it is widely expected - might get next year? it is widely expected to - might get next year?idely expected to cut. might get next year? it 3 widely expected to cut interest rates for the third and final time of the year, and the market is pricing in a quarter point cut to the interest rate but what is more uncertain is the policy outlook for 2025, so investors will be watching out for the comments, jerome powell in his presser, and the economic outlook released alongside the decision, so indications about future decisions on interest rates and many expect this to be a hawkish cut, meaning we will have a pause in cutting interest rates injanuary have a pause in cutting interest rates in january and at least less commitment to cutting them, this is because of the inflation picture which is proving stickier, inflation at 2.7%, above the 2% target, and the labour market remains robust. . ' . , robust. that difference will be the focus for _ robust. that difference will be the focus for the _ robust. that difference will be the focus for the federal - the focus for the federal res

inflation has come lower than expected. inflation would rise what has risen less than expected.ve had a lot of comments from governing council members in recent weeks arguing for continued gradual approach to easing. 25 would be the way. especially as we near the neutral rates. if the bank goes for a 50 jump. tom: you have a stare at the neutral rate will be? >> it's highly uncertain where the initial rate is. some members on the governing council has argued it's close to three, some argue it's close to two. we are growing -- going straight down the middle and we expected to be two point 5%. given that the neutral rate is around 2.5 percent and that we think inflation closer to the second half of next year will come up, we have less cuts factored in for 2020 five and most consensus and markets. tom: it's expects up 2% by june. went -- where you see rates ending in the ecb? >> we have the terminal rate at two point 25%. we have a cut in january, a cut in march and a cut in june such as that the ecb will stop. we have inflation coming above target at the latter half of 2020 five.

investors around the ecb and fed expectations -- the expectation is that the fed will go again. currently, yields of 431 on the 10 year. euro-dollar below the 10 five level. a little softness coming through from the euro on the expectation that there will be further cuts. gold, 2688 dollars. let's look at the asian session. the kospi almost entirely wiping out the losses that came from the back of the botched decision on martial law from the south korean president. it is up .5% on the session so getting back up to the gains were at least wiping out the losses since the shock announcement from the south korean president and an impeachment could come through during the weekend which could lead to some political certainty or lack of political uncertainty. we will watch the events over the weekend. broadly across the benchmark in asia, it is tied in with the story from china. a lack of detail coming from the work conference in terms of the economic meeting though it is expected that the deficit target could be widened to a year. that number should come through in march. the nikkei o

it and what are we expecting to hear? , i, and what are we expecting to hear? , i, i, i, i, hear? it is one of those annual offences that _ hear? it is one of those annual offences that the _ hear? it is one of those annual offences that the prime - offences that the prime minister always has in his diary. a black tie dinner, possibly even white tie, attended by dignitaries of the city of london, the financial district of london. traditionally this is the moment when the prime minister makes a big speech about foreign affairs, quite often we see some policy moves in a speech during this event, but we are not going to get that today. we've already had a bit of a briefing from the prime minister's official spokesperson. i think what we will here is an assessment of where britain is after 11t years of the conservatives being in the driving seat for foreign affairs. it is likely that the prime minister will attack the conservatives for neglecting britain's reputation in the world as a partner of —— other countries can work with and trust. something the prime minist

.— weather is expected.e should take _ weather is expected. people should take this _ weather is expected. people should take this very - should take this very seriously, this is a red alert for vast parts of the country, we've just been through a very difficult time in terms of flooding, red means there is a potential danger to life so people need to take this seriously and not to travel unless it is necessary. areas covered by _ unless it is necessary. areas covered by the _ unless it is necessary. areas covered by the red _ unless it is necessary. areas covered by the red warning i unless it is necessary. areas i covered by the red warning are forecast to see wind gusts of up forecast to see wind gusts of up to 90 mph or more. many people are still recovering from storm that a few weeks ago which caused if extreme flooding. which caused if extreme flooding-— which caused if extreme floodinu. �* , ., , flooding. it's the last thing we need. _ flooding. it's the last thing we need, at _ flooding. it's the l

but what can we expect your hour by hour forecast? i put this to about 715, and you notice the bulk of this rain is still fairly north. and then if i advance this into the overnight hours, that's where we begin to see the heavier pockets of rain picking up. but that wind advisory will officially go into effect starting at 7 p.m. for all of the highlighted areas that you see here. so pretty much almost the entire bay area, with the exception of far areas up through ukiah. but we could see some gusty winds upwards of 50 plus miles per hour. so the concern for those trees is very much real, even though we're not expecting to see a ton of rain in areas south of the golden gate bridge, you've got to remember a lot of those root systems might still be tampered with from previous storm systems that we've seen, so we could see some of those impacts heading into overnight tomorrow, along with the potential for some power outages. and the active weather pattern is going to remain in through saturday, but we do get a break from that on sunday be

