morgan stanley's mike wilson said, it's in light of the macro data. >> no secret, mike has been bearish for a while now, and i have been mostly in his camp. we don't know. last week was an easy week, and it was an easy week because of how quickly bond yields fell off, so it was going to bring a lot of people in that were short or sitting on cash, and at the time it was a great market trade. joe and i talked about it. now it's a little tougher, because you had to reset yields and yields areback up today but the market is holding it. >> why are we rallying? because the economy is slowing but not crashing? >> a combination of events. it was a perfect storm positively for markets to rally. you had a less hawkish, and i wouldn't say it was a dovish -- >> no, less hawkish. >> right, and it was expected, and powell delivered on what people expected, and then you had inflation numbers and et cetera, but not weak enough to say the economy is definitively heading to recession. >> mike wilson, for example, is a good point on this. what he says as a decided negative, right, the bears see this as ne

stanley's economists, their economic team, are much more sanguine on their view of things than mike wilson is on the strategy side, right? i am looking at their numbers, what i saw today, their numbers for the end of next year, their fed's fund rate. 2.275%. they get an uptick, and change in gdp is 1.4%. they are still looking for growth and not a recession of any magnitude. the core pc inflation is 2.4%. their economists have a much more outlook on the world than their strategist? >> by the way, they are not alone. it really looks for the fall in core inflation into the 2s. if inflation falls into the twos, and even if we don't go into a recession, one can begin to argue that the fed needs to start cutting rates, and if they do that could support the multiple and maybe that's what supports the earnings picture. i think there's a bit more bullish skew to 2024, and that makes me wonder, because, scott, as we talked about the other day, we expected a hard landing and now everybody is expecting a soft landing for 2024. what happens next? >> nonetheless, recession is not likely before the end

mike wilson has used that repeatedly, the price is wrong. the bears have been hanging on a couple of major things, deficit too high, recession odds growing, when maybe it just comes back to what people have said is more powerful than anything. the fed is either your friend or the fed is your foe. for the better part of 18 months, the fed has been your foe. the fed is done, more than likelike ly. if it can be, it is, right? >> the bond market did the fed's job mostly in october and especially the last couple weeks in october, scott. everything my good friend jenny said, i agree with except for the market stuff and the price stuff. but listen to what she said. stability, breadth, things getting better. but then the stock market is a market of stocks. we're investing, we're not buying the market. we're buying companies. and i think this week was monumental. monumental for what happened with respect to small mid-cap stocks and the russell. that's a really, really big deal. i think the risk trade might be the regionals because they still have fun

you had some words this morning on x for mike wilson, arguing that things actually changed last week.> look, mike said he wants to keep an open mind. i don't know. he's been a dominant force for this bear market for much of the market, but he wants to keep an open mind, but at the same time, it's like last week didn't occur. we see analysts don't understand what i think is a true sea change, when you get the sellers are done, interest rates go down, fed out of the picture for a while, and then the next thing you know, we have a body issuance that makes it so you can't shoot against the bonds and you have the largest short position bonds in history. what happens is you coalesce with shorts in stocks, because they have been pretty easy for a while. shorts in bonds, capitulating. nothing to shoot against. that's kind of -- i know that's not a near about the consumer doing better. it's not a theory about the magnificent seven. it's a theory which just says you can buy, and sometimes that's more powerful than looking at individual groups, and it's time to just say, you know what? there's n

everybody was onboard the mike wilson bandwagon of hard landing. we had 250 billion come out of the equity market, cycle into the bond market. the bond market ends up having a disastrous year. the stock market, if you picked the right stocks, had an epic year. as we enter 2024, we have a little less, fewer dollars at risk, because the setup is more evenly balanced. we'll see plenty of opportunities over the course of the year. our book will continue to be positioned around those tech companies that are beneficiaries of this new secular growth trend around augmented intelligence, and we're going to continue to short those industries that are being disrupted by those things. and i think that spread of 16 to 6% we've seen over the last decade will continue in 2024. >> so you think growth or tech will outperform as dramatically it did this year because of those trends y just cited? as i said, scott, there's no way at it outperforms at the level it did this year. this was the most hioric outperformance, a catch-up to '22. remember, '22 was the most sign

