second, ecb third, so we are not probably too much different from the ecb.f inflation remains above 3%, i don't see the incentive for the federal reserve to cut rates even with the governor and some of his comments yesterday. the fed is ultimately going to be much more balanced, and we have a meeting coming up in two weeks, and i think that will probably be the point where we are really going to get a little better signaling. guy: ok, better signaling. let's talk about that. the market is pushing central banks to cut rates. central banks these days don't like to provide surprises and if the market embeds these rate cuts, the fed will either have to push back, the ecb will have to push back, the bank of england to a certain extent already has on that to get does that moment have to come sooner rather than later? ira: i think jay powell and most numbers of the fed want to be balanced and try to convince the market that they are going to be on hold. two months ago, we were talking about and the fed was mentioning the market is doing some of our work for us with

will the numbers give the ecb because to pause. far right leaders secures a dramatic win in the dutch elections, promising a referendum on leaving the eu that sent shockwaves through the region. happy thanksgiving if you are stateside. u.s. markets are closed today. here in europe they are open but volatility will be extremely low. it's likely to be a quiet one. the king at euro stocks, ftse futures are flat. it follows the s&p 500's gain yesterday of .4%. resuming this in time for the holiday. that index up around 8%. on track for its best month since july. something to be grateful for. u.s. futures are pretty flat as well. meanwhile, the dollar weakening today. got pop yesterday from jobless claims coming in lighter than expected. that survey showing higher inflation expectations. the dollar pairing those gains this morning off the back of the yuan leading, asian currencies higher because of the strong fixing from the pboc. we will get more on asian markets with avril hong. in commodities, crude prices as well continuing to be pr

all eyes will be on what the ecb has to say about their own rate hike pack. do they follow the same lead jay powell and his peers set for the rest of the world, 10:00 a.m. u.k. time, some of the final readings for the euro area cpi. if you see major changes could move your investor playbook. you can get a full round up of the stories you need to know to get your days going. if you are a terminal subscriber. all you have to do is type in da go on your bloomberg terminal. you will see a lot of the major conversations, including the one on geopolitics. a big week ending with progress on the diplomatic front, and that's where i want to go next. coming up on the program, u.s. president joe biden says world history will be written in asia in the coming years. being of the latest from the apec summit dive into just how much progress has actually been made. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: the mayor will travel to germany to discuss reforming the eu stability pact. this is the euro areas to morse -- most important economies to look for agreement on those fiscal rules. mar

even ecb, the quirks of the data .n we have all learned, the story of the 1970's when entry excel at -- when it really accelerated. the central bank is aware of it. how big of a danger is there that we see the data starting to tick up and at that point do we see an overreaction from the financial markets? iain: if you go back through previous cycles, the federal reserve typically cuts rates before the recession starts by a number of months. this time around it might not be the case, they may want to see the whites of the eyes. they are concerned they ease too early and when inflation is not fully under control at financial markets run away with it. it is that higher for longer, trying to keep rates at a high rate until they are fully committed to it. which means they might be a little bit late this time around. guy: maybe we get the soft lending as a result. iain stealey, fixed income at j.p. morgan asset management. european markets are closed. this is what the numbers look like. volume is very light. these are not se

ahead of the ecb is now preparing the ground for that debate. said the timing comes to now put this fully on the table. again, this is a balancing act. a reason it has created chit chat on the market is if you believe no more hikes are coming, this is now a whole story, then the attention would shift from the rate policy to the balance sheet. lizzy: we have a meeting coming on december the 14th, did she drop clues about the policy path ahead? maria: yes, this was the final meeting of the year that will be in frankfurt. it has been this very aggressive hiking cycle for the european central bank. remember, they do not want to say openly they are down. they don't want to talk about cuts, numbers of the governing council still believe that if there was to be a take up of inflation, we could see another rate hike. the reality is the market does not believe that. they believe we've entered higher for longer and when they switch, two cuts, that something the ecb does not want to talk about but there is a zeitgeist in the market. when it comes to inflat

