a boj policy moves.that has an effect on the yen's appreciation. then we have time between now and september. why doesn't boj take action now? i think it is better to do it now if they have some concerns about exchange rate. shery: the consensus so far has been we would see a downgrade of forecast, especially for this year, for today's meeting. wouldn't that be inconsistent with a rate hike? >> it does not make sense why boj should normalize interest rate, so that is a big issue. however, if we look at the real interest rate, it is in big negative territory, so boj can still say monetary easing, still very accommodating. still negative interest rates. shery: how you frame it, right? a reduction in easing but not necessarily putting the brakes. tell us about what we are seeing in terms of the wider economy. you don't think there is room for another rate hike. is that because we are not seeing the demand have been driven inflation that we want? >> i think it is about aging, one set of the population. it is

, what the boj has been expecting.refore, it is natural for it to hike rates. in terms of the forward guidance, it's really important that the boj underscore that the current real interest-rate is at significantly low levels. that speaks to me that the boj's intent adjust interest rates by hiking further with its update on its price out. does price outlook. if will -- price outlook. i think if a reporter asked if there's another possibility for another hike in august? i think he will say yes. >> really interesting in terms of expectations of a further hike potentially coming through in august. because some have suggested may be the press conference will be slightly dovish in terms of the language from the governor given what we saw in terms of the statement, in terms of the decision to increase rates and outlined that bond buying program. what do expect to hear from ueda in terms of more detail? do you expect to hear a slightly more dovish tone and while leave the bond buying clang until 2026 in terms of the cuts? taro

whisperer something of a boj whisperer.ve made it clear the boj does not want to disappoint this time around. also worth highlighting how this is inherently a cautious central bank and the data recently on the economy hasn't been great. >> the stakes probably have never been higher for the bank of japan meeting than this one. we have seen strengthening of positions. we see a lot of discussion that they need to reduce bond purchases. jp morgan have put out reports saying they expect a 15 basis point rate hike. so that's becoming a bit of a consensus view. and we have not seen any major -- which was unusual. we saw a media report saying -- trying to dull things down. this time, we are not seeing that. we have two days to go. it looks as though people have generally got it right or the view that the bank of japan will do something is definitely on the table. how much they are going to do is the big question for markets. >> what are you watching out for you in terms of the language in the statement? >> let's say that -- i would

avril: well, boj today policy meeting underway.nd a lot of scrutiny on the governor ahead of decision-making, hearing analysts despite the consensus being hawkish saying markets might be ahead of themselves. regardless we will watch out for reduction of bond purchases, over one to two yaz. women looking at the data and seven through 10 years, boj has most holdings concentrated in that duration. yen losing ground ahead of recalibration of the boj. japanese bonds catch a bid. let's flip the board. risk off, investors taking money off the table ahead of decisions, tech earnings, then later we will get payrolls to shape markets. nikkei is down. as we see a bleed in china and hong kong stocks china will publish global daily stop flow. making the market less attractive. let's flip the board because the other question is can japanese equities take tightening from boj? mark cranfield has been looking back. 2006-2008 and the topix declining so that both well for equities. lizzie: really interesting. thank you. now let's get to europe becaus

the consensus seems to be a hawkish boj, dovish fed.dless, the fed is what we will hear from just not so long after we hear from the boj, and this could be a aa me of policy news that could -- a double w hammy of policy news they could have affects. we also got data ahead of this. the jobless rate edged lower, lower than expectations as well, and this is still a tight labor market that we are seeing, so the likelihood of upper pressure -- upward pressure on wage growth is still there and something for investors to chew on ahead of the japanese central bank's decision. let's bring in mark cranfield. we heard from some of the guests. do you think the yen will soar? mark: what traders have got used to is after bank of japan statements come out you have them the press conference by -- you then have the press conference by the governor and that's typically where the governor of the bank of japan dampens expectations. the dollar gradually rises during these meetings and at the end of the day it's higher than where he was before the meeting be

the na 153 handle ahead of the boj decision. deaf brent trading near a six week low -- brent trading near a six-week low. the u.k. chancellor is expected to accuse the previous administration of overseeing a nearly 20 billion pound shortfall in the government's financing. we are joined by the chief executive of a think tank and former labour party mp, jonathan ashworth. good morning. i wonder whether this is necessary when you have had the office for budget responsibility psalms open for the public -- responsibility su,s open -- sums open to the public for all to see. >> projections for growth. what it does not do and what we don't know outside of government is the changing trajectory of the spending profiles of particular projects, of commitments that are coming in the ministers and have stayed on their desks, if you like, gathering dust, and what rachel reuse has done and hurt that rachel reeves has done and other colleagues -- and what rachel reeves has tone and other colleagues of hers in the cabinet and what we will see is

