tjx, compounder.bw, a little more alpha if willing to stomach this limbo in between period. >> you mention that, still have time until we're in the core of holiday season. seems to be somewhere focus is even survey-based work suggesting consumers may spend less. any way to handicap how it's going to look? >> the beauty of holiday reports out 3%, 4% and low, 3% huge problem, and still showing growing. a fascinating thing to look at these surveys. i prefer to look at revenues because end of the day, ask me my intent to purchase never as powerful at actual receipt what i did purchase. my gut people will spend on holiday and good for you and i, bad for investors, i guess, discounts there, but not everywhere. i think that's where we're finally past this all rising tides is good or bad of covid. remember, beginning of covid simply no profit. no discounts. last year too much product. a plethora of discounts. right now good brands hold their own. tougher brands chase. so you and i will find deals both from in

you mentioned tjx, the consumer is looking for value and tjx is providing that and the buys they're getting from manufacturers is just fantastic. so that positive fly wheel keeps on spinning. >> and constellation you like in part because of a couple of new board members. >> sure. the knock on constellation the law few years has been around their capital allocation policies and certainly billions of dollars have been wasted. two new board members both with cfo backgrounds are now on the board. you have elliot as an activist investor. i think the company the last few years has been saying we're not going to do anything stupid and these two new board members plus the involvement of elliot really guarantees that. so what we're left with is a really good secular volume growth story and better capital management over the next few years with a depress depressed pe. >> can you hang on to these, when you talk about the consumer broadly, it's 60 whatever, say 66% of gdp. if you're really cautious, shouldn't you be cautious about the whole market? even the stocks you like, maybe you get them cheaper i

once you get tjx, you're not going back to the full price. not me. i got one right next door, and i love it. and we saw some big cracks at walgreen's last week when the ceo left. rarely a good sign. you don't leave when things are on track. plus, drug stores like walgreens has become monstrous. it's now considered the cost of doing business. they now need to lock everything by lock and key. you see it behind the glass. what is that? we don't have time for the clerk to come over with the key. i always feel bad about it any way. and the only thing that seems locked is the name brand, not the house brand. that's how it works in kiosks and aisles in my rite aid. why not just buy everything from amazon which made same day delivery. you buy in the morning. it's at your doorstep when you get home. kind of like walgreens except for faster. and by the way, no one is stealing it. we see cracks in the banking system too. no, not on the credit side, but the lining side. the capital used to fight the last war which is what silicon valley bank mean. how stupid. th

the two retailers to really watch are tjx and ross.test fashion brands but they want to pay less for them, that is why ross and tjx knocked it out in the second quarter and still expected to do well going into the holiday season. charles: all right, let's hope so. always good to see you and have these conversations. a thank you. >> thank you for having me. charles: absolutely. coming up, folks, everyone is courting north korea, not everyone, the new axis of evil there is an endgame we probably need to look into deeply. this goes beyond economics. lisa daftari will walk us through how dangerous this will become ♪ next. charles: so what happens when two of the world's most men nation dictators meet? north korea leader e kim jong un arriving to meet with putin in russia, right? so kim declared, quote, his full and unconditional support for moscow's war in ukraine, and this is raising fears in the west that there could be more than just an arms deal in the works here. joining me now, lisa daftari, i'm seeing all kinds of headlines. i go to

. >> we're talking about the consumer being stretched, you own tjx.vironment? >> we like tjx because there's excess inventory in the channel, that means they get higher quality product, also the advantage of a tradedown that may be coming from the middle end consumer, not high end but the middle end, trading down. we think there is still a demand to be had, but within the retail space, our preferred area of exposure. with higher oil prices and gas prices, that filters into the consumer. the consumer has spent on experiences this year so it's a question of do they flip back and spend more on goods again, or do they take a pause because they've overspent during this environment that we've been in? >> shannon, we have a big number today, 46% of u.s. consumers with student debt, planning to cut back on spending on sneakers right now. what's your take on nike and the broader retail sector? >> i think nike is indicative of some of the transformation in consumer demand in the post-pandemic era. we had a lot of the goods spending and switched to services. rep

that's ridiculous, oil going down a couple of bucks won't translate into an earnings bump for macy's or tjxr costco. still has that's how this market works. that's the correlation. retailers rally. of course this is an easily dismissable run. it's been denigrated repeatedly as nothing more than i ashort covering effort all day on our air as the bears ring the register and take? profits. and when you're a short seller you ring the register by buying stock. i want you to take the opposite app approach, though. sure, when you get a big decline followed by any rally of any significance it is natural to aum soo the whole move's fueled by short covering. as you can imagine, when you see stocks climbing on the thin read of a $2 decline in oil, it seems like there's nothing else to it. but what if i told you that what happened today is really very different from what's been going on, that approximate 1:40 p.m. bottom yesterday, the train day bottom, they finally finished selling. maybe it's because they feared october, which historically proves to be pretty bountiful for tech stocks. maybe they cou

