we'll go to someone else data driven just like the fed, our steve liesman, standing by. you've been looking at the fed's outlook compared to the actual data. what is that telling you about what investors should expect coming up later today? >> i want to side with joe terranova's equanimity, his calmness in the face of all of this. i was calculating some stuff there, frank. in the time since the fed last met, the ten year is up 40 basis points. the outlook for fed rates is up 74 basis points, in other words, they backed out three rate cuts from the outlook. and the s&p is up 7%. it's paid to be cool. it's paid to be chill in the face of the outlook of a little bit higher inflation as well as less fed easing in the system here. it has been a pretty good bet. what we're going to have today is a little bit of frozen in time, i am interested, frank, i expect the fed will hold on to this phrase from the last statement, the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%

we start with steve liesman and the latest results from the cnbc fed survey. steve?respondents to the survey for march seeing slower growth than last year, but showing more confidence in the soft landing, and less concern, of course, about a recession than we have seen in the past two years. take a look, the recession problem bit has declined to 32%, the lowest since february 2022. well down from the high of 63% in november 2022. the problem with the soft landing is that 52%, up from 47% in the january survey, and 40% in july. here are the numbers. gdp, 1.61% expected. slightly below trend. but a lot better, we'll see in a second, than had been, the forecast before. with the economy going back to what's considered to be potential next year. cpi comes down over a two-year period, to just about what the fed's target is, because of 2.5 on the cpi is equivalent to about the 2% on the pce. there's just 0.3 of a current uptick of the unemployment rate over the next two years. john donald writes -- >> well, we'll see about this. look at what had been the forecast for this y

be back tomorrow before senate banking that is always interesting, as well we'll see you then steve liesman, oursenior economics reporter we have a couple minutes left here, jenny. >> do i need to go >> you wanted to say something before i went to steve, so presumably you had something to say. >> i really think that we can't look at it as systemic i'll give you the preview of my final trade. what i was going to do was sl green. to me it's the opposite side of the new york real estate coin and it's been a huge winner the portfolio with a 6% yield. when we are thinking about new york real estate, this is why my theme has been don't just buy semis, pick individual companies, don't just buy regional banks, pick individual regional banks they're not created equal. i read an article yesterday talking about how money flowing into regional bank cds, because they offer higher rates. so they're really not created equally. i do not believe it's systemic you know, neither does new york city >> was that your final trade >> fl green was. >> you have a final trade? >> palonteer >> love it >> do me a favor

let's welcome in steve liesman, leslie picker, josh brown. he is here, post nine. leslie, i want to begin with you, we have had a crowd over my shoulder for the better part of the last half hour. is this stock open? it was halted, it has done about a 65% round-trip today. take us through what the latest developments are? >> the saga of the stock today is just a microcosm of what this bank has gone through over the past few weeks, or so. the announcement, quite striking today. a whole shift in the management team, a refresh of the board, really, an infusion of $1 billion in capital. you see shares currently somewhat stable compared to what they have been doing earlier today, so i can run you through the details here. the liberty strategic capital -- that is the firm managed by the former treasury secretary steven mnuchin, as well as hudson bay capital, reverence capital partners, and citadel, hedge fund, not the security firm, as well as some other institutional investors -- are making a combined $1 billion investment in this company, subject to finalized regulatory

we already have a little bit he says there is no rush to lower interest rates steve liesman joins us with more this is now part two waller said something similar a month ago, steve has it been a month? >> it has been a while he's really the most definitive here, joe. the dgovernor suggesting the fe would cut fewer tea er times thr and later with the growth and inflation data here is the summary. no rush to cut he said hold at a restrictive level longer than previous cut he is not ready to cut than inflation progress materializes. the fed governor went on to say the risk the waiting to cut is significantly lower than acting too soon >> in the absence of an unexpected and material deterioration in the real economy, i'm going to need to see at least a couple of months of better inflation data before i have enough confidence that beginning to cut rates will keep the economy on the path to 2% inflation. >> he did say a couple of months fed cut rate fell with june trading at 60% it goes up as year goes by he cannot rule out the june cut if the reports show progress erhe raised the bar. almo

joining me now is diane swonk, chief economist at kpmg, and also steve liesman. thank you for being here. why some traders maw call it a goal i locks scenario, but is it really? >> a bits of a rorschach test, dom. you can separate the numbers into those numbers that argued for the fed to cut sooner, and then for them to not cut or cut a little later. 167,000 of downward revisions, that spoke of slack in the labor market. moderating wage growth, and higher unemployment rate up 0.2. a lot of that could turn around and be the exact opposite. annual wage growth north of 4%, the unemployment rate still below 4%, so i think the fed looks at this data and says, you know what? i'm not making any calls on this data, especially because you have this big gap. i think they wait for all of this to shake off before making up their mind and do anything else. >> diane, that's the read. that's generally what i've heard from a lot of economists out there. is this the way that the fed is looking at this data ahead of key inflation data next week? >> well, the inflation data will be

