. >>> welcome to "overtime," i'm mike santoli you just heard the bell.tarted for post time new york stock engs change you'll hear from one cop technician who's sounding the alarm on apple where he sees the stock headed into the new year. but we start with our talk of the case selloff in stocks, all three major averages erasing early gains to finish in the red but closing off their session lows with

"stump santoli."osingbell@nbcuni.com you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's up to 16 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to faster downloads with internet speeds up to 250 megabits per second. get fast internet and add phone and tv now for only $34.90 more per month. call today. comcast business. built for business. >>> we've got some breaking news on tesla here. sue herera is back at headquarters with that sue? >> it's a tweet from elon musk, kelly. he just tweeted out that the tesla semi unveiling will now be november 16th. the previous date was october 26th and that they are diverting resources to fix model 3 bottlenecks and increase battery production for puerto rico and other affected areas so far, that's the only tweet that we have, but they're diverting their resour

veteran market reporter and analyst mike santoli joins us now from the new york stock exchange. mike, welcome. good to have you with us, as always. who is doing the selling today, mike, and what triggered it? >> reporter: allesxcellent ons, tyler. it's not clear what specifically triggered the selling today. really, it w not about an economic headline, it was not about corporate earnings, it didn't seem to be from political news.ea it wasy follow-through from friday's decline. i think t os is a bit payback for one of the greatest rallies we've seen over several months in a long time. the dow was u 300 points since thanksgiving until a week and a half ago. we've given ovback a little ove 2,000 points fromthat starting this afternoon, you started to see a lot of mechanical hit the mark. it w fairly indiscriminate and seemed to be related to a rise in volatility measure that somehow really threw off a lot of these large funds that had been betting on the markets remaining calm. so, that's what we know for right now. obviously, the major index is down slightly on a year-to-date basi

michael santoli has a plan >> i'm okay with that. yeah >> always with a plan. i'm in the market looking for a discount all right. that sounded like a song l.a. officials announcing the creation of an urban air mobility partnership as a way to get folks used to seeing drones in the sky it comes after the faa loosened restrictions on flying drones in high population areas and at night. it means home deliveries from the sky, things like food, drugs, packages, toilet paper no longer just a far off fantasy. some big players ready to cash in like amazon, walmart, u.p.s contessa brewer, i believe you're up there in the country here's my problem with the drones by the way, a lot of this is done at my alma mater virginia tech go hokies they're loud dogs bark. this is not a perfect solution it's a leaf blower in the sky. >> i mean, your dog barks at a drone? what does your dog do about the amazon delivery guy coming to your door? it seems to me like a drone -- >> loves it because he brings treat. >> a drone that takes off is a lot -- well, all right you have a very speci

mike santoli starts us off tonight. >> en with aew year's eve rally, the most volatile december i more than a decade left investors with losses f y thr and confusion on global growth, trade elicy. don'tect the new year to bring much of a break from the gh-stakes market movin event. friday brings a crucial u.s. jobs report that will off hint about whether a feared u.s. slowdown is under way. jay powell will speak publicly with hisredecessors and any clues on his intention for further rate hikes in 2019 will be seized upon by investors. a fear that the fed has pushed rates up already too much given a softer global economy has been a major factor, tumble of s&p 500 fromts september high. focused on very strong trends as it pencils in perhaps two more lrcreases next year but the bond market hasdy priced out the likelihood of any further hikes. formal talks between the u.s. and china begin on potential trade further rounds by a march 1st deadline. fear of trade disruptions and chinese economic stumble have been another driver of recent market weakness. at one point last week nearly dropped

dan and mike santoli dan, you're super bullish on apple. anything surprise you today? >> no price increase, that shows you the power of the e-16 chip they have a lot of significant pricing power. i think that really showed and then if you look, the models across the board, the fact they had this launch on time especially given the supply chain issues we've seen in china, i view it as almost a superhero like view of cupertino to get through this. the street will like the no price increase >> what do you make of the stock? it's already outperformed, it's only down 13% so far this year is this a catalyst at all? >> i view this as a catalyst combined with what we believe is an underestimated demand cycle i think $240 million of a billion iphones are in the window of an upgrade opportunity. you have 30% of those coming out of china that are in a window of an upgrade with no price increase it just shows the power of the e-16 chip to maintain margins. i believe street numbers continue to move up despite the macro. it shows internally they continue to have more control over th

