the next year? >> i think the cause of the inflation is the put in war. because of the inflation was the pandemic and the supply chain challenges. of course we have to be careful with spending, but spending has to be paid for. if you just had spending that was deficit spending, that would be inflationary, but if you have spending and add taxes on the wealthy to pay for it, then that spending is productive spending like childcare, not taking up 20% of people's paychecks and helping people get back to work and i think those are things that will help us fight inflation, not create inflation. kristen: tonight, as you know, president trump will make what he's calling a very big announcement at 6:00 our time from mar-a-lago, but any chance it is not to say he is running

we need to make sure that -- >> i'll take larry summers' word for it. okay?ry summers, clinton's treasury secretary, told the biden administration two years ago, you go ahead with the spending you're talking about, and you are going to create enormous inflation, and it's exactly what happened. and we can try to blame it on a whole bunch of other things, but when you put $5 trillion that you printed into the economy after all the money that we put in during covid, that's why you have inflation. and, you know, the fact is, it's got to stop at some point. and the democrats don't want to talk about that because their constituencies are all about, pay me more. in the end sarah is right, that they ceded this ground to republicans because they knew that joe biden couldn't articulate the argument as to why he was better. that's why they have him in union station talking about democracy. could you go to a safer, larger democratic place than the middle of the district of columbia, send him to union station and put him back in the white house before he causes more harm

almost always that's as larry summers pointed out, that leads to recession and young voters are of course, the most vulnerable segment of society. they're the ones actually doing the jobs out there. so this affects them to pretend that pocket book issues don't motivate them, is not to understand young voters tongue holes, then thank you so much for your analysis. really interesting. and my pleasure. thank you for having me. i'm with that you are up to date coming up. next level 3000 has or a report about a used a clothing graveyard in chile, massive heaps of 2nd time, textiles in the attic, kama deserts the stick around for that. if you can like to watch with with who missed fashion as an environmental in a closing graveyard to land. this is where thinking industrial nations no longer a waste gets stranded about the fun in the global fashion industry. global 3000 dw, pico india, a woman embodying to a shot driver. melita, buying her electric taxi isn't making a drastic cut to carbon emissions and see is breaking down gender stereotypes while helping other women at the same time. he goofy

almost always that's as larry summers pointed out, that leads to recession and young voters are of course, the most vulnerable segment of society. they're the ones actually doing the jobs out there. so this or fax them to pretend that pocket book issues don't motivate them, is not to understand young voters tongue holes then thank you so much for your analysis . really interesting. and my pleasure. thank you for having me. now here is something the amazon astronomy among you won't want to miss coming out just after 3 and new york time. on november, the 8th, a total luna eclipse is due to be visible in the skies over large parts of the americas, the pacific and asia. as a phenomenon occurs when the moon passes through the shadow and it will be your last chance to see it for the next 2 and a half, he is unusual events in the skies above us never cease to amaze. a tend to lunar eclipse starts with the moon passing into the faint pounds of the shadow. eventually, it will start pausing. i'm behind the full shadow of the ass, and we'll start to see a partial eclipse or a much darker shadow will

tom: really underlying and underscoring the point by larry summers. remarkable that there are almost two job openings for every one person that is underemployed -- unemployed. bloomberg mliv analysis to, mark cudmore. -- analysis to, mark cudmore. the central bank pushing rates higher. it does add further pressure on the fed to continue with aggressive tightening. very please to say we are now joined by madison faller from j.p. morgan chase. i know you will be zeroed in on the commentary from jay powell. what will you be looking for in particular from that language from jay powell? madison: the good news is that growth is holding up. the bad news is that that pushes the fed further out in terms of how much it needs to employ interest rate hikes. what i need is not so much if we get confirmation of the move, but what is the rhetoric surrounding that move? do we get a sense of the lack affect, potential interest rate hikes ahead? is there a potential pause coming? inflation is still too high and too broad. the markets are flirting with this idea of a po

i have larry summers saying 6% on the terminal rate.u go through another 150 basis points these outflows are not going to stop. is that what i need to assume? where is the terminal rate for you? what are you working off? giulio: i believe we are not going to see much more increase coming from here mostly because rates are going to have to balance between increasing rates further and not creating conditions for a deep recession. rates can go up, i don't expect they are going to go up significantly. it is a matter of timing because if rates go up, we can continue to put pressure on flows and macro -- eventually rates are going to stop going up. dani: where did they stop? what is the level you think they will go to? you say rates have hit x, they stay steady? giulio: if you ask me i believe as we go into 2023 you are going to start seeing the change, the stabilization. we are going to start seeing the flows coming back. we need to wait until the beginning of next year, the summer of next year. i think it is better to be on the prudent side