what are your expectations on the risk of the boj risking its chance to move? >> boj is in a quandary. there is inflation, but most likely they will reduce the growth target. they will not do anything, they will set the stage for september rate hike. as far as july market is worried but we don't see that. avril: do you think japanese equities can't tolerate tightening? guest: as far as growth remains ok japanese equities are not only a macro play which it has been over one or two years, companies are finally going to do what u.s. firms are accustomed to do, hey back capital shareholders, co-more efficient so eventually we could see portfolio managers reassessing because money has been made in japan. all depends on what corporate stoop and it's likely they will do what is in the interest of shareholders. avril: we are seeing the unwinding of carry on the yen this week benefiting the chinese currency. where do you see the pboc trending going ahead? guest: look, we are not experts in china, we frame china within the context of the world and u.s. versus china so if

and there is also some uncertainty about our own -- around what they boj will do. -- god boj -- the bojwill do. haidi: there was -- does this give you greater concern over china particularly as investor expectations going into the third plenum seem to be almost nonexistent? gareth: we have not been that constructive on the chinese economy for some time to throw guards to the pace and growth. we expect a lower gdp then what market consensus is. i think china has been focusing on export led growth and not domestic taking a difficult. these numbers highlight that there will not be a clear path to recovery. china remains a tactical trade for us. we are still invested in it but there will be bumps along the road. we don't expect much policy change or incentives highlighted at the next meeting. maybe the next -- may be at the end of the month. >> is a going to take this opportunity to come through with a bit of depreciation? it can do this without causing that much market stress. gareth: if the dollar is weakening they could do that if they are still focused on export led growth and the weake

we had the decision by boj hiking interest rates by 15 basis points.hat was more or less expected, also reducing the bond buying, of course. the guest we had on the show earlier of bank of america/merrill lynch said expect more choppiness when it comes to the dollar/yen and the carry remains in place. we'll get the trade numbers later on today. ahead of that i want to show you the yield picture. the german t10-year yield is trading lower. >>> when it comes to u.s. futures, this is the picture. we're expecting a bounceback at the start of the trade session. remember yesterday the nasdaq was down 1.3%. the s&p drop being i 0.5. today, again, the s&p 500 could recoup some of those losses seen up by 55 points. the dow jones seen up by 176. the nasdaq seen up by 300. for nvidia shares seeing their biggest drop since april, dropping 7%. sending the nasdaq to a two-month low, but all eyes on earnings today. >>> let's turn our eyes on italy. poste italiane posted a growth of 7.3% in the first half. the state-run postal provider raised its figure after they gre

the condition is ripe for the boj to commence with another rate hike. in our base case we think the july meeting will likely be the case for the boj to announce another policy rate hike. paul: all right, our guest from fidelity international, thank you for joining us and you can also tune or turn to your bloomberg terminal for more on this story. 02 tliv to get commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert analysts. still to come, aipac advisors say donald trump is in a better position to win the election after surviving the shooting. the ceo joins us next. and later this hour we speak exclusively to kodak investment banking about the investment spree in india. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> there is no place in america for this kind of island or any violence, ever. -- for this kind of violence or any violence, ever. in america we resolve our differences at the ballot box. and not with bullets. the power to change america should always rest in the hands of americans. paul: president biden speaking earlier from the oval office condemning the shooting in

it's not just about the fed, it's also about where the boj goes from here. the two day meeting from the boj with bond market participants, the expectation on consensus seems to be the reduction in bond purchases at the end of the month can come along with a rate hike. the boj talking to on market players seems to be a way to guide it and that it's cautiously going to be cutting back on bond purchases. it will be bearish for bond markets. we see some reprieve, a bit of a climb on japanese bonds. on the yen, still on the back foot, still around the 161 leveled against the greenback. it's about the yield divergence, david. david: that's a perfect segue to bring in mark cudmore out of our mliv team. he is executive editor there. he has been taking a closer look at the markets vicious cycle. japan finds itself in. a falling currency, maybe a stagnant economy. you have been looking at this. tell us more. mark: it's a stagnant economy for the last 30 years. consensus forecast on bloomberg predict that it will go .3%. that's the slowest for any major economy in the