you might've missed this because mike wilson says you should miss it. back in bull market mode.ng to be much more benign with a bond market. let's go with joe. >> thank you for taking my call. mr. cramer, always the first vacation is the biggest thing that i get from you when i watch her show. >> trading apple 17 times. and the deputy says i do. what's up? >> yes. i have never denied that. go ahead. >> with four, giving up a lot to their employees will just hurt them or help them? let's not forget, ford has the number one selling vehicle, the f-150. >> that's why i am sticking with this. you know, lockable stocks were hurt. based on everything that we have. it continues to hold ford. i said to ford very clearly this is the last straw and it will break my back if it does not work out. jim in colorado. hey, jim. >> hey, jim. >> i'm thinking about getting invested in a medical device company. i wanted to know your thoughts on them. one of them is meg tronics. because of the hard dividends. >> they could be bottoming. i do think they are better run right now than they usually would.

clear i think we're stuck in this big range, so we were talking about this a couple weeks ago and mike wilson put something out i agree with mike. if we get to 4400, 4500, you start to fade. >> he has 3900 for this year do you agree with him? >> not necessarily that low, but when you bump up against the ceiling, things are fully valued and it's not universal hold on, let me finish for one sec. i'll bet you i've trimmed or sold a few things in the portfolio. nothing moves in tandem. i have stocks in the portfolio kickly after the insane rally yesterday up, like, 17% yesterday, up another 10% -- >> that's what harvey is saying over at wells. he says it, don't be greedy. >> and i was thinking yesterday, i was freaking out saying, am i being a pig? what do they say, hogs get slaughtered? am i being a pig not to take money off the table when something is up 17% in my portfolio or 12% in one day. i'm struggling with that because i don't want to fight the momentum i can sell high and turn around and sell low everything is dislocated this year i think that's what you need to do in the market >> jenny

mike wilson, not believing in a late-year rally. the bears will be bears, the bulls will be bulls and at some point we'll settle the debate. at what point, i have no idea. do you? >> there's something there for everyone, we have an inflationary print next week. we have cpi and ppi. the trend has been inflation is moderating. i am still more bullish on stocks. treasury yields are at 5%, two year. i think the 60/40 is not dead. there's opportunity there but i'm still more bullish on stocks. >> speaking of well-seasoned investors, citadel's ken griffin crushed it last year. i'm sure they're having another good year this year, he says that you have to invest in china. weiss, he says you have to be, quote, watching and investing in china to tap in. there's more innovation outside the u.s. relative to 50 years ago. we've had debates with you about china uninvestable. do you just avoid that region? >> yes. >> forever? >> look -- be. >> forever? >> let's put this in perspective. he's sitting in hong kong while making the statement. i think

. >> i can't help but think that you're thinking about a gentleman named mike wilson. i don't want to say that i'm -- i don't know that, but that's where i'm guessing. >> well, you know, last year, this week, he came out with a -- we were at 3,991 on the s&p. his base target was 3,900 on the s&p. david, that's not right. >> okay. >> we're 4,400. we could sit here and discuss all we want what this man is saying, and i'm happy to do that. >> we pointed out many times, first of all, he was right for a good portion of the downturn, mike wilson, the chief strategist at morgan stanley, and we gave him a lot of air, a lot of kudos for that. but we also talked about how hard it is to be right twice, to get the second call right is even more difficult. >> okay. >> it's hard enough to get one good call. >> i was going over with my team, with jeff marks and ben before i came over here, and of all the things they felt i shouldn't talk about, well, jeff felt, he works with me on the club, why bring it up? the only reason i bring it up is because once again, he's made what i think i

know what's lurking in 2024, i just know from history, and we were just talking, guy and i, andto mike wilson. and he thinks what investors get wrong is that the pause in an inflationary environment is very different. when you start -- when you start lowering. and we still have inflation, even though these inflation readings are coming down, they're still up year over year and especially after the year that we had in 2022. >> well, what is the one thing i'm most afraid of, which is, we have not addressed this issue of out of control spending in the united states. by the government. and so, we saw that phenomenon of huge expected, right, qra, that was just mind-boggling. then the next one, the cadence was better, and so, bonds further out the curve did better. it wouldn't be in any way surprising to see that be a real issue coming up next quarter. >> if you think there s an overhang in terms of bond issuance, imagine what is to come. >> right. >> that's my fear. >> all right, well, stock market rally may be on borrowed time. our next guest sees a rebound ahead in the benchmark ten-year yield.

