mike santoli has those numbers as you can see right there good afternoon, mike >> hey, dom. an unusual quick and complete reversal from the one-day shakeout at least so far yesterday. three weeks ago we had a minipanic after the fed meeting, got a couple percent to the down side this is barely that. the big pressure point on the markets is what's been happening with yields, what's been happening psychologically in terms of the economy and everything else. here you can see a one-year chart of the 10-year treasury yield. it looks like it has rolled over from those highs a few months ago, but the big question as the overall trend changed, believe it or not not necessarily. it actually reversed higher on its 200-day average. it doesn't always work that well but at this point it doesn't seem as if there's anything that's really gone on here to change the overall setup of at least somewhat higher yields, even if we don't see the 1.7 plus that we saw a few weeks ago. take a look at the push/pull in sectors below the surface this week the s&p 500 is on pace fora quarter percent gain

we'll send it over to mike santoli for "overtime. >> welcome to "overtime," i'm mike santoli in for scottust getting started at the new york stage micron earnings are about to hit the tape we'll bring you the numbers and instant stock reaction as soon as those results cross president biden and ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy are about to kick off a live news conference in washington. we'll take you live to

. >> i'm mike santoli. wilfred and sara are off we have futures looking to gains from late last week. we pulled out positive, s&p 500 up 0.5%. in the broad markets continuing that coverage from the sell jot from the january hype. you see what we're pointing to, another half a percent gain. the dow looking a bit stronger up, 170 at this hour the nasdaq which has been the performer both before and after the correction is up, looking at about 18 points right now. taking a look at the ten-year treasury this obviously has been an area of tremendous focus lately in the last month or so although the move last week was very plod defendant. basically going sideways for four weeks, really it's amazing how many people are watching that 3% right now pulling back ever so slightly, 3.86 you wonder if that 3% mark is the watched pot that everybody is waiting for, seeing if it will boil or not the dollar bounced slightly last week up in the dollar index, about 0.5% it's basically fixed mostly down. the yen, you see the dol

senior markets commentator mike santoli. amazon is down almost 6%. >> a continued exit from the more expensive parts of the growth mega cap universe doesn't seem like it's too much in the way of a specific catalyst but more of the same. it's a new month and people thought that tax law selling was a contributor. the s&p just hovering, right where it was, just about ahead of the last fed meeting in the third week of september. there you have it. you sort of had the makings of what looks like a somewhat retested low, a slight undercut from the june lows it's trying to make progress again, the long-term downtrend is still in place. right now it's a lot of waiting ahead of the fed you mentioned the stronger jobs and manufacturing data did put the market back on its heels just a little bit. in terms of value versus growth, massive outperformance all year from value and even the deepest value stocks this is two etfs of pure value against pure growth. it's strictly a statistical low pe and stocks against the fastest growth stocks in

for more on the moves i'm joined by cnbc's markets commentator mike santoli mike, finally, not finally but we continue to get good news out of industrial sector in terms of what's going on with manufacturing here, but what do you think is going on with the stocks >> to some degree that improvement was priced n.industrials had a pretty decent comeback relative to the market in the last few months. third quarter earnings i think in general, the market is essentially saying these are steal numbers meaning that analysts were not rigorous about trying to raise forecasts that much before we got here so the beats were a little bit baked in, and then you just have the macro environment at the moment, too. i think the big question currently is not so much have we had a boom in stuff, in heavy goods like durable goods yes, we, have and it's ongoing the question is does it carry forward? treasury yields backing off today suggest the macro sent cement a little bit softer when it comes to all of this. within the consumer confidence data a little bit of a downshift in intentions for buying a new car

for "nightly santoli. >>> elsewhere, the president of the chicago fed sae the u.s. ec slowed, he does not sl the r risk of a recession. charles evans expects 2% growth this year and described the ec rebous primarily because of the strong consumer and labormarket. the fed held interest rates steady last week andat ind no more rate increases will be co this year. >>> with the fed on rest of the year and the mueller investigation behind us, what will the market turn its attention to at this point? joining o joe, chief investment strategist at blackstone. ce to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on the program tonight. >> even though we have those two kind of headline risks out of the way now, you still see some volatility for market ead? why? >> i think we will see it because we have this tug of war. on one side, we feds and the possibility that a trade deal with china and that's priced in. stocks have had one of their best starts to the year since i 1991 ahink that reflects the bullish sentiment on the fed. and the tug of war is a realizationco thaorate profits

