the fed would admit that.nk they caught up effectively, so you give them credit for acknowledging the mistake and being pretty aggressive. i think you want to make sure that chairman powell's desire not to have a legacy of causing or contributing to long-term inflation doesn't cause him to make the opposite mistake. keep rates too high for too long. i think the market expectation is the middle of next year were july for beginnings of easing. i think the economy will likely demand in earlier move. i don't think of the fed, or at least this fed as a particularly political institution, think they are trying to do the right thing. lizzy: you can watch the full interview with bill ackerman in full on the david rubenstein show, peer-to-peer conversations. the episode debuts on december the sixth next wednesday. amazon is rolling out a workplace chatbot called amazon q. it's designed to help corporate customer search for information, write code and business metrics. the company's cloud computing division is adding ge

isn't the market offsides from the fed? the fed is saying 50 basis points cuts next year. the market is telling you 100 basis points, scott. what are the implications of that into the calculus could it just be that, you know this is a temporary pause and the fed is back to hiking again because the economy is so strong, and then we're back in the same spot that we were and if you're not paying attention to that, if it's all clear, let's all go sing -- >> from 9.1% to 3.2% in cpi in a year so you're going to tell me it will go back up to 9 >> stephanie, i didn't say it's going back up to 9 the question is, is the market disconnected from the fed? >> i think, first off, anybody who is predicting anything with 100% certainty is a fool i hope i don't sound -- >> there are times the fed has been disconnected from reality >> shelter is catching down to market rents and continues to do so i know a lot of people, including the fed, are focused on core and super core, that's absolutely silly if you get a two handle on headline cpi, which is probably likely in the next few months, it

to do the fed's work. good place. >> the fed chief is probably happy that bond yields are higher? >> yes. >> he's quite content with that? >> he likes the fact the market is not fighting with him anymore. >> we'll have you stick around as we get ready now for the decision from the fed, widely thought there will be no change. widely thought that, well, the door might be left open. let's go to steve. >> reporter: unchanged federal reserve leaving the interest rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5%. fed on hold first time since early 2022. the fed is still determining the extent of additional policy firming suggesting there's still a hiking bias in the statement among the committee members. the committee saying it remains atentative to the inflation risk, likely from the previous statement. the economy was updated a bit. saying now i

noticed an explosion in social media of it lies about fed now. it is a precursor so a c bdc is going to allow the federal reserve to steal your money and take things up. when you deal this fake news you're partially tempted to ignore it. then you see it's the number one, two, three trending thing on facebook. getting 17 fact checker calls i want to give you an opportunity, are these narratives true question is fed a precursor that will allow the federal reserve to take group money and stop you from buying guns or have access to medical procedures like abortion or anything like that is this part of a nefarious master plan? >> the fed now is a payments products. currently now you say offers a payment to be made. it gets transferred. if there is some time between when the transaction is initiated it's cleared and settled and the money is done. that could be two days. that could be done in one day. it could be done in two hours or two seconds. that is the only thing you are arguing about on a payment system is how fast the payments clear and settled.

the fed plays a balancing act.hey want to suggest that the disinflationary trend is becoming more entrenched but they don't want to declare victory yet for fear of pulling forward rate cut expectations which turn is using financial conditions and that is the way price action is following through today. it is premature and i would expect that the moves we are seeing today will be versed in upcoming sessions. >> the moves we are seeing is not just in the bond or stock market by the foreign exchange as well. the bloomberg dollar in text falling 1%, biggest drop since january 6 this year. 11 months and change. as we think about this from of the idea that maybe the fed will have to push back on easing financial conditions off the expectation that we are done here and nothing more to see. do you expect will still messaging that they are open to anything at this point even if the data continually shows softness? does that lose them credibility by extension? laura: though they are data-dependent in terms of their current g

the fed has done its job. i think the transition will be from inflation to growth and what in fact the impact is of this extreme and extraordinary move the fed is undertaking to take fed funds over 5% and i think those lags are going to start to kick in and the reason the fed funds futures market is pricing in almost 100 basis points of cuts in 2024 is because those cuts are going to be fueled by a recession and not by inflation. if anything, we're going to get disinflation into deflation, in my opinion. sonali: peter, double down on the idea of where you think fed funds are going. where do you think the end next year given all these expectations for cuts? peter: again, i think people are focused on inflation as the reason why the fed will cut. it's this idea they can engineer a soft landing and inflation is done so they will be able to ease rates back to the neutral rate and i just don't think it works that way. the reflexivity will be more severe. if you have a recession, which is our base case, but that bas

