annmarie: it is complicated. want prices lower , but how does that reflect on how the economy is doing? lisa: they are between a rock and a hard place right now. you had the geopolitical tensions they will say as little as possible. jonathan: joining us shortly is michael shall of market field asset management. inflation data about 94 minutes away. equities higher. your 10 year yield unchanged. 10-year gilts right now 4.56. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. >> the risk to our view is inflationary pressures return and that can be a function of geopolitics. >> when things move this quickly over short. of time, there are unrealized -- short periods of tim

annmarie: it does not look like it. from steve scalise is it will not happen today or tomorrow so i am withdrawing my name. 30's to be someone who is completely out of the leadership. but they can only lose four votes. at some point, you might see a moderate republican say, i will have a bipartisan ruling coalition with the democrats, that we are not there yet. lisa a: things have gotten so dysfunctional that's not only to be have members contesting the election and going against it, but we do not have a name. we are talking about someone coming in that might not even be in leadership. and there is talk of patrick mchenry to be given a 45 day or 60 day time as a speaker. he says he does not want this. annmarie: patrick mchenry could be smart for the republican party. november 17, we are intensely going to have an other government shutdown. that is house speaker mccarthy lost his job. they will maybe throw it on the camry. we will have to deal with a stopgap and then next year, will find another speaker. jonathan: will t

annmarie: i'm sure, jonathan.nswering any questions. jonathan: annmarie, our chief washington correspondent in d.c. and beyond. that address later. oh, the questions lined up. can they answer them? lisa: so far the proxies for the government have not answered them. jonathan: it is almost impossible, tom, to answer some of those questions at the moment. tom: i have been watching nine different media sources this morning but the speed of news flow, the speed of imagery and we all want to have narratives and conversations. that is different than war, which is what this is about. jonathan: lots more still to come. we will catch up with john kirby, the national security council spokesman. michael depaulo, jim bianco, and terry haynes.from new york , this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized, based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can mak

annmarie:. what you hea -- annmarie: i can. is that all he can do is bring together a vote on the house floor for the speaker of the house. house republicans will be back in washington dc along with me this evening, 6:00 p.m. and they will have a dialogue and a discussion as well as tomorrow. wednesday they are supposed to have a vote within their conference. can they rally behind these individuals2? jordan or steve scalise -- jim jordan or steve scalise? scully's would be the obvious -- scalise would be the obvious individual, but he is dealings with. jonathan: in washington to get a move on. tom: i think there is a sense of urgency but i'm not sure the officials want to do that. joining us is the chief investment officer at -- marta, morningstar owns active and index funds. let me start with an update on active management has done coming out of the pandemic. >> it is an interesting story because when we look back on active and passive and the narratives around them there has been this view that passive is ascendant and active

annmarie: the house is at an impasse.happen until you have the speaker here you have an interim speaker and clearly his only job is to bring a speaker wrote to the floor. you will have republicans meet in a caucus and they met last night as well and tomorrow they will vote what many individuals want to see a blind vote we hide the scenes to see who can get to 217 for bringing this to the floor, basically to not have a repeat of what we saw earlier when it took kevin mccarthy 15 rounds to get the gavel. what you will potentially see is it is very difficult at the moment for steve scully's and jim jordan to see -- steve scully's and jim -- steve scilese to see who can get the votes. guy: i am curious as to how the starts to play out. how does this work in terms of public opinion? how does it come together and what the u.s. government is doing? clearly the president will take on the commander-in-chief in this scenario and i don't want to conflate what is happening in israel with domestic policy in the u.s. but they are in so