mike santoli looking at the flight to quality and whether defense will continue to be one of the best performing sectors for investors in this environment. as we head to break check out some of today's top searched tickers. ten-year treasury right on top as it always is. wti crude is there below $99 a barrel tesla slightly higher. amazon has really climbed during the session and the s&p does continue to hit sessn ghiohis. e! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪ ♪ music ♪ ♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪ ♪ dream, dream that's the thing to do ♪ ♪ music ♪ when you see value in all directions, you add value in all directions. accenture. let there be change. (torstein vo) when you really p

but first, mike santoli, let's go to you.for the s&p, the broader market. but the fact that the dow did close at fresh session lows, what can we read through from that >> we've had a series of soft closes i don't think it's been dramatic it hasn't really carried over into the next day. i wouldn't read a tremendous amount, except what the overall story for the week was i can tell the story is being resilient, s&p up about half a percent. we're hanging around the highs and you look at the same exact action and say, we're stalled out. the market is a little bit fatigued it's had an opportunity to make a run at the old highs and has not been able to get there if you net those out, it's probably more positive than not, just because the average stock has done okay. the rotation within the market towards somewhat more of offensive cyclical areas is probably encouraging but it's definitely a wait and see. >> in terms of how we finished the week, is dow finishing with losses for the week, but the s&p, second straight week of gains. th

mike santoli, big move in pnc after hours. direction of those moves is one that you might expect. >> for sure. you have to recognize pnc didn't always get full credit in its market value for this minority stake in blackrock it was always considered to be a great asset. a windfall over time, but not something that was strategic, so therefore, as you say, a good source of raising cash it also reminds me not to say that pnc or any other banks are in a distressed position sun trust before sold its stake in coca-cola, something which it had held for 90 plus years so in some times it might make sense that they might redeem this >> i want to add one point, you mentioned potential regulation here i was told that part of the impetus for this deal -- number one was on the m&a and to raise capital so they can -- i'm also told that they don't have a is works as far of your potential deal for pnc, they had restraints from owning this much of black rock and these constraints disappear as a result of this sale another benefit there from pnc

space he's going to join us with his playbook let's get straight to the market dashboard with mike santoli. >> hopscotching around the closing low in the s&p 500, 3666, the intraday was 3636. it's being somewhat oversold on a short-term basis but these radical moves going on in currencies, in yields. not really allowing for a lot of traction at least not yet it's getting stretched pretty thin it's a little over three months ago, the average stock has made a new low, below the mid-june lows you also have important stocks like microsoft and alphabet as well as overall semis. i wouldn't be surprised if it had to plum a little bit lower before you get the snapback rally that everybody believes we are due soon take a look at a sign of building capital market stress spread versus treasuries this goes back four years. obviously you have the covid spike in spreads and the complete obliteration of anything risky here you see it kind of climbing above those levels it should be relatively close to where we were earlier in the summer it's a little bit below, actually, a july high. the problem is, trea

mike santoli's back with us.s a bit sloppy we're up off the lows and the indexes, but you have an 80% downside volume day in the new york stock exchange. you have the russell 2,000 struggling trading beat for beat with the financials for the most part down another 2%, really not that far off of where it was, you know, back before the pan pandemic so i think it's still a delicate situation. we go into the fed trying to stay somewhat neutral in the middle of the range right here i do think it's worth remembering we get the adp jobs report tomorrow. never really a market mover, but it's a reminder that it is a jobs week. so we're going to get loaded with a lot of here's where the economy stands right now, and then tomorrow, obviously it's going to be hashing through the message from the fed where, you know, you have had the market in regional banks essentially, you know, proactively throwing a tantrum, suggesting that maybe the pain threshold isn't much hire than this right now. >> i would give you one more reminder

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. investor day is just around the corner. and dan ives as we count down to salesforce in overtime as well mike santolii said the 10-year is at 4% and the stock market is kind of hanging in >> certainly apprehensive. you can't escape the shadow of what rates are doing last time we got to 4% in november, the s&p had been rallying, and it chopped sideways it wasn't as if it was an immediate break. it's not some trigger level but part of this ongoing low-intensity test we're having in the stock market of these support levels, the moving averages, trend lines all coming together but i still pull out a message that's not all that discouraging because it's still the rate-sensitive defensive sectors leading to the downside, underperforming today. semis are up this week and industrials still mahanging in there. >> the nasdaq is obviously the biggest loser today. by hanging in there, i'm looking at the dow, which doesn't tell you much the s&p 500 is at 3,950, and that's a more critical area of --

toflt day we have mike santoli and chris farone here as well.ader market a strong start to the week here, mike santoli it looked dicey earlier. amazon went red. nvidia lost half of the gains. but things are starting to firm up here into the close the dow is up 370. all sectors are green including technology what were the last two weeks and what is today? >> i think today is part of the last two weeks this on going process, this adjustment period of kind of letting the stuff that was most overheated cool off. and then settle out in terms of what the market is positioned for in terms of broader economic recovery that push-pull is the content. i think the big question over the big cap undechls is, you know, is there enough of a payback at this point? there does seem to be kind of pretty solid two-way action. by that i mean, you know, people are buying dips. there is very low conviction at these levels i don't think that anyone is necessarily too alarmed what the is going on inside which is, you know, relatively help nly pullback activity within the

