i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bells and saw the fireworks.getting started in just a few minutes we'll speak with crypto bull tom lee his reaction to that dramatic fire sale in the crypto world. plus late-breaking developments as another crypto lendser freezes customer assets. >>> but we begin with our talk of the tape. is it time to double down on defensive posture as we kick off the second half of the year? another dose of weak economic data adding new fears of

senior markets commentator mike santoli. amazon is down almost 6%. >> a continued exit from the more expensive parts of the growth mega cap universe doesn't seem like it's too much in the way of a specific catalyst but more of the same. it's a new month and people thought that tax law selling was a contributor. the s&p just hovering, right where it was, just about ahead of the last fed meeting in the third week of september. there you have it. you sort of had the makings of what looks like a somewhat retested low, a slight undercut from the june lows it's trying to make progress again, the long-term downtrend is still in place. right now it's a lot of waiting ahead of the fed you mentioned the stronger jobs and manufacturing data did put the market back on its heels just a little bit. in terms of value versus growth, massive outperformance all year from value and even the deepest value stocks this is two etfs of pure value against pure growth. it's strictly a statistical low pe and stocks against the fastest growth stocks in

we'll send it over to mike santoli for "overtime. >> welcome to "overtime," i'm mike santoli in for scottust getting started at the new york stage micron earnings are about to hit the tape we'll bring you the numbers and instant stock reaction as soon as those results cross president biden and ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy are about to kick off a live news conference in washington. we'll take you live to

for more on the moves i'm joined by cnbc's markets commentator mike santoli mike, finally, not finally but we continue to get good news out of industrial sector in terms of what's going on with manufacturing here, but what do you think is going on with the stocks >> to some degree that improvement was priced n.industrials had a pretty decent comeback relative to the market in the last few months. third quarter earnings i think in general, the market is essentially saying these are steal numbers meaning that analysts were not rigorous about trying to raise forecasts that much before we got here so the beats were a little bit baked in, and then you just have the macro environment at the moment, too. i think the big question currently is not so much have we had a boom in stuff, in heavy goods like durable goods yes, we, have and it's ongoing the question is does it carry forward? treasury yields backing off today suggest the macro sent cement a little bit softer when it comes to all of this. within the consumer confidence data a little bit of a downshift in intentions for buying a new car

. >> i'm mike santoli. wilfred and sara are off we have futures looking to gains from late last week. we pulled out positive, s&p 500 up 0.5%. in the broad markets continuing that coverage from the sell jot from the january hype. you see what we're pointing to, another half a percent gain. the dow looking a bit stronger up, 170 at this hour the nasdaq which has been the performer both before and after the correction is up, looking at about 18 points right now. taking a look at the ten-year treasury this obviously has been an area of tremendous focus lately in the last month or so although the move last week was very plod defendant. basically going sideways for four weeks, really it's amazing how many people are watching that 3% right now pulling back ever so slightly, 3.86 you wonder if that 3% mark is the watched pot that everybody is waiting for, seeing if it will boil or not the dollar bounced slightly last week up in the dollar index, about 0.5% it's basically fixed mostly down. the yen, you see the dol

. >>> we've got a bonus stock mover, courtesy of mike santoli, who insisted wendy's getting hit hardle they missed profit and revenue estimates s the stock is down 11%, lost a third of its value in the last three months. >>> speaking of fast took, kate roger with the details on mcdonald's. >> we got a look at the new grading system for performance and customer excellence that mcdonald's is rolling out with training started this summer it notes the business climate is changing in the overview of the system, saying it needs a new approach supporting our growth plan objective the program has frustratedsome franchisees, calling for between six and ten visits a year per location, on top of other inspections. now, from some are not happy with the changes, which they call lobe collaborative and harsher, in terms of grading we talked to two owners with decades of experience, saying their concerns are over hiring and retention in this environment, not actually with the grading itself mcdonald's said we must remain laser focused on our world classes. that is a lots to keep up with, many of the

mike santoli looking at the flight to quality and whether defense will continue to be one of the best performing sectors for investors in this environment. as we head to break check out some of today's top searched tickers. ten-year treasury right on top as it always is. wti crude is there below $99 a barrel tesla slightly higher. amazon has really climbed during the session and the s&p does continue to hit sessn ghiohis. e! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪ ♪ music ♪ ♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪ ♪ dream, dream that's the thing to do ♪ ♪ music ♪ when you see value in all directions, you add value in all directions. accenture. let there be change. (torstein vo) when you really p

