and there's the nfib's uncertainty index at its second highest level ever, higher than at any time in the first trump administration. yesterday, kevin hassett, the president's top economic advisor, on squawk box, referring to a paper that he wrote in 2016 that found a higher probability of a recession in the first year of an administration paper, found that from 1946 to 2016, 46% of all recessions happened within 12 months of the presidential election. that compares with a normal expectation or distribution of just 25%. part of the reason could be the uncertainty around elections and policy. that is, in his own words, more extreme than markets expect. but we have moved now from uncertainty over policy, kelly to i think the markets think certainty of bad policy. >> well, that's why i wanted to play up the nfib angle here. i mean this survey. >> was so people. >> are big supporters. >> of the. >> exactly, exactly. and so if you're watching like tay they have to pass on capitol hill, you know, this package that will get us through the shutdown. then they've got the big budget bill. so yo

steve liesman is taking a look at the odds following this fresh data from nfib today.arl. good morning. the nfib small business optimism survey falling for a second straight month while maintaining most of its post-election gains. but uncertainty remains near an all time high. the national federation of independent business optimism index fell to 100.7 for post-election high of around 105, hovering around its long term average, though it's down a lot like a lot of sentiment indicators, but not, you would say, at recessionary levels right here. expectations in the survey, they were a bit more worrisome. the net percent of those who expect the economy to improve declined expecting higher real sales, saying it's a good time to expand and increasing employment. all of those were net negative. and this nfib uncertainty index, just one of them out there, second highest level ever higher than at any time you can see there than than in the first trump administration. now a research paper from 2016 points out there is an elevated chance of recession in the year after a presiden

we were talking about the nfib survey.ing the highest number of people expecting worst financial conditions in the next year in 15 months, and the share expecting higher unemployment has the highest since 2023. that and ifb survey, as we showed you, the second-highest level ever for their uncertainty index. and a 10 point drop in small business confidence. people are looking out of -- at the headlines out of washington and they are not feeling great. i will leave you with one chart that might be important. this is the new york fed's question about, what you think is going to happen to stock prices? it kind of speaks to itself. jonathan: not a pretty picture. appreciate it. here is the take from lindsey piegza, saying the following. the clear rise in hiring hesitancy has some investors raising the process -- the probability of a downturn or even a domestic recession. lindsay joins us now for more. let's talk about that. we have seen a major sentiment shift. the soft data, the survey data has cratered in some places. when yo

the nfib put out a report. small business optimism finances to be far higher than it ever was than the previous administration. there is a lot of reason to be optimistic. again, the american people, c.e.o.'s, people on wall street and main street should bet on this president. is he a -- he is a deal maker, he is a business man. he wants to restore wealth to the united states of america. michael. good to see you. reporter: hi, karoline. two questions, if i may. will the administration be providing any relief to states affected by the ontario power tariff? karoline: well, the president has made it very clear that canada would be very wise not to shut off electricity for the american people. and we hope that does not happen. as for what would happen, if that does take place, i'll leave it to the president to make those decisions. reporter: does president trump share the justice department's concern over rising egg prices and possible collusion of big egg? karoline: we definitely do share the concerns of the americ

nfib optimism fell today for the second consecutive month. we know that some ceos are saying about where the consumer's collective head is right now. >> oh, no. absolutely. i mean, it could definitely go lower. i mean barely now 10%. that's, you know, just a bare touch of a, a correction. and given, you know, 20, 20% gains in each of the last two years, you know, this is not a lot down. and we're still, you know, quite we're still high. we have a lot of promise ahead of us. if he would rationalize this trade i mean talk about reciprocal tariffs, analyze each country, negotiate with them individually where they put a tariff on and say, listen, you know, you bring that down, then we'll do this. there's a lot of sense to that. but you know, just penalizing canada and mexico willy nilly. and particularly the canadians. you know, a lot of people are just shaking their heads about that does not instill confidence. confidence. listen, it's a source of consumer spending. consumer spending has been the strength of this economy over the last two years.

. >> nfib survey of.mall businesses. >> where they talk about uncertainty. >> rising since. >> the election in november, when they became. >> very certain. >> they'd become. >> increasingly less. >> certain about their. >> outlook for the economy. >> is this. >> a good time to invest? no. not really. >> is it a good time to. >> expand your business? maybe not so much. >> and we see it in consumer sentiment that consumers. >> are feeling. >> well, they don't know what's going on. and if they feel uncertain, then consumers won't spend as much. >> and consumption spending. >> has been what's driving the economy. so we're looking right now. >> at kind of the fear of tariffs. >> and the. uncertainty of everything. >> that's happening. >> in washington. >> weighing down. >> on economic activity. >> and the bottom line on that. >> is that. gdp now, the atlanta. >> fed's spot. >> forecast of what's going on in the economy is. >> looking for a. 2.3% contraction. >> in gdp for the first. >> quarter. >> the first ti