so no further rate hikes by the ecb. facing a discussion it doesn't like, namely when will we see the first rate cuts by the ecb, in an economy that is stagnating, continuing to flirt with recession and in an economy where recession has come down to below 3% already. can where recession has come down to below 3% already.— to below 396 already. can i 'ust aet from to below 396 already. can i 'ust get from you i to below 396 already. can i 'ust get from you a i to below 396 already. can i 'ust get from you a sense i to below 396 already. can i 'ust get from you a sense of h to below 396 already. can ijust get from you a sense of where | get from you a sense of where you are at, when it comes to the outlook for the global economy then, because there are many pessimists out there but there are also those who are quite optimistic about 2024. where are you at as all the central bank governors and of course we have the autumn statement in the uk tomorrow, where they are all talking about trying to keep control of inflation? ::

guy: do you think the ecb cuts earlier than the fed or the fed cuts earlier than the ecb?ut interest rate expectations in europe have been pulled dramatically forward. this combination of a weak economy, a plunging inflation, has given massive policy flexibility back to the ecb, and from the investor standpoint, that's a huge insurance policy, so if i'm wrong and we get a hard landing and a deep recession, the cuts can come now. six month ago, they could not. guy: let's kind of continue along the teddy bears. at the moment, the soft landing feels like a landing on a teddy bear. it feels like everything's going to be ok, inflation coming down, central banks can cut. jamie was here a moment ago talking about how his big risk is actually that we do see the data cratering from here, that the model suggests it should crater from here, that we should get a harder landing. what you just described in terms of the investment case, does that work in that scenario? ben: a little bit. the interest rate put is now bear -- now there. it was not six months ago. the markets are forward-lo

certainly the fed and ecb.ve an interesting view on the bank of england, given some of those supply-side challenges. i think the fed will cut before the ecb. and a lot of that relates to the difference in the mandates of the central banks. more explicit inflation targeting, ecb, whereas the fed has to balance the activity data and labor market data with the inflationary data. and already the euro zone has still got a bigger inflation challenge and inflation rigidity than the u.s. does. i think the fed will be q3, and our forecast for the ecb will be q4. guy: lay next to. that is going to be interesting to see. janet: late next year and very granule. we probably have a hundred 25 basis points in reductions. guy: that is going to be a very different world. that still maybe even classifies as higher for longer. always a pleasure. janet henry of hsbc. some great coverage coming up tomorrow. u.k. budget. the autumn statement. feels very wintry. you can see it here on bloomberg television. 12:30 p.m. london time. you

still persistent in the system, predominant -- that's why the ecb is looking for agreements and how they come in particular first quarter. but, of course, there is also something coming through these global factors and in some sense these are in the pmis. although i would say overall the picture is one of disinflation overall. >> and looking at inflation, i read your commentary suggesting you're expecting rate cuts from the ecb, starting in june of next year. my question to you is should we expect the ecb to be as fast in bringing rates down as they were in raising them? >> i mean, that's one big distinction. i think that's crucial to make. so this is -- this will be cutting rates to be less restrictive, but not necessarily to run ultimately an expansionary policy which is also why we see them ending rate cuts at 2% in september 2025. so, 2% being here, our best guess at this stage of what a neutral rate could be or could look like for the new era. then, of course, we think that the speed will vary between 25 and 50 basis point clips here, so we think they will start 25 in june and

>> it's difficult given the ecb is sitting on the sideline.trigger to get a big market move. a rating downgrade is something that mechanically would have some price impact. if it's just moody's, i think it is a contained move. sonali: when you think about moves, what you think the most pronounced opportunities are in the markets, when you are looking at btp's versus what is possible in the u.s. or the euro zone? >> with btp's, we think we end year may a little lower than where we are now. we don't have spread widening. we think next year we will get some adjustment. there will be some european shackles on the ability to use fiscal policy. we think there is a rage bounce. the upside is much more in government fixed income, particularly where there is not enough easing price. for us, it is more of a central bank normalization trade where we have three times as much easing in our forecast as is priced by the market over the next couple of years. guy: why are you so -- what is driving that concern that you think the central bank is going to have t

the ecb is mindful.t are being bandied around, i do not think they will come to fruition. guy: great seeing you. u.k. markets done for the day. the headlines telling you virtually nothing at the moment. volume relatively light. great run coming into the end of november. fancy down a bit, dax down a bit -- dax up a bit, cac down a bit. hsbc cutting price targets on a number of european luxury stocks. alix: moutier. guy: alix has been practicing. director of luxury and sporting goods explaining her call next. this is bloomberg. ♪ a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire ne