annmarie: people are stunned.ontrol of one chamber of one branch of government and yet they have dissolved it basically. it is very chaotic. this is the first time in history that there was a motion to vacate. mark meadows put in motion for john meadows that he resigned. the republican party put pressure on the speakers and their leadership when they don't get their way. this is the first time in history that a speaker of the house has been ousted. we have the pro tem speaker patrick. he comes from a list that speaker mccarthy made. speaker mccarthy made this list that only started after 9/11 in the event of a terrorist attack extremity have continuity of government. we have this one speaker but his only point of legislation that he needs to do on the floor is healthy republican party elect another speaker. there is a lot of names being thrown around but no one has a hold right now. lisa a: it is important to highlight the procedural power of a house speaker. it is more than just reading everyone together and buyi

annmarie: the u.n.e supplies are quickly windowing, and that is not really a lot left when it comes to israelis. there some -- there does seem to be clean water in some areas turned on by the israelis for palestinians living in gaza, but this is a dire humanitarian situation, that individuals in gaza are experiencing, as they tried to flee. some of them are even being blockaded by hamas. if we learned anything from the 2014 conflict, it is hamas also will use humans as shields. they will store their weapons or have their headquarters in places like hospitals or schools. jonathan: is egypt cooperating at the southern border? annmarie: it is very challenging right now. egypt definitely wants a lot of aid from the united states, but egypt also is saying, if we let a lot of palestinians in gaza into egypt, what does this mean for the future? how are we supposed to look after these people? they are under tremendous amount of pressure to get this rafah border open. at the moment, though, we are not seeing a l

annmarie hordern in washington. consider the issues of the eastern mediterranean. the history of the five year yield back to 2007 and may be back to 1992. torsten slok of apollo on the reality. we mentioned the real yield, 2.52%. torsten slok seeing 10% short-term loans. lisa: that is the key and what we've been talking about his baby the legacy of this moment will be the diversions between the big and small. that is why we are seeing all of the acquisitions and we will see what people might call omni roll up. tom: she steals from me. ferro never steals like that. manus: he is a giver. he is munificent. you have equity that is up and a powerful balance sheet and that equips you to do deals much more aggressively. tom: you cannot equate small business america with big business like chevron and h ess. manus: take it down to the bottom level. i am arrived in a new country. why take a mortgage 8%? lisa: that is the reason people say the mortgage market is broken. tom: it is new york. you have to have all-cash like jon f

annmarie: this first leaked out in the israeli press. confirming here at bloomberg as well that the president is waiting this. the risk, if you didn't go, what does that mean if that is now out there? doesn't look like he is backing down? the reward would be to make sure that he is standing, as he said he wants to do, shoulder to shoulder with israel, showing in a forceful way u.s. support for israel. at the same time, it would be a huge show of deterrence to the wider region, most notablyiran. you do not want to get involved in this conflict. the u.s. wants to see this conflict contained along the israel and gaza border with hamas. as oliver says, we expect this potential ground invasion, but at the same time, they want to make sure that this does not spiral out of control. it is why the u.s. now has two aircraft carrier groups in the eastern mediterranean. one is on the way. the eastern mediterranean at this point is armed to the teeth which could also mean that maybe they were planning for the president to go there and why they sent t

annmarie hordern joins us now. does mccarthy have the votes? annmarie: we will soon find out.th is difficult, because republicans hold, even if he has 99% of his conference, they hold such a slim majority. only four other members would need to join with matt gaetz to oust the speaker if democrats also agree to oust him. it is almost in democratic hands. i'm team jefferies spoke earlier. he said he feels like this is a vote of conscience. he wants to hear from every member of his party today. both caucuses met behind closed doors. at that point, he would make a decision on how to vote. if some democrats decide to not show up for vote present, speaker mccarthy could maintain the gavel. the margins would be easier to clear, but this is going to be difficult. potentially he will lose his job. guy: when the democrats want anything in return for keeping come of -- for keeping kevin mccarthy in his seat? annmarie: he said that is off the table. he says we have the majority. why would we surrender it? i am not willing to do deals with the democrats to maintain this job. what we do kno

