what you think we can expect from jerome powell today?- jerome powell today? good morning. — jerome powell today? good morning, good _ jerome powell today? good morning, good to _ jerome powell today? good morning, good to see - jerome powell today? good morning, good to see you. | jerome powell today? good | morning, good to see you. i jerome powell today? good - morning, good to see you. i am hoping and expecting we don't see very much. i would say i'm not expecting to see too many fireworks one way or the other because the market has been doing well, the economy itself in the us has been holding up much better than i think most people would have expected so far this year. and inflation is coming down. i thinkjerome powell has to continue to thread a very fine needle with respect to trying not to rock the boat too much. but recognise and give the message that rates have to remain higher for longer. that rates have to remain higherfor longer. i don't higher for longer. i don't expect higherfor longer. i don't expect he wants to give too much away one way or t

what are we expecting from jerome powell's speech? expecting from jerome powell's seech? ~ . ., , speech? what the fed does, the world typically — speech? what the fed does, the world typically follows. - speech? what the fed does, the world typically follows. what - world typically follows. what we are expecting, some analysts say it may be more nuance and investors may be disappointed, those investors hoping to hear if this may be the end of these tight interest rate policies we have seen over the last 12 months that have successfully brought down inflation to just about 3% from 9%. many had been hoping he may signal this is the end of this policy, particularly optimistic investors may have been hoping interest rates may have been coming down from their levels now, they at the highest levels we have seen into many investors may be disappointed and it may be a nuanced speech given, perhaps signalling the fact that when it does happen, inflation will hit the lowest economic level so mr powell keeping his options open. these features can be market movers and because they h

he told chairman jerome powell. he told central bankers _ chairman jerome powell.ld central bankers around _ chairman jerome powell. he told central bankers around the - central bankers around the world that the us will continue to raise interest rates at quote, if appropriate, as inflation remains too high. is currently just over 3% which inflation remains too high. is currentlyjust over 3% which is higher than the first 2% target. mr powell set interest rates could rise a further and stay higher for longer which will disappoint many investors who were hoping his speech might signal the end to the us having its highest interest rate in more than two decades. he cited the effects of russia's ongoing invasion of ukraine as one of the factors keeping prices elevated globally. a few things we're paying attention to this week. country garden is one of china's largest property developers and on tuesday, it'll report earnings for the first six months of the year. the company is under scrutiny because of a severe downturn in china's property market and it warned earlier t

be on what federal reserve chairmanjerome powell says chairman jerome powell says when chairmanjeromeowell says when he delivers his speech on friday. investors will be looking for signs the us central bank is nearing the end of its push to raise interest rates which are at their highest level in 16 years. by making borrowing more expensive, the fed has been able to try to tame inflation but if they go too far, the us economy could slow down too much. the chief us economist at tivo press told me her expectations on the interest rates. . ., ., rates. the final inflation has been the — rates. the final inflation has been the defining _ rates. the final inflation has been the defining moment l rates. the final inflation has | been the defining moment in jerome powell's post pandemic helm at the fed. what i would be looking for is, given the recent progress in the data where core inflation in the us has fallen significantly from the highs of 2022, willjerome powell be ready to declare victory and recognise the progress that has been made so far? and in this way indicate to financial marke

i don't necessarily support jerome powell's view that's a positive. all those are reasons we might be concerned here. >> are the oil shocks of the '70s reflected in those charts you just showed us that mr. summers was pointing to? >> yeah, so what we were looking at right there was basically cpi, so, you know, a lot of people will look at inflation and they will pull energy out. in fact, it's very frequent that people say, you know, x food and energy because those commodity prices tend to be a bit more volatile. the thing is, though, we have to bear in mind -- we saw big increases due to a refinery outage in energy prices today. these things do impact the consumer. we want to take out volatility, but can't ignore they affect consumer spending. >> brian, welcome, good to see you. you're looking at rates. what are you seeing? >> just to tie this together, you do have to look at interest rates. have to look at where the ten-year note was today, was back then. mike's chart ends at what would be this 1975 late half of the year, just after i was born in fac