the other driver we have watched in markets is the boj.week the survey of some economists from bloomberg drew one third of respondents 50 economists see a rate hike still next week while 90% expect a risk off one along with bond purchase reduction it looks like in the bond markets as well as in currencies traders are pricing that in, bracing for that, the yen is not just climbing against the greenback, it is also climbing against the kiwi dollar and g10 peers and we are hearing from asian traders that the carried trade is being on wound and it was a disappointment from tech earnings and we see the tesla profits disappointing yet again, these are some of the suppliers now coming under pressure in the region today paul. paul: thank you, avril. for more let's bring in garfield reynolds. we want to start with the tech inspired sluggishness we are seeing out of the asia-pacific today. will this continue weighing on sentiment? >> if the rest of the seven have the outcomes we have from the first two, then yes but that is the big question. what ha

a survey adding to the case for a boj rate hike as soon as this month. the euro gains as france's national rally wins the first round election, but with a smaller margin than some polls were indicating. we are exclusively from a ceo about their strategy for yen weakness in the energy transition. let's take a look at how markets are trading in asia at the moment we have the nikkei in positive territory by .25%. we have those survey numbers. pretty good. some of the readings were perhaps weaker than anticipated, but the large manufacturing index in particular was better than expected, improving on the quarter prior and seems to keep the door open for some boj tightening this month. elsewhere, we have hong kong closed, commemorating the 1997 handover. only a few points in positive territory for the shanghai. in australia, we are home to one of the market's only other on -- one of the only other underperforming markets at the moment. chinese manufacturing pmi expanded in june to the highest level in three years. that diverged again with official data reflect

that is yield yen strength going into the boj decision. which raises the issue of how high is the bar for the bank of japan to meet the expectations they will respond to the weakening and the yen the way the market is anticipating. banff the macro said the bank of japan will placate currency investors by cutting back bond buying on wednesday, but will likely stay put on the policy rate to prop up growth and foster demand. this has been the issue. the economy has been not showing the same kind of dynamism. do they have the confidence to hike rates while they lead on the balance sheet? jonathan: real division going into wednesday. jp morgan sees the boj hiking. that shows how split things are into wednesday. we have the federal reserve and the bank of england later this week. that is the story on foreign-exchange. under surveillance, israel threatening further retaliation against hezbollah after striking targets in lebanon yesterday. the move in response to a rocket strike which killed 12 children and teenagers in the bowl heights over the w

jonathan: that is ahead of us and behind us is the boj decision.you and -- on the dollar-yen, close to breaking 150. the bank of japan raising interest rates to the highest level since december 2008. the boj announcing plans to halve the pace of moan lee buybacks. any additional hikes will be data-dependent. we have the rate decision, we have the bond story, and you have the guidance. the real japan watchers, the boj watchers, say that the more important element is the guidance. it looks like today's move won't be one-off. they are ready to go again. lisa: someone asked if you see 0.5% as the ceiling on any rate hike. they didn't say yes. they bowed away from that. only 30% of market participants expected some rate hike as a base case. that gives you a sense of how much people were expecting them to signal and maybe work with the balance sheet and not make this move. other questions are, what is taking dominance in terms of the decision-making? the economy or them saying, we don't want the yen where it is. we are sick of this. we will do this ahead

the boj meeting coming up. we have the industrial products from china. we will get an update from singapore later on. we expect a pop at the start of the trading session with the s&p 500 up and the nasdaq seen up 77 points. i want to show you the close as well. on friday, we did see the rally on the back of the pce data. dow jones industrial average is up 1.6%. s&p 500 adding 1%. the nasdaq bouncing back after the weakness we saw in the course of the week. i want to show you the weakness. the nasdaq after the disappointing numbers from tesla and alphabet, nasdaq is off 2% for the week. we saw the continued rotation out of the tech stocks into the russell 2000. i want to show you the russell 2000 for the week. up 3.41%. year to date, that index is up by roughly 11%. >>> it is set to be a busy week on the monetary policy front with the three central banks set to discuss interest rates. silvia. >> i want to take you to the monetary policy. it will be a busy week. i want to start looking at the federal reserve stateside. we expect the fed to keep rates on ho