space he's going to join us with his playbook let's get straight to the market dashboard with mike santoli. >> hopscotching around the closing low in the s&p 500, 3666, the intraday was 3636. it's being somewhat oversold on a short-term basis but these radical moves going on in currencies, in yields. not really allowing for a lot of traction at least not yet it's getting stretched pretty thin it's a little over three months ago, the average stock has made a new low, below the mid-june lows you also have important stocks like microsoft and alphabet as well as overall semis. i wouldn't be surprised if it had to plum a little bit lower before you get the snapback rally that everybody believes we are due soon take a look at a sign of building capital market stress spread versus treasuries this goes back four years. obviously you have the covid spike in spreads and the complete obliteration of anything risky here you see it kind of climbing above those levels it should be relatively close to where we were earlier in the summer it's a little bit below, actually, a july high. the problem is, trea

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mike santoli's back with us.s a bit sloppy we're up off the lows and the indexes, but you have an 80% downside volume day in the new york stock exchange. you have the russell 2,000 struggling trading beat for beat with the financials for the most part down another 2%, really not that far off of where it was, you know, back before the pan pandemic so i think it's still a delicate situation. we go into the fed trying to stay somewhat neutral in the middle of the range right here i do think it's worth remembering we get the adp jobs report tomorrow. never really a market mover, but it's a reminder that it is a jobs week. so we're going to get loaded with a lot of here's where the economy stands right now, and then tomorrow, obviously it's going to be hashing through the message from the fed where, you know, you have had the market in regional banks essentially, you know, proactively throwing a tantrum, suggesting that maybe the pain threshold isn't much hire than this right now. >> i would give you one more reminder

but first, mike santoli, let's go to you.for the s&p, the broader market. but the fact that the dow did close at fresh session lows, what can we read through from that >> we've had a series of soft closes i don't think it's been dramatic it hasn't really carried over into the next day. i wouldn't read a tremendous amount, except what the overall story for the week was i can tell the story is being resilient, s&p up about half a percent. we're hanging around the highs and you look at the same exact action and say, we're stalled out. the market is a little bit fatigued it's had an opportunity to make a run at the old highs and has not been able to get there if you net those out, it's probably more positive than not, just because the average stock has done okay. the rotation within the market towards somewhat more of offensive cyclical areas is probably encouraging but it's definitely a wait and see. >> in terms of how we finished the week, is dow finishing with losses for the week, but the s&p, second straight week of gains. th

mike santoli of course is sticking around.tocks they're soaring after jpmorgan jamie dimon told investors monday that he'd meet a key performance target this year and possibly even exceed it next year citi, however, under pressure after credit suisse downgraded that from neutral to outperform. the analyst thinks there is limited upside after the 12% rally over the last two weeks. you can read that analyst call on cnbc pro. leslie picker joins me right now. some mixed messages for the baj stocks lately. even as they get a downgrade, jane fraser was on the network this week calling bank stocks unlds undervalued and that was one of the catalysts too along with jamie. >> there's a lot of cross currents in terms of news. citi's main run was fueled by the disclosure by berkshire hathaway that it had taken a $3 billion stake in citi. on top of on monday jpmorgan increased its guidance in terms of net interest income which is an important profitability metric for banks like citi and jpmorgan they're helped by higher interest rates and

mike santoli, big move in pnc after hours. direction of those moves is one that you might expect. >> for sure. you have to recognize pnc didn't always get full credit in its market value for this minority stake in blackrock it was always considered to be a great asset. a windfall over time, but not something that was strategic, so therefore, as you say, a good source of raising cash it also reminds me not to say that pnc or any other banks are in a distressed position sun trust before sold its stake in coca-cola, something which it had held for 90 plus years so in some times it might make sense that they might redeem this >> i want to add one point, you mentioned potential regulation here i was told that part of the impetus for this deal -- number one was on the m&a and to raise capital so they can -- i'm also told that they don't have a is works as far of your potential deal for pnc, they had restraints from owning this much of black rock and these constraints disappear as a result of this sale another benefit there from pnc

