pleased to be joined now by austan goolsbee, president of the chicago fed.are you? >> great. listen, start off with the, getting a tally here. where are we on the countdown to cuts? are we, is it 3-2? what's the score here? >> well, who's on which team? you know i'm not allowed to talk for anyone else on the fomc. i know you're not asking me that. >> in your assessment. >> look, my assessment is -- we've been laying out-didn't i've been laying out for more than a year what are the t criteria? somewhat historic restrictiveness. the real fed funds rate highest in decades. when you want to be that restrictive, is when you feel like there's danger of overheating, or as we did in the u.s., if you get the inflation rate up too high. second half of last year, we had outstanding dual mandate performance's that is, inflation came down almost as much as we've seen in any year and we do not have the a recession. start of the year saw inflation kicking back up and trying to figure out and determine from the data, is that a sign of reoverheating, or is that just a blip?

goolsbee was on "squawk" today. we will get pce friday.re pretty mild, i would guess you could argue. >> yeah. look, i think that we have to get over the idea that anybody is going to be speaking for or against powell. g goolsbee, there was a tense moment with steve liesman where it was basically, stop asking me -- >> hypotheticals. >> right. i understand when you're in a follow-up with a law firm and the law firm is saying, we don't think you should be involved in this, you know, in the under armour suit that cost them an unbelievable amount of settlement, and you're supposed to say, well, hypothetically, let's say i was involved with kevin plank -- no. this is not a court of law, for heaven's sake. i think those conversations don't give you the clues that you would like, because the fed's dependent on the data, so let's look at the data. right now, there was a very good moment in the discussion. what do you do when you -- every time you raise interest rates, it makes it so that housing prices aren't coming down? i think the main problem

g goolsbee was just talking about that, saying he's seen certain pain in the economy.talked about pain in the agricultural sector, a rise in delinquencies, inflation is really good. we can avoid recession here, but there is some concern out there the unemployment rate was one of those. the jobless claims was another. there is reason to think about it. i'm not ready to write off the expansion here but maybe we are indeed, scott, a year after the fed hit that peak rate of 5.40 seeing the lags for monetary policy start to hit the economy, and there will be a time for the fed to move, and there is reason to worry the fed will be late here. that's why i pointed out, scott, talking to gundlach, a great interview on your part, i said the fed sounded like a ground hog that had come out of its hole in march and saw its shadow and declared six more months of inflation. the market is more like, hey, it's kind of warm out. it's kind of sunny. it's a summer weekend. i'm ready for the beach here. >> gundlach agreed with every point you made once you came out of the room and the fed

whether it's steve talking with austan goolsbee, had mary daly today. i feel like more fed speakers are coming out and talking about the risks of going too restrictive for too long. >> yes i guess you want to be a little careful with that assessment, scott. it could be true, it could be just that the fed speakers we have had have been those who have noted that and i think it's definitely become more a part of their discussion this idea that the risks are more balanced and talking up issues like the extent to which there are concerns goolsbee price today in my interview talked about the idea of needing to question just how restrictive the fed is given some of the weakness we've seen in some of the economic data not that it's all that weak, but it has definitely taken a step down those are two things to mark and then daly who just talked to deirdre bosa and also gave a speech, also talked about gathered weakness they have to watch. we're going to watch to see if the others in the parade, there's daly talking about the potential response if inflation is in

we get fed commentary from austan goolsbee speaking later on this morning at 8:30 a.m.g in amy wu silverman. amy, it has been a very, very calm on a relative basis market, that keeps hitting record highs. what gives and can it continue? >> this is a question that we have all been pondering. i've been calling this the paddling duck market. it does look calm. it looks calm on the surface. there are violent rotations underneath. we see that very much in options sentiment, docm. we see it sucking out on the call side. you are slowly starting to see the tick up of folks looking for protection. i would say, you know, it looks calm on the surface, but there is action underneath. >> it doesn't -- it is not out of the realm of reason, amy. the vix languishing around for the last several months. buying downside protection is a relatively cheap alternativeto doing something on the upside? >> it absolutely is. on a completely factual basis, the cost of protection isat historic lows. the issue is i've been saying that for a long time and i'm not the only one. it is a boy who cried w

there was austan goolsbee yesterday. do you feel like the conversation is starting to tilt towards the idea that we have to be especially careful of the risks of waiting too long to start cutting? >> maybe at the margins. we've had so many monetary pivots, it's embarrassing. it's absolutely embarrassing how often this fed has pivoted. the big mistake -- the recent mistake, big mistake was 2021 when it called inflation transitory, but let's not forget it fell in love in the fourth quarter with soft inflation numbers and embraced them fully and had to reverse again. we talked about -- you talked with liz ann earlier the market going in with six to seven rate cuts in terms of its expectation. that's because it believed the fed and the fed was saying, i love what's happening to inflation. of course, they got the shock of january, february and march. so, this fed feels burnt and, therefore, is not taking enough of a strategic view of the economy. >> why is that embarrassing. they reacted, haven't they, as they should, as the

this is from austan goolsbee. "for decisions are not about politics or elections."d the same discussion from the bank of england. how you do analysis if you don't factor in some of the biggest wildcards every market participant says is on their minds? annmarie: you can't until you have policy. maybe you can start thinking about it but you cannot say this is what we are going to do if this is this president. you also have to get the composition of congress. the optics make it very difficult. i like something barkan said. it feels like if you made a cut, you made a cut. maybe we will make a cut but after that we are in no man's land. we don't know what comes next. how do you plan for 2025? lisa: we know what comes next week, the presidential debate. the fundraising figure showing donald trump out raising joe biden for a second straight month. biden picking up $85 million, well short of the $141 million donated to trump. it's compelling that we heard from craig bell that people are trying to play catch up the mainstream corporations, realizing there's a good chance he

umich in a few minutes and later on today, goolsbee, lisa cook as well. stay with us.ting) at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. >>> watch micro strategy today pricing converts today. bernstein initiates with a target of 2890, would imply 80% upside, as they take their long long-term bitcoin target to a million dollars by. we'll get stop trading with jim in a minute. bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it. is it me... or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your peop

i think you go back and sort of in austan goolsbee camp on this. go back historically.e's plenty of straightening exercises by the federal reserve on the economy. i think it's harder to get from 3 to 2 than from 9 to 3. >> your thoughts on that, and this pce number that just came in. >> it's the number we expected. right? i mean, to me, it's -- another signal that i think larry summers is right. i think there's way too much optimism. i think a lot of people are expecting rate cuts, and i think it would be a mistake, even though it actually, if you think about it in terms of payments, that the higher the rates, the more, the larger the interest payments, the more in a way, because there's no fiscal consolidation on the side happening, the more it feels inflation. so i think it's, like -- i mean, it could help temporarily, but i don't think -- i think people are too optimistic about the prospect of many rate cuts and i think this doesn't changeance probably, the fed's calculation. they're not going to raise rates and they're going to wait, going to wait longer, and i thin