veteran market reporter and analyst mike santoli joins us now from the new york stock exchange. mike, welcome. good to have you with us, as always. who is doing the selling today, mike, and what triggered it? >> reporter: allesxcellent ons, tyler. it's not clear what specifically triggered the selling today. really, it w not about an economic headline, it was not about corporate earnings, it didn't seem to be from political news.ea it wasy follow-through from friday's decline. i think t os is a bit payback for one of the greatest rallies we've seen over several months in a long time. the dow was u 300 points since thanksgiving until a week and a half ago. we've given ovback a little ove 2,000 points fromthat starting this afternoon, you started to see a lot of mechanical hit the mark. it w fairly indiscriminate and seemed to be related to a rise in volatility measure that somehow really threw off a lot of these large funds that had been betting on the markets remaining calm. so, that's what we know for right now. obviously, the major index is down slightly on a year-to-date basi

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bells and saw the fireworks.getting started in just a few minutes we'll speak with crypto bull tom lee his reaction to that dramatic fire sale in the crypto world. plus late-breaking developments as another crypto lendser freezes customer assets. >>> but we begin with our talk of the tape. is it time to double down on defensive posture as we kick off the second half of the year? another dose of weak economic data adding new fears of

. >> i'm mike santoli. wilfred and sara are off we have futures looking to gains from late last week. we pulled out positive, s&p 500 up 0.5%. in the broad markets continuing that coverage from the sell jot from the january hype. you see what we're pointing to, another half a percent gain. the dow looking a bit stronger up, 170 at this hour the nasdaq which has been the performer both before and after the correction is up, looking at about 18 points right now. taking a look at the ten-year treasury this obviously has been an area of tremendous focus lately in the last month or so although the move last week was very plod defendant. basically going sideways for four weeks, really it's amazing how many people are watching that 3% right now pulling back ever so slightly, 3.86 you wonder if that 3% mark is the watched pot that everybody is waiting for, seeing if it will boil or not the dollar bounced slightly last week up in the dollar index, about 0.5% it's basically fixed mostly down. the yen, you see the dol

i have santoli sitting with me, steve. let's not forget the tool of the balance sheet could come into play here as well, and maybe we should expect in some way it does >> yeah, i'm sure they're also going is to be reluctant to be very reactive in this statement, in this meeting with regard to the balance sheet, even though there's a little bit of dissonance in terms of providing liquidity to this new facility and let things mature and roll off the balance sheet. i tend to think it's not ideal if we were to go into the meeting at a 50/50 market implied proposition. that's not usually the way they want it to work. but i also don't know that 25 basis points on or off in a week is make or break economically, whether it is about the message to the markets, and do they feel our pain or not kind of a question >> read the room, right? >> if you go another couple of days, and there's no other institution that's suddenly in the crosshairs and in distress, then maybe we can start to, again, think that it was -- we cauterized the woun

fresh highs for the s&p and nasdaq let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. >> we're going to start with excuses, and then you get some truces that cause rebounds that's a pattern duals, stocks versus bonds weights and measures, is the dow a good representation of what's happening in the overall market, next hour. pole indiana, that's a sentiment check, the good news and bad news camps are wide apart. take a look at this one. three-year chart of the s&p 500, during this bull market you have the economic fundamentals, liquidity, jobs, earnings, defines the overall trend and then it's a plateau. it looks and fixates on these certain headlines. this right here, march, april, 2017, that was the obamacare repeal drama this market was trading in a binary way within a band based on the prospects for obamacare repeal it was scene as a proxy for the entire agenda. that's what mattered when the market was overbought. this right here, august after the charlottesville korcontrove. guess when they first hit in a big way? early february of 2018, when the market already had b

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day.er's whistleblower. and courtney reagan on a very big day for retail mike, in terms of interesting levels today, i guess you'd have to say 10-year holding 3 and brent back to 100. >> exactly the 10-year at 3 in particular seems to be where the bids and stocks kind of go away we've been hovering above it pretty much all day. not a lot of lift but it shows the sensitivities to those levels we get that really weak ism services number or the s&p global yields go below 3 and stocks pop a little bit so i think there's a little bit of that kind of computer spy versus spy going on with these numbers. and then crude really rebuilding you know, essentially breaking that downtrend that's been in place since july still some room to the highs, but i think it's explaining why we're kind of just hovering here as opposed to having much direction bouncing back from yesterday. >> spy versus spy, that's a good deep track, mike santoli >>> twitter shares pulling back as the social network's former head of

