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i was des - disappointed that the ecb criticism.id not call out lord botham. chair of the first class cricket county, his words carry weight. the ecb didn't see fit to come out and say that this is wrong. i think that not only did they stay quiet, they resisted calls from stakeholders and those concerned about mr botham's comments and chose to stay silent. �* , ., comments and chose to stay silent. ~ , ., ., silent. as for the governing bod , silent. as for the governing body. the _ silent. as for the governing body, the chairman - silent. as for the governing body, the chairman of- silent. as for the governing body, the chairman of the i silent. as for the governing i body, the chairman of the ecb said while he disagreed with lord botham and told him, everyone was entitled to their opinion. he said he stood very much by the governing body's actions when it came to responding to icec report in this quest to make it the most inclusive sport in the country. finally, world athletics plans to introduce a new trial for measuring long jum

i was disappointed that the ecb did not call out lord botham.s cricket county, his words carry weight. the ecb didn't see fit to come out and say that this is wrong. i think that not only did they stay quiet, they resisted calls from stakeholders and those concerned about mr botham's comments and chose to stay silent. as for the governing body, the chairman of the ecb said while he disagreed with lord botham and told him so, everyone was entitled to their opinion. he said he stood very much by the governing body's actions when it came to responding to the icec report in this quest to make it the most inclusive sport in the country. world athletics is planning to introduce a new trial for measuring long jump. a take—off zone will be used instead of the traditional wooden board where a no—jump is called if the athlete's foot crosses the line. the jump will be measured from where the athlete's front foot takes off to where they land in the pit. the aim is to reduce the amount of no—jumps. a third of all attempts at the 2023 world championships in b

look, the ecb at the moment. — bank? look, the ecb at the moment, they _ bank?k? look, the ecb at the moment, they are very - bank? look, the ecb at the i moment, they are very clearly focused on a wage growth and inflation. we have seen the recent inflation data, there was an acceleration of underlying momentum. the earliest they can cut isjune, we think. people are betting on the ability of april the 15th orjune almost a given but april is far too soon. we think there will be little change. in terms of services inflation, we are forecasting 4% by and march. for percent service inflation is far too high for the ecb to begin thinking about cutting rates.— cutting rates. andrze' szczepaniak, i cutting rates. andrze' szczepaniak, thank i cutting rates. andrzej i szczepaniak, thank you cutting rates. andrzej - szczepaniak, thank you very much indeed. thousands of ride—hailing and delivery workers in the us and the uk went on strike on valentine's day, calling for higher pay and other changes to their working conditions. in america, uberand lyft drivers planned a da

i think the ecb should not be too far behind the fed.and, quite frankly. guy: yields have ticked up, as have equity markets. does that carry on? chris: i do not think it carries on for long. the main trend in yields is now downwards, if you look at 10 year bonds. we have passed the hump of rate hikes. we are looking to rate cuts. the economy is generally slowing in the west, or not growing, if you look at the eurozone and the u.k. i think what we see is a bit of a countertrend move as chair powell has pushed back on rate cuts and the markets priced a few of the cuts out. we have seen that same sort of trend in 10 year bond yields. that is still very short. a lot of people, very short bonds. i think there is more downside potential here. the one thing i am quite focused on, quite concerned about, is what is going to happen to liquidity as we get later in the first half of this year. that may create an issue for bonds as it may create an issue for equity. i think all eyes on liquidity as well as the macro. the liquidity picture is interest

there is a lag affect and the ecb is watching.d into our guidance, so no surprises expected. tom: there is a new ceo, peter bostic, later this year. what changes can we expect? >> as i say, he is not new to the company. i have worked with peter for many years. he has been driving our digital footprint in the years he was working before and that is what i expect. we look forward to welcoming him soon and seeing what he has. tom: before we let you go, the conflict in ukraine continues. to what extent is that a drag in economies in which you operate? >> we are sad about the situation in ukraine and geopolitical tensions. this is something we cannot ignore. we have seen the economy holding up well. there are ways to mitigate impacts. sanctions have impact on our economies. if you look at the growth rate, the impact has not been a source of tension. in other words, we hope geopolitical tensions will ease. tom: stefan door fleur, appreciate your time. the cfo of course of that business. plenty more, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

speaking to ecb officials as markets push back expectations.y is next, this is berg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets today and i am anna edwards.