what next, santoli, you there. he's my movie guy.do you remember that there was one company. there was one company at that time >> amazon. >> we're headed there. it's going to be amazon. nothing else. >> we finished talking about walmart, and how there's not a weak point in their earnings, and a couple percent of gdp. >> can i still buy a book at amazon >> you can >> yes, you can. >> you don't have to yet, though, but you can. >> think about amazon, think about that think about, i mean, there's a picture of him here at the nasdaq, becky, remember that picture of him, and you know what he looks like now. >> ringing the bell. >> yeah, exactly ringing the bell he looks like robocop. >> terminator, the guy we used to put on with the funny laugh now he looks like adonis classic the way the world works. >> you were talking about 30 years ago, buffet should have bought that company. that company didn't exist 30 years ago. i'm one of the early subscribers to amazon and i think my account goes back to 1999, 21 years ago. >> amazing, young guy

mike santoli jim cramer is off tonight.the debt ceiling investors try to make sense of the moves on wall street and in washington, tonight, we'll dig into the week that was and what's ahead for the market coming up. debt ceiling deadline, the white house an

. >> exactly >> mike santoli. big week ahead for the u.s as mike mentioned, tomorrow we get november's cpi, consumer price index, the fed decision on wednesday, and november retail sales on thursday. joining us now, samir, it looks like we're getting a tick up in the markets. is this positioning ahead of the inflation report tomorrow? >> yeah. it is a reason you've seen rates falling. you've seen credit trends falling, the dollar falling, oil falling, which you pointed out all those are good for markets from the standpoint of they take the pressure out of the system with respect to financial conditions easing, and oil, you know, kind of being that double whammy of higher inflation and crimping the consumer. that's been a nice thing going into the holiday season. at least right now things are looking pretty rosy. the tricky part is probably the next 5% is driven where cpi comes in unfortunately after that, even if you get up to to that 4,100, 4,200 level, things get more difficult because as inflation comes down to

along with mike santoli. let's look at how we finished the day.a few attempts to go positive, though down lower, pretty much flat, capping off a very strong week for the markets. there is the s&p 500, closing up about six points for the week, that's good for a gain of about 1.6. the nasdaq the star for the week, as usual also closing today higher. the russell 2000 index also had a pretty decent week down about a third of 1% good for a second week in a row of gains after a 3% higher week 69. >> yeah, real estate utilities were the best performers the dow utilities also had another sector energy was the worst performer, the low yields driving the higher utilities, defense plays and different plays. we have our closer mike novogratz joining us coming up where he sees opportunities outside of clippo. joining us to talk about the market day, michelle mckinnon, and still with you nancy tengler. first let's start with mike santoli. mike >> pretty subdued day. treasury yields down again it's happened every day since the coyne vire began the marble holds t

>> sure. >> mike santoli, close the discussion off. what does mr.arket want to see out of the election? >> aside from getting past it, i'm persuaded by the idea that the market probabilistic says the most likely set of outconditions is red waive or harris win with his some gridlock, which is a statue quo type of outcome, in which case the market can make its peace with that policy set. in the near term, you've seen an aggressive overplaying of the aggressive trump tried, because that outcome would have a much more extreme or dramatic effect directly on some quantifiable trade. if i told you harris is going to lose, it's not as clean a trade as dyt or coal or, you know, something like that where you feel like you have a clear path. that being said, i think beyond a sort of final settlement of the election, you basically want nothing super extreme. i don't think what the market wants is genuinely mass deportations plus tariffs on day one. that would be more disruptive than is priced in right now. >> mike santoli and ashish sha, thank you. >>> rick, sh

mike santoli looking at the big picture. mike >> yeah, sara, dial it back about six excesses this is the sixth session of this trade-related freakout the market's been in i wanted to highlight one as peblth of it, which you guys have talked about, which is the intraday rally attempts that we've had just about every day you see back even last monday these are the end of days. you've tended to have a low early in the day it didn't look like we were going to stick to that today maybe it's only a weak version of it. but you see today we hit this low just a little while ago. interpretation here is most of the down side damage has happened in the overnight session. the stock futures get sold very hard into the u.s. open. and you've had this gap effect and then on a net basis over the course of a day you do get a bit of a dip coming into the market. does that meanit's mostly global investors and retail on the sell side? unclear if that's the case and who knows? maybe the buyers are going to get fatigued p you have to get up the nex