so i don't necessarily support jerome powell's view that that's necessarily a positive. so, i think all of those things are reasons we might be a little bit concerned here. >> are the oil shocks of the '70s reflected in those charts that you just showed us, that mr. summers was pointing to? >> yeah, so what we were looking at right there was basically cpi. so, you know, a lot of people will look at inflation, and they will, you know, they will pull energy out, they'll -- in fact, it's very frequent that people will say, you know, "x," "x" food and energy, because those commodity prices tend to be a bit more volatile. the thing is, though, we need to bear in mind, and we are actually seeing, we saw some big increases due to a refinery outage and energy prices today. so those things do impact the consumer. you know, we want to take out volatility. but we can't ignore entirely the fact that they affect consumer spending. >> yeah, all right, brian, welcome, good to see you, you're looking at rates. what are you seeing? >> just to kind of tie this together, you have to look a

would you keep jerome powell? has he done a good job?were elected president, jerome powell would probably jump off the same bridge bill barr talked about. look, anybody who doesn't do exactly what donald trump says exactly when he says it goes from being brilliant, which is what he called jerome powell when he appointed him, to someone he wouldn't reappoint. >> what do you think? is he brilliant? does he stay? >> i don't know if he's brilliant or not, but i will tell you this, he's starting to bring inflation down, which is the job of the fed. and all of us knew that when joe biden went crazy with his spending, even larry summers said that it was going to create big inflation, and it did, and it left the fed with no choice but to raise interest rates in order to bring that inflation back under control because inflation is the hidden tax that kills every family in this country when they go to the gas station, to the supermarket, to pay for their educational costs, to pay for clothing for their kids. that's the pain americans are still fee

all eyes were on that chair jerome powell in jacksonville wyoming. strategists for what it means for markets and the economy. the best-performing stock may surprise you. the stock pick writer will break down the secret to the company success. later charles schwab stock is struggling as it tries to control stock. behind the troubles and what you can do. we begin as always with three things investors ought to be thinking about right now. out enough to sustain a rally. is it a warning to the market? an impact to the business. there may be opportunities for investors. finally, retail earnings are taking a hit in the rise in shoplifting has something to do with it. what it says about the industry and the health of the consumer. my colleagues ben, andrew and al . it seemed like the s&p 500 was able to have a good week. >> it does look like a good week what worries me is that they had these great earnings on wednesday night. the market went out and rallied early on thursday. it went right down. ended up down 8% on the day. that is not the kind of trading yo

what is jerome powell signaling here? i always think you rise to short stocks right before it speaks because there's such a thing is the powell put but what do you think? >> telegraphed another rate hike in the next meeting or after that but i can't begin to tell you how depressing that he thinks strong economic growth equals inflation. it is printing to $9 trillion, a lot of control with spending, that's the inflation point, what has to get under control or else. as far as i'm concerned, he can raise rates or not. watch the ten year yield, if it keeps going up, bad, hitting a 15 year high before backing up and i have to tell you under the surface, so many things because of the cost of capital going up, whether it is the credit cards, the latest that just came out is people for the first time ever, rolling over their debt instead of paying it off the first time ever, it is worrisome across the board and next coming up, massive amounts of debt coming to do from the government that has to be done at higher rates which means

whatever jerome powell says is difficult. he had a pretty good neutral line at jackson hole but the data coming in the next few weeks will be a challenge. we will have choppy trading conditions through to the end of august. in september we have -- we will have a clearer idea of whether the fed is an position to hold or not. for now the markets are not giving much either way. host: thank you for the warning. mark cranfield, we will come back to you later in the program. powell was not the only highlight. we heard from christine bogard. in an exclusive interview she explained the ecb will leave rates at high as needed for as long as it takes to bring the inflation back into target. she also talked about shifts in labor, energy and geopolitics. >> we are facing major shifts. i will mention three for you. one is there is a complete change in the labor market. there is a complete change in the energy future that we are facing. there is a complete shift in how geopolitical forces organize our economies. host: how did those comments