this is something that christine lagarde specifically referred to at last ecb press conference.hey are waiting to see the seasonal wage negotiations before they make a key decision on interest rates. >>> portugal's public debt fell to 98.7% from last year which is over 112% in 2022. the first time below 100% since 2009. according to the country's finance minister, debt should be on track to fall further provided the next government avoids a budget deficit. portugal heads to the polls on march 10th. i'm happy to say fernando medina is joining us and silvia joins me as well. i'm going to start with the overall story for portugal. it is a positive one when you think about where portugal was ten years ago. it has been a great success story. upgraded by moody's on good-to-medium term growth process and economic reforms. solid banking sector. the story is positive. you managed to do this in the environment where many challenges have faced the eurozone, the pandemic and energy crisis and the aid packages for ukraine. how have you managed to bring down the debt, but at the same time kee

and also fed, fed needing to cut possibly at the end of the less than ecb a lot of the great ones. also noting by chart, there's greater sensitivity for america. even if they cut at the same time, say june, they may end up cutting less it may be different for them because of that, people are again starting to pile in a little more to short euro trade or to long dollar trade. but be careful, that double mean they won't sell off. >> the trade is back super quick one. we have just in the last couple of days seen stabilization come through on chinese equities. i know we're heading into the lunar new year does it matter that they're stabilizing or is that a separate world that people are not focused on right now >> it doesn't matter too much pessimism, i understand why, obviously, but i find it a bit too much it reminds me of last year when everybody was buller in china. it turned o it the other way around maybe this time they're come back in the second half of the year. >> we'll have to bring you back in the second half. >> with pleasure. >> thank you so much for joining me on the show

markets pricing and for cuts from the bank of england versus six from the fed and the ecb.hat is down to the unique characteristics of inflation in the u.k. and the relative stickiness and resilience of this u.k. economy as well. just the outlier nature of the boe. whether that changes today will be something we are watching for. heavyweight interviews in the markets today show. bnp paribas cfo and the ceo of shell as well on the energy story. volvo cars as well. we will be speaking to executives there and the top newsmakers. that's coming up next on markets today. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> good morning from london.

yes, it may be good for the ecb policymaker looking for forward inflation signals.t is the sign of malaise and demand of the order books across the german economy with the decline we are seeing now where the shift away from the high energy cost industry that germany has seen is in play. it is favoring the economy u.s. as the u.s. where you have seen better manufacturing in europe and asia germany still seems to be losing out there and that weakness of price pressure is a symptom. >> chris, i have to ask about the market levels with the record high across european markets with the stoxx 600 surpassing the levels we saw back in january of 2022. the cac 40 at record level and dax almost at record level why is it companies are still not feeling some of the positivity and optimism even though at some point the optimism that we're seeing in the market should be filtering through to the real economy, shouldn't it >> it is we have been seeing some signs of that. we have seen loosened financial conditions start to feed through to higher financial services activity we have se

checking in on currencies given what we expect to hear from fed speakers and the ecb.uro-dollar, one 07. the pound 126. bitcoin is posting one of its best runs in a year, 48,000, as etf's are a driver for cryptocurrency. 48,000 on that cryptocurrency. brent crude is close to $82. we had comments from officials in iran suggesting that diplomacy is making progress when we think of the conflict in gaza. western leaders criticized donald's remarks on nato. he said he told a european leader he would abandon nato members to a russian invasion if they did not meet defense spending commitments. >> is got to pay up. they asked me that question, a president asked if we do not pay and are attacked by russia, will you protect us? i said it you are delinquent? he said yes. i would encourage them to do whatever they want. tom: i'm joined by rose madison. what have reactions been from trump? rose: he made these comments years ago and keeps ramping them up as it gets closer to the election. european leaders and officials are disputing his account. there were tensions between donald tr

this is what we are watching out for today, we will be hearing from the chief economist of the ecb asthat will be interesting, given what we are expecting and how markets are starting to price around the ecb. after that blowout nonfarm payrolls print that we got last friday, that will build out the picture on the jobs front. at 6:00 p.m. u.s., we will see the u.s. selling, $25 billion, 30 year treasury bonds after the 10 year treasury bond sale yesterday was well received by the markets. janet yellen will be speaking at a senate banking committee hearing on the financial stability in the annual report. we've heard her talking about the concerns around commercial real estate and the fact that regulators and the authorities are keeping a close eye on that. coming up, a look ahead to maersk fourth-quarter earnings, how is the global shipping giant adjusting to the situation in the red sea? a really crucial day for maersk to get a gauge of what is happening when it comes to shipping and freight rates as a result of the disruptions and the geopolitics of the red sea. we are going to discus

specifically with the ecb they are looking at wage inflation.c issue across all of it. they're watching the wage inflation. if that begins to get looser we will certainly perhaps cut in june but not earlier. i think an interesting perspective for the ecb, given the weakness of the german economy, is what do they do then? what will be the pace of the interest rate cutting cycle to 2025? if you look at the data coming out of germany, it is very weak industrial data this morning. i think there is a really good argument to say that euro-dollar needs to be soft over the next 24 months to allow germany to recover. i think there's a far greater chance of euro-dollar being 1.04 112 instead of 1.15 and above. i think the strength of the u.s. economy could justify that. lisa: does that give the ecb more cover to go first and further because of that weakness?i'm talking about rate cuts. jane: the data has to be there, so it is dependent on the wage data from europe. if that is softer, yes they can cut sooner.if it is not, i think that they will wait. it ra