see you in a few hours that's mike santoli at the stock exchange grade my trade is up next. tweet us. we'll do that on the other side of this break. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones another busy day? let's of course, you'ref it. a cio in 2023. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business, with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want... your team, ours or a mix of both... with the nation's largest ip converged network, from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities™. the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ >>> it's time for grade my trade. amy, you are up first, from wayne, i added slb, formerly known as schlumberger, added it at 34 last year. should i continue

mike santoli has the details. >> reporter: wall street's month lo h pull back undercut the big expected growth stocks that have led the market higher in the past year. this has raised theho voices have been heralding the long awaited shift into less flashy butheaper value stocks but such a pivoting market m leadership ie tougher by the serious cyclical and long-term issues weighing on many less expensive sectors. a handoff is something that typically only occurs after a more pronounced phase of broad market volatility. they make their ways because they're out of favor or seem to be facin tough fundamental challenges. this means a disciplined value investor right now is left to hunt around beaten value stocks or mall reilers, all viewed of long-term victims of changing consumer behavior. the weakness in these groups as well as the hard hit housing stocks seem to reflect worry that it has entered a later stage. it could take a reacceleration of ernomic growth o a pause in the rate hiking c paign to spark a comeback. and in such an environment, who's to say that popular growth stocks such

santoli before we get into earnings salesforce, crowdstrike, okta, we are all over the cloud and a lotith salesforce up a lot since the last earnings report and it's only half way back from its peak to trough decline i think you have a lot of stocks in tech in that zone salesforce has rarely been this inexpensive or relative to free cash flow in its history that doesn't mean that's how it's going to trade and the eye of the beholder stock and i think it's worth mentioning it had pretty sloppy earnings responses today with advanced autoparts and hpe and hpq and the market is rag ed and it seems to reflect relatively low expectations and the kind of market where everyone is selling something to buy something, it seems, safer and more predictable and that's yet market breadth has not cooperated and if i can see an upside to today's actions and we got a jolts report that scared the market briefly because it seemed like it was too strong and too many job openings and you have fed speakers saying don't worry about that we still have a pause on the table and it seems silly and fickle on an in

well, the transports have been outperforming them as mike santoli noted earlier.ep in the red today is palantir. revenue beat estimates but earnings were slightly below wall street forecasts. guidance was also weak the cfo blaming that on lumpiness of government work frank holland here with more frank, what's the reason the stock is hit so hard, down 14, 15%? >> well, sara, it's really not that complicated it's that soft guidance. that lumpiness comment was confirming the fears of many investors according to analysts. there's a lot of concerns about the inconsistency of government work and the fact that it's kinda sometimes hard to forecast it can always be hard to forecast a lot of people may have forgotten about this, but people on wall street haven't remember that $10 billion jedi contract amazon battled over and it was broken into smaller pieces that's something that hangs over this stock the idea that government work can change or shift whether it's due to an election or something else that happens in d.c you have to remember that palantir gets 80% of its rev

over to mike santoli what if it is in the markets, as we know it's about 2% from the 30,000 market. take a look at this ten-year chart, it's a long chart, which means all person -- it's not just linear, so it shows different gains in a more acreal way. it did take a sideways move. really went nowhere for a few months, but i'm not sure that had anything to do with the big round number effect. back when it first hit 10,000 in '99, it doesn't top for another 10%, clearly no necessary fundamental or technical significance to these levels, though i do think it's important to note that one could argue that the dow is kind of at the upper end of this long ten-year trend. i'm not going to be an expert at drawing a trendline, but it looks something like that. you kind of surged above it, so this tells you it's been a strong, decade-long trend, but in the long term the index has gotten stretched guys >> you need to put that chart up next to the fed's balance sheet. >> it's not going to tell you very much, sara. for much of this period. the balance sheet was flat and declining. >>. >> more tha

. >>> and holly name kroft is it a game changer mike santoli is here it's a wild reaction. >> actually, sara. it does tole you how tight will you wound this market was. we were spring-loaded for a bit of relief. this time one of the downside surprise which fit into the theme that maybe the soft landing is not completely a remote possibility too far to make that leap right now, but it takes the s&p back to that level there from late september. that was right before the september fed meeting, not the november, but the september one, that was the previous 75 basis-point rate hike, so sort of pulling the market out of the moment in the fall, there seemed no daylight. is the bigger one is probably like 41. we got this to the highs of the day, we're back to them right now. it's a pop and glide side waist. look at market-based expectations it's actually relatively tame. it has curved lower. that looks like a decent top best guess, inflation protection in the market, but it shows you that the market believes the fed will get there either the hard or easy way. you see this, before the pandemic,