haidi: perhaps more significantly than for most other central banks, the boj.of a quick pivot or action could we see once we have a bit more certainty from the fed, from the boj? eddy: i think the boj caught some investors by surprise by not intervening when dollar-yen reached that 160 mark level again. our suspicion is that the central bank is really trying to reserve their firepower ahead of the fed rate cut that is expected to come through sometime this year. we expect the bank of -- japan to perhaps hike in july. what really matters is that, should the fed embarq on the rate cutting trajectory, that should lead to a more sustainable strengthening of the dollar. haidi: markets have proven to be good at ignoring geopolitical risk. will that be a major driver going into the second half? eddy: i think geopolitics and u.s. elections, we are getting questions surrounding it. i believe it will trigger some market volatility. including asia assets. if you think about it, should trump win a second time, he's talking about imposing 60% tariffs on china. that would cr

the boj is one of the few central banks in the world that is not cutting. it is normalizing policy in an unprecedented way and dismantling the abenomics type of policies from a couple months ago. we do expect a bit of a recovery when the fed starts to cut. paul: we want to talk about more about the boj in a few minutes, but talking about election risk, particularly of the u.s. donald trump will accept the nomination officially for the republican party at the end of the week. when he speaks, obviously there implications here if a second trump presidency manifests around rates, inflation, spending plans. what are the risks for foreign exchange around this? >> actually apart from this candidacy, we also have to consider the congress makeup. a lot of the policies that could change the direction of the u.s. economy and the dollar requires what we call a clean sweep. a lot of people are focusing on tech policies given some tech provisions expire next year. so if we get a full extension, maybe the soft landing the u.s. economy is heading towards can change directi

the yen surges on speculations of the boj will raise rates. president biden speaks for the first time since ending his reelection campaign, telling voters it is time for younger voices to take over. reports say barack obama will endorse kamala harris for the white house. pres. biden: i have decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. it is the best way to unite our nation. tom: it is a $2.5 trillion thursday, that is the market cap of firms reporting on the busiest day for european earnings. results from roche, nestle and more. we go to nestle with the results, the focus of audit volumes, pricing and margin as well. in terms of the latest results, align, nestle seeing four organic revenue of at least 3% for nestle. it had seen growth of around 4%, so it is downgraded its outlook in terms of full year organic revenue to an increase of 3% from a view of around 4%. it sees underlying eps growth and mid to single digit range. in terms of 1st avenue sales, 45 billion swiss francs just a little below estimates, underlying

the fed and boj strong on wednesday.ly facing a moment of truth as a currency holds onto an advanced about 5% against the dollar. a stretch of cibc writing this. should the bank desist from tightening as we assume. we would be mindful of dollar-yen retracing half the recent correction. we are reminded of a correction back to 156.90. jeremy we have seen massive swings in dollar yen the last couple of days what do you think has been going on. is this about fundamentals looking to the possible rate hike or is it something more than that? jeremy: there are a couple of things in play in the context of this move. we've seen access yen short positions. some of those have been partly compromised but i think also at the same time we see increasing speculation of late regarding the prospects of a boj hike into next week's meeting so in the context of yesterday's mood when we traded below 152. we were trading in the region of nine basis points higher in terms of pricing for next week. amplification in terms of boj assumptions. they

avril: do you think the comments from trump changed the calculus from the boj?k: i think you provided a helping hand from the minister of finance, they were trying to defend 160, now they've got additional help from trump. it does open space for them. the irony is it makes them less urgent to tighten policy. as we approach the end of july of japan meeting they might feel more comfortable and may be just to do a small step instead of a bigger step. i think the problem is, is it time to crush the dollar-yen. i would be cautious because there's a lot of shorting in the market, but if it gets close to 150i would think markets would have a strong interest. avril: it sounds like there will be more of all -- more vol. teck: don't forget the fundamental driver for the dollar-yen is if we would see a sustainable downtrend, it has to come with a fair cutting cycle. a market cut from the fed looks reasonable, two cuts this year and about five this year -- next year, but if trump wins, we might have to think about the cuts next year. for we get the clarity of the u.s. elect

looking ahead to the boj decision next week. up .2%. pound in focus as we lead up to the boe decision on august the first. are they getting closer to cutting? let's get to the earnings story around the auto sector. wrist 80's earnings plummeting 28% and the second quarter. sales of its passenger ev's dropped sharply and demand in china weaker. the china story echoing through the earnings results. a disappointing week for automakers. let's bring in all over croke. walk -- oliver crook. >> we got the pre-release from mercedes earlier. what we look for is they are not playing the volume play. they are trying to play the higher-margin play. sales volumes down 6%. what they did maintain was the return on sales, more or less in-line what was expected from the market. year on year, revenue down 4%. net profit down 16%. these are not good numbers. they were all beads from what the market -- beats from what the market was expecting. the analysts had low expectations. they adjusted their return on sales down a little bit. they were hoping for 10%