noun farm payrolls expected add to economy in november, if unemployment rate expected to inch to 4.2%arkets, or window into what is going on with jobs or what is means for federal reserve? and the cuts in rates we are expecting. charles: intriguing most wall street firms say stronger the number better it is good news will be good news because that means the market not relying on fed to be accommodative per se the rally you want don't want a rally presented indicates on bad news bad news for the fed going to pump a bunch of money into system that is not organic growth what we are rooting for that happens from time to time, the non you and i both know something of guess work i am more focused on wages, weekly hourly, weekly hourly, how much time people work in a week how many people coming back to labor force. as far as overly number oh, really important too is how many folks fill out survey, this is really, the number itself so awful in part because businesses establishments not filling out on time few not filling out at all a specious nebraska fewer that fill out survey less impactful

>> the euro area special bank expected to deliver its forthright cut. we're live in frankfurt ahead of today's ecb decision. and maximum pressure on iran. donald trump national security advisor vows to bring back the policy. the president-elect invited china's president to his inauguration. ♪ tom: happy thursday, the european equity markets closed higher yesterday and the u.s. session was solid with the nasdaq 100 closing up 1.8%, a fresh record for the tech heavy index. notching up gains as well, companies like tesla and alphabet led the surge. it was a tech heavy day on wall street. we reflect on the fact that cpi and the u.s. long thin for traders, that cut next week from the federal reserve is the expectation as cpi came in line. the ecb expected to cut, what is the trajectory into 2025? s&p futures softer, down .10% after the gains of yesterday. nasdaq 100 futures also lower by 26 points. let's look cross asset, the focus on the treasury curve as we digest inflation data, largely unchanged on the 10 year. euro-dollar 105, little softness for the bl

what are we expecting into 2025? >> we expect eminently some cuts in interest rates, the reserve requirement ratio. those things have probably been priced and by the market but chinese policymakers have signaled more measures to come but those will be mostly for supporting growth in the next year and what is noteworthy from last week's meeting of top official thing measures to boost domestic consumption and used strong language on that front. private demand remains very weak and because of potential headwinds to china's exports in the next four years, boosting domestic consumption has become more important and a focal point of policymaking. >> alan wong on the data out of china and what it could mean in terms of the policy response as we continue to look for the details. can push a budget through a divided parliament. our correspondent joins us. what does that mean then for the deficit next year and what could the special law mean for the government's finances? what are the financial and budgetary implications they w

governor ueda expects price trends to rise gradually.ties remain high for the economy and monetary policy depends on economy and inflation. to raise rates if economic outlook is realized. this is important. real rates remain at a low level. to what extent does the hawkish pivot from the fed force the boj's hands, given yen weakness when it comes to january? >> judging by what you just read out, it doesn't seem like a good old boj, not to be rushed into any sort of decision. with the yen already weakening through 155 before today's decision -- or to 155 from the boj, the door was wide open if they wanted to raise rates now. the impact on markets especially the currency would be unlikely to be that pronounced. they are waiting until they are absolutely certain that inflation is entrenched, that wage growth will continue in the japanese economy. as long as they don't give strong signals that they will be hiking soon, the more markets assume this gradualist approach, the more markets will price in weaker yen relative to the u.s. dollar in pa

we expect solid us ener: prices? we expect solid us energy production - prices?duction growth l prices? we expect solid us i energy production growth for oil and natural gas. that said, policy is not a mean driver of that view. we think in the short term oil production is driven by prices and shareholder objectives of energy company. over the medium run living regulatory easing could support us energy production if the government were to lease out more offshore energy field projects. in other news adidas has its headquarters in germany has been raided by authorities as part of a tax investigation it is related to customs with imports from october 2019 to this was widjaja's it is cooperating with authorities in providing them with necessary documents and information. general motors has announced it will stop funding the development of the crews are self—driving taxi. the company pointed to the increasingly competitive market as a reason for the move. its competitors include tesla which unveiled its uber taxi in october and waymo. the boss of ferrari says it will a

we should expect that to continue.arket is priced a little high and we will have to see if the lower corporate tax rate you mentioned or overfed cutting —— the fed cutting and de—is made that reasonable. all de-is made that reasonable. all other de—is made that reasonable. all other things you mention is positive for stocks, so my question is, you mention stocks are looking a little overvalued, our near our way of the market resting yellow ——7 that is almost impossible, when you get a market like this, they always say trend is your friend, the trend has been positive, there has not been a lot of bad news. the political backdrop, the economic plans are helpful. i'm not sure we are helpful. i'm not sure we are at the top yet but something always tends to come around at some point, whether it is earnings disappointment or something, that can challenge that trend. but when you get a market like this moving the way it is and has as much momentum, it is hard for me to say we should all be participating. me to say we should a