joining us now thechief economist at nationwide mutual, the portfolio manager at harvard, along with steve liesman. steve what did you see in today's data, and how might it affect what the fed does? >> that's where it leads to. forecasters are plugging the fresh data into the inflation consumer spending numbers into their models and coming up with a bit less growth and a bit more inflation when it comes to the fed's preferred inflation indicator, the price index. here is the data, that's a 0.2 miss for february and 0.3 for february. minus 0.8, a miss by 0.1. ppi coming in double what was expected and double the prior month up 0.6%. core ppi 0.3. plug it all in now, forecasters surveyed this morning by cnbc, you see the fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core pce coming in at 0.3 as well would mean only a modest decline year over year from 2.9 to 2.8 suggesting progress has stalled bringing down inflation. first quarter gdp marked down to 1.8%. a distinct slowing from the 3.2 in the prior quarter. the markets might be overlooking one positive from the ppi report. a measure on profits for cons

steve liesman joins us now. steve. >> hey, tyler. thank you. nearly half of americans are concerned enough about the national security threat posed by tiktok to support either banning the social media app or forcing its sale. there are substantial political divides, generational divides and splits among those who use the app and those who don't. 20% say it should be banned no matter what. 27% say it should be banned unless sold to a non-chinese company. put that together, 47% support a ban or a sale which is a plurality. 22% say they're unsure. 31% say hands off of my tiktok. republicans come in 60 to 20 for the ban or for sale. democrats split 40 to 30 in favor. just slightly in favor. those aren't even the biggest splits we picked up here. 31% of all voters say it should be banned but it's 48% for those 18 to 34. just 11% for the 65 and older crowd. while 20% of non-tiktok users oppose the ban, that jumps to 53% for those who are using the app at all. 67% for those scrolling through the app every day. this issue may be more fraught for the de

eastern rick joins morgan brennan, steve liesman, bringing you numbers, news and analysis. again, that's 8:15 a.m. tomorrow on cnbc.com. >> i was going to sleep in, until you told me that. >> can't now got to watch. >> i'm going to be awake setting the alarm for that one. >>> over to today's breaking news that is that ftx founder sam bankman-fried sentenced now to 25 years in prison kate roone you is live out the courthouse with the story. hi, kate. >> reporter: hey, there tyler. sam bankman-fried sentenced to 25 years in prison the big headline for what u.s. prosecutors argue was one of the biggest financial frauds in u.s. history. capped off the fall of the one-time crypto billionaire less than two years ago, living in a $30 million penthouse in the bahamas and really the face of the crypto industry. today, took the stand in a beige prison jumpsuit pleading for the judge's leniency much more contrite, apologetic than defiance and evasion heard from him on the stand where cross-examined in the fall in his criminal trial he said today his actions haunt hi every day. forfeit

. >>> let's start in washington and steve liesman with what we should expect from the fed chair and thec today. hi, steve. >> hey, tyler. yeah, it's possible the most important answers or the most important question of this meeting, when might the fed cut rates may come at 2:00. in january, they said -- >> well, they repeat that, it's going to be like going back in time, resetting the clock once again, telling investors they still don't have that confidence to cut rates. they need more data showing declining inflation before they telegraph any rate cuts. new projections could provide clues to the policy outlook, as well. they projected in december gdp 1.4%. unemployment, 3.9%. core pce, 2.9% in january. so running a little hotter that be their forecast. and the fed funds rate with a projection of 4.6%, there is some concern that the individual fed members, once they get done projecting it, could take off one of those rate cuts from the projection there and raise their outlook for the federal reserve funds rate for the end of the year. it would take only two members to do that. i'll live

steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> the fed started the two-day policy meeting amid the first rateike discussion and exit negative rates. tightening is likely to be announced tomorrow and goldman sachs expects a cut this meeting rather than april. there is a 40% chance of rates tomorrow. cnbc has been asking economists about the expectations for the central bank. >> over the last few days, there's been a shift for march given the strong wage negotiations as well as multiple articles over the last few days in media implying the boj will move. those things, i think, increased the probability on march. there's still an expectation that the rise in rates over the coming year or two will be slow. >> the bank of japan has been saying for some time and hammering on the point it wants to see good wage increases and what we have received on friday is an even better than expected number. we have to keep in mind this is only for a small labor force. it will set trends. this was a strong wage growth number that should be enough to move. >> the background is now very strong. you mentioned the n

steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> it is a really exciting data week as well.nvestors eyeing key inflation figures from the united states tomorrow and thursday as well as in europe toward the end of the week. the uk will release wage growth data tomorrow. a key piece of evidence that andrew bhaailey is looking at before he starts talking about rates. and more with the bank of england meeting next week. i would suggest the two key pieces of data are the consumer price data as well with the cpi number and on thursday with the retail sales. just talking about the former and what did keep it higher and air fares and strong gains and car insurance. it will be interesting to see those figures remain >> we have been speaking about the consumer being the one who holds up the u.s. economy and retail sales which is projected to rise 0.5%. reversing that 0.8% decline in january. >> that is it for this show. start of the week. up next is "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so when i first started golo, i was expecting to lose aroun