let's send it over to mike santoli.ard >> so this one is about clouds and silver linings first look at the set up of a one year chart of the s&p 500. a lot of sideways. take a look. 2925 on the s&p. one year ago, how many times did we think perhaps we were going for a real break out a couple of times. at least three you can draw three examples of where we might have had topping action that's why a lot of investors are on edge what the underlying trends is. look at the update of american association of individual investors. it comes out every thursday. bears versus bulls bears in orange. that shot up to 38%. bulls down to 21 people are getting concerned this is not a clear indication you want bears up to 50% before you say maybe the market is getting washed out other indicators like put ratios in options right now the market short term oversold but not to a point where it looks like it has to go higher for sentiment reasons >> i don't know how he does that every single day >> it's amazing. >> incredible. >> i repeat a lo

. ♪ >>> good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc i'm sara eisen >> i'm mike santolin for wilfred frost. >> let's check in on the global markets before we take you to europe show you what futures are doing in the wake of yesterday's session which really showed markets little changed the nasdaq did outperform. it broke its three-day losing streak plenty of moves to talk about. tesla down 7 costco reporting great same-store sales overnight we'll get to that. here's the future setup. nasdaq down 13 dow futures down 8 s&p down 3.5 the ten-year treasury note yield, took a step back after climbing pretty steadily over the last week or so. looking at the ten-year now, a little bit firmer, 2.34. kind of a mixed message from the big event yesterday which was the fed minutes from last meeting, not really a consensus on when to start shrinking the balance sheet or raising interest rates in a period of low inflation. the word is that that will proceed as planned dent give traders much to trade on in terms of new and different. there's the ten-year treasury yield. the top story th

. >>> mike santoli is tracking market action. leslie picker is following coin base which just filed for an ipo. we have information on the crackdown of robin hood. and meg tirrell is refewing the fed's decision on the moderna vaccine. mike santoli we gwynn with you. >> seasonal good cheer, why the markets continue this slow upward leiftation. the s&p. next stop, options expiration, that stuff feeding into the slow grinding strength that we have 2, 726 or so is exactly 70% above the intraday loaf march 23rd a nine month move of 70% the move has moderated and cooled off a little bit in the broad market i want to look at a handful of catchup trades that have been pronounced in the quarter to date look at small caps leaders up today 1%. that's the iwm the rest of the world besides the u.s. up well more than the s&p 500. a little bit more than the s&p this quarter xls, energies has had a big move in a short period of time. however, look at the same four on a therein-year basis and you will see how much territory they had to remain in

it's your verizon. >> all right we're back mike santoli, we're back with his midday word.sation you're having the bull case being growth continuing, moderating you had interesting thoughts, i thought, on the bear case. sticky inflation. >> yeah. >> and the case has been realized >> to some degree from the move that we've had >> the bear case, in a sense, is anything that deviates from the pristine soft landing scenario with growth not really decelerating much and earnings coming back is going to be tough for the market to absorb i think you can counter that with the idea that again, you can wield the high concentration levels of this market in both directions i think black rock has an earnings forecast. forward earnings forecast for everything outside of big-cap tech is from here outside. big cap tech is causing an uptick in overall earnings power. >> is that enough? >> as you said that, that doesn't sound so bad >> exactly >> better than what was originally projected it is up 5%, 6% year to date that's a decent move in half a year so to speak for the typical stock. what i

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master santoli is absolutely correct.g that the fed could start doing right now is commenting on individual data releases. please do not -- please, restrain yourselves, please don't do that, and ask dudley, if he doesn't mind, to stop pending op eds and let's not have the fed be reacting to individual economic reports. that's a tactical mistake and t. >> they have stock buybacks by a transitory theme richard clarida said in a speech today said this is transitory we were expecting it and it could happen for a few months but they don't see it lasting the nasdaq right now w the sharp declines is 8.4% off its recent highs, nearing the 10% correction level tom lee from fund stratd joins the conversation here on cnbc. you have been bullish. how do you see the selloff today? do you see opportunities to buy. >> yeah, i think today's -- has the feel of a panic day, right, because the vix is spiking so that's forcing derisking. and today is tax day i did talk to a few desks on the private banks. they have been saying some of their

bob pisani is tracking the market reacshown and mike santoli is looking at apple and where wall street stands on the name we'll kick it off with kayla tausche. get us up to speed what we know. we know this is a moving target. >> reporter: three sources close to talks are confirming there's a deal in principle between u.s. and chinese negotiators that the u.s. officials are expected to bring to president trump this afternoon during a meeting between all of these principals and discuss next steps one much these sources tells me president trump has been focused on the agricultural purchase number and wanted china to make a bigger commitment. that commitment had been around $40 billion in u.s. products and he wanted it closer to $50 billion. highest ever total that china had purchased in a given year was $26 billion. certainly that's a number to watch in terms of any announcement that we get from here another thing that's important about what's happening now is that whatever gets agreed between the u.s. and china at this stage is expected to be signed it's not just expected to be a negotia