i expect this election _ stability? i expect this election in _ stability?even - stability? i expect this l election in seven weeks' stability? i expect this - election in seven weeks' time to provide a new government, but a new government may be stable, but probably, as from the beginning ofjune or the end of may. that is the normal procedure after an election. you will have a coalition government, which will be composed of two or three different parties, meaning germany has been paralysed in some important areas for more than 1.5 years now, because the previous coalition was unable to find compromises, and now we will see an ongoing paralysis in important fields, especially when it comes to the newly elected president trump in the us, and the russian war against ukraine. europe will have to speak with one voice and make clear statements, speak with one voice and make clearstatements, but speak with one voice and make clear statements, but i'm afraid the german government is not in a position to lead or pronounce clearly a certain course. i have just looked

the difference is the expectations by wall street now. the expectations by investors are that companies are going to continue to beat and raise and beat and raise and i think that we've already seen a growing skepticism, dare i say, from nvidia shareholders which is part of the reason that the stock has been trading sideways for a little bit now to bryn's point. i think that in tech specifically, megacap tech in next year going forward, i think that investors' expectations are just weighing so heavily on these names that any earnings growth that we're seeing them be able to show at these quarterly reports are not going to be meaningful enough because investors are going to be looking over on the other side of the fence at other companies that are still delivering double-digit growth [ inaudible ] quarter by quarter. >> last question, maybe i will get a bryn reaction and understand why in a minute, bitcoin. 92,600. your -- one of your predictions is that coinbase is going to be added to the s&p in the first quarter of 2025. >> what we're s

markets are expecting it. >> can we go back. everybody who says cut, we expect it. just looking at the data, would you still cut? >> i think i would largely because inflation has been a little bit ier, there are signs the labor market is moderating. it is healthy. the fed wants to keep it that day. you have seen continuing jobless claims tick up a little bit. there are signs, i think, the labor market is continuing to cool and the fed doesn't want to stay too long and result in any type of unnecessary tightening. >> let's talk about the debt. $28 trillion total marketable debt, but $36 trillion in total public debt. it starts to add up after a while. >> it does. as we were mentioning earlier, it starts to add up quickly with elevated interest rates. interest costs comprises a larger share of the total amount of debt outstanding and that causes the debt outstanding continuing to grow. >> is that on the fed's mind? >> i think they are focused on labor and inflation. certainly they are aware of the total amount of debt that is outstanding. i don't think they will cut r

so i mean this expect this what now, what do you expect from the new need? improvement of education. he's fix free the injustice because doesn't say it was about the system here and see joe. all that's they improve the state of florida upstairs and we hope everything gets better to be. thank you. we also have well this lady also. she wants his daughter to tell us about her feelings, either in a very good english shipping. tell us how do you feel about today? well, i feel like everyone else extremely happy. our team has finally become true and people are very heavy on the account. we put never come up like this and celebrate the times with the without the base for percent guys. sorry, it's so great. so big for everyone. and what do you expect from the new data? we expect them to be fair to be we are waiting for just the cereal because, you know, as everyone knows, we have different groups of people. we have the love everyone in the same uh, you can have maybe a job. another per, i would a very good job. one other person when i go every day, going to have the

it's really challenging _ expectations. it's really challenging and - expectations.for the retail industry. the cost of living crisis continues to affect spending and issues with supply chains is also still impacting retailers. one clothing brand though that seems to buck the trend is inditex, which owns brands such as zara, pull & bear, and bershka. the company will report its third quarter results injust over an hour�*s time and they should show steady growth. but is there a new challenge on the horizon? are consumers changing their habits and moving on from fast fashion. last month we heard from the boss of the company behind global fashion chain uniqlo, who told us he thought fast fashion has peaked. translation: i don't think there is translation: | don't think there is a — translation: i don't think there is a future _ translation: i don't think there is a future for- translation: i don't think there is a future for fast - there is a future for fast fashion, producing close without any careful considerations which you can only wearfor one season. considerations

we will expect u.s.xceptionalism to remain in place through the first quarter of next year as the market pares back and the growth story remains robust in the first instance. i think as we move forward, we start to see the gradual narrowing with the u.s. and rest of the world. we see changes in the interest rate space. i think the market is under pricing the risk of the fed activity next year. if that starts to come through, the realization the u.s. is running an imbalance. >> no doubt that the conversations are fiscal policy are definitely growing. i would like to stay within the central bank for the time being. it is a busy day on the central bank policy. i would like to understand your thoughts going into 2025 given the different speeds of the central banks. what would you say is your top currency call for 2025? >> i think one of the most important things for 2025 is which central banks get to neutral and which ones forced to go beyond that level. the smb is the classic case where we got down to 50 ba

