alix: in the tpi readout it said it could by private-sector securities. it could consider. is that a good idea or bad idea? peter: i don't know. i would have generalized. central banks, the u.s. central banks intervened in the bond market. the government bond markets in europe. in private bond markets as well. i think central banks are used sometimes, under exceptional circumstances, to intervene. this really should be exceptional. here we talk about problems in certain jurisdictions, in certain countries. that makes it difficult, and there are a number of criteria. i think the ecb is going to come with a general signal that they could also intervene in private on markets, but i don't think that is useful. it does not hurt much, but it is not necessary. alix: it is like a huge net, there are still a lot of holes. peter, thank you very much. always appreciate your commentary. peter praet, thank you very much. mario draghi's government is over. dealing with banks during the italian debt crisis. marina broglie will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: mario draghi off

maire said the governing counselor said the decision on the tpi is showing unity and the commitment to the euro >>> italy is recovering from last couple days it is holding a snap election in september after mario draghi stepped down he stepped down after allies refused to participate in the confidence vote in the parliament this week it will be a major couple of months for italy let's bring a timeline of what we can expect. september 25th is now the general election this is the first time italy holds a general election in autumn in history. they are held in spring usually. the chamber will meet for the first time to put together the budget law the all-important budget in the legal system and there will be a new electoral law where one-third of the parliamentary seats have been taken out 600 are up for grabs all eyes on the polls. let's see how they have been evolving in the last couple weeks. we still have brothers of italy at the top at 23% of the total share of the vote. brothers of it aaly is the only that hasn't participated in the government they are anti-immigration and euro skep

alix: so it raises the question for me what's changed and i wonder, may be the tpi tool that the ecbas is better than thought. they can handle the spread widening. maybe they can handle the energy crisis in the winter. is there anything to that in terms of why they went so hawkish today. >> i think it's not very complicated. i think inflation fears are not good. the economy has been more resilient on this with some market analysts were thinking, myself also, the unemployment rate is quite low there some wage pressure. i think we should look at the simple analysis that inflation is too strong for the ecb to act. my concern is that the guidance on rate as been quite strong. and the intention you see it's not the intention to further dampen demand in a situation with the project with already to negative figures. this i think is a bridge too far. guy: peter, have inflation expectations and the euro zone become -- now. >> i think they are quite well behaved. and surprisingly given the inflation shock that we had so they are on the upside for us and the ecb basically wants to give a strong

dani: at the same time, we have the tpi protection tool. safety net is supposed to be there for italian bonds. does this just show us it is a market that is very ready and willing to test that? >> before yesterday's meeting, markets were actually relatively calm when it came to italy. potentially now, with this very surprisingly strong guidance around rates that unsettled markets somewhat. dani: the ecb does have a different market environment, as does the u.k., where labor is really the question. it is a very difficult labor market. how does andrew bailey's task different when it comes to that? what is the fine needle that he needs to thread? given how extremely challenging this labor market is. >> one of the contrast on the market versus the u.k., i think the key difference is that we saw the pickup in wage growth in the u.k. coming through much earlier than we did in europe. the part of the story is the fact that participation rates were essentially available in the u.k., and it has shrunk more than in the euro zone. it still hasn't recov

the deflationary funk, since 2011. a 2.3% number in terms of tpisignal we have made the shift to inflation. oil prices are rising as our metal prices. anchor: positive prices coming early. tom: the higher prices, good news for china's factories. offsetting some of the higher wages. wee of the higher costs talked about as well. factories putting up their the environment of stronger demand. it means of course of their earnings will go up which means they can pay down some of that corporate debt. what it means in terms of broader chinese inflation, they expect chinese inflation to hit around 6% in the third quarter of 317. broader picture of the inflation of the global economy at a time when donald fiscals expected to up and infrastructure spending. we could see a broad pickup in inflation. good news for the likes of the ecb and mario draghi. good news for the boj. not so good for the consumer. in terms of where the pb oc stands, analysts could expect them to tighten at a moderate rate. numbers expected in a little under one hour in beijing. yvonne: j