larry summers said inflation would get worse with these bills and he was right. republicans were right. but the leadership on capitol hill was wrong. the other thing we have to do is open up america's energy sector. joe biden shut down pipelines and permitting for oil and gas leases. he also made it impossible to invest in ohio's oil and gas sector. that rising energy price people see at the pump, farmers paying more for diesel, that's the direct result of policies enacted by joe biden and nancy pelosi and supported 100% by tim ryan. mr. ryan: if i may, j.d., you keep talking about nancy pelosi. if you want to run against nancy pelosi, move back to san francisco and run against nancy pelosi. you're running against me. i put the natural gas provision in the inflation reduction act. i was the one who made sure we had all of the investments in electric vehicles in the inflation reduction act. do you not see what's happening at lordstown? we have four vehicles out there, a truck two cars, and a tractor. , we have a battery plant across the street that was $2.3 billio

like there's contagion down 300 points and dropped a little bit more when we heard from you and larry summersan: yeah, the dow is down and nasdaq and cryptocurrency trade. stu: susan, thank you for jumping on that fast. my next guest makes software for self-driving trucks. how about that. alex rodriguez is the chief executive of embark trucks and joins me now. at this point, your software, you still need a driver in the truck, don't you? >> yeah, testing on pub lib roads and there's still somebody there to monitor it and that's how we have such an excellent safety record and we're rapidly getting to a point and handling all the situations and we announced earning ands we're really excited to talk about some of the stuff going around emergency vehicles and transfer hubs. stu: what's the end point? are we eventually going to have how long trucks with no driver at all and no one in the passenger seat? is that what we're aiming for? >> that's exactly right. you have driverless trucking operating on the highway portion and you have local driver who picks up the stuff and takes to final destination

i think that's, but larry summers told our colleague ob wolf blitzer last night that he -- we learned today that private sector payroll growth accelerated last month. job openings unexpectedly increased. i wonder if jerome powell will does i he doesn't want to tell graph what he's going to do next. there's just too much going on. he may decide he doesn't want to get boxed in. >> good to see you, matt. >>> so with six days until the votes are tallied in the midterm election, perhaps no state is grabbing as much attention as the commonwealth of pennsylvania. president obama, presid -- cnn' jessica dean is in philadelphia wrapping it all up. what's happening there today? >> reporter: well, day, we're looking at this new cnn polling we released today. it's the issues that matter the most to voters. if you take a look at that, look at the top line, it's the economy. it's the economy by a lot. it's 51%, the next highest is 15%, which was abortion. the economy is what voters are zeroing in on, what they care about the most. it's what we've seen come out again and again, leading up to this el

that was larry summers, the former treasury secretary.now on the s&p down one third of 1%. big conversation this morning about cuts. 11,000 people going at meta. redfin, let's talk about housing. laying off 13% of staff. lisa: they had this home flipping business that they are now shutting down, where they used algorithms to determine the worth of a home. things that move too quickly away from them and their inventory. i will get the details so i can make sure i lay it out correctly, but the fact that they are cutting 30% of staff, after already -- 13% of staff, after already having cuts, where do we end? this is not just a tech company. we expect to hear things from disney, the entertainment business. how much will this be a theme? tom: i don't think we can manage the 3.5% mortgage change to 7.5%. jon: how does the investor committee meeting start? i have asked the question over the last couple of weeks. rates have gone up 400 basis points in the last eight months. is it two years worth of excess or a decade? which one is it? they are ho

stu: lauren, i noticed something here, former treasury secretary larry summers get as lot more publicitye current treasury secretary janet yellen. what's the latest? lauren: he's been speaking out a lot lately and can i first say why he's getting more attention? he's a critic. he keeps saying i don't think a soft landing is possible and inflation is high and keep increasing interest rates 5% in order to bring down inflation. listen here. >> i do not think that the doveish pivot in some of the rhetoric coming out of the fed has yet been warranted by the economic statistics that i have seen. lauren: that doesn't sound optimistic. does the fed go 75 for the fourth time in a row? the answer is likely yes but then what? december, do they go 50 and say maybe 25 in the new year? we don't know. stu: army of people out there watching the fed. it's a cottage industry. it's permanent. they're always there. thanks very much, lauren. coming up, jen psaki claims clas democrats couldn't have fixed inflation even if they tried. >> inflation is a global and shall happening around the world and not a lot

