and kathleen, what do neel kashkari had to say? neel kashkari said that he doesn't think they've done enough to end inflation yet. and of course, he has been in the more hawkish camp for the last year, the last year and a half or so. so maybe this isn't surprising. it's just that so many people are saying the fed is its new debate is how long to keep the rates high, not whether or not it needs to hike more. well, not if you're talking to neel kashkari. he said the fed has made good progress on inflation. the rate is still too high, so rate cuts, well, not yet. and add, don't even think about it. listen to what he said. are we done raising rates? i'm not ready to say that we're done in terms of cutting rates. i think we're a long way away from cutting rates because core inflation is still around 4%. it's still around twice of what our target is. kashkari wants to see convincing evidence that inflation is heading towards 2%. so what kind of number did we get today? as neel kashkari said, this retail sales in the us coming in much str

neel kashkari saying inflation is still high. we see some progress. i mean, how do you add that to your list? is it is it a big risk? is it a no risk? so i think what i'm talking about de-risking, i'm really talking about how the equity markets are pulling back and just sort of pulling sort of having a countertrend moment as we from the first half of the year. and so the fact that the us consumer is still spending so well obviously adds a lot of fears to the fed continuing to raise rates and that that more sobering effect of, wow, we're going to keep getting more hikes for quite some period of time. the us consumer just won't stop, which is which is wonderful. but you know, it's one of those good news bad news type of things. so for the past six weeks or so, we've really seen a shift in how the equity markets are changing. we've seen a shift in leadership and we've really seen a lot of defensive plays just become the leaders in the past few weeks. and this today, it was just a big sell off. i mean, everywhere across the board, there was no safety. the

kashkari was pretty hawkish when he spoke yesterday. how many are in the kashkari camp?hat is clear is if the data is not strong enough to justify further hikes, is it strong enough to keep the fed on hold? the market is coming to grips with it. is a fairly straightforward one. is a pause possible given the data? does the fed have more to do? does the bank of england have more to do? we look at the wage data out of the u.k. and on cpi. both are strong and point to the bank of england having to do more. other central banks in the same hot water. was mccormick joining us now to discuss. what you think of the question and the answer? >> gets a good question and that is the question the market has to ask itself. i agree with what you said a moment ago. the idea of a soft landing means financial conditions are going to be tighter for longer than the risk asset market. we are expecting prior to this string of decent data. will the fed cut at all in 2024? if not, some of the easing of financial conditions equity markets and credit markets were thinking about is going to go away

at least so says neel kashkari.the debate now really seems to be more about not how high rates have to go, but how long they'll have to stay there. so you've got us treasury yields edging slightly lower in the asia session. you did see the yield on the two year hop over the 5% mark. briefly and then back again. yields on ten year treasuries were at their highest since october. and at one point, the 30 year real yield hit 2% for the first time since 2011. but that sell off has mostly reversed. over in asia, the hang seng and the csi 300 are in the red. jp morgan cut its growth forecast for china after that horrid data dump for july. some analysts also saying the surprise rate cut yesterday won't be enough to revive confidence. but we're not quite at panic stations. china stocks are still comfortably outperforming us stocks over the past month. if you have a look. well, we can get more on how asian markets are faring now. let's go over to bloomberg's tanya chen for an update. tanya, what are you watching? hey, lizzie.

what do you think here >> neel kashkari saying what you said there, scott. still watching the data. inflation is still too high so he's not telling us he's ready to cut the fed would be too tight the same idea of john williams, even the chairman has spoken about this idea the fed itself, but i think the story today is the resilience of the economy. this 5% landing gdp. i would take it with a grain of salt sometimes they're on the high side and are well above the street when it comes to right now in terms of our cnbc wrap it up data. we started off this quarter in the prior quarter people estimating the third quarter was going to be around zero. we are back above 2.1, i guess, our estimate not everybody has updated today with this consumer spending number, scott. i think what it means is it's going to be tough for the fed to stop raising rates or cutting rates in an environment where gdp is running lower than they thought and inflation is above where they want it to be >> sure. you could have easily finished that sentence saying inflation is arguably lower than them thought it might

