alex castillo knows point, we checked the numbers very carefully, he is exactly right, give you some in pennsylvania minute. the other thing is in the early turnout voting, this year mr. trump said go on and vote early, 16 and 20 he said don't, wait until election day. so democratic turnout is down, republican turnout is way up. that is cutting -- >> sandra: you are optimistic? >> i am cautiously optimistic. i don't think my forecasting is better than anybody else's, but i think those are important factors. another factor, i don't think the pollsters necessarily can count the expansion of mr. trump's working-class coalition. very important point. they are basing it on 2020 and 2016. so look, he's got blacks, hispanics, white, working-class people. he's got young people. he's got young blacks, young hispanics. i don't know that they can account for that because these are relatively new developments for trump. i mean, this is why he's been playing offense and kamala has been playing defense. you've got other things. you've got, look, how do you calculate elon musk in pennsylvania? i mean, the guy is t