announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. athan: this is "bloomberg surveillance". this morning pepsico and delta. delta with a beat and a raise to the outlook. tom: the risk is the repeat no one is imagining. i remember the shock and awe 90 days ago when, oh, the revenue growth is pretty good. jonathan: delta at 4%. delta up pepsico up 2.5%. tom: frito-lay looking pretty good. jonathan: yields are lower by 10 basis points off the back of inflation data yesterday. this intuitive dynamic off the back of that information and the dollar weaker. lisa a.: strategists saying the july rate hike will be the last in this cycle. that seems to be the conviction in futures pricing and analyst notes. what does that imply for the backdrop? what does that imply for the labor market? every analyst has said they are waiting to see when that cracks, if there are delayed implications. tom: i want to hear the people, the bull readjustment. jonathan: those who had a tough year last year are having a good year. tom: i think that is very fair. jonat

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: your equity markets are slightly positive. 0.2%. two weeks away. rate hike height, foregone conclusion. deutsche bank. hike in july. for a lot of people, even before the cpi data. tom: done deal. i don't buy it for a minute. we had two more boring days. yesterday was one of the most boring days in two years. it was a struggle. i saw lisa not off at one point -- nod off at one point. it is one big bets at a new asser tatian. jonathan: does this change the conversation? lisa a: i want to say before tom throws us under the bus that i was interested in -- interested in what we were learning yesterday. today is interesting because i am not looking at the headline figure. jonathan: services versus goods, again. lisa a: and how much does services roll over because people are saying they are starting to see this. the debate is not a lie or september. it is longer-term, are we heading toward an inflationary were gene that is higher or longer? or are we going back to 2% or sub 2% infl

sustainably get back to 2%. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa bromwich and tom keene. on radio and television print i guess we are done with anchor earnings. no we're not. much more to come. the bank netflix is reporting this action. you alluded to this earlier. thank god the big banks are over. now we go on to real america. >> can we go on to netflix? let's talk about netflix. write down the password sharing. we have been led to believe that they will be up off the back of this. we will see what the number looks like. a lot of people believe that is discounted in the stock. the names of buy something like 60% your today. we have strikes with the catalog over a netflix. how can they retain their audience, the eyeballs for the next 12 months if this continues? there are some analysts who believe that this network, network -- netflix, his best positioned to handle this. >> a log charted on the rebound of the pandemic on the recovery as mentioned, a password with a more persistent cash flow, but maybe they are

this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa are -- and lisa abramowicz. tomorrow morning, u.s. retail sales, one to watch this morning, secretary yellen, sitting down with bloomberg's annmarie hordern. tom: incredibly well-timed just beat to the treasure -- secretary-treasurer. we will get to that in a moment here but it is a time where we have financed an investment dovetailing into each other and that is attention of the bull market a lot of bears are getting used to. a little bit of politics there. romaine: starting to feel that --jon: starting to feel that in july. lisa: it really showed -- a lot of consolidation around any not trump candidate. the santos -- ron desantis burning through the cash. how much oxygen do we have left for a candidate to come in for either side? jon: let's talk about a market that is getting crowded, four date any streak on the s&p 500 -- for day winning streak on the s&p 500. we are looking at eight days of euro strength on the u.s. dollar going all the way back to july 20 20, for june 2020, -- tom: i will agree with you th

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene. i am jonathan ferro. difficult for the nasdaq in the last 24 hours. difficult drop going back to february. setting this up for next week. not just be federal reserve decision but also around the corner. big tech ramping up. tom: it is interesting to see after spx. and down doing well with the nasdaq pullback. you have to wonder. omg, netflix. you have not noticed my look. jonathan: i did. tom: we will get to barbie. jonathan: is that what we are doing over the weekend? i did not get the memo. is this close to pink? tom: no, it does not work. mohamed el-erian will have one. jonathan: he's wearing a pink suit? tom: yes, he does not know it yet. i thought it was interesting how the nasdaq gave way later in the afternoon yesterday. jonathan: it started around 8:30 eastern time yesterday morning when jobless claims came in. any talk of a fed pause going into next week was put on ice. tom: do we assu