we first go to annmarie hordern. the ambassador putting the positive spin. we are still here.he reality in washington, d.c.? are serious questions being asked about american commitments to the war. annmarie: president biden admitted he is worried about funding for ukraine eight and says he plans to make a major address to explain to the american people why the u.s. needs to be this indispensable backdrop when it comes to the invasion of ukraine and sending security money to kyiv. today at about noon the president will be briefed on ukraine with his national security team. this also includes the new chair of the joint chiefs of staff. this will be the first time he will be with the president discussing ukraine. invited made it clear -- joe biden made it clear he is nervous. there is no speaker in the house of representatives. the divisions are there between the republican party. even when you look at the top two contenders to become the speaker in the republican caucus, there is jim jordan who is the chair of the house judiciary and a staunch ally of former president donald tru

annmarie: shore up his votes.e not seen happen since 1910, but there is concerned mccarthy could lose his speakership. the most important meetings are the democratic and republican caucus. both of those groups will meet at 9:00 and it does appear the fate of speaker mccarthy is in the hands of hakeem jeffries. mccarthy could only lose four republicans if all of the democrats vote in favor of ousting him. what punch bowl news is reporting is that there were seven republicans who are a hard no, we do not want mccarthy, or we are leading that way. this has to play into hakeem jeffries hand. republicans want to talk about comments he made on pot save america that if a speaker is elected he should be speaker for the entire congress, to have some institutional continuity. potentially hakeem jeffries will say some democrats do not show up or vote present to make the margins easier for mccarthy to clear. you don't have to vote that you want to keep him, but do not vote at all. this morning will be very critical depending

annmarie: 100%. jonathan:amh on the latest in washington dc. aid come it is about pressure within his own party, from his own democratic colleagues in blue states and blue cities. tom: the governor of texas has got to say i guess i jumpstarted the debate but the answer is you mentioned earlier, mayor adams of new york in parts of central and south america, talking it up. lisa, i thought you had a great point they. it is front and center. lisa: my problem with it is just i do not know that there's any kind of ability to come to a consensus about actual, rational immigration policy that would need to be changed to create a situation. it is going back to some classic, hot button issues that are -- lizzy: i think america is not on the same page of the politicians. i think america has a whole another view. jonathan: kelsey berro of jp morgan joining us very shortly. 10 year 4.72. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you

annmarie: kevin mccarthy went through 15 rounds on the house floor.publicans that were able to get the nominating -- steve scalise did not even take into the floor even though they are able to get the majority within their caucus. when they start to then make those phone calls and figure out if they are going to have more than four people vote against them, steve scalise realized, i am not going to take into to before, whether one around -- round or 15 rounds. jim jordan did take it to the floor but it did not work for him in a number of rounds. what they saw kevin mccarthy go through, they realized maybe it is best i figure this out. also, now we are months in. this has gotten personal for a lot of people. the battle lines have been drawn for a lot of these people. they have hardened. you have a really good feeling on whether or not you are going to make it through before you take it to the floor. tom: you joe mathieu en balance of power had the gentleman from north carolina. he is a meteorologist. he has cap -- he is a --. are there southern rhinos

annmarie: one think the u.s. chinese could do is they could say to putin and the iranians we will slow down our buying of your petroleum products. manus: or there could be a tightening of the screws on iranian exports. annmarie: but those sanctions have not gone anywhere. but they have turned a blind eye to the sanctions and that is why iran is able to make money. and he was the buyer, china. all of these commodities, china is buying up. manus: the iranian foreign minister is here and he is warning the united states you will not be spared if the israel/hamas war spreads. these are aggressive statements. how seriously you should those statements be taken. annmarie: a lot of it has to be fiery rhetoric. there has been a lot of backlash on even given him a visa and allowing him to enter the country. we have seen in the past, allow people on visas. this is fiery rhetoric and it comes on the heels of u.s. attacks in syria. but what comes with the strikes? is it u.s. military personnel? military facilities? lisa: looki