you had that from neel kashkari as well in the last 24 hours. get the fed minutes from the last meeting, abigail, what will they tell us? 2:00 p.m. eastern, i think. economists are working closely for disagreement among policymakers. how much divergence will we see? matt, the key question, how many of the members are in camp neel kashkari? how many are in pause mode? what do we think the breakdown really looks like? matt: that's the key question. we are in a light period for fed speak at the moment. a lot of people are on summer vacation. you had people come out, notably pat harker yesterday coming out saying we don't need to raise rates anymore. we had others like the fed governor michelle bowman saying we do need to do more hikes. so they are famous for the different descriptors they use. many or most officials thought this or that. we will be king in first and foremost today on the line that may be fleshes out the numbers a little bit more and gives us the size of the relative size of these two camps on the committee. alix: if that is the cas

neel kashkari, he's been speaking with the last couple of minutes, says inflation is still too high in the united states. do you agree with him? if you were at the bank of england, would you say the same thing? if you were at the ecb? would you still say the same thing? do these central banks still have more work to do? what does that work look like? so i think it's higher for longer for europe. we think that core inflation is still too high and will continue to see some rate increase in the us. it's a little bit more opposed us until we see the key thing to watch is potentially negative surprise from oil or energy prices and food. if you look at the average oil price, last year in june, we were on average at $115. this year, $75. and you've seen gas prices, you've seen and if china manages to create some kind of rebound from where we are now, energy prices might surprise on the upside. yeah, and we've and we've seen that guy particularly, i can tell you after driving this past weekend, like over $4 a gallon in certain places, like it's getting a little bit dicier. so and then my quest

they're all in the red after minneapolis fed president neel kashkari said inflation is still too high. you can see the ten year yield right now. really unchanged at just about 424. spot 1933. the bloomberg dollar index gaining strength again today, although really it's also little changed at 1238, up only 4/100 of 1%. and crude is down another dollar 91. so crude wti back down to almost $80 a barrel at $80.60. john. and that's certainly weighing on the canadian stock market with energy, with such a big subgroup component here. financials is well under pressure in canada and we're seeing that in the us indices. matt mean, beyond just figuring out the story on rates and inflation from here, fitch raising some fresh concerns around the banking sector within the dow. you've got jp morgan, for example, as one of the lead laggards. it's down about 2% right now. watching tech is kind of interesting when you consider the fact that we started the day with some muscle calls, if you will, from the analysts on wall street. you had baird with bullish commentary on nvidia. you had morgan stanley sa

kashkari didn't say whether he thought more rate hikes would be necessary.cutting rates, which now is the expectation. joining us to talk about the pressures on the banking sector, jason goldberg, barclays managing director and senior equity analyst good morning there was a regional bank freakout, i would call it, in the aftermath of what we saw with sub and then a lot of folks came on here talking about office, how the office business was going to kill regional banks and who did we have on this week, it is a multifamily that will kill the regional banks, and now kashkari going to kill the regional banks and fitch. which is it? or any of them >> we don't think any more of the regional banks fail this year they're facing pressures now more recently we're facing increase regulation in capital requirements and this week debt requirements for the talk. so clearly there is pressures. but we think the group can manage it. >> so, when you see fitch say this, what is the takeaway is there a takeaway? >> i think clearly fitch is acknowledging it is a challenging back

neel kashkari there, he's not ready there in terms of bringing rates down.e current state of us inflation markets, though, have looked right or wrong, have looked through this already. in fact, interestingly enough, this latest bofa survey and one of the key takeaways, at least for me, was a sentiment is the least bearish since before right before the fed kicked off this very aggressive tightening cycle. they've gone slightly less in cash. they've gone overweight in tech, least underweight, and comes to stocks. for example. so it has been quite bullish as far as that's concerned there. it then takes us into where we are in the china story, which at the start of the year was okay, we've ratcheted up expectations on growth forecasts and guess where we are yet again with the latest ones coming through following the weak july numbers. barclays, jp morgan and mizuho have now taken down those growth forecasts. as and as you can see, some of these are actually below the official guidance and target out of beijing has. and then you add all the worries about the prop

from july policy meeting this afternoon 2 pm eastern minneapolis federal reserve president neel kashkari said inflation is too high fed not ready to dlaifr it is fshd raising interest rates you say fed needs to stop adam we are expecting fed to continue is it going to be the nail in the coffin in terms of a recession. adam: if you look at fed funds futures there is a market for what people think fed is doing in the future. they are fed fund futures saying no more rate hikes this year we will get a rate decrease going out into march, i don't necessarily need a derive but i would be happy if they fixed interest rates because if investor i know what discount rates are for the future if a cfo know what capex expenditures will be financing in future my question to you does fed do nothing here just sit tight does that make sense? >> well, i agree with futures market thank you for bringing that out not a lot of people know that hiding in plain sight for sure fed is done raising rates, i understand the value, of fixing knowing what rates are going to be if they fix rates at this high level, high