you pick up a recent note from mike wilson at morgan stanley. this looks like a bear market rally to me. we've been hearing that same sort of thing and the bears tell the same story. at what point does the story play out? i'm not suggesting that the bears are wrong, but the market keeps going up for the most part. when are they wrong? >> you're seeing manufacturing pmi go up for three month nass a r row. you could be seeing a bottom and you're seeing construction for manufacturing at twice the levels of 2019. scott, if you want me to talk about when we would add to stocks go overweight from being fully invested to diversified. >> yes. >> i would like to see capitalization in the market, and i would like to see the vix at 30 and a panic and that would be a great opportunity to actually overweight stock and the fundamentals -- >> what's going to cause that capitulation moment for you? >> well, that's the key question. is it an issue with earnings and fundamentals or the prior discussion with the geopolitical or just a turn in sentiment linked to t

we know mike wilson this is bear market rally. you wouldn't expect him to say anything else.eel kashkari, you remember neel kashkari was a dove. this guy is really a hawk. not convinced, maybe there is more rate hikes to come. if you already have self-doesn't, self-worry and you add this kind of stuff to it, then guess what? it is going to happen but there is something else going on here beside the emotional stuff. the so-called smart money they're loaded to the gills in negative bets on stocks and bonds. globally, globally this number is huge. i think it is $134 billion against, these are short stocks around the world, around the world the highest number since 2018. then more specifically here in the united states, huge, still a huge bet. $52 billion worth of u.s. stocks are short, short! those are the experts. guess what though? we love to squeeze the experts. by the way it is not just stocks. look at this chart. so every kind of fund out there, the 30 year, the 10-year, the five-year note, the 20 year, the two-year note, all of them, all of them are short. i mean the hedge

mike wilson reiterating, saying we are in a bear market rally. the kospi, after we saw the big surge of close to 60% -- 6% yesterday. dollar getting firmer, and commodities still catching a slight bid overall. yield is a mixed picture across asia but treasuries we are seeing yields pick up again, stabilizing and the asia session come up to the two year yield close to 5% again. let's get more on market action. things were looking oversold in the s&p. is this just a bear market rally? >> it could well be that we will have very choppy trading conditions between now and probably thanksgiving in the u.s.. a lot of fed speakers and a lot of data coming out. the fed is setting a higher bar for them to do anything, they would rather be on hold for a long period, but they know certain bits of data will push the market one way or another and they would like to rein that back in a get every happy with the idea that particularly rate cuts are not coming a long time. we saw kashkari given interview overnight, a little on the hawkish side, hoping to push back

wef talk about mike wilson and we don't talk about savita this person has a piece today which has more thought involved in it about why we can get to 5,000. i know if you're not bank of america research you might not be able to get it. a lot of it is about sentiment admittedly a lot of it is just, look, people are not where they have to be, not where they need to be positioned which is the broader market i found it to be so commonsensical that i say, you know what? i can see another run. >> see another run >> yeah. different stocks this time, because there's not enough short base anymore on the magnificent 7. >> instead of the stocks i want to talk about. >> our new show, the magnificent seven. >> the theme music has been written for 50 years. >> you call the show seven stocks and that's it you talk only about the seven. by the way, i did the market caps on them because i knew it might come up. 11.8 tril i don't know in market cap, apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, nvidia, tesla. >> like half of the u.s. economy basically. >> they're nation states their balance sheets are unbelievabl

> world diabetes day today. 4,470, jim what do the bulls need to do to make a statement >> have mike wilsonrspective at this very moment. i think what the bulls have to do, even if rates don't do anything more, hold these levels a lot of times what's happened is when we have these opening, the heat-seeking missile sellers come in and say, listen, i finally got what i wanted. it's very rare that an up opening has produced closings as high as the opening. i want people to understand, when you have it like this, it's quick sale you'll come in and say, oh, why did i buy it that high let's be careful and not come in and buy something from the nasdaq up 1.8% and just instead say i missed it, i missed it i wasn't there for it and now i have to wait because we're overbooked. >> got some fed speak on the docket no more auctions, the things that sort of undid the progress last week. victim rose of the journal says the challenge for the fed will be adjusting the language to reflect the obvious. the fed is on hold. >> look, he's the fed whisperer. i would point out that, if you saw nat gas go down, tha