mike santoli of course is sticking around.tocks they're soaring after jpmorgan jamie dimon told investors monday that he'd meet a key performance target this year and possibly even exceed it next year citi, however, under pressure after credit suisse downgraded that from neutral to outperform. the analyst thinks there is limited upside after the 12% rally over the last two weeks. you can read that analyst call on cnbc pro. leslie picker joins me right now. some mixed messages for the baj stocks lately. even as they get a downgrade, jane fraser was on the network this week calling bank stocks unlds undervalued and that was one of the catalysts too along with jamie. >> there's a lot of cross currents in terms of news. citi's main run was fueled by the disclosure by berkshire hathaway that it had taken a $3 billion stake in citi. on top of on monday jpmorgan increased its guidance in terms of net interest income which is an important profitability metric for banks like citi and jpmorgan they're helped by higher interest rates and

mark santoli is tracking the market but kayla has the latest details on the massive stimulus package and when we can expect it to actually pass. >> sara, the text of the legislation was circulated around 10:00 this morning before republicans and then democrats in the senate held respective calls with the treasury secretary to understand the contents of these 800-plus pages of legislation in this deal that was reached in the wee hours of the morning on capitol hill. they took some time to understand what was in it. it was a few hours before some of the objections started emerging one so far is coming from the republican side of the aisle three senators, senator ben sasse of nebraska and if two senators from south carolina, raising objections over what they call a massive drafting error that incentivizes workers who are paid on an hourly basis to quit their jobs or be fired from their jobs and receive the unemployment benefits that are outlined in this package they say that it would be more lucrative to leave a job, say, at grocery store or at a hospital where those services are so dir

cnbc senior market commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. we have the spokes paul hickey back as well thank you. we'll kick it off with the broader market stocks under pressure today. the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq lower for the first time in four sessions a positive dau yesterday how does it feel to sflu. >> yeah. it's a little apprehensive we have a 4% rally market got traction. but it brought us up into indecisive range people look at the chart and say between 3200 and 3400 on the s&p 500, it's just kind of a little bit of a neutral zone. so i'm not surprised especially with things like the debate happening after 4% move after you relieved a little bit of the oversold conditions that you have last week that were just kind of churning here. definitely the flavor today is stay at home type stocks doing better >> do you agree with that characterization that we were oversold last week >> yeah. i mean, i think we were oversold there is apprehension going into the election and things like that i think what you just touched is highlighting this. t

i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen and mike santoli.anaged to eke out a slight gain. the russell 2000 was lower by a full percent yields did move today, perhaps the biggest mover on the day the 10-year down at 1.55 investors are waiting for earnings from nordstrom and toll brothers plus we'll discuss the outlook of the summer travel season with the ceo of hyatt hotels. jason 123snipe is still with usd ernesto joins us good to see you. mike santoli, i'll come to you we mentioned yields and the sort of off the highs, off the lows, kinds of mediocre performance of the day but also consolidating what was a good start. >> there's certainly nothing that says that there's a run for the exits of any sort going on here really it's more of the same that's been going on for weeks we closed today 4188 on the s&p 500, 4185 on april 16th. that's been the pattern is that one way or another the market finds its way back to this horizontal line. it's not going to last forever markets sometimes correct by going down a lot from the high sometimes they cor

toflt day we have mike santoli and chris farone here as well.ader market a strong start to the week here, mike santoli it looked dicey earlier. amazon went red. nvidia lost half of the gains. but things are starting to firm up here into the close the dow is up 370. all sectors are green including technology what were the last two weeks and what is today? >> i think today is part of the last two weeks this on going process, this adjustment period of kind of letting the stuff that was most overheated cool off. and then settle out in terms of what the market is positioned for in terms of broader economic recovery that push-pull is the content. i think the big question over the big cap undechls is, you know, is there enough of a payback at this point? there does seem to be kind of pretty solid two-way action. by that i mean, you know, people are buying dips. there is very low conviction at these levels i don't think that anyone is necessarily too alarmed what the is going on inside which is, you know, relatively help nly pullback activity within the