annmarie: i think they are talking to everyone.ur men and women in iraq, airbases from general pat talked about they are coming under increased fire. there's a lot of uptick in drone activity. yesterday, the destroyer in the red sea intercepted missiles and drones that were headed to israel. this is going to be front and center for this administration and the pentagon as we go into the weekend. jonathan: you nailed it. the president had a purpose. let's talk about the purpose. a formal request. 100 billion dollars in resources. how does that happen without a speaker of the house? how is this going to work for the next few days and weeks ? annmarie: if he asked individuals who actually drafted the language of what a pro tem speaker does, they would say the speaker has the time to put something on the floor, especially when it has to deal with emergency situations. the republican party is chaotic. we just do not know how they want to proceed. jim jordan is saying he is going to go to the floor for a third vote. potentially will get a

annmarie: we know from an interview that that is one asked.this moment, his easing thing is not guaranteed that meeting. there will be a flurry of meetings with these bipartisan group of senators. in 2015, xi jinping sat down with a number of congressional leaders on a state visit but normally what you would see is senators or any sort of lawmakers are cabinet ministers would meet with other ministers within the chinese communist party government apparatus but not xi jinping himself. a xi meeting could be on the agenda and this could open up the door for that biden/xi jinp ing meeting that could happen. senator schumer said other things will be brought up like human rights and fentanyl but we know that micron is important for both -- for this bipartisan group. not just where they are headquartered but potentially where they will build new factories. one will be put in new york. micron said in the summer that half of their sales are linked to companies headquartered in china. this cybersecurity view has been a huge deal in this company and whet

annmarie: absolutely not.d key swing states. what is notable about it is a number of the swing states, he actually won them in. 2020 five of the seven that trump is beating biden's arizona, georgia, north carolina, pennsylvania and wisconsin. they are all states he won in 2020, except north carolina. an underlying issue it shows is the economy. it really has voters on edge. and inflation is their concern. they think that trump potentially could do a better job. we are talking about what is going on in israel and the a that by then wants to request for ukraine. when it comes to foreign policy, even though president biden loves to tout that he was the chair of senate or in relations and vice president, he is now commander-in-chief. this poll, trump's leading 11 points when it comes to china and seven points when it comes to issues regarding ukraine. voters in the swing states think trump is stronger on foreign policy than the current president. jonathan:jonathan: let's talk about energy. all roads seem to lead t

annmarie: for the most part, very united.hen it comes to aid for israel. there have been fractures in the past regarding support for israel, especially amongst members of the progressive wing of the party. i am thinking of the squad. many have condemned what happened over the weekend but also noted about some of the devastating living conditions that palestinians have had over the decades and also poking holes at the current far right wing of the israeli government. jonathan: and rick, thank you. let's continue this conversation with the senior fellow for israeli affairs of the middle east institute. thank you for joining us. i want to pick up upon a story been discussing, the relationship between israel and saudi arabia. are we getting closer to some kind of packed? there was a sense on monday the what took place over the weekend would set us back. do you share that? nimrod: with what we have seen, and off stepping of the saudi's, engagement, [indiscernible] then it's athletes. there is an interest in the saudi's. engaging w

annmarie: i think it depends on who you ask.d since the invasion of ukraine is that while americans did at first support ukraine there have been more concerns about how long this conflict is going to last and how much money u.s. taxpayer money is being sent to ukraine without an end goal or end in division for the conflict. the longer these conflicts drag on, the harder it is for politicians to sell them. the number one priority for americans right now if you look at every single hole is the economy. and then and it comes to the economy it is their concerns with inflation. tom: oliver we are tonight in the eastern mediterranean when things happen. should we look for in the israeli evening? oliver: what is interesting ever since i came back sunday, there's not been a single air raid siren in tel aviv or israel that i have heard which was a regular occurrence 2-3 times a day. this may be speaking to some of the depletions of resources hamas has in terms of longer-range missiles but what you're watching again is the same thing with

