i want to bring in bianco research president jim bianco.e something like this, is it, i will use the red mark, that's a lot more than 40%. is this, is this professional pride and ego or it feels like it is so overdone it will eventually come back? >> i think it is the former, i think it is professional pride and ego. i think the mistake we made and here is my bad analogy for you, we had a sugar high in the bond market from 2010 to 2020 because the fed was buying bonds. they created market diabetes. now they're taking the sugar away, we have hypoglycemia. sore for that. people still think this 2010 to 2020 period was normal this might be closer to normal. that is why they have been buying. they think up here is normal this is somehow out of line. it is getting difficult to get people to readjust their thinking. charles: i agree with you in a sense, between you know, the fed intervention and then the fiscal response to the covid crisis, it feels like all the traditional models are out of the way but this new paradigm thinking it feels like pe

thank you. >> thank you. >> jim bianco, bianco research. 5.5% by jan 1. how does that factor into seasonality, in terms of the santa claus rally? >> we're actually -- >> come on. can't we wait for halloween to get -- >> no. boo. >> that was one of the great episodes of all time. we should find that in the archive. i don't adhere to seasonality, but i'll play your reindeer game and say, if we see 5.5% over the next few weeks, the equity market will not like that and we will be -- where did we close, 43 and change? we will be testing 4,000, under those set of circumstances that jim just talked about. >> for the record, i was going to ask you, where do stocks go with yields -- >> i'm in your head. i'm in your head. of course you did. >> all right, let's get the nvidia. reportedly planning to team up with arm to make chips for pcs. the news taking a bite out of intel and amd shares. kristina partsinevelos has the defails. >> well, reuters reporting that both nvidia and amd are looking to build the central processing units for personal computers by 2025. this

i want to bring in bianco research president jim bianco. jill, i want to begin with earnings.eems like it will be key. i have a chart here going back to 2020 of composition of returns of this market. go back to 2020, it was all about multiple growth. 23% of move was multiple growth. year after that, 2021, 34% of the move was earning. big, big year for earnings. this year it has been 5% earnings, 5% multiple growth. obviously there is not a lot of room left for multiple growth particularly in the key names. to me, earnings this is it, earnings have to really come out, some big numbers and some big guidance. what are your thoughts? >> well i agree with you. the key is going to be that you're going to have to see some big earning numbers. the economy is also set to report on thursday that gdp number. that should presage the third quarter earnings should be good. the reason you need them to be good because you talked about multiple contraction. what leads to multiple contraction, higher interest rates. if the stock market has a hurdle of higher interest rates it needs to outperfor

and jim bianco was here last night, we're having this conversation with really smart people that understand both the technical, the fiscal, and even call them the qualitative, or the governance factors here, but yields gave ground today because the economy looked weaker. we had a couple data points, amazing, are we rooting for a slightly weaker economy? that is also absurd. >> for more on the turmoil in d.c., let's bring in senior national political reporter at nbc news. great to have you with us. what's your understanding of the timeline of when we will have a speaker in place? >> hey, melissa. it's not clear yet. what we do know, we expect house republicans to huddle early next week, likely on tuesday, to talk amongst themselves and what they're calling a candidate forum for potential new speaker to introduce themselves to the conference and make their case. then they could get in a room together and vote as early as wednesday, and see if they have a consensus choice. now, remember, they could do this one of two ways. they could get a majority of their conference, pick a speaker candidate

jim bianco posted a chart of this philly fed survey is of all these mavens on recession who have beenentially saying it's going to happen, but it still hasn't happened. your thoughts. >> yeah. charles, great to be here with you on friday afternoon. as you noted, the speech yesterday from chair powell, the q and a, i think it had something actually for everyone, a mixed performance, if you will. to me, it gave pretty clear signals that the fed is done from here or at least in the bottom with of the ninth inning. of course, he won't explicitly say that, but we can see that in the fed funds futures data. no hikes left here in 2023, probably the first cuts coming over the summer. in fact, the november probability has crashed all the way down to zero. the december probability has now been trending down for a couple weeks. in terms, you know, of equities, they're confirming there's just no bids. this is just a temporary risk-off environment. charles: mike, how do you explain that? -- blake, how do you explain that? the very first line of powell's message seemed to be putting the market at e

jim bianco -- you know those slaughterhouse type scales, jim bianco said imagine the scales at beat airporttep on with your banks. that would be wonderful -- that would do wondrous -- that would do wonders for public affairs. jon: if --tom: there are somebody in front of me -- at some point, the beast cannot get off the ground. lisa: you pay extra for the suitcases but that would not look good with you have people basically going on the scale and they have a meet scale. tom: why are you looking at me? jon: we are -- we should get the analyst from jeffries and we should have this conversation. is this a benefit for is epic that the average passenger weight will fall by 10 pounds? lisa: the side effects are real. jon: people firming up by the plane? [laughter] lisa: the side effects to us epic needs to be explored before we trade around it. tom: full disclosure, i am not doing is epic --ozempic. why are you laughing? stop it. [laughter] endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own o

i'm thinking about jim bianco who says the disinflation is transitory.uld you say back to that? >> there are parts that are likely sustained. i think the encouraging trend we have seen is the step down and rent and oer inflation to give you context, these categories account for about one third of overall cpi and 40% of core cpi. the fact that we have seen momentum in rent and oer inflation starting to step down as a very encouraging sign and we think this is something that can be sustained. we have already seen data on private indicators of rents normalized to those levels and we think the data is playing catch-up to that. lisa: as inflation does come down then real wages start to pick up, especially of some of these labor negotiations are ongoing and able to win over concessions. if that is the case, what is the risk of re-acceleration if consumers have more disposable income based on their earnings to go out and spend? >> absolutely. that is the risk we have been highlighting. if we need inflation to come down what we need alongside that is in easing a

michael depaulo, jim bianco, and terry haynes.from new york , this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financialll that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. tom: bloomberg surveillance, lisa abramowicz, in tom keene. jonathan ferro is off preparing. the president's comments near 1:00 p.m.. we hear sirens in tel aviv. lisa: waiting for what? that is important. the markets are waiting for something. the war that you referenced has changed the narrative with

jon: tons of fed speak and we will do that with jim caron of morgan stanley, david bianco.t 40 -- 48 hours, jason goldberg from barclays. tom: i am really attuned to the conference calls and do they say we need to wait another 90 days to really understand market to market dynamics versus bond price -- jon: for tickly for the likes of bank of america where there seems to be a big focus in the market. from new york city this is bloomberg. ♪ (captivating music) ♪ (♪♪) the first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. (♪♪) but it can be passed on to the next generation. (♪♪) explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. the power goes out and we still have wifi it's possible. to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you onli