let's bring in rick santelli who's always fired up. he's at the bond market. rick i'm not going to steal your thunder. talk about whatever you want, but maybe kind of go to morgan. and i's point that because of computers and algorithms and whatever, everything does move a lot quicker now than it used to. and by used to, i mean like five years ago, just things move faster. >> i agree. and that's why i think. today could be a bottom. >> i think that's how fast we move. i like. >> going on record. i think we're going. >> to see a whole lot. >> more green in stocks. and to be fair, you two sound like a couple of debbie downers today because in my estimation, no matter what i'm hearing or reading, i was looking at the report, i brought out the repor, and i didn't see any big surprises. it isn't whether it was a little weaker or not. it was about big surprises. this definitely fits in the jar of we can do it. it's okay. there isn't a bottom falling out of the labor market. and if you look at twos and tens on one chart, it really does say quite a bit. two year has lag

bring in rick santelli for more because i.ow normally you see the bond market move stock market moves kind of everything moves. it's a little bit of an odd time. >> yeah it is. but you know what the best way to look at this is. consider okay. look at the twos ten. spread the last seven sessions. it encapsulates the firm tenure the soft two year. and look at where it's gone from 15 to briefly trading 35 this morning. that's seven sessions. one of the reasons tens minus boons closed last year brian. the difference in yield at 220 basis points today it's closed at 146 basis points. so not only do you have stubborn long rates here, you have germany accentuating that fact around the globe. everything's fungible. and the two year is looking at growth because of the fed and pricing in cuts. so this is all wild. you know what else is wild. look at the vix. vix right now is just a whisker under 26. it's the most. it's been the highest it's been in 20 months. let's go talk to jason about exactly that jason what are you seeing with regar

let's get to rick santelli. hey rick.ndeed this. >> is the. >> first batch. >> of services number. >> this happens to be from s&p global. these are february. final reads. >> which means. we replace. >> the mid-month read 49.7 was mid-month. read on services. it jumps. >> in. >> the expansion. >> territory at 51.0. >> now it's. >> only the best since. >> january when 52.9. >> but what's notable. >> here is, is. that you turn that we. >> had a 49.7 for two weeks. >> well, that would. >> have been the. >> first sub 50 number. >> going. >> back to janet 23. so a very friendly number there sequentially. obviously a. >> good number. and if we look at the. composite from 50.4 mid-month to. >> 51.6, also the. >> best since. >> january when. >> it was at. >> 52.7. haven't had a. sub 50 number there also since january when it was under 50 at 46 and change, we. >> see that the. >> yield curve is. >> steepened because. >> of this. >> notion of uncertainty. has prompted more rate cuts. >> so short. >> maturity treasury yields have dro

thank you rick rick santelli. and we are going to get jobs at the end of this week. potential catalysts beyond today's numbers on manufacturing that that rick just reported. we're going to get the adp employment report. that's the private sector. read. and then friday is the big jobs report. there's an ecb decision coming this week where they are widely expected to cut rates. and they got some better inflation data that would lead them to that point. and then the beige book of course the fed pays attention to what the districts are saying around the economy. the president will address. congress said he's going to be not hold back on that so eagerly awaiting his speech. and then the tariffs are expected on canada and mexico tomorrow, unless there's some sort of a deal that president trump can work out, by the way, on jobs, when there's a lot more focus on jobs, because we are getting some signs that the job market is weakening further. what rick just reported inside the ism survey, the jobless claims number last week was very elevated, for instance. so we'll see. and

rick santelli sorry. squawk box.ng news. let's start out with the trade balance which we know is a deficit. this is the january number a new record a new record. we've never had a trade deficit as big as today's -131.4 billion, 134.4 billion. and keep this in mind pre covid. you know what the biggest trade deficit we had was. it was 68.3 billion. so hey how about pretty much doubling that 24, when it was a little bit over 2%. unit labor costs 2.2. that's definitely better than we were expecting. meaning lower where productivity was higher. unit labor costs come in at 2.2%. that follows 3% 2.2%. well, it would be the smallest also since the third quarter when it was half of 1%. now let's go to initial and continuing claims 221,000 on still an unrevised 242,000. so we're down 21,000. and it really does show you that there might have been some seasonalities that popped up that last week. 221,000. well, we had 220,000 on the second week of february. just to kind of put a face on it. we're kind of right in the middle ther

let's bring in rick santelli with the latest from chicago rick. >> you know let's start out with thehad a major reversal in rates in the us. consider we're at 3.99 now on a two year unchanged. you know what it's low yield was 389 and a ten year. right now we're at 426 up one on the day. excuse me up about. yeah about a half basis point one basis point. but the point is the low yield was 418. so whether it was data or the german stimulus, remember on the data side, other than adp, the ism's were strong. the pmis they were all great. we saw very solid, durable goods, very solid factory orders. and back to the german scenario. remember this is debt funded stimulus. hundreds of billions of dollars potentially. constitution has to be amended to be able to do this. it's such a counterculture issue for the germans. they're usually fiscally very stubborn. and another point that is big that i talked about during the credit crisis globally, all stimulus is fungible. fungible, meaning whatever happens on the other side of the world, if it's a positive stimulus, it will have effects around the g

rick. >> santelli here live at cme hq. >> look at two. year note yields today. >> hovering near unchanged. >> look at where. >> the high on the. >> far right is. >> compared to the left. >> now look at a ten. >> year ten year. yields are. up almost six. >> basis points. completely different. look to that chart. what's going on. you know yesterday we had a really hot prices paid. >> the long end completely. >> ignored it. today early in the. >> morning tariffs were the end of the world. the market paid attention. >> the curve steepened. but yet. >> equities have come back. >> interest rates have remained steepened. >> yield curve. >> the euro versus. >> the dollar. >> which by the. >> way. >> is. >> 57.6 of the dollar index is at a three month high. >> and i know they're. both on. >> the same chart. >> it might seem a. >> redundancy. >> but i. think it's. important to realize that. >> 12 5th. >> november. >> december 5th. >> is exactly where the dollar. >> index is committed to in. >> terms. >> of a low close. >> all of. >> that, of course

hey, rick santelli. >> yes, i'll tell you, these these numbers go right along with today's trade deficit final read on wholesale inventories, it was up 8/10 of a percent. up 8/10 of a percent. why is that so important. that's the biggest inventory wholesale increase since yes you guessed it august of 22. and if you looked at this morning's trade deficit, it had a record number of imports, up 10% to 401 billion versus exports, which were 267 billion. tariff front running is definitely having an effect here. and you can see it in all the numbers. now, the sales side of this equation. wow. and this also gives us an idea of why we're seeing these deficits skyrocket. the inventories are coming in. but the sales they were down 1.3%. that is almost three times more than expectations in the other direction, we're expecting up half of 1%. we're down 1.3 in the rear view mirror. though to be fair, there was a big revision in december from up 1% to 1.4. so you could see as we go more into 2025, that front running dynamic just becomes exaggerated. the real key here is how it all turns out. because u