steve liesman. my next guest says he's becoming more convinced that we could get across the board tariffs of 15% or so, maybe going up there on particular countries or goods. let's bring in adam posen, president of the peterson institute for international economics. it's great to have you here. and as steve was saying, i mean, there's so much uncertainty about how to price this in. what would you say? >> well. thank you. >> for having me, kelly. and i. >> think the way to price. >> it. >> in is twofold. >> first. >> as the. >> market's already moved so much over the last few months and should have moved earlier. the fed was. >> never going to do all the cutting that they were. pricing in six months or eight months ago. and i think they're still expecting too many cuts. so you can just say on the economic fundamentals there's no need for that level of cuts. but the second thing is, as you say on the tariffs, and governor waller has his right to and is a very good record to argue for what he's looking

. >> the fed minutes steve liesman is there. steve what can you tell us. >> minutes from the december for the january meeting are replete with mentions of concern both to the upside and the downside for the economy, from potential policies from the trump administration. the committee says that it's well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook. the fed wants to see further inflation progress before making additional adjustments to the funds target. as long as the economy remains near maximum employment. quote, there's a high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the committee to take a careful approach. trade and immigration policies were cited as having the potential to hinder the disinflation process, as business contacts were telling the fed, they, quote, would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. they were also reporting an increase in uncertainty, generally from changes coming to government federal government policies. however, there were also expressing opt

so, steve liesman, we don't know a lot. we know some. and every time you're on tv, i feel like there's a breaking headline. >> yeah. >> which adds to the story. so i'm just going to leave it there. >> for you. i don't have we have some breaking data from our survey. of course we do. but whether or not there's breaking news, we'll just leave that up to the fates. short term tariffs that are part of a negotiations likely have modest effects. economically long term tariffs. they can have much more far reaching impacts on business inflation and jobs. that's not news. what might be news for the moment, the 27 respondents to a cnbc fed survey over the weekend finds most expect tariffs to be a short term affair. in fact, 44% say they'll be around for less than three months, 26% say 3 to 6 months. so add those two together. somebody check my math. 70% believe it will be six months or shorter. there is a contingent that says, well, it might be around a little bit longer, but that right now is a small contingent with a chunky contingent. they're e

or just the beginning, let's bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman, along with our global supply chain reporter, lori ann larocco. welcome to both of you. steve, again, fast moving situation. >> are we. >> reporting this or not? that's what i don't know. >> the president. >> has said. >> we haven't agreed on tariffs yet with mexico. you can look at. >> the market confirmed that. he said that. >> look we can have megan. >> on in a moment. >> but you. >> can. look at the. >> market and see we have not moved on that headline. >> fascinating. >> they are right now keying in on what the mexican president said on x. >> this morning. >> we were able to confirm. >> that appeared to confirm. yes, exactly. so for now we'll. >> go. >> with that was confirmed. right. so president trump kelly, here's what's interesting about this. he's linked the new tariffs to progress on issues like fentanyl, immigration and trade deficits. so that suggests that things mexico, canada and china can do to undo them. but he's made other comments that suggest maybe, hey, they could be more permanent. for

steve liesman has got the details here, steve. >> melissa. yes. cnbc has learned that many economic data sets from census.gov are now not available to the public census.gov website. when you call up normal data sets, like how many people live in the country. population estimates says access to the data is, quote, forbidden. some data experts have found a workaround for some of these data sets, including going to another website, data.census.gov. but it's not all there and not all easy to do. data normally downloaded by economists is just not there, according to several sources we've talked to. for example, maureen, harvard analytics, who provides data to cnbc, says my staff tried numerous economic releases and we could not access them from through census.gov. mike horrigan, president of the upjohn institute for employment research, says when was the last time the census just stopped publishing data? that just doesn't happen. it suggests that there may be internal pressures not to publish data that we rely on, and we need to figure out if that's tr

let's bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman. steve, welcome. and what can you tell us? >> you know, fed officials, the unknowns of fiscal. policy seem equal right now to the problem. >> with inflation for figuring out. >> where policy is going. several fed officials making that clear yesterday. rate cuts are on hold until inflation comes down. and the effects of fiscal policy come into better focus. raphael bostic, the atlanta fed president, said very succinctly. pervasive ambiguity calls for caution and humility. while the effects of uncertainty haven't shown up in any data, it is tracked in several indices. here's one the economic policy uncertainty index. it shot up after the election, came back down, and now is the highest it's been since the pandemic. in fact, it's higher than at any time during the biden or first trump administrations outside of the pandemic. and you can see it's back about 60% of that uncertainty level from the pandemic level there. the trade policy uncertainty index, it has never been higher, far surpassing the levels from when president trump p