our steve liesman joins us from the u.s. monetary policy forum here in new york city. steve, good afternoon. good to see you. >> reporter: hey, frank. how are you? >> all right, so, steve, two big conversations. you had all of us watching today looking for any clues on what the fed is going to do next especially after that pce report. what was your big takeaway? >> i think two things. b barkin is more bullish. he added will we see rate cuts this year, we'll see. the ten year sold off on that. look what happened when the data came out at 10:00. the ten year fell in yield. while both have their different points of view, neither is dogmatic and able to think about moving where they're going to go based on what the data says. january data from inflation may have been an anomaly and not necessarily going to change their point of view on anything. they're not dogmatic about it. that's where the fed is, not hawkish, not dovish, just letting the data tell them where to go. you had a january number that was lousy. we'll make up our minds more about what will happen, frank. >> i

steve liesman has spoke on the a handful of fed presidents at the u.s.rk today, and joins us now alongside former fed governor jeremy stein. i'll send it over to you, steve. >> dom, yesterday i promised you what i thought would be one of the most interesting discussions of the day, and i think we have it. former fed governor jeremy stein. give me your thoughts right off the bat on whether or not you think the fed can bring inflation back down to 2.0%. >> yeah, i think that may be challenging. so obviously i preface it by saying we're in an amazing place. if you think back to where we were a year ago, it's unfathomable where we are, inflation being this low and the labor market still being basically great. >> nobody here was predicting that last year. >> exactly. so the context for this has to be whether by luck or by skill, they've done an amazing job. now, my best guess right now is that inflation is tracking 2.8. i don't know that it is going to want to voluntarily fall much further of its own accord. it's come back a lot in part because of the supply

joining us now is our senior economics reporter steve liesman alongside cleveland fed president lorettave, i'll send it over to you. >> dom, thanks for that wonderful introduction. i am pleased to bring loretta mester, the cleveland fed president, live here from the cleveland federal reserve office. loretta, thank you for joining us. i want to ask you, fed chair jay powell, in the last couple of days sitting before congress, said he needs a little bit more evidence to be confident inflation is falling. he said we're not looking for better inflation readings, just more of them. does that describe your -- what you would need or your test for being confident to be able to reduce rates? >> thanks, steve, for having me. i would like to see inflation move down a couple more data points so we can be confident on that sustainable path to 2%, and whether that's a little bit more evidence or a little bit more evidence, that's in the eye of the beholder. but i want to feel comfortable that the january inflation reading, which went up a bit more than the markets were expecting, that we can revert t

we'll find out what it is in a moment from morgan stanley's chief globalist analyst and steve liesmanu've been injured in a fed crackup. steve, put yesterday's activity into context for us, any sort of day later ruminations on your part? >> you know, i think this is reminding me a little bit of the december meet bring the market is going a little bit far on not very much, based upon what powell said yesterday. yeah, the three rate cuts survived the projections, but very slimly, tyler. it was one vote essentially away from being down to two. and look, the market could be right here, and seth carpenter, who i'm going to hear from in a second, could well be right here about his inflation outlook. but i still think there's some risk. if we don't get a better report, a better inflation report in the march data that we get in april, i think there's going to be some back tracking of the optimism out there right now. that's my take. sorry to be like this on this fabulous day of a new ipo and the market having so much fun after the fed. but remember, the market -- the bond markets are backtrac

steve liesman, thank you very much.s not a state, but you get my point. >>> no matter what the fed does at the next meeting, which is next week, one of our next guests says "the alchemy of low rates is over." while broad spending is strong rngs there are plenty signs of potential slowdowns. how should you be positioned now based on the data? joining us is the head of investments at thornburg investment management. thanks to both of you here. jeff, first to you. does what steve just told you about that cpi change your expectations for your clients about what the fed does with rates? >> if anything, it strengthens our expectations. what we have seen coming into this is a surprisingly resilient consumer in the face of higher inflation. the alchemy of low interest rates is over. >> you said that. >> i said it. >> i quoted you back to you. you can't quote you back to me back to you. >> that consumer is struggling. when you peel back the onion, to keep the spending going, they have to borrow. that low-end consumer, we're seei

despite the fact, as tim just said, at $130 anden chang, this is an all-time high >> let's get to steve liesman with us now. steve, all the commodities that we talked about, that we listed here hitting new highs, et cetera, you know this, is this on the fed's radar because consumers see it, consumers feel it, and yet, the fed gave the all-clear at the last meeting >> yeah. pardon me, it is -- pardon me. just had a drink there water, of course let me -- let me calm you down and then make you a little bit more anxious the first thing is this. commodities don't feed directly into consumer prices so -- pardon me. you can have a surge in commodity prices and it won't nicely show up in the cpi. the problem is that we have still high service inflation, and goods inflation and commodity deflation, disinflation, has offset some of that what we're losing is the offset to higher service prices this is the reason why, coming out of the meeting, and the last past several days i've been very concerned that the market's gotten a little too bullish on the outlook for the fed. the reason is because, when i look

steve liesman joins us now. steve? >> hey, melissa. yeah, fed chair powell and the fed's committee stuck to a modestly dovish outlook at the rate-setting meeting today, despite two months of disappointing inflation numbers. powell says it's still appropriate to cut rates later this year. the fed, the committee on average stuck to their three-cut forecast, despite those -- itself having higher inflation and growth forecast. and then fed also saying slow quantitative tightening, quote, fairly soon. powell downplayed the impact of the january and february inflation numbers. >> i take the two of them together, and i think they haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2%. i don't think that story has changed. >> at the same time, the committee as a whole said it is not confident enough to cut rates, and the dot plot, or the individual fed members rate forecast skewed just a bit hawkish. instead of five officials below the median, there's now just one. nine or