look for in the minutes because what we get from powell is more of that i think than what we've got kashkarior instance which is we have a long way to go and we're not satisfied with the inflation we've seen. >> the message you're getting, which is even if we keep rates about 5% and inflation comes down, we're restrictive, the neutral rate is lower, we can keep rates here or lower them and still be restraining the economy, it doesn't have to be in response to outright economic weakness the magical soft landing gdp never went below 2% in any quarter. in '96, which was the year after the soft landing was so-called executed about 4% gdp. a different time obviously but it tells you that, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean you have to bring the car to a halt and then restart it again in order to actually execute this thing. >> i am curious what you mean by a little bit more oversold i think back to jeff degraph's discussion a couple fridays ago, 4,300 which was a successful june test. >> yes, a few percent down from here you want to get more stocks looking -- you know, like very few stocks abo

the minnesota fed president kashkari and others have said as the fed works to reduce inflation and triedo get back down to the 2% limit, they are necessarily going to see a update -- uptick in employment as labor pressure needs through. resilience in the labor market is likely going to be a continued cooling in the next few months into next year but ultimately, i think we are seeing more data researching what we already know about the u.s. economy right now. lizzy: valerie, we heard from austan goolsbee, chicago fred president -- fed president and raphael bostic. did they give clues whether they will hike again in september? valerie: goolsby is one of the major dogs and did not want to pre-commit to september moves. his reasoning was a bit understandable. he is saying that we have in a false improvement before and he does not want to precommit given we have two inflation prints between now and the next fed meeting. that rationale does make sense. but he is known at the -- as the head of the doves. even the dogs don't necessarily want to precommit to -- dogs don't want to precommit to goi

[laughter] neel kashkari saying today we are, quote, a long way from cutting rates. oh, great. those higher rates, however, certainly have proven burdensome to banks. today credit ratings company fitch warning it may have to downgrade several u.s. banks including jpmorgan, the big financials all moving lower on that warning as you can see. morgan stan hi down 1.33. -- morgan stanley. regional banks also seeing declines on worries over tighter regulation, today the fdic signaling a potential plan to overhaul how regional a banks prepare living wills. now look at the action here on a very down day, of course, western alliance, pacwest, key corp., citizens financial all moving substantially lower, 3 or 4%. so could all of these factors pose a very real risk to the markets longer term rally? let's get right to the floor show to dig into all of this. joining me now is mullen camp or and company portfolio manager jeff mullen camp and always great to see you, trader steven sarge guilfoyle. thank you, gentlemen, both. sarge, let me begin with you. there was a laundry list of headwinds

loretta mester, jimmy bullard, neel kashkari have been saying it for months.ant to take it. i think they are concerned about inflation turning up again. we saw a tiny bit of that in the ppi, next week we could get the pce that will capture more the energy move the cpi did not capture this month. to your point i think we're going to 6%. charles: we sold off into the close yesterday after the minutes. we're selling off a little bit here today. overall what does it mean for the broad market? >> actually i think it is good. we've been talking about, i thought it was way too stretched to the upside, that it needed to pull back. so i think that is what it is doing. i don't expect it to crash. i suspect if we hit nasdaq to maybe test nine or 10%, it is already down 6% from the highs three weeks ago. the s&p down 4.4%. if that tests like 7 or 8%. as you know those are well within the normal trading range, right? a 9.9% move from the high is still considered normal t shakes the branch as little bit. the weak ones will fall out. that will be interesting because it will

he's the reason rates are so high for so long and so low for all kashkari's fault. feeney joins us now, portfolio manager and partner at advisors capital management. joann, two stories for us this morning. china's one, the us consumers another. let's start with the us consumer. are you expecting to see further signs of resilience in numbers from home depot this morning? already out target later this week, walmart after that. yeah, it's no mystery, john, that the consumer is strong. you know, you look at the data on real disposable income and you see it's actually been rising for the last several months. that is adjusted for inflation. and it's because there are more people employed. it's because wages have kept growing while inflation has slowed down. and so there's more money in household pockets in real purchasing power. and that's why we're continuing to see pretty strong numbers. you know, clearly retail sales growth has slowed dramatically and, you know, it's likely to continue to slow. it's just barely above zero in terms of year over year growth. but, you kno