is done here and the discussion really is around when the ecb will turn to cuts. in our base where inflation holds up and remains at 2%, we don't think they're going to be in a rush to cut, but they will cut, we think, in the third quarter, and portly, of course, they have the option to cut earlier. so when you put that together, we think it's a somewhat more constructive picture. >> i royn't to come onto the ecb in just a moment first on the manufacturing side where you're seeing really depressed activity across the eurozone, it's been pretty disappointing. how are you seeing that affecting the growth picture a lot of the pressure we've been seeing comes from outside the eurozone. >> that's right. we have seen the gas crisis weigh in on the activity we've seen higher interest rates weigh in on activity and growth in china weigh in on activity. we think the financial picture will get a bit better but not a lot. it won't be the driver next year because you have on the one hand stable interest rates and the decline in gas prices that we've seen relative to where we

janet: i am confident that the next move will be downwards from ecb. to be there is a 50 to chance of a rate cut as soon as march. i think that will be the reassurance across the ecb that they don't have to continue to tighten policy. it was only the last few days that there was talk of bringing forward investment of the program. i think the next move is down but more than likely it will not be on 91st half of 2024. lisa: do you think that is because inflation is not going to come down enough or because of the conditioning of ecb numbers getting it so wrong in terms of how quickly inflation accelerated? janet: i think inflation is still too high. we got a 2.4 improve on inflation from the eurozone and a downside surprise in core inflation. core inflation is still running at 3.5%. we know that november is the trough. headline inflation is probably giving the base effects going to start rising again from december. we are optimistic core inflation does continue to edge somewhat lower over the course of the next few months. it will still be too high and ec

ecb president christine lagarde speaks, this might be at a museum.t much in terms of policy. powell is speaking at the imf conference. there we might see some pushback from the markets and what they've done of late. we will see. alix: ok. but, and? is there something you want to talk about? something else you want to talk about? guy: i -- this is great. alix: what is that on your desk, guy? guy: you don't have one of these, do you? alix: i talk about the energy transition all the time, i am on call after call, and this guy gets a toy wind turbine. totally not cool. guy: i'm genuinely very happy with this. this will have a private place on my desk. the vestas wind turbine that henrik gave me. apparently they had a few issues getting this through airports occurred this morning. alix: really? that is interesting. guy: very sharp. alix: ok. guy: you can come visit it. ♪ ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhh

that could be a debate at the bank of england and the ecb. kriti: it is a fascinating story and it could turn the brief kind of reprieve we have gotten in the bond market as well. jamie rush, we thank you for your analysis this morning. as he was speaking about where the fed might lead we should mention the atlanta fed president will be joining us for an exclusive interview. you do not want to miss this at 7:30 p.m. london time. 3:30 p.m. in new york. do you hike in the face of the geopolitical risk? that is the part of the equation i want to dive into next. coming up, idf troops encircling gaza city as israel insists a is not on the table. this all as u.s. secretary of state antony blink and returns to the region. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: welcome back to daybreak europe. antony blinken is set to land in tel aviv shortly to meet with prime minister benjamin netanyahu. israel's military says its troops have encircled gaza city insisting a cease fire is not on the table. joining us for more, the head of middle east and north africa practice

. >>> european markets open lower with luxury and healthcare stocks lead the declines as the ecb cautionshe fight against inflation is not complete and refuses to rule out further rate hikes. >>> israel and hamas agree to extend the cease-fire for two days as secretary blinken prepares to visit for the third time in the region. >>> and the foreign affairs ministers are here in brussels to shore up support for ukraine while sweden continues to push for succession. jens stoltenberg is eager to discuss it. we will hear more from espen barth eide, the foreign minister of norway, this hour. >>> warm welcome to "street signs." our top story is around the ipo market. cnbc learned shein filed confidential papers to be listed in the u.s. the chinese fast fashion group was valued at $66 billion and could list in 2024 according to sources. sources tell cnbc the company tapped goldman sachs and jpmorgan chase to be the lead underwriters on the offering. >> the market debut comes after a string of lackluster ipos this year. birkenstock and instacart and arm all climbed below the stock market debut thi