point increase, federal funds rate today but the fed watchers i talked to, it corresponds with larry summersnomist for the nation, the treasury secretary, he's going to meet the 2% inflation target, you are not talking pivot language anytime soon. they expect powell to be very hard on saying something bearish for the market, hawkish on inflation. maybe signal they will do what it takes to get to that 2% inflation targets. fed watchers telling me be careful on this pivot parade. the market likes pivots, they like free money, the fed is less concerned about markets. and we have high inflation down from 8% still at 7% which is been pretty high for the last 40 years or so. if you think the fed will pivot and you buy stocks. people that are paid to interpret what the fed is doing, they are skeptical about that. interesting trade. the market is getting on this. neil: they must be aware, they were hoping to see signs that inflation is buckling. we haven't seen that. they were right that it will take a long time to see these rate hikes come to fruition and have the effect we had but you can't tell m

a nobel prize winner in economics to talk about how much we should read into those numbers it larry summers is not so sure about how much we read into it is all krugman does. exits on the could great show. we are looking forward to it. balance of power's coming up next. it's also jeh johnson, the former secretary, and that's a great show. this is bloomberg. >> from the world of politics, to the world of business, this is balance of power with david westin. >> from world headquarters in new york to the television audiences worldwide, welcome to balance of power. this is all about the cpi numbers in the market reaction, and there is amount of aftermath of that, but some new numbers are in with consumer sentiment, so we are going to look to

guy: larry summers speaking on his hopes for the outcome of the midterm election.ere to talk about the results so far and how will impact u.s. policy and eu relations, aberdeen political columnist. talk us through your reaction to what we've seen so far paid the anticipation of a red wave has not materialized. what policy do we now get? lizzy: going to see likely the republicans take a small majority in the house, but the senate very much remains the tossup. it's likely that the democrats now have a small -- a slightly favorable to retain the control of the senate. what that means is we will see biden have difficulty getting through some of his high spent domestic policy agenda. but we will see him be able people -- keep control of things like judicial appointments which are strategically important as well as be able to still have leverage to negotiate with house republicans over things like the debt ceiling as well as major fiscal policy and things like aid to ukraine which has become more contentious among house republicans. alix: do europeans breathe a sigh of r

that was the old larry summers argument the fed has no chance if they don't break the back of the economyif they can stop at 5 and the economy is trading around trend growth, multiples will expand. that would be the environment we could get to neutral. >> finally, can that scenario unfold if the labor market remains as tight as it is? there's been a lot of discussion about the trajectory of claims and whether that por tends more weakness in the nonfarm payroll than we're used to >> i think there are cracks but it hasn't manifested itself in the traditional indicators yet to the point about does there need to be more weakening, in the labor market, i think in conjunction with the type of lack of weakening i think the fed would like to see, plus any significant rally from here in the equity market has had and will continue to have the effect of loosening financial conditions, which is not a feature of what the fed is trying to do so, i think we're all pretty convinced the fed put has been put to bed, but i wonder if we'll use options language, whether there's a fed call and they might feel

larry summers is talking about the debt ceiling.here everybody thought if there was this red wave, we would have this debt ceiling standoff, i'm not saying we won't but it was perhaps one of the most contentious fiscal issues for the bond market and the dollar. we don't know the result yet, but what do you think markets are going to lean towards? krirt: it's interesting -- kriti: it's interesting,, you are already seeing markets price in this idea of good luck. and there's going to be this question of leverage that republicans play over democrats. this is something that is usually dealt with on a bipartisan level. historically, markets have kind of shrugged that off with the idea that the government will always come around, push the budget further or deal with a debt ceiling in a way that does not shut everything around. this time around is different because republicans are looking to use that as leverage. what's important for the dollar, the investment scenario is that the dollar has been weakening. i believe it's the third day wer