steve liesman is here with more on those details day one of the testimony formally known as humphrey hawkins. what did we learn headline wise, steve? >> i think the headline is the federal reserve is -- the chair sees the economy continuing to remain strong, sees the labor market continuing to be strong, as well. but also he sees inflation coming down, and this that context, he said that he's -- he believes that interest rates can come down significantly over the next several years not just this year, but also next year. he also, i would say, dom, put the bar not as high as maybe we thought it was he said they're just looking for a bit more evidence that inflation is continuing to come down and also in that context, we're looking for better inflation readings -- not better inflation readings than we have had, just the same ones we've had. i don't know if we have that bite, if we could run it, guys if not, i think i'll just paraphrase it, dom >> okay. just paraphrase it for us here >> just that, he said we're looking for a bit more evidence, the same inflation numbers we have, not bett

we're getting new data points on how former president trump is doing in the polls, and steve liesman the results from the latest economic survey, with some of these readings about how this election is going to break down on the topic of the economy. >> i think we have identified the economic issues. the two nominees are deadlocked. joe biden's numbers have improved a bit, but former president trump has a commanding lead when voters are asked who is better on several key issues. let's do the horse race first. in the head-to-head contest, 45% pick biden, that's up from 42% in the prior poll. and 48% for trump. it's a 3.1% averagen of error, all this falls in the margin of error. it is a horse race if you look at the margin of 46-45 okay here are the top one or two issues judged by our 1,000 respondents. inflation, 81% pick it health care, middle class, overall economy, and crime these are the top issues now, let's look at who voters think are -- have the best policies on these issues overall economy, the fourth most important issue, donald trump has a 30-point lead on that. crime, tied

let's get to steve liesman with what to expect. what kind of powell are we going to hear from tomorrow, steve? >> i think, melissa, the thing to listen for is, it's going to break it down into three different categories here, or three different areas. the political side, the regulatory side, and the economic side. politically, expect republicans to coax powell into being more cautious or concerned with inflation. democrats might argue oreso the case for cuts. futures markets going into this testimony with little chance for a rate cut until june. financial regulation might be a hot button issue, with plenty of criticism from republican side and even some democrats about plans to require banks to hold more capital. i expect a bit of that back and forth tomorrow. economically, that's where it gets interesting. powell will be sure to note that inflation progress, but insists there's no victory yet. he'll extol the good economic growth and employment numbers, but say risks are nearly balanced, but with a wary eye for inflation to rekindl

of this, we think there is just going to be a hold pattern, but we will find out when we go to steve liesman, as he gets ready to tell us exactly what the fed is going to do. steve, what do you got? >> the federal reserve is leaving interest rates at five and a quarter to 5%. leaving in those rate cuts, 4.6%. i will get back to that in just a second. they see the economy expanding at a solid pace, same as they did in the last statement. inflation has eased but remains elevated, same as the last statement. here it is, not much change. only one change about job gains remaining strong, no longer saying that they have moderated, saying that inflation and employment goals are moving into better balance, and they said that they still do not expect it will be appropriate to cut the target rate until it has greater confidence inflation is moving towards 2%, which is to say they don't have that confidence yet, so they are not projecting when those cut rates -- those rates might be cut. on the projections, pretty interesting here. a big boost to the 2024 gbp outlook to 2.1% from 1.4%. a tick lower on

steve liesman joins us with the nrf retail monitor.morning, steve. >> reporter: good morning, becky. bouncing back from the january dip with the help of the leap day, of course, but extra ganchs f gains for the day. we get spending data which showed a 1.1% gain using data without autos and gas. 0.2% decline in january. the year over year showing 6.3%. core retail which includes restaurants up 1% compared to 0.4% decline in january. a very strong year over year. a lot of that coming from the leap day. those 1% gains go away, however, down to 0.4% and 0.3% which is modest, but still on the positive side when you adjust for the leap day. they show a rebound from the january decline and maybe not the consumer slowdown. consumer goods and hobbies is strong. beverage as well up 1%. non-store retail is up 0.8%. the 0.2% decline in the retail monitor last month was matched by 0.5% decline in the census retail report. unlike the census, the retail monitorderived from the personal data numbers. economists are looking for 0.8% increase in the cen

steve liesman here to explain. hey, steve. >> hey, tyler.er two months of inflation reports making little progress towards the fed's goals, there's risk next week that those projections for their economic and rate outlooks that they forecast fewer rate cuts. the forecast in december was gdp of 1.4%. core pce, 2.4%. and the fed funds rate at 4.6 peshz. that was the fed's projection or three 25 basis point cuts. the orange number there in the middle there, at 4.6 or three cuts. it's just two of the 19 officials decided to cut only twice. the median moves to the right there, which is essentially two rate cuts. for the fed, it comes down to a question of how to think about the past couple of months of inflation, are they a sign of a stall in the progress or just noise? is the progress expected for this year delayed perhaps into next year, which would delay rate cuts? rsm says -- is >> the future market began the year looking for 160 basis points bringing the rate down to 3.8. that's gone away. now it's just 80 basis points built in, or right abo