-- or tomorrow from two more -- jerome powell. if you look at the minutes, the fed considers its rate restrictive already. michael: exactly and the point jay powell will make tomorrow is the one he has been making for some time, the fed to keep rates high and assume that will help bring inflation down. if it doesn't, they could raise rates again. that depends on the inflation dating -- data. i don't think he will go out on a limb and make any promises about what will happen next? . we had two other fed officials saying the same thing. one person saying they have done enough and they should think about pausing and susan collins says she could go either way so that -- so at this point, there is not much percentage in pricing a whole lot more -- matt: we know from janet yellen that the minutes can be massaged and the fed may be split until it makes a unanimous decision at the end. are they all at the same page? michael: there's a difference between strategy and tactics. the strategy, they are on the same page and they want to bring i

really what the traders are doing is behaving as though jerome powell is going to be truly hawkish thiseek at the jackson hole symposium but they might be in for a surprise actually because if you look at the global data that is going around, there is certainly reason for the central bankers to some cautious, especially christine lagarde and what she sees in europe is a pretty dour picture. the german economy is about to go into recession and the has been hit hard by the weakness in china especially in exports from the whole of europe to china are suffering. that is a picture of caution certainly. even jerome powell will probably looking at the situation and it will be hard for him to justify coming to jackson hole and telling everybody there are more rate hikes in my pockets. when people look at the way the u.s. economy is behaving, it seems to be going for a soft landing which is hard to achieve . but he does appear to be heading is in direction. inflation is certainly edging lower and we already have a situation where treasury yields in most parts of the curve are well above the head

if we have higher inflation, jerome powell has to raise.the consumer and will have ripple effects for everyday investors. maria: we'll see what happens with the jackson hole meeting, that's happening the week of the 25th. that's when the fed governors and officials are there, we could get conversation out of it. the next fed meeting we could see a rate hike not until september. what do you want to say about disney reporting second quarter earnings, a beat on earnings, falling short on wall street expectations of revenue. the stock is up. the company reporting a 7 and-a-half percent decline in subscribers for the disney plus streaming service. growth is coming down. this is an area for growth in this quarter, was parks, experiences and products. that revenue was up 13%. >> disney plus has been a money pit since they rolled it out. it continues to be a profitless segment. they're losing money there. the crown jewel for disney is without a doubt the parks. it's over 70% of their profits coming from the parks. maria: 70% of profits. >> 70% of p

be on what federal reserve chairmanjerome powell says chairman jerome powell says when chairmanjerome end of its push to raise interest rates which are at their highest level in 16 years. by making borrowing more expensive,

what do you think we can expect from jerome powell tomorrow? i fromjerome powell tomorrow?s cards relatively close to his chest, historically, especially in the last 15 years, there has been occasions when the jackson hole event the big keynote speech has been used as a platform for a big policy shift. there has been a couple of occasions with ben bernanke you when that was the case. i don't think we can expect the same, the federal reserve has been cautious over the last 12 months, hawkish talking up the prospects of interest rates rising then markets expect and staying longer than they expect, i do not expect to see a significant change of tone from jerome powell, they have made significant progress but there is still more to be made and he will be wary of how carried away markets can get at the slightest hint that interest rates could stop rising, even start falling next year. it is not 'ust start falling next year. it is not just him _ start falling next year. it is notjust him all— start falling next year. it is notjust him all eyes - start falling next year. it is not

. >> in markets asia, on edge, as we went there from jerome powell, the messaging of how he will never get the final stage of disinflation. tech stocks in particular under a lot of pressure. pretty much losses for the rupee, the -- the korean won. the beauty governors saying that the thai baht is also be wiped out by the chinese yuan. the yuan continues to be under pressure. let's see where we go from here. we have a good week for the benchmark. there see modest declines on the benchmarks according to the futures contact. we look ahead to jay powell. this as fed officials continue to differ on how much rates should be raised. >> we are in a position that this august. powell's speech was very blunt. we knew what that hathor was going to be. now we are in a position that is very different from that point. there is a divide over additional hikes. at this point we are expecting a pause as we can step -- hit september. maybe there is another rate hike on the agenda for this year. there is something that was implied on the fed dot plot. for jay powell, the task here is pretty tricky. it is g