>> german banks, which are involved in this business, are under the supervision of the ecb , so i'm notrom what i have known, the market as a whole is stable. unless there is a need for new priorities, and to rearrange projects due to higher interest rates. >> i know you get questions on the german economy. in davos, you said germany is tired but not sick. there are questions about the german industrialists that in the past had their glory and now, are coming down. how did that happen? >> germany has some structural deficit. these deficits have been covered by low interest rates and demand from the global markets, and budget -- the cheap fossil energy we imported from russia. the situation has changed. the german economy has to find a new basis. i think there is potential for a fast turnaround, given the human capital, the intellectual property, the substance of our economy. but since the circumstances have changed, we have to improve the framework conditions for our businesses, which means the labor market, which means less red tape. we need investments in the public infrastructure, an

requirements if the ecb feels like they don't really have distantly handled these risks properly.erday, the swedish regulator said they expect more pain had for real estate companies but also banks and potential write-downs. we can expect regulators will continue to closely watch this space. well worth checking the story. we will give a debit -- we will give you the update. >> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. let's get back to the data prince. the inflation story out of the u.s. that really about the markets yesterday with yields up and equities down, this was the picture then. you got the headline story here. that is the chart. the yellow line indicating the service and expectations and then you have the headline cpi. they landed at 3.1%. the surveys had seen 2.9%. coming down off the surveys even as it moved down. the trajectory for the headline remains lower but not moving as quickly as the surveys expected. here is the really important cold part of the inflation story. you strip out food and drink it into 3.9%. that was in mind with the previous month. services tick

should the ecb do that? >> yes. that's a short answer. >> will they do it? >> i don't know.f you look at germany, the economy is struggling. you know, car sales are down and there's a lot more struggle over what is going on in the united states. i think they should do a cut before the u.s. does. >> let's see if that happens. let's talk about the boj. going through all of the major currencies here, obviously 150 is jaw boning by the boj. it wants to hike rates, but it cannot do that in the economy that is still struggling. what is the outlook? >> it is grim. for 20 years, they have been at 0% rates. they don't have anywhere to cut. they don't have -- if they increase rates, it is painful for them as well. they're just in a tough situation. it is an aging economy and population there. it makes it difficult for them to still compete. they want to be a manufacturing country, but they aren't. they don't have the population and the youth to do that. most of that is ut-sourced. i don't think they made the transition to being a completely tech country as well. >> all right. finally,

the difference between the ecb and federal reserve.e the federal reserve has been clearer about the threshold to reduce interest rates. the federal reserve in their minutes, i have to say, you can call them stale. what it speaks to overall, this federal reserve is not in a rush to reduce interest rates anytime soon. lisa: this line in particular caught people's attention. some noted the progress toward price stability could stall, particularly if aggregate demand strengthened her progress in improving supply chains could falter. this is fear of an upside risk to inflation that was not present in the previous press conference. jonathan: higher risk, cutting too soon or waiting too long? lisa: now it is cutting too soon. that is the subtle shift that has caused a 60-basis increase in 10-year yields since the end of december. jonathan: one data point doesn't matter, but that one data point with cpi, you can make it two with ppi. lisa: which is why people are leaning into this idea that they have more ability to be patient. we are pricing

the fed >> there's always the risk of a policy error and that's the one we see potentially with the ecb>>> now sources have confirmed to cnbc the blog has approved a principal 13 sanctions on russia a formal adoption has yet to take place. >>> still coming up in the show, nvidia is due to report earnings, fresh from having overtaken alphabet as the third largest company in the u.s we will be discussing what to expect next. shopify's point of sale system helps you sell at every stage of your business. with fast and secure payment. card readers you can rely on. and one place to manage it all. whatever the stage, businesses that grow grow with shopify. when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fa