the economy has done better than the fed expected. better than many expected up to this point. it looks pretty robust going into next year. there is not really a reason for the fed to get much more aggressive here. you know, tap the brakes. see how things develop. if you look around and look at the economy, maybe it says that neutral is not that far away and maybe that rate was higher than everyone thought back in august, september. sonali: george, what do you think about this dynamic and the number of cuts being seen next year? george: we think that neutral is better than it was, but we don't need to be there tomorrow. the fed has to evolve with the economy. as we have seen, inflation is sticky with some very, very sort of slow incremental movement lower, so they could be a little bit patient so that the orientation is still lower, but in reality as brian mentioned, the economy is doing well. unemployment is low. the job market is holding together reasonably well, so there is no urgency to push rates reasonably lower. as i mentioned before, the prospect of material change on t

tamika economy we expect? for the week -- to meet the economy we expect or do we expect more? recalibration days behind us and we are in the next phase, and that is really looking in at the incoming information we can return to a more typical pattern of gradualism for the fed, and we practice that with a lot of uncertainty, you adjust the policy rate, and you wait watchfully i do see what transpires and you make further adjustments. michael: the expectation in the markets was going into every meeting you would be cutting. has that changed? should the expectation be that you will not be doing anything at any particular meeting? from that question close a second question, what are the criteria you need to see to decide to go back to cutting rates? pres. daly: you saw the median projection is two rate cuts next year, so that is already two rate cuts every other meeting. i was comfortable with that median. that makes sense, but we have to remain agile. be resolute to achieve dual mandate goals. price stability was our goal when employment has come into the frame, so we are focused

jobless claims higher than expected.e going to shift gears and talk to richard branson goldman sachs joining us with his outlook for big banks. this is bloomberg. -- richard ramsden. t air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. where can nfl fans get a great deal that turns christmas day the answer is into game day? x marks the spot. the nfl is streaming christmas day games exclusively on netflix, and you don't want to miss a moment. gather round the game because nothing says holidays like family and football. now xfinity customers can add streamsaver including netflix, peacock, and apple tv+ for just $15 a month. stuff your

, and as expected to be above our expectations in september next year as well.mployment is lower and in the sep you will see that participants think that the downside risks are less in uncertainty. inflation is higher, it is higher this year, and higher in the forecast next year, and also pointing out we're closer to the neutral rate which is another reason be cautious about further moves. following the press conference the market song. so let's take at the close on wall street. more than 3% loss on the day. this is the worst day for these markets in months after the rejection from the federal reserve. let's take a look at what is going on now in asia and the markets there. let's cross live now to singapore and sura njana tewari. we see a reaction where you are as well? , �* , . we see a reaction where you are aswell? , a. , we see a reaction where you are aswell? , , ., as well? yes, asian stocks are following _ as well? yes, asian stocks are following what _ as well? yes, asian stocks are following what happened - as well? yes, asian stocks are following what

what kind of tone are you expecting in the news conference? >> i expect a cut.fed hasn't disswayed us of that, and i think that's a very likely. i think the tone will change, frank. i think powell will in the press conference, in the statement after the meeting, make the case that the fed should go much more slowly in the rate cuts going forward, and even lay the foundation for potential pause here for an extended period. you know, there's a lot of uncertainty with regard to economic policy under the new trump administration. tariffs and deportations, what's going to happen with fiscal policy, tax spending policy, and i think the federal reserve needs to get a better fix on that before they make decisions about future rate cuts. i think that is likely the message that will come through with the statement and the press conference. >> it will be a conversation all day. you get to take the first crack at it. according to steve leesman and his fed, 90% of people believe the fed will cut. they actually should cut. we'll show the audience the graphic in a moment. do y

we are not expecting much fog, nor are we expecting the wet weather. upper 40s by 10:00 in the evening, remaining that way through about midnight. if you're going to be into the wee hours of the morning one 2:00, we will continue to see temperatures fall off into the mid 40s. meanwhile, the extended forecast here, our next opportunity for rain looks to be on friday. although it doesn't really last, the first weekend of 2025 looks dry. back to you. >> thank you rosemary. well, next on the four, the nutcracker is coming to the bay area with a twist. how this week's performance is by one company are affected by the war in ukraine. but first, let's take a live look outside at the east shore freeway. you can see the sun just starting to set over the aquatic park in berkeley. there you can see a little bit of heavy traffic in that westbound eastbound direction. rather not your typical monday afternoon commute as this is the day before new year's eve, but still an okay drive for folks out t a deadly plane crash in south korea. 179 people were killed when the