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro.eturns and when he returns is a conversation on the path of nation in this week of the jobs report. we heard from jim on monday. the discs of disinflation were inflation comes down and sits there. jonathan: thinks that inflation expectations are bottoming the cycle. he thinks inflation is going to be a lot stickier and even with the recession he's anticipating now as for that recession what recession has been the conversation. because the surprise of the year so far has been this monster performance of equities. nasdaq, s&p, and not just tech sick a look at caribbean. take a look at what is happening with homebuilders. tom: it's great. she's got an entire room with three terminals. jonathan: looking forward to that conversation. these are big moves here today and the federal reserve for starting to talk about more hikes rated tom: we begin q3 here in earnest on this wednesday and that is the recession call. i wonder with the discs disinflation does to recession calls around the world.

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. >> good morning for our audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene . your equity markets slightly positive on the s&p 500. in the next hour you will hear from morgan stanley. the commentary from the bears sounds a little like this -- a narrow path to a soft landing modestly wider. they have more confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession. tom: janet yellen with our annmarie hordern saying basically the same thing. i agree the hot see news is important. it is rationalization tuesday as everyone, particularly bears, but the bears are rationalizing where they are going. for more important to me john is this partition i have never seen before between big banks today and and the little banks like pnc of pittsburgh and also western whatever it is out in california. jonathan:. western alliance lots of major banks are reporting as well. lisa, lots of retail sales, that will be a focus as well. lisa: the expectation is softening in th

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with keene -- jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. ll be off tomorrow, but we are here. lisa and jonathan are on assignment. katie greifeld is back. this says everything about the moment. katie: definitely. july 3, on a holiday monday. it speaks to the uncertainty that is in the economy as we tear down the second half. tom: jim is scheduled to be with us in the second hour. let me get my incidents. the news flow, i guess i have to flip it and go to oil. oil has shifted. brent crude is a moonshine. saudi arabia and russia. katie: some news today on those supply cut but not a big reaction. we were talking about what is price in but you still have oil at these levels, speaking to maybe a recession. tom: we'll get you a brief. you are going to do it on the brief. i think the market is open normally. we will see if that actually happens. the bond market, a two-year yield. i am on the march. the two-year yield is obscenely higher yield than the 10 year. 110 basis point of curve inversion. that is sobering on the fourth of july weekend. oil w

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: here we go again. live from new york city this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. equity futures just a little bit to go until cbi later this week. earning season kicking off friday. tom: and lisa decided she was going to dive into it -- this time is different. after cpi wednesday to start earnings friday is a huge mystery and will be a little bit smarter. jonathan: is cpi wednesday catching on? welcome back. all the data coming up after payrolls. payrolls for most people disappointing relative to the adp report, leaving the door open for another hike in the fed later this month. lisa: i go on vacation, adp matters, all of a sudden. that will shake up the markets. my question is how much are people bringing forward some of the rate hikes and will that be confirmed by the cbi prints, making it impossible for the fed not to hike? tom: i think all the data into the weekend, it was a rich weekend for people t

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: stay in bed, the week begins tomorrow, live from new york city, good morning, good morning, for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. equity futures are just about positive on the s&p 500. cpi data tomorrow morning, ppi after that and then earnings season begins. tom: its a terrible turn of the market today. what it is to me is setting up this arch battle be on the inflation report to the beginning of earnings season. we start strong today with jason trenner of strategas how are you in the market given this new information? jonathan: a seven handle wage growth in the united kingdom. this is their language they are using -- growth remains uncomfortably high. can you imagine going into your annual review and saying bank growth remains uncomfortably high? lisa: that's what the bank of england wants. they are saying ask for less and that's sort of this uncomfortable situation they're projecting. tom: it say keynesian madness but its a throwback