mike santoli's back with us.s a bit sloppy we're up off the lows and the indexes, but you have an 80% downside volume day in the new york stock exchange. you have the russell 2,000 struggling trading beat for beat with the financials for the most part down another 2%, really not that far off of where it was, you know, back before the pan pandemic so i think it's still a delicate situation. we go into the fed trying to stay somewhat neutral in the middle of the range right here i do think it's worth remembering we get the adp jobs report tomorrow. never really a market mover, but it's a reminder that it is a jobs week. so we're going to get loaded with a lot of here's where the economy stands right now, and then tomorrow, obviously it's going to be hashing through the message from the fed where, you know, you have had the market in regional banks essentially, you know, proactively throwing a tantrum, suggesting that maybe the pain threshold isn't much hire than this right now. >> i would give you one more reminder

mike santoli takes a look. >> reporter: the stock market is warming to the idea of industrial revival. shares of big american manufacture others a roll. industrial stocks as a group up 4% year to date compared to a flat s&p 500 indelks. since industrial giant 3m reported upbeat results two months ago the sector is up 14%, more than twice the gain in the s&p 500 since then. the largest, ge, climbed to an eight-year high. the question now is it simply fleeting rebound for industrials? or is factory activity poised for an upswing? economists see cause for optimism. a key gauge of manufacturing due friday is projected to show the first monthly expansion since last summer. goldman sachs economists suggested manufacturing is indeed turning a corner. pointing to higher volumes and firmer oil prices. the pullback in the u.s. dollar has also eased pressure on american producers to sell goods. any manufacturing rebound would likely be fragile given slowing auto sales and a possible rebound in the dollar. at least for now investors are willing to bet that the worst is over for the industrial eco

. >>> pike santoli is tracking the market action. ylan mui has a look at whether the infrastructure bill will address some of the problems that this week's flooding has brought to light >> we're idles ahead of the jobs number some upwards drift between about 45.20 and 45.40 area, so it seems as if we're flattening out before we get the jobs number before, and the start of month flows, which maybe you with squint and see that the market is a big sluggish here still, obviously very much on trend. nothing is really disturbing this upward grind just yet take a look at the relationship between the nos dak 100 and broader market over the last two years. one year ago, essentially exactly is when the ndx peaked relative -- this is the megacap growth here, which essentially trades right in line with the huge faang and other nasdaq stocks and obviously had a big underperformance relative to the rest of the market that was here, and now we've kind of come back up, not quite back up to the levels of relative performance, but the relationship has

. >> exactly >> mike santoli. big week ahead for the u.s as mike mentioned, tomorrow we get november's cpi, consumer price index, the fed decision on wednesday, and november retail sales on thursday. joining us now, samir, it looks like we're getting a tick up in the markets. is this positioning ahead of the inflation report tomorrow? >> yeah. it is a reason you've seen rates falling. you've seen credit trends falling, the dollar falling, oil falling, which you pointed out all those are good for markets from the standpoint of they take the pressure out of the system with respect to financial conditions easing, and oil, you know, kind of being that double whammy of higher inflation and crimping the consumer. that's been a nice thing going into the holiday season. at least right now things are looking pretty rosy. the tricky part is probably the next 5% is driven where cpi comes in unfortunately after that, even if you get up to to that 4,100, 4,200 level, things get more difficult because as inflation comes down to

>> sure. >> mike santoli, close the discussion off. what does mr.arket want to see out of the election? >> aside from getting past it, i'm persuaded by the idea that the market probabilistic says the most likely set of outconditions is red waive or harris win with his some gridlock, which is a statue quo type of outcome, in which case the market can make its peace with that policy set. in the near term, you've seen an aggressive overplaying of the aggressive trump tried, because that outcome would have a much more extreme or dramatic effect directly on some quantifiable trade. if i told you harris is going to lose, it's not as clean a trade as dyt or coal or, you know, something like that where you feel like you have a clear path. that being said, i think beyond a sort of final settlement of the election, you basically want nothing super extreme. i don't think what the market wants is genuinely mass deportations plus tariffs on day one. that would be more disruptive than is priced in right now. >> mike santoli and ashish sha, thank you. >>> rick, sh

i'm sara eisen with mike santoli.ay for rebound on wall street, making up some of the lost ground after yesterday, the worst day for stocks since 1987. this is how we shaped up dow closing higher by more than 5%, 6% gain for the s&p 500. 6.23% for the nasdaq and the best performer of the day, russell 2000, up 6.5%. 13% down on the dow yesterday, 12% for the s&p. we are waiting numbers this hour from fedex we'll bring you those as soon as we get them, see if we can glean anything from what's happening in the global economy right now. joining us to talk about the market today, by phone, from merrill lynch and still with us, nancy tengler from laflor tengler. just another crazy wild swing day, mike. >> it was, sara. you can walk away from it and say okay, it's an acceptable bounce after such a washout that we've had in recent days gained backless little less than half of what we lost yesterday in the s&p 500 you have to approach these phases of a decline with kind of parallel tracks of thinking. one is market is down tre