former treasury secretary larry summers agrees with oil industry groups tweeting i'm not sure i understandhe argument, windfall profit tax on energy companies. if you reduce profitability you will discourage investment which is the opposite of our objective. listen to the senior vice president of policy for the american petroleum institute. >> they talk about the need for more supply but respond by shutting down production. they talk about the need for more infrastructure but cancel pipeline projects. they talk about the need to reduce costs and raise taxes. the political rhetoric is one thing but the policies actually matter. >> reporter: there are no changes in policies from this white house, a lot more finger-pointing from the president. neil: this is the first time we've gone to you without that leaf blower. i would like to bring it to you. it is a first. good stuff. very good stuff. let me get through this. jackie deangelis feels the same way. looking at the markets now. the possibility of another 3-quarter point hike, all that coming into play. >> reporter: it is. good afternoon. loo

former treasury secretary larry summers says, fear is misguided. the fed is not doing enough to bring down the prices. >> the much greater risk is of not doing enough because i look at economic history and i see there are many times when the fed didn't do enough so inflation reaccelerated. i can't find any times in the last 60 years of economic history. >> his best guess is items rose by 5 1/2%. >>> did police miss a chance to head off a deadly stampede? >>> plus, new rules that prevent people from throwing out dirty socks and old mattresses. >>> first, candidates fighting to get the support of the black voters at the polls. >> you don't think the outreach is the same? >> absolutely not. they say one thing butut when y look at the policies, they're not reflected. ♪ music: “everywhere” byby fleetwood mac ♪ you ready? ♪ ♪ ♪ can youear me calling ♪ ♪ outour name? ♪ ♪ and i don't know what to say ♪ ♪ oh, i ♪ dude ♪ i want to be with you everywhere. ♪ from bolt to blazer, equinox to silverado, chevy evs are for everyone, everywhere. what if “just an ide

that says we will see inflation fall faster than people expect but then there's the well-known larry summersat says inflation is way too high and you'll have to do more than you've done now. alix: we always tune in when you asked the question a depressor because you ask the question afterwards. what do you think your question is can a wind up being. how will you try and corner powell into making a call in december on the terminal rate? michael: a don't suppose he wants to make the gas on who's in a win the world series. let's hope -- but probably they're going to be a couple of questions on the political impact. this comes just a week out from the midterm election and also where is the balance of risk or another way of framing the question, to do too much or do too little at this point. alix: mike, thanks a lot. let's get more with claudia, of the former federal reserve economist who says in a recent note that if the fed continues the aggressive rate hikes this year it will push financial markets to a breaking point. claudia joins us now. do they do that now, in september, what does that loo

larry summers and others have talked potentially about going to 6%. with all of that going on, a two year yield at about 4.6 looks well and truly undercooked. yvonne: all right, we are aiming closer to five. what does this mean overall when it comes to -- overall, just what market sentiment is going to be like, right? how do i look at smaller pace of hikes, which was seen as dovish, but then a peak rates, which is seemingly hawkish? was the market right to make that call that this is a hawkish statement? garfield: well, i think the market is having a strong expectation that the fed wanted to frontload hikes and then pause. now, there is obviously perhaps a hidden -- very well hidden, a little bit of concern within the policymaking space that you cannot keep on delivering 75 basis point hikes in china, so you do need to slow down. because you are getting to a point where there is some traction flows, rate hikes, there is some impact. the problem is as long as inflation is at a level like that, you cannot be countenance and, you know, and and to rate hi

so you don't have things like larry summers talking about stagflation. these are not coincidences. they are seeing what's going on behind the scenes and seeing people's savings accounts being tapped into just to pay for the essentials. fuel, food, rent. they still are at very elevated levels. federal reserve will raise rates again. expect a half point hike. 2023, while it is going to be a new day, it is also going to be an opportunity to assess where we are. it will likely be recession. >> bill: don't like that. >> dana: your guest this morning, you were asking a lot of them if they think there will be a double dip recession. >> kevin has yet said we'll see every single quarter negative for 2023. jason smith going to likely be the chairman of the house ways and means committee is talking about the economy weakening. yeah, i think everybody on that panel is expecting that 2023 will be a tough road. >> bill: important stuff and you'll take us through it. we'll get a bump when the market opens. >> 700 points higher right now. >> bill: thank you so much. republicans now inching closer

history is showing that in the absence of gridlock, biden's 2021 fiscal splurge, it looks like larry summerss right, it was too much. you won't get any more of that after these midterms. manus: alan, thank you for joining us. short and sweet: the midterms. alan higgins the coutts cio. we speak exquisitely to the greek prime minister at cop 27 in just under nine minutes time right here on bloomberg. ♪ manus: let's get the first word news, simone foxman joins us from doha. simone: we have learned the european commission does not now see a price cap on natural gas as the best way to fix the energy crisis. brussels presented its analysis of possible actions in a meeting of member states yesterday. the eu is said to favor a mechanism to spread the high gas costs over time. a report says u.k. boardrooms are increasingly frustrated with london's institutional investors and the proxy agencies that guide them. the survey of ftse 100 chairs by apr form -- a pr firm found companies are spending too much time on regulation instead of running businesses. ftse chairs say the proliferation of rules has res

