our next guest believes -- richard fisher is the former dallas fed chair, and cnbc contributor. great to have you with us, richard. you say three more rate hikes you what would that be -- in your view, at this point >> i think we're likely to have two, melissa the job is not done. there could be more. the job is not done. inflation numbers are still too ro robust, and i think guy nailed it it's not that there's no landing, it's just the landing has been postponed and maybe out much further than anyone expects. the fed is absolutely leading, doing what has to be done. i don't have any doubt that jay powell will stick with it and the committee will follow. he's got a good lineup behind him. obviously bill lard is super the tight tighten side here's the thing -- >> i'm sorry i apologize. >> never apologize to me i should be apologizing to you here it is, we're living in a 4% to 5% world now. get used to it i don't think people have quite adjusted we had 14, 15 years of cost-free money. everybody looked smart now we're going to find out who really is smart. you have opportunity costs

you should say that. >> i will take the titanic if you take the penicillin. >> what does the richard fisherer investments temples that was a great question, melissa. >> it's a great question, but barclays will not allow me to speak about my own money i'm 74 years old, melissa, and therefore i'm pretty risk averse i'm finding other people my age that have substantial more means than i have, very attracted still to the one-year and the six-month. waiting to see how things clear out. i don't think that's the best strategy, but again, i'm not allowed to talk about me i'm sorry. no crypto. >> or hold crypto for a year what's the problem don't do either, do bitcoin. [ laughter ] >> you know, the good thing about trading as a central banker is you learn how to not answer questions i apologize. >> we have a lot of guests that weren't central bankers that know how to do that, too thank you. >> thanks. >>> "wall street journal" reporting that netflix has reduced the cost of its service in more than three dozens countries. the cuts apply to certain tier of service including the middle east, subsaharan

let's bring in richard fisher. i know he's been listening to our conversation i hope he has. there he is. >> of course i have. >> it's nice to see you again. what are they going to make of this jobs report inflation coming down. are they fixated on the wrong thing? >> i keep hearing people say they're looking at the wrong thing. so far they've been looking at the right thing in terms of employment and total comp is still higher than they would like that's the feeder for inflation. i always watch jay powell, i watch his body language. if you watch where he stopped reading from the book of his briefing notes, looked right into the camera to the questioner and addressed the inflation issue and the components of what they're looking at with some passion this is deep in his crew i think what just happened here with the unemployment rate going down so low, 11 million jobs now open, firms up his view. we're living in a 4% world i have said repeatedly, i think including on this show that there's a real possibility they take the terminal rate above 5% but we just have to get used to t

where we are, you know, approaching 5%, with no risk to the principal, that just -- >> we have richard fisher his point about credit being the big concern. that has not broken, which is a good thing karen is spot on and the 70.40 was low on the hyg in september so 73 handle although it seems close, it's light years away because it doesn't trade a one-point move is big. but you start making moves like this on a consistent basis, then you have to get concerned. i am with karen. i think it goes lower from here. >> we are getting closer to a recession in the coming months and that october low not really the low. chief market strategist tony dwyer. great to see you so what kind of low are you bracing for? >> why don't we give it the data so oyou opened the show with the two-year yield the highest of the cycle. we looked at since it's been at 500, since 1957, the s&p 500 has never made the low of a cycle when it's down more than 19% before the two-year made its peak so with the two-year making the peak of the cycle so far, that tells us that october low wasn't the low. >> okay. so then in the notes

the fed is a very important role you know, janet yellen, stanley fisher, roger ferguson, a lot of major players have had that. >> richardda >> thank you all of the names that you mentioned are -- most of the names you mentioned are people i've known for years i think each of them would bring a lot to the table karen dinah, jane everly, seth carpenter would all, i think, be able to hit the ground running, which is important i think it's also important in the fed for the chair to trust and be able to have candid discussions with his vice chair. and i think all three of those folks, and certainly lisa, as well, would fit that description. so i think the biden administration will have a wealth of good choices for this role but, yes, it is an important role, in particular. the fed will, according to chair powell, the fed will, on a five-year schedule, begin to do another review of its framework. and i oversaw that effort in 2019 so whoever he puts in that job will have a very important role in the next framework review >> they say personnel is policy and we'll keep a close eye on the dots from here on out. richard, great to