. >>> let's push on with the survey from the ecb.uropean inflation expectations for the year have risen with the outlook elevated the medium-12 month cpi ticked higher to 3.3% the three-year outlook sits at 2.5% that is above the ecb target >>> goldman sachs analysts say they no longer expect a u.s. rate cut in may as policymakers caution on cutting too soon. fed governor lisa cook says the economy has become too sided and the central bank needs more confidence vice chair phillip jefferson said weaker employment could become risks chris waller says they need more time that inflation is cooling before making a decision >>> we had data out yesterday with the u.s. jobless claims fell this month. the flash composite pmi shows a slower pace of expansion with manufacturing output rising to 51.5 our u.s. colleagues will have more on the state of the u.s. economy with the ceo of jpmorgan chase, jamie dimon tune in for that interview on monday. >>> let's get back to the earnings story look at standard charter with a $1 billion share buyback a

>> they're not adversarial anymore and you point out what jan highlights in the note in is the ecb andt rates and that will have an effect on risk assets that is positive. >> it would be weird if you're telling your grandkids the bull market ended because the economy was so good. it's only if it's too good and then it was actually weaker than we got. >> good stuff. i'll see you on closing bell. two big winners and losers in this session. we're back right after this. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it

maria: you think the ecb cuts in june, the federal reserve cuts in august and we're going to get a badex at the end of the month. >> right. almost certainly. it's just a calculation, not an estimate. maria: should i use that selloff if it happens on the pce to buy in? >> we would be buying the dips. maria: buy the dips. >> we have a 5500 target. we'll upgrade after the fed starts cutting. don't oversell the pce number. maria: part of the issue is the questions that we want answers to in materials of the safety of the banking sector. valuations in tech. look at new york community bank corp. this morning, mario, as the fed rate cut worry could add to the bank's commercial real estate exposure risk. the stock is up p 1 and a third percent. tthe regional bank's largest losses are from rent stabilized apartment buildings in new york city, $18 billion of the bank loans are backed by the rent stabilized units, representing 20% of the total loan book. when we were in davos, howard lutnick was with us and he told us from cantor fitzgerald that sees $700 billion in defaults in commercial real es

we are expecting the ecb at some point to cut interest rates, perhaps sooner than the united states. european markets are mixed. we're just getting started this hour. we have big tech on the horizon markets are on the move. we've got the word on wall street panel weighing in on earnings, the fed and january jobs report, meta, apple, amazon, reporting tonight after the close. and then house speaker mike johnson will be with me here tomorrow live, we'll talk business, politics and policy and that new border deal that we think is dead on arrival in the house. the speaker will be here. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ i'm looking to the sky to save me. ♪ looking for a sign of life. ♪ looking for something to help me turn out right. ♪ and looking for a complication. ♪ a third kid. what if she likes playing golf? it's expensive. we're outlawing golf. -wait, can i still play? -since we work with empower. we don't have to worry about planning for a third kid. you can still play golf. -sometimes. -ughh! empower. what's next. people are excited about what ai will d

ecb governing council member francois warning that the ecb should not wait too long to cut rates. more in the dovish side, speaking to a french newspaper, saying the risk of moving too late exist as much as moving too soon. the comments coming with rising anticipation that the ecb may be the first bank to cut rates. this is what a lot of people were saying last year. that the ecb would move first and they have more reason to, simply because growth is not there. manus: you talk about the number that nato gave germany, the slowdown in germany, which was a bulwark of european growth. if you look at what francois says, three successive degrees of freedom can be another argument not to be -- not to overly-delay the first cut. the question is, how poor is the economic scenario in the euro zone, and does it warrant faster and more aggressive cuts? that brings you to what european bonds are going to do relative to treasury. lisa: what this does to some of the perp mastication's we heard from ursula von der leyen, they want to spend more. is this something they have some willingness among

plus, the ecb minutes. on top of those fed minutes we will get more fed speak through the week.ichelle bowman, patrick harker, lisa cook, neel kashkari, christopher waller, and more. we had a lot of economic data this week. now it will be a matter of what the governor and the presidents all feel about it what -- about what it means for the pace of rate cuts. we have had a lot of volatility this week at 20 basis point mover from close on monday to midday today, passing waste -- way past the 460 level in the two year yield. we will see if that level sustains when we hear that commentary and those fed minutes. we keep an eye on that had more next week and we have earnings to give a sense of the consumer. we have seen from other other economic data this week that retail sales and consumer sentiment. a check on the markets. the 10 year yield facing an eight basis point move up to 431 on the day. a popular trade. two year yield at 467 on the week. from new york that doesn't from us. same time same place next week. this is bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome

it is zero, according to the cain market cap website, two officials of the european central bank, ecb , believe that despite the recent increase in the price of bitcoin, the current enthusiasm for this currency it is inappropriate and with the bursting of the price tag , social damage will occur. the two european central bank officials also alleged price manipulation and fraud in the supply of bitcoin. at the same time, according to the kayin website, jp mergan investment company announced. despite the approval of the acceptance of bitcoin by investment funds, the initial intensity of money entering these funds has decreased, so the report of some price corrections in bitcoin has relatively slowed down the entry of funds. kerrburi is the largest volume supplies are dedicated to liquefied gas, methanol, and petroleum. in the inner hall of the energy exchange, more than 2,620 types of products, including methanol, solvent, naphtha , and iso recycle are displayed on the display board. in the international hall, more than 1050 tons of liquefied gas and the residue of the distillation towe

but it's why the ecb, the european central bank, has been steadily increasing the cost of borrowing,ugh it hits consumers and businesses�* ability to spend, it should get inflation nearer to that 2% target. so to find out how people are feeling about the impact on their daily lives, we sent our very own damien mcguinness out on the streets of berlin. traditionally, germany has relatively low cost of living and quite high wages compared to other similar countries. but there's a feeling here that things are changing, so people are feeling increasingly the squeeze. train drivers have been on strike and farmers have been taking the streets. and when you talk to people here in germany, many have the horrible feeling that prices are rising faster than wages. we notice it everywhere. i mean, the rent, of course, the charges for the apartment that we pay, the electricity for the gas, and of course, when we go to the supermarket, but also in the restaurant, berlin used to be a cheap city. it's not the case anymore. translation: at the - supermarket, it used to be that for a five—person family

, we are expecting growth in the u.s., europe is a lot weaker than united states some people expect ecbre the fed,the world banks said global economy on course to error first half decade of growth in 30 years forecasting global growth slow for third year in a row 2.4% david. what is your sense of the globe? >> dangerously weak, that showing o up in way adjustments down to forecasts u.s. is resilient you know in a big chunk is because the government spending so much money propped consumption us about indissatisfy week notable part of u.s. economy you look abroad downgrades across the board, so, yes, china and india are doing okay. that was picked up in imf forecast they do a purchasing power parity forecast that they give double weight to china almost triple weight more than triple weight to india those economies do okay pulls up total but reality under surface is that it is a really grim outlook in 2024, and the same weakness in 2025. investment just isn't you know, loans are troubling should have grown, hugely, in the 2023, this is the loans banks make the smaller bids floating rate lo

you hear it from the boe, the ecb. they cannot not convinced. they have been adamant about it, and that is reflected in the selloff we have seen in bonds, the higher interest rates as well. that is where we are with fed policy, and in that context it is interesting, new zealand, people are starting that they may need to hike. we were surprised, but the rbnz may not be done with its hiking cycle yet, and if the rest of the central bankers around the world are paying attention, that is one more sign that they may need to keep policy tighter for longer than the market is pricing and at the moment. tom: chinese markets, mainland markets are closed as they start the holiday, and hong kong markets have been a half day. where are you on these asian markets? where do you stand post lunar new year? >> it is hard to look beyond anything other than chinese equity benchmarks and whether we get some signs of support and stabilization and pledges to reassert control over the markets and the economy during this lunar new year when we come back, the market has

that's important for the ecb in its calculations as markets pair their expectations of cuts from theean central bank to 100 basis points in 2020 -- in 2024. we will hear from andrew bailey, the bank of england governor later in the day. we will see if anything comes through. 125 then on pound dollar. the yen and the focus for us, suggestions from officials in japan may intervention may be coming down at some point, 150 for the japanese yen, just down. in the euro $.95, a little bit of movement on the swiss. let's check in on your fx markets and get calls within the fx space and bring in the head of ethics strategy at saxo. thanks for joining us. let's start on the bloomberg dollar index or at least on the dollar. the bloomberg dollar is up about 3%, little under 3% year to date. is there further support coming through for the greenback or are we starting to peak now. how much is pricing in terms of rate hike expectations are great cut expectations for the dollar? >> good morning, great to be on with you. i think this year, we started off, there was a huge expectation about the neares

coming through in terms of the outlook for this year saying net interest income, we are expecting the ecb to lower interest rates, at 7.9, almost 80 billion euros. in terms of loan loss provisions they see those below 800 million euros. at they are targeting a payout ratio of at least 70% and are looking at a capital distribution of about one billion euros to shareholders. they seem 2024 net profit above 2023 levels. we will be speaking to the cfo. we will do a deep dive into those earnings and the next hour. that interview at 7:10 u.k. time . let's check in on these markets. we had the earnings story yesterday on wall street powering through any concerns about inflation. s&p got back below -- above the 5000 level, flat but still above the 5000 level. european futures looking to build on those gains as well. .4 of 1% move higher. ftse 100 looking to add .3 of 1% as we look forward gdp data as well. lizzy burden will give us a preview. it nasdaq futures with the heavy lead into the tech sector looking at 17870, down .1 of 1%. use saw the strength coming from in terms of earnings from robin