santoli has turned on its lights people are queuing in front of the clubs into the pub every hero one of the biggest music events in europe takes place here. if you are interested and you come and trendsetter you definitely have to visit in september for the band festival during 4 days there are plenty of concerts with musicians and bands from all over the world. this. concert hopping in hamburg 600 concert. $100.00 stages in just 4 days much more than the most avid music lover can manage. the 1st rate fast of all took place back in 2006 the annual event has grown to become one of europe's biggest pop festivals. here it's less about big name acts than discovering new ones from around the world. concerts lively we go to the different clubs and see who turns out. we did just in case someone was playing piano it was really client phones were switched off here you can have everything d.j.'s on stage there's something for everyone. i'm going to the mall itself to meet the young british band. i joined them backstage. the i made the james and i'm thinking of. this is this is this is true tha

"stump santoli."osingbell@nbcuni.com you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's up to 16 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to faster downloads with internet speeds up to 250 megabits per second. get fast internet and add phone and tv now for only $34.90 more per month. call today. comcast business. built for business. >>> we've got some breaking news on tesla here. sue herera is back at headquarters with that sue? >> it's a tweet from elon musk, kelly. he just tweeted out that the tesla semi unveiling will now be november 16th. the previous date was october 26th and that they are diverting resources to fix model 3 bottlenecks and increase battery production for puerto rico and other affected areas so far, that's the only tweet that we have, but they're diverting their resour

. >>> first up, today's market action and the return of mike santoli. mike, what are you focused on today? >>> sara, this week, the last two weeks, the market has been kind of ping-ponging on a very short table in kind of a trading range but interestingly as we all wait for the cpi number, the market doesn't just sit still and wait it kind of tests the upside and down side. that's what when little sideways stretch is right here. in effect, the s&p is trying to kind of get back up into this year long range, 4,200 we're still 8% or 9% above those lows as we absorb more than 3% on the ten-year treasury yield, close to 3% on shorter maturities and then, of course, oil clicking to new highs in wti so you could look at this and say the markets may be priced in a lot including the down grades to earnings. we just don't know if it's fully reflected. take a look at the path of second quarter earnings consensus forecast for the s&p 500. this is the end of june, when the quarter itself ends. this is from credit suisse and it shows you the historical trend the past

mike santoli at the stock exchange. >>> first gap, now adidas.er the break, we're going to bring you the latest buzz on kanye west's growing battle with retailers. >>> and later we're talk with ian bremer about the political fallout from opec's surprise production cutod, tayand why he tweeted to elon musk, dude, stop trying to do geopolitics we'll be right back. qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq what should the future deliver? yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! (music) progress... (music) ...innovation... (music) ...discovery? or simply stability... ...security... ...protection? you shouldn't have to choose. (music) gold. your strategic advantage. (music) visit goldhub.com. ♪ ♪ this is the moment. for a treatment for moderate-to-severe eczema. cibinqo — fda approved. 100% steroid free. not an injection, cibinqo is a once-daily pill for adults who didn't respond to previous treatments. and cibinqo helps provide

santoli explains what they e, ar and why they are suddenly getting so much attention. >> reporter: wall street's slide er the past two weeks has cast a harsh light on an obscure corner of the market, funds that invest in or bet against volatility itself. volatilityys simpl how much and how fast stock prices change. for decades, ethough, volatility index, known as the vix has provided a gauge of traders' expectation of future volatility. in the past seven years investment firms have ha concentrated ee traded products whose volume the bas whether this volility measure rises or falls during a given day. the most populare to v on volatility staying low, issued by credit swiss under the symbol ixvt l all of its value on monday's market route. for example, if the vix falls 10% in theday, the xiv goes up 10%. 17 as stocks rallied in a steady calm way, it delivered a 187% return. but when the vix surged by more than 100% on monday from 18 to 38, the xiv was effectively wiped out. not before, though, the managers of the xiv and many other investors using similar strategies were forced to buy fut