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading today. markets. stocks are losing steam into the close. the dow turning negative just a few moments ago. s&p 500 currently trading just below its record high closing level, mike, which we were watching 4132.60. >> 4232.60 is the number so close that we have to shave it into subsets of a point because that's how narrow the range has been the market has given you weeks really to try to sell to all-time highs and people have not aggressively done so it's probably in that positive you have another day where you have more stocks up than down. that's also been the pattern in recent weeks so it's sort of just churning here but to no net damage the question is, is it decelerating a little bit? there's not a lot of energy or action aside from the short squeeze names. >> steve, is inflation still the biggest threat to markets, or has the market got a bit more comfortable with that over the course of the last month or so >> well, i think it's gotten more comfortable we'll find out on thursday when cpi

let's get over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard hi, mike >> hey, wilf here's what we've got ahead. a new wild card has been played by one of the big brokerage players. and hit-and-run, one big style trade in the market has gotten hit, but now it's still running a little bit playing in shadows a little look at the macro here based on today's data and whether, in fact, we are seeing the shadows of a downturn ahead. and a high-leverage situation. corporations really taking advantage of an easy debt market first, to this news today about charles schwab deciding to go to zero commissions on most trades for customers, following interactive brokers in an effort last week. here's a timeline going back more than 20 years to 1997 it's the progression of standard commissions at charles schwab. of course, charles schwab, a pioneering discount brokerage from the mid-70s but this was a trade, $80 around 1997 for a live broker or by phone. 2999, went to a big deal in 1998, set the standard and you can see the stairstep down, we've got this deceleration recently all the way towards zero cle

credit markets and all the rest. >> okay, mike, great stuff, thank you very much, mike santoli santolioming back later in the show. right now, our strategist, dave, good afternoon to you. thank you for joining us what's your take from the last two discussions we had are the bulls back in charge now in the equity market space sm. >> well, i think very temporarily. i'm still looking at this more as a technically based rally, third bounce at the 100-day moving average sell in may is a less powerful move in many respects, breath or volume, than we had previously, and we'll see how far it goes. we've gone back above the 50-day moving average i don't see anything fundamental happening here there's no net new news except maybe we've not broke above 3% of the ten-year note, and tensions stabilized, but my guess is - >> you're sounding like a technical analyst here on the stock market >> what's the fundamentals - >> that's what i was going to ask you. put your economist hat on, mike mentioned there's not too much of a landscape change, what do you think? >> i just think it's a roller coaster ri

i'm catching on here mike santoli, thank you. mark, your thoughts on the s&p and market valuation right now >> there's no doubt that we're in a pretty strong bull market so we're seeing a lot of support right now in the 3025 range. so anything pullbacks. and i do think that consolidation is possible, because we're short-term overbought right now so it would make sense if we continue to see some issues with trade, markets could pull back like, pullbacks are buying opportunities. anything around that 3025 range, you want to be getting in. >> meantime, morgan stanley out with a note on their outlook for 2020, predicting u.s. equities and corporate bonds will underperform their global peers and forecasting a weakening dollar for more, let's bring in adam parker, founder and ceo at triverate capital management thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> where do you stand on the outlook of the moment? global growth, you feel, has kind of bottomed now >> i don't think you can call a market that easily you need corporate excess,

mike santoli, jonathan golub. >>> stay with us. we'll be talking about security following the boston bombing. a security expert formally with the nypd will join me next. and when so many businesses are shedding staff and pages, the ceo of the hearst organization is investing what you read. we'll be right back. card hassles? introducing chase liquid. the reloadable card that's easy to activate and can be used right away. plus, you can load cash or checks at any chase depositfriendly atm and checks right from your smartphone. get rid of prepaid problems. get chase liquid. >>> the bombing at the boston marathon and the subsequent investigation has brought security concerns once again to the forefront for all of us. joining me now to talk about the event's impact is mitch ilber of k2 intelligence and investigative and risk analytics consulting firm, founded by jewels crowle of crowle security, pioneer of the investigations industry. previously mitch supervised the nypd's ongoing terrorism related activities as a director. mitch, it's w