and it is expected to be above what our expectations at september next year would be as well.is lower. in the sep, you will see participants think the downside risks are less and uncertainty is less. that i more strength. inflation is higher as we talked about. inflation is higher this year and it is higher in the forecast next year. i would also point out that we are closer to the neutral rate which is another reason to be cautious about further moves. getting to your point, there is uncertaint around inflation. it is actually higher. it is also, in the case of some people, the way i would say it is this. some people did take a very preliminary step starting to incorporate highly conditional estimates of the economic effects of policies and the forecast of this meeting and said so in the meeting. some people said they didn't do so and some people didn't say whether they did or not. we have people making a bunch of different approaches to that. some did identify policy uncertainty is one of the reasons for more uncertainty around inflation. the point about uncertainty is it is

temperatures as you might expect. the freezing point right now at incline village, 32 at home 34 south lake tahoe. overall, the pattern still looking pretty stormy in the high country. in fact, the storm start to really ramp up throughout the night tonight into early tomorrow morning. the bay-area see that rain all around now and that will continue to move through winter weather advisories in effect for much of the sierra nevada. even further south told you 70 mammoth lakes traveling in those locations, be prepared. tonight's going to be rough. those a winter weather advisories come back down about noon on friday. here we go. we've got one storm system moving through overnight tonight and tomorrow, then cloudy skies on saturday. another stronger storm expected to move late saturday night into sunday and that one going to be a blustery system. you'll see it here. one right after another. this system coming through, bring heavy rainfall to the state. lots of snow on the high country. another band of moisture moves in an

you were expecting three.ball and ring it into next year, how many do you expect and a hike could be on the table depending on how the presidential policies play out? danielle: given the magnitude of revisions, the economic alice's -- analysis took down its income is $65 billion and took it down by $91 billion. given the magnitude of revisions we are seeing, i think market pricing is in the wrong place but in a different direction. i think we will see more along the lines of four if not five rate cuts into 2025. we are starting the year with median duration unemployment at 10.5 weeks and it is not until october 2009 during the great depression that we had seen people out of work for such an extended period of time. the fed will be leaning harder on the labor mandate going into 2025 and then the markets will see more rate cuts they on what is priced in. kind of a flipside of last year. romaine: we only have one minute left and i will get your thoughts looking ahead to may 2026, jay powell, does trump keep them

but i would not expect khan 2.0.a: good luck at the hotel, i'm glad that you brought up and your ferguson because right now we are looking of a potential for a rash of m&a. we see the announcements and a whole host of different mergers. we did just get kroger and -- being halted by a federal judge. you wonder how many of these companies are going to re-up some of these cases. dani: they very well might put some of these ongoing cases started in the trump administration, things like pursuing google. they might be reversed, goldman sachs' ceo has been talking about it. there might be a moment next year we pause and say it might not be as great and sunny as we all expect. annmarie: that is the thread. it is going to be big tech and that is one of the things trump highlighted when this announcement came out. andrew has a proven record of standing up to big tech censorship. handbags, groceries, maybe this ftc is going to allow it to go through. lisa: coming up, we are going to have that conversation with justin d'ercole o

we are expecting above trend growth next year and i'm not concerned yet.me of the canaries if they're going to bite, especially for u.s. nationals. the bigger risk for them is the u.s. dollar rising is a drag of 100 basis points to some companies if the dollar remains this strong. for us, yields, as long as it stays below five, i'm not concerned if we creep from 4.50 to 5, then i get concerned >> i want to double check. give us notes before the fed decision blackstone and broadcom. a buy on blackstone and broadcom >> absolutely. i love those companies i think blackstone is using this to trade debt. you can't beat them. >> that will do it for "worldwide exchange. >>> deal wasn't done after elon musk pressured republicans. details straight ahead >>> stocks tumbling yesterday. ten straight declines in the dow after the fed cut interest rates by a quarter point, but signalled a slower pace of cuts next year. >>> tiktok has a court date. the supreme court will hear arguments in january just nine days before the app is scheduled to be shutdown in the u.s. it's t

exceeding expectations.tly reflecting one off factors that roosted tourism over the summer and by firms building up inventories. but the latest information suggests it isn't losing momentum -- it is losing momentum. manufacturing is still contracting and growth in services is slowing. firms are holding back their investment spending in the face of weak demand, and a highly uncertain outlook. exports are also week, with some european industries finding it challenging to remain competitive. the labor market remains resilient. employment grew by .2% in the third quarter, again by more than expected. the unemployment rate remained at its historic low of 6.3% in october. meanwhile, demand for labor continues to weaken. the job vacancy rate declined the two point 5% in the third quarter, zero point 8% below its peak, and surveys also point to fewer jobs being created in the current quarter. the economy should strengthen over time. although more slowly than previously expected. the rise in real wages should strengt