. >> a good day to hear from mike santoli.very day really is, but especially today given this second inflation print. a lot of fed speak. the market is acting interesting. we'll talk to him next. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy. ever worry your whole life is spent on golf? nah. sinking putts? the only thing sinking is my savings... there's the kid's braces and my parents to care for. i'm gonna caddy forever. with empower, i get all my financial questions answered, so i don't have to worry. empower. what's next. the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now i

i'm catching on here mike santoli, thank you. mark, your thoughts on the s&p and market valuation right now >> there's no doubt that we're in a pretty strong bull market so we're seeing a lot of support right now in the 3025 range. so anything pullbacks. and i do think that consolidation is possible, because we're short-term overbought right now so it would make sense if we continue to see some issues with trade, markets could pull back like, pullbacks are buying opportunities. anything around that 3025 range, you want to be getting in. >> meantime, morgan stanley out with a note on their outlook for 2020, predicting u.s. equities and corporate bonds will underperform their global peers and forecasting a weakening dollar for more, let's bring in adam parker, founder and ceo at triverate capital management thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> where do you stand on the outlook of the moment? global growth, you feel, has kind of bottomed now >> i don't think you can call a market that easily you need corporate excess,

over to mike santoli for his final dash board of the day.ow and we looked at short term indicator how investors feel and act process. this is longer term flow of actual funds from goldman sachs. look first of all, this is monies flowing in and out of equities relative to bonds and cash so when in line was going up, right after the financial crisis and the bull market started this is money rushing into equities from bonds and from cash then you see the trend since then, it's been steadily lower the percentages are as a percentage of the assets under management in these different categories so obviously you saw an uptick in 2013 hitting all-time highs but in general it's been a steady bleed of assets out of equities on a net basis. at least out of equity funds but look where that leaves investor portfolios in aggregate in terms of asset allocation to the differentiate categories on top is equities it's still healthily weighted .market itself going up and it seems investors are steadily skimming but allowing the market to appreciate and the res

mark santoli is kicking off its market dashboard with a look at a tech surge let's kick it off with frank at the nasdaq market site, though hey, frank >> hey, morgan the biggest name in tech makes sense. microsoft, apple, and alphabet are a combined 25% weight of the nasdaq composite today back on august 27th, 2018, when it stood at 8000, the top three were apple, amazon, and microsoft at 23% of the index. since then, apple has gained 33%, microsoft improved 46%. alphabet class "a" shares getting just under -- excuse me, class "c" under 11%, class "a" under 10%. amazon fell, lost about a quarter of its value since 2000 and lost three quarter of its weight, while facebook and comcast increased slightly and adobe replaced nvidia in the top ten of the weighted stocks >> thank you, frank. let's send it over to mike with his first dashboard of the day mike >> looking at the best decade, david, in the form of the nasdaq 100 and how investors have been willing to pay up for these very large growth stocks that are contained in the 100 this isn't the composite it's the 100 it's where essentially a

we'll continue with neal, mike santoli still with us. think they'll go 100 basis points >> anything is possible. maybe there will be a "wall street journal" article coming out the weekend before >> the last time fed chairman powell said it's reasonable to expect 50 or 75 at the next meeting although the time before that he said we're only looking at 50. so i guess they're recalibrating as they get the inflation data >> to me the issue is they sort of find these data points and it's like ex-post justification for stuff they already decided they wanted to do. so powell looks at eci and that's why we're starting the tapering clock sooner and then it's a five to ten year inflation expectations i don't think they have a coherent strategy. i do think -- >> that's not fair they've told us that it's all about inflation right now. >> well, they haven't told us exactly how expeditiously they want to move up to neutral the most important part for investors is the fed basically has two options. two doors they can walk through, behind door number one

cnbc mike santoli theer bre tho santoli to break down the market major averages lower today for the third time in four sessions. earlier this hour, we spoke to senate majority leader mitch mcconnell about why he believes liability protection is going to be a critical component in the next coronavirus stimulus package for republicans. >> there's no chance of the country getting back to normal without it this is not just liability protection for businesses, although, they are included along with everyone else dealing with this brand new disease. unless you're grossly negligent or engage in intentional misbehavior, you'll be covered and it will be in a bill that passes the senate. >> just looking at the market here, mike santoli, stocks are headed south again we're now at session lows, down 194 on the dow you think there is some concern about the stimulus getting passed, get something sort of agreement with mcconnell drawing a red line around this liability protection which democrats are vehemently against >> yeah. combined with other republican senators not being enthusiastic about the lead