mark santoli is kicking off its market dashboard with a look at a tech surge let's kick it off with frank at the nasdaq market site, though hey, frank >> hey, morgan the biggest name in tech makes sense. microsoft, apple, and alphabet are a combined 25% weight of the nasdaq composite today back on august 27th, 2018, when it stood at 8000, the top three were apple, amazon, and microsoft at 23% of the index. since then, apple has gained 33%, microsoft improved 46%. alphabet class "a" shares getting just under -- excuse me, class "c" under 11%, class "a" under 10%. amazon fell, lost about a quarter of its value since 2000 and lost three quarter of its weight, while facebook and comcast increased slightly and adobe replaced nvidia in the top ten of the weighted stocks >> thank you, frank. let's send it over to mike with his first dashboard of the day mike >> looking at the best decade, david, in the form of the nasdaq 100 and how investors have been willing to pay up for these very large growth stocks that are contained in the 100 this isn't the composite it's the 100 it's where essentially a

and mike santoli said something pretty smart or perceptive when he was on just a minute ago. he said the first thing you have got to do is pick the right sectors. he mentioned a couple of them. but materials, industrials, they are performing well today. they are going to perform well if we have an ongoing bull market, which i still think we are going to have. and then i would also add consumer discretion father and technology those are economically sensitive sectors and the types of sectors that perform well. the first thing you have got to do is get the sector right those are the four sectors i would focus on then the next thing you have to do is enhance your returns by having a good dividend yield a. good dividend yields in those sectors is always attainable there is a combination that you can do you can go beyond that by working with private equity if your investment adviser can steer you in the right direction towards real estate. that's a little bit beyond what i am talking about what i am talking about, sectors right, dividends, that's the way to do it. >> you are like

for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. >>>to what is the mar expecting from the upcoming trade talks between president trump and china's president xi jinping. joining us, david liebowitz. thank you for coming in. >>hanks for having me. >> here we sit at the all-time highs as mike was pointing out e does that mean a deal with china is already priced in? we don't get much more up side if we get a deal and downide if we don't? what's going on? >> this is buy the rumor and sell the news. i think the market's assumptioni all along we will see a deal done with china. thinky at this juncture i the market would be comfortable with no escalation in the current state of affairs with china. as long as we don't put tariffs on the additional 300 billion of imports, i think the market will be able to handle that. s i don a ton of up side here stemming from a positive resolution to t talks, maybe if some of the existing tariffs are rolled back you wouldee markets melt higher. i don't think investors are expecting that. they're expecting

bob pisani is tracking the market reacshown and mike santoli is looking at apple and where wall street stands on the name we'll kick it off with kayla tausche. get us up to speed what we know. we know this is a moving target. >> reporter: three sources close to talks are confirming there's a deal in principle between u.s. and chinese negotiators that the u.s. officials are expected to bring to president trump this afternoon during a meeting between all of these principals and discuss next steps one much these sources tells me president trump has been focused on the agricultural purchase number and wanted china to make a bigger commitment. that commitment had been around $40 billion in u.s. products and he wanted it closer to $50 billion. highest ever total that china had purchased in a given year was $26 billion. certainly that's a number to watch in terms of any announcement that we get from here another thing that's important about what's happening now is that whatever gets agreed between the u.s. and china at this stage is expected to be signed it's not just expected to be a negotia

thank you. >> see you then. >> let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. mike >> morgan, going to follow wilf's lead right there with our first installment here it is a bank run, but the good kind of run in bank stocks we'll put some numbers on that and is everybody in the pool that's a question here as we see this sort of risk on tone to the overall capital markets. fix it yourself. that's one company in particular showing exactly how it could essentially help its own shareholder returns by acting on its own. and then, alternate futures. a look at the growth outlook for 2020 by a couple of different means. a bank run take a look at this ratio of the u.s. bank index against the s&p 500. this is the bkx divided by the s&p 500 over two years what a lot of folks are pointing out here is you had a pretty solid downtrend line that has broken you have this continuation higher, it's not really been the leadership group in the last few weeks, but people are basically placing a lot of weight on the fact that this does seem to be a trend reversal if we went all the