>>before the beige book, let's bring in mike santoli to make sense of nvidia and jolt. so mike, we're asking you to do something nearly impossible but we know you're the man for this job. which is to combine nvidia, the ai stock, with the job opening and labor turnover survey report. but i know you can do it. >> well, i think those are alongside or catty corner to each other as opposed to intertwined, but i do think they are separate parallel sources of unease for this market. so we have this extreme sensitive to any sign that the economy is stalling and not just slowing. at the same time, the market has been trying to wean itself off of a reliance on the big megacap growth stocks. nvidia being the prime mover there. because those stocks are no longer quite dominating earnings growth, but this rotation into other types of stocks has been complicated by the fact that economic numbers look like they're dicier, at least they're consistent with the idea that some fear we might be slowing a little more than hoped. that's the jolts data. perhaps feeds into that i think in gen

what next, santoli, you there. he's my movie guy.do you remember that there was one company. there was one company at that time >> amazon. >> we're headed there. it's going to be amazon. nothing else. >> we finished talking about walmart, and how there's not a weak point in their earnings, and a couple percent of gdp. >> can i still buy a book at amazon >> you can >> yes, you can. >> you don't have to yet, though, but you can. >> think about amazon, think about that think about, i mean, there's a picture of him here at the nasdaq, becky, remember that picture of him, and you know what he looks like now. >> ringing the bell. >> yeah, exactly ringing the bell he looks like robocop. >> terminator, the guy we used to put on with the funny laugh now he looks like adonis classic the way the world works. >> you were talking about 30 years ago, buffet should have bought that company. that company didn't exist 30 years ago. i'm one of the early subscribers to amazon and i think my account goes back to 1999, 21 years ago. >> amazing, young guy

toflt day we have mike santoli and chris farone here as well.ader market a strong start to the week here, mike santoli it looked dicey earlier. amazon went red. nvidia lost half of the gains. but things are starting to firm up here into the close the dow is up 370. all sectors are green including technology what were the last two weeks and what is today? >> i think today is part of the last two weeks this on going process, this adjustment period of kind of letting the stuff that was most overheated cool off. and then settle out in terms of what the market is positioned for in terms of broader economic recovery that push-pull is the content. i think the big question over the big cap undechls is, you know, is there enough of a payback at this point? there does seem to be kind of pretty solid two-way action. by that i mean, you know, people are buying dips. there is very low conviction at these levels i don't think that anyone is necessarily too alarmed what the is going on inside which is, you know, relatively help nly pullback activity within the

i'm mike santoli. >> tlet'sn to david kelly to talk more about what he sees ahead for the markets and tom ec in the second quarter. he is the chief global funds.ist at jpmorga good to see you. welcome back. >> glad to be here. >> let's start first of all with the economy. you maiain that it is slowing down a little bit, but not necearily going towards a recession. >> well, that's right. in fact,ther numbers we got today confirmed that. if you look at the n construction spending, retail sales, and inventories,ar those all actually pretty positive p and they've pushed our estimate for gdp up t 2%, not 3% of last year, but 2% is fine. this is moving forward slowly. 2% growth would be good for markets. >> what's imrtant to wall street right now? we saw this report out the manufacturing tht se to spark this rally. is the overseas economy for more impo? it's part of the story because is part of the risk. we've seen a global manufacturing vortex where the mafacturing numbers coming out of particularly big export to companies like iwan,korea, japan, china, they were getting verse and worse mo

mike santoli, thank you. let's get into this tech sell-off, one of the worst performing sectors joining us now, dan niles. you're not on the phone. dan, this is looking today like what you've been predicting for a while, a series of bear market rallies that fade. what are the characteristics here that you're looking at, maybe particularly in tech, to see if your thesis is holding up >> i think nike this morning is a good harbinger of what you can expect during earnings season. so i was looking at it closely if you look at the forward numbers, we had a tweet on it this morning none of the things that they talked about were unknown. they talked about foreign exchange we all know the dollar is up a lot. they talked about china being an issue on the demand side, so, again, not a huge surprise there. we know cities are being locked down and they talked about supply chain costs and freight costs. again, no surprise there what's interesting is this morning the stock was obviously up 3% pretty early, and now it's dow

look at the gap, mike santoli.rdre, thank you between uber and lyft it's really widened lately. >> absolutely. there's always been that, uber more global and more diversified in terms of the delivery business that they have, lift more of a peer play. there has been the big question that's hung over the group which is does this business truly scale? i mean, i think that's still an open question. uber has somewhat better financial, you know, economics at the moment, but if it doesn't necessarily scale that we're positive about, lyft scale is much more subscale so that's why i think you have that underperformance that we've seen recently, and, you know, we talk about adjusted ebitda and all the kind of asterix that you have to wade through to go through the numbers in companies like this. i think the investor base is a little less willing to do so right now in this type of environment to kind of give those allowances to a company, you know, that's still giving out a lot of stock-based comp and not really one-for-one p

