maria: are john lonski. john: i think christine is right we are having a recession next year that recession pushes interest rates, lower, you know that is a message we're now getting from the inverted yield curve a two year treasurers yield less than current rate 4.4% i wouldn't be shocked if by the end of 202310-year yield was close to 3% federal fund rate also lower, one reason to expect a recession, lower interest rates is the housing recession, that is a sector that is now getting clobbered we are going to get a report november's new home sales later this morning should -- that ought to show weakness we saw with existing home sales, on consumer spending front that retail sales report, showed reductions not only for furniture appliance stores sales but as also showed that building material store sale were down from previous month, in month of november, all of that is a consequence of -- the ongoing housing recession. maria: yeah, well congressman greg murphy you are on house ways and means do you expect a

i've got john lonski here. world we're talking about potentially military conflict between the two and i wanted to bring john in, go ahead, john. >> i mean, this makes no sense. china is an export powerhouse. it depends greatly on its trade with the rest of the world to develop its own economy. but yet at the same time china appears to be antagonizing the rest of the world with their growing military reach. how do you resolve what appears to be two conflicting strategies on the part of china? >> john, you're spot-on. it's really a deep contradiction in the way in which china is proceeding. on the one hand, pushing very arrogantly its ambitions to become the great global hedgeemon and push the u.s. and topple it as the world's leading super power. on the other hand, china is totally dependent on the global economic system that we built, that the united states and its allies built and maintained since world war ii. so i think one of the things we need to make clear to china is, is that in the event we end up in so

john lonski. >> this includes three half billion dollars to help control the border situation that isng to get into the united states i should say, let's not forget this package promises more terms of price inflation, more government debt if you get more inflation were government debt you are going to have higher interest rates than otherwise and as we well know by now the interest rates currently stand that is very bad news for the equity market and is very bad news for the housing market. maaria: have the republicans agree to having something in their this is border security and is not for border security at all it's not even allowed to be used to send anybody back, the money there is only being used for more housing the illegal migrants and benefits for the illegals coming in and how did they look at us with a straight face after giving 410 billion to all of the middle eastern countries, for our border. egypt, tunisia. >> , they look at us with a straight face and allocate $65 million for restoring the pacific salmon population. after they look at us with a straight face after allo

cheryl: the cycle president john lonski and former new york gubernatorial candidate john gaspirino.oes bob jordan survive all this? your thoughts? >> it'll be a rough going for the ceo and one of the complaints is southwest did not invest sufficiently in technology that would have helped to avoid this problem if it was avoidable at all and we had very bad weather, just went from entering the peak traveling season. cheryl: mike, we had robert trantora on yesterday and he's with southwest and listen to what he told me and the company executives reached out to us during this. >> finding out and informing us of what's going on and the recovery plan we've been left in the dark on and it's incredibly frustrating for us. cheryl: as of yesterday, rob, no one from the company reached out to the pilots union and people that fly the planes. >> those guys. it's amazing you have to pay for peanuts, get your luggage on there, you have to take your belt and shoes off, it's the worst experience now going to an airport and flying on airlines. you think they'd get it right. it's not like they didn't

john lonski whose an economist is sitting next to you.ne else to pick your live tree for you? >> absolutely not because treats are heterogeneous. they come in different sizes, shapes, some are skinny, some are fat, i wouldn't trust anybody. i have to do it myself with the help of my wife and my son. we all have to agree on it. we vote on it that's why there are three people. stuart: i'm not going to ask susan. >> mendelsohn be proud, he's the one that found how to split atoms and cells to grow trees. that's where i thought he was going. i would go with real trees. we don't do fake trees. stuart: fair enough i have to get serious. let's talk about tesla. it's a mover, susan what do you have on it? >> yeah, so we have tesla selling off once again, goldman sachs reducing their stock worth 235 from over 300 initially and that's because of weakening demand. you know tesla is offering $3,700 in incentive right now that you get cash back if you buy tesla before years end. doesn't that sound good to you, stu? stuart: not bad. >> they are also cut

we need an economist and john lonski is here. john?y, that number is an eight-year high for holiday debt. why are people just spending and spending despite not having the money? caution to the wind almost. >> well, i think they still believe they have a lot of money in their bank account. they have a lot of cash on hand but unfortunately, that's not the case for most americans. last week, we had an article in the "wall street journal" that said a major source of consumer loans has reduced its lending to what you call near-prime borrowers. those are consumers with a credit score of between 620-659 points. they reduced lending to that group by 50%, because they have detected a reduction in their cash holdings as well as this drop in personal savings. listen, when you add to this , this increase in debt, sky-high heating bills that are likely to start showing up in the mailbox come this january, i'd be braced for quite a slowdown by consumer spending in the early months of 2023. ashley: and as we look ahead, john, i was just making a list

well john lonski is here and john it's a big week for housing data.ore existing home sales in about a half hour, 45 minutes from now. what are you expecting? >> well i'm looking forward to a decline of about 3% from the previous month. i think we'll be down 32% from a year ago, a pace of 4.3 million units analyzed. you know, when we really had those super-low interest rates back there in the second half of 2020, 2021 -- david: artificially low. >> and that is the problem. we had the 30-year mortgage yield averaging only 2.9%, that sales pace was above 6 million units so we're running down by about one-third of a 30- something percent below what we had back then and the warning here is that with mortgage yield s significantly higher and unlikely to breakdown towards 3% anytime soon, unfortunately, we are going to be looking at lower home prices over the next 12-18 months. david: mortgage rates did just come down a tick. they are still well-over 6% but they are below 7%. do you think they are going to go above 7%? >> i hope not. i doubt it because i see