master santoli is absolutely correct.g that the fed could start doing right now is commenting on individual data releases. please do not -- please, restrain yourselves, please don't do that, and ask dudley, if he doesn't mind, to stop pending op eds and let's not have the fed be reacting to individual economic reports. that's a tactical mistake and t. >> they have stock buybacks by a transitory theme richard clarida said in a speech today said this is transitory we were expecting it and it could happen for a few months but they don't see it lasting the nasdaq right now w the sharp declines is 8.4% off its recent highs, nearing the 10% correction level tom lee from fund stratd joins the conversation here on cnbc. you have been bullish. how do you see the selloff today? do you see opportunities to buy. >> yeah, i think today's -- has the feel of a panic day, right, because the vix is spiking so that's forcing derisking. and today is tax day i did talk to a few desks on the private banks. they have been saying some of their

one hour left of trading mike santoli tracking the market action and joining us to discuss the climate for retail investors. and alley mccartny from ubs. mike, kick it off with today's market moves notching are you new record highs. >> in a low drama orderly way. feels familiar to some of the rallies in the past. look a the two-year chart of the s&p 500. as i kept saying, kind of returned back to this narrow orderly uptrend. people thing look frothy but this is sort of under control in a rotational market the pullbacks are brief and hort, causing just enough nervousness to ge to the next leg higher also looks like what we came into 2020 with it is almost like parallel tracks interrupted by the massive crash. look at 2017, the year bracketing that. showed this same type of action. post your post 2016 election burst higher which we also got this year starting on october 30th then this was your grind almost all year this is right around where we are stretching through into february for a bit of more of an accelerated upside it can happen that we could have these low volume tilts grind hig

leaders for "nightly busine" i'm mike santoli at the new york exchange. >> taxes. and whether we will pay more or less under a new administrat in last night's debate, the issue came up it wasn't clear-cut. steve liesn t a look at what we know and what we don't about the candidates' plan >>> a debate overtaxes finding a sliver of air time amid the personal attack that dominated last night's meeting of the two presidenti candidat here's some of the controversial exchange. we're cutting taxes for the middle class, and i will tell you, we are cutting them big league f middle class. and i will tell you, hillary cl is raising your taxes, folks. you look at me. she is raising your taxes. really high. and what that's going to do is a disaster for. >> so it's true. trump is proposing tax cuts for the middle but it appears to be false that all the low and middle class will benefit. new york univers law prof and former obama aide, lily batchelder said 7.8 million mostly middle class single parent families with children will actually see tax increases, some because trump would

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.have got charlie with us as well we will kick it off with the broader markets. stocks are slipping into the close. we are off the session lows and actually coming back the dow down 111 we were down more than 200 mental ago climbing back toward the flat line a few sectors have gone green, utilities, materials, health care, and energy are now rising. the rest of the sectors are lower. tech underperforms dow and s&p on track for their first weekly losses in three weeks, mike. but it is nothing severe given the fact we are seeing rising case asks ryes restriction asks guess about economic growth, maybe even going negative the first quarter according to jp morgan the market has held up okay it has. it is list ls, it is tired it was overextented the last week or two. and i have been saying sentiment and investor positioning got aggressi aggressive i think that's being sorted out in this pause, the sideways period the s&p, 2 to 3% further downside before you even have to ask if it is nothing

let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. mike >> morgan, thank you very much we're going to start with something of primary concern wall street starting to turn its attention to the whole campaign sequence next year and probably goes without saying, no leader is infallible. we'll see what that means for the stock market with some leadership groups. and the message of the masses, what's the average stock, the crowd of stocks saying about the overall index action then pocketbook issues, consumers and their mood about their own finances so first of all, of primary concern, this is a chart from wells fargo's derivative strategy group, showing the forward expectation of the markets for volatility level it's essentially the pricing of volatility index futures and other derivatives. and it shows you by calendar slice here when the market believes you might see a concentration of volatility or a little bit of a spike in volatility what's this date right here? well, it's early march that is when the super tuesday primaries are. perha

