on this issue i would not look to harker for leadership i think harker is one of those ones who -- i think he's right they're closer to being done but it's the whole thing here that we're talking about what has happened with this inflation report, melissa, two thing, one the realization, disinflation is not a linear process and there will be days like in that come along and you'll have to stomach them and believe in your prediction that inflation bloodily is many coming down but it will take time so the question is, now where is the risk and i think when you look at that fed rate outlook chart you can see risk skewing to the right side of that chart towards that small group of fed officials that are in that 5.40 rake is i'm not saying they're going there but i've been on this camp of come hell or high water it is going to 5 and i think that's accurate how much further they go, in the august contract flirting with that extra quarter that might bring them up towards 5.40 levels so they're all -- put it this way, it's getting boring. i read all the speeches and they're all coming to the

it's not life did have easement, he has been anger and harker mathias. we appreciate your reporting. germany as chance, earl of schultz as making his 1st official visit to india could be accompanied by a high ranking business delegation on arrival scholes was met by indian prime minister nor under moody. the today talks are expected to focus on economic ties, defense cooperation, and the global impact of russia's born ukraine. india is one of only a few nations that has refused to condemn russia for its invasion. goes up to them, that is other chi dw south asia bureau chief emory de chima is in delhi for us falling chancellor shelters visit. and she told me more about the timing and the priorities of the trip. well this is a chance to all the shows is 1st visit to india as a chancellor. though he and prime minister more the med several times last year. now india horse, the g 20 presidency. so that's one of the reasons why he is here at this point. but also because he promised a bilateral meeting with prime and in must a prime minister more the last year

d, w, 's mathias bellinger and harker mathias. we appreciate your reporting. germany's chance or all of sholtes as meeting with his indian counterpart in new delhi. the today talks to the prime minister, miranda moody are expected to focus on deepening economic ties between the 2 countries and also strengthening defense cooperation. this is shorter is the 1st official visit to india since taking office in 2021. he is accompanied by a high ranking business delegation. differences remain between the 2 nations over russia's born ukraine. india has so far, refused to condemn moscow's invasion at a joint press conference just a short while ago. india's prime minister repeated calls for a diplomatic solution for the war ukraine. he bought a play dialogue or liberal around the time developments in ukraine started. india has emphasized the dispute should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy, yoga than than italy if they are. india is ready to contribute in any piece process, right? you raise rig was the val, whatever. but we also re

and, again, i think this is when you go back to the fed, the number is why you're seeing patrick harker worry a little more about what the fed needs to do to yet inflation down because we're just not getting a lot of relief on this super core figure, if you will. liz: yeah. although you look at the underlying momentum, and you find it many jobs, gary. [laughter] we saw that banger of a jobs report for january, and it almost feels like the fed is saying, look, this economy is -- and david solomon of goldman sachs pointed it out -- there's this possibility of a soft landing. things won't be as horrific as people might anticipate, but that said, there's this huge question mark about inflation. did you see used cars started to come down the in price, and yet we still see airline ticketses skyrocketing. i mean, it's a new versus that -- a this versus that. >> job markets one of the strockest i've seen. bottom line going forward, there's no way an economy that is used to no inflation for so many years is going to stay in good shape if inflation stays at 6%, even at 5%. you've got to will be b

fed speak continues with bowman on monday, followed by barkin, logan, harker and williams on tuesday. the u.s. inflation print also on tuesday. then, a read from the u.k. on wednesday. finally, u.s. ppi thursday. plus, more fed speak throughout the week. still with us, george bory, zach griffith and eric nelson. it is time for the rapid fire round, we are talking three questions, three quick answers. zach, i want to start with you. which is more likely, that cpi surprises to the upside or the downside on tuesday? >> downside. katie: george. >> downside. katie: eric. >> upside. katie: zach, does the two stents curve invert or on invert in 2023? >> yes. katie: george. >> no. katie: eric. >> yes. katie: u.s. jumped spreads are currently around 400 basis points. zach, do we get to 300 or 501st? >> 300. katie: george. >> 300. katie: eric. >> 500. katie: all right, guys. appreciate it. great job as we count down to that ucs -- uscp i print on tuesday and as we digest the fed speak we got this week. jerome powell was the headline. from new york, that does it for us. same time, same place nex

a just 0. scores of afghans have fled their homeland since the taliban take over in a special to harker for $1.00 oh, $1.00 east fall is to women. determined to build new lives fire from home on al jazeera. ah, we'll just here. when ever you oh.

