mitt romney emerging. rudy giuliani emerged again. they've both been in the frame before. >> here's the thing, a candidate is never as popular as he is or she is the moment before they announce. the moment they announce, they all start going down -- >> -- republican candidate right now? >> i'd say right now it would be either pawlenty or romney. that's what i'm thinking. look, something major could change. here's what i think. the election is going to be on barack obama. who else is -- who the republicans put up there is almost irrelevant. unless they put a crazy up there. and then people will vote for obama anyway. but this is -- every presidential election is a referendum on the administration currently in power. there are no exceptions to that. and so right now people will be judging barack obama. i still think in the end he wins. i still think in the end -- >> i would just throw one spanner in the works. it appears at the moment he's likely to win.