and i guess part of the one in the imf _ was. and i guess part of the one in the imf issued, - was. part of the one in the imf issued, we . was. and i guess part of the l one in the imf issued, we had trump's treasury secretary reaffirming that he is committed to a strong us dollar, that has a strong knock—on effect, mixed lives much harderfor them, though. much harder for them, though. if much harderfor them, though. if you think about it in two ways, there are a lot of countries that hold treasurers, and it is also a good thing for them to have a strong dollar. i think we are maintaining a commitment to having a dollar as a global reserve currency is something i think the administration wants, and i think it is good for holders of us securities outside of the us, and it is good for those who want treasury bills. always aood to who want treasury bills. always good to see _ who want treasury bills. always good to see you, _ who want treasury bills. always good to see you, thank- who want treasury bills. always good to see you, thank you - who want treasury bills. always good to see

at this moment you are negotiating with the imf. at the movement argentina has a $44 billion program. are you trying to get an increase on that or would you be happy with just rolling over the $44 billion? pres. milei: part of it has to do with the structure of payments -- john: to push them further out? pres. milei: and another part has to deal with getting fresh funds to rebuild the central bank accounts, the stocks and thereby accelerate the lifting of the currency controls. that is not being discussed. it is definitely going to happen but i cannot consider lifting controls if i do not know how much money we are talking about. it is not just about how much but about how. what i need to do is match the flows of funds so the key is about that. this whole negotiation makes it clear that we are going to lift the controls, but the exit will depend in terms of the speed on the amount of the operation and on how the operation is structured. in other words it is not the same if i get all of the money cash as opposed to installments. what

reaction to the incoming presidency of donald trump, this time from the imf.e at the china centre at oxford university, and also the author of red flags a book about why china is in jeopardy. thank you forjoining us. so many issues we have been discussing today, and recent days, when we have been listening to marco rubio, the new incoming secretary of state, china is really central focus for donald trump. but i want to start by talking about the chinese economy, because i want your assessment of where it is, because we see things like 5% growth, but underlying, what is your assessment of how strong that the chinese economy is? i strong that the chinese economy is? ~ , strong that the chinese economy is? ~' ., , , is? i think china's economy is a curious _ is? i think china's economy is a curious thing _ is? i think china's economy is a curious thing to _ is? i think china's economy is a curious thing to behold, - is? i think china's economy is a curious thing to behold, on| a curious thing to behold, on the one hand you have what everybody i think really under

in it's twice yearly forecast for the world economy, the imf said mr trump's threatened wave of tariffsde tensions". our business editor simonjack has more. this is the trump white house's exercising in the imf. 0bviously, they can't go very many, many stories today without his presence in it. what are they basically saying is that trump's threatened or promised policy of tariffs on goods being imported to the us from abroad, tax cuts within the us, both of those things could stoke inflation in the us and also cause the dollar to accelerate. now, in the short term, they say that could be good for the us, bad for everyone else. a runaway dollar would suck money in from emerging economies, have a trade war which would depress global growth. but it's not all good news. the imf is also warning that if they did have a us boom, at some point they would have to jack up interest rates and then you might get a us bust. and what that might do, that boom, then bust, would begin to compromise the appeal of the us as the safest global asset in the world, us treasuries, whatever. so in the end, basic

the imf issued a warning at the end of last week. what's your outlook?ets. markets were waiting to unleash animal spirit, so i think they'll do that. and secondly, what trump wants to have happen in the first day, really, is to show energy and focus. he will do that, and markets expect that energy and focus particularly after four years of inflationary drift, frankly. so they will be off to a very good start, but markets are also going to have to understand and will understand early that a lot of the things they are looking for — tax bill and the like — will take some time and won't go quickly. and we will have full live coverage of donald trump's inauguration here on bbc news, with a special programme from washington, starting at 12.00 gmt today. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. you are with business today. more now on what donald trump has been up to in the run up to todays inauguration. on friday evening the president—elect launched his own cryptocurrency — appropriately called $trump — using the dollar symbol — and it sparked fev