we also have the ecb's expectations. those will be big drivers.uy: use on the monitor she is very excited about the survey. >> that is 2:00 p.m. est. after hours for me but i will still be peeking into my terminal. we have seen conditions tighten. we have seen that struggle feet into the economy. there's a lot of speculation, powell was not as hawkish as we feared because potentially citations -- guy: these guys talk to the banks all the time so am skeptical this new information. the fed and other central bank seven talking about the i did the markets have been doing the heavy lifting for them but now the markets are going the other way. don't central banks have to lean back in on that? >> that is a big fear, especially with tensions in the middle east pushing oil prices higher. energy is a big indicator of where inflations come. that is been weighing on where inflation is headed. also whether or not we will potentially get one more hike out of the fed or ecb or boe, and that is really tying into that narrative we are seeing. yes, you are sick a l

i think the market has both the boe and the ecb priced correctly.k the fed is priced incorrectly. it is likely to cut much more than what is priced in but i think the ecb -- we saw the inflation numbers today. if we look at three-month annualized core inflation, it is sub 1%. we think inflation can rise back up including the eurozone for a little while but that is when the ecb meets so it will be important to look at the 2025 inflation forecast which is still above 2% so that is why i think based on the loss projection which was in september. i think it will be really interesting to see the new projection and i would imagine that based on some of the recent numbers, it will be below 2%. street expects three cuts from the ecb and i think that is fair for next year. alix: she is speaking right now, -- it is less restricted than we thought. rates should be restricted for an extended period. if she's talking like that, talk me through the nuance of the trade between a u.k. two-year and u.s. two-year. where do i play that trade? bhanu: the most mispriced

the ecb rate has paused. that pause means that our deposits margin is likely to be under some more pressure, but having said that, i expect the rates to be higher for longer, and that gives structural support of our net interest income going forward. kriti: you mentioned the ecb and it is not a surprise when people are talking about which g10 economy is going to crack first, europe immediately comes to mind. do you feel confident in your loan book right now? why do you feel that perhaps the macroeconomic issues that are happening specifically in europe , how recession proof is your loan book? tanate: our view about the overall picture is one of caution. we do recognize that geopolitics is getting more uncertain. the path for gdp growth or declines is getting more uncertain, but within that context, we have a well diversified lending book and a very strong track record of credit management, and that has served us well in many cycles, including this one, so we are cautious, very prudent, and at the same time th

i think the ecb is in a good place with that.aria: what are the risks that could derail that when it comes to inflation? there's a lot of focus on the short term, the geopolitics, the awful war between israel and thomas. -- hamas. what's the biggest risk for you in the medium-term? >> wage growth is good for the economy. some catching up with past inflation is essential for consumption to recover which is underlying our forecast of a mild recovery next year. however, wages could also be too exuberant in their growth. so while solid wage growth is built into our forecast, if it goes beyond productivity growth it could be a pressure point for inflation upward. it could be a slightly longer term risk renovation. -- for inflation. maria: we are in brussels. there's also a commission report that they are expecting on how to boost competitiveness. there's a lot of talk about, how can europe get that edge to grow more essentially. do you believe the performance has been disappointing? is there a concern that you could be growing more bu

on loans and on credit cards >> finally, nathan, it sounds like, correct me if i'm wrong, you think ecb cuts before the fed does, and i wonder, is that going to be the european economy is under more duress >> yeah, exactly our call is for the fed to start cutting in july we have ecb actually cutting a month or so earlier. i would say there's a risk that the ecb, given the softness of the economy, our sense is that where it's currently in recession, the economy contracted in q3 we have that data. we expect it tocontinue to contract in q4 and q1. in that environment, inflation may start to fall more ropdly in europe and that would open the door for anything earlier cuts by the ecb. >> on a day where this german ppi number is pretty interesting, too nathan, thank you. always good to check in with you. happy thanksgiving nathan sheets. >> that's right. the holidays are here. the trees and decorations are up at one market. that also means a busy week of travel is upon us. the ceo of enterprise mobility joins to discuss her outlook plus, we'll look at why airlines are starting to sell $29 tic

how does it look for the ecb?> from our vantage point, they have, the european inflation issued to do with. inflation is relatively global. we have seen the most pronounced, the most synchronized and the steepest rate hikes i -- in history. they all moved at the same time. emerging markets like brazil have frontloaded this rate hikes in the u.s. so, emerging markets are done on average much better than any previous rate hikes. they did not see the capital outflows to the u.s. so there is no problem about reversals. there are start and stop issues because money stopped floating for some emerging markets but from in ecb's vantage point, the ecb's likely going to go on pause and wait for what will happen. there will be a massive repricing still ahead. bonds v. equity. i think the equity markets are favored by the tailwinds of a lot of liquidity are going to see the withdrawal of liquidity by central banks as a structural headwind. so for the correction in the equity market in my view is likely in europe as in the u.s