i'm mike santoli along with sara eisen.washington this week, former fbi director james comey is schedule dodd testify at a senate hearing. nbc's tracie potts joins us with more, good morning, tracie. >> hi, mike and sara, this is the first time since we heard from comey since fired by president trump and we're allergy lawmakers grill him on conversations he had privately with the russian president. and did the president try to pressure the fbi director into backing off that investigation. it will be the first time he's addressed that publicly. also, this week, we expect to hear from the head of the national security agency and the director of national intelligence. same questions from them. what were the conversations with president trump? did he get the impression that he wanted him to back offer the investigation? of course, this is all part of the bigger look that congress is doing on whether russia tried to influence our election. russian president vladimir putin says no, he also with an exclusive interview with nbc's m

s&p 500 lower, every sector down except for energy right now, mike santoli, as we close out overall aestion is what happens next. >> big question. obviously there's a lot of focus as you mentioned earlier on the seasonal patterns. thought it would keep people from getting too negative this time of year, mitigate some of the pullbacks for now. today it's the end of a strong month and before a fed meeting you get markets pulling themselves back into balanced footing, which in this case would be trimming back a little bit on stocks. yields are inching higher. the dollar is getting a little bit of support essentially it's a little bit of a reversal of all the moves we saw today. but again, up something like 8% for the month of october in the s&p still. >> wanted to point out other charts for the month of october. bitcoin up 3.8% for the month, not as strong of a rebound as the stock market but the dollar down half a percent. i think that's the big reason stocks were able to rally. and gold down again. what is this, seven months in a row lower for gold it basically goes down no matter what

cnbc mike santoli theer bre tho santoli to break down the market major averages lower today for the third time in four sessions. earlier this hour, we spoke to senate majority leader mitch mcconnell about why he believes liability protection is going to be a critical component in the next coronavirus stimulus package for republicans. >> there's no chance of the country getting back to normal without it this is not just liability protection for businesses, although, they are included along with everyone else dealing with this brand new disease. unless you're grossly negligent or engage in intentional misbehavior, you'll be covered and it will be in a bill that passes the senate. >> just looking at the market here, mike santoli, stocks are headed south again we're now at session lows, down 194 on the dow you think there is some concern about the stimulus getting passed, get something sort of agreement with mcconnell drawing a red line around this liability protection which democrats are vehemently against >> yeah. combined with other republican senators not being enthusiastic about the lead

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scott wapner, mike santoli, and steve liesman with us. that bearish call from apple when asked about hedge fund manager stanley druckenmiller's assessment that the risk/reward in the market is, quote, maybe as bad as i've seen it in my career, here's what he said. >> it's definitely as of yesterday, now the market is down from yesterday, i would say that, you know, '99 was more overvalued than 2000 but, yeah, i would say it's one of the most overvalued markets, maybe second most overvalued i seechb the market is pretty full but there's a lot of liquidity there. it's too hard to say the market can't go up or something like that, but it's not a very good risk/reward market >> let's bring in scott wapner on the news line who did that interview earlier and mike santoli as well. scott, thanks for joining us one of the most overvalued markets i've ever seen, he said. the tone of the interview not desperate, not like the bill akman interview of march >> no, wilf, nor is david tepper's positioning really reflective of, you know, perhaps a dire sc

it's half time says mike santoli. we expect for the nex half of the year >> six months approximately. co he're breaking out your sendalf playbook when "worldwide exchange" returns [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm sara eisen watching a pop in futures. we'll see if that holds. dow futures are up 57 points s&p up 7.5 nasdaq up 16 after another brutal selloff for wall street led lower by technology. joining us is steve chaverone. works with phil orlando. welcome to the show. >> good morning. >> this turn that we've seen in the markets, where films are doifinancials are doing okay, but technology is starting to wobbl

but let's get straight to the big story we're watching today mike santoli tracking market action ylan has the latest. leslie has a look inside palan-tiers. and the unusual structure. starting with the broader market, what we're seeing. are we broken records talking about the tech divergence yet again. >> broken record talking about breaking records, we kind of are but thais the way it happens these things come in streaks and burnells actually when you get to a record high on a given day the most likely scenario under the circumstances one the next day because the market goes up over time that being said, you did say the broad market, this is a very broad market dow jones toemgts stock market, wilshire 5,000 index i wanted to point out, it is at a new high yes, by far the scene stealing action is in the huge nasdaq stocks, the big tech stocks, salesforce, new york stock exchange, not nasdaq nonetheless, it's pulling everything else with it. most stocks, even if they are not up today, are going more or less in the right direction wit. this is obviously a pretty steep angle for the entir