we had the imf using our twice a year meetings per policy coordination. and what that translates into is more consistent coordination when necessary but also divergence in policies when necessary. the second thing that is different, we have madame lagarde in ecb. [laughter] [applause] >> larry, i keep reading headlines, "larry is worried about inflation." why? >> i'm not terribly worried. >> do you think the market is being too complacent? >> the bond market is the best reflection of what is going on. it is a barometer for every politician, for every central bank. it informs us every day where the mood of the global economy. i believe the bond market is indicating that inflation may be higher than we think. the genie may be coming out of the bottle. i look at this in so many different ways. if you just think about ai for a moment and the united states right now, data centers are about to gigawatts of power. in the united states, we are estimating alone data centers represent a need 300 gigawatts of power in the next five years to meet the needs. if we are

if you were to take the imf model where the estimate the impact on u.s. global gdp of such a policy that it's quite an opportunity for the welfare around the world. it would reduce trade barriers and increase and make global economy more efficient. >> mike trumbull, christian science monitor. >> in economic growth, there's quite a bit of labor participation of how to improve it. the need to improve it and now we have senator sanders and others on the left saying let's get a job for everyone come maybe government provide a job. the economic report talks about work requirements so those are two very different approaches to the problem. but i wonder if you could comment on sort of is or at least some common ground? some of the same solutions around whether it's job training or the opioid crisis, is her an opportunity and how much could you may be banned that curve of declining labor participation? >> i think the curve you're referencing probably look at, virtually everyone here i'm sure with a slightly different angle could write an interesting piece on what

increase manufacturing, the international monetary fund is positive forecasting 2.7% growth in 2025, imfing director join me on the program yesterday. watch. >> the u.s. is doing well and we expect it will continue to outperform the rest of the world. what we see at the heart of outperforming his productivity growth, in the united states productivity is going up and up every single year. in the rest of the world where activities like sleeping beauty it is there but it does nothing for the economy. >> interesting divergence, yet the united states looking good a lot of optimism, europe not so much. >> postcode for the united states has surged past your use of a bigger gdp because if treated 50 million people board. but now we have a bigger gdp than europe 20 some percent or more, that is because our technology has been so superior to everything in your think about this you cannot get to doubt the day without using american technology, you don't need to use the european technology to get to the day. europeans are using american technology that is helping working technologies they have not r

government is going to give some support to that, certainly, and we must remember, about last spring, the imf positioned as an economy to benefit from al and that is because there is a reasonably well educated labour force and regulations read anything so hopefully this economy in the uk will benefit through ai and the reason, or how it would benefit, would be raising productivity which really is the key to unleashing wealth as well as a growth through the economy. well as a growth through the economy-— economy. will it counter the im act economy. will it counter the impact of — economy. will it counter the impact of the _ economy. will it counter the impact of the budget - economy. will it counter the impact of the budget and . economy. will it counter the impact of the budget and if. economy. will it counter the i impact of the budget and if the changes that take place in april, where businesses across the country are going to have to stomach more costs? equity just back from china and we will talk about that in a moment, but the question is whether this sort of announcement and strategy is

the imf warned that donald trump's economic policy threatens global disruption and could exacerbate tradeeme court is expected to announce its decision shortly. and archaeologists in italy unearth archaeologists in italy unearth a huge bathhouse in pompeii, destroyed by a volcanic eruption nearly 2000 years ago. hello and welcome to bbc news. israel's security cabinet has recommended approving the ceasefire deal and hostage release deal agreed with hamas. it comes after a meeting lasting several hours. the full cabinet is

the imf issued a warning at the end of the last week, what's your outlook?s generally that, you _ outlook? my view is generally that, you know, _ outlook? my view is generally that, you know, initially, - that, you know, initially, certainly it all will be very positive for markets. markets are waiting to unleash animal spirit, so i think they'll do, firstly. secondly, what trump wants to have happen in the first day really is to show energy and focus. he'll do that and markets expect that energy and markets expect that energy and focus, particularly after four years of inflation ary drift, frankly. so they'll be off to a very good start. but markets are also going to have to understand and will understand i think very early that a lot of the things they're looking for, tax and they're looking for, tax and the like, will take quite some time and won't go quickly. thank you once again for your thoughts and analysis. we'll see you again, i'm sure. as the trump presidency gets under way. as we mentioned, full live coverage of the inauguration here on bbc news w