lisa: fed put was traditionally that, if there was any weakness, the fed had already blanched to stimulate the economy. you are saying the bar to cut rates has been lowered materially over the last couple of weeks. is that what i'm hearing from you? ben: no. it has been lower material over the last few months. six months ago, the fed could not cut rates. now, it can. if you are a bullish investor like me, that is your insurance policy for their not being a soft landing and for me getting the economy completely wrong. i now have the fed standing behind me -- they were not standing behind me six month ago. jonathan: cut back to what? a lot of people in fixed income or having that debate and cannot figure it out. where are you in that debate? ben: inflation is not where it needs to be yet. obviously, if the economy cools, it will come down a bit faster. i do not think the world is completely changed. a lot of the structural drivers of that, whether it is debts, demographics, technology, they have not gone anywhere. i do not completely discount it. jonathan: ben laidler of etoro. appreciate it

the fed just kind of stayed on a path. and now they are probably going to look at what we have and say, we are done. i don't know if they will actually say that, but everybody will accept it in the markets that they will accept him. is good news bad news or bad news good news anymore? can you base your investment decisions on what the fed is going to do? do you have a period of calm where that does not matter? guy: mike, i appreciate that maybe i was a little verbose. that is a big admission from me. to your point, i think what we would agree on is that we have gone past the point where good news is bad news. the data is so hot the fed needs to do something about it. that phase is now firmly over. which basically means that the outlook here is either we get a soft landing, which is the good news, good news phase, or we get into the good news is -- sorry, the bad news is good news phase. i am getting confused now. i am kind of wondering where we are in that. is that the next thing that happens? the market, it does not reall

we begin with the big issue, the market versus the fed. >> listen to what the fed says. >> the powells. >> a slightly more amped a version of what he's been saying for a while. >> reiterating what he said all along. >> much more hawkish speech. >> danger being good but not definitive. >> they are focused on inflation. they are focused on the jobs data. >> they are nervous about declaring victory and then having to on declare victory -- undeclare victory. >> the market continues to disbelieve this higher for longer. >> right now nobody has any idea what the bond market is going to do. >> there's a lot of underlying tensions in the bond market. >> a good chance we will see a lot of volatility. >> the federal have much less of an influence on where rates go from here. unfortunately, that does not mean the quality is going to go away -- quantitative easing is going to go away. sonali: we look at the two-year yield. at march, 376. we have gone more than 60 or 70 basis points higher and flirting with 5% all year, including at the beginning of the year. we are back there now. you have seen a

the post-fed market rally. the central bank keeping rates unchanged for the second time in a row and upgrading its assessment of economic growth. stocks closing near their highs of the day. the nasdaq up almost 2%. the dow jumping 221 points. the s&p 500 gaining. for all the details from today's decision, let's bring in cnbc's steve liesman. steve, it's funny, because most people walked away from the press conference believing that the fed still left the door open to another hike and yet the markets are running away like that's not a possibility at all. >> yeah, i'm going to walk through, melissa, and you can tell me if you think i'm crazy at the end of this, why there was a dovish tilt to this thing. they left rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row. that range of 5.5%, that was as expected. but fed chair jay powell, i think he provided a modestly dovish outlook suggesting at least that that additional rate hike may not occur. and i say may not, advisedly. why he affirmed that the takeaway from the sta

on a fed day, it is a fed day under surveillance. lisa: secretary of state antony blinken will go back to israel later this week as concerns grow about a mounting death toll after dozens were reportedly killed at a gaza refugee camp. the is really military said the attack quote lemonade in many terrorists -- eliminated many terrorists. all i can say the fog of war, i just get this feeling what we don't know is much greater than what we do know. what we do see is incredible pain and destruction. tom: the last 24 hours everyone can agree has just been absolutely brutal, maybe the worst i have seen in my life. i go back and i think the prime minister addressed this yesterday, this new media, this new social is revolutionary for the prosecution of violence. it is in-your-face. we don't know what to do with that. lisa: at the same time we heard the head of jordan speaking with president biden which will be interesting to see how some of these back channel discussions and front channel discussions transpire. the deficit could top $2 trilli

fed, the occ. i guess i'm still hopeful there some space for states and state regulation in this debate. >> i think i'm probably a little more optimistic than julie, maybe misguidedly so. i think if the question goes to how do we make sure money is there, i think the fed is actually quite well-positioned to ensure that. we operate under this model today. we have a sponsor banking mouse wheel two nationally chartered banks and our deposits all sit in one of those two and they're all fdic insured. it gives our members compass that the most efficient system but it gives our members any think the broader banking system comfort that the suns will be there when they need to be there. >> yeah, and i kind of want to ask a broad question from your perspectives. when you think about the shortcomings of the payment system to use it as more of a technology problem that needs to be sold with more innovation, or is it more of a policy problem? which a seems to be we're leaning more towards the latter in this con