i want to bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman. steve, that is the headline of what the chair said today. rates are coming if the economy does as expected and what he started to say yesterday. >> reporter: yeah. i think it's very much a repeat, scott, of that. the economy is in a good place, talking about the u.s. being the best of the advanced economies, waiting to be more confident to cut rates. a lot of talk about fiscal policy for the housing market and a deep dive coming on the balance sheet. scott, i think the story here is not just powell. it's the symmetry of powell and lagarde. i think that's the bigger story here. both of them talking about the idea that they see inflation moving in the right direction. the ecb staff bringing down their forecast for inflation this year. lagarde saying pretty definitively we'll have information in april, but we'll have a lot of information in june. and that's kind of a wink and a nod for june coming. powell didn't do anything to dissuade where the market is in terms of a 75%, 73% probabilit

steve liesman joins -- good enough. >> elation throughout -- the television world. >> you are here with. tom barkin, richmond fed president. thanks for joining us around the table. takes a bit of courage to be here, right. >> face this rogue gallery here. let me start off. in an unusual place. rather than hammering you about what you think about interest rates and that which we'll get to, you started off many, many months ago with an idea about inflation. and the profound insight you brought, inflation was not about an s abstract process, somebody has to pay them and tuned into companies have ethos and culture of raising prices compared to what it used to be. where are we at now in discussions with business people? culture of raising prices still in effect right now since it causes you concern about future inflation? >> good. thanks for your nice words. i've been saying that for 30 years before covid price centers had been beating to desubmission. you really didn't have the power to increase prices and consumers had run with the expectation that prices weren't going to go up. it's very

want to bring into the conversation senior economic correspondent, steve liesman. pretty busy morning, steve. speaking to todd burke, chicago fed president austin mosby, knit it together in terms of what you discern as the current state of thinking on the fed for when, how much, and what this economy does and does not need. >> mike, i want to bring you through a little tale of the tape and show you how my general take on the fed is they are all out there being hyper gain independent and the market is, as well. i doubt you will hear anybody, -- being very dogmatic about the direction of policy. first let's take a look at the ten year. the ten year shut up this morning. people said, the comments that bark in gave us, i will play those comments in just a second, and then it came back down. let's hear first what bark in had to say. he is in no hurry to. cut >> it is an important time because the overall numbers are likely to come down over the next few months because the comps from last year went very good. it is a rounding over. we are losing those high inflation cups.

let's bring in steve liesman with results of our fed survey. >> sara, bond yields over the next couplek returns, according to respondents of the fed survey, could be lackluster. yesterday's close at 5149, so the forecast, the average forecast, is just 5246 or about 2% higher. 5448 or about 6% higher for 2025. then take a look at the outlook for the 10-year, 4.33 current down just a little bit, maintaining a sense of that 4% level. now be careful here because this group has generally been pessimistic about stocks and not necessarily right. take their forecast in that light. they are optimistic, though, on the economy with 52% believing there's going to be a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the economy. most think stocks are over priced for the soft landing scenario. see there 58% say over priced relative to the soft landing scenario compared to 24% in september which was a good call then when it wasn't as much over priced and now 27% saying under priced at 17% in december now 12%. so these are interesting numbers because back in september, their sense was pretty good about th

steve liesman is on that story for us today, because that's the big threat it appears, steve, is that the market gets itself really offsides to where the reality of the fed currently sits >> yeah, and i mean, i think a little context is needed here, which is the market came a long way back to where the fed was, but i think the fed has moved a little bit in a way the market is not giving it credit for. you mentioned bostic, and he moved from two to one cut. you have the fed governor squarely in the middle, and talked about a need to have a cautious approach to rate cuts i think looking at the dots, scott, might give you a clue as to really what was the overall tenor of the sense of the committee, and the forecast is the funds should raise in 2024, and there were a bunch of folks that said we think the if you had ought to cut more than three times. well, they came back into the middle and one of the folks went the other way as well. really this idea of three cuts hangs on by a single forecast of a single member of the 19 members of the committee so the question is has the market priced

let's get over to steve liesman who has key takeaways from this report this morning. steve?ically indecisive is the best way to think about this february jobs report likely leading the fed to keep in a wait and see mode. divide all this up into stuff from the report that looks like it's for a cut and against a cut. here's the for a cut stuff. you have the big downward revises moderating wage growth and a higher unemployment rate, up by two ticks to 3.9%. but payroll growth was still above 200,000. that's well above the run rate for the labor force growth. the annual wage growth is still above 4% and the unemployment rate still under 4%. all of that says stay on hold, i think, to the fed. what will puzzle the fed is the growing gap you were talking about between the two job surveys. i was looking at that at 8:30. the payroll report, most followed closely for jobs, 2.7 million jobs created in the past year. household, we look at for the unemployment rate, volatile month in month shows 876,000 jobs created. t the biggest gap since october 2021. in the face of that disconnect wh