tjx. a little bit off. a little bit burlington. that this comes out as the winner in this piece. one of the reasons why we have much big positions in tjx is because the macro head mounting versus 2019. the antidote is this. now, when you speak to retailers, they're very envious of these guys because a lot of people dump off. they're good merchandisers, but they like are shocked themselves at the price of the merchandise. so i think people should guy this stock. >> i don't shop, except i do go to tj max right here. and the answer is 1$100 billion. 1$100 billion, twice the size o market. >> they've got home goods, which is terrific. by the way, just want to be clear, if you want to get the thanksgiving plates that i use, you have got to go now. one year i went a week before thanksgiving, and the clerk said, are you kidding me? that stuff sells out in october. now, costco is bringing in christmas trees now this week. >> i'm not ready for that. it's not even halloween. >> now, i got a pair of jeans two weeks ago, $14. i sold them for $

they do say those retailers in the best position, in light of all that, walmart, costco, tjx. >> costco earnings tomorrow. we know from walmart at the goldman sachs retail conference just earlier this month that they are actually -- they've been seeing some momentum going into september with a strong back-to-school season. but, to your point, it's not all -- what is it -- not all tides -- i'm totally butchering the metaphor. it's not everybody. >> yes. >>> meanwhile, congress has under a week to reach a budget agreement. if they don't, a government shutdown could have big implications for the economy. >> hi, carl. i'm doing good. the government, maybe not so much. there are multiple options congress is working on to keep the government funded. at this point it's very unlikely that any of them can be done in the next six days, meaning we'll start a shutdown very likely on october 1st. depending on how long that shutdown lasts, it could have major impacts on the economy. about 2 million federal workers, plus some members of the military, would go without pay for weeks or even months depen

walmart, ulta, tjx among the names they're bullish on. >>> nextgen health care, to take it private.ll ask orlando bravo joining us thursday at post 9 on this show. good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ >>> cowen's back-to-school picks are grabbing our attention. they point to walmart, kohl's and ulta as consumers prioritize needs over wants going into the fall. joining us is oliver chen. good to see you again. is there a screen you can use to emphasize needs over wants? >> well, what we're thinking about is consumers are really gravitating towards essentials. so it is all about needs. needs in particular, food, essentials, grocery, even beauty is considered an essential good. and ul that is a great example there. at walmart we like th

they did cut foot locker at the time and on a relative basis they were like you have to look at the tjxthe top things that they would cut and somewhere are around 50% said that footwear would be next. and so you think about so many retailers that sell those product categories, and who potentially could be hurt the most and if we're also seeing some potential continued weakness or at least concern out of what is going on with nike's business and you know that about 60% of what foot locker sells is nike, you have two cross currents going on there. retailer selling all sorts of apparel and footwear and a brand specifically that is not as strong as now as it has been in the past. >> costco i know was earlier in the week, but they gave us good color on the cadence of consumer mindset. they talked about christmas already under way. you talked about your own shopping getting under way. i just wonder whether or not that fits with some of the survey data that we've seen, the deloitte numbers looking at maybe not as much growth this holiday as we've seen in years past. >> absolutely. and we all t

you're not going to get paid for it if rates stay higher for long er i prefer tjx and that's where i have been putting more money to work. i think that off price is in the sweet spot. you have trade down, excess inventory that benefits the off pricers, the treasure hunt people like. they like that experience. they have a long-term algo of 2% to 3% in same store sales and margin expansion. last quarter they grew 6% and margins expanded over 254 basis points. i think they have just, in addition to easy comps, they have the wind at their backs at this point in time. short term i'm not going to get paid to own anything housing related, even though the housing data that i cited earlier is not all terrible. >> yeah, but i thought the whole reason to be in a home depot or a lowe's was because with mortgage rates north of 7%, you're not going to move, but you're going to improve, and that will be ultimately beneficial to stocks like this even though as you rightfully point out it's done absolutely nothing year to date. >> yeah, i don't think you're going to get paid, get the multiple, tradin

federal realty's top ten is cramer fave tjx. that is a charitable trust name.n regular stores are suffering. plus this company is a mofld consistency. federal realty has raised its dividend for 56 consecutive years. that makes it much easier to stay constructive on the stock even when its subsector goes out of style at the wall street fashion show. at this point federal realty now sells for less than 15 times this year's expected funds from operations. remember that is the real metric to gauge the health of a reit. 4.5% dividend yield. allowing money to flow back into these bond market equivalent stocks as long as the bankable don woods stays at the helm. there you go, three contrarian ideas for investors who think we might be approaching a peak in interest rates. again, i'm not calling for that immediately. i just think it will happen sooner rather than later. and that's what matters. bottom line, whenever the high for rates is but the in i believe the beaten down real estate investment trust will rebound because that's what usually happens when you're coming