fed has achieved that stuffily restrictive rate that he's been using before to say when the fed has reached the right level of interest rates. ongoing progress, he says, to the 2% target, quote, is not assured. inflation is being brought down by the end of supply distortions and tighter monetary policy, but he says it's unclear how much more the fed will be able to achieve and the economy will achieve from lowering inflation from the supply side improvements and the implication is that it may have to rely more on monetary policy. to assume, he says, if the fed no longer faces the challenge of zero lower bound -- this is longer-term part of the speech -- and the fed will consider when it does its review of its overall strategy whether the pre-pandemic low interest rates can return or whether we're in a regime of higher rates more permanently maybe more emphasis, guys, on the possibility of a rate hike in these remarks and the idea that the fed is not confident that they're on the road to a 2% inflation. >> steve, stay right there with us with the dow down almost 200 points right now,

the fed is in a good place. >> the fed chief is probably happy that bond yields are higher? >> yes. >> he's quite content with that? >> he likes the fact the market is not fighting with him anymore. >> we'll have you stick around as we get ready now for the decision from the fed, widely thought there will be no change. widely thought that, well, the door might be left open. let's go to steve. >> reporter: unchanged federal reserve leaving the interest rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5%. fed on hold first time since early 2022. the fed is still determining the extent of additional policy firming suggesting there's still a hiking bias in the statement among the committee members. the committee saying it remains atentative to the inflation risk, likely from the previous statement. the economy was updated a bit. saying now it grew at a strong pace in the third quarter, a solid pace in the previous statement. job gains were also upgraded a bit, saying they moderated in instead of slowed in the prior statement. the statement mentions tighter financial and credit conditions, adding the

what i have thought about why the fed will cut as soon as the fed is saying they would cut if there is a recession around, that could be one reason. we put the joint to 75 basis points against the market which is at 75 basis points by the end of next december. it is a wide divide. . . the widest divide might be markets and strategists versus the fed itself. the fed at least on two occasions has said they are not cutting anytime soon. if we go into the bloomberg terminal and take a look at a chart that shows the two yield and the 10 year yield, here's the two yield. the uptrend is in place. the 10 year yield, the uptrend is in place. that you your yield, firmly from a number of technical chart perspectives like it is going to continue to go higher. the 10 year yield, maybe less so. if the two yield does hold that it would suggest the fed is less likely to cut. we have lots of strategist talking about big cuts to the fed funds rate next year. matt: you have morgan stanley as well which thinks the fed will cut to two spot 375%. between two and a quarter and 250 at the end of 2025. ubs loo

so if you can have access to a fed the cut you cannot access to the fed's payment rails. but seems to me that we ought to first and foremost follow the law and if we want the law to change we ought to ask congress to change it. >> do you think we should change the law? >> no, i'm fe with it t way it is. >> dan, wt about you? i don't think the law is fine the way it is. some of you in the room have seen this but i've ge so far is dfting legislation that a think congresshould consider in this regard to expand the universe of firms that have access to the settlement rails. we oft talk about payment rails. we really should distinguish between clearing rails and settlement rails. serve master accounts julie i actually right. these are the settlement rails. you can't operationally send and receive money in u.s. payment networks without it. but the fact we focus on settlement rails has really been a question going back to your question when it safety and soundness who do we trust with our best first and lt form of money? and that's an institutional question about the tes of firm

for cuts from the fed. the problem is how tight our financial conditions really and is the job over for the fed? we caught up with former new york fed president bill dudley, who thinks the markets and powell could be done. bill: he feels confident the fed has done a lot, policy is restrictive. he think by talking to the markets in a supportive way, stocks rally and that's loosening financial conditions. sonali: joining us now. let's start with you on the notion that bill dudley had brought forward, because what he is trying to say is the more the market, the fed, thinks it's over, the harder it is for the fed, which is trying to tightening financial conditions more, so how does this play out through the rest of the year and into 2024? >> good afternoon. great to be here. thank you. i think recently there's been a huge amount of focus on financial conditions tightening, but what we have to remember is while that is important and chair powell will introduce that in the fomc statement, ultimately what will dri