. >> this is when group surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.ssignment but she will be back with us tomorrow. i will show up whenever they say and do fantasize tomorrow. we have a real focus here on big tech but there is more going on there including what we heard from gm. jonathan: corporate america is worried about is slow down. gm has raised their outlook, 3m have raised their outlook as well. a lot of companies with exposure , show no turnaround. tom: 3m is fighting for their right -- life. cost cuts gain traction. do we see rationalizations? jonathan: if we see a deceleration and growth, further disinflation what is that mean for the earnings outlook? topline revenue growth specifically and can they cost -- cut costs? tom: let's focus on the fed, he will pick up the paper. and mike mckee somewhere in there will be direction. jonathan: they can lean on the forecast of the jackson hole meeting. you lead on the forecast and economic projections which indicate one comment to hikes. tom: boj and ecb with the french slow down as well. they are ma

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.ank earnings coming in. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. equity futures just turning positive. jp morgan up in the premarket. it is a beat and a raise from jamie dimon and the team. tom: i want to be clear that every bank is a different story. with citibank coming later it will be a different take. this goes back to our conversation with senator warren. in the defense of anyone of any party we need to learn the enormous nest of these banks. they hide it every day. i happen to be looking at the ♪ of points on asset and wealth management with footnotes of weakness because of travel. other than that we have expenses of 8% but revenue up 11%. 3 trillion up on assets under management. even asset management is phenomenal. jonathan: let's get to what jamie dimon had to say. almost all lines are business continued growth. let's park the happy talk. outside of all of that, provisions for credit losses creeping a little b

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market on the s&p 500 index positive by 0.4%, wrapping up a central bank triple header with the boj shaking up the global bond market. a tweak to yield curve control. lisa: what is this? yield curve, maybe, we are not sure but we will let you know when we get in there and start buying? this is basically the bank of japan conceding around the edges and easing away from edge control, making it more sustainable for the longer term. jonathan: it is a change in tolerance around the band. the upper ceiling, 0.5%. they offered to buy 10 year debt every day at 1%. the line in the sand you would imagine is somewhere in between. there was a report with a strong suggestion this is what we would get this morning. on market moving treasuries yesterday. you sabe yen move yesterday -- saw the yen move yesterday. too early to draw conclusions how this market will perceive the moose from the boj today. lisa: this gives

when is lisa abramowicz back? for 97 on the two-year, 498 earlier, close to 5%.her the year, either that higher the cycle, not many miles away, away from the banking delays and we put that yield back on top again. tom: real yield coming through in the tenure inflation-adjusted yield matters. psalms with decades of experience, our next guest. i want to cut to the chase, how do you identify a second leg of a bull market or you hope and pray? i'm looking at a summer and not a discontent but a summer of building walls of worry. that sounds good to me for equities to go higher. >> not only good, i think it is necessary because what we had going for the market in october was the trifecta of an oversold market technically improving under the surface even though the index has taken out the prior june low. you had really washed out sentiment. fast-forward to the recent period, they have gotten arguably frothy on the senate measures and behavioral side of measures. you look at things like equity etf and flows, 80% were in equities out of all etf flows in the last month. se

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and the wonderful bramo back in the hot seat. the s&p 500 slightly negative this morning. after that is higher, microsoft is lower. meta coming up after the closing bell. chairman powell. tom: i will go on to talk about google, microsoft and lvmh. there is a worry that the backdrop for the federal reserve system of the united states of america is a growthiness of america that has been the great miscall of 2023. you can sum it up if you want to give me eight issues. jonathan: you will get a statement and use conference. bramo, welcome back. the first paragraph of the statement and what they say about inflation and the improvement we have seen the last couple months. lisa a: and whether there will be a dissent among raphael bostic among others, and how much you will get from the others alone bow -- others about growth the miss -- growthiness. jonathan: in the middle of two, there was a feeling of