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with regards to the tpi instrument, the ecb has bought a lot of credibility with that.it means performing the next government, our expectation is forming this government wouldn't be as easy as many expected once the election result was announced. it's likely we are in for a few more weeks of volatility there. but i think the key thing investors are focusing on is the budget, and the fiscal position. whatever happens domestically with the political tractor up -- backdrop, our sense is you will not see much deviation from the budget that has been laid out by the previous prime minister, mr. draghi, so i think markets can take assurance that as long as we don't see deviation, we don't see big moves in the btp market. francine: dean turner, chief eurozone and u.k. economist at ubs joining us this morning. eu leaders gather in brussels, on the agenda, sanctions on iran and energy. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: we'll talk about energy crisis in europe, but yen breaking through 150 per dollar for the first time since 1990. it is a very important psychological level, we did he

maybe we can get through it therefore they can raise rates now and the instruments they have like the tpi to deal with fragmentation, they have more faith and it now than a few months ago so they can be this hawkish. guy: one was saying the ecb to go deep into restrictive territory if needed. but is a really big shift in the narrative and in terms of the language. the market got its arms around that story yesterday. the question of the day, how bad does it get? let's kick it around. we're hearing from ecb speakers today and they are really reinforcing the message we got from christine lagarde yesterday. the market coming into yesterday was nowhere near that kind of language. how bad could it get for european assets? >> if you look at the italian premium gauges the gauges how much risk we are saying in italy for example, the market is trying to respond perhaps aggressively to be message and they're finally listening to policy members who are saying we are not stepping down, inflation is the biggest goal even if session comes ahead. i don't think we will have to worry as much about session

. >> the tpi rate is very important. >>> still to come, as u.s. politicians trade barbs over the best way to stimulate growth. people really love snapshot from progressive, but don't just listen to me. listen to these happy progressive customers. i plugged in snapshot, and 30 days later, i was saving big on car insurance. with snapshot, i knew what i could save before i switched to progressive. the better i drive, the more i save. i wish our company had something this cool. you're not filming this, are you? aw! camera shy. snapshot from progressive. test-drive snapshot before you switch. visit progressive.com today. >>> welcome back. let's take a quick look at u.s. futures. didn't see too much movement earlier in the session. now we're seeing the s&p and dow jones moving to the downside. nasdaq is working to add five point but 11 points. two or three for s&p 500. now. >>> to stimulate or not to stimulate, the question dividing many economists and dominating policy discussions around the world. noble prize winner paul krugman has add row indicated f

that inflation rates, the tpi, that key rate, to remain at or around 4% for a while. high inflation for a considerable time. that is the problem. they thought they might see inflation started to use, -- to ease. now they see 4% inflation. they are acknowledging that it is an issue into the government has the same problem. the new president coming in in may, the new finance minister, they all know that they have to fight inflation. the problem is they want to spend money. that is where they might get tough. but for now, the bank of korea for today is good for a while. it is clear, tighten rates, fight inflation. david: kathleen hays in new york and husband almond and singapore. just a final note in singapore, that big move. you're sending the currency up, not just against the dollar, up against pretty much everything will currency in the world right now. bloomberg really visualizes this move for you. there you go. that's not it. i promise we will take this for you. let's get to your first word headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the u.s. is sending ukraine $800 million

romaine: did you see the interview from the tpi cap ceo? you can't take risks unless you are in the office -- is that the gist of it? sonali: it's an interesting idea. you see people bringing the traders back and many banks, there are essentially war rooms being made for these traders who needed to be there because things are happening so quickly. but the question comes up again as you have folks like j.p. morgan warning of year and funding stresses, the worry about the underlying market makes you want your people close by and on call. romaine: do you plan to go out and stand outside these banks once again and corral these people? sonali: next week, there are two conferences -- there's salt and that digital asset conference wringing in people from all over the world. so while this week is very muted, next week, there will be people running around. romaine: i hope it doesn't rain on them. coming up on this program, we will talk about the european union trying to phase out internal combustion engines by 2035. lamborghini looks to the fed up it

it's the threat of that inflation possibility plus the actual data that we have been getting like the tpii that has people worrying the fed will be raising rates sooner rather than later. a little bit of trulouble on the inflation front. not a great combination. >> we talked about there too but people look at the figures but the velocity the number of times that's turning over as the record low right now. there's so much cash parked in banks that they are pushing it back to the fed. that's what's been happening this week. they are saying we can't hold on no this cash you have to take it back from us you almost wonder and this something that bryan reynolds put in this week he said it could be really bullish. if people take it out and what do they do with it does that lead to more inflation or not >> listen, it's already some of its gone in the stocks think reddit and all the things we have been covering the last several months you hit a key that i didn't mention. bank reserves changing the money going back and forts between fed and treasury all of this is potentially a keg of dynamite. wha