mike santoli, you first.um up this day and maybe even this week. >> i think today is at least a little bit of an exhale. mostly because yesterday's downside reversal was seen as potentially ominous, one of those things that really does kind of demoralize people who have been betting on at the fact that we might be able to buy this dip. today more or less unwound most of it. so i think at least it was an absence of a new negative in the markets today and also a roughly as expected message from jay powell in jackson hole. bond yields are where they are. they have been a challenge but haven't burst higher for, you know, in the last couple of days. i think all that together, you know, leaves the s&p 500 up a little for the week and the middle of its weekly range and still kind of in wait-and-see mode. not really showing too much stress yet. >> phil lebeau, boeing was down about 3% or so yesterday. at least at one point, you know, concerns about the 737 max again. and now we see a reversal higher by about 3%. what

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day.er's whistleblower. and courtney reagan on a very big day for retail mike, in terms of interesting levels today, i guess you'd have to say 10-year holding 3 and brent back to 100. >> exactly the 10-year at 3 in particular seems to be where the bids and stocks kind of go away we've been hovering above it pretty much all day. not a lot of lift but it shows the sensitivities to those levels we get that really weak ism services number or the s&p global yields go below 3 and stocks pop a little bit so i think there's a little bit of that kind of computer spy versus spy going on with these numbers. and then crude really rebuilding you know, essentially breaking that downtrend that's been in place since july still some room to the highs, but i think it's explaining why we're kind of just hovering here as opposed to having much direction bouncing back from yesterday. >> spy versus spy, that's a good deep track, mike santoli >>> twitter shares pulling back as the social network's former head of

s&p 500 lower, every sector down except for energy right now, mike santoli, as we close out overall aestion is what happens next. >> big question. obviously there's a lot of focus as you mentioned earlier on the seasonal patterns. thought it would keep people from getting too negative this time of year, mitigate some of the pullbacks for now. today it's the end of a strong month and before a fed meeting you get markets pulling themselves back into balanced footing, which in this case would be trimming back a little bit on stocks. yields are inching higher. the dollar is getting a little bit of support essentially it's a little bit of a reversal of all the moves we saw today. but again, up something like 8% for the month of october in the s&p still. >> wanted to point out other charts for the month of october. bitcoin up 3.8% for the month, not as strong of a rebound as the stock market but the dollar down half a percent. i think that's the big reason stocks were able to rally. and gold down again. what is this, seven months in a row lower for gold it basically goes down no matter what

mike santoli, though, i'll start with you same question i asked top of the last hour.s is this a breakout >> i think the definition is you put some distance in between the current levels and the previous peak the big question is are we going to get to a point where we stretch the upside a little bit more and people get over confident? that's not quite happening yet this is happening i think because of the removal of challenges and head winds. right? trade, the fed didn't make a mistake that we can see. recession fears have waned it's not really about a catalyst it's just about a contexts the market's at a record high. buyer to the upside. i think that's what the trade is >> all right keith, quickly your thoughts on this? >> yeah. like i said at the top, we're close to a breakout. i want to see accelerating volume into that trade then that will put it all together i think we've got more room to run here in the next two months. >>> you might have heard about this, but the dow closing at a new record high today. you're welcome, america. first time it's done that since mid

>> sure. >> mike santoli, close the discussion off. what does mr.arket want to see out of the election? >> aside from getting past it, i'm persuaded by the idea that the market probabilistic says the most likely set of outconditions is red waive or harris win with his some gridlock, which is a statue quo type of outcome, in which case the market can make its peace with that policy set. in the near term, you've seen an aggressive overplaying of the aggressive trump tried, because that outcome would have a much more extreme or dramatic effect directly on some quantifiable trade. if i told you harris is going to lose, it's not as clean a trade as dyt or coal or, you know, something like that where you feel like you have a clear path. that being said, i think beyond a sort of final settlement of the election, you basically want nothing super extreme. i don't think what the market wants is genuinely mass deportations plus tariffs on day one. that would be more disruptive than is priced in right now. >> mike santoli and ashish sha, thank you. >>> rick, sh