see going up 4.75, 5, maybe even above that, and in that you have good company in the form of larry summers. i know you recently added to fixed income from cash i guess that's because you see it as paying a better rate, number one, and that most of the interest rate hikes may well be behind us. do i have your thinking correct? >> that's right. one of the things that's so painful is the speed with which rates have adjusted. we've heard that from chair powell, so even if we get some modest -- no -- and lower rye it is rates should be tolerability, you know, definitely better returns for bonds and investors. if you have a mild re session, and another small leg lower in equities, we would expect fixed income to be that diversifier that it was not in 2022. so we wanted to increase a bit of exposure there and make sure we have a full allocation to buy. >> meghan shue, we appreciate it. >> thank you. >>> a clean start, a company that's removing emissions from a that's removing emissions from a cement plant t can he stand on his own... once he's all on his own? this is financial security. and linco

rates and tightening the money supply until -- >> sandra: you have been in that camp, art laffer, larry summersaid off. >> factually, all right, commodity prices have dipped so the fed is gaining on it. factually, the money supply has slowed a lot so the fed is gaining on it. ok? alls i'm saying is they should finish the job. don't let it languish, and try not to confuse market -- real money is on the line. average households have lost, i don't know, 30, $35,000 in their retirement accounts this year, nobody is happy about that, so i'm just saying you know, this word salad stuff is very disconcerting. the ambiguity of it all, i don't know why it has to be -- i don't know why the fed -- can i just tell you this, i worked for paul volker a long time ago, his gopher guy, secretary, when he was president of the new york, before he ran federal reserve. volker was old school. he did not forecast, he didn't try to give you guidance, he just did what he felt was the right thing to do and it worked, it worked. take the band aid off and just -- the sooner they fix this problem, and the sooner we unleash

. >> you can ask larry summers. >> he wouldn't say one bill is responsible.ther things contributed like supply chain issues, the fact that we had a global pandemic and all those other things. there is plenty of criticism to go around. but what i'm saying is it's not something that if the republicans were there, that they would be able to snap their fingers and fix. >> i think the point you're probably going to make too, the point of the midterms or the point of talking points is to be reductive. the idea to condense and synthesize in a way that is evoking an evisceral reaction. >> yeah. >> and that's part of what is happening. >> the midterms are a test for the party in power. a and the democrats by the thinnest of margins are the party in power through a global pandemic that has driven malaise and major entrenched economic problems. and all of those right now were overpowering what democrats were hoping could be a debate about women's rights or reproductive rights or democracy or any of these other things. every time you fill up the gas pump, you're faced wi

. >> sandra: larry summers, he's now talking about the president's plans to tax the big oil companies, says this, i'm not sure they understand the argument, for windfall profit tax on energy companies if. if you redues profitability, you will discourage investment, the opposite of our objective. ok, think about that. the president is saying they are not going to bring the prices down, not their responsibility, they are private companies, profitability should be their goal, period. he wants to tax them saying if you are not going to bring down prices you are going to pay for it. >> he penalized them once and created the situationer in with respect to domestic production, cancelling of the extension of the keystone pipeline, that's why the companies are not reinvesting some profits. if you penalize them with more taxes because you are angry about the price of gas, it chips away at the fundamentals of the system. that's not how capitalism works. when the companies saw oil companies, $25 a barrel and not profiting as much, they were not. now the market sets the case, oil is higher, we are

that was larry summers, former treasury secretary come over the weekend.t looks like this, s&p 500, equity futures negative through much of the morning. blame someone, anyone, i guess you could pick governor waller. futures down .3%. yields up by six or seven basis points. in 2022, seven basis points is nothing. euro-dollar 1.03, reclaiming that peer down about .5%. governor waller saying take a deep breath, calm down, after a downside surprise on cpi last week. lisa: the fact shares are not down more tells you how much markets are buying into this. governor waller is not making that big of an impact after last week. jonathan: 11:30 a.m. eastern time, the bloomberg washington dc bureau chief peggy collins having a conversation. when watching the statement and in the news conference, it was looked as if it was not towards vice chair brainard. lisa: her cumulative tightening stood out, and then the conference said we do not really care. does she push back today with peggy collins? jonathan: what did brian chesky say? feels like we are in a nightclub and the