fed policy in the data. was technicals and we have to see if positioning is key now. alix: do you think along end has -- the long end has peaked? priya: it's hard to say what is the absolute peak. while we got to this almost flat yield curve around 5% and the fact it was driven by real rates, the fact that the equity market started to get spooked by it, that was telling me we were near peeking. when the short stay cold at a technical levels -- we had to go back to 2007 to look at these technical levels. when they were breaking it was hard to have a lot of conviction. the last week gives me some conviction that we have peaked here. the question is are we going to be in a 4.5% to 5% range? guy: what you think the answer is to that? priya: i think the data right now suggests we are in a soft landing. markets are forward-looking. they are supposed to be forward-looking. i think the academy it -- economy is heading lower. these long and variable lags, they are playing out now. is that the next week or the next th

i think it's smart to feel like the fed wants to be done, the fed is probably done unless something weird. not going to look to cut very soon to me the long end has to absorb whatever supply it is, but other than that, i think we cantake it as the fed doesn't want to really undercut this economy in a determined way >> i'll see you on "closing bell." >>> up next, big moves in crypto we have big ves cdemoinru we're going to discuss both. [alarm clock ringing] (♪♪) [van engine] (♪♪) [card reader chimes] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [kitchen bell dings] [inaudible chatter] [keyboard clicking] (♪♪) [card reader chimes] (♪♪) sofi is helping me get my money right to achieve my ambitions. with sofi checking and savings, i pay no account fees, and earn a competitive apy. (♪♪) power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom

fought -- fed thought.bor market really in control of this. isn't that the ultimate deciding factor. all points to a strong labor market. if you believe the policy is restrictive enough you've got to believe the current policy gets us down to 2% and the labor market will have to soften but it's not. >> i think that's the issue. it's a little bit cyclical. if you have a strong labor market and presumably consumer spending is going to continue to be ok and if it is ok profitability and jobs will be ok as well. that is one of the indicators and normally is a lagging indicator. if you look at it for whether or not you are slowing down or the economy is starting to slow down or not. a current indicator. really keeping the services sector up quite a lot. services facing the manufacturing employment number today, it wasn't as weak as some of the other data within. when you look at that number that was for the second leg in the rally of the bond market was really the expectation for maybe weaker economic environmen

the same fed, that was powell back then. that's the outer limits of the fed pause. i think it's something to keep in mind. we're already beyond the limits of a soft landing and one more data point i would throw out is we've seen a 0.5% rise in the unemployment rate. unemployment rising because of multiple jobholders. that's never happened in a soft landing. we've never seen a 0.5% rise. clearly the economy is decelerating softly. i think you can make a case either way. >> certainly never a moment you're going to get an all-clear. warren, great to talk to you. thanks so much. >> happy thanksgiving. >> up next, tracking the biggest movers. kristina is standing by with those. >> there's a theme a by the just doesn't cut it. two names might be saying otherwise. details next. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive. clinically shown to heal & moisturize dry, sensitive skin. gold bond. when you're wearing the world's coziest slippers, your comf

say, where is the fed the fed is in mutual at the moment, and it will take a bunch to make it to hike again, but not much more. the fed is going to need to see progress on inflation. we may get that progress next tuesday, especially on the headline that keeps is at bay again what it wants to sew is continued progress towards inflation. they are not declaring victory we remain on notice that the fed could hike again or launch a series of hikes as i have said over time if inflation does not come under e control it is not going to settle in for three 3% or 3.5% inflation period end of story. >> the always enjoyable, sometimes disagreeable steve huffman. thank you very much. appreciate you going with us >> thank you. >> as you watch what mr. powell had to say today in that bond auction. thank you so much for being here we will see you soon our question of the day. what is the biggest risk to stocks right now rates, inflation, valuations, or geopolitics? you can head to @cnbc cash flows closing bell >>> duolingo is trading at the highest level since 2021 after hiking the full year revenue

be ahead of he fed's rate cuts.f you have a coordinated global central bank effort to pause rates and then move rates lower that will help keep our yields contained and certainpy support stocks and bonds. >> to that point, piece, part of the report that talks about a recipe for a rally. we talked about bond yields also. also the labor market need as gold goldilocks chapter, for the most part the november-december rally averaged 3 1/2%. maybe it has begun but this labor market, goldilocks moment, what is that? how would you, what would be entailed in a goldilocks moment for labor because it feels like we may be on the rest miss of labor really falling apart? >> yeah, no it is a fair call-out. we think we're starting to see early indication of a labor market that is cooling. to your point, we see things like job openings move lower, quits rates move lower. people are not voluntarily quitting their job as often they did. maybe they don't feel secure they can find a new place of employment. those are early indications t

