we expect the ecb to cut rates this week. — we expect the ecb to cut rates this week.eek. it has _ we expect the ecb to cut rates this week. it has been- we expect the ecb to cut rates this week. it has been on- we expect the ecb to cut rates this week. it has been on the i this week. it has been on the rise _ this week. it has been on the rise for— this week. it has been on the rise for six— this week. it has been on the rise for six months _ this week. it has been on the rise for six months now- this week. it has been on the rise for six months now but l this week. it has been on the . rise for six months now but the ecb should _ rise for six months now but the ecb should cut _ to the world of crypto now because after a rough few weeks for digital currencies the industry has bitcoin and ether have soared around 20% from their lows them in a post on sunday, along with xrp, solana in a �*strategic reserve' of crypto held he's promised more detail at a white house crypto that's restored investor confidence after weeks of losses after the trump administration appeared aw

it)...” months ecb to uééta specifically 7 specifically to 7 5 of7 �*easing to asing of area?at the 7 that the main 7 t it: the main 7 t it is the main 7 t it is note main 7 t it is note mair this this j to 55:5 5 55 55 5 5559555 of 55ntin55ti5r1 5559555 of antinuat is! growth is a sluggish, but it is mostly due to the external components, domestic demand in europe is firming and normally the conditions for continuation in more consumer spending are in more consumer spending are in that. on top of that, you have many uncertainties. to the us... have many uncertainties. to the us. .. 5,5 , 5, have many uncertainties. to the us... , 5, 5, have many uncertainties. to the us. .. exactly we have got to ask you. _ us. .. exactly we have got to ask you. how _ us. .. exactly we have got to ask you, how could - us. .. exactly we have got to ask you, how could us - us. .. exactly we have got to | ask you, how could us tariffs hit inflation?— hit inflation? yes, that is difficult that is it for business today. hello, i'm chetan pathak, with your latest sports news. we start with continui

can ecb cuts provide a cushion for the european economy?al: i think in the near term, the cuts from the ecb can help a little bit. but the defense spending i think will take time. these things take time not only to agree but to take effect. the supply chain is quite long in terms of defense spending. that will help eventually. the other thing about defense spending where a lot of money is coming from alternative vehicles, the idea of in the u.k. money that was going to go towards infrastructure may now go towards defense. this is economically less productive in terms of boosting the output potential, though in years to come it might be hard to quantify near-term, but years to come we may talk about this productivity puzzle. spending money on something that is necessary but will come at the expense of capacity, that infrastructure investment. i think it will help but the second round effects of growth of that stimulus will be more muted. tom: look at the second round effects of that stimulus. hetal mehta, head of it, research at st. james's

the ecb is still in a rate easing cycle.atalysts on the political and possibly energy side. and by the way, the currency has been devalued. yes, it is pop, but that place has been a malaise for a long time. lisa: how much is not wanting to unravel the complicated story in the u.s., might be something with respect to uncertainty, may be a hangover from the past? find your narrative, it's very confusing. christopher: when you were talking about that, should we talk about momentum, europe? lisa: it is a flow of his own type of thing in the white house. people feel like they have no conviction of anything and it is hard to get an angle. is that why people are going outside the u.s., they don't want to think about it? christopher: to a degree it is but you have these catalysts. it is very hard, as you point out, to handicap the back row. we can talk about tariffs as much as we want but we don't know what will happen. the only way to hedge that uncertainty, you need a certain allocation to volatility to hedge that. one thing that

they will draw on a paper we wrote for the ecb conference last summer where we identified tightening cycles and advanced economies from 1970 to 2024. and it draws on new work that i'm doing this summer. with that what happened? we know the story. the series of unprecedentedded d shocks in 2020. demand and supply collapse and demand comes back faster than supplies. in central banks around the world were slow to see the risk and to start to tighten. and as a way to capture how close central bearchtion -- banks were and to understand how normal it was. we look at macro variables and we look at the timing of the first rate hike. the lift off of the tightening cycle. the light blue is the timing historically from 1970 to 2019, the dark blue is the post pan pandemic tightening. you can see all countries were a lot slower to tighten than historically happened given what was happening in the macro economy. so that didn't suggest it was just the u.s. the frame work review that they were late. it suggested there were wide-spread global factors. was the forecast missed to pick up on inflation.

there's an ecb decision coming this week where they are widely expected to cut rates.ation data that would lead them to that point. and then the beige book of course the fed pays attention to what the districts are saying around the economy. the president will address. congress said he's going to be not hold back on that so eagerly awaiting his speech. and then the tariffs are expected on canada and mexico tomorrow, unless there's some sort of a deal that president trump can work out, by the way, on jobs, when there's a lot more focus on jobs, because we are getting some signs that the job market is weakening further. what rick just reported inside the ism survey, the jobless claims number last week was very elevated, for instance. so we'll see. and it matters because if we do see some more pronounced weakness in jobs, that's what causes the fed to pivot away from its on hold stance. they said they were watching out for weakness in jobs. they want to preserve the jobs jobs market, so that could lead them to cut sooner rather than later. we're about two and a half cuts