then, to make sure to ensure periphery doesn't turn into something of a mini crisis, to ensure the tpiactivated and is credible going forward. that is quite a lot of movement from the ecb. anna: can i pivot to the u.k.? we have seen actual real yield today, and eye-catching forecast from goldman sachs that inflation could get to 22% in the u.k. where do you think inflation gets, how high do rates have to go, how quickly in the u.k.? peter: my models would point to similar numbers from city and goldman. i would ask, last week, there were assumptions going into the estimates. those banks are providing, that city was providing. it was based on estimates, accurate estimates. bearing in mind, it is likely to be extending the cap from 3d and a half thousand pounds above -- three and a half thousand pounds above 7000 pounds in or around march of next year. that leads through into all aspects of the u.k. economy. the thing that worries me the most about the u.k. economy's ability to turn into an inflation spiral is the have such a dramatic trade apposite and negative current account allen's. i

we followed that in the april tpi measure and it's important for tracking inflation trends. the largest monthly increases for items for demand has risen sharply relative to depressed levels during the pandemic such as hotels and air fares with well-known supply issues such as cars and computers. and we saw that important effect of base effects. while i open we'll see further increases in the coming months, i would expect those associated with the reopening and the bottle necks to subside over time. at the broader background is we've seen inflation dynamics over several decades now that have led to inflation that is low and actually somewhat below our target and generally movements around that underlying trend inflation have been temporary. so we might see a change in inflation dynamics, but those kinds of changes likely occur only over time. the final thing i'll just say is that a very important part of inflation dynamics is longer term inflation expectations and those have been extremely well-anchored, implying if we saw some development pushing that up, i wouldn't expect th

the tpi is designed to deal with specific problems which are probably not the problems in the ecb currently. what is going to be difficult this summer? the formation of the italian government, higher bond yields. scheme drafted by the ecb is specifically designed not to deal with that sort of problem. there is still a lot of risk left on the table. i would expect the ecb markets to engage in again over the summer. kriti: let us talk about some of the other issues. you have a big commodities problem. russian gas close have already been halted and restarted and it comes to europe. that problem is going to get amplified. 50% cut on the table. walk us through the implications. -- 15% cut jamie: russian gas flows have turned back on but there is uncertainty about whether that will continue. the russian gas business, there is no long-term cost to cutting out the gas supply early. there will be further disruption. the european commission is expecting further disruption. that is why they have encouraged 15% reductions but we have seen resistance. spain, greece do not want to do this cut. they think

the main question regarding tpi and the criteria that they set out, they are vague, and christine lagardethey would use discretion and judgment to assess whether that criteria has been met and to activate tpi or not. that means markets are likely to test the result. we think particularly in the context of uncertainty on italy. we think the spreads will widen further from here. tom: you are currently saying 3.36 on italian spreads. this following the lowering of the outlook by s&p on italy. jari stehn, always excellent walking us through the fed. managing director / chief european economist, goldman sachs. thank you. credit suisse places its embattled ceo. a third straight corley loss. do not miss our interview, next. this is >> it is very clear whens are not there, people are asking questions, but i have a clear mandate. my mandate is execute the strategy, risk management, and be here for our clients. we are back to business as usual in here to serve her clients. tom: that was the outgoing credit suisse ceo, thomas gottstein speaking last month and davos, reiterating his confidence in his

we've yet to test the effectiveness of the tpi. as they do more hikes and get more widening. turally you would expect bonds are rising and we are seeing a strong reaction from the two-year bond. guy: what is the euro doing in this scenario? we have a trait shock at the moment for the energy is priced in dollars. it is germane when we think about the inflation risk and growth risk will be this year. what do you think it will look like? skylar: so a really big portion of what happened to the euro is what happens to the dollar. so put simply the u.s. has had two major growth advantages this year. limited exposure to russia ukraine and elevated energy prices being limited exposure as well. one or both of those affect every other developed market. notably for europe it's russia ukraine. i think going forward for a dollar downside you not only need a slow tightening but an impetus elsewhere. you've got to the middle of that dollar somehow through china and we are definitely seeing more positive signs in terms of getting more positive on covid, on property, we are getting negative su

think the tpi cap is they are, they have been spending the last five years trying to reduce the pay butt they have been the deal, they are buying the business from icap and said they will keep going and may be cut a further. -- isis the voice still the business still compelling well? you have compliance, is it still a compelling part of the business for these types of companies? they are not many left. will: it is the tp icap tradition. definitely compelling for them. pool --age worker average broker pulled in 27,000 pounds. there is money still to be made there. vonnie: does this mean big layoffs in london? : not big layoffs but some overtime. -- theses at tp ica bosses at tp icap get used to the new desks they bought and they work out who they want to keep, get rid of, who is making profit and who is coasting. vonnie: is there a lot of overlap? are the two businesses similar or are they disparate that they can be joined and synergies will not create much havoc? will: the businesses are very the deal is about happiness many brokers under one roof as possible, and you actually have the