fed speak is back. we have fed i's share of supervision -- vice chair of supervision. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari and the key event, 3:30 pm, atlanta president raphael bostic. jonathan: take a break. i do not think we need it today. wasn't the message received from chairman powell? lisa: was it message received? did he want to deduce some equity? tom: come on. he is on the phone to fidelity or schwab. can you put me on with apple, please? lisa: maybe they can start saying, the market received at the wrong way and we could see some reaction. jonathan: i got a call from rachel yesterday. tom: rachel who? jonathan: the manager. she said, are you sure you want to come back? i said, and miss this? the chief economist at city global now. steve, good morning. what are you in the team looking for on payrolls later? >> it is about half of what it was last month. throw out the covid period shut down and the reopening. in the last year and a half or so, the range on unemployment data, even after the revisions, has been from 105,000 to 904,000 on these monthly numbers.

fed, the occ. so i guess i'm still hopeful at there's some space for states and state regulation in this debate. >> i think i'm probably a little bit more optimistic than julie. maybe misguidedly so. and i think if the question goes to, how do we make sure that monies there, i think, i think the fed is actually quite well positioned to ensure that. we operate under this model today, you know? we have responsive banking models, so we have two nationally chartered banks, and our deposits all sit in one of those two, and they are, they're all fds insured. they're occ regulated, and it gives, it certainly gives our members, it's not the most efficient system, but it certainly giveour members, and i think the broader banking system, comfort that those funds will be there when they need to be there. >> yeah, and i kind of want to ask a broad question from, from your perspective. when you think about the, the shortcomings of the payment system, do you see it as more of a techlogy problem that needs to be

where is the fed on this? does the fed need to signal that it is comfortable with current market pricing? does it need to confirm current market pricing? at what point should we see this divergence closing? liz: the fed, history shows they don't like to surprise the market. you know, we have asked this before. if the market goes so crazy on cuts, which they are starting to -- if they are not happy with that at all -- we had the fireside -- we have the fireside chat with pebble on friday. you would think there would be some kind of pushback to say there is a lot of risk that if inflation does not come down,- i mean, powell has said we are not talking about cuts. just the math of doing it is -- like waller was saying, it is a thing. but i don't know. i'm waiting to see if powell pushes back. another telling thing of waller yesterday is he said financial conditions might have eased recently, which is kind of the focus, but relative to a few months ago, they are tighter. that should not leave the market thinking w

and the fed may be at peak rates.omberg. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. >> are -- i agree with the prime minister, but i don't think we will need as much oil in the future. if you want to reach her climate targets, oil and gas consumption needs to decline significantly. i hope the companies are part of the solution, they are partners. shery: opec-plus members remained deadlocked over saudi proposal to make deeper cuts to oil output. some predicting they will have to postpone the already delayed thursday meeting. su keena

he maintained the fact that 2% inflation is the fed target. we have three more inflation reports coming up before the next meeting. how do you see that impacting the markets? >> the fed in their september sep projected 3.7% by the end of the year. it is 3.7% today. they are ahead of target the way powell sees it. they just are in a loosening b bias. i don't see any more rate hikes. he basically broadcast that unless something weird happens. >> david, i have to ask we are seeing yields on bonds decline root right now. you believe we are set up for a santa claus rally. does that stop in december and pauses? >> that's going to happen. the santa claus rally started in early october and hamas and higher rates hijacked that. now rates are gathering equil equilibrium. we have the santa claus rally powered by fundamentals which carried the market forward. as we go into next year, we have falling yields. santa claus, i believe. >> falling rates will lead to a santa claus rally and believes the fed is done hiking rates. great to see you. too bad about t

the fed doesn't want that problem. so therefore, they'll let the banks keep doing what they're doing. >> what do you do? you keep pushing it off in hopes that rates come down and the economy stays strong enough? >> you hope as rates come down, right, as the economy will start picking back up, if you can push it off two or three years you should be okay. that's what happened in 2008. 2008-2009, if banks had been forced to sell, they were going to go below their capital requirements. the fed didn't force them to sell and banks kept pushing it off and then the economy and lower rates save them. everybody is hoping the same thing is going to happen again. >> do you think people are making too much of an apocalypse coming in real estate and commercial real estate or no? you've heard that for the last six months at least. >> i think they are. just simply because there's event that will force a bank to sell other than the fed and the fed is not doing that. if you're not forced to sell you're fine. look at your house. if i sai