annmarie: alix: boe is speaking about how interest rates have turned positive.er inflation forecast is on the high end that they have. she says monetary policy only recently became restrictive. is it possible the u.s. models along and does so k? they have a lot of fiscal spend but will it help growth versus europe? >> it's interesting because the u.s. does seem to be bubbling through. it has been a soft landing for the u.s. for some time. we've seen inflation come back down towards 3% which is fairly healthy territory. it has started to creep back up in the u.s.. we are still forecasting in the u.s., one point 7% gdp growth this year. it's slower than last year but we are forecasting it is slow again next year. that's still growth. guy: we are talking about government investment and there is a lot of fury and there are stories today about rates going up significantly because utilities have to make significant investments. if we get to elevated borrowing costs, how much of this will be feasible? the government will spend more on infrastructure and less on day tod

annmarie: great question.republican conference where the fish -- fresh faces were able to pitch what they would do when they get the gavel and then the whittled it down to eight individuals. and coming out of that, it seems to be in individual that is leading the pack, tom emaar, part of the leadership. he is third or fourth in the leadership line. he has a lot of whip and support from the caucus. when he goes back in, there will be ballots probably 2-3 it will be because you have to get a majority behind closed doors and then the individual will be the republican caucus nominee for speaker. this will be the fourth one. we had kevin mccarthy, steve scalise, jim jordan, and he will be the fourth nominee. we will likely get the name today. the question becomes, can that individual get to 17 votes -- 217 votes on the house floor? that is what has made this process difficult. even if an individual has a majority of their conference if they cannot get to 217 on that floor, they cannot become speaker. >> we been her

annmarie: domestically the president has growing concern including the policy in the middle east.ns is to contain it. and when the defense minister will come to washington dc today my the administration wants to contain what is going on in the middle east but what we see in a state like michigan which is a key swing state hillary clinton lost them by over 10,000 votes. if the third already candidate was not there she probably would have won she can. it's critical for the democratic already. ayden has two issues in michigan. the large population of the palestinian diaspora. there's been a lot of her wording with nbc having a story out talking to people saying we will stay at home and we will not vote for joe biden. we feel like he let is down and there's uaw work or's in those households. when we looked at the swing state is showed former president donald trump is making headway in the uaw households. that's why michigan is an interesting state. gina: flash one year. we are a year out from the 2024 alexion how nickel is this specifically in that election landscape relative to every

annmarie: live pictures of the skyline in gaza as we continue to see fighting after israel officiallylared war against hamas for its surprise attack. fighting continues for a third day. the u.n. said tens of thousands of people have been displaced in gaza as israeli defense forces continue to target hamas positions on the strip. we are hearing from secretary and blinken in the u.s.. he had a call with the saudi foreign minister and they discussed the hamas attacks on israel. we are watching closely what the regional implications will be. we are watching a potential wildcard that could be iran. a major oil producer and key backer of the hamas group. this also at a time when we have seen three-way discussions between washington and riyadh and israel. we will bring you the latest. as of now, fighting between israel and hamas entering its third day. look at how futures are trading. this is the first reaction to the shark attack of hamas on israel. we are seeing downside after the s&p 500, on friday it gained ground and managed to snap a four week losing streak. we had positive news from t

tom: i was taking annmarie through civic lessons and i guess every speaker has a lot of power.the leadership with the republican party or what attached himself to the hockey player from minnesota and the others? edward: i think you attach himself to the majority leader. i go back to the last time we had a speaker that no one really had heard of which is speaker hassard, you have the most empowered majority leader in decades. when you saw him have -- i was watching steve scalise come majority leader from his state of louisiana, was standing right behind him and told him exactly what to say. he said next question, let's talk about policy. mike johnson said next question so he is lockstep with the current majority. tom: thank you so much for the wisdom on capitol hill. lisa: congressman tom massey said nobody hates them, talking about mike johnson. that is his best asset. tom: that is what jonathan ferro says about me. futures -35. the market here. the important ecb meetings. i am looking at it and reveling. -- unraveling. 10 year 4.79%. the yen 150.34. good morning. on the ecb, a