in a special to harker point $11.00 east. as to women, determined to build new lives far from home on al jazeera, with . welcome to the stream at 17. it's been 10 days since earthquakes caused catastrophic damage and northwest syria, leaving thousands dead and millions displaced homes. hospitals and roads have been destroyed, and families are grieving, loved ones, while trying to survive the aftermath themselves. today we ask, why aren't syrians getting the help they need and what can be done about it? let's start today's conversation with the video comments sent to us from xena and him. i believe the main reason for not getting that very much needed aids into a north and syria is not the current war situation, nor the status of the border. it is mainly the lack of will. i'm the lack of interest by that international community to help the syrians who are living inside . i think the whole world has got used to syrians being killed for that. not to be a big and uncertainty the bureaucracy of the you and that doesn't take into c

coming in, the new president of the chicago fed, austin goolsb y, patrick harker, minneapolis president considered dovish or somewhat centrist. there is little difference between the views. 17 of the 19 members saw the fed's target rate reaching over 5% by the end of this year. and nine c rate cuts in 2023. the voters change, but the policy remains the same. francine: that was michael mckee on who's in and he was out of the fomc. we have a great decision day guide on our website. we will push that out on our social media channels. the federal reserve likely pushing back against any suggestion it will halt interest rate increases. that is the view of jeffrey gundlach. we had a lot of time with him yesterday, interesting to see how he sees traders positioning in terms of dollar until the end of the year. the other big story is the budget in india. prime minister narendra modi has been commenting on the full year 2024 budget. this is what stocks are doing overall. indian stocks rallied, and then they lost ground. higher government spending on roads, ports and infrastructure while keeping t

liz: patrick harker said he does not expect they recession.n a couple months, what do you see on the horizon. >> the conventional wisdom, people thought a hard landing was inevitable. people doing soft landing at the fed might steer us and that direction. don't think we will have a recession this year. liz: where are you putting the cash you are waiting to deploy? 's is it in treasuries? i was noticing the 6-month yield right now, we can put it up at the moment. it is climbing exponentially at the moment almost at 5%. >> the best thing is put your money in private equity deals. the treasury yield is astoundingly high compared to the last 5 or 10 years so people are living off their savings, but people like me, private equity gets better rates. liz: people can deed dues where the public markets might be, sort of related. an extended arm. where in private equity do you see opportunity? >> healthcare. when i work in the white house 40 years ago the healthcare, gdp was 7%, 21 or 22%, people are living longer and want better healthcare and more mon

philly fed harker said odds of a soft landing have grown. by the way he is not the only one.ore and more talk of a potential soft landing. retail investors i just talked about them, maybe getting too cocky here? check this out. the most recent survey bull to bear sentiment. bullish sentiment to bearish sentiment the highest ratio since november of 2021. why is that distinctive? that was the all-time high for the market. but i got to tell you something, this week, rest of the year comes down to the cpi report. it comes out tomorrow before the opening. here is a twist, new seasonal ad justment that makes the guessing game harder. it is on valentine's day maybe that is a good omen. we have crossmark cio bob doll. i read the takeaways in your note this morning. for the most part the negatives outweigh the positives, so what does that mean for the stock market? >> i think it's a little ahead of itself, charles. look, i cannot ignore the sentiment numbers you just mentioned, the fact that the money supply has deteriorated, it is negative year-over-year, that the yield curve is the

barkin, harker, logan and now williams, four >> and who might replace -- >> and who read all four speeches you know why i read them so you didn't have to. >> so we didn't have to. i'm loving that. >> quick final coda. in terms of short list to replace brainard anything you're hearing? >> i have not heard anything it's interesting to think if the white house would want someone who was inside the white house for that job powell doesn't quite get a say in it. he kind of gets a little veto maybe, which is don't give me that person to work with but it wouldn't be his pick. he would have a say in it. >> a lot of people say this puts brainard in position to succeed janet yellen should janet yellen depart or not take the role in a second biden administration, should there be such. >> i think there is thinking that janet yellen will step down perhaps sometime during the year there's that thinking out there. and that brainard would be a person who would be high on the list or a person of interest >> i just can't imagine someone coming from a biden white house onto the fed wouldn't be dovish. i'm not

charles: before today i think it was friday harker, philly fed, he actually spoke today at 11:30.t a chance to listen to that but he did say, acknowledge there was a greater chance of a soft landing. we're hearing fed officials say that now. they wouldn't say it out loud if they didn't believe it was sop somewhat true, would they? >> no. i think what they're looking at this elusive thing we hear every cycle, the rolling recession, where every sector of the economy corrects at a different time because they're not synchronized. you avoid an actual recession. the thing is normally if the economy is bumbling close to zero long enough it falls into the actual recession and if they're trying to boost the unemployment rate, i think it is inevitable. charles: all right. so other things, right, besides, besides the cpi report. the housing meltdown in the last 55 years. we're going to put a chart on that to let folks see. one of these lines is not like the other. the one at the bottom, folks, that are is where you're living in. cardboard box demand plummets. should be the thing on the stree

harker is there. jefferson. neel kashkari. christopher waller richard, atlanta and san francisco. >> in recent meetings, how unanimous is it? >> it has been fairly close. >> they do what powell wants them to do >> mostly. i think they have discussions and that discussion definitely helps to determine where the vote will go that's why you have to listen even if you are not a voting member you have a voice. >> i'm trying to figure out if people are still affected by not doing anything for two years they are throwing caution to the wind or if there is money left from the stimulus programs this is lasting and the economy after what looked like it was starting to roll over a little and back with a vengeance. >> bank of america will tell you people have more money and more cash in their accounts >> they saved it up? >> more money coming in and a strong jobs market and wages have gone up if you have a job and you feel your job is secure, you don't have too much much a problem saying i'll do this. >> any other time, you would say this