steve liesman is here with that. and maybe steve, it was the later speaker of the day who had the biggest impact in the way we should think about what the fed might be thinking could happen down the road. >> i think that's right, scott. you know, and you and i were talking yesterday about the minutes. had the minutes yesterday and three speeches today. it's clear that the uncertainty you were just talking about over fiscal policy from the trump administration, it has taken a central role in the minds of central bankers, fed officials. they seem more willing to amuse publicly about the potential economic effects of these coming policies from the administration. atlanta fed president raphael bostic, he said this morning that, quote, pervasive ambiguity calls for caution and humility when it comes to making policy. bostic still sees two cuts this year, but he said, hey, there's a pretty significant amount of uncertainty around that call right now. chicago president austan goolsbee, he said the more tariffs look like a co

rebecca patterson steve liesman. >> yeah. and i think i got it correct steve. they pronounce it. zenith over there. all right. lots of people apparently were. >> eagerly awaiting. >> this morning's job numbers. and even after we get the jobs numbers, we're still trying to get a proper read on this economy here. now, to give us his take away is national urban. >> league ceo marc morial. >> also the former. >> mayor of new orleans. >> where apparently. there's like some big football game on sunday. we'll get to that, marc. >> but from. >> where you sit, how do you see. the american economy? >> well, yeah. great to be with you. >> this jobs. >> report is a continuation of a trend of continuing job creation. and it's sort of the punctuation point on the previous administration and. >> the. >> starting point. >> for how. >> the jobs. >> market will perform for the next administration on its watch. my main. concern now. >> is that a. combination of. tariffs and over. >> the horizon, extreme fiscal budget cuts could. be recessionary. >> on one. >> hand. >> tariffs will introduce inflati

speaking of, let's get out to steve liesman. steve. what's happening?oolsbee, the chicago fed president, kelly, making some pointed and cautionary remarks about tariffs in a speech he's giving in detroit. he's saying the fed will take into account anything that raised prices in the making of monetary policy, says the fed will be in a potentially difficult position trying to figure out if price increases are from overheating or from tariffs as the source of inflation. the latter the former. you would not look through the latter. you might. tariff effects, he says, could be larger and longer impacting than in 2018 because things about the economy are different, he says. because many u.s. imports, by the way, are intermediate goods. inflationary impact of tariffs could be more widespread. it's possible, he says. this is something you guys have talked a lot about to stack tariffs on top of tariffs as something goes back and forth over the border several times. supply chain, she says, are more fragile in the short run. and if you want to talk at the end of t

joining us now, cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman explain it. >> well. >> it's a complicatedtry, and they've been working over several months to count them over the course of a three year period from like 21 to 24. and what they have now estimated is there were some 3.5 million additional people in this country, of which it's estimated some 2.3 million were working. so this will be tomorrow the largest upward revision to what is called the household survey. now, just to be clear, the household survey gives us the unemployment rate. it gives us different ethnic data by race and gender, whereas the one that's really followed by wall street is the payroll survey. this one has been pretty good and showed pretty strong job growth all along. the separate household survey was weak and people would say, you know what, maybe the economy is weak because that's what the household survey shows. well, there'll be some downward adjustment to the payroll survey, but a big upward adjustment to the household survey showing that we indeed did have strong job growth over the past several years.

i want to bring in cnbc's steve liesman here in studio with me at the big board, nbc's brian chung.e numbers. what do they tell us? >> yeah, well, with the numbers, it's always good to add some context here. so let's start off with that 143,000 figure that you just mentioned. yes, that is how many jobs were added in the month of january. that's a bit of a slower pace than what we had seen in terms of monthly job gains in november and december, but certainly better than some of the summer months that we had gotten in the months in the year prior. now, again, as you mentioned, though, this was a bit of a disappointment, disappointment from the wall street standpoint because some economists were projecting something a little bit closer to 169,000 jobs for the month. but i want to point out that one silver lining we did get in this report is that the unemployment rate in this country did decline. it just ticked down slightly to 4% as of the month of january. again, it's been trending up since the beginning of january 2023, but a marked improvement from some of the higher unemployment ra

steve liesman. my next guest expects the president will negotiate down from here in terms of tariffs, while he says the aspect of the new administration that has most surprised him and exceeded their expectations is actually doge, which looks very likely to drive real federal workforce cuts. but will it be enough to close the deficit? here to talk about that and why he thinks things could get more choppy in washington in the coming months, is tobin marcus, head of u.s. policy and politics at wolfe research. and i think, tobin, that's where the market is focused. you have a bit of a warning in here based on what you're seeing, that, you know, debt ceiling shutdown fight in march and obviously passing the extension of the tax cuts. why do you think those look a little more uncertain now? >> well, look, i. >> mean, all the fiscal. >> negotiations that are going to require bipartisanship, certainly keeping the government open, possibly. >> raising the debt ceiling. >> depending on whether or not. republ