all of that should potentially give the boj a little bit of room.you think they will hike next week? >> i think hiking rates is probably off the table. >> off the table? >> it's off the table insofar as if they look at the overall sense of where the economy is heading. the comprehensive sense of the economy. you would never roll any tightening move out. how do you manifest that and in particular, if you look at where the yen has gone right now, yen strength on the forward looking basis can actually start to bring down forward looking inflation as well. i prefer them to actually move more aggressively on qqe. the hawkish on future policy, the policy direction, but in this kind of environment and they will have a look at the fed as well to see if they can narrow the differentials. >> geoffery yu, thank you. to close out the week on "street signs," a quick check on the market. the ftse 100 up 0.9%. we had a rebound in some of the mining stocks which have seen a weakness earlier this week. the cac 40 is up 0.9%. all of the choppinesses coming from the l

that picture has reversed as we see the carry trade back in trade going back to the boj meeting todaynd it is advancing on the nikkei. when it comes to the chinese markets, it is flat at the end of the trading session. we did get numbers up 3.6% on the industrial numbers in june. dom. >> carolin roth, thank you very much for that. no >>> now to a developing story. israel retaliating after the strike in the golan heights region that killed 12 people, including teenagers and children. last last night, israel defense forces say they hit seven targets deep inside lebanese territory after the israeli security cabinet authorized strikes a day earlier. the militant group hezbollah denied responsibility for the at attack. the deadliest one on israeli civilians since october 6th. we are watching oil prices right now currently just about .2% lower for u.s. benchmark west texas intermediate and ice brent crude. $77 for wti. >>> this week could be a huge test for the markets overall which could determine the path forward for the stock market in the near term. more than one-third of the dow indust

my previous guest on the show said that a rate hike by the boj is now off the table. also want to show you what europe is up to. it was a choppy week of trading. we are closing out the week with a couple of gains. the cac 40 is up 0.9%. bouncing back after the luxury weakness. we'll get to that in a second. the dax is up on 0.2%. we are on the two-month lows for the european equity losses despite the bounce back today. we have been watching some earnings out of the luxury sector today. i want to show you exxotica. they had a jump in the second quarter. the ray ban company saying meta is considering a stake in the company. meta post ed a 13% rise in the second quarter as ail regions grew by double bdigits. hermes blowing it out of the waters in terms of the share price. back over to you. >> carolin, thank you. carolin roth in the london new newsroom. >>> we turn back to the u.s. and the investors prepare for the latest read on inflation before the fed meeting next week. core pce is expected to remain unchanged after inflation falling for the first time in four years. t

the boj is very much in focus.ing plan, rate decision tomorrow. 14 of 48 economists predict the boj board will raise interest rates. a consensus ultimately still expecting rates to remain unchanged. there is a group of economists who are looking for the interest rate hike tomorrow. lisa: the issue to me that i wonder how much is baked into the market, what kind of disappointment will get played out in markets with respect to a weakening in if the bank of japan doesn't make a move? can the bank of japan offset in action with the idea possibly not buying as many bonds through the quantitative easing program? to me, that highlights how high the stakes are at a time when you're seeing some strength, finally, which is a huge relief to authorities who have been talking about this. jonathan: the yen strength over the past few weeks, weakness this morning, 152.84. the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and signal a september rate cut. tom shapiro of gtis partners, global real estate investment firm, w

traders seem to be bracing for a boj rate hike next week. that's despite bloomberg learning from sources that some policymakers see fit for a skip next week because of weak consumer spending. another potential driver for the yen's u.s. political uncertainty. that could prompt buying of the yen as well. tom: thank you very much indeed for a check on the asian markets. looking ahead to that key decision for the bank of japan next week. this is the wealth manager of a private bank, julius baer naming a new ceo, naming stefan bollinger as the new ceo. he will start his new role at no -- role no later than february of 2025. up around 60%. some breaking lines from the company that is a focus of a takeover bid from bvea. sab net income coming in at 43. it's a beat for sabadell. so far, they have rejected the offer. it is a beat in terms of the second-quarter net income for that spanish lender at 483 million euros. let's get back to u.s. politics now and the latest in terms of the prospects of vice president harris, who has secured enough delegates