coming in the new president of chicago fed, austan goolsbee, philadelphia's patrick harker and dallas'sand minneapolis's neel kashkari. all are considered dovish or somewhat centrist. there is a distance between the views of the hawks and doves on the fed's open market committee. 17 of the 19 members saw the fed 's target rate reaching over 5% by the end of this year. and one -- n one see rate cuts in 2023. the voter change but the policy remains the same. rishaad: all right. let's have a look at the first word news now with -- pulling off a $2.5 billion sale for his flexure company thanks to a surge in business. fully subscribed on the final day. mainly by institutional investors. meanwhile adani is said to put up $300 million to maintain collateral cover for a $1 billion loan from banks including barclays. last week's system glinch is triggering thousands of damage is claims. sources say the likes of charles schwab and citadel exhibitor requests, but there told the claims are likely to exceed $500,000. the exchange sets aside each month to cover disruptions. from reserve tightening in

we've had -- i think we'll get logan harker williams.what degree does this all get chewed up today? >> they're going to say the job is not done. they'll probably speak in unison about the possibility we might have to do a little more, maybe the peak rate we handicapped in december is not quite there. i don't know the temperature has been dialed down just a little bit at this point. what's interesting is the market responds even to a pretty poor earnings season hasn't been terrible it's not as if the market built up these calluses last year that means it can't get hurt, but there was a little bit of resistance to bad news >> when you say pretty poor earnings season. it's kind of hinteresting to hea poor what are you looking at when you use that word? >> the beat rate the absolute year-over-year growth and also the change in the first quarter estimates that has occurred, the cuts in first quarter earnings estimates based on what's come out for the fourth quarter number. you're down three percentage points since the beginning of the year ba

if she were pat harker that might explain the philadelphia fed numbers. s&p -46. we will drag mckee into this because of his experience with 1998 and imf moments. i have been wanting to speak to damian sassower. he is expert it buenos aires inflation, black-market pesos 300 73 according to bloomberg news. how close are we to bailing out argentina, nigeria? damien: we have to look where we were 6, 7 months ago. the imf has done a good job it and playing the playing ground. the move we have seen in credit default swaps, along the perimeter for the most distressed economies. el salvador, ghana, they've all come crashing down, i'm talking 50, 60. the probability for the credit default swap it tells you it's down considerably. there are only six emerging markets that have a one year implied default probability which is better than where we were. it's still pretty bad. lisa: what we're seeing right now, the deterioration is notable. a 1.5 decline in the nasdaq. two year yield surging to new 2023 highs. nearly 4.67%. how much has the em trade and the willingness

patrick harker said "we are reaching a point where we have done enough."ng to be 5%, how much above five it is going to depend on what we are seeing. tom: i thought the research reports off of the inflation report and i think it will be the same at 9:00, 10:00 and 11:00 off of retail. julian emanuel well and mr. hyman refer -- affirms 2.5% inflation by the end of the year, as -- is that an outlier? jonathan: what is the rate call? tom: i did not read that far. i mean that is looking for a lower 10-year yield is what it sums up. it is a jumble right now. jonathan: i cannot agree more. i was speaking to tom barker yesterday and there is so much they do not know about this economy. they are still feeling their way through. tom: it is original and off the pandemic and what kind of inflation or retail sales. we can get a combined tuesday and wednesday brief with the head economist at wells fargo. link the two reports together, how do you link inflation tuesday with retail wednesday, how do you do that? sarah: i think it comes down to what is happening in the de

we'll hear from governor wallace and president harker.ikely passes, is still elevated. that is what makes the case for us to stay the course". an hour after the cpi report, there will be fresh fed speak. tom: then retail sales the following day which i believe is wednesday. i was thinking about that right now. gregory staples roy does right ahead of fixed income with a very transient note that takes us back to a previous speaker, john williams. you say this discussion has serious merit and you really extend out your view because of the mutual rate ministry we have in 2020. gregory: that is right. a lot of the dialogue is whether the peak rate for the next few months is fog. i think the fed is pushing back against an amplitude higher than that. what they are trying to implement that we heard from waller is they want to emphasize the duration of it. just raise incident to any but how long they will stay is he the peak rate. they are pushing back hard against the concept that they will have to these in july or august and they want to make th

and dallas fed president at 11:00, patrick harker at 1:00 and then john williams at 2:00. to raise 25 and another 25. the market seems an agreement. we are data dependent but do they give some sense of the willingness to go more restrictive? at 1:15 we get president biden speaking of a whole host of issues in washington. chips, the inflation reduction act, especially in light of what we have been seeing with respect to international competition with europe. what is he going to say about lael brainard? how will that inform his run in 2024 but also the strategy for the federal reserve of which she was more dovish? jonathan: one hour and 24 minutes away. thank you. lisa: thank you. jonathan: i will forward that address later. joining us is anna han of wells fargo. your research yesterday, thank you for being with us. why is the bear market over? anna: when you look at the signs in the market you are seeing the credit spreads compress. that is something that is rare in this time when the market is expected to fall into recession. you are also seeing volatility is being pretty