. >>, federal reserve chairman jerome powell talks about the inflation range and how the fed is prepared to increase interest rates if needed to tackle high inflation. chair powell also spoke about the economic outlook during a speech at the federal reserve bank economic symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. >> thank you, betsy, and good morning, everyone. at last year's jackson hole symposium, i delivered a brief, direct message. my remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same. it is the fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal and we will do so. although inflation has moved down from its peak, a welcome development, it remains too high. we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policies at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective. >> the unprecedented pandemic related demand and supply distortions and on i will >> forces are working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go. even with the more favorable recent readings. the u.s. tot

mark: as you have been discussing earlier, jerome powell will not persuade people that rate cuts areoming anytime. he wants to keep people sure that rate hikes will stay higher for longer. he will not want to give that away. the picture is completely different from 12 months ago. inflation is no longer the big enemy, that has mostly been beaten, there is work to do. discussions with people like christine lagarde and global leaders, they will probably be among themselves thinking there were definitely big international risks to the story. europe has plenty of problems in christine lagarde will sound the most dovish of everybody because she will get confirmation today that germany will be in recession. the gdp data comes out before she speaks. the other pmi numbers in recent german data has been horrible, so it will be hard for her to have a hawkish stance. she will probably tell people the risk of over tightening is the big problem for the ecb, and she will probably lay the groundwork, regardless of what was said earlier today, so christine lagarde could end up being the star of the s

that's right, at the end of last week market participants leave the week feeling i think jerome powell summit he is probably not feeling like he's ready stop just yet, he says inflation is too high and he will raise interest rates of appropriate if he has to. the narrative has changed this week, he says ok i hear you mr jerome help we know you will raise interest rates if you have to but the jobs market is turning and the economy is turning and the economy is turning and the economy is turning and turning to the fabled soft landing everyone was hoping for, the federal reserve can get on top of inflation but without breaking the army, that is what everyone hopes for and that is what now looks more likely at —— than at the end of last week. looks more likely at -- than at the end of last week.— looks more likely at -- than at the end of last week. hence the increase in _ the end of last week. hence the increase in shares _ the end of last week. hence the increase in shares on _ the end of last week. hence the increase in shares on wall - increase in shares on wall street. the head of air

the final inflation has been the defining moment in jerome powell's post—pandemic helm at the fed.t i would be looking for is, given the recent progress in the data where core inflation in the us has fallen significantly from the highs of 2022, will powell be ready to declare victory and recognise the progress that has been made so far? and in this way indicate to financial markets that we are quite close to the end of the tightening cycle. my own expectation is he will not be ready to do that yet because there is still some uncertainty where we are now in the final mile of bringing inflation from over 3% to 2% which is the fed's actual inflation target. i think he will be ready to say they remain data dependent while saying some progress has been done so far. the other thing i am looking for is how will powell define data dependency? what will be the milestone he will be looking at right now as they make the decision about the last few hikes of this tightening cycle? the chip designer nvidia said it will buy back $25 billion more of its shares, seeing its stock flying in after—hou

tom: i don't envy jerome powell. no matter what he does the markets will move.s there is more work to be done which i think is what he will suggest, then you will see likely the treasury curve moves higher, risk assets wobble in particular, discretionary spending sectors. if he comes out and somehow suggests we are coming to an end of the tightening cycle and we ca light of the end of the tunnel, he everything except the u.s. dollar is going to rip higher area that is a problem in and of itself because that means easing financial conditions when it is clear to us we are not getting close to the end of the tunnel, we are at a point where inflation is getting sticky and could easily wreak celery, especially when you see crude higher and wages continuing to remain 4.5 to 5%. no matter what he does, the market will move. my hunch says he will side toward the hawkish side and say we have more work to be done which we know for the most part but he will leave it open-ended what that means. in particular what that means rate hikes could happen, they are probably done bu

jerome powell speaks on the 25th. that will be key. we've got video on the 23rd, so these are two different events that will have a big impact on the markets individually. >> let's reference the miley climb. i would argue that apple has taken the miley climb, even though it is steep, but it seems it is taking the elevator down and we have seen that with a bunch of other stocks. semiconductor's outperformed the other groups, which are down 10% now. if you look at that gap, it feels the s&h wants to trade down to 135. in terms of yields were not necessarily positioning for higher yields and that is where equities are starting to take a tumble. if you look back, i know we just quoted we are at 15 year highs, and if you look back just two years, we've moved up 300 points. that is your discount rate. what are the equities work with 300 basis points higher than years ago? by the way, when markets were at their high, multiple stocks were at their highs and the market was close to making all time highs. if you look at the market today, interes