. >> yeah, look, i was listening to brad today, and he directly blames mike wilson for creating a shroudi don't know mike personally. i hear he's a super guy. that's the word on him. super. >> super? >> super. i'll take him out to dinner at del frisco's in rockefeller plaza if he wants to do that. >> that's a choice. that's a go-to? del frisco's rockefeller center? >> for my wife's birthday, we're going there and then to "saturday night live," and i'm golden. this was the first birthday present i had done where she didn't say, oh, uh, thank you. >> good, that's nice. >> do you have the receipt? i have that. you bought that for me last year. that was a bad one this time. i forgot! looked nice. what are you doing? >> i'm looking at thing that are moving. >> all right. talk to me later. i think that this apple negative calls remind me of when you -- let's say you get something wrong. you can either dig your heels in and say, continue to hold it, the max, you can't get it. or you can just say, you know, the view of morgan stanley, which is the serious, still, the ultimate a.i. app, is one th

>> it's funny i want to conflate this with mike wilson. he had a note that came out last thursday talking about, can the magnificent seven basically follow up? the magnificent seven, if it doesn't have ai, if amazon doesn't produce, if nvidia obviously doesn't produce, which i think it will tomorrow night, i come back and i say, you know, ai is how you're going to get these companies to the next level, and if whoever doesn't have ai or use ai is not going to go higher the only one that i would exempt is that apple -- they have a new cycle. maybe they can transcend it, but ai or bust for next year, but if they produce ai, you got to know you're in the magnificent seven. >> would you say the same thing about autonomous >> no. >> can we lose autonomous if we don't lose ai? >> we can lose autonomous. i feel so bad about that it's exhilarating. in san francisco, the idea that instead of a lot of drunk drivers, and tired drivers, you've got drivers that are really on the case, and then kyle volk, to all the cities and it was a massive -- there w

but anybody who's short this market, anyone who's adopting mike wilson's view, is going to be -- it'soing to be caught trying to figure out what happened to their year, because the shorts had their way until this week. >> well, part of it is earnings, and earnings have been a little bit bumpy, but mostly okay, and it feels like ceos are attuned to the macroeconomic risk, and they're feeling a little more cautious, but they're not talking about recession, and there are some really good stories out there, like starbucks. >> of course. take -- yes, i'm seeing them today, and i have them on tonight, and it was an excellent story, u.s. domestic was fantastic. you watch football. i know you watch the -- >> the bengals only. >> that's okay. but the refs, this year, a lot of times -- this year, they're really terrible, and there's a lot of them, upon further review. upon further review, meta was good because ads came back according to pinterest. upon further review, google was good because youtube turned out to be very strong. upon further review, amazon at $117 was a major miss, so you have

jonathan: mike wilson of morgan stanley may describe this as a bear market rally. things like the fed put us back. i can give you plenty of reasons why it might be. is that a sign how quickly the sentiment has turn? lisa: it's giving life to the stream on wall street that the fed will come in with significant rate cuts which will turbocharge a rally. there is a big divide between those who see the bond rally as a positive for risk assets because it is a de-volitilization. i what point are we going to worry about it? jonathan: what was that word again? yields are a little bit higher by a single basis point. lisa is going to run through all of the fed speak in all of the debt issuance we get. lisa: we will be getting 64 billion with 1030 year notes. we have jay powell and then michael bar. tom: michael bar is going to be really important on regional banks. this is in the zeitgeist, are they going to change the rules? i don't even understand what they're going to change but everyone in commercial banking will listen to the speech. jonathan: you just don't read the fed

mike wilson, morgan stanley, bearish all year. what do you say to all of those guys?sible to reject anything in this weird environment. even if you got inflation right, sticky on the way down, fed hiking more at the beginning of the year, still up 14% on the s&p. let's talk about how the disconnect between financial assets and what happens in the fundamentals. it is very rare to have two very negative years in the equity market following each other. it can happen, but absent a calamity, not likely to happen. those are known risks. the fact that we have tightening, the loan officer survey shows further tightening going on for six quarters. that is known. all the problems out there are known. in a weird way it is a tailwind because sentiment is quite negative still. it is not that they are wrong. it makes intellectual sense. i feel at home with that. but we have to invest client money in the real world and not just talk about it. if you are underweight equities this year because you figured a fed-induced massive recession and unemployment come you didn't make the year.