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew is off today we have a big lineup mike santoli is onic chu and drew mattis are watching the markets we have phil lebeau with us and ylan mui will talk about the china tariffs. let's start with yesterday's selloff. >> the dow dropping 608 points the dow and s&p 500 are negative for the year, the nasdaq is coming off its worst day since 2011 let's check out u.s. equity futures. things a

mike santoli, thank you. >>> to the clear short-term driver for the market, a stimulus deal. ylan moi has been tracking all the twists and turns what's the latest? >> sara, house speaker nancy pelosi and senator majority leader mitch mcconnell are back at the bargaining table. the two of them spoke over the phone earlier this afternoon about both a government funding bill as well as another coronavirus relief deal. now those things are being negotiated separately. but they are expected to be bundled together for a final vote pelosi's office said the two sides have a shared commitment to getting the two pieces of legislation done as quickly as possible mcconnell's office did not kmend comment but earlier today on the senate floor he did say that a compromise is within reach now, it has been a long time since the leaders of these two chambers spoke earlier this week pelosi sent mcconnell a private letter with a new proposal for a covid relief deal. however since then they have switched course and gotten behind the $908 billion framework from a bipartisan group of lawmakers mcco

i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli and brian sullivan very strong dloez close.he dow surging into the close we were higher all day look what happened in the last half hour, 20 minutes of trade ticked to the highs of the day up 378 points on the close for the dow. it was a lot of the cyclical or value groups that led us there the s&p 500 closing up 1% at a new record high. every group ended higher today health care was the only group to close lower real estate and technology actually lagged some of over the groups today in the s&p 500. the nasdaq closed up .6% enough for a record. but not a day where technology was the only thing up. you can see in the cruise lines, department stores, kohl's had a strong day a lot of the reopening trades did well small cabs up 1% st that was its best day since early august coming up, we're going to talk to penny pritzker. we're going to ask if joe biden's tax plan peases the party. steve wise is here we also have frederic baba joining the conversation welcome to you but first, i'll turn it to you on this burst of strength. the fo

read on the consumer first up, let's get to the market dashboard senior markets commentator mike santoli, pressure on tech, even though yields and the dollar are lower. >> and tech had raced higher you mentioned the alphabet move. that is good for a quarter of a percent of downside, so roughly one-fourth of the overall decline so far if you look at the s&p, it is bunched together over the last several days all of today's range is within yesterday's range. so you see the sort of tight little range right there in the last several days. we're still well above even, let's say, the february 1st lows on the s&p, which is around 4030, and that's the idea i would look at. if this pullback goes down to that level it's perfectly routine. if anything, it would be to be expected after the run we've had. it wouldn't be too much of today's decline in terms of the macro interpretation it really does seem as if things had overrun a little bit in the short term and are pulling back. but it's not to say nothing is going on macro-wise. take a look at the one-year treasury bill yield. it's actually been rea

. >> degas, i saw you last night with mike santoli. josh, i want to come back to you. you sold netflix did you also see some of this coming >> see some of what? >> disney subscribers, its subscriber growth outstripping netflix when it comes to subscribers? >> i think ultimately most people would have expected that disney had the potential to get bigger but i -- i don't think that they compete with each other as much as maybe a lot of people think i think what they have done for each other is that they have validated direct-to-consumer streaming services as like just the new technology i think netflix is the service that probably -- so put disney aside for a second i do like netflix long term, but i also think that the proof will be whether or not they can really transition to this ad-supported service the stock went up 37% over the last three months, so the buy the dip works. so i'm fully out of it now i may get back into it at a certain point. i think that they had priced this stock for catastrophe and it's not a catastrophe at netflix, it's just a challenging period

"the market dashboard" with mark santoli. the swings are ginormous >> and more remarkable is you have tremendous declines in some of the biggest market caps settle apple aside, yet the overall tape has had some followthrough buying the hallmark of this month has been the market's ability to rally on bad news. remember, the low intraday was on a bad cpi number october 13th we got through a lot else in terms of poor earnings, clearly housing is cratering and still managing to get up there around this 3,900 level on the s&p 500. it's fairly impressive 11% to 12% climb off that intraday row, october living up to its reputation for upside reversals after a dramatic bottom i'll point out broke this downtrend above the 50-day average. a technical and seasonal basis, there's some reason to think it's in a better position. just for benchmarking's sake, we were about right here when jay powell gave the jackson hole speech that spooked the market he didn't like that the markets were assuming a friendlier fed the vix was under 22 credit