i'll have a look at what we can expect moving forward, how long this rainfall is expected to last, as well as what we can expect for the rest of the week. coming up, rosemary. >> thank you. we're still seeing the impacts of all this wild weather today. our tori gaines is live in oakland here to bring us up to date. tori. >> hi. good afternoon. garcia. yeah, we were storm chasers this morning. we brought you views of how this storm is impacting the bay area. from up in the north bay, down into san francisco proper. and we ran into a lot of folks who were just out enjoying the rain. the wet weather is back in the north bay. had enough rain by early monday morning that there was an abundance of standing water on roadways and freeways, as well as off ramps down in san francisco. rain and strong winds over the weekend toppled large trees near the corner of fulton street and 36th avenue. police closing fulton for several blocks on monday due to the downed trees and power lines that remained on scene, though, the rain was coming down pretty hard in sf, we still came across lots of folks who

it's expected to last until 4:00 sunday morning.ft high off the coast before they come cascading into the shoreline. those waves are stretching much of the north and south, stretching to much of the north and south as well. this video shows how strong the waves have been near fort bragg. that's along the mendocino coastline. as we said, dangerous waves expected to last through the weekend. officials say people should stay out of the water and stay away from beaches, piers and docks. santa cruz city officials say they hope to reopen two of their beaches as soon as tomorrow, but the iconic wharf remains closed due to damage from a large swell that sank a 150 foot section into the ocean on monday. ktvu is jesse gary is in santa cruz, where a news conference ended a short time ago. jesse, what have you learned? >> ali, good afternoon to you. officials here say the wharf that you see behind me is going to remain closed for weeks, possibly months, as they work on three different problems simultaneously while also gauging how to move forwa

yes, alex. >> and tomorrow is expected to be the wettest. as we know, we've been seeing rounds move through over the bay area over the course of the weekend, and the high surf remains with us. in fact, high tide coming in just about ten minutes ago. so dangerous surf expected to last into tomorrow afternoon as well. here's a look over san francisco, where we do have fog out there at this time, and a few scattered showers reported over the bay area, but fairly quiet as we await the next storm. expected to bring the heaviest amount of rain into the overnight hours lasting into the first part of tomorrow. areas over the pacific northwest, northern california already beginning to see that when it comes to rainfall amounts between now and tuesday evening, we are looking at anywhere from a quarter inch to an inch for most of our urban areas. we will see a little bit more than that in our hills, and it does favor the north bay once again, where we could get 1 to 2in of rainfall. meanwhile, the sierra over the weekend saw a lot of rain. that's going

traders expecting a 25 point cut later today. taking on toyota. nissan shares soar on a report of merger talks with honda potentially creating a new japanese car giant. in germany, volkswagen and union leaders are deadlocked on layoffs and factories. israel raises hopes of a cease-fire with hamas and gaza. working to reestablish relations with mediators. happy wednesday. it is of course fed day. all about the fed with a side helping of u.k. inflation. 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. an eye on the market crisis as well. some have characterized it in brazil. european futures currently flat after four days of losses. s&p futures in similar territory looking for guidance from jay powell and the forecast and the doc plots. will they revise lower? rate cuts of .25. s&p futures just pointing a little higher. up 10/10 of 1%. losses of 4/10 of a percent for the s&p and nasdaq yesterday. you could be looking at 6% yields on the 10-year next year depending of course on the fiscal challenges of that u.s. government. the bench mark state side. the pound in focus. at 7:00

a lot of folks expected to come out here to mistletoe on sutter street in union square, as they are expected to come out in droves to all bars across the city. but one important thing to remember santacon is not just a bar crawl. also going toward a good cause benefiting toys for tots. so if you're able to come out to union square where it starts, make sure you bring a toy in san francisco. i'm bailey o'carroll, ktvu, fox two news. >> all right, should be a good time. santacon will also feature a new attraction this year. [music] santa claus is coming to town. one event organizer networked to bring singers to this year's event, pulling from a colleague's temp recruitment firm wanted to be able to add some other family friendly things, and one of those would be singers. >> so we really want to show that santacon is more than just a pub crawl. it's inclusive for everybody. everyone is welcome. >> about 35 people answered the call to perform, so if you're headed to santacon tomorrow, you can catch the debut of the temp time carolers at 2 p.m. in union square. it was a tough loss for amador vall

we should expect to see a rotation there.and value that can power markets higher into 2025, but it is overly optimistic to think that we will be getting multiple expansions. there's a lot of sentiment pervading the market with investors on one side of the boat in terms of the optimistic view. we have to kind of rethink it when duct tape banana is selling for $6 million. that's a lot of excessive optimism for us. lisa: certainly -- annmarie: certainly. emily, you talk about everyone being on one side of the boat, but there was a pullback yesterday after china talked about and announced a probe into nvidia. your favorite sector is u.s. large-cap technology. are you concerned about that sector next year with a tit-for-tat potential trade war between washington and beijing? emily: there is credit risk there as far as nvidia goes with other areas of the sector but it comes back to earnings growth for us in we are big believers in overtime stock prices will follow profits and right now we are seeing the best earnings growth by far