. >> cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman is here to tell us why. steve, over to you. >> thanks, kelly. yeah. with tomorrow's jobs report, the government is set to release the largest upward revision to population, labor force growth and jobs in the history of the household survey. the reason the census bureau, using new methodology to account for the surge in immigration over the past several years. it's a big number. the government now expected to announce a 3.5 million upward revision to population, dwarfing past january revisions. you can see there. while it accounts for immigration over the past several years, it's going to put all of the change in january of this year rather than revise the prior year's data. that's the custom for how it does it. goldman sachs estimating this upward revision of population at 3.5 million, will add to the household survey 2.3 million jobs and only marginally affect the unemployment rate by four basis points. this should not impact tomorrow's payroll number, the one that everybody watches, which is estimated at 16

. >> cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. welcome to. >> you both. >> diane, i am going to go. >> right to you, because last. >> time we talked, just. >> a week or two ago, we. >> were still thinking. >> a couple of cuts. and now you think they're. >> are they really. >> off the table entirely? >> i think they're off the table. >> if we really believe that tariffs are coming through. and i do believe we're going to. >> see some tariffs. now how much we. >> see in tariffs. does matter. >> and how much. >> they stay. >> on matters. >> how. >> long they stay on. >> but once you put. >> tariffs in motion and. >> once you actually apply them they're very hard to peel back. and the escalation. >> as. >> we saw. >> even with. >> just a few. days of. >> escalation that. >> we saw in the. >> beginning of february. was pretty dramatic. so things are moving at a fast pace. but this is important because the fed has enough information today to feel confident. >> that they. >> move to the sidelines. >> the economy is on solid footing, the

steve liesman is standing by with. flash fed survey estimates from wall street forecasters about the impact of the new tariffs on gdp, inflation and jobs. leslie, we'll start with you. >> hey, mike. yeah, the. >> u.s. banking system is already. experiencing some of the slowest growth since. >> shortly after the financial crisis. >> tariffs. well, they could make it worse. we have some relatively recent empirical research to lean on here. the new york fed recently looked at the 2018 2019 trade war to study its effect on credit extension, and the researchers found that the increased uncertainty around trade policy caused. >> banks to pull. >> back on lending and. >> tighten their. >> terms, particularly. >> for the borrowers most exposed to tariffs. the researchers. >> went pretty granular here, constructing a model based on borrower level trade uncertainty and. detailed data on banks loan exposures. >> they found. that one standard. >> deviation increase in. >> bank exposure. >> to trade uncertainty is. >> associated wi

max wasserman of miramar today and of course, our own steve liesman. and sometimes when the market's down, well, that's just because there are more sellers than buyers, as the saying goes. as our dear bill griffith used to say. my next guest is tracking the options flows and does see some bearish signs in retail and in homebuilders. chris murphy is co-head of derivative strategy at susquehanna. chris, good to see you. sort of tell us the world how it looks from your point of view. >> sure. >> i mean, specifically. >> on. >> the retail. >> the x-art. >> is a retail etf. >> and we. saw an outsized bearish trade yesterday. >> a march put. >> spread buyer i agree that. >> you know one. >> earnings miss. >> you know doesn't. >> you. >> know tell. >> the. >> story for a sector. >> however 70%. >> of the. >> underlying by market cap for. >> this retail etf reports by march. >> so you know. >> this is a clear bet that we're going to continue to see earnings. >> misses or earnings. that just. >> aren't good enough if they're priced to perfection. so that was th

steve liesman joins us now because, steve, this is a week in which there was a lot of fed speak that leaned decidedly hawkish. >> yeah. if you were hoping for rate cuts this year, you might want to have to take a step back and wait a little longer. i think one is still priced in, but i think the change this week, scott, was you still have this inflation problem. and by the way, those numbers today in the university of michigan, inflation expectations were not helpful to the fed. you have this inflation problem. but more and more now what's happening scott is fed officials are taking that inflation issue and putting the issue of fiscal policy on certain key at the same level. so saying, look, we don't see ourselves cutting rates until one we get the inflation problem still heading back towards 2% by the way. they have confidence that's going to happen. and two, that we ultimately have some clarity on where these fiscal policies are going. virtually every fed speaker this week and there were quite a few mention it, some a bit more concern than others, even like talking about negative s