kashkari is a voter. dow down by 7. don't go anywhere. >>> banks for the fifth-consecutive day.er on there as the cfo steps down effective immediately. dow with opening losses that appear to be stabilizing down here 220 don't go away. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >>> time for "stop trading." >> i've been partial for old dominion but the morgan stanley has giving me xpo. they're raising the price target from 45 to 65. i have norfolk sournl, where it's not been that strong. we'll have to talk about how that is possible that's one of their growth business and then, i have tom jorden, who some feel is the actual dean in the oil business he incentivizes. if you are cleaner, you get more money. that's a visionary way to approach the oil and gas business >> we got wells downgrading energy downgrades of marathon and phillips, as well. >> the refiners are downgraded they've been red-

neel kashkari has been set to speak what is top of mind for you? david: any fed speak is big.lluded to the fed minutes that is very important, how hawkish are they? it's not just the dollar side of the equation. it is the other currency side of the equation. if you look at u.k. for sterling, you're looking at inflation data, employment data that comes in weaker than expected, it will put pressure on the sterling and therefore it is dollar positive. i would be looking at those as well as fomc minutes. david: about an hour back, the pboc came in with a sizable, sizable fixed relative to estimates. certainly with the dollar story it is not surprising they are coming in at that level with a reference rate. i'm wondering whether we should expect policymakers in china to continue at least to try to anchor the currency with the dollar strength you mentioned. david: i think the fix will keep coming in stronger. they are trying to anchor it but it is tough. you are seeing broad dollar strength. so it is not just the yuan weakness. it is dollar strength across the board. they are trying

tom: kashkari shows up with various children until they were well mannered. jonathan: here because.on i have with the central bankers, the way we spoke to the emc central bankers, the south african central banker -- a question you have to ask those guys right now, what can the federal reserve and the ecb and everyone else learn from you? we touched on that on friday. i think it is an important question. they smell inflation, they smell it from a mile away. they act, they act fast and decisively. to some extent, i knew we -- i know we have moved on. we need to look back at the mistakes made at the federal reserve and elsewhere. tom: damian sassower has been great. i see depreciation, devaluation. my first question to the gentleman from south africa was, what you do when you get south african rand to 20? it has weakened 14 to 19. jonathan: dollar rand. inflation issues have gotten better. tom: good morning to all of you. kailey leinz is in for lisa abramowicz. are you here for today or the week? kailey: through thursday. tom: very good. jonathan: tom said, through friday? going into t

jonathan: neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed.not to say this, but the england women's team in the world cup, 3-1 against the australians, minutes away from completing their semi final and going to the final two place bank. lisa: i expect half of our audience is watching this game instead. jonathan: we are in the 90th minute and it is 3-1. we will see. i am not watching it, i am just looking at this course. i am doing my job. tk actually watches videos. lisa: you have standards. jonathan: i am just watching the live score. dana telsey joins us now. great to have you any program. target is beating the lowballer because the stock is running hard. how the was that bar and how much clarity have you got about what is going on? dana: we'll have more clarity when they do the earnings call, but the change is the fact that the inventory levels continue to remain clean. when you look at the gross margin, it was better than expected. shrink continues to be an issue but it is all about essentials which is frankly much stronger than what you h

jonathan: kashkari did a good job to set up the year ahead. he said, the face of interest -- the phase of interest policy. we've got some officials discussing going higher. some officials including goolsby discussing may be the second phase, let's have that conversation now and talk about how long is it. we are in between those two faces on the committee. tom: at jackson hole, cash kerry is on the x axis and understands the importance of time. if you extend out time, keep interest rates where they are, different things can happen. jonathan: let's get to price action. your equity markets slightly positive on the s&p 500, lifted by 0.4%. treasuries down, yields up by seven or eight basis points on a 10 year. bit of euro weakness, 1.09 on the euro against the dollar. lisa: maybe europe will not do well relative to the u.s. as people had previously thought this year. 8:30 a.m., sets up fed speak you to flee because it has both poles of the federal reserve coming together. raphael bostic of the atlanta fed and michelle bowman speaking. rafael bosti