if you were to take the imf's models where the estimate the impact on the u.s. global gdp of such a policy, it is quite an opportunity for improving welfare around the world. it would reduce their trade barriers and make the economy more efficient. linda: mark trumbull from christian science monitor. reporter: in the economic report there is quite a bit about labor participation. how to improve it. the need to improve it. now we have senator sanders and others on the left saying let's get a job for everyone. maybe a government provided job. the economic report talks about work requirements. those are two different approaches to the problem. i wonder if you could comment on is there some common ground? do both sides see a big need? some solutions are on job-training or the opioid crisis. is there an opportunity? how much could you maybe bend the curve of declining labor participation? mr. hassett: i think the curve you are referencing, virtually everyone here with a slightly different angle could write an interesting piece on what is happening to labor force part

there has been a warning from the imf about his economic policy and it could have a blowback impact ond states. are you worried about that? >> i think the issue is being taken advantage of. the united states pays more than -- caitriona: we do have to leave it there. >> thank you for being with us. we will throw it back to you. caitriona: ok, thanks for that. yes, we see that donald trump and first lady melania trump arriving. there they are arriving at the corporate level onto the floor of the capital one arena. just a moment ago, we saw the vice president jd vance and second lady arrived with their three children. this is the moment that these supporters have been waiting for since early this morning. the chance to glimpse president donald trump, first lady melania trump, and all his family and cabinet and friends. they have come from all over america for this moment. the chance for a few words, the chance for a handshake, the chance for a selfie. the chance to see the men that they voted for, the man they wanted to see as 47th president of the united states. donald trump. "ahihail to

the imf just upgraded growth so were predicted to be the fastest growing major european economy. wages are up and inflations down. that's after just six months. >> think you, mr. speaker. kettering general hospital is where i was born and cared for as a premature baby but after 14 years of the conservatives underfunding the nhs, the same maternity ward is partially closed and after giving birth, mothers are transported outside through the car park to receive postnatal care. will the prime minister visit kettering general to discuss how we can support services like the maternity ward while we await our rebuild? p.m. starmer: she has been determined champion of kettering general hospital and rightly so. there are dangers about the delay to the work because that the failure to have a plan on the party opposite. while we implement are affordable and deliverable plan to build a new hospital, i can reassure her that the wreck identified it kettering general is being mitigated and replaced through national rack program. >> before christmas, lord robinson -- lord robertson came before th

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we have got the imf managing director kristalina georgieva, sarah frier the cfo of openai, the argentinian president javier milei, the nato secretary-general mark rutte, larry fink the chairman and ceo blackrock and we have ruth {prat , the president and ceo of alphabet and google. coming up on "daybreak: europe", back online, tiktok restores service side of the u.s. after briefly going dark. we will bring you the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak europe." coming up to 6:19 a.m. in london. breaking news crossing the terminal from the ecb. a rate cut in january not a foregone conclusion according to robert holzmann on the governing council. he says the ecb risks credibility cutting rates when cpi is rising. this, as attention turns towards growth, the risks likely to be highlighted in the pmi numbers later in the week for the euro area expected to still be in contraction territory. off the back of these lines, this interview with politico, we have euro-dollar currently stronger 0.3% at 1.03 handle. we keep an eye on that as we head towards the ecb

went to the imf for bailout. that is not what people are calling for, so how do we stop it? the narrative and mantra from the biden administration and president-elect, but the question is, what triggers a real dislocation of the bond market? is it additional tax cuts above 5 trillion? what you are seeing is a mini bear raid in the u.s., walking into a global dislocation, but this is a lesson for the u.s. bond market, and if you push the fiscal envelope too hard, too fast and too aggressive, the whipsaw could be on you mental. 1994. jonathan: thank you. looking forward to payrolls tomorrow morning. 165,000 is the estimate in our survey, the previous is 227. we have said good evening, tokyo because we believe they are 30 to follow given would have been so closely. we have to say good afternoon, london, tomorrow morning and that will be a big issue for the u.k.. lisa: even more so than good afternoon tokyo because tokyo is doing fine with wage increases they have seen. it is really know about the united kingdom and europe that is feeling pressure that is impacting markets don't

and business leaders and conversations with the new chief teresa ribera and the finance minister and imfy. we will hear from the dutch prime minister and ceos of lseg and abu dhabi. it kicks off live on cnbc international youtube page. >>> i want to take you to breaking news from the chinese commerce ministry. we are just obtaining flashes on this. they are saying they will initiate anti-dumping and subsidy investigation into the u.s. subsidies in the chip industry at chinese chip industry request. they obtained a request here to look at u.s. subsidies to its chip industry and chinese commerce ministry now actually initiating an investigation here. of course, this is particularly important after the recent moves from the united states in terms of export restrictions for chip makers as well. all in all, it just highlights, really, how chipmakers, how this sector has become also heavily politicized to some extent because of their importance, really, for the industry and for global economy as well. >>> speak of chipmakers, tsmc posted record profits in the fourth quarter with net profit ris