we explain. >> during this major speech at jackson hole, fed chair jerome powell acknowledged inflationtion is still high and he admitted that the fed may need to do more to fix that. the fed has already done a lot, spiking the pace the fattest in four decades. that's catapulted mortgage rates to 42-year highs, credit cards to record-highs. powell said this inflation-fighting medicine has yet to be felt. he's dropped hints he's not satisfied. he threw cold water on the recent inflation cooldown, arguing that this process is just beginning. he also noted gdp and consumer spending have been hotter than anticipated and the housing market is showing signs of a rebound. powell warned all of this combined with a strong jobs market could undo some of the inflation progress. so given all that, what does the fed do next? well, powell conceded there is considerable uncertainty on that front. listen to what he said. >> we can't yet know the extent to what these hoer readings will continue, where underlying inflation will settle. 1 -month correlation is elevated. as is often the case, we're navigat

fed shared jerome powell will give a big speech.xpect him to say everything is still a little bad, but not as bad as it was a year ago. don't expect great cuts. don't think or feel anything. [laughter] >> hoping elizabeth can be a little bit more definitive. a longer fan of housing. >> that is right. we learned that berkshire hathaway bought a stake in dr horton. the country's largest homebuilder. up about 40% for the year as buyers have flocked to new construction. anybody that is looked for a home knows there is not much inventory out there. sellers have sat on the sidelines. people with the mortgage rate of 3% are not too eager to trade that for 7%. dr horton chairs fell later in the week as we learned and hit a record year high. homebuilder stocks and learn to shrug it off. it seems like it finally caught up to them. >> recommending homebuilders as early as last year. >> indeed. bullish on homebuilders. he named toll brothers one of his pics. homebuilders bottom-line has had a good run. a little too late for a bit -- a little to

much impact will the weaker than expected data out of the united states shape the message from jerome powellowell will push back on some of the expectations that he will cut rates this year. he has said it will be higher for longer, but the question is how long will rates stay high? tomorrow we will have -- go ahead. rishaad: this time last year when he was speaking, he made this very blunt address at the conference. that they were certainly going to be aggressive in their resolve to fight inflation. of course, we have seen what happened since and they have been aggressive. the benchmark a 22 year high. haslinda: this is a fed best says it is data dependent, but data has been pretty mixed. labor remain strong. how will that play out? let's wait and see. tomorrow, several high-profile speakers from jackson hole. former kansas city fed president will speak. we will also speaking to the bot governor for a more asian perspective. rishaad: one of the reasons we are seen equities up was nvidia soaring after hours trading. it finished 6% to the upside. this is a revenue outlook which was beating es

on friday, jerome powell is scheduled to deliver the key note speech at the gathering.ing up, all eyes on what could be the biggest ipo of the year. an official announcement is expected today. we will discuss what is in the works and what to expect from arm. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's focus on what is likely to be this year's biggest ipo. bloomberg has learned that softbank's arm is set to split underwriter fees equally among four leading banks. i want to bring in our expert, bloomberg's alex webb. let's start with you. what are we expecting from this blockbuster ipo? alex: the company is reportedly seeking valuation -- there has been reporting that some banks have come in with a valuation considerably lower than that and don't forget that softbank bought arm in 2016 for 22 billion pounds. this valuation was $70 billion. -- 70 billion pounds. it was the biggest tech company and it will be listed in the u.s. perhaps not a surprise given valuations over there. lizzy: the chip designer has seen a revenue de

nears a 16-year high has investors bracing for a potentially hawkish message from jerome powell ahead of this week's jackson hole summit. >>> nvidia pulls back with options traders eyeing potential double-digit moves in either direct on the back of its highly anticipated earnings report due today. >>> and the republican party confirms its lineup for tonight's first primary debate with one notable absentee as donald trump says he will surrender to authorities in georgia on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election. ♪ >>> well, good morning, everybody, and welcome to "street signs." we are just getting some key data for the month of august for the year. now we just got the flash pmi numbers. those came in much lower than where we were back in july. the print for july was 48.6. the composite number for august is 47. a 1. drop aggregate versus where we were in july. let me break it down. flash services is now in contractry territory, again, showing a drop from where we were back in july. we've dropped almost two points in the services numbers. the manufacturing prints came in at 43.