this 12,000 number for october is expected to be revised up to around 50,000.ne season as well. that will keep that print of around 200,000 but still not a particularly strong number given all the factors taken into account and they see the unemployment rate going up. let's have a look at what this has to do with the economic growth of the u.s. you have the data coming through and we will get more that will build out this picture but this is a story of relative resilience and we monitor the labor market on friday with expectations around the fed 60% chance they go again this month with another cut and you get to 4% on the benchmark rate around july 2025. we will be speaking with the european banking authority chairman after they publish the results of the transparency exercise and risk assessment report coming up. the opening trade is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're h

the move was in line with expectations and core cbi came in slightly below expectations. >>> meanwhilelet's turn our attention to what's happening in united states. retail sales rose greater than expected 0.7% on the month in november. fueled by an acceleration in motor vehicle sales and online sales. economists had expected a monthly rise of 0.5%. >>> that data comes ahead of today's fed decision kicking off a key week of central bank action. the bank of america ceo told cnbc, he is more confident in the strength of the u.s. consumer. >> the consumer is fundamental. what happened in the middle of summer, we are talking various things. the consumer slowed down. i was getting concerned that the fed would get behind on cutting rates. saw consumer enthusiasm. you saw more activity, because they realized in the future, the rates are coming down. that started happening in september time frame. so you started spending picking back up. right now, for the two weeks around thanksgiving, it's 5% plus of all kinds of spending over last year. that's stronger than it would have been last year or th

we, the economy grew faster in the second half of 2024 so far than we had expected and it is expected to be above what our expectations in september next year as well. unemployment is lower and you know in the sep you'll see that participants think that the that the downside risks are less and uncertainty is less so that's that's more strength, right? inflation is higher, as we talked about. inflation is higher this year. it's also higher in the forecast next year. i'd also point out that we're closer to the neutral rate, which is another reason to be cautious about about further moves. and but then getting to your to your point, there's also there's a uncertainty, uncertainty around inflation, i pointed out is actually higher. it's also, it's also in the case of some people, some people, the way i would say it is this. some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate. you know, highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecasts at this meeting and said so in the meeting. some people said they didn't do so and some people didn't didn

tell us more about this reset that we are expecting.- that we are expecting.cting. good afternoon from _ that we are expecting. good afternoon from brussels, i afternoon from brussels, michelle. the finance minister rachel reeves as you said is here in brussels for what she calls a milestone. she says she wants a more normal trading arrangement with the eu, from that which the still newish labour government inherited from their predecessors in the conservative party. to that end, she is right now addressing that meeting of european finance ministers and it is very warm words, we are hearing, we have continually heard warm words and what they call a reset of the economic relationship between the uk and the eu after brexit. and i think the act of this happening, the goodwill they are trying to engender, that is the point of the day's discussion. but the question arises, and it arises quite quickly given we are expecting a summit in brussels between the prime minister and the european commission as early as february, what does this reset actually mean, how ambiti

as i mentioned, almost every bar expected to be packed tomorrow. but one thing i do want to mention santacon not just a pub bar crawl, but also a toy drive benefiting toys for tots. so if you want to come out, it starts at union square tomorrow. make sure you bring a toy. it is the time of giving, right? the season of giving, so make sure to do that if you are able. guys, we'll send it back to you in the studio. >> that's the main point. it's a toy drive. okay, bailey, we saw you got behind the bar. how was your drink? >> i know it was great. it was. this is crazy to say. i can't believe i'm going to say this on tv, but it was actually my first time trying eggnog. a ten out of ten. it's great. i'm going to have some from now on. every holiday from here on out. >> okay. sounds good. bailey o'carroll and city tonight. bailey thank you. macy's has announced that it will accelerate its planned store closures for the year. the company's ceo told analysts during an earnings call that the retailer now expects to close about 65 locations before the end of

filed against mangione in new york today, and the criminal complaint expected, mangione is expected be sent as we know from pennsylvania to new york. where the feds and nypd will bring him to federal court for an initial appearance in the state new york state court appearance on the state murder charges would be put off for another time/date. guidance on all of this is congress through. coming through. this is something that's just happening now that the feds are expected to charge him on federal charges. we have been speculating about that before, but this is now saying, several sources are confirming that it is expected he's going to be first facing arraignment only deral charges and then the charges in reference to the state charges and what the manhattan district attorney, alvin bragg would charge him with. that would come at a later time this is all very serious, the federal charges as we pointed out, those could carry a death penalty for this 26-year-old man. the state charges against him, two murder charges, one in the first degree. they, if he is convicted of those, they cou

and so it is expected that she may run to replace him. but again, mark carney, who uh who, who is, has, has all kinds of credibility when it comes to economic management is also expected to be a strong contender to replace justin true to. so it's, it's hard to say at this point, but the fact that she will now be on the back bench and not on the front bench and cabinet. um, will be interesting to watch how she, how she plays this going forward. there was a super interesting talking to and actually canadian politics is fascinating. journalist lou saint via an old and barn about joining us from the canadian capital auto right to have you on the show. so thank you. germany and france like to talk up their special relationship and it's true. the 2 countries do have the political and cultural connections. but when it came to getting between berlin and powers by train, that's when the friendship became a little complicated, with no direct, high speed link between the capitals today, federal changed at 9 55 am. a german i. c. e train left guard t