. >> degas, i saw you last night with mike santoli. josh, i want to come back to you. you sold netflix did you also see some of this coming >> see some of what? >> disney subscribers, its subscriber growth outstripping netflix when it comes to subscribers? >> i think ultimately most people would have expected that disney had the potential to get bigger but i -- i don't think that they compete with each other as much as maybe a lot of people think i think what they have done for each other is that they have validated direct-to-consumer streaming services as like just the new technology i think netflix is the service that probably -- so put disney aside for a second i do like netflix long term, but i also think that the proof will be whether or not they can really transition to this ad-supported service the stock went up 37% over the last three months, so the buy the dip works. so i'm fully out of it now i may get back into it at a certain point. i think that they had priced this stock for catastrophe and it's not a catastrophe at netflix, it's just a challenging period

mike santoli, let's start with you.ff the lows of the session. >> got a little bit of a test, right? the headlines about maybe we're not going to get this phase one trade deal by the end of the year and the market leaning into that, as everybody has been observing, looked a little bit stressed, sentiment was complacent the top started to spin a little slowly after a few days, just kind of sitting there. it was knocked over. didn't change much by the end of the day. market kind of held in there bought this little dip, at least on the initial move. it doesn't change the overall picture. although a slightly more defensive tone creeping in parts of the market. >> if we didn't get a phase one deal this side of christmas, do you think that would damage the market >> no, i don't think it would damage the market too much after so many days of record high after record high after record high, to be honest, i was nervous about that i don't mind a little bit of a pullback here. the market is still pricing in a trade truce and any d

good to see you both. >> thank you. >> sarah,ou as heard mike santoli talking about that. do you see the market becoming more defensi t? t where you would be putting money to work right now, do you think? >> as you look at multiples on consumer staples and the stocks th have recovered quite nicely it wasn't just about the december quarter and the defense stocks were having a hardrime all yast year. so i think that you're starting to see people position themselves more defensively and people are looking at places where there's more u.s. exposure. >> mark, one of the places that they are getting defensive is by moving into the bond market. how much more of thisove do you see, and if you're a longer term investor, would you go out as far, or would you be shorter on the yield curve. so i've been saying for quite a while that yields were going down. the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the fed and the word is an about a face a 180-degree term after the meeting and the fed's next move will be because of the chinese, but i call it the game of thrones between the two countries. th

mike santoli has more on the market's recent decline and what might come next. >> the stock market'saye malaan so far be viewed as a normal pull back after a very ourongmonth rally. a routine reset in an ongoing bull market and the ongoing fragility of the cycle carried the rif that the downturn might deepen into a more serious correcon. >> the s&p 500 index was down 5% from a record high at its worst this mon and it was coming as the trade frictions grew more intense. it has more and this data weakness is pretty typical. even after this drop the market remains up more than 12% and that's ath mor respectable gain after a 6% decline in 2018 and yet the tariff hikes and disruptions are at a delicate point as the tax cut had a 3% growth rate last year and the european indicators have remained sluggiss and t complicated the consensus projection of a rebound in high single-digit percentage growth in the second half of 2019. the second half of this year begins in just over a mon after all. the treasury bond market reflects this tension and the ten-year yield sinking to an 18-month low this

tech was misplaced from the get go and one would have such a cause and effect on each other mike santoli has sort of scoffed that you have to have such a distinct relationship, higher rates, bad for tech. lower rates, good for tech maybe that was wrong in and of itself and here we are. rates are up, tech has been dominating and no reason it wouldn't continue doing that even if rates stay where they are. >> the duration of the assets and that goes for stocks and bonds. they should be under pressure. now what's happening is we have long duration assets on a new outlook that is ai-related, growth related, shift in the economy related, and that is sort of justifying the expansion in multiples if we stay in a period where the fed does not come off the hiking gas there has to be pressure on valuations general speaking because of the money that's flowed in there. it doesn't make sense for forward returns, if you look at p/es >> brynn >> i put the 61% that this is a bull market. the further away from those lows, the longer it takes to say, oh, yeah, we're going to retest the lows. you can have t

i'm mike santoli you just heard the bell.e a second straight down week. as fed officials talk big and hit a wall is this just a pause for the start of the year. let's ask head of u.s. equity strategy at rbc capital markets as the folks from sap kind of

master santoli is absolutely correct.g that the fed could start doing right now is commenting on individual data releases. please do not -- please, restrain yourselves, please don't do that, and ask dudley, if he doesn't mind, to stop pending op eds and let's not have the fed be reacting to individual economic reports. that's a tactical mistake and t. >> they have stock buybacks by a transitory theme richard clarida said in a speech today said this is transitory we were expecting it and it could happen for a few months but they don't see it lasting the nasdaq right now w the sharp declines is 8.4% off its recent highs, nearing the 10% correction level tom lee from fund stratd joins the conversation here on cnbc. you have been bullish. how do you see the selloff today? do you see opportunities to buy. >> yeah, i think today's -- has the feel of a panic day, right, because the vix is spiking so that's forcing derisking. and today is tax day i did talk to a few desks on the private banks. they have been saying some of their

