you will see a similar dynamic to what we saw post gfc.in 2011, 2012 from a real estate perspective turned out fantastic. we are in a similar dynamic now. not saying that you could throw a dart and make money, but it is very much a buyers market. i would add to that, i think investors are starting to look for where the puck is going, not where it has been. office and retail has taken a lot of allocations over the last 15 years. that is not where the puck is going. demographically-driven sectors with a lot of more institutional interest, including health care, real estate, student housing, data centers, logistics, a number of other sectors. i would say those sectors are tremendously well positioned because you have demand tailwinds, supply tailwinds in terms of constraints, and a buyers market because of where interest rates are. katie: i want to talk about how you access those opportunities. you mention opportunities in both the debt and equity. what situation would make more sense for an equity position, versus taking one on the debt side

we have been talking about consolidation since the gfc.his is one of those points i want to laugh about in a few years time from now, but i actually think as we look at the barriers to entry in this space, if we look about the costs of running our businesses, the scale we need to operate at, and i think the multiples we are starting to see coming down, i think this could be an interesting time for consolidation. francine: but why has it been a long time coming? is it regulation, or was there no appetite? robyn: i think when cash is free, it softens that. i think the moment where people need to deploy at scale in liquid markets has been something that has softened. if you look at trends, the trend has been impassive, it has been in private equity. if you think about the assets that no longer sit in the public domain, that has been our theme over the last 10 years. i think when private equity does not have quite as much cash, when that raising is harder, when lending is harder, these opportunities for niche spaces and expertise to come about

if you go back to pre-gfc in 2007, european banks had a great run. the market cap with bnp was almost bigger than jpmorgan chase you look at the last 15 years and it has gone one way across the atlantic maybe that regulation would help the europeans. the bigger issue for them and we have seen this data in last few days, the eurozone is in recession or close to recession. sweden is in recession q2 than q3 were low. german data looks weak industrial production, so on and so on. that cyclical headwind for the economy hein europe which is weaker than the u.s., could be a problem. >> nick, you brought ten key charts to track for us we will not have time to get through all of tempehem. chart number three can earnings takeover the heavy lifting for multiple expansion 2023 was all about growth and inflation. this year is going to be about earnings will they disappoint or won't they >> exactly if you look at global equities, the last 12 months with a 15% return which has come from multiple expansion earnings, delivered earnings not the forward expected, but t

. >> you had this period post gfc in 2009 heading into the pandemic, about 11 years. the stock averaged 16 times earnings. there were people making the case it was expensive, by the way, during that period of time. obviously, in hindsight we know it wasn't, because they delivered far in excess of anything we thought any, quote, unquote, hardware company could do when they deemphasized hardware sales and tell you about services. okay, that was then. here is now. the post-covid period, apple is averaging 29 times earnings, if you look at every quarter. it all of a sudden got rerated after covid and has never reverted back. in fact, there was one quarter traded at 41 times earnings, december of 2020. so, all of a sudden, we've decided that apple's average p/e should be -- i'm saying we, the market, should be double what it was in the previous period. why is that? i think the answer is consistency of profits. apple's profit margins have been remarkably consistent in this last four-year period almost no matter what you threw at the company, problems with china, problems wi

require them to read anything in other words, simply a money formula afternoon is cranked out in to the gfcdless. right? how are you going to keep them tampering with this black box that you have a thing? i'm not to have a black box. i'm going to have a very visible i've written out and as you know, i know that's a great detail. what i would do will calculate this, but then there's going be someone who'll come in, the people that dislike and say, but we could do it a little bit better by doing it this way or that way, of course. how would you keep them from doing it? well, in the only way in which you can do it, a democratic society, by establishing both a written, an unwritten and the unwritten is just as important as a written and unwritten constitution on the part of the public at large and of the view that this is not what people in government ought to be doing, that they're sacred to measure. well, if you want a monotonous profession for it in a theological sense. oh, but unfair criticism, professor friedman say, is a bad doctor because people won't actually take his medicine mean that

require them to read anything in other words, simply a money formula afternoon is cranked out in to the gfcgardless. right? how are you going to keep them tampering with this black box that you have a thing? i'm not to have a black box. i'm going to have a very visible i've written out and as you know, i know that's a great detail. what i would do will calculate this, but then there's going be someone who'll come in, the people that dislike and say, but we could do it a little bit better by doing it this way or that way, of course. how would you keep them from doing it? well, in the only way in which you can do it, a democratic society, by establishing both a written, an unwritten and the unwritten is just as important as a written and unwritten constitution on the part of the public at large and of the view that this is not what people in government ought to be doing, that they're sacred to measure. well, if you want a monotonous profession for it in a theological sense. oh, but unfair criticism, professor friedman say, is a bad doctor because people won't actually take his medicine mean t

this is not gfc, this is not pandemic, not taper tantrum land. cadence of these rate cuts, we really need to recalibrate. do we think we have recalibrated sufficiently, and what speed and scale do you think we will get 2024, 2025? lindsey: i think the market is still ahead of itself. the fed is clear they are willing to have a conversation about rate cuts, but the support or initiating those is not unilateral. it has to come with a prerequisite that inflation continues back down to a sustained 2% level. the data right now does not support that. the notion that the fed would be willing to engage in rate cuts in the first quarter very much seems unjustified. looking at the data, with ruth accelerating beyond earlier expectations, and as we just talked about, a solid consumer, the expectation for even a second quarter cut may be too early to price in. the fed sitting on the sidelines until the second half of the year, with a very tempered pace of reduction. the market is anticipating 25 basis points a month. i think it will be more about 25 basis po

we think that's very different than what we had post gfc and prepandemic. >> in the last two months,ow for the market, the average stock, the equal weight is up 15%, and you had cyclical leadership which is also something people had been wanting to see. where does it take you in the way of what types of stocks should work, domestic international, small, large? >> i think the most important thing that changed from the previous cycle is the interest rate environment. we are ultimately speaking about rate cuts, but it's a normalization of interest rates and it's still positive real rates. really the most fundamental thing that changed is that move from the lower zero bound and those negative real rates. ultimately we think the ten-year settles in in a range between three and 4%, and that's a range where we historically we have seen equal performance between value and growth and international and the u.s. that's different than the environment we were in where interest rates were sub 3% for a decade plus. i think that's one of the biggest things on my wish list for 2024 is that investors

and if you're just using post-gfc pre-covid rules to do your analysis, you're missing the boat.did a better job of explaining p\es than interest rates. and i think that's exactly what happened last year. gdp doesn't always do a great job of driving p\es, but we actually found when we were building the model, i didn't have gdp in there to begin with, but people kept asking me, plug in this number, that number. they want to know if we stress it for certain gdp ranges, what would the multiple be? i threw it in and it actually helped the model a little bit, and we realized that last year, you were actually seeing the fact that gdp, kind of going to steve's conversation, the fact that it was recovering and coming in ahead of expectations, that was really helping support the multiple, as well. if you go back and look at history, you learn a lot of stuff that people missed last year. >> that's interesting. >> and it's an election year. you don't give a gcrap. >> i care, i care -- >> not yet, you haven't decided yet. i just read the notes, you don't -- we have five different pieces of a