liz ann sonders, chief investment strategist at charles schwab. great to have you back with us. should we listen to the fed speak? should we look at the bond market? where do we look for cues on the direction of equities? liz ann: i think at this point in the cycle the bond market and what longer-term yields to was more of a short-term driver of equities than fed speak, for comments were things like the probability adjustments around the december meeting and thereafter. i still think what matters is what currently the market has built into expectations, a pivot to rate cuts starting by midyear this year. if you were to extrapolate the current set of conditions into the first half of next year, that simply does not justify a pivot to rate cuts. it may perfectly justify the fed staying in pause mode but not cuts. that is where they are still -- there is still a bit of a disconnect. it is not so much yields as a driver up and down. part of today is that you saw volatility come down in the treasury market. that may be as much of a key as a continued d

we had the conversation request liz ann sonders.magnificent seven" were down 41%. >> wow. charles: of course you have people come on saying certain segments like oil used to be like 25% of market. now it is 3% of the market. let's get to some of your ideas because i love when you share these with us. s&p, short s&p right now. >> we were long 4100. we scaling into longs. we got 4300, we started exiting. now towards 4400 which became short, more of a short-term trade. we were on track for nine straight green days. we need some sort of a pullback. the technicals are strong. charles: 4450 is your stop? >> right. charles: i'm thinking, 4400 looks large, right? to me i think we go to 4400, we're going straight to 4600 in the blink of an eye. that is your next big test. >> right. our subscribers were up on the short already. we started initiating this week. today markets turned lower. charles: crude oil, crude oil a month ago, the hamas situation, israeli war, middle east crisis everyone is talking 100-dollar wti. it has come down a lot. y

we have liz ann sonders with us to discuss. >> good morning, frank. >> after the jay powell comments, moving higher. are you surprised? >> no, because the stock market is keying off longer-term yields. expectation was in line with what the fed did yesterday. i think it is not so much on the short end that we're seeing a driver in the equity market. i think it is the long end. it was october 19th with the ten-year yield which reached 5%. now we are down at $4.75 and driven by the funding announcement and dovish comments from powell yesterday. i think yields are continuing to be in the driver's seat. >> that is interesting. you thought it was dovish com commentary. >> the expectation was for a pause. the assumption going in would be it was a hawkish pause. he didn't close the door to another rate hike, but i think cemented the idea that a continuing in pause mode makes sense as they assess the tightening they have done with the long lag and impact on the labor market. >> your take on the dovish pause, what is your word of the day? >> done? i said that with a question mark at the end of

liz ann sonders at charles schwab joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. >> we are at this inflection point in the midst of the slowdown. >> pretty significant headwinds. >> seeing those cracks in the consumer. >> consumers are under pressure. >> there while it under pressure. >> the data we have gotten over the last few weeks have been on the softer side. >> the economy is decelerating. >> there has been this slide in oil prices. >> i don't think you want to take all the probability off the chance the fed has more work to do. >> the fed needs to give the market on its back foot. >> faces a tricky balancing act. >> a soft landing is incredibly difficult to pull off. >> people are going to get nervous about the state of the economy. >> we still do not know if it is a soft landing or grated downturn. >> are we going to

so what's in store for the new year let's bring in liz ann sonders now. good to see you.come back >> thank you, scott. happy thanksgiving. >> yes, same to you. i'm sorry i missed you as well at impact. but -- >> yeah, ditto >> do it next year. >> that nasty covid thing. >> it is good to have you back >> thank you >> i'm looking at the notes. you say that it doesn't yet look like a durable new bull market that says to me, you're not a believer in what is happening in the market right now, in terms of this rally and why not? >> well, first of all, the -- as we know, this year has been dominated by the magnificent seven. if you look under the surface, equal weight, 493, small caps, i think the leadership there or lack thereof is reflective of the uncertainties we talk about, policy and where the economy is. it is just in cap weighted indexes. they're biased on the upside there was lots of analysis done by us and everybody else at the point where we hit the one-year mark in the move from the s&p low now 14 months ago, 13 months ago. and the absence of participation by small c

liz ann, thank you liz ann sonders from charles schwab david, the s&p goes negative still sfleng -- strengthcommunication services. >> although i notice apple shares, speaking of the largest market caps still down from highs of the morning. >> the impact of formula 1 for the strip where sara is right now, and many of the names that also operate casinos on that strip. stay with us hi, my name is damion clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all of these plans include a healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items like vitamins, pain relievers, first-aid supplies and more. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. other benefits on these plans include free rides to and from your medical a

i am fascinated with an always open question to you and liz ann sonders. at schwab doing with their fixed income money? kathy: what we see among the majority of the clients's they have been staying very short on duration and starting to get some confidence that they can move further out. very popular along the cd's. not really dipping their toes into low-quality but at these yields any bonds, investment grade corporate is looking attractive and they are getting more confident about stretching out duration. tom: the pros are worried about liquidity. should our viewers and listeners be worried about liquidity and full faith and credit? kathy: i do not think for the average investor the liquidity issue is going to be a big one. i think for traders, for people like us navigating the markets for our clients, it is an issue. but i also do not think it is a critical issue in the market. lisa: you are the one person i was most looking forward to speaking to today. i really want to get your understanding of what happened with the failed auction and whether you give