you were absolutely right that the statistical indications from el nino are that in fact actually increases in the upper level wind and as a result if you will, knocks off one, shears off the developing storms therefore diminishes number and intensity of them so based on the physics one would assume you would see reduced the probability. as you know this year's outlook effectively said 50% probability of 9-14 named storms. on august 6th we will identify how that has changed. i would simply point out that the possibility of named storms does not of and by itself give any indication what the season will look like. i remind you of course hurricane andrew there for the first named storm occurred in late august. the latest named storm that is to say first hurricane occurred august 30 if that was hurricane