holiday shopping season you could look at some retail that is more towards the discounted items hike a tjxi think that might be an area that you could look at but i think you will have to be a little more cautious on some of those cyclical stocks that have those high betas related to the consumer. charles: so interesting, because a lot of folks are saying cyclical, over defense, money comes out of tech names. we got you down, tj maxx, gilead and cigna. victoria, great conversation, thank you very much. >> thanks, charles. charles: see you soon. coming up folks, we have orrin cast, he says there is a warning light flashing for capitalism. he will join us later with his analysis. first to pay or not to pay. we talked about student loans. a lot of folks are not paying, if we're not paying we've got a shutdown and we've got strikes, oil goes to $100, is that it? would they break our back? is that the black swan. i will ask joe lavorgna to break it all down next. ♪ this is american infrastructure. megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. all running on coun

tjx is crushing it, ross stores is crushing it. nike even is crushing it, even though it doesn't get the -- >> abercrombie is crushing it. >> there are winners and losers. >> you've got to look at the dollars, amazon and walmart are 600 billion in annual revenue. if we pull out something with a billion in revenue and say it missed because people are stealing their stuff, it's an apple, oranges kind of thing. >> i want to get back to steve kovach, let's talk about it before we get back to another headline i want to bring up and discuss with the group. what do we know? >> yeah, so this is a lot of analyst chatter. i know "the wall street journal" wrote about it today, and bloomberg did have a more credible report a few weeks ago, but basically saying the pro models, the more expensive when they are announced next week, they're going to cost 100 bucks more. there are a couple of things to say here to contextualize this, one analyst chatter, we're not -- it makes sense, apple has done it before, raised prices on iphones. they've proven

is exactly what you shouldn't downgrade when it's down 35% and they've got terrific items, but it's tjxlled back from 93 to 88 that i think is really sensational. i really like that one. the one that, david, a lot of people are talking about is tom kings bury going to turn around kohl's? great operator. >> i don't have an answer for you on that. >> yes or no will do. >> oh, will it? >> so i can hold you to something. tom kingsbury, going to turn around kohl's. >> he's a great operator. >> then i'll go with yes. >> levis is getting a little bounce, jim, as td cowen outperforms. >> worldwide pants. >> early innings of a favorable denim cycle . >> oh, my god, the denim cycle, i took that denim cycle to the moon with true religion, remember that? >> i remember jordasche. >> remember the inventory. >> levis is down a great deal. chip is retiring. we've got michelle goss coming in there, and i do think it's got a good yield. my problem is i don't want to be levered to pants unless it's lululemon, they can buy mirror for a fortune, write it off in a couple of years and the stock doesn't blink.

it's no longer a thesis, it's a reality the only ones that are still able to squeeze in would be the tjxscline in the brick and mortar stocks, if you believe them, you would think these companies all better merge or else we have a series of 52-week lows. >> macy's, peloton, pet co-dollar stores target three-year low. >> i went in to target to say is there anything going on. no david, either there's a buyers strike on the old time brick and mortar or people are saying, these are all value traps and you have to buy walmart and costco. >> what do we make of target it's worth spending a little time on that that's just been disastrous this year >> it is >> we talk a lot about shrinkage which in this case is largely comprised of theft hiring seasonally again, 100,000 workers as they did last year. they're saying they're bringing prices down on any number of things again, we're already talking about the holiday season which is still a few months away nonetheless, they had a release about it jim, you've looked favorably on the management team there. >> i wanted to call it a buy yesterday. i was t

you own tjx. you think the consumer is in decent shape? >> it has been in good shape. by the job market and higher wages. inflation is hurting to some extent. that is why i like the off pricers. all an of the excess inventory in the retail channel will help the industry and people are trading down to some extent. they like the treasure hunt. the long term algo for tj is two times sales growth and expansion and market share increases. they have about 46% of market share. i think they can get to 50% over the next couple years. remember last quarter, they grew comps at 6% and gross martgins t 254 basis points. i think that will continue to be the theme throughout the rest of the year. >> stephanie, we have talked about oil prices and how they have picked up again. why do you pick halliburton? >> it caught a bid the last couple weeks. i'm looking for the laggards. the halliburton has lagged. it is up 7.5% year to date. the stock trades at 14 times forward estimate. it is the leader in the u.s. onshore market. i think their international exposure is under appreciated. you a