the fed are on pause here.ve demonstrated that they continue to wait to be data-dependent. but what is very clear is that financial conditions have tightened over the course of the last six months. we should not forget we had a banking crisis in the u.s. in. march that rolled through, created a tightening, perhaps night is tied as people expected but you now have the 10-year yield having traveled through 5%. that is the first time since 2007. two year very very stable. you've seen u.s.high yields at 9.5% in the mortgage rate at 8%. very clearly financial circumstances have tightened. that being -- said, the fetter on watch. there is a likelihood of another 25% hike. i think the fed are definitely not about to cut. haslinda: so, rish, as much as the markets are cheering some sort of euphoria, there is the sense that the fed is not done. take a look at the economy. this is a very strong economy and it grows in excess of 3% over the last four quarters,wages and consumption very strong. can the fed really afford no

and the fed is pretty much done.ith the fed also said, the second thing here is that their overall economic assessment of the economy is strong and not just solid. clearly, there is a bit more work to be done. so to conclude that the fed is done, and evidently, the next step will be a cut, just getting preston at the futures curve is a bit premature. haslinda: you did the job for the fed. you had yields surging in excess of 5%. now back to 4.65%. i guess the big question is how much work did those yields do for the fed to ascertain when it will jumping again and tighten? aninda: that is the point. it has to be tight. and how long does it have to be tight for labor markets to weaken sufficiently and for core inflation to come up sufficiently to a level that the fed is comfortable with? we are not there yet. we get the jobs report and there was an expectation that there may be a payback from the strong number we saw last month. the ism manufacturing print was very weak. dropped lower than the market expected, dropped t

the fed.nwind like this, they will say maybe they have to put the fed back in the game itself. the other thing i wanted to mention is that we are technically at the start of what should be the best six months of the year. so we rule see it doesn't feel like a normal year but i'm not sure if any year has felt like a normal year. haidi: you look at modeling around expectations, seasonality and so much of that get thrown up in the air because we are dealing with the endgame when it comes to the end stage of this tightening cycle and all of the volatility that comes with it. we are seeing stocks and bonds rising on that continued hope that the fed tightening cycle is over. some of those comments from fed chair powell clearly are what investors are choosing to see at the moment. we see australian kiwi use mirroring that the client and treasuries. we will back in singapore at the barclays asia forum, speaking with the bank ceo. ♪ ing, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world.

we had fed speak suggesting maybe the fed is comfortably positioned now.ve a weak treasury auction at

our 10 year, you'll get some fed speak in the fed minutes. after the close, earnings from nvidia.leaderships going to continue under the theme of cumulative 2024. spx from late 19. we don't have the scale, of the inflation is killing us. jonathan: it's just that cafe we go to. tom: seven dollar tip. jonathan: go to a diner. it's $60 easy. i'm with you. absolutely nuts. tom: i'm looking at the nasdaq and this is important going to alex webb he only comes on if we do the nasdaq. a moonshot going out to near record high off of the pandemic level. from the bottom here failure. jonathan: this is where people say easy money has been made. nothing about this in the last few years, nothing about it whatsoever. tom: as we talk to -- talked to rishi earlier. let's focus on nvidia now. how do you identify what nvidia's business is. >> is a cliche. everyone has been looking what is the company that does this, the reseller raiders that fuel the data centers, aws, amazon are running all of the ai options and trying to sell to their customers in the cloud with a huge amount of benefit now. tom:

matt: next week we see a slew of fed speakers resume. are they going to talk about how traits are doing their jobs and we are doing a passive tightening -- and we are seeing a passive tightening? is that the way forward for the fed the next six months to a year? andrea: a lot of the tightening has had its bite with consumers with how we are spending. to see that unwind in three days , i think that will be the chorus out of many different fed speakers. the long and variable lags are still long and variable. we have to wait and see in the months to come the impact they have had for the next quarter or next six months. even these generations we are seeing in the market, it is a traitor -- a trader's market and that will cause a pause around how people are spending. matt: thank you so much for joining us. really appreciate your insight. up next, leon kalvaria joins us to discuss the state of m&a. it has been slow. expectations for maybe a brighter 2024. this is bloomberg. ♪ (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30

. >>> fed speak has been a big driver of the market action this week we heard from the fed chair powell yesterday and in the last hour the san francisco fed president joined kelly and steve on "the exchange" and steve is back with highlights >> tyler, yeah, the san francisco fed president saying in our exclusive interview that fed policy is in, quote, a good place a phrase used by powell when he's happy. he hasn't used that phrase, though daly said it's restrictive enough to reduce demand and bring down inflation but poised if necessary to hike again if inflation does not fall. she stopped short of calling policy, quote, sufficiently restrictive and put quotes because that's another phrase powell has used where the fed has suggested it would stop hiking >> it is far too early to declare victory. i think that's why, you know, there's a lot of demand for and we stop ready if the inflation data stop if the inflation data continues to perform well and ready to raise again if we need to pull the reigns back on the economy even more >> daly's comments similar but not as hawkish as jay powell,