hey, the tpi except for hurricane nicole, the storm that won't quit, heading into the shipping lanes of the north atlantic and may impact weather heading up into greenland or iceland. for us, it's milder, warmer, and warmer, and then we do face the chance for some scattered showers or maybe some much needed rainfall by the end of this work week. doug and antoinette, to you. antoinette: all right, a.j., thank you. it is 5:46. a check of the stories we're tracking right now. a restaurant in los angeles. three people were killed. 12 others hurt in that shooting early yesterday. at least two of the survivors are said to be in grave condition. the restaurant was operating out of a converted home. it is still unclear if it was properly licensed. no word on a motive. antoinette: a new space mission out of china. tomorrow the country will send two astronauts to an orbiting space lab in an effort to set up a permanently manned space station by mission leaders say the astronauts will stay there for about a month to conduct experiments. the u.s. has highlighted increasing capabilities of the sp

the president's put for example the president put on the table changing the tpi calculation from whatwe have today to something called change cpi which is a much more accurate calculation. and if that were done, if that alone were done, not in the first five years, the savings would not be dramatic because we have very little inflation but over 15 years it would be huge, trillions. that's the type of change you could make without affecting people in a significant way. people can plan for it. simpson-bowles within raise the retirement over 60 years it wouldn't affect anybody over the age of 12. >> a couple things about inquiry party. what dj has it did not to itself are. >> a lot of damage. i think this last few weeks have caused the american people to sort of scratch their head. first they said the whole government's dysfunctional but they also said specifically the republican party does not seem to believe in being constructive in governing their shelters. and really that's not the republican party that's a few people in the republican party that grab the microphone. and they basical

>> we learneded this with the ecb and the tpi program to help the peripheral bonds and the uk, and the bank of england did it last october that went into a tailspin they used funding facilities and targeted toward the zone that was going into the red rather than giving the entire economy rate cuts, and i think that's where we're headed with the fed backstop more when it's very specific to a sector or an area. if it's the overall economy and the unemployment rates shooting up to 4.5% and thing are getting messy quickly. course, you' right and we looked at these tools and in some cases we barely had to choose them. so do you then think that we need or however many rate ts next year based on inflation or everything that's been happening. >> theell side loves headlines and they love to see their name in lights and one of my coetitors who you had up on the screen beforehand, they were calling immediately for three or four rate cuts very quickly and we stayed after svb ansaid it's a very specific thing and it's not re cut territory and it's specific to a couple of banks that don't know how t

understand how you read a potential intervention from the ecb if they decide to use their instrument, the tpiin case whether that is france or that's italy. would you read that as a concern or would you say the ecb is not concerned about the outlook for european debt? >> we have central banks there as a buyer of last resort. some said the first resort. we have seen it from the fed and the bank of england and ecb. since 2008, we have seen central bank policy support or central bank programs. i think the market would need that. without that, a huge amount of confidence would be lost. the market does require central bank to maintain confidence. >> we will see if they reach that point. in the meantime, thank you for joining us this morning. that was the head of fixed income research at rathbone. >>> coming up on the show, the second mandate at the helm of the eu executive arm with the team of commissioners. we will speak with carlos moedas after this break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $10

carl: pdi have a lot more volatile than the tpi. tend to be dominated by services. gather the pdi into the cpi, it doesn't jessica biel and downside risk -- it seem to be a downside risk. 2.2, headlines, we're looking at .1. we think this conflation crosscut will go on a little bit longer. scarlet: how much of a drug is that on cpi? carl: energy prices and on the terms are in positive territory, that is actually adding to inflation. however, it will only month on month change, it looks that energy prices are falling more than what they usually do, at least gasoline prices are falling more than they usually do in the month of . the margin energy will be a mild drag on the month-to-month change. fed saying we have to wait for the weaker readings to drop out of the year on year. , this is a month thing. you just expected to be by the end of the year. at what point do we see if the into the numbers? carl: the jets effect is not showing up. -- jobs effect is not showing up. we certainly have not seen it yet. thatu watch core cpi good, is where the dollar will have the tra

the company. many may not recognize what tpi cap is, but it has quite a history. some characters behind it. to 2016, you had rivals in london. one headed by michael spencer, who wanted to sell the voice part of that to its rival, which made the company tpi cap. next group was what was left. you will remove read the beginning of the year, cme in chicago announced that they would be purchasing that company. so important company for the financial sector. mark: joe, thank you. vonnie: we want to get to capitol hill, where kevin cirilli is with senator johnson of south dakota. is brett kavanaugh going to be able to get confirmed? >> i think you will, but we have a process to go through and we want to make sure we do that in a deliberate way said that he gets a chance to make his case, have his record examined, to meet with senators and ultimately have a hearing where he will answer the hard questions, a debate on the floor and also a vote. my guess is, based on what i know, that he will get confirmed. kevin: what you want to ask him? >> with every nominee, i am interested in their judicial philos