the big question nows, who's going to cut first, the fed or the ecb? >> who is it? >> we're pricing in an april ecb cut for the first time. >> they're priced almost the same. >> april, may? >> yeah. you could imagine, though, the activity data in the u.s., to your point, sara, holding up a little longer, a little more resilient. let's see how that all plays out. >> but yet the ecb cares more about inflation. >> single mandate. >> than the fed. that's a tossup. >> yeah, it -- >> i think neith want to be first. >> i think that's probably true. >> andrew, thank you. >> thank you. >> we'll probably talk to you before either one cuts. >>> in the meantime, let's turn to energy. oil at the lows of the day as opec plus oil producers meet. brian sullivan has had an eventful morning, week, year. >> a lot going on. >> yes. what do we make of this latest round? >> there's nothing to make yet. there's been headlines out there that opec has agreed to a cut of 1 million barrels a day. maybe. but the meeting is still going on. there's three meetings oday, opec -- they're all virtua

. >> i think central banks -- i think there's a common view between the fed and the ecb acknowledge theation when you look at inflation, we have to make a distinction between holistic inflation, core inflation and services inflation. the latter is probably the most steady however, i don't think anybody claims victory on this battle. >> that's clear. you're getting that, including from the boston fed president who was on our network today collins. let's listen to what she told steve liesman and we can react on the other side of that. >> three-month core is still at 3.4%, steve. that's higher than we want in order to get back down to 2% in a reasonable amount of time we need to be patient and resolute and i wouldn't take additional firming off the table. we need who look holistically at the data >> this is the message you're getting from everywhere, correct? too soon to declare victory, but we can afford to be patient. >> there is always a debate about is 2% the proper benchmark going forward. >> what do you think did you hear jim gorman this week who said, you know what maybe it's not ma

the ecb, same sort of thing if you look at inflation turning up. it does not mean you will see an immediate rise in inflation but in inflation but in the next 6-8 months that the backdrop looks different. growth has not deteriorated to a degree that the ecb needs to cut. they are talking about hiking again. the same for the bank of england. you have the worst of both worlds. probably a weaker growth situation and the worst inflation situation. it depends on which they prioritize. the bank of england could be in that situation where the next move they are talking about is a hike. dani: the boe might be talking about a hike. what do you think about the idea that the next move from the fed could be a hike? >> i think for most of the central banks, including the bank of england and the european as well as the fed, the easiest and simplest path for them is wait and see. do nothing it from their view based on the forecast that most of these central banks have, they have inflation coming down as part of their forecast. in their view and it goes back to yo

. >> i want to bring you some lines out of the ecb survey for anyone who's been looking at what the ecb have been saying since, of course, that last meeting decision. they have now said that according to the survey they put out, consumers are seeing inflation of 4% in the next 12 months versus 3.5% in the previous 12 months. that's interesting. consumers' expectation for the inflation sees it at higher. that tells you, julianna, that at least over the last couple of weeks or so, expectations of where inflation is going to end up has moved d higher. >> that is really interesting. they've joined the federal reserve in pausing interest rates and it feels as though much of the conversation has begun in cutting rates. as you said, the survey expectations come in higher than they were given the narrative around all three of these major banks. it's been much more around where they're going to cut. >> that's exactly what we're seeing in the marketplace, julianna, as investors focus on the next step. we're seeing more and more rate cuts being priced into 2024. that has given a bit of a boost to

responded by raising the key rate, now, according to the head of the ecb, supply lags behind demand, consumer, investment areas, and this of course affects inflation, and for further growth of the economy, it is necessary to increase labor productivity. we started raising the rate when it became obvious that the acceleration of inflation was not due to the direct or indirect effects of sanctions, but due to the obvious lag of supply opportunities from the rapid growth of demand. i want to emphasize once again that we are now in a situation where the economy has almost fully utilized available resources, this applies to both working hands and production capacity, unemployment is 3%, and in some regions it is even less. the key rate at the beginning of 2022 was reduced quite quickly in september from 22 to 7.5%, at this moderate level it remained until july of this year, in october 2023 the key rate was increased to 15%, according to elvira nabiulina has no need or goal to maintain the ruble exchange rate in a given range; of course, the dynamics of the key rate affects inflation expec