lisa abramowicz is out on the tundra. she is looking at polar bears in iceland.p. bitcoin is over $29,000 right now. the vix is up 14, a fractional green on the screen now. we will dive into the economy. we need to go to michael mckee. friday i will look to jackson hole. what's important here and my people are handling this, we will not be up at 3 a.m. this year. we will ship bloomberg surveillance later in the morning to get important people in the conversation. that's the line you're getting from folks. the other reason is so i can get my chips toasty before the show. for those on radio, it's a beautiful image of potatoes and my father would call this a big glob which is chipped beef in a white sauce. the pioneer grilled speaks for itself. mike: it doesn't you speak for yourself wanting to eat that stuff. tom: everybody eats their along with the wonderful people in wyoming. it's something to look down the pioneer grill and the president of the kansas city fed and all of her step is sitting there. what is the kansas city fed doing now to make for a successful ja

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.g central here at bloomberg. we are looking at the fed and further curve in version, 103 basis points, red and green on the screen. i am looking at east-west bancorp and twist bioscience. these are the companies we do not talk about. there is all of the big names we can talk about this morning, including the smart conversation we just had on netflix. we are now into the thick of it. this is a big deal. jonathan: pick a stock, tell a story. it is costing more money, they had a difficult year. you look at regional banks and would say the economy is struggling, that is the story. i think the homebuilders are one of the most fascinating stories in america, the american economy, in 2023. if you said 12 months ago the interest rate at the federal reserve wouldn't be a problem, it would be a solution because it would suffocate supply because people would be unwilling to sell their home because they were sitting on such a small interest rate on a 30 year mortgage that the homebuilders -- ap an

tom: bloomberg surveillance, lisa abramowicz and tom keene with jonathan ferro on assignment.reakfast at bloomberg, it's pretty fancy. jonathan ferro is getting ready for the next hour and we welcome all of you with mark zandy coming up with an important conversation. on the american economy . right now, the king of whisper data michael mckee is here and a very busy week. what is the whisper number that matters this week? is it mike: mike: jobs or something else? we don't do whispers on a lot of different things the jobs will probably be the most important thing of the week. i'm looking at the whisper number now. isn we do tomorrow and the whisper number is 47 to people think we will have a week number but the number for jobs is 194 at the moment. a little bit lighter but we will get a lot of data this week that will influence what all those late arriving forecast will be. tom: where will we be at 9 a.m. friday given the compendium of data starting with jolts to adp. what do you guess we will feel it 9:00 a.m.? mike: we will feel glad the week is over because it's a very busy

then pharaoh, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls friday.loomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside tom keene. i am jonathan pharaoh -- jonathan ferro. the number we are looking for is 230,000. in the previous month, 339,000. the estimate is creeping higher after dominant numbers we saw yesterday. tom: maybe it would be a sleepy july friday. that is at 72 hours ago and with a vengeance for the adp report yesterday. a 1.0 8% real 10-year yield. a tenured nominal yield of 4.6%. jonathan: the two-year yield at 5%, the two-year yield at 4%. all that banking stress. we are talking about a credit crunch, hard landing, and here we are a few days later, not even talking about financial stability. tom: was some fancy work that i cannot keep up with last night, reporting on deposit flows and money market flows. the answer is, i don't think that problem has gone away. when i look at where yields are and look at money market funds a zillion years ago, why cannot not happen again? i am watching money market flows. jonathan: ultimately, we end up wi

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market on the s&p 500 is posited by 0.6%. meta-in the premarket absolutely flying once again following earnings yesterday afternoon. with earnings from apple and amazon. we still need to work through the central bank trilogy with the federal bank behind us and the ecb behind us and the ecb behind us in the boj around the country -- around the corner. maximum optionality seems to be the message. lisa: there was no forward guidance which is what people took away from this. basically, they don't know and they don't want to give you a sense of what they will do. people are reading this the way they want to read it and that's what the market is doing this morning. jonathan: here is a quotation -- the fact that they see policies restrictive is dovish. i wonder if they are in the same camp, the belief that growth is picking up agai