the year. japan will be a different story as they wait to see if it moves from deflation to inflation, continuing. kathleen hays joins us in studio. >> let's start with japan, we have japan's tpi month of march. showed survey manufacturers are getting more upbeat on output prices. ppi is seen march rising 3.4%, year over year. let's look at this simple chart. it has the headline ppi and cpi. this gives us a nice view of the trend. look how much producer and wholesale prices have come back. up to that 1% level, expected to rise to 1.4%. bloomberg intelligence sees 1.2%, but still, making headway. the governor spoke to the japanese parliament 24 hours ago, saying he sees inflation continue to rise in a virtuous circles of rise -- rising prices and wages. giving a very optimistic view. also yesterday in tokyo, and inflation-linked bond sale was the most massive since 2013. presumably in part that core cpi will be expected to rise. also because the bank of japan will be buying more of these. kind of a supply and demand question. china's cpi and ppi are the big ones. ramy: they are doubting the reflation trade. it came as a jolt, right? is actually job openings and labor turnover,

. * the mta, senior management and board of directors will soon be deciding how to spend this tpi money, the $6.7 million, that can be used to maintain and improve the reliability of the muni system. in my view, this is a test of muni management. it is a test about how serious this agency is about reversing the decades of severe under investment and the reliability of the system. i am also today on the bright side, introducing a resolution to approve the purchase by muni of 17 new 40-foot hybrid diesel buses. we recently approved the purchase of 45 new buses and new funding has arrived and we're able to purchase even more. so, it's great that the agency is able to move forward and increasing the number of buses that we have on our streets, and the rest i submit. >> thank you, supervisor wiener. mr. president, seeing no other names on the roster, that concludes roll call for introductions. >> thank you. why don't we go now to general public comment. >> the next item on the agenda is the opportunity for the public to address the board for up to two minutes, generally on items within the s

russian protocol will not catch the word fly out, yes, the russian protocol, and the results showed that we work better than tpietwork . uh-huh yes, well, how, as a figure i will give, if as a delay or packet loss in tcp occurs at a rate of one percent, otherwise tcp recovers these packets within 360 seconds. we restore 5 and 7 seconds. yes, i also have to talk with colleagues, and then i need to help me separately. because if you really have more advanced. uh, have a suggestion of your own? well , of course, everything must be done to support them, of course, the technological ability of the entire aviation sector and unmanned data devices of stable communication is absolutely. therefore, his assistant passed dad, he will work with you to meet, then together we will decide what specific steps need to be taken, we will definitely help. uh-huh wounded offensive today for yuryevich yablokov deputy director of the scientific and soviet center for aeroscript on the subject of just digital platforms uh-huh please vladimir vladimirovich my name is andrey yablokov i represent the script company, the city of st. peters

if you look at the tpi, it's been 3.5%. it's one of the least appreciated areas of inflation.for the average household. brendan: every fed has its own indicator. top headlines. vonnie: police released surveillance video showing a man suspected of killing nine people in that attack on a south carolina church. it's a white man in his early 20's he walked into a church in downtown charleston and started shooting. six women and three men were killed. it's a historically black church and police are calling this a hate crime. >> a white male, younger white male. between 21 and 25 years of age. approximately 5'9" in height. he has on a distinctive sweatshirt that has markings. the vehicle you will see has a very distinctive front license plate. vonnie: the fbi is joining the investigation. all the victims are black. among them, the pastor. european finance ministers once again trying to solve the greek debt crisis. if they are in luxembourg discussing a possible bailout. greece may not be able to pay its bills if rescue funds are not released. there's speculation greece might seek he

the biggest issue with tpi is not of a technical nature. it is political. it is definitely not something that would protect government's against their own mistakes. that is the issue. if you could come up with a situation where the market is punishing a state for things which it has not even done or announced, then tpi is fully there. if they are doing stuff that is triggering a rational reaction by the market, gpi is probably not the right instrument. so far, the news we have from italy is the new government, we don't have one yet, they want to be prudent. if they don't make a big announcement that would make the ecb nervous, they could benefit from tpi. there is a relationship with the market that can build with that. lisa: i can hear your voice in my head. it is very loud right now. he is saying ok, they will talk about political risk and the peripheries, what about the fact germany is the biggest risk to the entire european economy? what's the answer? how is this situation different, both the political considerations and from distinguishing from the euro