the fed did not put recession back in.t would be hard to see how you would do that if you look at the activity we've seen recently which is not really indicative of a recession in the near term. in terms how to think about translation into rate hikes. i think it's too early to be doing that. the main thing we don't know how persistent will be. you can see how volatile it is. different kinds of news will affect the level of rates. any kind of estimate that is precise would hang out there and have a great chance of looking wrong very quickly. i think what we can say is that financial conditions have clearly tightened and you can see that in the rates that consumers and households and businesses are paying now. over time that will have an effect. we don't know how persistent that will be. it will be tough how to translate that i would be comfortable in how many rate hikes that is. >> i would like to follow up. what makes you confident of the tighter financial conditions above growth and qt, minor banking crisis have not thus

fed holding steady for the second meeting there.s next as we get into the start of trading, the morning after the fed we are saying equity futures across the region advancing following the rally in u.s. stocks and bonds. hopes of the rate hikes from the fed may though overcome what we are saying on export japan, australia, and hong kong all rising. the trading in sydney in a few minutes, this is bloomberg. ♪ so... i know you and george were struggling with the possibility of having to move. how's that going? we found a way to make bathing safer with a kohler walk-in bath. a kohler walk-in bath provides a secure, spa-like bathing experience in the comfort of your own home. a kohler walk-in bath has one of the lowest step-ins of any walk-in bath for easy entry and exit. it features textured surfaces, convenient handrails for more stability, and a wide door for easier mobility. kohler® walk-in baths include two hydrotherapies— whirlpool jets and our patented bubblemassage to help soothe sore muscles in your feet, legs, and back. a kohl

the fed's going to panic.nds of things you said at the top of the segment, oh, my god deflation is worse than inflation. we can't do anything about it, we hit zero bound, baba. none of that is true. how much of the what the federal reserve said over last three years been true? none. this will not be you true either. this is big boom for economy. will not act kel rate a recession or trigger depression. it will accelerate the boom we're in now. charles: don, much love the conversations. appreciate it. >> me too. charles: citing the three ps, powell, productivity and payrolls. we have neil dutta. can we check off all three? can i check them off or not quite yet? >> i mean i think we're there. i have mean the door is definitely cracked open, charles, now for the fed to start thinking about rate cuts. there is a lot of disinflation in the pipeline. it does feel a little bit like last year. remember this time last year the market was pricing in cuts but we ultimately ended up hiking again? charles: right. >> for me

a lot of intensity on the fed and what the fed is saying.e move, there was a message of overall indecision. we heard it from austan goolsbee talking about how the inflation fight is not over, also about how tight fed policy might play into the overall market. where do you look when the fed is not clear? what other central banks are saying. we saw the bank of england teasing the possibility of rate cuts by 2024. the big one was the rba which decided to hike rates for the first time after four meetings on pause. we are seeing the aussie falling against the u.s. dollar by about 1% in this process. the two year yield and 10 year -- 10-year yield not moving too much in either direction. so the fed not so much in the central banks, eh. we are looking at earnings. barclays is saying that this period of weakness might be over. data dog is a cloud software service provider and talking about the enthusiasm for more cloud services and getting better results from tripadvisor despite a negative couple of months for broader tourisms stocks and industry. f

but the fed history tells us that the fed has rarely, if ever, orchestrated a soft landing.m just not certain what's changed this time. yes, yields are leading equities, clearly that's helped to support equity risk here. we don't think that's sustainable given the trajectory of fundamentals that we are seeing, especially a lot of the high-frequency data. >> there is no doubt. even a slowdown is compatible with the idea that ultimately you get a softish landing i suppose. it's a matter of whether it gets worse from there. the credit markets seem not to be sniffing any of this out. does that give you comfort? >> i agree with you, they have tightened. markets are sniffing it out. we look in certain structure credit markets in particular where we happen to traffic, we think that a slowdown is being priced in. it's a good risk-adjusted return there. and, you know, when we look at relative value from bonds to equities, for example, we don't see it. an s&p dividend yield 1.5% versus real ten-year yields well above 2%, it doesn't square. and forward equity returns have been very, ve