we are awaiting the ecb numbers at the top of the hour. >>> a quick look at futures.e are expecting slightly lower start to the trading session. s&p 500 is off 16 points. dow jones industrial average could fall by 83 points. keep in mind markets were closed yesterday. on the average, they he were breaking a five-week winning streak. >>> pushing on with new research from moody's shed light on the wealth of corporate structures to be used to sanctions and launder money. according to the moody's shell company indicator, there are seven characteristics including do dormancy with the uk and china raising the most red flags. we have ted, who is the head of the financial crimes division at moody's. thank you for coming in. staggering numbers in this report. one director is 943 years old. that is a big red flag. china has one with $2 billion in revenue and one employee. what kind of data were you looking at here? >> we reviewed the information on 500 million companies. it is important to say the vast majority of shell companies are formed for the legitimate purposes. 80% of c

. >> not just the fed governors, but we can add in the ecb speakers, the boe speakers as well. everyone is saying not yet. we need more evidence before we decide and fit -- inflation has vanquished before we are confident enough to cut rates. yesterday we saw strong ism numbers. it was extremely strong held by the extra shipping cost we saw from what's going on in the red sea. that said that inflationary picture. think about last friday. the wages growth we saw. the idea that inflation is not cooling down completely. it has led to this allergic reaction in the bond market with everyone moving all at once, in terms of pricing any cuts from the fed to come later on in the year. maybe there's a more sensible equilibrium. we don't have to worry about things until may. perhaps the market will settle down. tom: the allergic reaction in the bond market. thank you very much. ringing insights across the central-bank action this morning. we will look out, bp earnings, some :00 a.m. u.k. time. we have the numbers that came in with the beat last week. whether they follow suit, it will be i

financial conditions are somewhat loose, whereas europe's are fairly tight, even though the ecb's cash rate is nowhere near as high as the fed's. so you have a range of factors that are saying that there is no smoking gun for equities to turn around and move lower. they are definitely becoming more vulnerable, more exposed. there is talk of the equity premiums, equity risk premium becoming too compressed. so with all of that, you have to be apprehensive. that you might mistime things. all the same, equities look, at the moment, like they have the momentum. and so far in the last few months, momentum has been a winning strategy especially in japan, but not only in japan. so there is a good chance equities will keep moving higher unless we get the sort of serious set of bad data that would mean the fed is going to cut so never than later. annabelle: we have seen some momentum and a bit of a rally in bitcoin. we have been discussing this morning the reasons for that. supply and demand dynamics, leverage creeping back into the sector. but i am curious, bitcoin and crypto overall makeup suc

if they do that especially if the federal reserve, the ecb, the bank of england, the pboc are all cutting, all easing, we think that is very bullish for the yen. we think that's a tailwind. we can see the yen rallying up to 135 here. to relate to japanese equities, we would actually see that as a headwind similar to what you saw in the u.s. in late 2021. as the central bank begins to hike, that's obviously a net negative for companies that are borrowing. it will also make japanese exports more expensive. japan is a pretty big exporter to the world. on the flipside, it would make the imports of commodities cheaper. it could work both ways. but we would be a little cautious on japanese equities. annabelle: are you cautious on chinese equities? over the weekend the big headline was chinese regulators are pledging to stabilize markets. do you see any investment opportunities here even from a valuation perspective? spencer: from a valuation perspective this -- the shanghai 300 now is that 2700 -- 2007 prices. since 2007 chinese gdp has quadrupled, corporate profits has quadrupled and the 10 ye

the boe, the ecb and the fed.a point where there is an expectation and stronger economy where there will be fewer cuts starting later year to hire. but equity markets are hiring correlation. is that a healthier set up for further gains ahead? i will leave that with you as we reflect on that correlation between the two year yield in u.s. stocks around the s&p. that has changed and is adjusted. let's look at what's happening with that coin. the expectation around the fed has played into the story, but now it about the etf flows. here's the move yesterday in terms of volumes, we were back to levels that we last saw her we got the etf's near the beginning of this year. so the moves against those etf's on the back of it was optimism around crypto burst through. 57,000 is back to around 56,000 we continue to watch that story. plenty more coming up. markets today with the ceo on markets today. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the