the global economy — so all eyes and ears will be on the world's most powerful central banker, jerome powellis chief market strategist at raymond james investment management — he highlighted one of the big challenges for governments and consumers around the world — inflation. it's a problem and at the end of the day inflation is the most regressive tax you can have on a population. it is something that no one can avoid and it impacts everyone. it impacts their consumption habits. in the us american consumers i would say they are good at spending money they have an even better at spending money they don't have, so inflation hasn't yet weighed on the us consumer in a big way but you are seeing inflationary pressures play out across the rest of the world and thatis across the rest of the world and that is why i think in emerging markets you are seeing a lot of central banks are starting to cut interest rates this year. so what we end up seeing today i think is going to be a preview of where monetary policy actually goes and again i think given where we are in the us, we are in a pretty good spa

federal reserve chair jerome powell says even more interest rate hikes are on the wall.alk about that and how it plays into this jekyll and hyde economy. all of that and more here on "cnn news central." >>> from the 45th president to inmate p01135809. last night the world saw america's first-ever presidential mugshot after donald trump surrendered on rico charges as they're known in georgia. part of a sweeping indictment against 19 people for attempting to overturn the 2020 election in georgia. the surrenders are now done. the legal updates are just beginning. the latest co-defendant tied to the fact elector's scheme said she was acting at trump's direction, and she is not the first one to make that argument in court. jessica schneider is covering the legal thread. jessica, a defendant pointing a finger at trump saying in effect he delivered the orders, i followed them. she's the third, i believe, to do this. tell us the significance. >> yeah. this could be just part of the cascade that we're seeing in these legal filings that keep coming in. this one from kathy latham,

hosts its annual economic symposium in jackson hole wyoming, which includes a speech from chairman jerome powellrrently at three and half percent and there are suggestions by analysts that it could become one of the first central banks here in asia to reverse its tightening cycle, thatis reverse its tightening cycle, that is to cut interest rates. at the end of the week we will be getting an initial inflation figures for the month of august injapan. this comes after the bank ofjapan's tweak injapan. this comes after the bank of japan's tweak to injapan. this comes after the bank ofjapan's tweak to a policy allowing interest rates to rise more freely but narrowly in response to higher prices. before we go, from today the retailer tesco says it will cover the sales tax of its own brand period underwear to make them more affordable for customers. it reduces the price by 20% and brings that period pans in line with other period pans in line with other period products which are tax—exempt. a campaign has been launched with tesco has joined calling on the british government to re—classified period par

stocks jumping on the notion that maybe jerome powell sits tight for a while.but man, oh, man, hard to nail him dunn. he seems to show that the economy is improving and inflation so far is improving as well. that doesn't mean he still can't raise interest rateses one more time, which would spook him earlier and added the word cautious at the end of his remarks. everybody said bye-bye. go figure, after this. h the sam, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. (light acoustic music plays) (eagle screeches) (energetic music

two year yields, fed chair jerome powell of course sending that message out again, saying the central banks will be raising rates higher for longer. that is one of the reasons we are seeing that. david: he did not really tell us anything we didn't know on thursday. rishaad: he left his options open as well. david: like they have done for the most part of the last one year. part of the conversation here is markets are waiting for a firm pivot. the fact that they do not even know what the data is going to look like, is that wishful thinking to wait for any pivot right now? what was clear, incrementally today for traders, is what you run on the dalian. -- dollar-yen. you can push that all the way up and ueda basically saying -- rishaad: he was extremely dovish. so they are kind of relaxed about this. given that the yen is weakened to these kinds of levels, that averted the intervention problem, means that they are prepared for it to go to 1.50 even, and people are positioning for that themselves as well. david: you can tell the tone and the topic that each central bank was focused on. ue

jerome powell and folks at the fed are looking deeply at all that.et's bring in kenny polcari to talk about this. first of all, consumer sen want, can he beny -- senment, what do you think? >> i'm not surprised and we've been talking and the consumer is growing weary and going on now for almost two years in terms of rising prices and stress on the consumer. so we've seen that so i'm not surprised by those numbers at all. all though i'm not necessarily sure that jj can take the numbers from today and incorporate it into his speech. i think he's had this sense that consumers are weary so i think that's going to be part of his speech. and so we're going to see. stocks are up but they're not nearly taking back what they lost yesterday, and i suspect that as we move into the weekend, it's going to -- they're going to go negative. david: by the way, are you the only one that calls powell jj? i hadn't heard that before. i like that. jj. >> i have a nickname for everybody on my morning news. david: i don't mind being called the da. i got to ask you about tho