fresh highs for the s&p and nasdaq let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. >> we're going to start with excuses, and then you get some truces that cause rebounds that's a pattern duals, stocks versus bonds weights and measures, is the dow a good representation of what's happening in the overall market, next hour. pole indiana, that's a sentiment check, the good news and bad news camps are wide apart. take a look at this one. three-year chart of the s&p 500, during this bull market you have the economic fundamentals, liquidity, jobs, earnings, defines the overall trend and then it's a plateau. it looks and fixates on these certain headlines. this right here, march, april, 2017, that was the obamacare repeal drama this market was trading in a binary way within a band based on the prospects for obamacare repeal it was scene as a proxy for the entire agenda. that's what mattered when the market was overbought. this right here, august after the charlottesville korcontrove. guess when they first hit in a big way? early february of 2018, when the market already had b

and mike santoli said something pretty smart or perceptive when he was on just a minute ago. he said the first thing you have got to do is pick the right sectors. he mentioned a couple of them. but materials, industrials, they are performing well today. they are going to perform well if we have an ongoing bull market, which i still think we are going to have. and then i would also add consumer discretion father and technology those are economically sensitive sectors and the types of sectors that perform well. the first thing you have got to do is get the sector right those are the four sectors i would focus on then the next thing you have to do is enhance your returns by having a good dividend yield a. good dividend yields in those sectors is always attainable there is a combination that you can do you can go beyond that by working with private equity if your investment adviser can steer you in the right direction towards real estate. that's a little bit beyond what i am talking about what i am talking about, sectors right, dividends, that's the way to do it. >> you are like

mike santoli looking at the big picture. mike >> yeah, sara, dial it back about six excesses this is the sixth session of this trade-related freakout the market's been in i wanted to highlight one as peblth of it, which you guys have talked about, which is the intraday rally attempts that we've had just about every day you see back even last monday these are the end of days. you've tended to have a low early in the day it didn't look like we were going to stick to that today maybe it's only a weak version of it. but you see today we hit this low just a little while ago. interpretation here is most of the down side damage has happened in the overnight session. the stock futures get sold very hard into the u.s. open. and you've had this gap effect and then on a net basis over the course of a day you do get a bit of a dip coming into the market. does that meanit's mostly global investors and retail on the sell side? unclear if that's the case and who knows? maybe the buyers are going to get fatigued p you have to get up the nex

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bell.arted from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange we are awaiting breaking quarterly results from fedex and nike, two marquee names that could give us a good read on the health of the economy. we'll bring you those numbers appea and the stock reactions as soon as the earnings hit. we begin with the talk of the tape stocks snapping a four-day losing streak just marginally. but it has been

along with mike santoli. let's look at how we finished the day.a few attempts to go positive, though down lower, pretty much flat, capping off a very strong week for the markets. there is the s&p 500, closing up about six points for the week, that's good for a gain of about 1.6. the nasdaq the star for the week, as usual also closing today higher. the russell 2000 index also had a pretty decent week down about a third of 1% good for a second week in a row of gains after a 3% higher week 69. >> yeah, real estate utilities were the best performers the dow utilities also had another sector energy was the worst performer, the low yields driving the higher utilities, defense plays and different plays. we have our closer mike novogratz joining us coming up where he sees opportunities outside of clippo. joining us to talk about the market day, michelle mckinnon, and still with you nancy tengler. first let's start with mike santoli. mike >> pretty subdued day. treasury yields down again it's happened every day since the coyne vire began the marble holds t

. >>> welcome back mike santoli here for his midday word the president said what he did in the stated now buffett fires backs at the critics. >> i think there's a lot of political noise around it. if biden can come out and have a populist message, and say this is a giveaway, and people that run the companies can say we are being careful in how we use our capital, and both are kind of right but the idea that you ston around your company to all of the employees and you have this big liability that was going to dilute everybody else and it's okay because we'll sop it up with cash for the shareholders, that's not great if you're paying more for the stock. buffett has been very, very strict about the idea that management teams would be more discerning about what price they get it ought and he used to have rules when he was buying back berkshire shares and above book value, and i think there's nuance to it i totally agree that the anti-buyback campaign is kind of demagoguery and it is not really based on how companies work, but it's not like this became the standard way companies deal with

let's send it over to mike santoli.ard >> so this one is about clouds and silver linings first look at the set up of a one year chart of the s&p 500. a lot of sideways. take a look. 2925 on the s&p. one year ago, how many times did we think perhaps we were going for a real break out a couple of times. at least three you can draw three examples of where we might have had topping action that's why a lot of investors are on edge what the underlying trends is. look at the update of american association of individual investors. it comes out every thursday. bears versus bulls bears in orange. that shot up to 38%. bulls down to 21 people are getting concerned this is not a clear indication you want bears up to 50% before you say maybe the market is getting washed out other indicators like put ratios in options right now the market short term oversold but not to a point where it looks like it has to go higher for sentiment reasons >> i don't know how he does that every single day >> it's amazing. >> incredible. >> i repeat a lo

