joining us in an exclusive interview is atlanta federal reserve president raphael bostic president bostic, welcome back good to see you. >> it's good to be back. how are you doing today? >> doing well. trying to figure out all these crosscurrents in the economy are you still thinking one and done when it comes to a may interest rate increase >> so, one for sure, that's my baseline for this year i've been at this point for quite some time. the economy is still -- has a lot of momentum, performing quite strongly and inflation remains too high before i came down to the studio here, i took a look at our underlying inflation dashboard by pretty much every measure that you look at, current inflation is more than double what our target is so there's still more work to be done and i'm ready to do it. >> the question now becomes, what happens after may are you leaning toward more hikes, staying put >> so, my baseline is to hold. i think that after the next move, if the data come in as i expect, we will be able to hold there for quite some time. now, you know, i've been saying for a while, i don't

raphael bostic seems to open the door to a pause as well.n terms of playing down the recession was, he is saying the economy is performing strongly, acute bank tensions seems to be subsiding. he says the bankers are telling him there bankers aren't calling it now to take out their money. he seems confident this is the right thing to do. the president of the st. louis fed, is still pushing for more. he said that he does not see a recession ahead. he says wall street is very engaged in the idea. this is a quote for him, convinced there is going to be a recession in six months or something, but that isn't really the way he would read an expansion like this. he goes on that it has to do with the strength of the labor market. he said, if we were going to have a crisis, our financial stress index would go up to four or five. he said it is not spiking, it is at zero. he is confident they can go to 5%, but that rate will get to 5.5% or more. we have a lot of information from that meeting and a couple of weeks, we will get the read from jay powell on

let's start with raphael bostic.ere is still more work to be done and i am ready to do it. he sounds like a soldier fighting a battle against inflation. he says the economy is performing strongly and still has a lot of momentum. he is talking to bankers and they are asking if they should move money over to a bigger bag or something like that. he thinks the acute bank tensions are subsiding. that 5.5 to 5.75 that you mentioned with jim bullard, he said for some time he thinks the rate is going to have to go up to 5.6% and that is basically what that is. jim is saying the fed needs to do more rate hikes. he says about wall street and this recession call, wall street is very engaged in the idea. that is not a way you would read an expansion like this. jobs are still growing pretty strongly. you have inflation still high. wages are still growing. where is the recession signal? retail sales have held up reasonably well. jim says the st. louis feds financial stress index is not spiking. if they had to worry about it, there

. >> we also heard from raphael bostic, not a voting member this year recorded the idea that tightening banking conditions are doing the fed job for them and sees a hike and then a pause. >> yeah, sorry, the interest rate debate here is critical at the moment. there is a lot of division over whether the fed should keep hiking rates and risk an outright recession or whether they should pause and let the interest rate hikes do their work, but as you played in those clips, people like loretta mester making the point inflation is high and they have to keep raising interest rates and the expectations are another 25 basis points in may, perhaps a pause. we will get wage data at the end of next week that is almost important as inflation data because everybody's looking at what is happening with wage gains in the fed is looking at what is going on given how tight the labor market is, so i would have to say what seems to be front and central to the economic debate is up there with the decoupling story from china. >> we do have an alert when it comes to taiwan, deeply wrapped up in the u.s.-china

this is the camp that raphael bostic is excited to be in. do another 25 basis points and then be done it for a while, you can pause. he is playing down recession risks, the economy is still performing quite strongly. he said it has momentum, and what about bank tensions? he says they seem to be subsiding, when he speaks to banks they are saying we are not seeing depositors taking out their money. he is sure that is not an issue. green light to hike their rate again. he sees the funds rate going up to about 5.5%. because he does think the fed needs to do more. inflation is still high, he wants the fed to go ahead without worrying about recession. he says that wall street, this is what he said to reuters, wall street is very engaged in the idea that there will be a sit -- recession. that is in the way he would read an expansion like this. this labor market is still quite a strong, prices have come down, but they are still high. as far as he is concerned, green light to go. and it comes to the banking spillover that has died down, he says if yo

we are hearing from raphael bostic speaking to reporters after delivering his speech, repeating leasingavors one more rate hike and then a pause. saying the policy moves into a restrictive space is working with the lag. we have heard this sentiment before. he calls for mid to high 3% range by the end of the year. we heard from the cleveland fed saying the policymakers will be gauging the impact of the banks tightening what it comes to tightening lending standards. seeing the peak rate above 5%. just adding to the narrative that fed policy makers need to get their job done, we are nearing the end of the tightening cycle. that there is a consideration as to maybe a pause in the meeting after next. let's get you to the fed right now with vonnie. vonnie: cleveland fed president's signaling support for an interest rate hike. she also flagged the need to watch the recent stress in the banking sector. she says the fed is closer to the end than the beginning. >> i anticipate a monetary policy will need to move further into restrictive territory. the fed's rate moving above 5%, and the real feds

james bullard at the fed and raphael bostic pointing to higher rates plus 5% being held for longer. earnings picture continued to digest the diverging picture. we have morgan stanley up next in europe and asml coming in with a beat that investors are cautious in terms of the forward-looking demand for that equipment maker. let's look across sectors. at the top of the list shorts gaining .6%. food and beverage held by a pretty decent picture from heineken and earnings gaining .5% for that sector. real estate at the bottom, taking a hit, down to percent. we have a story on bloomberg about london house building and sales continuing to show a decline in this housing market. technology down 1.5% as yields continue to take higher. let's check in on u.k. assets. inflation double digits holding above double digits in the u.k.. a reminder if you compare that to the u.s. 5% cpi and in europe a little over 6%. in the u.k. plus 10% in terms of inflation. it is a different picture when it comes to price increases in the u.k. and it rounds out a question for the bank of england in the market pric

. >> we'll talk to for raphael bos bostic at 11:00 about these issues specifically. >> there are companiesu.s. companies. tesla is now 1.5% because of increasing competition for evs. >> it's going to be tricky for them if things worsen between the u.s. and china. >> without a doubt >>> the latest all america economic service is out. let's get over to steve glliesm. >> reporter: this is different than other pessimism we've had 53% say it's a bad time to invest 24% say it's a bad time to invest that's the lowest number we've seen -- sorry. 53% say it's a good time it wasn't a bad idea to be negative in stocks in 2007 good idea to be positive in 2017 there's something else going on. what is that interest rates offering competition to stocks. we asked folks what are yo doing? 10% say they changed banks 9% moved money to a money market fund a smaller percentage are buying treasury bonds 21% of our 1,000 srespondents have done one of these things. who is it that's involved in doing this cnbc viewers those with $50,000 or more in the stock market and with high salaries, incomes over $100,000, the

here are the fed speakers, christopher waller, loretta mester, michelle bowman, raphael bostic and patrick harker are jamming it in before they have to be quiet. do they want the final word before we exit this -- into a quiet time where they are banned from it? what will they say? jonathan: did you run out of space on the graphic? i want to talk to michael mckee to break it down. lisa: the fact that john williams yesterday had the same kind of tone as austin goolsby of chicago was interesting. they don't know what kind of credit typing there will be but they are seeing signs that's the case in the fed beige book yesterday highlighted that that there's been a shift downward and a real tightening in lending conditions. they want to assess this but will it keep themonathan: we d'. there is surviving and thriving. we are talking about the regional names giving us an indication they can survive and we've seen many indications they can't thrive. lisa: you've seen them losing deposits that don't bear -- pair -- bear interests. zions bank yesterday had shares that were lower in premarket earnings