that will be the fed's [audio drop] at the same time, we should say christine lagarde over at the ecbill be speaking as well so a lot happening in the 1:00 p.m. our. we will have live coverage on bloomberg television. in addition, by the way, to our full coverage of the cop summit. the eu climate conference officially opening today in dubai. what you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of debris terminal. type in dayb go on your bloomberg terminal. you will get the macro information, chinese pmi's. not to mention a lot of the top stories and legacies of someone that has been crucial to american foreign policy, i would argue global geopolitics in the last century. henry kissinger rose to become secretary of state and defined american policy during the 1970's has now died. . he was aged 100. he won prays for his role in opening china -- praise for his role in opening china to the west and bringing back dÉtente with the soviet union. [audio drop] he also earned the wrath of many for supporting bombing campaigns in both vietnam and cambodia. after leaving office, kissing

the ecb reporting loans to nonfinancials have contracted for the first time since 2015.got more hawkish commentary out of ecb, christine lagarde warning the timeline for ending the bond purchase reinvestments could be accelerated, which is a little more hawkish. also the german head of the bundis bank saying rate hikes may not be over. seems like a concerted effort to talk the market back from getting too excited about the ecb being done. >> the dollar backing off under 1.03 on the dollar index. >> i think that spooked people about the bond purchase reinvestment, speeding up the timeline. >> interesting. >>> turning now to china where a respiratory illness is surging in some parts of the country. our eunice yoon has more. >> reporter: children's wards are getting so crowded that parents have been swapping advice online to bring camping equipment and folding chairs to make the waits more comfortable. er clinics told local media to expect waiting times half a day. sparking fears the country could be dealing with a new pathogen or variant of covid-19. the chinese health aut

the number—two at the ecb is a politician.start to do things which they're doing for political reasons to enhance maybe their own popularity, but not because they actually have a mission to do it. central banks have one very important role with two focuses. one is monetary stability and low inflation, and the other is stability of the financial system. that's a big enoughjob. so when we look at the data on inequality, which appears to be worsening in a general sense around the world. you know the figures, richest 10% of the global population taking now 52% of global income, the poorest half of the world population getting just 8.5% of it. billions of people facing terrible hardship, while the number of billionaires has, and i'm looking at the figures, doubled in the last ten years. are you saying that central banks cannot afford to think about that, should just ignore that context when they make their decisions? they can't set the tax system or deal with redistribution in terms of benefits to people at the bottom. that's for g

the ecb may have to raise rates again.ays is working on a cost-cutting plan. 2000 jobs are potentially on the line in a plan they are working on. recovering with the central banks a lot. what are the details of the report? zoe: things are slowing. this is not the work -- lizzy: things are slowing. this not the work people signed up for. in terms of where the ax will fall, it is reported known as bx, the irony is, we are not part of the set up in 2017. now, they can be the victim of the efficiency curse. kriti: why such a big push now? lizzy: down 26% since the takeover from two years ago. if you compare that to european rivals, deutsche bank has not moved as much, hsbc is actually up. this is a turnaround for investors, and building a new strategy in february. they have turned to strategy advisors to hash out a plan to boost the share price. -- kriti: i love the comparison to other banks and other places in europe. elon musk says there are operations held up in sweden that are insane. garbage collectors and electricians ar

it might be the ecb, for various reasons. they've got a bit of germanic dna, in the way they review decisions. and also because in a way, there is no one government overseeing the ecb, whereas most central banks, there is one central bank government. ing all nationstates are all the economies of the euro area, they will be rules-based and framework based. that's why were going for the german bund at of the major bonds. david: china gdp in local currency terms, we've been reminded by her producers that you want to talk about gdp, why is that relevant? >> we are thinking about how china's growth and industrial demand, we have to look in dollar terms. in terms of how china impacts global growth, we have to convert it all back into dollars. so what i'm really pointing out is the number we had in dollar terms is actually very weak. it was 2.8% are 2.9%. if you start supporting the currency, local currency growth will be under pressure. so i am saying in terms of the impact of china on commodities and industrial demand etc., we hav