the nikkei helped along by the financial related names as expectations of a boj rate hike potentially helping profitability. in south korea, the drag coming through from automakers stocks. hong kong back from a public holiday. the hung saying is recovering -- the hong kong index recovering some lost ground. the dominant concern for these chinese mainly markets is still about the economy. the stock market has been badly beaten up along with the housing market but the outlier is what we are seeing in chinese bond space. we saw that rally yesterday taking those yields to record lows. the pboc was coming through with an announcement without the bonds raised speculation that it could go on to sell securities to curb the rally in chinese bonds. for context, it does not want bonds to be moving in one direction. today, we are seeing that rally resuming in chinese bonds. they have not just been outperforming versus other asset classes. there's also the outperformance versus global peers. this is underpinned by concerns related to the chinese economy and how inflation in china -- the picture th

don't forget, this week is when consultations with the boj with institutional investors are on the waykind of suss out what they feel about the plan to address bond purchases. it sounds like they've been asking for pretty hefty reductions. but i think there is a bit of a muted reaction to what powell set overnight. tom? tom: and of course, what powell has been talking about of course overshadows too much what is happening in the asian markets, particularly further lines in the sand you outlined. if the fed goes, may be that gives the pboc some breathing room avril hong the giving us detail on the asian markets. jay powell has been careful not to offer a timeline for rate cuts in comments to u.s. lawmakers yesterday but he says labor market conditions have now cooled considerably. >> the most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some further progress and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. we continue to make decisions meeting by meeting. we know reducing policy restrict to soon or too much could stall or even rivers t

got a fed decision today, the boj hikes and the dovish macrodata.ng, starbucks with a cautious consumer, and pinterest

the boj meeting next week. currently 150 four versus the u.s. dollar, up 0.5%..s. 10-year 4, 24, looking forward to dated this week with a focus on gdp, and pce, core inflation. watch for the fed on friday. $81 a barrel on brent and gold holding onto gains, 24 14 per troy ounce for the yellow metal. let's get to that turning story with a focus now on tesla, where shares slumped after the ev maker reported its fourth straight quarter of disappointing profits, pushing back as well the release of its highly anticipated robotaxi. chief executive elon musk said plans for its gigafactory in mexico are on pause. >> when you see where things stand after the election. trump has said he would put tariffs on cars produced in mexico, so it doesn't make sense to invest a lot in mexico. if that is going to be the case. tom: let's bring in bloomberg's asia transport reporter danny lee in hong kong. has his finger on the pulse of all things tesla. talking about delaying the buildout of his mexico facility and yet he is a financial supporter of donald trump leading up to novembe

the yen spiking after the reuters report after the boj meeting next week was a close call with the centralank considering a hike. the nikkei 225 with the yen strengthening down 2.5%. the hang seng off 1.7%. let's get more on the markets and the pboc with jp ong from cnbc asia. jp. >> reporter: good morning, carolin. not a great session for thursday. you see the sheen of red. we start off in japan with the tech selloff with tech stocks listed in tokyo. the stronger yen is now through 152 against the u.s. dollar. it is partly because of the safe haven play favoring the japanese currency. it is too close to call whether or not they will hike rates. this yen strength will move to hold off on hiking rates if the yen holds water in the next couple of days. we did see tech shares in japan fall. we saw nissan almost wipe out the operating profit on the year on year basis in the second quarter. that weighed on carmakers. this translated to south korea. there is a question if it will boost markets. it didn't matter this day at least. we saw the sk hynix reporting. we saw hyundai moving in the red. y

question, 159 right now and we lead up just a couple of weeks away from that next meeting from the bojulation they could raise weights, that currency. brent $85 a barrel, and go down 3/10 of a percent at 2408. the u.s. has announced a new 220 five million dollars weapons package for ukraine aimed at shoring up the country's air defense system. the package comes as deadly russian missiles and drones continue to hate ukrainian cities. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's kriti gupta, thank you for joining us in the studio. walk us through what this package means. there's been a flurry of announcement in tears -- an air defense systems. what are the consequences and the implications, how significant is the support? likes in terms of actual machinery deployed to ukraine, put this in the context of the previous things that have come out. $60 billion of ukrainian a relative to 220 5 million specifically from the biden administration using a levy that is only used for executive powers. in the broader context, it's far more symbolic than actually helpful when it comes to that ukrainian a story