i'm becky quick along with mike santoli and steve liesman joe. >> and andrew are. >> both out today. >> guys it's good to see both of you. >> thank you. good to be here. >> with you. >> let's take a look at what's. >> been happening with. >> the u.s. equity futures at this hour. >> you're going to see. >> there are red arrows. indicating to the open, at least. >> at this point, with. >> the dow indicated. >> off by about 85 points. >> s&p futures. >> off by seven. the nasdaq down by eight. this comes after declines across the. >> board for all of. >> the major. >> averages yesterday. >> but those declines. >> were paired. >> pretty massively. freely through the. >> course of the day. >> we were talking about declines. >> of something. >> like 48 points or 46 points for the s&p 500. the dow. down by just 123 at. >> the end. >> of the session. the nasdaq. >> down by a couple. >> of hundred points. >> versus what we had. >> seen in the premarket. >> yeah, we were. >> all down about. percent and a half on the s&p 500. even more than that, just about an hour. >> after the close, you. >> g

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he's speaking earlier this afternoon, steve liesman joining us now with the headlines that you think we need to know about. most of all, steve. >> yeah, scott, i bring this up because i'm hearing more and more fed officials being less and less reluctant to discuss the tariff issue. and in fact, in the case of the chicago fed president being more cautionary about it and saying this is an issue for us and it's a more serious issue, it seems like before they were like, hands off, we're not commenting. they're a little bit more willing to comment in terms of the things that are being said. goolsbee saying, hey, anything that raises prices, we have to take into account, it's going to be difficult for us to figure out if there's higher inflation, if it comes from overheating, or if it comes from the tariffs and the tariff. and the pass along could be worse this time than in 2018. in part, scott, because all the easy stuff that you might have substituted out of from china that could be gone. what's left could be essential items from china that when you have this higher tariff, you have to pa

i'm becky quick along with mike santoli and steve liesman joe. >> and andrew are. >> both out today.e both of you. >> thank you. good to be here. >> with you. >> let's take a look at what's. >> been happening with. >> the u.s. equity futures at this hour. >> you're going to see. >> there are red arrows. indicating to the open, at least. >> at this point, with. >> the dow indicated. >> off by about 85 points. >> s&p futures. >> off by seven. the nasdaq down by eight. this comes after declines across the. >> board for all of. t

steve liesman was following that for us. and the word of the moment is hold, right. >> hold or hard stop. i would say scott fed officials making clear in the minutes to the january meeting that they're on hold, as you say, awaiting clarity on the outlook for inflation and new policies from the trump administration. the minute saying the fed is, quote, well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook before adjusting rates. they want to see further progress on inflation before they make any changes. as long, by the way, as the unemployment rate doesn't deteriorate the minute said minutes, saying that specifically a, quote, high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the committee to take a careful approach, and that changes to trade and immigration policy have potential to hinder the disinflationary process. according to the minutes, business contacts are telling the fed they would, quote, attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs and that fed government policies were

are you you're still with us, steve liesman. >> yeah. i'm here. of might have added to demand, which might have added to inflation? i'm getting i'm getting some pushback on twitter and elsewhere about whether a $5,000 doge check would be inflationary. some say that if it goes back to people that they they bank it in savings, and anything not spent by the government would not be inflationary. and it's already been created by the fed. so it's not adding to the money supply, but it just seems to me that it might increase demand in an already strong economy. do you have a feel for whether it's inflationary? >> yeah, i think it's an interesting question, joe. and i think there's a mathematical equation here. and there's a psychological equation. the mathematical one is well, technically if you're taking 5000, that was going to be spent by the government and give it to people to spend. it's kind of a wash in terms of total demand. but you're moving the demand from one place to another, from the demand for government services to, say, demand for consumer

steve liesman is here. he did a flash survey asking a bunch of economists what they saw.riffs did go into place, they expected gdp to go down and inflation to go up. did you all run your own economic potential impact at the administration? >> you know, we're working on getting the final numbers for the president's budget as we speak. but i can tell you that the growth that we saw in president trump's first term pre-covid is looking like it's going to be a low number compared to what we get when we run all of president policies. >> through the president's budget. >> and again, i would ask people to do this. and i've been very public about this, you know, on your show last fall that if you want to analyze the policy. effect of the trump administration, you need to look at all. >> of them. >> and not just take like a couple of papers that say that tariffs are bad and say, that's the whole thing that's. >> going to happen. >> but if we model the whole thing that we're definitely getting growth. that, as president said, looks like a golden. >> age to us. and as you. >> remembe