we also heard from larry summers, for example, he thinking it would be a mistake to pause here, because inflation is still too high. there have been some new numbers out just this week that really support this idea that more work is needed from the fed. we learned that private-sector payrolls last month unexpectedly acsited. job openings in september went up. about that's the opposite of what the fed wants to see. if they don't do enough you can see -- and if they end up doing too much, they could end up causing a recession. >> we saw a case study in which, really impact the economy as well. everyone focuses on the firm transitory. the pandemic, obviously, the war in ukraine, and a looming rail str strike, how much does it factor into how jay powell are meeting and talking about raising rates? >> they are in some sense transitory, though i think the word "transitory" means twice as long as we wish it would be. there's some unusual factors raising inflation. you drive a car not by looking out the back window. that shows us a high inflation, but by looking forward, when we look forward, t

larry summer wills tell you that as well, who's a democrat top economist.you had both of them together, and now the fed's got to put the genie back in the bottle and it's never easy. i'm telling you, this is a market that is so addicted to this stuff. you know, here's the thing, we should have a economy that is not the market. i mean, the markets are great. you know, we want to trade stocks, we want to invest in a long term, but that shouldn't be the economy. the economy for the average person is hurting and here's why, inflation. you can work two jobs and still can't afford eggs. liz: would you agree, you can't have it both ways, can't have low borrowing costs and low prices. dutch just went off on the fed. i'm not sure i agree with that. >> by the way, you can have that. but not in this environment after massive money printing and after creating stock market bubbles that are insane. not after creating a housing bubble that you can't afford a house right now. not after creating inflation where an average person -- my liz: organic,. >> no. screamly? >> it i

even larry summers says, by the way, if we get a recession, it won't be very bad and entrenched inflationan anything else. >> parsing words here, she said we're not having meetings. it doesn't mean they're not preparing. they're well aware of what the headwinds are. what i'm hearing from everyone here, all of you business experts is that coming out of covid, we don't really have the metrics to measure this new economy. >> exactly. covid broke the charts. it broke the charts so now we sit here, we're trying to figure out what it means. when i ask economists and ceos finish this sentence, the economy is x. they say confusing, chaotic, hard to read. they don't really know exactly. >> i think it was jason furman, an economist, who said recently, if you're not a little confused about the economy, you're not paving attention. think about what the pandemic did. it created a lot more savings. people are still spending because they have a cushion. so the pandemic did really strange things, not just in terms of our economicing accounts and balance sheets but also supply chains. so there are a lot o

even larry summers says that's not going to work. >> taxing the oil companies will not bring more oil out of the ground or get us more refineries, i think is one of the main crux of the issue. we have not had a major refinery built since 1977. some say well, you know, not in my back yard, and yet all kinds of movements for yes in my back yard for other things. if you look at the profits, this industry lost almost 300 billion. >> during covid. >> from 2010 to 2020, very lean years. a couple times oil was negative, no one thought could ever happen. >> i remember well. >> in the last couple years they are just now getting that money back. again, this is just from operating. it's so wrong for him to declare war on the fossil fuels industry, they cannot reach out to wall street for major money to go for the projects, if the white house truly wanted to help the american public then they would say let's be reasonable and smart and intelligent about this, make life easier for people as we make this transition to whatever green utopia they think is possible. it's not right around the corner. a

rebate, not surprisingly the oil industry thinks that's a terrible idea but got some support from larry summersndfall tax profit would actually backfire because it would discourage investment, which is exactly the opposite of what you want to do. abby, no easy answers here, especially if you ran as a pro-climate president as this one did. >> yeah, especially given that this threat is coming at a political time when the president wants to make a point about being tough on oil companies. i did want to ask about food. food prices are also way up. the food you eat at home, the food you eat in restaurants, what's happening there with the companies, the bigger companies that are a source of a lot of the price increase. >> yeah, the bigger companies have been able to do just fine throughout this. we've seen double digit profit increases from pepsi and coke and chipotle and they've also all been raising prices, pepsi, for instance, raised its prices by 17% year over year. their bottom line up by 20% and all of this is raising the cost of living for americans. we've seen prices for groceries, dairy, res