for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. ay>>> thoseo-day gyrations may not let up anye ime soon. hend manager paul tudor jonesho predicted the market crash said that investors should expect more big moves in the year. >> i think we're going to is he a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility. you know, it's really say i'm really bullish,ri'm really b. i kind of see a two-sided market. i think in the next year we'll be wre w are today ten down and ten up. >> he did add that a potentialt decline i market could lead the federal reserve to hold off raising interest rates in 2019 and that in turn could boost equity prices. speaking of which, the fed funde fu markets which reflect traders sentiment about the future rate moves byerhe f reserve, it's gradually reducing the probability of a dember te increase. it now stands at 68%. that's a ur-month low. the market is also interestingly currently pricing ino rate increases for all of next year. that could change though. >>> as we mentioned at the top of the progr

as new china headlines hit the market, wilfred has a closer look at today's bank earnings and mike santoli joining us with his market dashboard kayla, what's the latest on trade? >> as the u.s. and china prepare to close the book on the first stage of trade talks the market' focus is what happens to all of those tariffs? the deal will permanently shelf consumer foerked tariffs that would have gone into effect mid-december as for everything else, an administration official tells me there's no agreement on a path forward with regard to tariff reduction. the two sides are planning enforcement check points to make sure china is abiding by the terms of the deal before rolling back any other tariffs the resources say the president's trip to beijing to begin phase two talks is still up in the air as the administration discusses ways tto most effectively position that trip and potential tariff removal ahead of the election, but so far no decisions yet. >> kayla, what was the base case of tariff removal in the first place? i guess it certainly wasn't imminent >> well, certainly as recently as a mon

mike santoli, appreciate it, thank you for coming on, good discussion. >>> maybe it's a stock picker's market, folks. the index goes down but your stocks go up, i hope you're happy, we're happy thanks for joining us on "worldwide exchange. we'll see you tomorrow squawk, mike and the gang, pick it up next of wellness support products for nutrition, sleep, immune systems and energy, cvs can help them happen a little less. moving is a handful. cvs can help them happen no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving. >>> good morning tech stocks, they are coming off their worst day in nearly a year after the fed minutes revealed an increasingly hawkish looking central bank we have details straight ahead new this morning, the cd signing

let's send it over to mike santoli with more.od news >> it's very good news continued good news. unemployment claims, weekly unemployment claims came in below expectations today, which is a positive sign for the overall health of the job market here's an extremely long-term view at this data series unemployment claims, four-week moving average, much at the lows and of course, we had far fewer people in the country back then. so essentially rock bottom levels a few months ago we looked at this chart and took note of this little upturn. when claims start to rise from extremely low levels and that becomes a trend that's typically a leading indicator of a recession. you would have seen it right here these shaded areas are recessions and you want to make sure it's not one of the trend moves and that's the good news you had a bit of a false potential signal that inflation was coming on the horizon and i think we forestalled it. it happens relatively quickly sometimes and it's not like you get so much notice and you're doing your checkl

mike santoli here with the dashboard of the day, looking at the historical path of stocks if recessionon the horizon. >> after a deep correction it's the only thing that matters from here. this is all of history's at least 18% declines in the s&p 500. we have not yet gone to 18%. at the recent lows, down 15% the blue line is if there has not been a recession after the 18-month decline you're up on average 14% this is very intuitive obviously. >> all we have to do is figure out if there's going to be a recession or not >> is there? >> it's tricky the three month to ten-year treasury yield if it goes negative has predicted in a timely way the last few recessions and that is far, far, far from inverting that's at least a little comfort. >> a lot of people look at the twos-tens and it is flattening and the flattest it's been in years. if that inverts, that's also a recession signal >> it is, but usually with a longer lead time and one that has a lot more play in it. we still have 20-something basis points in there. between the twos-tens. i think it's less than 50% probability. >> we'll see

. >>> and holly name kroft is it a game changer mike santoli is here it's a wild reaction. >> actually, sara. it does tole you how tight will you wound this market was. we were spring-loaded for a bit of relief. this time one of the downside surprise which fit into the theme that maybe the soft landing is not completely a remote possibility too far to make that leap right now, but it takes the s&p back to that level there from late september. that was right before the september fed meeting, not the november, but the september one, that was the previous 75 basis-point rate hike, so sort of pulling the market out of the moment in the fall, there seemed no daylight. is the bigger one is probably like 41. we got this to the highs of the day, we're back to them right now. it's a pop and glide side waist. look at market-based expectations it's actually relatively tame. it has curved lower. that looks like a decent top best guess, inflation protection in the market, but it shows you that the market believes the fed will get there either the hard or easy way. you see this, before the pandemic,

