we have liz ann sonders the best place to be right now. victoria fernandez being bearish soft landing is filling to the brim. brian wesbury sounds off. what mapped to the recession? busy earnings season danielle shay this has different flavor, more carb sure approach to the stocks you still want to own. sam bankman-fried brother wanted to buy a sovereign nation for doomsday. the survivors would be a select few. effective altruism what i really think it is about. all that and more on "making money". ♪ e. charles: so the theme for today's show is second half 2020, 2023 rather, on second thought? i mean take a look at this. this is the financial advisors bull-bear ratio. you can see very, very bearish. it is rocketing higher. getting near some pretty high levels in terms of bulls versus bears and these are your financial advisors, folks this is starting to come around. there is the individual investor, retail investor bullish sentiment, it has been greater than bearish sentiment for seven weeks. after 15 weeks and 44 weeks. you went essential

let's ask charles schwab's liz ann sonders.reat to speak with you on all this i guess the question is, do you think the market is correct to take a little bit of comfort out of today's numbers, essentially we're not seeing an overheating economy but also not one that's outright stalling? >> yeah, i suppose in the context of the nearly 500,000 adp print, which really kind of freaked out investors, i think you can take some comfort, but of course, we're starting to see the weakening that although the fed wants to continue to quell inflation, might be starting to send some signs of sort of full official recession versus what we have been calling the rolling recession. i think it was a slightly hotter than expected wage number in the uptick in hours worked that probably moved the needle a little bit in terms of probabilities for a july hike, which were already high, but now they're up around 95%. beyond that, meaning september, you know, it's the data that's going to define what the fed does beyond july, but i think a hike is basic

. >>> charles schwab's liz ann sonders, what she's calling frothy sentiment. >>> decent action in stocksoday as ppi basically reflects cpi yesterday was not a fluke. today the spread -- actually the spread between 52-week highs and 52-week lows was the biggest in about a year or two. >> recession trade is underperforming. real estate as a sector, utilities, even consumer staples. i'm watching pepsi as well, what it tells us about the overall environment. pepsi beat on the quarter, raised guidance. now expects 10% organic sales growth they had a strong first quarter they raised the outlook to the 10% growth i talked to hugh johnston, the cfo and he said he's not seeing much of a slowdown in u.s. consumers and they're seeing a ton of growth outside the homes, in convenience stores, up double digits, in food services like restaurants, up 20%. that's a sign there's still a lot of growth out there in the services part of the economy also while he says inflation is moderating, nowhere near 2019 levels may not even get there. >> i don't think you want to see it roll back four years. that would

coming up, liz ann saunders from charles schwab joins at 1:30 new york time. this is bloomberg.l bank south with major policy decisions next. will any of them provide us with fireworks? a question of the day, who moves markets the most next week: the fed, the ecb, or the bank of japan? ludovic subran is joining us right now. it is the surprise come from? [laughter] ludovic: the answer is going to be the boj, because if they surprise us, they will surprise as big time. i am in the camp they want burch because the inflation numbers so inflation may have peaked, but there is stand to uncertainty around the wage price spiral in japan because companies have been quite high on the wage increases over the past few months. there is a risk inflation is out of control. the latest reason -- with the latest readings, i am more in the camp they will not surprise us. if you are looking for fireworks, look east. kailey: if they do surprise us, what kind of ripple effects would you expect in that scenario? what would it mean for u.s. treasury? ludovic: the problem is there is a cloud nine momen

liz ann sonders joining us at 130 time new york time -- at 1:30 new york time. this is bloomberg.taking steps to restart the grain export deal that russia exited this week. earlier, we spoke to the country's agriculture minister, mykola solskyi, on how much ukraine is currently actually able to export. min. solskyi: a lot of ukrainian companies now export grain by trucks or rails using infrastructure they can support as well as river ports, so we have much less export. i think at least 30% less than previous time. if we speak about capacity of destroyed ports, some of these terminals had storage capacities, a few hundred thousand tons of grain each, and they could load at least some of them, 20 or 30,000 grain -- 30,000 tons of grain per day. kailey: that was the ukraine agriculture minister speaking to us earlier. continuing to think about how this implicates the markets, a wheat etf is up with three days of inflows as russia pulled back from the grain deal and there's concern about the potential applications for prices of these crops. joining us now is, angie setzer, the founder

charles schwab's liz ann saunders joining us next. >> netflix theirs are down more on the numbers withlyst who raised his price target on the name. >> and finally from airlines to semis, breaking down the biggest earnings movers and what investors need to know big show still ahead with the dow up 200 and the s&p negative. we'll be right back this is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. ♪ you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. >>> some fresh news from the federal reserve when it comes to banks.

theory out there or is it like liz and saunders where we are living a completely outlier -- like liz annere we are living a completely outlier 2023? jonathan: i will go back to when the conversations were so dominant, the debate a couple months ago. now it is back to where we were pre-svb, inflation is too high taken our eye off the ball. tom: i am reading every article on commercial real estate. i don't want to be doom and gloom but it is part that we do not watch. yes, it has a new york city bias. but nationwide, commercial real estate is crude. it is irreversible. the cycle is not like a 30 year mortgage. the cycle in commercial real estate is an amateur of seven years. it is like england, more acute. jonathan: a 30 year mortgage at 2% were 3%. take me back in time. tom: every day, jonathan ferro is the key to the 60's and 70's. jonathan: i want to go back to a public branch give me all your money. give me 2% were 3% over 30 years. can you imagine? ♪ oh booking.com, ♪ i'm going to somewhere, anywhere. ♪ ♪ a beach house, a treehouse, ♪ ♪ honestly i don't care ♪ find the perfect vacatio

liz. >> all right, anne, thank you so much. >>> still ahead, bay area students taking a stand against gun violence. why they say progress comes with painful conversations. >>> and a big line outside a goodwill facility in the east bay providing desperately-neede d help for residents looking for a fresh start. >>> 50 years after the death of bruce lee, how the martial arts legend is being remembered in salolonpas lidococaine flex. a susuper thin, , flexible p h with maxaximum ototc strengthth lidocainee ththat contoururs to the b by to relelieve painn riright where it hurts.. and did d we mentionon, it re, really stiticks? salolonpas, it's's good medidi. >>> big turnout today in hayward for the opening of a new goodwill store. >> the latest location is on mission boulevard and has everything you would expect from goodwill. over 125 eager thrusters were in line before the store opened to snag the hidden gem. >> the store also highlighting the career opportunities they offered to the community. we caught up with employees who say the store offered them a second chance after spending decades

. >>> charles schwab's liz ann sonders, what she's calling frothy sentiment. >>> decent action in stocks