all the central banks, versus the fed wednesday, most importantly, but what i watch closely, too, the tpi better than expected read sends yields higher, and higher yields are supported in the banking sector. watch for that when the fed hikes rates wednesday, if they are more hawkish than expected, you'll see other markets and sectors stumble. the banking sector could be a pillar bigger banks, though, i'm watching jpmorgan and bank of america. when they closed before the italian crisis over memorial weekend, that closing level on may 25th is tough to get above and stay above watch the levels in bank of america and jpmorgan >> comes down to the outlook the fed projects after the meeting this week. thank very much. >> thank you >>> for more, go to tradingnation.cnbc.com, follow us on twitter @tradingnation check, please is up next >>> the latest from tradingnation.cnbc doe tradingnation.cnbc.com >>> in a losing trade, avoid letting your emotion get the best of you. too often, traders want to add to a losing position, but experienced traders will say, your first loss is your best loss, in oth

and if he is, well, more the pit tpi to him. neil: what do you think chinese are doing with him. we have not sn he or hair of him in last 24 hours. reportedly. what do you think they are doing. >> i don't know. neil: what do you suspect, you are pretty good at ts. >> thank you. but if i were in their shoes i all have him in a very isolated location, i would not be watrboarding him but i do erything else short of that, if he does not know more, which is probable, they would throw him aside like a used rag. neil: meantime vic vladimir putn the picture, what good is it for the russians then? >> the russians would as chinese woul try to make it useful to other people, we're talking about information that is tracble to trorists, and terrorist cells and ters and nation such as iran, i would think that you know, you have a little race to get mr. snowden in hand, and to get what elsee knows to sell it to the iranians or give it to them. to make sure they really felt betterbout the russians or the chinese that is what i would do. neil: here is what really worries me, i hope i am wrong. i

jonathan: can the bond vigilantes in europe make a comeback or will tpi stop that from happening? >> i think the ecb is going to give the best try to avoid -- and support italy, for example. i think they have come back and it is a big challenge. jonathan: your world of bond vigilantes. how many years ago was that? tom: it was a long time ago when there was not a bear market like this. that was a walk in the park compared to where we are now. jonathan: in many ways, the week begins tomorrow, not today when we get earnings from her soft and alphabet. lisa went through all of the economic data we get through this week as well. tom: we are trying to make monday eventful as well. i think with out question, the conversation this morning was stephen englander. how many people disagreed in the game? the answer is seven out of 10? jonathan: it looks pretty divided down the middle. others looked at it and said i see evidence of this being stickier. lisa: this is the toughest market i can imagine. the factoring into the supply-side constraints, it is many different areas of the supply-side ma

geoffrey: i think europe -- they have the tpi's to manage any spread widening. e last few weeks or so. i think qt will take place in europe when the market is ready for that. on rate hikes, that is where europe is one step behind the rest of g10, i think that is protected in euro-dollar. with the latest inflation prints, i think they need to accelerate. jonathan: i am not going to explain with the prawn sandwich brigade is. thank you. geoff is a united manchester fan. back in the days, the manager of manchester united football club, the atmosphere at the stadium was dreadful. he referred to those fans as the prawn sandwich brigade. the wealthier crew unpacked their prawn sandwiches and didn't make too much noise. he wanted more noise, more support in the stadium, a bigger atmosphere. tom: we have the same thing here. i am critical of the new york yankees. when they play a fabulous team, all the empty seats from the prawn sandwich club. i give steinway credit for this, a down fancy to sit in the same chair. jonathan: empty corporate seats drives me nuts. the u.s.

and look back to historical presidents, the 1970s unemployment was not below 8% from basically 73 almost 1980 that entire time of high inflation. this past year, tpit obvious example of inflation is up by about 5.5%. did you get a 5.5% raise in your income the past year? probably not so inflation hurts everyone's quality of life except government, they are the ones able to be the big leader leasing the strategic regime reserve to get oil prices down supposedly. every study says it has no effect whatsoever inflation is not only caused by government but they blame everyone else for the masses they are causing. kennedy: so if you want to increase the supply, increase the supply and stop shutting down pipelines. it seems really stupid until we are completely off well, we are not there yet. they keep giving us arbitrary deadlines for one will be carbon neutral. until then, the spigot open. come on, man. happy thanksgiving, thank you so much we lack be well. kennedy: coming up, scientists still stumped on the covid origin story. did it come from our lab? backed? a fantastic new book. matt, one of the co-authors joins me next. ♪♪ kennedy: 5 million peopl