and then, the fed wins the battle.be inclined to turn around and say, why don't i bet on two year germany and say european economy, which the market knows is underperforming, they are going to talk higher for longer for as long as they want but they are going to have to cut rates next year? that seems like a sure bet to me than preempting today when the fed is going to turn when we've spent all your thinking americans have not run out of this money that is pent up, these savings. they are still outspending money, there is still a very tight labor market, the economy is still growing spectacularly compared to the rest of us. you will make money in twos, you might not sleep a few nights. kriti: speaking of sleeping, let's go back to the long end of the curve, because it makes sense the idea that you could bet on europe and that is saying quite a bit, that betting on europe is a more sure thing than betting on the u.s. right now. talk to us about the long end. if you are talking to us about these refund announcements, doe

is right, the market or the fed. will the fed feel comfortable with the market pricing in cuts? not so sure about that, carl it's a discussion we're going to continue to have don't forget to watch the documentary tonight "inside track" at 8:00 p.m. on cnbc. >> we can't wait, sara let's get to "the half." >>> all right, carl, thanks. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, the big question, whether you're a bull or a bear, are we close to an all-clear for stocks? wall debate and discuss that with the investment committee. joining me for the hour today bryn talkington, steve weis, josh brown, bill baruch. let's check the markets, giving a little bit back. a run for stocks, 139 for the dow, s&p giving back about ten, a fifth after percent, the nasdaq a little lower, 447 the yield on the ten year is 4.47 that's the question we've been entertaining the last couple of days in light of this rally, are we all clear can we say that yet? >> it's a good question. i think, though, it's impo

every time the fed funds exceed the 2-year bond, the fed always ends up cutting, and i like to pivot back to 2000 i think that's an interesting parallel because ofthe dollar, technology, inflation. there's a lot of similarities. in 2000, scott, the fed raised rates three times by 100 basis points total in january of '01, they cut rates twice by a hundred i think feds have every intention of keeping the rates higher for longer. they simply don't know what they don't know they signaled that they've gone too far. putting pressure downward is showing massive recoveries in the banks. you mentioned the russell 2000 regional banks are up 2 basis points just today and that's on the fed doing nothing. that's on the expectation that there could be a more moderate and easing environmental with a lending and yield curve. >> do you think it's time, john, to give up on the bear case, or does it still have some breath left to it >> i gave up on the bear case a long time ago. you asked if we were going to test the lows six, eight, nine months ago i told you know. i think the market bottomed last yea

and the fed has never actually really ever, you know, engineered a soft landing. you know, i would say so probablyisticly this time could be the first you have to be realistic about these things to me i'm a longer term investor we have a lot of things to be doing in this country to grow domestically there's a lot of opportunities for people to be investing longer term. if the fed can really nip inflation in the bud, they should do it because that's going to be good for long-term growth that's what i'm focused on people can hate on me now but long-term i expect to get some thank-you notes. >> have a great holiday. it's good to see you. >> you, too. enjoy, everybody. >> thanks, jeff. >>> thanksgiving week, big week for the nfl and the league appears to be maintaining its dominance as investments in streaming ramp up. we have that story next. >>> watching shares of lowe's in the red today. they cut sales and earnings outlook saying the company felt, quote, greater than expected pullback by consumers on big ticket purchases with gold bond... you can age on your own te

a pleasure to have you here on fed day as always. >> yes, judge, good to be back for fed day. not a lot of -- josh is right, not a lot of news today. almost a direct repeat of the last meeting, you know, carefully, said that very early on, and repeated it. i think the market likes carefully. so stocks rallying, bonds rallying too. down now about 25 basis points. but also, you know, he said they're not even talking about cutting interest rates. they're not even having a discussion about it. and yet the same time he's not confident that they're sufficiently restrictive. so the door was left pretty much wide open for future flexibility at meetings. and, you know, yield curve is completely flat. so, it is kind of in the same mode, i think, that the fed's tone was, jay powell's tone was, and that's the reason why you can rally after this brutal sell-off in a long rate over the past two, three months. >> i'm glad you went there. because the -- the words may have been nearly identical, the statement certainly as you said was nearly identical. what is not identical to the last meeting

fed.e have to remember that the japanese yen just today found a little bit of breathing room after some of the top officials said they might intervene if they start to see more one-sided direction. keep in mind the yen at that level once again volatile but also casting uncertainty with regard to japanese markets. that's what happened in the month of prior, but in the first day of november, we saw a bit of a reprieve. take a look at the models. they continue to feed into it with no clarity, it seems inside. hopefully that clears up in the next couple of weeks. that's going to be a wait and see thing from china to hong kong. back to you. >> thank you very much. jp ong live in singapore. we turn it over to london and our julianna tatelbaum. good morning. >> frank, good morning. we're kicking things off in the month of november on mixed footing. stocks higher as investors digest earnings and embrace for the policy decision. much like you've seen in asia and the u.s., we're coming off a brutal