on the earnings front, result from block and booking and moderna and livenation ecb is releasing the meeting at 7:30 a.m. and we have patrick harker and neel kashkari speaking today >>> and we have enthusiasm with nvidia's blockbuster earnings report look at futures right now which are in the green right now the dow would open up 100 points higher t. is about the nasdaq at 2% higher in the pre-market. for more on the trading day ahead, let's bring in katrina dudley at franklin mutual. great to have you here >> thanks for having me. >> nvidia and mega cap tech. what is your view after the blowout report >> people love to look for the negative in this why don't we just celebrate the fact we have the amazing american company that is fueling demand and not only did they just beat what we were expecting, which were fairly elevated revenue expectations -- >> very? >> yes they beat that high bar. let's think about the context in which they did that. they did it almost with one hand tied behind their back the supply is disrupted by taiwan semi which cannot meet demand we have not talked abou

which you talk to people all the time, and, that is debatable yield curve inverted, both fed and ecb fall money. >> what is path of lease the resistance, the wisdom of crowds expectations this week dropped sharply 2 1/2% new york fed measure debatable, prices are really high, as you know,, whether eggs, cars, super bowl tickets. maria: that, too. >> that, too. >> cell phone services not just items cheryl casone. cheryl: let's talk about sell-off yesterday because i can't help but wonder worse sell-off since march of '23 the fed telegraphing of this he very data gebt hearing speak out of officials game can change may when it comes to interest rate cuts or not having interest rate cuts this year my question yesterday was it inflection point for markets was this a sign market was woken up not getting six rate cuts? >> i don't think so. now, yesterday was -- but he yesterday afternoon, i would be less sure but markets moving back up, and commodity prices making a new low, natural gas, soy, leading downside, and so people are coming back down some. but boy there is no doubt that if you ta

ecb governing member panetta says the time to cut rates is fast approaching. progress to the 2% number was rapid and would need to loosen policy. this points to the outlook for inflation and economic growth due in march which is critical of when to start cutting rates. in an interview with cnbc, panetta highlighted the need for fresh growth in europe after the series of high rates. >> we expect the central bank to reduce gradually interest rates. we badly needed to foster new growth. today, europe is not growing. italy is maybe doing something better than other countries. we are, today, at the level that will not guarantee sustained and sustainable dprgrowth. we badly need growth in order to meet the requirements of people to reduce social malaise. we have to make the stat in terms of productivity. only productivity can guarantee. >>> the eu agreed on the deal over the tight fiscal rules to give more time to reduce debt and incentivizing investment. this amendment of the rules saw countries increase spending to help recover from the pandemic. both member state

euro-dollar and focus, we have been hearing from ecb officials. governing council member suggesting march should be in the cards when considering and pondering a cut. 107 on euro-dollar. francis suggesting it would be better to cut slightly earlier than wait too long and terms of easing policy. 150 on the japanese yen. sounding pretty dovish, the currency down .2 of 1%. brent, 82.82, flat even the gains of around 1.1% we saw a noel yesterday. let's cross over to asia and bring in avril hong standing by in singapore. the rally is pronounced. avril: it is absolutely pronounced. if you take a look at the regions equity benchmark, msci asia pacific headed for its highest close in 22 months and on track for a for the weekly gain, best winning streak in about one year helped along today by the performance in its u.s. counterparts, but flipped the board, because it is also driven by china know your travel data that showed a surge in real trips, and this is raising optimism of a recovery and consumption, a pickup there. do not forget mainland markets reop

we will see the ecb process started around april. is the fed may or june, we could argue about that. it feels like australia will join the party and the second half of the year. i do think curve steepening makes sense. albeit, there will be have some -- there will be oscillation depending on the individual data points, which are getting over reported at this stage. the broad theme is that inflation is no longer at nine, we are at three. fed funds is that almost 5.4. that is too restrictive. if we stay there for too long, we are in danger that the economy is slowing too much and then having to do more rate cutting like we've seen in previous cycles. haslinda: what is key for returns for you in the next 12 months, and, how are you assessing the risk? >> i think the key things we are monitoring is the evolution of the rate hiking cycles. over the course of 24, we get closer to a large amount of corporate credit being refinanced. that really kicks off from 2025 onwards. but i do think, had the markets attention in the back half of the ye

cpi number, important for the ecb. 108 on euro-dollar. much of that is down to the softness coming through for the u.s. dollar. $83 a barrel. tightness continues in terms of the output. that puts a floor under the oil markets list, still above $83 a barrel. iron ore down. continuing concern about demand out of china. we will speak to the ceo of fortescue when it comes to their more than 80% exposure to the chinese market. that will be a conversation worth tuning in for. iron ore prices are down. let's get to the story around nvidia. searching post market as we discussed after delivering another eye-popping sales forecast that beat estimates and consensus. speaking on the earnings, the ceo says generative ai has now hit a tipping point. >> we guide one quarter at a time, fundamentally, the conditions are excellent for continued growth. calendar 2024 tech calendar 2020 five and beyond. let me tell you why. we are at the beginning of two industrywide transitions. tom: let's get analysis with alex webb. a big day as we passed the results. the