we had the imf using our twice a year meetings for policy coordination.nd what that translates into is more consistent coordination when necessary but also divergent in policies when necessary. and the second thing is -- that is different, we have madame lagarde in ecb. [applause] >> larry, feel like i keep reading headlines. larry fink warns of inflation. we're not been with inflation. larry is very worried about inflation. why? >> i'm not terribly worried. >> do you think the market is being too complacent about the inflation? >> i think the bond market is the best reflection of what's going on in the world. it is a barometer for every politician come every central bank. it informs every day where the mood of the global economy, and i believe the bond market is indicating that inflation may be higher than we think. the ginnie may be coming out of the bottle, and i look at this in so many different ways that if you just think about ai for a minute, and the united states meitner davis and represent about 50 gigawatts of power. in the treatment estimating

now the imf has the 2025 growth forecast by ten basis points to 1.6%.t happened on friday putting the country in third place among g7 economies behind the u.s. and canada. it comes as cold comfort to keir starmer who pledged the fastest growing economy in the group. meanwhile, rachel reeves is looking to economic data and bruising week for gilts. i'm pleased to introduce chris hayward. good morning, chris. great to you have on the show and a chance to speak with you again. before we discuss in more detail the outlook for the uk economy, i would like to understand you are in davos today. i would like to understand what are some of the conversations that you are planning to have this week and more broadly as well what you expect to hear from the chancellor rachel reeves while there? >> look, good morning to you. i'm in davos with the uk delegation this week and it's a great opportunity annually to showcase the united kingdom to global investors. we know that part of getting economic growth is about attracting more direct investment into the united kingdom

and, you know, you ask why, the imf recently put out global demand forecasts and expected demand forde. in your last segment you were talking about ai. ai applications require more energy intense computing and it's expected to increase copper demand by 3.4 million tons each year all the way up to 2050. so everything from electric vehicles, electric vehicles use four times more copper than traditional gas vehicles. the grid and renewable technologies. we also expect constant traditional demand to pick up in 2025, construction spending, infrastructure spending and defense. so when you do your risk assessment, yes, the biggest headwinds are higher rates, stronger dollar, weaker china. but the biggest tailwinds could be chinese stimulus for infrastructure and development. i think these things are going to continue to roll through 2025. >> let's take us through the trade. the downward move, how exactly would you trade it in a risk-managed fashion? >> so you look at seasonally, we tend to see copper prices rise to the end of about february, last 13 out of 15 years. when you come out a winn

you look at the imf report a couple of days ago, global growth is expected to be 3%.rging in asia is having growth rates of 5%. this is going to be leading global growth. china is the story and you also have dia and the asean economies. regarding chinese growth, i think that the fact that china was able to have 5% growth last year speaks volumes about the capacity of such a large economy to continue growth rates not as high as in the past, but still cent growth rates. this was reported by policy. policy will continue to be supported this year if the chinese authorities want to maintain growth rates between 4% and 5% and 4.5% and 5%. the china's authority still has to come up with what the official target for this year. i think what is most important was the explicit acknowledgment by the chinese authorities that they will continue to support chinese growth through proper monetary and fiscal policies. with that, clearly, there is a need to revive consumer confidence. i think more needs to be done as needed in order to make sure the property sector finally stabilizes an

i would argue, it will be a drag on the economy, whether it is the world bank, imf, they have all toldn global growth is even with the 10% tariff across the board. dollar strength is mitigated, no question. we had our treasury secretary alike really point out the strength or the importance of a strong dollar. i think the dollar will remain strong. i think, if anything, you could see a d vowel around the world as an elixir to, you know, an issue, make your products cheaper if your currency is cheaper. >> i am glad to hear you talk about that. this is one of the more outsized moves we have seen. it's not just that it is up 10% more the last couple of months, it leveled out a couple times in the 1980s, don't know if that affects how you treat u.s. stocks. they do a lot of international revenues on the margin. >> i think you think about this. i run an international etf. if i think about siemens, companies like this, i think they benefit. i actually think they become more competitive and more interesting. >> look at the german stock market which is at an all-time high. the euro looks like i