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cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman with a look at what to expect. hi, steve. >> reporter: hey, courtney. it doesn't sound like the traders there are much concerned about it, but let me tell you -- no, it's what's on their mind. that's all good. results of the cnbc fed survey saw a greater chance of a soft landing but somewhat less easing from the federal reserve. it doesn't bother josh. 100% according toour fed expectations say no cut in march or may. 59% say that first cut does come in june of 2024. 52% average probability on a soft landing. the first time we've been over 50, up from 47 in january. the year-end funds rate. january 2025 the fed ends qt, that is compared to november in the past survey. forecasters have settled into cuts every other meeting starting in june. so there's march and may at zero. it bum ps up in june. you can see powell, if that's what he does, would be skirting around the elections there, not that he feels he needs to. there was concern expressed that fed officials at this meeting could forecast only two rate cuts to the n

it's not just the fed's rafael bostick getting more hawkish let's bring in steve liesman for more thatke you're very hawkish, but i don't think that's the case. you want to sum up the fact that the mark was a little bit too quick to say three cuts are coming after last week >> yeah. yeah i mean, i'll go with reporting where i think the fed is going, but wolf, it's worth pointing out two fed officials are reminding investors that there is a risk of going all in with that the fed will cut three times and start in june. lisa cook, the fed governor said a careful approach to further policy adjustments and sees only one down from two at a later start. fed chair jay powell at the press conference did talk in a somewhat dovish way with rate cuts and the committee as a whole was a touch more hawkish and not going overboard and a touch more hawkish take a look. forecasting more than the median of three cuts and just one does now and that's december to the march making projections and nine here at the median and nine forecasting and fewer than three cuts that's it. one duffisovish part was more

it seems steve liesman was there from the start of the rally. he is here with us, somehow. what a booking for us to get steve. he joins us now with more on the fed rate path. we have had hot inflation th numbers. it looks like the numbers are transitory. we are back to transitory inflation. that got us in trouble in the first place. maybe it was transitory all along. >> joe, pardon me, i'm a little on your side in terms of this being a dovish in context. i don't think it was dovish in and of itself. if you skip to the graphic i have there. look at what they did. this was the question. he upgraded the gdp and inflation forecast and downgraded employment and the funds rate is the same. three cuts are in there. this is not one person doing this. this is the collective action or collective average of all of the forecasts that were put in there, joe. that was my question. how do you do that in this context? i think becky was on to something. this was an opportunity for powell to be hawkish and maybe gain inflation credibility he didn't take it. i'm not sure why. the market took o

shaping tomorrow today. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ >>> steve liesman is back with breaking housing data. lion, in the month of february, against a forecast of 1.43. it looks like january, maybe plus or minus a little bit, but it was 1.3 million. i really think this is showing you that what happened in january was in part over the whole economy that you had some severe weather, that hurt especially in the housing market, but other areas, as well, so things came back smartly in january. permits up as well, 1.518 million for a gain of 1.9%. and single family starts, a lot of action there, 1.1 multiple, 392,000. i'll leave it there, joe, other than to say this is a good report, down in the northeast, though, down in the west, but up in the midwest and the south, in terms of the regional breakdown, but this does seem to be a bit of a snapback from the january perhaps weather-related do downturn. maybe a little bit of help from mortgage rates, we'll ask diana about that in a second. but i am interested to know whether or not this is something the broader economy will follow along with. >> okay,

steve liesman is connecting the dots for us right now and joins us with more. when you start to have number after number rack up, makes us want to take a closer look at all of it. >> it is two in a row, becky. there is risk next week in those fed protections for the economic and rate outlooks. the so-called dot plot after two months of bad inflation reports making little progress toward the fed's goal of 2% inflation. the median official in december forecast 1.4% for gdp. we are running above it, at least so far in the first quarter. core pce at 2.4%. wall street thinks that we're going to come in at just 2.8, down a tenth for the february pce. and the fed funds rate at 4.6%. the median, 2024 projection in the middle is 4.6% or three cuts. if just two of the 19 officials decide, hey, we should cut only twice, then the median moves to two cuts. it takes two to tango on this one. for the fed, it comes down to a question of how do you think about the past two months of inflation. are they signs of a stall if they have to worry about in their progress or are they ju

. >> reporter: steve liesman, from cnbc. mr. chairman, the projections show somewhat higher core inflation. they also show somewhat stronger growth. what should we infer from this notion on average rates were kept the same this year but inflation is higher and growth is higher, does it mean more tolerance for higher inflation and less of a willingness to slow the economy to achieve that target? >> no, it doesn't mean that. what it means that you know, we have seen incoming -- as as i pointed out in my opening remarks we did mark up our growth forecast, so did many other forecasters, so the economy is performing well and the inflation data came in higher as a separate matter. i think that caused people to write up their inflation but nonetheless we continue to make good progress on bringing inflation down and so. >> reporter: just to follow up, when you say that you're willing to either maintain the rate for longer what is the tolerance of the federal reserve for inflation coming in above its 2% target? >> we're strongly committe