federal chair jerome powell will speak on friday.t decided last month to allow long prm interest rates to rise higher than previously tolerated. the boj had said its decisions were to enhance sustainability of yield curve control, the key elements of the policy. last year's symposium powell stressed tightening must continue until the job is done. his job highlighted the difference between the fed and boj which has stuck to monetary easing calling the yen to plunge in value against the dollar. >>> now, the cost of living here in japan has been steadily on the rise for a couple of years now. however, the bank of japan is determined to stick with its ultraeasing monetary policy. that's left experts guided how the boj should move forward. >> reporter: july's price index excluding fresh food and energy rose over 4% from the previous year. that's well above the boj target of 2%. but the bank has kept its key interest rate below zero, only tweaking yield curve control policy to keep long-term interest rates low. japan's rising inflation was

i believe what jerome powell says, first of a i don't think that -- all.arget inflation rate and then on top of that, and probably more importantly for everybody, i think that interest rates remain higher for much longer. i'm talking about a number of years. unless we see a massive collapse of the economy, unless we start talking about recession and recession plus, i don't believe that we're going to see a backing off of high rates and for that reason i have said and i will continue to say that investors need to understand that we are going to get into a tale of two cities. city one is going to be those businesses that can go ahead and flex along with the rise in rates and alternatively we're going to get to assets and enterprises that are ham strung with the interest rate. so folks that are out there that are going ahead and borrowing at rates that are very high, that have levered capital structures, junk bonds, those companies are going to come into the market with needs to refinance. they're going to have an incredibly difficult time. interest expense i

investors reacting to a meeting of central bankers in jackson hole where jerome powell mapped out thes in the federal reserve's campaign to tame inflation. >> we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down towards our jet give. >> the bear traps report founder larry mcdonald joins me now. you look at the bond market right now and it is forecasting a recession even if investors are not. where do we stand? >> think about three of the largest six banks in the united states of america are down about 40% from the high. in the case of city down almost 44%. as interest rates have been pushed up by the fed they are draining liquidity from the system, pulling money out of the regional banks and they are creating a lot of stress. at the same time, gas prices are up almost 40%. it is classic classic stagflation coming back at us again. >> in the same breath you can talk about the housing market and see that the 30 year interest rate now well over 7%. that will have to have an impact on homebuying as well. that market in a po

do you think the fed, jerome powell, tackles that policy dimension in this speech to really hammer that home? because the fed doesn't necessarily need to raise rates again, but if it keeps rates elevated, it will still be restr restrictive. >> i think that's a smart way to think about it, melissa, because what he doesn't want to talk about is cuts and i think he's sort of done talking about hikes. so, although, i think he wants to keep those on the table, so, i think the next sort of macro question is, how long do you stay on hold and there is this question out there that the fed, in order to not become more restrictive as inflation falls is to reduce rates. so, if it's going to stay there, if you look at the way the market is structured, 37% probability of a rate hike in november, so -- you know, 40%, call it wherever, a little bit elevated today all day, especially in light of the higher economic forecast we've had, but then look into next year, and now you have cuts built in, and the market and the fed are a little bit offsides on that, a little different there, but the market starts

i don't think it makes a difference it's about messaging right now, and if jerome powell feels like he needs to continue to send the message they might hike again in order to not let financial conditions loosen too much he will keep sending that message i don't think it makes much of a difference whatsoever. i think the damage or at least the hiking that's been done, is really it, right we went as far as we could as fast as we could the idea is to constrict capital and demand it hasn't happened in its entirety yet and i think there's more to come. >> let's bring in brin talkington you heard the case liz made. do you agree or disagree >> well, you made a few cases. let's start with the recession -- >> she's cautious, no question about that. >> let's start with the yield curve inversion. that was the last comment. as an asset allocator if you look back through time, when the yield curve invertsz, you look at the 10 and i3-year the averae recession starts 589 days later. you've had 1,000 days on the long end, 300 on the short end i think that looking at the yield curve ultimately the data