i think we are steve liesman and mike santoli. thank you guys both for being here. we'll see you right back here tomorrow. right now it's time for squawk on the street. >> good tuesday morning. >> welcome to. >> squawk on the street i'm carl quintanilla. >> with jim cramer david faber. >> at post nine. >> of the new york stock exchange. >> futures are mixed. >> yields up as. china retaliates a. >> little with tariffs on american oil, coal, nat gas. some ag. >> equipment earnings get more attention today with. >> some lower guidance. and firms like merck. >> and pepsi. our roadmap begins with the trade. tit for. tat china does hit back with tariffs on the us. including targeting energy and google plus. >> we're keeping an. >> eye on shares of palantir. >> why? >> well they are. >> surging after the company. >> posted a strong. >> outlook on what. >> it. >> calls untamed ai demand. >> its ceo. >> expecting a company windfall. >> from elon musk's. government cost cutting efforts. >> and there are. >> also any number. >> of other. >> corporate earnings. >> that we'll tr

on the fallout, though, regarding these headlines, let's turn to our senior economics reporter, steve liesman, steve. >> yeah, i just got the phone with the white house. karl and i can confirm the white house is confirming that the mexican tariffs will be delayed by one month. did not get much opportunity to talk with the official, but the official did confirm. cnbc can confirm that the mexican tariffs will be delayed by one month. so what the mexican president, sheinbaum said, is accurate about this one month delay. let me just turn real quick. karl, do you want to talk about that or should i move on and talk about what the survey says about the economic impact of all this, steve? >> for sure. >> so it is hard, karl, as you may know, to get economists to agree on anything, but they're united in believing that tariffs on china and mexico and canada will reduce u.s. growth and boost inflation, though they disagree on how much every one of the 20 forecasters we surveyed in a cnbc fed survey over the weekend predicting lower gdp in 2025 with an average of -0.6%, all but two forecasting higher in

steve. >> liesman big. >> revisions maybe benchmark annual revisions. >> liesman joins us now. ing it. and that's that's not really a new data point, is it? it's kind of a rear view mirror steve. >> yeah it is joe. but it'll kind of point the way to the issue about immigration. what's going to happen with rick was just talking about is this historic upward revision to population growth and to the labor force, as well as to the jobs in the household survey and some adjustment in the in the establishment survey? but what's happened is the census has now taken account for the three years or four years of immigration, undocumented immigration, document integration, whatever immigration, they're now putting that into the numbers, joe, and it's going to be the biggest upward revision. and it's going to point to the issue of, well, what did how did that undocumented immigration affect the economy? now that we seem to be going the other way? i want to answer your question to rick, though, in a more clinical way, if you don't mind, which is what would i be looking for? rick used that ter

the nasdaq off by one. 60 steve liesman is here.anuary adp private payrolls. estimated 183,000. >> this is the private payroll company adp. with its. >> estimate of national. >> private payrolls. >> and you can see their. >> goods not. >> doing so great. but it's. >> all in the service. >> sector 190,000. >> and there's the non-farm payroll estimate in and around exactly where adp is. >> at. >> 169,000 for this friday. >> they revised. >> up december. >> to one from 122. >> to 176. that's a little closer. >> to where the government was with the bls report. >> and then pretty. >> good distribution across. business size here. >> 39,000 for. >> small business, 92,000 for medium. and 69,000 for. >> large business. >> and then pretty good spread. >> again across different. >> industries again, but all in the service sector trade. >> transport and utilities. >> up 56. >> leisure and hospitality up. >> 54,000 and education and health services down. sorry up 20,000 with professional. professional business services up 14,000. and there's man

our own steve liesman is still here on set with us.be welcomed this morning by neel kashkari, minneapolis federal reserve president, a longtime friend of squawk box. neil, thanks for being here. >> thanks, steve, for having me. >> great. listen, normally i'd ask you right away about the jobs report, but we were just having a conversation about the gap between what the fed has been doing in terms of lowering interest rates and the behavior of the ten year. and i'm wondering, as a federal reserve policymaker, a guy used to work at goldman, used to save the country working at treasury or help save the country during the great financial crisis. what do you make of the behavior of the ten year? how worrisome is it to you as a policymaker? of course, now it's eased back a bit from where it's been. >> you know, it's. >> not worrisome, but it's. >> important to try to understand what's driving it. >> so i spend. >> and my colleagues spend a lot of time trying to dig into the details to understand the moves. as you know, since we. >> started cu