we got our senior markets commentator mike santoli joining us now what the interesting part about thiss, is this idea that we're seeing a follow through on the sell-off, but not a panicky follow through that must give some traders a little bit of comfort here. >> probably so it's often said that you don't necessarily want to see some kind of a weak bounce that gets knocked down so, yeah, some follow through on the downside did see some work over the weekend that when you've had a decline on a friday, you have a weak monday and then some recovery later in the ensuing days this all makes some kind of sense. and, of course, dealing with the leftover uncertainty of exactly what we should expect in terms of monetary policy ten-year is well above 3% now. those have been levels that have given equities a little bit of trouble on the way up here so i do think there's plenty of absorb although, once again, an aggressive oversold reading we got on friday because of that pretty one-directional move lower and people talking about the fact that there are a lot of these systemic strategies that real

mike santoli joining us again.t does it for us on "closing bell and into overtime now with morgan and jon [ closing bell ringing ] >>> the s&p and the nasdaq especially in the red and the dow's about flat and that's the scorecard on wall street. >> welcome to closing bell overtime i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. we will talk to two expert voices on geopolitics about the turmoil in russia and the potential impact on global stability and the markets. >> plus three ceo interviews you do not want to mix th

i'm mike santoli along with sara eisen.washington this week, former fbi director james comey is schedule dodd testify at a senate hearing. nbc's tracie potts joins us with more, good morning, tracie. >> hi, mike and sara, this is the first time since we heard from comey since fired by president trump and we're allergy lawmakers grill him on conversations he had privately with the russian president. and did the president try to pressure the fbi director into backing off that investigation. it will be the first time he's addressed that publicly. also, this week, we expect to hear from the head of the national security agency and the director of national intelligence. same questions from them. what were the conversations with president trump? did he get the impression that he wanted him to back offer the investigation? of course, this is all part of the bigger look that congress is doing on whether russia tried to influence our election. russian president vladimir putin says no, he also with an exclusive interview with nbc's m

morgan mike santoli is here for his midday word?ople are allowing risk levels in their portfolios to go up i think that's reflected in the fact that we're swallowing new issues and looking for other lagging beneficiaries of what's now seeming like a more firm economic setup so really this month it's been one big exhale people were clinched up about what was to come in the economy and what the fed might have to do to choke things off if we're in this moment here where it feels more like you have room to maneuver, what comes with that is sentiment gets to a certain point, i don't think we're there yet when it becomes a hazard because everyone overbelieves it's going to be great and watching the yields into headwind right now, kind of much more about reaching for the stuff that hasn't yet participated fully. >> which makes you feel, i would suggest, a little bit better about where we are you just don't have this overwhelming positivity in the marketplace -- >> not yet. >> a lot of haters of the rally. >> a lot of folks that are going t

. >>> first up, today's market action and the return of mike santoli. mike, what are you focused on today? >>> sara, this week, the last two weeks, the market has been kind of ping-ponging on a very short table in kind of a trading range but interestingly as we all wait for the cpi number, the market doesn't just sit still and wait it kind of tests the upside and down side. that's what when little sideways stretch is right here. in effect, the s&p is trying to kind of get back up into this year long range, 4,200 we're still 8% or 9% above those lows as we absorb more than 3% on the ten-year treasury yield, close to 3% on shorter maturities and then, of course, oil clicking to new highs in wti so you could look at this and say the markets may be priced in a lot including the down grades to earnings. we just don't know if it's fully reflected. take a look at the path of second quarter earnings consensus forecast for the s&p 500. this is the end of june, when the quarter itself ends. this is from credit suisse and it shows you the historical trend the past

for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. ay>>> thoseo-day gyrations may not let up anye ime soon. hend manager paul tudor jonesho predicted the market crash said that investors should expect more big moves in the year. >> i think we're going to is he a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility. you know, it's really say i'm really bullish,ri'm really b. i kind of see a two-sided market. i think in the next year we'll be wre w are today ten down and ten up. >> he did add that a potentialt decline i market could lead the federal reserve to hold off raising interest rates in 2019 and that in turn could boost equity prices. speaking of which, the fed funde fu markets which reflect traders sentiment about the future rate moves byerhe f reserve, it's gradually reducing the probability of a dember te increase. it now stands at 68%. that's a ur-month low. the market is also interestingly currently pricing ino rate increases for all of next year. that could change though. >>> as we mentioned at the top of the progr

see you in a few hours that's mike santoli at the stock exchange grade my trade is up next. tweet us. we'll do that on the other side of this break. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones another busy day? let's of course, you'ref it. a cio in 2023. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business, with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want... your team, ours or a mix of both... with the nation's largest ip converged network, from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities™. the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ >>> it's time for grade my trade. amy, you are up first, from wayne, i added slb, formerly known as schlumberger, added it at 34 last year. should i continue