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. >>> mike santoli is tracking market action. leslie picker is following coin base which just filed for an ipo. we have information on the crackdown of robin hood. and meg tirrell is refewing the fed's decision on the moderna vaccine. mike santoli we gwynn with you. >> seasonal good cheer, why the markets continue this slow upward leiftation. the s&p. next stop, options expiration, that stuff feeding into the slow grinding strength that we have 2, 726 or so is exactly 70% above the intraday loaf march 23rd a nine month move of 70% the move has moderated and cooled off a little bit in the broad market i want to look at a handful of catchup trades that have been pronounced in the quarter to date look at small caps leaders up today 1%. that's the iwm the rest of the world besides the u.s. up well more than the s&p 500. a little bit more than the s&p this quarter xls, energies has had a big move in a short period of time. however, look at the same four on a therein-year basis and you will see how much territory they had to remain in

well, the transports have been outperforming them as mike santoli noted earlier.ep in the red today is palantir. revenue beat estimates but earnings were slightly below wall street forecasts. guidance was also weak the cfo blaming that on lumpiness of government work frank holland here with more frank, what's the reason the stock is hit so hard, down 14, 15%? >> well, sara, it's really not that complicated it's that soft guidance. that lumpiness comment was confirming the fears of many investors according to analysts. there's a lot of concerns about the inconsistency of government work and the fact that it's kinda sometimes hard to forecast it can always be hard to forecast a lot of people may have forgotten about this, but people on wall street haven't remember that $10 billion jedi contract amazon battled over and it was broken into smaller pieces that's something that hangs over this stock the idea that government work can change or shift whether it's due to an election or something else that happens in d.c you have to remember that palantir gets 80% of its rev

mike santoli, start us off with where we stand in the market right now. >> kind of another indecisive day. for the last two weeks we've been knock around the same area. rallying up to this point in the last three days where we did actually see some selling come in also this morning around those levels, toochlt we'll see if that matters. i don't think there's anything magic about that level unresolved picture here. yes, we're moving around on the stimulus negotiations. little uptrend remains in place. first at these levels back two months ago it's not as if two months ago we were here because everyone said we would have absolutely $2 trillion worth of new stimulus a lot going on, including overbought conditions coming into the week. i want to look at the macro factors here, though dollar index down again today, pretty much at its year-to-date low. a fraction above there it's gone inversely to treasury yields ten-year note yield as we've gone down in the dollar index. that's generally a risk type story. people thinking there's a global industrial recovery coming along, maybe fiscal stim

over to mike santoli what if it is in the markets, as we know it's about 2% from the 30,000 market. take a look at this ten-year chart, it's a long chart, which means all person -- it's not just linear, so it shows different gains in a more acreal way. it did take a sideways move. really went nowhere for a few months, but i'm not sure that had anything to do with the big round number effect. back when it first hit 10,000 in '99, it doesn't top for another 10%, clearly no necessary fundamental or technical significance to these levels, though i do think it's important to note that one could argue that the dow is kind of at the upper end of this long ten-year trend. i'm not going to be an expert at drawing a trendline, but it looks something like that. you kind of surged above it, so this tells you it's been a strong, decade-long trend, but in the long term the index has gotten stretched guys >> you need to put that chart up next to the fed's balance sheet. >> it's not going to tell you very much, sara. for much of this period. the balance sheet was flat and declining. >>. >> more tha

let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard.hank you very much first, take a look at not so seamless the parent company of seamless food delivery service being torn apart today. i'll put that in some broader context. and a stitch in time might we see a pause in the market as we reach these new record highs see what history has to say about that a new plot thread, old versus new media, one year after the s&p media communications sector was restructured and then fraying confidence. that's a couple of different looks at consumer sentiment right now. take a look at this chart of grubhub along with a couple of other, what i would call smaller consumer-facing ecommerce companies, yelp and zillow that's compared to amazon, the dominant ecommerce name. this is over two years you see, yes, grubhub is getting destroyed today, down 34% after they had earnings and poor guidance and a lot of questions about the business model, but these sub-scale internet companies have actually struggled for a while now to figure out what their place is, wh