mike wilson still saying this.ike a bear market value rather than the start of a sustained upswing in the market. lisa: our yields going down the thing, if it really comes with a certain degree of economic pain? has that been priced in? these are all questions that we cannot answer. people are ignoring all the bad stuff, trying to look at all the nuts and bolts and trying to sell it. jonathan: was it because the data was good? was it because of the supply? lisa: we asked everybody who came on, why our yields going up so much? we have no idea. it is like baking a cake but not understanding what the potential measurements are. jonathan: you just come up with this one. stick with it. if you are just joining us, yields up. last week, they were down more than 26 basis points. down about 60 basis points so. shifting lower off the back of the meeting last week. the treasury would be funding announcement was not as bad as people may be feared. lisa: if you think this is a change, i find it hard to believe, whether this is

mike wilson had scared everybody at the start of the year, so everybody was in crash position, and theregional banking crisis, despite conflicts in ukraine and israel, despite all of these other challenges. >> so you're bullish? >> i would say that we've been constructive and optimist all year. our net exposures, we started the year very bullish relative toy to where prices were in the market. we were priced for a hard landing, so we were 93% net long, andrew. >> you're through the worst of it? >> well, the question on the table now is does the fed over bake the cake, right? may of 2000, let me take you back. >> what was the ten-year in may of 2000? for me, 3 to 4 is still -- >> is a no-brainer. >> but it's still a new normal. we used to be 5 or 6. why don't we go back -- >> i'm saying that because we don't need to. i mean, the fact of the matter is that so long as we have full employment and so long as we have stable inflation at or near the target, we're going to be in this lower range, but the fact of the matter is, joe, as you remember, we did great between 2001 and 2007 with a muc

prosecutors promise to present a host of new video, ballistics and dna evidence on wilson's mike althoughlin armstrong allegedly commit this murder because there isn't one. >> reporter: her attorneys argue she was never seen in person or on video at the crime scene and say the prosecution's evidence is not strong enough to convict her beyond a reasonable doubt. they also claim she wasn't attempting to flee arrest when she took off for costa rica. >> you're going to hear she was content traveling to far off locations that intrigued her at the drop of a hat, on a moment's notice. >> reporter: just a few weeks ahead of the trial while in custody, armstrong was captured on video wearing those black and white prison pants, trying to flee from police after a doctor's appointment. authorities say she ran about a mile, trying to jump over this fence before she was captured again. cameras will no longer be allowed in court until closing arguments as testimony is now under way. but if convicted kaitlin armstrong faces 99 years without parole, so essentially a life sentence, guys. >> trevor, thank y

tuesday morning, reid wilson discusses election day 2023 in the washington post's paul kane talks about challenges facing mike johnson including a looming government funding deadline and disagreements on israel and ukraine. jacob wherefrom the council of foreign relations talks about homeland security threats facing the u.s. on the border and escalating tensions. to the threat of homegrown terrorism. c-span's washington journal, join the conversation at 7:00 eastern on c-span, c-span now or online at c-span.org. >> on tuesday the supreme court hears oral arguments in the united states versus 202-748-8001 - as to whether people with protective orders can ben possession of a gun on sp three, c-span now or online at c-span.org. c-span is unfiltered view of government funded by these television companies and more including cox. >> -- syndrome is rare but friends do not have to be. when you are connected. you are not alone. caulk support c-span is a public service along with these television providers, giving you a front row seat to democracy. >> georgia representative marjorie taylor green and rich mccormick intr

mike's subs. >> be a sub above this night matchup takes center stage . >> russell wilson leads broncos country as seven mornings. let's look at some traffic right now. richmond-san rafael bridge. it is week six of a singular. yep. it's still going on and we don't know when it's going to be fixed. and now there's a four mile backup approaching the richmond-san rafael bridge toll plaza. okay, let's see what our drive times are like right now. you can see that it is eight minutes from highway four to walnut creek, walnut tracy to dublin at 43 minutes. it's been pretty busy. also in the bay bridge, this morning, but we do not have the traffic closures yet. that comes tomorrow where they close one lane in each direction. so just be aware before the commute drew. >> hey, yeah, coming tomorrow, we have some showers in the forecast, but today we're dry starting out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. the tam cam, it is partly sunny out there. we'll find brighter skies as the afternoon goes on. it's also a cooler afternoon today with temperatures in the 60s. but we bring back the storm impact scale on tues