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is out today mike santoli is with us.ve been watching the u.s. equity futures which have been in the green all morning right now the dow indicated up 124 points the s&p by 12 and the nasdaq by 34 let's call it >>> here's what's making headlines at this hour twitter suspending more than a million accounts a day in may and june according to "the washington post. the newspaper says that the suspensions were part of an effort to try and reduce the flow of misinformation on the twitter platform and adds that the pace of suspensions has continued this month as well. >>> starbucks has announced plans to eliminate plastic straws from its stores by 2020 it will make alternative straws available. it will also develop strawless lids for cold drinks >>> and nissan is admitting it altered tests in japan it had allowed unqualified inspectors to conduct post-production tests at its plants the erroneous testing did not affect cars that were exported to other countries >>> an update this morning for you. that mission to save a group of bo

senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us with his customary "midday word." what stood out?e because of fitch. is this just the pause that refreshes? >> what stands out is it seems like the first one-day proper shakeout but just a shakeout at this point one way to look at that is the low for the day, so far on the s&p, is the 20-day average that's like one of those case, very, very short term, in good up trend we don't know if it's going to hold there. i do think plenty of things lined up coming into august that said maybe it's enough for now on the upside. whether it's the seasonal stuff, you had a lot of bears capitulating we had a gdp number yesterday at 3.9, everyone celebrating a stronger economy than anticipated. then we get the fitch thing. it's an occasion to rethink where we are, but it's not even behind the yield >> there have been so many macro things you just cited. we are full of microeconomic catalysts. it's been generally good, but is it enough to keep things going th >> the reactions have been kind of meh it hasn't been an embrace of the numbers, it just tell

now into "overtime" with mike santoli. >>> welcome to "overtime." mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bells appeared we are just getting started right here in moments we'll get quarterly results from coinbase, roblox and wynn we have our team of reporters standing by to break in as soon as those numbers hit also ahead we'll speak exclusively with bill nygren where he's finding opportunity in the market right now. but we start with our talk of the tape a great pause. stocks treading water again today as investors await to

senior markets commentator mike santoli here with the dashboard. mike, i did notice also the vix went back above 20. >> it did. it was barely under 20 i think just a little bit -- 1% index move is going to awaken the vix were still very much inbounds i wouldn't say a whole lot going on is upending the message we've gotten from the market in the run off. the more aggressive parts of the market getting hit the hardest as you mentioned, sara so this little uptrending we have is still in place back to the early june highs, right, that's an area just under 4200 that would be really normal and no big deal if in fact it stopped there. i would say more than half of the total rally that we've gained since mid-june, that's usually a sign that things are in decent shape. so we'll see if it proceeds anywhere from here one of the catalysts or some of the pressure did come from both yields and the dollar, so a retightening of financial conditions after they loosened up look at the 10-year yield as well as the u.s. dollar index. this is year to date, obviously go

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day as always. stevens here as well on the strength today in energy, very notable best performing sector and mark mahaney on tech's rough week and which stocksto buy now. stocks are extending losses after yesterday's massive sell-off but off the worst levels of the day and we've seen a little comeback here the dow is down 523 at session lows now down 110, mike energy and utilities are doing all right. it looks like -- i was looking for a reason yields are still a little higher but everything in moderation compared to yesterday. >> yeah. i don't know that it was so much a specific reason as it was we came into this day with what seemed near washout conditions yesterday and people very apprehensive about whether some investors are trapped or there's ongoing big liquidation. and the reaction to the jobs number was relatively mixed. yields going up. people very fixated on labor force participation. and so far you haven't really found additional sellers near the lows for the week. it's very, very faint p

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day as always. plus our own phil lebeau and jetblue's battle for spirit and tim on the outlook for tech stocks which have turned around and this market is higher across the board. we've been gaining steam all hour long after some real selling pressure earlier in the session. the dow was down 527 points and it is now positive we've got reuters reporting this afternoon that elon musk is talking to high net worth individuals and private equity firms about getting financing for his twitter bid. david faber talked to the ceo of apollo about that this morning here's what he had to say. >> if you guys had participated in any way, it would have been on the credit side. >> yes. >> people seem to be misinterpreting, was that of potential interest to you? >> absolutely. >> why >> for the same reason twitter and elon's holdings in tesla are infinitely bankable. the question is whether it will be a good investment and that's what elon and the entrepreneurial team does with it from the equity side. >> david joins