over to mike santoli for his final dash board of the day.ow and we looked at short term indicator how investors feel and act process. this is longer term flow of actual funds from goldman sachs. look first of all, this is monies flowing in and out of equities relative to bonds and cash so when in line was going up, right after the financial crisis and the bull market started this is money rushing into equities from bonds and from cash then you see the trend since then, it's been steadily lower the percentages are as a percentage of the assets under management in these different categories so obviously you saw an uptick in 2013 hitting all-time highs but in general it's been a steady bleed of assets out of equities on a net basis. at least out of equity funds but look where that leaves investor portfolios in aggregate in terms of asset allocation to the differentiate categories on top is equities it's still healthily weighted .market itself going up and it seems investors are steadily skimming but allowing the market to appreciate and the res

on news of price cuts we'll talk about it with mark fields first, straight to the sell jot, mike santoli, mike, what is on the radar this afternoon >> pretty precarious, carl, 3800, there abouts, was under -- and it did seem to create some follow-on. we're flipping short really the unspooling of the nasdaq trade continues here's a two-year chart. we're almost back to a round trip it's around 3700 at the very end of 2020, is where we're going back to. that to me really represents a genuine reset in the markets though david tepper did is a we have an 8% annualized s&p, this is the defined down trend, the rally from october into november did not win back the benefit of the doubt. the question is, do we have to get lower and reset the. cars and homes, tough for the economy to do well when both are going in the reverse maybe there's some divergence between the housing sector and what autos are doing they were mostly in sync up to about two months ago mortgage rates got some relief nkts you see the likes of dr horton and home depot actually picking up a bit where allied, as well as carmax have

we'll track the action plus, we'll hear from deep water's gene munster mike santoli's going to give his take, too. we're live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. >>> let's get a check on some top stocks to watch. hi, seema. >> scott, solar stocks are getting a boost as b. riley upgrades several names including enphase with a $214 price tag. citing more favorable value weigh. analysts also reiterating a buy on solar edge. take a look at nvidia, also higher as capital markets upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral analysts

tech was misplaced from the get go and one would have such a cause and effect on each other mike santoli has sort of scoffed that you have to have such a distinct relationship, higher rates, bad for tech. lower rates, good for tech maybe that was wrong in and of itself and here we are. rates are up, tech has been dominating and no reason it wouldn't continue doing that even if rates stay where they are. >> the duration of the assets and that goes for stocks and bonds. they should be under pressure. now what's happening is we have long duration assets on a new outlook that is ai-related, growth related, shift in the economy related, and that is sort of justifying the expansion in multiples if we stay in a period where the fed does not come off the hiking gas there has to be pressure on valuations general speaking because of the money that's flowed in there. it doesn't make sense for forward returns, if you look at p/es >> brynn >> i put the 61% that this is a bull market. the further away from those lows, the longer it takes to say, oh, yeah, we're going to retest the lows. you can have t

mike santoli joining us again.t does it for us on "closing bell and into overtime now with morgan and jon [ closing bell ringing ] >>> the s&p and the nasdaq especially in the red and the dow's about flat and that's the scorecard on wall street. >> welcome to closing bell overtime i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. we will talk to two expert voices on geopolitics about the turmoil in russia and the potential impact on global stability and the markets. >> plus three ceo interviews you do not want to mix th

i'm catching on here mike santoli, thank you. mark, your thoughts on the s&p and market valuation right now >> there's no doubt that we're in a pretty strong bull market so we're seeing a lot of support right now in the 3025 range. so anything pullbacks. and i do think that consolidation is possible, because we're short-term overbought right now so it would make sense if we continue to see some issues with trade, markets could pull back like, pullbacks are buying opportunities. anything around that 3025 range, you want to be getting in. >> meantime, morgan stanley out with a note on their outlook for 2020, predicting u.s. equities and corporate bonds will underperform their global peers and forecasting a weakening dollar for more, let's bring in adam parker, founder and ceo at triverate capital management thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> where do you stand on the outlook of the moment? global growth, you feel, has kind of bottomed now >> i don't think you can call a market that easily you need corporate excess,

mark santoli is kicking off its market dashboard with a look at a tech surge let's kick it off with frank at the nasdaq market site, though hey, frank >> hey, morgan the biggest name in tech makes sense. microsoft, apple, and alphabet are a combined 25% weight of the nasdaq composite today back on august 27th, 2018, when it stood at 8000, the top three were apple, amazon, and microsoft at 23% of the index. since then, apple has gained 33%, microsoft improved 46%. alphabet class "a" shares getting just under -- excuse me, class "c" under 11%, class "a" under 10%. amazon fell, lost about a quarter of its value since 2000 and lost three quarter of its weight, while facebook and comcast increased slightly and adobe replaced nvidia in the top ten of the weighted stocks >> thank you, frank. let's send it over to mike with his first dashboard of the day mike >> looking at the best decade, david, in the form of the nasdaq 100 and how investors have been willing to pay up for these very large growth stocks that are contained in the 100 this isn't the composite it's the 100 it's where essentially a