the ecb raised rates two times last quarter so that is a big impact.ink they will cut in the first quarter and that will be bullish for bonds. shery: what yields are we talking about next year. >> three and a half to 4%, 70 five basis points lower than we have right now which would be huge in the market. rates have been driving the market for the last couple of months so it is probably the biggest rally next year, a normal santa claus rally this year but we have a 5000 target on the s&p for next year. shery: year end target for this year is 4500 with a santa claus rally. when it comes to as you mentioned rates driving stock markets we saw treasury sales and auctions being such a big deal. will that pressure in the bond space even more? >> investors are focused on that but it is more u.s. growth last quarter 5%, not sustainable. we think that will decelerate and we are focused on the global money supply, so that dropped by $1 trillion over the last two quarters. if you look at a chart, when the ecb took 500 billion out of the money supply in the euro zo

similar question for ecb. at 7 p.m. u.k. time minutes from the fomc meeting.inutes will not normally be market moving but it is important to keep in mind if the market is right about dovish rhetoric or do they have it wrong? earnings are coming in after the close. full round up in the stories to get your day going in today's edition of the terminal. you will see the deep dive into stories we have covered specifically openai but also key central-bank speakers throughout the hour. coming up after the break we have an update from the middle east. hamas is close to a truce. reviving hopes of progress on negotiations. more next, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ kriti: welcome back. the chief of hamas says his group is close to a truce in talks with israel suggesting progress may be coming. joining us is sam in dubai. what has the leader agreed to according to report? >> hi, good to be with you and the viewers. after the statement on telegram, qatar's al jazeera interviewed another official. he told al jazeera that we could be hearing something in the next hours and with deta

investors reviewing kmecomments from the ecb. christine lagarde spoke before parliament and they were not starting to think about cutting rates. today, another ecb member saying rate hikes are not necessarily over. perhaps that digested by the investment community in europe and contributing to the sentiment in equities. breaking it down by sector, you see a particular selloff in media and food and beverage and heal healthcare. household goods sector down 1.5%. oil and gas is also holding up .40% ahead of the opec summit and cop-28 summit. the banks are up 15 basis points. overall, frank. downbeat start to trade this morning. >> thank you, julianna tatelbaum. >>> we are going to turn our attention to china. the country's central bank charting a new path with the world's second largest economy. the pboc expects to see the 5% growth this year. we have jp ong with more this morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. to be fair to china, it is possible they have a very high chance of hitting the 5% gdp target. so far, for the first ni

the ecb's decision to hand contracts out mid—tournament, and the way willey�*s been treated, has beenaptain michael vaughan: ifind it staggering i find it staggering that first and foremost, i did not agree with them announcing the contract negotiations had not been complete prior to them and should of kept it to the end of the tournament because he is a huge player. 29 contracts yet a player who is probably one of the only players performing in the world cup like david will eat. it staggering that they give up 29 contracts he had a player who is at the start of the 11th for the past three games doing well in the present world cup is not been given a contract and i feel for david willey and i completely understand ways made this decision today because i feel he is completely undervalued and he had a part of play in england going forward and is see in the t20 world cup, debatable but he is in the best 2022 players come absolutely and only an entry or two away from being the sounding players and i feel for him and i believe they got it wrong in terms of the contracts.- in terms of the c

and i do think the ecb got this wrong in terms of the contracts.h is against australia on saturday and aussie glenn maxwell will be missing because of concussion and bruising afterfalling off the back of a golf buggy on monday. australia say it's hoped he will be up to play later in the tournament. maxwell hit the fastest century in history earlier in the competition. in football, it has been a night for forget for manchester united, knocked out of the english football league cup by newcastle, who claimed just their second victory at old trafford since 1972. first half goals from miguel almiron and lewis hall, who scored his first for the club, were followed by a solo effort byjoe willock to help them win 3—0 and cruise into the finals. the loss comes after united lost 3—0 matches a city in the premier league, as well, piling the pressure on erik ten haag, whose side were booed off at the end of both halves. talking of nightmares, declan rice endured one on his return to west ham as his side was dumped out of the competition. white scored a goal of

so i feel for david willey and i do think the ecb got this wrong in terms of the contract.tch is against australia on saturday, and aussie all rounder glenn maxwell will be missing because of concussion and bruising after falling off the back of a golf buggy on monday. australia say it's hoped he will be able to play later in the tournament. maxwell hit the fastest century in world cup history earlier in the tournament. in football, it's been a night to forget for manchester united — they've been knocked out of the english football league cup by newcastle — who claimed just their second victory at old trafford since 1972... first half goals from substitute miguel almiron and lewis hall — who scored his first for the club — were followed up by a solo effort from joe willock to help newcastle win 3—0.. and cruise into the quarterfinals. this loss comes just three days after united lost 3—0 at home to manchester city in the premier league as well, piling the pressure on boss erik ten hag — who's side were booed off at the end of both halves. talking of nightmares, declan rice