but let's get straight to the big story we're watching today mike santoli tracking market action ylan has the latest. leslie has a look inside palan-tiers. and the unusual structure. starting with the broader market, what we're seeing. are we broken records talking about the tech divergence yet again. >> broken record talking about breaking records, we kind of are but thais the way it happens these things come in streaks and burnells actually when you get to a record high on a given day the most likely scenario under the circumstances one the next day because the market goes up over time that being said, you did say the broad market, this is a very broad market dow jones toemgts stock market, wilshire 5,000 index i wanted to point out, it is at a new high yes, by far the scene stealing action is in the huge nasdaq stocks, the big tech stocks, salesforce, new york stock exchange, not nasdaq nonetheless, it's pulling everything else with it. most stocks, even if they are not up today, are going more or less in the right direction wit. this is obviously a pretty steep angle for the entir

michael santoli has a plan >> i'm okay with that. yeah >> always with a plan. i'm in the market looking for a discount all right. that sounded like a song l.a. officials announcing the creation of an urban air mobility partnership as a way to get folks used to seeing drones in the sky it comes after the faa loosened restrictions on flying drones in high population areas and at night. it means home deliveries from the sky, things like food, drugs, packages, toilet paper no longer just a far off fantasy. some big players ready to cash in like amazon, walmart, u.p.s contessa brewer, i believe you're up there in the country here's my problem with the drones by the way, a lot of this is done at my alma mater virginia tech go hokies they're loud dogs bark. this is not a perfect solution it's a leaf blower in the sky. >> i mean, your dog barks at a drone? what does your dog do about the amazon delivery guy coming to your door? it seems to me like a drone -- >> loves it because he brings treat. >> a drone that takes off is a lot -- well, all right you have a very speci

mike santoli has a look at the longer-term market trends. and td ameritrade's j.j. kinahan tells us where investors are putting their money to work. >> we're waiting an announcement on a deal between house republicans and democrats to move the usm krrkusmca forward. some say that a deal is very close. sources say to the white house suggest it's already been reached in principle, with the white house telling allies of potential vote timing. they say if the final usmca text is depleted by december 15th, the house could vote on december 18th, with the house voting the day before on impeachment, according to two sources informed by the white house. of course, house speaker nancy pelosi will have the final say on scheduling. president trump just moments ago making some comments about how talks on usmca are going well, saying that specifically he has heard that labor unions are happy and that, of course, is one of the key constituencies here in the united states, that the white house and democrats needed to get onboard. wilf, contessa >> so kayla, are we suggesting that e

and with that, i'll turn it over to mike santoli in "overtime." >> thank you, jon.o "overtime." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard that we're just getting started. in moments we'll get earnings from nike. we'll get that plus instant reaction >>> plus breaking news from the banks. they're expecting to announce their capital allocation plans after breezing through last week's stress tests. >>> but we start with our talk of the tape. a bear bounce or a bottom? stocks taking a breather today after last week'

"the market dashboard" with mark santoli. the swings are ginormous >> and more remarkable is you have tremendous declines in some of the biggest market caps settle apple aside, yet the overall tape has had some followthrough buying the hallmark of this month has been the market's ability to rally on bad news. remember, the low intraday was on a bad cpi number october 13th we got through a lot else in terms of poor earnings, clearly housing is cratering and still managing to get up there around this 3,900 level on the s&p 500. it's fairly impressive 11% to 12% climb off that intraday row, october living up to its reputation for upside reversals after a dramatic bottom i'll point out broke this downtrend above the 50-day average. a technical and seasonal basis, there's some reason to think it's in a better position. just for benchmarking's sake, we were about right here when jay powell gave the jackson hole speech that spooked the market he didn't like that the markets were assuming a friendlier fed the vix was under 22 credit

that's micke santoli our senior markets commentator.rades next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. >>> got a big closing bell at 3:00 eastern time. man right there, rick reed err of blackrock will join us. his look ahead to 2024 and when the first cuts can could. the whole thing and also dan greenhouse reporting nicole webb and eric jackson, as well. i hope you'll join me then. let's do final trades. steve weiss, start us off. >> i'm staying in character and i'll stay with the one-year treasurys just over 5% yield. you can sit and wait it out. i have enough aid in my portfolio already. >> i thought you would have something dracula-related. you would stay in character. are you recommending garlic? >> i'm a big supporter of the u.s. government. i'm staying in character. >> that was pretty funny, by the way. cvs. usually these are positiv