but let's get straight to the big story we're watching today mike santoli tracking market action ylan has the latest. leslie has a look inside palan-tiers. and the unusual structure. starting with the broader market, what we're seeing. are we broken records talking about the tech divergence yet again. >> broken record talking about breaking records, we kind of are but thais the way it happens these things come in streaks and burnells actually when you get to a record high on a given day the most likely scenario under the circumstances one the next day because the market goes up over time that being said, you did say the broad market, this is a very broad market dow jones toemgts stock market, wilshire 5,000 index i wanted to point out, it is at a new high yes, by far the scene stealing action is in the huge nasdaq stocks, the big tech stocks, salesforce, new york stock exchange, not nasdaq nonetheless, it's pulling everything else with it. most stocks, even if they are not up today, are going more or less in the right direction wit. this is obviously a pretty steep angle for the entir

mike santoli, big move lower today in the shares. it had been an outperformer.mer staples in general are sort of taking a back seat to the rally. >> the product might have a place for the long term as he said, but the stock is not really a stock of the moment right now, yeah, you can lean on the fact that it does have countercyclical attributes in a tougher economy and, you know, the business probably being run better and you also would have to bet that there are going to be enduring changes in terms of eating at home but at this point, you know, dividend yields still under 3% and the valuation is again not really rock bottom, so i do think it's the kind of stock in this current risk on aggressive take is not necessarily going to perform. >> it's not a good recession stock either historically, if you bought this in 2007 and nailed it, like, people are going to be eating home because of the economic pressure, you lost money, like the stock did not have the same recovery as the overall market and it's not like it rallied so if you're going by what the ceo is talki

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about the moves in techthe last week or so >> let's focus on the big stories we're watching mike santoli is tracking the action deirdre bosa has more on amazon's earnings pop. >> let's start with you, mike. what's the big picture look like >> yeah, a lot of push and pull within this market today it's netting out to the positive side for the s&p 500, though it's an odd mix. amazon's huge move to the upside is kicking in about half a persnlt of upside to the s&p 500. you see that's basically half of its gains so far today even as energy and bank stocks thrive because yields are flying after the strong jobs number one thing i'll say, we haven't necessary defined anything in terms of the next major move directionally. we have not been able to break above just yet the downtrend we had right there, so nothing that's gone on this week undermines the idea that a week ago monday we saw a pretty good trading low in the s&p so we have 300 points of cushion there. but also hasn't really been able to get out of its own way this week with a lot of back and forth. still trading below yesterday's high a

mike santoli remembers the flash crash. >> sure., right >> always, you can ask mike santoli, we got to bring back the trivia gentlemen, thank you, both appreciate it. mike santoli and mike bailey >>> let's get to the bond market ten year is lower after this morning's inflation data rick santelli has the latest. >> treasury yields are lower on the day. the ten-year, as you look the a chart that starts last friday, still a couple of basis points higher on the week what is the motivation for these moves? let's go to our guest chem and the white board here chem, this is a pretty easy read here, okay here is our income data, the florida metrics for inflation embedded into the number if you look at the top, is it -- this is last month, this is this month. what conclusions can you draw? >> stagnation, inflation stagf stagflation, right this is what we have been talking on and on. people call it a soft landing. it is not a soft landing still a hot inflation number with a slowing economy >> yeah, there is very little doubt. these numbers are

mike santoli, take us through the internals. the. >> pretty strong all day, sara the new york stock exchange volume about 80% in upside issues that is the case all day so fairly solid and relatively broad rally. take a look at small versus large growth this is the russell 2000 against the nasdaq 100 now you see huge outperformance today, a bounce on the relative basis for the small caps up 2.8% coming into today for this month, the nasdaq 100 hit outperform by 5% so this is really just a reversion bounce at this point not sure if it's going to last from here. take a look at the volatility index. it stayed in the 30s for quite some time. under 33 is a pretty good sign that there is a little bit of a spike at 36 on friday. so that's kind of not an all clear but helpful. and now we're going toward a three day weekend in the summer. that means this should actually bleed lower as the week goes on. >> just under one minute left. thank you. we're up 2.1% now off 530 points on the dow the dow is certainly outperforming in the other that