steve liesman joins us now with more you're back. >> not a day goes by that i don't read some analysisuries that we're selling. i completely appreciate ruick's concern here that could there be a skip in the matrix and all of a sudden it doesn't work you know, it seems -- i don't know if rick is still there. it is remarkable that we're selling this number, this amount of bonds every day, but nobody believes in it, and i will say, rick, that we need to go on the record, you've been on the record, i want to be on the record as well saying, unless there's a sense that we're on a path of sanity, when it comes to the amount of -- people will buy them with the belief that something is going to get better in the future, but right now, there is no particular belief out there of any coming improvement. and that's allthe government has to do. and it's not doing even that >> steve, this is, this is by far. i've been doing this, been in the markets since 1979 listen, this is by far the scariest thing ever, because, you know, you look at where stocks are, we're toying with 40,000 on the dow. we're c

steve liesman -- >> i need to try that. >> try that. steve liesman joins us now. check it out guy name the bob weir. picture unfortunately, it's not him. kind of a common name, i think. >> i mean, my heart leapt, but, anyway, go ahead. are we restrictive, steve? >> joe, i really love the conversation you were having with rick. here's my take on things. i think the fed right now and for the last several months has been caught between the theory and the reality of what's going on in the economy. okay. theoretically the fed is way restricted. and where do you start? start by looking up what they're long-run rate is. 2.5%. the long run, essentially the neutral rate that doesn't slow down or speed up the economy. where are they now? 5 3/8. restrictive, the theory. look how the economy is working. rick can't get reservations at restaurants. i can, because the maitre'ds seem to be very kind to me. thank you all you maitre'ds out there and i bet rick doesn't have much trouble, too, actually. at any point, consumers are doing well, reasonably. economy reasonably well. jobl

morgan brennan, steve liesman will be online with the news and analysis 8:15 tomorrow on cnbc.com. >>how should you be positioning for portfolio for q2 our next guest says industrials and research why are you telling people to avoid industrials? it's a good performer. the economy looks to be on solid footing. cyclicals are flooding into the industrial sector. why don't you like it? >> look, you know eyei've been bullish on u.s. equities when i have recommendations i say where is it more achievable than not i'm recommending software, a.i., semis, health care i think industrials, part of the industrials, have high inventory, high valuation and high expectation if you do get any sign of a slowdown, you could have the double whammy on lower estimates. i think that stuff as well as other parts of the market. >> what about semiconductors, you think at 41% as a subsector, the best s&p 500 subsector to date, you don't think expectations are too high there? >> well, you know, like some of the industrials, i think what semis has is a long-term dream if you thought a year or two ago that semis g

steve liesman is there, and has what investors expect from fed chair powell. >> reporter: an interestingicy change coming but markets are looking for potential changes in the outlook that could influence policy in the direction of the old interest rates and economy. here's what the fed forecast in december versus right now. 1.4 was the gdp forecast running so far estimates 2% for the first quarter. unemployment at 4.1. running at 3.9not far from where the fed thinks we ought to be. and the core pce, 2.4 what the fed expects for the year we're running high at 2.9. with the fed funds expected at 4.6 right now there's room for the fed to cut if that remains the same. there's concerns individual members may raise their concern. it takes just two feds to be more hawkish. we'll also look at details for what's discussed to unwind the balance sheet. it's down by 1.5 so far in the past year. the cnbc fed survey looks for an average of another trillion or so to come off before the fed finishes quantitative tightening as expected in january. we'll see if that fed forecast is right from the survey.

. >> let's get to the latest inflation data did it show up a pick-up in some price steve liesman is heres context. >> i love the way the markets are going back and forth. it's a good bad report. the inflation data is not getting a lot worse, but it's not getting better and the fed worries cpi stalled at rates that showed not a lot of progress in the past couple months in the fed's battle against inflation. here are the numbers up 0.4 on the headlines that was in line with expectation up a tick from higher energy prices. headline year over year does tick up to 3.4%. the core 0.1% hotter, actually it was 0.36 rounded up and that was unchanged about 0.1 higher than expectations. core year over year does tick with base effects with prior numbers dropping out that were hotter. food unchanged. energy, there's the surge in gasoline prices on the month. new vehicles down a month. new cars up 0.5. the pesky rent did come down, down from 0.6 to 0.4% on the month. what happened to the fed probabilities? before the cpi may was at 21 and now 13. june at 70, now down to 68%. here's the question at nex

minutes away from the fed chair, the q&a on capitol hill we'll bring it to you live let's bring in steve liesmane chair allen blinder, now a professor at princeton, university in terms of the testimony so far, anything else standout to you? >> actually i want to answer carl's question because lou breene wrote a piece this morning. lou breene points out back in 1999 it was a 5,500 word statement today it's under 1,000 the reason is the transparency from the fed, they're telling us in their statement, in their speeches, interviews with us where they're going, what they're doing. so the number comes in, a couple of basis points movement in the bond market. almost unchanged in the stock market because most of what i'm seeing here has been expected. and the way i think about it is the fed chair saying you know what, i'm sleeping tonight but i still got a gun under the pillow when it comes to inflation this idea that we are attentive to the inflation risk he says the risks are balanced they're not really balanced. which is that the inflation numbers are in a place right now where they have to prove to