economy at a time when it is worrying the boj, ecb and federal reserve?will the bielby respond? at the same time, how will the physical government respond when more and more people are demanding higher and higher wages? a tight labor market is the story around the world, as is the geopolitics. here in the u.k., prime minister rishi sunak has taken what many see as a gamble i bringing back former premier david cameron as foreign secretary in an extraordinary cabinet reshuffle. the move threatens to split the conservative party and could dog him all the way to the next election. let's bring in adam. david cameron, a man of many controversies. why is he concerning so many members of parliament? adam: good morning. he is concerning parliament because he has come back into government at one of the key offices, foreign secretary, one of the great offices of state. he's got a lot of baggage. he was the prime minister who walked out of outing street singing a little bit after he resigned at the end of the brexit referendum that he lost. he called the referendum o

the ecb is in a similar situation. they may be concerned that inflation is too quiet, but the data is telling them that time is running out for them to address it because pretty soon the problem will be solved for them because growth will be so weak that everything will slow down. rishaad: very quickly, we had that dismal 30 year option. what was behind it? some said that icbc could have been part of this. mark: it certainly adds to the sentiment, but fed speakers definitely upended the market as well. rishaad: mark, always a pleasure. let's get into this icbc story because it was a ransomware attack hitting the u.s. unit. sources say the suspect is lockbit, a cyber gang which is suspected of targeting boeing, ion, and britain's royal mail. stephen engle joins us from shanghai. this is a developing story, and how is it developing now? stephen: you just alluded to some of the ramifications of it. it could have been a catalyst for why they had that poor treasury option on 30 year bonds up thursday. again, as mark said, i

we had the ecb minister open to further rate hikes. more from our chief rates correspondent garfield reynolds. really watching the developments over what happened in europe given that it is a very holiday themed trading on account of the u.s. markets be enclosed. how impact full in the longer-term will that be when it comes to concerns over more borrowing as that economy slows? garfield: europe is -- you are facing some of the same issues that the u.s. government bonds are facing. you have this balance between high yields, the potential that central banks have stopped raising interest rates, but also increased issuance, and at a time when central banks have turned into net sellers of government bonds instead of net buyers. all of that makes for a situation where bonds are very attractive because of those high yields. the potential reward of those high yields comes with this greater array of risks. this is no longer the 30 year secular bull market where you can just buy bonds assuming that yields will continue to march lower. now you ar

i think they want to quiet some of that. >> a little more stark when it comes to the ecb with the mandate on inflation and the fact they fight, because of that, almost have to tolerate more domestic weakness in the economies. you have that message that's similar to what maybe the fed is going to voice when it next meets. on the other hand, dough don't have the same economic resilience in terms of their economies. >> no. and it does feel like they're willing to tolerate more, as you say, because of that single mandate. they're not at the 2% level. it's come down. like a 15-year low. >> even though many people feel as if maybe disinflationary forces are pretty strong in europe. we'll see how that goes. >>> we're about two hours into trading. let's go post to post with bob pisani for what's moving. >> a flattish open but a spectacular november. we're heading into a -- one of the best months we've seen in a number of years. i was joking earlier. i was at an island in the caribbean and a lot of people were spending but still worried. people are still spending in the united states. if you look

that is central to where the ecb goes from here.peaking of the ecb, this is where the yields stand ahead of the inflation data. the ten-year btb at 4.16%. ten-year trade in france at 4.2%. here is what we know, the french november was well down from october and below expectations. this comes a day after spanish cpi eased. the numbers are due at the 11:00 cet this morning. >>> turning to u.s. bond markets. we are looking at the best month in 40 years. not a lot of movement in the treasury curve. 30-year trading at 4.5%. two-year at 4.64%. >>> as for the stock market, we are looking to end the strong month of november on the high stateside with the dow at 175 points higher at this stage. nasdaq out performed through november and looking to add 35 points with the s&p looking to edge up 6 or 7 points. >>> abb has raised the long-term financial target and seeing revenue growth between 5% and 7%. the company said it is aiming for a small acquisition next year. it has been mostly positive with the stock today. up 1.8%. recovering from the

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