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. >> floyd norris for the younger viewers was the mike santoli before mike santoli, the preeminent financial reporter. a bubble grows each bigger about the tech sector in july of 19956789 in the context of nvidia pulling back there were multiple times over the course of the late 1990s when people talked about the market being in the bubble, the greenspan speech was from 1996, you still went on to have '97, '98 and '99 i'm not making any comment about nvidia as a company or worthwhile investment, what i'm saying for younger investors who did not experience the late 1990s, early 2000s, you are going to have charts that do what nvidia has done where you will have a pull back of some size -- i'm notsaying this is the case -- but may not affect the larger narrative. >> you disagree wholly with people trying to make comparisons -- not a ton of people but there are comparisons being made between what's happening with nvidia to '99. >> the point i've made and i think dan siefs has made as well you had '95, '96, '97 and '98 before 1999. post-gfc everybody is trying to be the next great bear and call

. >> and let's begin with the market and what the fed does and says from here mike santoli is joining us >> and i think first thing i'd observe is that interest rates by the feds are stable for ten months, i think that you'd have to say the policy setting is in a pretty good spot when you've had the economy growing and inflation mostly continued to go down so to me that is the basis for whatever win discuss here. but what the fed does next, it is clear that there is an orientation toward trying to get in some easing action. might not be multiple cuts but the gesture of easing i think that is out there. and they are really looking to see if the inflation numbers can cool enough to open that window wide enough for them to get perhaps that easing in but they have shown that they will be patient along the way to making that call >> and you have a fun take on this is this -- i think it is a great point. an echo of 2015 but in reverse back then, they were so desperate 20to do the first hike and now they are desperate to do the first cut. >> i think that is right i've been talking about this

we'll see you in a bit mike santoli, thank you. meantime the debate over more government funding heating up in washington kayla tausche has the latest kayla. >> sara, house democrats are going to be holding a conference call in just under an hour we could learn more about the state of play and negotiations between democrats and the white house as that malbusiness loan program that run out of money. negotiators were close to a deal but absent that actual handshake agreement, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said he could not put anything on the floor for a vote but that could come tomorrow. here is senator mcconnell. >> the senate regretfully will not be able to pass more funding for americans paychecks today. however, since this is so urgent, i've asked the senate meet again tomorrow in a new session that was not previously scheduled and the democratic leader that agreed to my request. >> so that so-called pro forma or brief session is scheduled to take place tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. the house could then take up anything the sen

i'm mike santoli along with sara eisen.washington this week, former fbi director james comey is schedule dodd testify at a senate hearing. nbc's tracie potts joins us with more, good morning, tracie. >> hi, mike and sara, this is the first time since we heard from comey since fired by president trump and we're allergy lawmakers grill him on conversations he had privately with the russian president. and did the president try to pressure the fbi director into backing off that investigation. it will be the first time he's addressed that publicly. also, this week, we expect to hear from the head of the national security agency and the director of national intelligence. same questions from them. what were the conversations with president trump? did he get the impression that he wanted him to back offer the investigation? of course, this is all part of the bigger look that congress is doing on whether russia tried to influence our election. russian president vladimir putin says no, he also with an exclusive interview with nbc's m

cnbc mike santoli theer bre tho santoli to break down the market major averages lower today for the third time in four sessions. earlier this hour, we spoke to senate majority leader mitch mcconnell about why he believes liability protection is going to be a critical component in the next coronavirus stimulus package for republicans. >> there's no chance of the country getting back to normal without it this is not just liability protection for businesses, although, they are included along with everyone else dealing with this brand new disease. unless you're grossly negligent or engage in intentional misbehavior, you'll be covered and it will be in a bill that passes the senate. >> just looking at the market here, mike santoli, stocks are headed south again we're now at session lows, down 194 on the dow you think there is some concern about the stimulus getting passed, get something sort of agreement with mcconnell drawing a red line around this liability protection which democrats are vehemently against >> yeah. combined with other republican senators not being enthusiastic about the lead