see you tomorrow now to "overtime" with mike santoli. >>> welcome to "overtime." mike santoli in for scott wapner we're just getting started we'll have breaking results from disney, earnings expected to cross at any second. we'll bring you the numbers as soon as they hit we begin with our talk of the tape cooling inflation sparking a red-hot rally. all three major averages firmly in the green as consumer price increases pulled back from a four decade high today's cpi print the fed is engineering a soft landing and

mike santoli talking about the market being 16 or something is that neutral? is that under value?in the eye of the beholder at this point. >> absolutely. all depends what the e will be if the macro is slowing, do you think the companies can deliver. so far earnings held up. went from 21.4 forward estimates on the s&p 500 in january to about 17 can we go to 16, can we go to 15 long term average is 15. certainly we can overshoot on the internet stocks there are some great companies now that are down so much josh, did we miss something? i mean seriously, expedia down 29%. they beat in the quarter their bookings numbers rose 10% versus 2019 levels and up 20 times, 20 points since january the business is absolutely getting better, visibility is strong they have bloated costs in the company and so to me, it goes down every day i think there's value there thts a market that wants dividends and the at&ts of the world i like the long term fundamentals >> josh. >> i'm sorry set aside candy crush for a minute. >> i did the macro is slowing delivery. this is the point. if there is a macro slo

mike santoli is here and today we've got barbara duran with us as well.last day of april but the dow, s&p and nasdaq on track for big monthly gains. the nasdaq higher for the sixth straight month, its longest monthly winning streak in more than three years and the monthly gains for the s&p, 5% for the week, flat for the session, down 0.8%. what's really driving that little bit of a pullback today >> i don't know if there's a specific driver except for the overall dynamic where investors are kind of just slughrugging w they see great economic numbers coming through we're up 11%, 11.5% on the s&p year to date over 5% of that happened in just the first two weeks of april that's the way the market runs, it kind of gets the returns in these chunks and then it settles out. so a lot of people thought, and maybe there still is, the makings for something more of a pronounced pullback because of where sentiment and positioning were and how far we're up in a year plus. you might be able to consider it a victory that we've essentially just gone sideways a couple of w

mike santoli, thank you. >>> to the clear short-term driver for the market, a stimulus deal. ylan moi has been tracking all the twists and turns what's the latest? >> sara, house speaker nancy pelosi and senator majority leader mitch mcconnell are back at the bargaining table. the two of them spoke over the phone earlier this afternoon about both a government funding bill as well as another coronavirus relief deal. now those things are being negotiated separately. but they are expected to be bundled together for a final vote pelosi's office said the two sides have a shared commitment to getting the two pieces of legislation done as quickly as possible mcconnell's office did not kmend comment but earlier today on the senate floor he did say that a compromise is within reach now, it has been a long time since the leaders of these two chambers spoke earlier this week pelosi sent mcconnell a private letter with a new proposal for a covid relief deal. however since then they have switched course and gotten behind the $908 billion framework from a bipartisan group of lawmakers mcco

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.here on meta's big comeback day. stacy rascon stocks are near session highs, all 11 sectors are in the green. the nasdaq is really coming back, up 3.3% and the difference, mike, today, we've seen some other rally attempts this week like yesterday and that did not hold. this one appears to hold its earnings because you're seeing meta and paypal at the top of the market, i do wonder if that negative gdp number is working its way in, in some way, to the idea that maybe inflation is peaking, maybe the fed can't be as aggressive as it originally expected. what do you think? is that changing expectations? >> i don't know. it's not evident if you look at the bond market where it would be very sensitive to that. one thing i would be very accepting of is the idea that the negative real gdp printout at the headline level did nothing to cause the market to break down below the recent lows, which have been scraping right along the bottom of this trading range. so you mentioned the failed rally yes

scott wapner, mike santoli, and steve liesman with us. that bearish call from apple when asked about hedge fund manager stanley druckenmiller's assessment that the risk/reward in the market is, quote, maybe as bad as i've seen it in my career, here's what he said. >> it's definitely as of yesterday, now the market is down from yesterday, i would say that, you know, '99 was more overvalued than 2000 but, yeah, i would say it's one of the most overvalued markets, maybe second most overvalued i seechb the market is pretty full but there's a lot of liquidity there. it's too hard to say the market can't go up or something like that, but it's not a very good risk/reward market >> let's bring in scott wapner on the news line who did that interview earlier and mike santoli as well. scott, thanks for joining us one of the most overvalued markets i've ever seen, he said. the tone of the interview not desperate, not like the bill akman interview of march >> no, wilf, nor is david tepper's positioning really reflective of, you know, perhaps a dire sc