that's why we expect the boj to upgrade the inflation outlook which is followed by the rate hike.hat is the positive news for the companies who can sell at higher prices. >> great to have you here. thank you very much for your insight. your forecast is the bank ofpol rate. thank you again. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," we will hit the campaign trial and the inflation reduction act may hit in the strangest appliplace. we'll be right back. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. so you're like a guru now? oh here it comes— join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next. my name is caron and i'm from brooklyn. i work for the city of new york as a police administrator. i oversee approximately 20 people and my memory just has to be sharp. and i realized, my memory was just changing. i did my own research and i decided to give prevagen a try. my memory b

since the market seems to be bracing for a rate hike, along with boj bond purchase reductions come later japanese conglomerate hitachi says it is ready to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on acquisitions. the chief financial officer told us exclusively that the focus of the deals will be on ai and green energy. >> we have three major of sectors at hitachi, including our business sector, in which we develop software. we are developing software for our customers and we do the programming and coding, but we have learned through various demonstrations last year and this year, that on average we can improve efficiency by 30% and we are trying to incorporate this into our projects. this will reduce the time and people needed for project development. if we had more human resources, we would meet customers' need better, but if the productivity of coding is increased by ai, we can take more orders and help customers looking to digitize operations. >> which is why you are tracing 50,000 employees for generative ai as one of your business strategies. when do you expect this to start paying off

there seems to be a sense we might see a little typing but if the boj does nothing, what is the flooren? mark: we saw them disappoint the markets twice in april and especially in june. it would appear they were gearing up to tighten interest rates and reduce their bond purchases. they pushed that ahead to the meeting at the end of the month. the onus is on the bank of japan convincing traders they want to see a stronger yen. we have heard verbal reports to that effect but we have not seen any action. that is why you are seeing dollar-yen reach those levels in the past few weeks but the combination of the bank of japan surprising traders with something more hawkish, and the threat there would be an intervention from the ministry of finance, if you put those together, and the yen could gain traction, we might see surprising strength, but traders are not fully prepared for it. you are getting a little yen gains today, that is more of what they see out of jerome powell. in order for that to be sustained, it is up to the bank of japan to do their part. paul: we have to talk about the u.k.

the boj, a rate hike, would be a big surprise that is not really priced in.ate hike by the boj, that would send the end even higher and it's, of course, beginning the downward trend is finally broken. hard to make book on overall what it's going to mean for the trade weighted dollar. probably comes out as a wash. the one central bank that i think should be interesting to all of us is the one that resides next door to the usa which is the bank of canada. and the bank of canada has not just cut rates once, it's cut rates twice and as i like to say, you know, can dada is the 51st state. if you actually read -- if you read the commentary on the u.s. economy out of the bank of canada their view, not just that but read the beige book. i know that we get the gdp numbers and i think there was a lot of nonrecurring factors that supported that 2.8% upside surprise, but, you know, the fed is telling us all along they're listening not just to the government data, but to the business contacts and as i read the last beige book, i mean it revealed that basically half the u.

we get boj decision tonight, as well. but tomorrow, it's really how much does powell set up the possibility of a september cut, and also, just how much is the fed really focusing on the labor picture as we do see that market continue to soften? >> we'll see. >> all right, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. >>> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a massive fight of earnings. microsoft shedding about $200 billion in market cap after its latest results. pinterest dropping more than 20% at its lows. we're dialed into the calls and more. we'll bring you all the trades. >>> plus, the fed in focus. we're counting down to the central bank's next decision coming tomorrow. and what it could mean for rates and the markets. >>> later, jetblue shares take off after posting a surprise profit. merck with its worst day in three years. and a staples stalwart losing three months of gains in one day. i'm m

sonja: the boj is in a difficult position that they have maneuvered themselves into. signal that they will continue to higher grade. they have talked about changing the asset purchase program and they have made adjustments. the problem is they do all these things and then talk it down. they have taken action but the words are so debited -- dovish that all the market takes is that they are expansionary. you might have to intervene again and it is pushing in that direction but that will only achieve temporary wrist bite. what they need to do is to be more aggressive in their actions at the upcoming meeting at the end of july. i fear, given the track record that they will not do this. and then fundamentally the yen remains vulnerable. it is only treating the symptom but not the underlying problem. caroline: that is tougher the japanese consumer. it has been so great speaking with you. stay well and have a wonderful rest of your week. coming up, president biden getting a vote of confidence from summoning his party. we take a look at the presidential election and who, if a