>>>>and so that town hall meeting expected to happen within ten days. police have also said that the security guard was armed. we've reached out to dior and have not yet heard back. the alameda county district attorney's office is dropping involuntary manslaughter charges against the final officer involved in the death of mario gonzalez. alameda city officer eric mckinley was one of three officers under investigation. the charges against the other two officers had already been dropped. officials say inconsistent testimony by a forensic pathologist hired by the gonzalez family would have made it difficult for the prosecution to meet the burden of proof. gonzalez died after being detained by officers in april of 2021. the autopsy report showed gonzalez died of the effects of methamphetamine. gonzalez's family argues that he suffocated as a result of the police restraint. of an emergency landing taking place this morning at the naval air station in alameda, which is now closed. we're still waiting for more details on this, but as you can see, a small plane

expectations stumbled 7. and and it's really tepid expectations really. the parabolic spike in concerns about major purchases being more expensive, right? it's a yellow line on the par end of that chart. it's huge, it's a huge spike. now here's the thing, because of that or in part because of that the influence of the year ahead inflation numbers now back to 2.9% from 2. 6%. but even there there's a california yacht. party affiliation -- caveat. one year for republican, one-year inflation expectations plunged to 1.3%. on the other hand, democrats' 11-year inflation expectation spiking to 3.2% -- 1-year. let's bring in economist diane swonk. sentiment also, of course, influenced by politics, you know, and you always have to kind of figure that out. how do you mitigate that in the headline that, hey, inflation expectations are higher? >> well, i think the really important issue here is the last time we saw anything like this was in response to the 2018 tariffs. and what we see now is an even more exaggerated, a

a view here of what we expect for tomorrow morning.e warning is for our north bay valley and hills. it will go until 10 a.m. it begins at 8:00 this evening for areas expected to hit below freezing in the upper 20s for some, and most of the bay area will have a frost advisory, meaning our temperatures are going to be hovering right around freezing. here's a peek at some of the numbers expected for tomorrow morning. 29 degrees for santa rosa, a cool 42 in san francisco and a chilly 36 for san jose for the inner east bay 33, in livermore tomorrow afternoon. similar to today. but then as we get into the evening hours, temperatures will begin to cool. and if you are going to be out, perhaps to watch the fireworks, it's going to be a chilly evening. 50 degrees by ht. a look at yourroke of extended forecast here. do expect to remain dry through january 1st. rain looks to return on friday. it doesn't last, though. the first weekend of january likely going to be dry. >> a little bit of a dry from that rain. yes. for such a long time. yeah. all

and we are expecting some high surf. it started today we're talking about 30 to 35 feet breakers and even 40 feet waves over at places like mavericks showers continue monday. it looks like will remain unsettled monday during the day with some lighter rain. but the evening is when we'll start to see that next. strong system linger into tuesday. we get a break just in time for santa's arrival, but more active weather is right behind the christmas and hanukkah holiday. so here is our storm tracker and that's our next system. we're keeping an eye on it is pretty active out here and the eastern pacific. a little closer here. some lingering showers around the bay area from the north bay to the peninsula san francisco. but here's the future cast model. so you can see where remain unsettled. overnight, cloudy skies to start your morning. maybe some sprinkles. coastal drizzle tomorrow during the day and around the evening close to 11:00pm here. so this is 10, 30 start to see this heavy rain approach. the north bay and santa rosa.

we expect the fed decision on wednesday at a time where it is expected to be 25 basis points. i feel like christine lagarde offered up a note of caution yesterday where she came out and drop the idea of sufficiently restrictive rates and there was this selloff on the heels of not enough dovishness. to dani's point, it seems like there needs to be an overly dovish feeling to justify some of the moves we are seeing. annmarie: potentially we will get that next year. it will be when the central banks move. what is the catalyst to the moves and is at the change of policies when it comes to the political economy. all of that is sitting around washington, d.c. and a very protectionist administration. lisa: coming up, chris verone of strategas, wendy schiller as trump continues doubling the soft and leland miller as china signals more fiscal stimulus. tech leading stats higher. chris verrone looking ahead to next year. "today the average 2025 s&p forecast is just about 10% higher than the current levels. the bar of expectations for the market is higher today than it was a year ago. wi