inflation number which is much lower, which makes no sense the social security number is adjusted by the tpisn't want to include it so they can show a much lower inflation rate you and i, brian, we live bit consumer index it's going stay high on the interest rate, i would go with what rick said a couple minutes ago. when you go to the next two or three rate increases through september, you're still finding out that after another 150 basis point increase to september, we are still below the neutral grade of interest. that's when the market will take flight i don't have the comfort that nila has it's not a politically acceptable scenario. >> so what's the outcome, sri? >> the outcome is a lot more pressure on equities maybe delayed. to the extent they don't want to have it, becky before the november elections postpone it to 2023. and this is going to be a long, drawn-out saga so don't take comfort from today's jobs numbers this is nowhere like a goldilocks if you look a year ahead, it is going to be much worse >> i would have to jump in here on the fed outlook >> go ahead, nila. >> if the unem

the u.s. already in ohio, tpi has a facility in iowa that was shuttered last year they had a contract that wasceled we think that within the next two to three quarters that plant could be up and running. anything they're producing thai will receive a tax for pa very quick leigh, how much is consolidation going to play in the rise in these stocks over the next half decade >> yeah, it's -- it will be interesting to see there have been companies in the past that have tried to consolidate this space and largely have failed and since fragmented i do think it is right you don't see a big conglomerate that's dominating all of thor is the verticals and it's the downstream from what people have owned and run the plant. they have the biggest scale. they are very much acquisition driven to a certain extent, so i do think that there will be consolidation within the upstream product space especially as more and more domestic supply chain comes online. >> interesting guidance. mark strouse, thank you very much we appreciate your time. >> the final sector to take a look at is health care the health care port

i noticed that a few of the presenters were very clear with the tpi oar each of those over 11,000 tons or making sure to restore certain areas. i would be curious to see where each of those end up in a end state specifically people come back to renew those grants. i would be curious to find out on the work that they've done. generally to some other commissioners points, we're trying to have more over site on how the money is being allocated and having that transparency would be helpful in future presentations. >> yes, commissioner wan. >> just piggy back on this comment, i understand uh important for understanding the reporting requirement. i think it will be lengthy, we asked every organization to present the outcome but it may be helpful just one impact report that will always be helpful. the other thing i want to clarify, is this grant one year or two? i noticed some have different years. i'm trying to get a different understanding. >> i think there are different directions specific to each grants. >> this information will be helpful one year and multi year. >> good comments. anythi

finish up our conversation, i would like to clarify how you would read a potential use of the ecb of their tpindustry.strument. the idea is we have to tool, but we don't want to use it. if they end up using it in the french context, how would you view that? any concern or the regulator is there to sustain some of the losses? >> in fact, the ecb tools should stabilize investors. reaching a certain level. we are currently 80 basis points. it could reach 100 basis points. the fact that ecb, if ecb is credible, it should stabilize in the expectation with the ecb not forced to use it. >> we will see what happened if the ecb reaches that point. senior economist at asset management. >>> the president-elect donald trump will visit paris this weekend for the reopening of the notre dame cathedral which has been restored following a devastating fire five years ago. this will be trump's first overseas trip since winning the second term in the white house. >>> coming up on the show, we will cross over to the resourcing mining conference where we will be joined by the chairman of equinox gold. that conversa

and then an ally of al qaeda also for the members to allegedly joined tpi. i think this is a watershed. we've always had islamists, but actually having terrorist, the sst was always contesting. the sheer number of terrorists in addition to islamists i thought was quite notable. i'm glad none of them won, but that's really not the point. by the way, and they did this right after we talked on the financial task force. he gave him a grey listing instead of the blacklisting they deserve. we'll have like 900 tariffs in the elections. >> you raise your right here. [inaudible] it is exactly what you're saying, do pakistanis have a fear of tpi and fear that the pti might undo the 18th amendment, so? >> i will quickly take that. it will eventually boil down to the numbers in the senate situation as it stands is going to be an uphill task. we know that the pakistani military is upset with the 18th amendment. the 18th amendment was a constitutional amendment with musharraf who brought it together in many amendments introduced into the constitution including the arbitrar

the ecb. we have not talked about tpi. jonathan: what did marcus ashworth call it, to predict italy? tpi? tom: the first thing i looked at this one was italian spreads, which i guess are ok is how i would put it this morning. jonathan: futures are ok, up 0.4% this morning on the nasdaq 100. yields are higher by five basis points. 2.80% on the 10 year. crude higher than 1%. euro-dollar, 1.0223. welcome back, bramo. lisa: it is good to be back. today is going to be a huge game changer for a slew of reasons, the first being these big tech earnings we are talking about. alphabet, microsoft, meta, amazon, why is pinterest there? i am not sure. [laughter] sorry, i am just going to be honest. i know tom really likes pinterest. tom: dow component. jonathan: is that another bellwether for you? tom: it is, exactly. lisa: wednesday we've got the rate decision and press conference. how much do they talk about not only inflation and out of they are looking on at that friend versus what they are seeing in the on employment picture? how much can unemployment rise before they respond to that in addition t

