what are the and plug-ins for the rbnz here?aled it was done, it came as a surprise to a lot of people at the last meeting. they are content to let the lacking impact of the 525 basis points of tightening we have seen layout. there could be more to come because of mortgage holders not going to roll over. other issues at play here as well. we have an election year in new zealand this year. there will be political dimension to this. it is the economy stupid. it expects political mileage to made out of this. this recession has, earlier than the reserve bank predict appeared the anticipated one in the second and third quarter. it has come in the first quarter instead. the next meeting is on july 12, and a week after that we get inflation numbers. next month we will get a better sense of what the rbnz does next. or it could be nothing. shery: confirming that recession for new zealand, and of course a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to those expectations, but also the implications of the rbnz. we are watching, the reaction whe

. >> the rbnz was forecasting a recession in the second and third quarter of this year.a bit earlier if we get that print is expected. that would follow the 6/10 of 1% contraction. that is the technical definition of a recession. it is a difficult one. a really tough call. they survive just -- they surveyed just none of them. the other five have seen modest growth. a lot of diversions there. there is still record low unemployment in new zealand. immigration is at record levels as well. on the other hand, you have all this piping from the rbnz. a lot of factors to balance. tomorrow's gdp numbers are lining. >> you see a technical possession. it is a definition. it does actually happen and new zealand is entering the recession. what does it mean? >> you will have to wait and see. you have to remember there was a much tightening in new zealand. they are done. the specialism mortgages in new zealand. it was previously said they would look at using. they're currently running 6.7%. there will be the next one critical to the path ahead. quick still to come on daybreak australia

many of its peers, the rbnz for example, are over 5%, the fed is likely to go over 5%. is it really likely that the rba will not have to hike that high? we have seen a few people from the street increase their call for the terminal rate. deutsche bank was out over the weekend with a note saying the rba might have to hike nearly another 100 points. that would be a jolt of the market, especially to the aussie, there is not a lot priced in the front end of the curve for the aussie market. dani: to round out the week we have china data. we were speaking with arend about the idea that china is not living up to expectations, could we see the narrative shift? valerie: that's a big question for the markets. wednesday we get the china trade data. a lot of the i will be on the export data. the big question will be whether china will have this export driven growth models fail. friday we get cpi and pi, remember that a's lower-growing china is deflationary for the rest of the world. perhaps we will see impacts of slower growth on those prints. perhaps some softening there. over the

to 2023 and implications of course what we see from the government fiscal measures as well as the rbnzng through the expected recession but with these trade numbers i should also mention that the prime minister of new zealand will be taking a delegation to china later on this month to try to fortify that key trading relationship. well coming up next, speaking of diplomatic visits, narendra modi is pitching india's potential to america. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. haidi: the risk after president biden called xi jinping a dictator and chi

an indication to us of the effect that the tightfitting we have been seeing the rbnz, one of the frontrunners in the tightening campaign globally, is having on the local economy. we are seeing the kiwi dollar tipping on the news coming through. we had seen it made over the last couple of days in anticipation. we saw the current account deficit narrowing and the first quarter as well, more than had been forecast. that was a supportive factor for the local currency, the kiwi dollar dropping down 2/10 of a percent. let's change on, a lot of focus on the fed in the session today. in terms of the market moves, we can expect it to see muted gains. a lack of uncertainty, a lot of tea leaves being read between will be heard from jay powell and what we are seeing in the dot plot, the reaction from the fed keeping rates on pause. the boj and other central banks are focusing in. shery: take a look at u.s. futures, we did get the very hawkish statement from the fed, the projections. at the same time chair powell's presser seems to have portrayed more optimism when it comes to the inflation fight. there w