we will speak to policymakers with the e ister and the imf deputy and do not miss our exclusive conversationb president christine lagarde live at 8:10 london time wednesday morning. our coverage kicks off tuesday from davos across cnbc tv and the international live youtube page as well. >>> as we approach the end of the show, here are the three things to get you up to speed on wall street. we have data on housing and industrial figures state side. eyes ares on apple after the stock had its worst day since august. it closed 4% lower. it was a rough day for snap. shares ended 5% in the red after the ftc would refer a complaint to the department of justice. that is it for today's show. have a great weekend. i'm silvia amaro. orwi ehae"s mi "wlddexcng icong up next. let's say you're deep in a show or a game or the game. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? >>> it's 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welc

unfortunately, only the start agreement remains in effect because putin pulled russia out of the imf agreement. one reason that we can understand why reagan message didn't work very well in the short term is to focus on the credit war barriers that he faced in getting this message across. so i want to talk about attitudes in europe and to a lesser extent, japan and south korea, in asia, now, allies of the united states, the united and then the barriers and faced in sending the message to the soviet union, the first message was the first barrier was fear of nuclear war. over the course of the spring of 1982, it very clear that there was major opposition to reagan's arms build up in western europe. writing in businessweek, saul sanders noted authorities in germany are worried about, i'm quoting, vice outpourings of youth and radicals who accused the us of seeking world domination. according to the guardian, the problems related to india policy disagreement in which the u.s. is on the opposite side from europe on almost every important topic in right before the speech in the days before

she'll be joined by the ecb president, christine lagarde, the president of singapore, the imf's managingthe chairman and ceo of blackrock, larry fink as well. that's coming up at 11 cet. staying in davos, then, has been speaking to business leaders about how they see the impact of trump's election. take a listen. >> the big. >> thing is trump, trump. >> trump and then i. >> so those are the big themes. >> i think. >> but you know, i think i. >> meet. >> a lot of the ceos from different businesses around the world. and the optimism is something which, you know, having come here a few years now, you really get a good feel about the optimism of where the world economy is going. >> we are between. >> orders and it's clear that the old. >> world order. >> has come to an end. what the new world order will look like, we don't know yet. we're in between, so we have to live with some unpredictability. unpredictability. we've seen some things happening where. >> business and. >> government is. >> getting closer. together and clearly. >> but the interesting. >> thing about. trump is he does. >> his

kennan thought that kennan wrote this or the other thing about vietnam, about the imf missile deployment in the early 1980s. and, you know, i then working as i am now on the foreign relations of the united states series, and i'm supposed to state my views in my own and not those of the government, but i thinking to myself, if each of these moments i that paul nitze is intimately involved in these negotiations and kennan is writing in a way that reinforces what i think a lot of critics, american foreign policy were already inclined to believe. and he wrote beautifully i mean really a great and historian but did it actually change the policy and that kind of got b interested in it and his longevity and the kind of point i'm making the book is, you from roosevelt to the title from roosevelt to reagan paul nitze ackerman's white house pension to the most important matters of u.s. security and defense, namely nuclear strategy and negotiations. and, you know, i tried to lay out in the book, well, how does he do it how does he stay relevant for all these years? and i think that, you as you allu

up next the former imf chief economist from davos, switzerland.his is bloomberg. ♪ the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. jonathan: it has been choppy overnight in the equity market. futures breaking lower off the back of comments from president donald trump on the prospect of big tariffs on the likes of canada and mexico. positive by one third 1% on the s&p. last week one of the biggest weeks since election week on the s&p 500. some morning movers. manus: helping some of the duration in big tech as opposed to a drop in yields. one story not unscathed this apple. sales in china of the iphone. 18%. globally, down 5%. who is stealing tim cook's lunch? huawei. because of the ai functionality not on th

economy will be positive and i think the imf in their latest report showed there is the upside. >> ite crown prince had a constructive call with president trump yesterday. reports say saudi plans to invest in the u.s.. that is about 55% of saudi gdp. you are the finance minister. where will you get that money from? >> the saudi press agency issued a statement on this. we enjoy a very strong relationship with the u.s. over the years. we have a relationship that spans over eight decades. very strategic, based on economy and trade and will continue. we have over $770 billion of investments in the u.s. this is not really new. this is a combination of investments and procurements. we have very ambitious plans in saudi arabia. vision 2030 is moving as planned and a relationship with the u.s., with your, with china will continue to flourish. >> i think about it from a funding perspective. there are projects saudi arabia has committed to and we talked about three prioritization of goals and the redirection of funds. then there are new projects that saudi is taking on. the world cup. qatar spe