the reflation trade, they would have pointed to china. this very constructive view on china. they would have told me to look at chinese tpi's. ok at the trajectory. things are starting not to roll over dramatically, but flatten out. for our viewers and listeners, looking at the reflation trade, give me the view on china. jim: china had a great first quarter, but china's overall objective is stability in the economy. they have the ability because they have their hands in so many in the economy to toggle credit growth. they had a good first quarter, now they are scaling back credit growth of it. they are very focused on stability, and they have done a great job. you can see that to the currency action. jonathan: can you have that reflation trade, that steeper curve story still on without a buoyant china? >> absolutely you can. part of it is thinking what will the fed do with the balance sheet. let's face it, when the fed starts reducing the size of its balance sheet, the treasury will have to make up for that lost funding. they will have to increase issuance. coupon sizes are going up, and that in and of itself could cause prem

guest: first of all, let me say index,e consumer price usually the foreign exchange rate affects tpi i inflation on a 12 month timeline. the japanese inflation began last summer, now we are feeling the full impact of the higher and the inflation will remain until the first quarter of next year. regarding inflation, we will continue to see a week number four tpi inflation coming -- inflation. on the a hand, consumption, it is puzzling. we are seeing a very good labor market performance, including an increase in employ people, but they're still -- there is still data showing the consumption is fluctuating. it is not growing very fast. we have to think about the household sector, mainly because of the long-term situation. ramy: we will leave it there. thank you. come with still to the japanese open just minutes away. yvonne: stocks, we could see s yvonne: more disappointing data from japan. the latest rating comes below expectations, and the outlook is gloomy. ramy: the tax gaze remains at a time in two years, suggesting continued stabilization and reducing the prospect of more stimulus.

the tpi report is due. if you have a bloomberg terminal, be sure to check out tv .ch us online, check out our charts and graphics, interact with us directly. tell us your thoughts on bitcoin and gold. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: and just about a half-hour, we will get a slew of economic data. we are obviously keeping a close eye on the inflation data. the chicago fed president spoke about inflation in a speech yesterday, saying low expectations for keeping inflation down may not be temporary. he said the impression that 2% is a ceiling, our communication should be much clearer about our willingness to deliver on a symmetric inflation outcome, much different -- a greater chance of inflation at 2.5% in the future than what has been communicated in the past. michael mckee, are you back here again? michael: it has been argued for years that it is not a target. the role of has been in recent months about whether inflation targeting, whether you're deliberately trying to get above 2% for a while will make up for all the time united below 2%. f administration -- the current

. >> do you think we're at a point where we're likely to see the ecb actually triggering tpi? ou think that the risk will be high enough that the ecb might have to intervene or are we too far from that? >> i think we're too far from that right now. i was fully expecting the markets to test that. that hasn't come to fruition. anytime there is a line in the sand, that is pushed. i would be really surprised if it happens vis-a-vis france. i don't see that as a problem at this point in time. it will be found watch at these levels. >> industry very interesting. i would like your thoughts on the u.s. we talked about the fiscal issues with france with investors. what about u.s. debt? are we lacking paying enough attention to this bond really? >> so debt is el the sevated everywhere. this is a global phenomena. at some point, you have to rein in deficits, whether it is in the u.s. or elsewhere. the challenge that the u.s. market has is that politically, there is no will to do so. if you look at polling, deficit worries doesn't even show up as a top ten issue. until it is an issue in vo

core cpi, we exclude the price of brent, 1.6%. headlines tpi over 1%. k underneath the surface, we are looking at more and more signs that inflation pressures are starting to build. you will what's that report this thursday to see if it gets so high the fed might have to act. you can check the chart at the terminal. betty: possibly heading to that 2% overall. ok, mark. mark: can i say that is the most lying joe has ever done. he has never done four lines. lines joe the most has ever done. two months ago today, the world stockmarket hit a bit of a boat. -- bump. as you know, we have seen a rebound since then. i love my anniversaries so i don't let us check out to see who is the best-performing equity assets since from 11, 2016. is uphe all country world by 11.8, the best-performin stock and evolve and 94 we track is the rts index in russia. it is up by 34%, rising with the price of oil. russia relies on energy sales for about half of its budget. the best-performing stock in europe is actually euro banking. i thought this was a bank that has basically lost