. >> we have more clues on what the fed is thinking, interview from steve liesman.t. over to you. good morning. >> hey, sara, good morning. here at the chicago school monetary policy for the u.s. and i have chicago fed president austan goolsbee. >> great to see you again. >> less than -- a little more than 24 hours since the pce inflation numbers yesterday. some people ready to throw it in and say inflation is reaccelerating, others saying it's an anomaly. where do you come down? >> i say one month is no months. it wasn't a great month. but it was showing something quite different than the previous seven months in a row. we just have to keep watching the inflation. i wouldn't be surprised if we found out there was a lot of noise component in it, but if we get multiple more months especially on the housing side, that's the thing that's really been weird. i mean, the goods inflation is back down to where it was prepandemic. services inflation, which we always think is a little stickier has actually come down over a longer run period, and the thing that we got to keep

of government and joel griffith, heritage foundation research fellow in economics and our own steve liesman side surprise in a very long time. so just reverse it to the mean. regression to the mean. >> rick, probably tired. up watching the state -- hate of the -- sorry. state of the union address last night, rick? >> oh, yeah. barely stay awake during the address much less -- got more rest than you think. >> all right. so, anything -- >> listen, real quick. >> go ahead. >> have to watch average workweek. okay? the hours. last week we had a big drop at 34.1. all watched productivity output per hour. an important metric to see. a lot of things skewed isn't january you'll see. see if they reverse. >> all right. rick, keep talking, because you're going to have the numbers, just can lead right into those, those numbers. we had a hot wage component of adp. will that happen again? >> yeah. no. i think that's really important, because if you consider the unemployment rate, how low it is, and you look at average hourly earnings, that 3.4 to find a -- or 3.1. find a lower one going back a number of y

. >> all right >>> breaking news from the fed steve liesman joins us with more too late now, steve to0 seconds late. all good fed chair powell before the house will say policy rate is likely at its peak, and dialing back policy for "at some point this year. does not get more specific as to times. he warns progress towards 2% inflation. been quite a bit not for sure warns of a risk of cutting too early and cutting too late the economy's made considerable progress towards the fed's objectives of low unemployment as well as bringing down inflation. on the economy, he says expanded at a strong pace and seemingly quoting the last statement inflation, the chairman said, without significant, a significant increase in the unemployment rate, the risks to employment and the inflation goals he says are moving into better balance labor market, he says, remains relatively tight though, again, supply and demand in labor he says are coming into greater balance. doesn't talk about the banking story that's working across the wires today, joe, but i expect quite a few questions on that thismorning. >>

steve liesman with a preview of what investors can expect when it comes to rate cuts.olicy expected today but markets are looking for significant changes in the outlook for both policy and the outlook from the fed. let me show you relative to those using various metrics. 1.4 is the gdp outlook. unemployment expected by the fed to end the year at 4.1. not far off of it so far, 3.9%. core pce expected by the fed. we've been running a little hotter there. two months of worse than expected inflation. the fed funds now at 5.4. the fed expected to go to 4.6. there's concern the fed raises that outlook for this year. only an upward change in two dots in the dot plot. the beginning of the fed's discussion about ending its balance sheet, unwind it more than double that balance sheet during the pandemic to nearly $9 trillion. it's down about 1.5 trillion in the past year. the cnbc fed survey for another trillion or so to come off it and that is before the fed is done with qt potentially in january. the survey asked about politics and the fed, found 73% believe it will have no in

political economy chair and senior research foley at george mason university's racoda center and steve liesmanhing that's going to jump out at you is reversal inside the ppi of what's driving it. this time it was goods, which have been experiencing deflation over the past several months. up 1.2%. while services, pretty well tame. one of the things fed is looking for up 0.3%. energy obvious driving some of that up 4.4%. take out food and energy up 0.3 and the trade services. this is the measure for profit margins. also declining 0.3%. i will say this. i think we're paying more and moor attention to the ppi because what's that's going to do, feed into the pce coming out end of the month. really that's the key to it. i think -- i'm a little less surprised than rick about the market reaction. guys i don't know if you have the january 2025 fed contract. what that shows is the market has been banking this year on less and less easing. that's going to come down to your -- sorry, come up to your right here in terms of the year-end fed funds contract, but then look where the market has been, stocks hav

. >> stl eve liesman joins us onst from the all-america economic survey looking at tiktok today whether seen as a security threat and whether americans want it banned stevethat pits national security concerns against personal freedoms. majority of americans concerned about not international security but banning tiktok hold on. divisions along tech lines banned no matter what. 20%. 20% unless sold to a chinese company. 57% supporting a ban or sale 31% say, hands off my tiktok democrat split 40-38 favor of a ban. pretty well divided within the 3.1% margin of error republicans, 60-20 for the ban large percentage you don't see don't know enough to say those squibbs on the political lines are not the big thing. look at these. 31% all want a ban 18 to 34, 48 don't wan a ban 65 and older what is that thing, tiktok let it go. those who use tiktok the most, 53% of tiktok users shouldn't be banned including 67% daily users, don't touch my tiktok and 44 percent of those use it weekly or less others say take it away. biden struggling to hold his winning coalition together and already has a problem with the young vote over the israeli-hamas war. and 32% approval righ