. >> at the imf. >> you are. >> the institution that advocates multilateralism. >> so what do. >> youin this environment? >> what we do is we look at the evidence and here is what we find. it actually confirms that saudi arabia has the right strategy. we have been seeing over the last years increase in protectionist measures, tariffs as well as industrial policy measures. and we have seen countries gravitating towards politically aligned countries in their trade practices. and what the evidence shows is that trade among politically aligned countries is higher than trade across politically aligned countries. but guess which category of countries is performing the best? the countries that are friends with everybody. so there is, in my view, what we see. >> this is. >> the very latest from the world economic forum, one of the last panels of the world economic forum are sara eisen moderating, talking to blackrock's larry fink, christine lagarde, the president of the ecb, a number of other notable people. we'll have much more worldwide exchange coming up right after this break. >> more reg

important and certainly in opposition to what a lot of people are saying, including, you know, the imf points out that every if they just throw a blanket 10% tariff on the rest of the world, that that's, you know, i mean, whatever numbers you want to put on it. but different economists are putting different economic drag numbers on it. i care less about that. i care more about the comments you made about, you know, this is really in the hands of the fed, and you actually think that they actually moved too aggressively already. talk about that. and do you think inflation is a problem? i mean, the bottom line here is you're right. i mean, the point is the point is to try to, you know, identify, hey, inflation is too high. it needs to come down. however it happens. whether it happens, i don't know. but it sounds like you think inflation is a bigger problem. and if it is, i'm going to just say that i think equities are really on the wrong side of that. so the. market's excited about. >> president trump's policies. >> you see that in. >> small. >> business optimism. you see it in. >> ceo op

so the imf by 2029 has about as third in g7 that candid and he was. you telling the committee today both u.s. and canada are -- >> high sustained growth is what we set out for manifest growth. that looks be an important light on the graph. i also want toto make it clear r voters, for the public, that what that translates into for them is being better off, that they've got more money in the front pocket. >> which is not put numbers on that. you said you just want to see real household income go up. you've been a pilot since 19 -- we put numbers on that have better people feel? >> there's two elements. disposable income which is got up but not very much in the last parliament come something like 0.2% so didn't go up materially. the other aspect is productivity. gdp per capita certainly has been going up. it's a bigig part of the proble. we want to put the two together and are measure and track growth of them up. that is not been achieved in previous parliaments. and, therefore, it's a very ambitious thing to go for. that's why we sent it out. it's consi

the imf by 2029 has a start in the g7 behind canada and the u.s. you're telling the committee today -- >> high sustained growth is what we set out for. i also want to make it clear for voters, for the public, that the public is feeling better off. -- is being better off. >> what you have not put numbers. you just you want to see real household income goa. you put the numbers on how much better people will feel? >> there's two elements, disposable income which did not go up very much the last parliament. like 0.2% so it didn't go up materially. the other aspect is productivity. gdp per capita certainly hasn't been going up. as part of the problem. we want to put the two together and our measure. and drive both of them up. that has not been achieved in previous parliaments. it's a very ambitious thing to go for. so we're going to need to really unleash business potential in order to fit that admission. my committee has been talking to hundreds of businesses over the last month, what they say to me clearly is the combined impact of the national insura

imf was saying 3.3% globally over the next couple of years.ill come down if the story comes down and continues the way it is today. that is why you are seeing that locker and part of the curve come down. that steepness of the curve that has been a benefit for financials and banks will start to go away a little bit so it starts to shift the story. i actually think it gives the fed more room to take this pause because volatility is continuing to go up. vix is up 30% this morning, and it was a net speculative short position over the weekend. volatility give the fed more time to pause. lisa: there are these competing narratives that are hard for me to get my head around. you have the ai revolution that may or may not transpire as a result of greater efficiency, the fed grappling with expectations in the economy, and then you have politics over lying on top of that, which is part of the reason why people were saying bonds were selling off. which story are you paying most attention to? what is your lone star at a time of so many crosscurrents? victo