cpi on wednesday, nfib and jolts tomorrow, cpi wednesday, ppi on thursday and another consumer sentiment number on friday. >> all right. that's going to be kind of the dashboard i think for markets navigating all of this steve stay with us. my next guest is going to try to talk us off the ledge a little bit. kathy bostjancic is chief economist at nationwide mutual. kathy, it's interesting that we're already jumping ahead to these questions about a recession, when really we have to first address the slowdown. is it happening now? is it happening in the back half of the year? what do you think the data are telling us? >> yeah. hi, kelly. >> happy to join you. well, yeah, there's a lot to digest. >> i mean, if you just look. >> at the current. >> data, we. >> are not on the precipice of a recession like the employment data on friday. really put to rest some of those concerns, right? we had. >> a solid. >> employment gain and income gains were. >> were also very healthy. >> and that means. there's wherewithal income for consumers to keep spending. now that all said, you know, markets are for

the nfib put out a report this morning. small business optimism continues to be far higher than it ever was under the previous administration. there's a lot of reason to be optimistic. and again, the american people, ceos and people on wall street and on main street should bet on this president. he is a deal maker. he is a businessman, and he's doing what's right for our country. he wants to restore wealth to the united states of america. michael, good to see you. >> thank you. two questions, if i may. will the will the administration be providing any relief to states affected by the ontario power tariff? >> well, the president has made it very clear that canada would be very wise not to shut off electricity for the american people. and we hope that that does not happen. as for what would happen if that does take place, i'll leave it to the president to make those decisions. >> does president trump share the justice department's concern over rising egg prices and possible collusion of big egg? >> well, we definitely we defi

. >> you have the nfib it's a small business group. it's basically. >> it's pretty conservative. >> very conservative. >> and even their confidence numbers are tanking. and i want to add one more thing. there is something called the ism survey of manufacturing. and it basically takes the pulse every month of. >> manufacturers in. >> this country. and what you saw in the readout of that to a, to a company, every single one was saying, we're pulling back on investment because we don't understand how to navigate these tariffs. >> we're not making. >> investments that we were planning on making, because we don't know whether the cost of a good we're going to need is going to be 25% higher for no reason. >> can we just talk about the automakers for a second? yeah, some of the most important employers in this country think about the auto workers union, how powerful they are. they have had their hands tied. they've been turned in circles by the president dealing with tariffs this week. and let's say you're one of the big three automakers righ

and then on the small business front, one area that was euphoric after the president's election, the nfib reporting a slide in optimism last month with a bigger slide, especially in the outlook for a lot of small businesses. now that all is kind of added up to the weakness that we're seeing in the markets throughout the session. i did mention, though, we're off the session lows and we're beginning to see some headlines saying that ukraine could be amenable to a 30 day ceasefire. so that's coming after this nine hour meeting that us and ukrainian officials have held. and it could be one reason we're off the lows. in fact, the nasdaq is now positive. let's bring in malcolm etheridge. he's managing partner at capital area planning group and our own bob pisani. he's a cnbc senior markets correspondent. bob let me just go first to you. if you could kind of retrace the action here. >> yeah. well we are rallying here. >> i see some. >> of. >> the big names nvidia. >> amazon goldman. >> sachs moving up. >> so this is kind of a broad move off of the lows i think the problem. >> is and. steve liesm

strouse because you are a nfib representative at our company has been a member for over 40 years. you really help small businesses. can you discuss the individual health reimbursement plans? hsa's individual health savings plans? how can we do more as a congress? give us your background and what we can do to help our small business community access health for employers? ms. strouse: thank you for the question. the great thing that has come from the challenges for small employers have gone through since the aca was enacted is that they are resilient and innovative. as an independent agent, we sit down to work outside the box on solutions we can bring to the table that not only provide the preventive health side of things and also help them navigate their benefits, to make sure they feel like benefits for them. one of the things i have not had a chance to discuss today our direct primary care providers. right now you can basically pay a membership fee to have access to a direct primary care provider but you can't run those fees through the hsa account. if that was something that was

that's the reason why tomorrow, the nfib small business optimism survey will be important. data? jonathan: confidence was skyhigh. we want to see that translate into higher income and more investment. you keep hearing the same thing over and over again. wait and see treat even the chairman of the fed is saying we will wait and see, we will not cut interest rates. macro paralysis. i think it is a perfect quote. that's the moment we are in at the moment. lisa: paralysis is a decision and that is something you made the point of last week. if you have a lot of in action, it has consequences and that will show up in the data. there's a reason why it is difficult to look at backward-looking data and use it as a benchmark for what's to come and the reason why it is getting more choppy. annmarie: kevin said, pointing to the gains that are set to come. talking about we need the deregulation train and the tax cuts or the extension of tcg a to make sure they have the ground running and offset what we are seeing. jonathan: good data is trump data, bad data is biden data. are we clear o