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bring in john lonski now. i want to go through one by one. john lonski, folks, a great economist.et establishment number, 2, almost 3 million, 2.7 million, household 12,000? one has got to be wrong. >> you're definitely right, but perhaps the truth is somewhere in between. the establishment survey counts number of jobs, the household survey counts number of people working. there must be a big increase in number of people holding more than one job. charles: we did see that, we did see that, that would not account for the big discrepancy. here is another thing people didn't talk about. establishment is survey. they send out a survey. the respond dent respond. no respondents. 20-year low. they didn't reply. our pool of potential data shrinks to this. how likely is that any good? >> that is not a good sign as far as having confidence in the november jobs report. it tells me that there is reason to expect a drastic revision over the next couple of months. ordinarily you get 60% of those that are contacted respond to the survey. charles: right. >> this time it dropped down to 49% as you

markets are sliding today as investors mull recession risk john lonski, let's see if ceo's polling theirustomers, clients to see whether or not they should quit? >> absolutely not. i think that's highly unlikely to happen, and i'm doubtful that elon musk is going to go ahead and resign from twitter, because of the outcome of this poll. >> gerry: its been a very rough year for the tech sector. we've seen huge stock declines, some of those meta is down nearly 70% i think that i looked at google is down 30%, amazon is down 50%. they are laying off workers. is this 2022 been kind of a turning point for the tech sector do you think? >> oh, i think it is. you won't see the top growth you observed in the past. these have become very large mature companies. they will have difficulty growing much faster than the overall economy. when i look ahead i see nominal gdp growth, maybe averaging, maybe nothing more than four to 5% over the next five years. >> gerry: and we should also wait and see what's going to happen to sam bankman-fried. i know you've talked a little bit about this before, that some

joining the conversation all morning long, dagen mcdowell and john lonski. and dagen, i'm really what happy that the new york post did the work to actually identify those people who i referred to weeks ago a, working at these social media companies. they're not journalists. they're political hacks that were working in government and got jobs in twitter and facebook and google. dagen: it is a g golden road tt leads from government, if you're a democrat, into these silicon valley giants, if you will. so the fbi's declining to list the other social media companies that it paid $3.5 million to twitter for reimbursement. it said, the fbi did, to fox news that this is legally required. it raises -- it's not going to reveal this information. i would -- i would posit, i would guess that it would be quite frightening to find out all of the instances that the fbi had to pay social media companies for work because there would be so many. and it would raise the issue of what were these social media companies gathering? what information were they digging for for the fbi?

joining me now for hot topics john lonski rob astorino. >> washington lovers to spend politicians going to politic biden administration taking more money n to do what we don't know. >> they are spending money from stimulus and covid, and it is sitting in buckets, and spending more, allocating more, 4,000 pages of omnibus bill nobody knows what is in it, it what it comes outspent going to make things worse, and i think america is in for a really rough 2023 we've seen '22 bad more problems coming, coming to light request republicans the gavel, quiet suppressed by biden administration, now i think we are going to start to see things like twitter files a peek into what we deal with i think in '23. >> what worries me are -- tax hikes for natural gas, crude oil. you know my goodness i look at my recent gas heating bill went through the roof. but that was before it really got cold in the month of december. going to get even worse, this tells me that a lot of americans are going to discover that because of higher heating costs fuel costs in general, their purchasing power of the index has been

stocks higher today and wall street attempt as year-end rebound and luke lloyd and john lonski are here. luke, i want to start with you. 2023, will it be any better for the markets? >> sadly, no. i think the next six months at least will be a lot like the past six months and you'll have the same bear market bounces and the key take away we're in a bear market going lower and some sort of recessions in 2023 seems to be the consensus view right now. what's up in the air is how deep that recession will be. so since the recession seems to be so visible, there's a lot of people hedging their possessions right now in the stock market. since anybody knows about the recession there won't be one and a contrary hedges on the market and not a shock and big drop like the covid crash and it'll be the exam same slow drawn out cuts and bruises adds up to being pretty bad. >> the grinch visited you last week. edward: john, you're a big picture guy. >> we had great conversation. edward: yeah, big picture guy looking at the market and what sectors do you believe might show growth in 2023 as we look at th

matter a case of -- >> a great kfks congressman gregg murphy anthone a schlapps dagen mcdowell john lonski might be one of the last days we are together of you amazing christmas present your show bottom line with sean i want to say i am going to is the you terribly i wish you best of luck merry christmas, knock them dead! dagen: i am not going yet i want to pop up just wanted to say it i am going to be out next week. >> thank you i love you so much, merry christmas. >> lauren: merry christmas, maria, merry christmas, everybody and good morning, i am lauren simonetti in for stuary varney today. we have to begin with unfortunately the weather. the massive storm sweeping ink across country bringing record breaking cold, life threatening wind, chills to 150 million people, it is snarling traffic and unleashing chaos and misery at the airports. drama on capitol hill. the senate has passed the massive $1.7 trillion spending bill. it is now in the house where they are expected to vote on it today. chad pergram will give us the state of play. ftx's sam bankman-fried has post ed a record $250 milli