hour, mike santoli tracking the rally. mike, start us off with the rally, and also on bonds, are you surprised we're not sigh a bigger jump in yield >> not really. these over eight years this is hundreds of billions a year, so i think it was baked in enough so that being said, bonds are perfectly firm, not given clear kind of necessarily opening for the value stock trade to really -- very balanced market today. it's pretty much not either/or what you see here is another in this pattern these pullbacks, all right around the 50-day average. we recovered it, a bit of a tentative breakout sometimes you get escape velocity, sometimes you don't. i will say we're already getting up toward the top of one of these bands again. we've been able to ride that higher we'll see if it does continue. in terms of the balanced market, a couple cyclicals versus a couple growth sectors. in the equal-weighted industrials in the s&p this is basically a faang-like, and this is software it's been a convergence. this is an either/or market. and the

mark santoli is tracking the market but kayla has the latest details on the massive stimulus package and when we can expect it to actually pass. >> sara, the text of the legislation was circulated around 10:00 this morning before republicans and then democrats in the senate held respective calls with the treasury secretary to understand the contents of these 800-plus pages of legislation in this deal that was reached in the wee hours of the morning on capitol hill. they took some time to understand what was in it. it was a few hours before some of the objections started emerging one so far is coming from the republican side of the aisle three senators, senator ben sasse of nebraska and if two senators from south carolina, raising objections over what they call a massive drafting error that incentivizes workers who are paid on an hourly basis to quit their jobs or be fired from their jobs and receive the unemployment benefits that are outlined in this package they say that it would be more lucrative to leave a job, say, at grocery store or at a hospital where those services are so dir

let's go back to mike santoli tracking buybacks.'t been too much to talk about on this theme, such a big issue for years now. lululemon restated its buyback program yesterday. kind of got us looking exactly what the volume has been new buyback, look at this, year-to-date, way, way, way below where we were. average of last three years right here, 2018 after that big corporate tax cut was passed the record in terms of buyback volumes. what we're seeing obviously is companies are much more careful how they spend their cash. banks forbidden to do buybacks for the time being energy companies are big buyers of their own shares or have been in the past. essentially everyone is conserving capital, not spending it on buybacks here is buyback achiever etf relative to u.s. stock market, s&p 500. this is over the past two years. a couple to pointout massive performance gap here largely sector based, a lot of financials there shows you on the upside wasn't heavy buyback companies leading the way. participating the upside i think it's been overra

i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen and mike santoli.emains up 4% for the noo week the nasdaq led the charge today, up 2%, but is still down close to 1% so far this week tech, consumer discretionary, the best performing sectors, as you might expect, based on the flip of themes so far this week. materials, energy, banks toward the bottom of performance today. again, speaking to that rotation from the first two days of this week coming up, blackrock's rick rieder will weigh in on how the coronavirus vaccine will have impact on the economy. and mark smith from ubs joins the conversation very good afternoon to you, mark josh brown, i thought i would come to you first of all on a couple of individual names if people wanted to get exposure to the stay-at-home winners, 2020 winners, are there any that have pulled back significantly that jump out to you as being attractive entry points? >> i wish i was on with you like a few hours ago, because they were all lower but, yeah i think like this notion that just because there's a vaccine we're going

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus our guests.dow had been up this morning, almost 400 points, lost those gains. right now we've been hovering done 100 points or so. mike santoli, there are still some areas working what's your read so far on earnings it does feel like the news is better fundamentally than we expected. >> yeah, i think the news has been, in general, reassuring or not incremental reason to be concerned. that said, i think you had a bit of a mixed bag the regional banks have not taken it very well the industrial health care roll-up also down a bit. it's mixed i think next week we'll get the critical mass of records that will give you the full narrative, but to me it really gets repetitive, and monotonous, but it's the ten-year treasury yields stretching to new highs that yield move does look extended it's hard to anticipate, as long as it's going on, the equity market stays in check, even though we're not selling off much where we are a few days ago. >> i gel people have been saying that it can't get more hawkish. >>

mike santoli is tracking the market action. and i have got a closer look at the key takeaways from the banks' earnings. i am not sure i should be teasing my own hit mike, we will get to you first. >> softening up in the indexes in serms of the s&p. really, it is still the same story in terms of this fallisitious rotation, big versus small, cyclical against growth on a day to day basis today it is small caps, a broader list of stocks doing better and cyclicals that bounced after a few days when you had the opposite you have a six month chart of the s&p 500. up more than 18% we had this little bit of a tilt higher after we broke out. month to date, it really has been an upward grind since the second trading day of april. but we hid 4150 intraday as a high today then we backed off right after the coin base listing, about 1:25 this was from 2017 into 2018 i wanted to point it out a loof conditions are harkening back to january 2018 when they had this culmination of a long and calm rally this increase right here, for six or seven mo