we also are from the vice president of the ecb saying we are not ready to start cutting rates.r. good luck with that. jonathan: fed officials, boj officials have something to say. dollar-yen 150.64. there's always a feeling in markets. sometimes there's something to it and other times there is integrated this feels aligned in the sand for officials. lisa: is it the line in the sand for them to say we will do something about it. it seems like they will come out and say it. everyone's like we've heard this before and they keep on selling. when do they actually pulled the trigger on something more meaningful and when do they raise rates for stocks to move the bond buying or do some of the financial impressions part jonathan: they need to be credible and if you keep saying it at some point you need to do something. that conversation has to grow in the weeks or months to come. lisa: that's what you are seeing now in the market. jonathan: onto surveillance this morning, fed speak on deck after the inflation data. vice chair for supervision both speaking with more data due out later t

what the fed is focused on versus the ecb and the boe and other central banks is very different. i think that there is tail risk from both inflation not necessarily packaging as well as the market is saying. hedging that, energy is a hedge from that perspective. recessionary wise there are certain markets in the world but have more value. u.k. comes to mind from the perspective of the very staples driven value kind of market. >> the u.k. being a bright spot, haven't heard that in a while given the fact they saw inflation go up to the first time in 10 months. they have a weaker growth outlook the vast majority, why is it appealing to you? marvin: what i would say as it provides a hedge for those that are worried with a larger global downturn in growth. there markets would be more supportive in that kind of environment. jonathan: marvin of state street, equity futures on the s&p by a third of 1%. just going through the numbers prayed apple and amazon, 12% of the s&p 500. >> we saw 11% reporting on tuesday is the reason everyone cares about this. how high is the bar and to me the ap

. >> we expect the ecb to cut from april. a bit before the fed and bank of england.e will see if that happens. we had a weak set of data in europe the last couple quarters. on balance, that supports equities. >>> moving on. jamie dimon is warning that the markets are too optimistic for a chance of the soft economy. speaking to cnbc, dimon is concerned about a number of economic factors. >> 70% or 80% chance we will have a soft landing. i give it half that. we may very well have one, but pres the market thinks it is higher. the other mistake is to look at the year. all of the factors with qt and fiscal spending will play out over multiple years. they will play out. in my mind, i'm cautious. >> dimon said higher rates could create issues in the real estate sector for lenders. >> you talk about the defaults being higher. that is partly normalization process. they were so low for so long and you are not at a crisis level. if rates go up and we have recession, there will be real estate problems. some banks will have a bigger real estate problem than others. >> dimon addre

that is coming through the ecb saying we must be patient and cautious. then saying we should be in no rush to cut, we are open to that in the second half of the year, modestly in positive territory. ftse 100 -- nasdaq futures without focus on tech currently 100 futures down to 10th of a percent. that's have a look across asset. another big auction coming through later today. that will be something of a test for treasury markets as they absorb the fed speak. we are expecting a hear from fed speakers later today after digesting what was said. u.s. tenure at 4.09. a little bit of strength coming through for the single currency on the back of softness from the u.s. dollar. japanese yen focus for us at 148. pimco saying the boj will move in march out of the ultra-loose policy and get to 0%. brent currently at $78 a barrel just up. let's get to the asian markets in the view from singapore with april hong. a little bit of optimism in chinese stocks. msci asia-pacific currency of 3/10 of a percent. is there an expectation that this will be staying, what is unfol

lots of reasons to be still hawkish, and it would suggest that the bank of england cooks after the ecbhe fed. tom: that report will be interesting. you tried and politics. as all of this action is happening at the bank of england yesterday, you also put on the charm offensive with the business community. what came out of that? lizzie: they call it the smoke salmon effort and it doesn't stop laborers efforts to woo business. the woman at the polls suggest will be the next chancellor is that labor will not raise taxes on company profits. basically saying profits is not a dirty word. echoing tony blair when he said he was relaxed about profit making and people getting rich as long as they pay their taxes. it's a difficult picture for labor because this is the other thing that came out of it. we just don't know what their inheritance is going to be from the conservatives, and the economic outlook as we learned at the bank of england meeting is incredibly uncertain. we have the shadow business secretary of labor on bloomberg radio yesterday saying there isn't much scope to raise taxes, give