one hike at the boj, does it change things? >> absolutely not. everyone saying be humble?because everyone has gotten it wrong and you could make a strong argument for this market being ready for surging inflation with this being a pause before something more significant if you could make a legitimate argument that we are seeing softening that will get dramatically worse later in the year. you could make either argument looking at both sectors and i would believe you. i understand the humility and the difficulty coming up. jonathan: i don't know about anyone who hasn't been humbled at some point. under surveillance, top stories, the first one is kamala harris closing in on the democratic nomination with an unofficial telling from the associated press, getting the required number of delegates to seal the top of the ticket. in milwaukee, the rnc held the convention last week. annmarie: she will be in and out of that state a lot over the next 100 or so days but what i found interesting was not so much her showing up, but senator tammy baldwin showing up. she wrote a letter a f

got a fed decision today, the boj hikes and the dovish macrodata.ur road map begins with a flood of corporate results, microsoft, boeing, starbucks with a cautious consumer, and pinterest tumbling on weak guidance. >>> we are awaiting the fed. futures are rallying on this last trading day of july as investors seek new clues for the rate cut path ahead. >>> this hour, we're going to be joined by the ceos of amd and t-mobile. we're going to break down the quarters with both, talk about the a.i. boom, the state of the consumer, oh, a lot of other things as well, carl. >>> let's begin with microsoft this morning, beating earnings and revenue estimates, but this miss on cloud a bit pressuring the stock in the premarket. certainly on the call last night, satya nadella did discuss azure and capex. >> the azure a.i. growth, that's the first place we look at. that, then, drives bulk of the capex. basically, that's the demand signal because you got to remember even in the capital spend, there is land and datacenter build but 60-plus percent is the kick. that

bank of japan in the currency market for third time this year on thursday for a forecast estimate the boj tune of about ¥3.5 billion, $22 billion. the figures indicate their authority a buildup of young shorts. the yen strength and sharply from around one versus the dollar to 157 but it is back above 159 this morning. the world's biggest hedge funds are often on the best starts of the year. thanks to a tech lead bull market and successful quant strategies. tech focused equity funds lake street and whale rock lead the path of the first half. as a whole, a multi-managers made 6%, that's her second-best start to the year. david -- data showed. lagging macro funds both posting losses for six months. food delivery in new york city has become a luxury. the city agency report found new yorkers have paid nearly 60% more in delivery fees in the state since minimum wage laws went into effect last year. customers paid an average of $20 million a week in delivery fees in the first quarter of this year. that's a 58% increase year-over-year. delivery couriers saw their overall earnings grow even as tip

going into the boj where there is a question mark hanging over that committee.lisa: the u.s. is having an increasing urgency of for lower rates at the time the bank of japan is considering higher rates. that said, you put it perfectly this morning when you said we are seeing a big global unwind of consensus positions. this is one of them. big tech is another one. how much is this profit-taking at a time when valuations have gotten pretty elevated versus something that has legs? jonathan: is it something you want to step in front of? this is something we asked max kettner. the aggressive stuff -- pretty aggressive stuff. our top story, president biden framing his decision to end his reelection efforts as a bid to reunify the nation. in an oval office address, biden also recognizing the need for younger voices in office. i think we can agree it was the beginning of what should be a graceful exit from 50 years of public service. there was nothing graceful about some of the scenes taking place in the nation's capital yesterday afternoon. at a time when a very polari

it reminds me of japan, again, like 70% of all of the etf assets for the boj, now that china is stepping be a similar situation here. over time they tend to win because they are cheap, easy, all the reasons people like them in the u.s., but they are slowly growing over there, for sure. caroline: compared to the stratospheric growth in the u.s., maybe that has slowed but more broadly, etf's are on fire this year. >> yes, if you look at the $400 billion of etf flows this year, every month the monthly flow has been above the average. the second half tends to be bigger than the first half, typically. especially when the markets are up. my colleague did a study to look at spy. every time spy returned 10% in the first half in averaged 28% on the year. a good sign that the second half would be big. if it's big and the flows maintain and above monthly average, we could see $1 trillion in etf flows, the all-time average. investors, look, bull markets are good for flows, bear markets are good for market share. people will be buying the chief beta stuff and the exotic stuff, like the bitcoin etf an