however, the irony that hangs over any discussion about, say, the imf or the bretton woods institutionsld war ii global order was built on, and it was assumed that the core of the system, i.e. the us, was more stable financially than anywhere else. if we are moving into a world where investors are getting worried about the outlook for bonds, then it's going to be questionable whether we're still in that pattern. and you just have to look at what's happening with mortgage rates to see how this is feeding through to the way that american households are looking at the future right now. >> again, mortgage rates over 7% not getting better. the economy again, people are even questioning whether the fed may have cut interest rates a little too soon. and as everybody who watches this show knows, i spent my time in econ 101 at the university of alabama in the back row reading sports illustrated. but even i understand tax cuts are used to stimulate an economy that needs stimulation. right now, our problem is we're actually on on a tipping point where we may be overheated. so you you add, you exte

ken was with us from the imf. this time around he has doubts around whether we see that. on the sidewalk. jonathan: that is a different complaint. up next, former secretary of state john kerry, speaker the house paul ryan, the coca-cola coo. from davos, switzerland, this is bloomberg. ♪ the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. >> they are not getting the economy to slow. >> they are improving in valuations. >> i would not say recession is around the corner but is not as many miles away as it was at one time. >> we are more concerned about the debt and deficit today then we have been in a while. >> it is hard to have a crystal ball about inflation right now. it's a much less certain picture. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance

there is not any firm evidence in the imf date at yet. logic behind the fact that if you are going to be impacted by u.s. sanctions, it's in your interest to stop using the u.s. dollar. china has set up a different payment system for example. it would appear logical that if you were to issue more and more sanctions that you will eventually chase countries away from using the dollar. so, there is i think a logic in that. and then it comes back to how far can tariffs be used as a replacement to this different type of statecraft where foreign policy aims can be used by tariffs potentially. not just economic policy aims. jonathan: before you go, help me out with something before you leave. how do you explain the difference between governor waller and president hammock on the fmc. monetary policies are only moderately restrictive. the governor said he is open to plenty of rate cuts in 2025. what's that about? jane: it is surprising. we have this in the bank of england and the bank of japan. this is why there is a whole counsel when it comes to

the imf says it's 116 trillion. the united states. but productivity will take they. >> become the summa. >> laude. >> and what. >> happens in productivity is an important. >> ingredient for. >> the growth. >> in real gdp. >> then the. >> problem i have. is always the same. it's debt and deficit okay. >> we spent. >> 7 trillion. we took in five. the government has to grow revenues and. >> they do it by growing gdp. >> obviously getting a more. >> practical tax. >> dynamic. >> for example. >> certain things. and then you look at the stock market. which is. >> a. >> function of earnings. >> for companies. >> the revenue growth, gross. >> margins. >> g&a taxes. >> and the most important. >> thing. >> which is. >> the multiple. >> the multiple is. >> a function of interest. >> rates, which are a function of debt. >> and deficit. >> that's a function. >> of confidence. and confidence is terrific. >> the thing. >> that has happened. >> that from the businesses i talked to, the. >> confidence factor is. >> materially different in terms of how

yesterday the imf said it was the strongest in the world.rankly, global developments are moving in a good direction. especially in the middle east. yes, he comes back into office with a congress that is republican in both houses, but this time the leadership is loyal to him. there were conservative republicans last time, this time trump republicans and this time we know that the cabinet was chosen because of its loyalty to him. >> what about that, kevin madden? trump coming in with this audacious show of force and it's true that he is now term limited with slim majorities. the idea is that he if he is able to enact any part of his agenda, he has to move quickly, beyond what he spelled out in executive orders. >> the high level of determination that he has and his political allies and activists who support him around the country is driven by the fact that he has this mandate that he won and an advantage and a clear mandate on the issues that he believes sent him here, the economy, addressing inflation and securing the border, addressing issue

however, the irony that hangs over any discussion about, say, the imf or the bretton woods institutionsn of economic strength, the model that other countries around the world wanted to follow. that was what the post-world war ii global order was built on, and it was assumed that the core of the system, i.e. the us, was more stable financially than anywhere else. if we are moving into a world where investors are getting worried about the outlook for bonds, then it's going to be questionable whether we're still in that pattern. and you just have to look at what's happening with mortgage rates to see how this is feeding through to the way that american households are looking at the future right now. >> again, mortgage rates over 7% are not getting better. the economy again. people are even questioning whether the fed may have cut interest rates a little too soon. and as everybody who watches this show knows, i spent my time in econ 101 at the university of alabama in the back row, reading sports illustrated. but even i understand tax cuts are used to stimulate an economy that needs stimula