the cbo is responsible for that. a change in tariff that's put in place under the president's executive authority changes the baseline but does not result in a cost estimate of legislation in something using executive authority is not legislation but we are set up to provide information too policymakers on the budgetary and economic econs of executive actions. you can see this in a publication we put out in december of last year its office and for the change in administration the form is a letter its leader schumer, chairman of the white house who is in the chair of the budget committee in sherman white and then chair of the finance committee on the budgetary and economican impacts of large changes in tariffs 50 i'm sorry it was 10 percentage points an additional 50 percentage points. we look at that the conventional of the static estimate and then the dynamic revenue, inflation impact look at the macroeconomic impact as best we could. we are doing that now through the tariffs put in place we are assessing those. wit

cbo is the wrong place for that kid. so, yeah send them our way and look at the website. >> thank you very much, that was informative thank you. [applause] >> is this morning the national association for business economics is holding their 2025 policy conference here in washington. live coverage here on cspan 3. >> good morning. good morning and thank you for getting up early in the morning for a doubleheader of physical policy discussions you just heard phil and now we have a great panel to talk about fiscal policy and the deficit. i'm head of research and honored to be at the conference and honored to be on the panel for these distinguished guests. the panel said they want to jump in without any introductory speeches that is exactly what we're going to do. >> all right. so thank you all for being here. we just heard phil again give a little overview of cbo's baseline projections. to get started now you have heard that brief summary what do you find most concerning about this story that cbo is telling. >> i think whenev

that's the reduction in the cbo contracting amount. okay. thank you. so when we look at revenue, do you can see that federal revenue grows, state revenue grows those are heavily associated with the ihs program . local revenue declined slightly not not quite $2 million because there are some growth in other areas in the us but it's close to that. so general fund is down a little bit little less than 2 million dignity fund stays the same. we talked about this a little bit a month ago. the dignity fund legislation calls for the dignity fund to grow by $3 million a year except when the deficit gets beyond that certain amount under the november forecast we are beyond that that amount the deficit is big enough to stop growth in the dignity fund. we will ultimately know whether there's growth in the dignity fund or not when the march forecast comes through, kelly the chairman we'll talk a little bit about that a few slides down from here. so i think those are the big things on sources. let's look at type of expenses . >> okay. again, when we look at type of e

you know the caller called out the congressional budget office, the cbo. the partisan group that does the budgeting for the government. and if you go take a look at their work, it is not consistent with the idea that the tax cuts were paid for, just the opposite. you know, i am all for lower tax rates and i think they are key. but we need to figure out for weight -- ways to pay for them if we are providing that. host: jesse in milwaukee, making under 100,000. your turn. caller: i have one question and goes back to what he was talking about before, that the tech stocks, the ones that are really hot and making a lot of money, but it also sounds like he was going to say that there is no diversity within this. could you elaborate more on that? guest: yes. you have heard the magnificent seven. there are seven technology stocks. everyone from nvidia, who is benefiting from selling all of the chips related to the boom in artificial intelligence to apple to meta. those companies are driving the stock market. if you look at the increase of the value stocks overall,

cbo director discusses the agencies work with congress. panelist mugginess talks on potential impacts of the actions of the department artificial intelligence and data protections.

are you familiar with the taxpayer the cbo vigue act? >> yes. >> would that make the federal government work better for american people if we adopted it >> yes. that was based on recommendations from a g.a. so. study where we stidhamed the impact of the c.f.o. act over 30 years of implementation and some suggestions to make it stronger. >> does that also address improper payments and fraud? >> with some additional provisions added it could and should. and i'm happy to provide additional suggestions in that regard many >> could you talk about improper payments? refresh or memory we don't mean the government deliberately throws minute from the rooftop. >> no, that is not in the official statutory definition and i would not support that. the official definition is it is a payment that was, that shouldn't have been made or made in the wrong amount. some of them can be an general paymentment no however are overpayments many probably 90%. they happy when money is given to somebody who is really not intelligible to receive the benefit or the pa

we heard from the cbo this morning this could amount of $4 trillion on the deficit if we get additional measures put on that, $4.5 trillion. one interesting thing we also asked on the survey is how much deficit off that we could get from doge and what economists expect on that front. a majority think we will get $500 billion or less in savings from doge. really large mismatch between revenue losses and spending cuts . one of the things we are looking at at morgan stanley is the fiscal players tied to these doge cuts. in the survey one of the winners on how to address the deficit is progrowth policies. if you are cutting transfers such as medicaid to individuals, these are the programs that carry very high fiscal multipliers. almost 2x on fiscal multipliers. we see a lot of confusion when it comes to the best approach to stimulate growth, increase revenues, reduce spending in an inefficient way. emily: that points to what is been an intractable problem. a lot of well informed economist can't come to a consensus on how to tackle this, does -- give a moment's pause. that is what we heard t

the most recent cbo score of that -- site neutrality, yes. the most recent score of that is 150 $1 billion in savings over 10 years and that is the entire health care system. it is not just savings within medicare, it will have an impact on other programs as well as the private sector. there are lots of examples of that of paying differently for services. >> can you provide those services to me? >> we will do that. there is also the adjustments made every year between fee for service in medicare and medicare advantage. and the legislative commission, i appoint the members, one for medicare, one for medicaid. in the medpac area they estimate there are over payments being made to the managed-care portion of $40 billion. so we have recommendations to make that a fair comparison so we are not overpaying. >> thank you. i yield back. >> sorry. thank you, mr. chairman. you said today, quote, there is a need for change would how we do so matters. i cannot agree with you more. we need to ensure our government and its agencies and programs are running

cbo estimating $20 trillion additional in debt over the next ten years. and of course, we didn't over 220 years, we didn't have $10 trillion of debt accumulated. jonathan lemire there are so many fact checks we have to go through there. one of them is donald trump kept saying, and we're going to be talking about ukraine in a minute. but donald trump kept saying that, that we've we've spent $350 billion defending ukraine, giving ukraine. it's just not it's not even close to true. he's also said the united states has given more than europe. that's also not close to being true. i mean, i think the numbers somewhere around like 140 billion. but even of that, i think only 80 billion of it has been delivered. one additional thing, one additional thing that's very important to say here. when you listen to administration officials, it sounds as if we wrote a check to zelensky and said, here you go. no, that's not actually the case for so much of this funding, billions of dollars have gone to american factories. american workers, american jobs. >> this this. >> ha

economic workforce development, there's city build, there's the unions, there's the puc, there's the cbos that help and identify folks that are available and then ensuring that those folks in coordination with the unions are being then dispatched to the project commissioner rc thanks president stacey and and thanks ben when the hello and to the general manager for for bringing this presentation thanks especially because i came in about five minutes late and for your willingness potentially even to hold for for for just a little bit for for me to join because this is of particular interest to myself and i think because it's really impressive to see what you and the team have done with with these policies over the last ten years at this point and in change for folks that may not be aware and in fact jim robinson and i were having this conversation during our tour of mountain town the last week that a lot of the the origin of these policies ben ben knows and folks like jim or to carney because he was there this was really having these policies was part of a conversation i mean going back dec