one phenomenon to consider here,
the bradley effect.
that term was first coined 35
years ago when african-american
tom bradley, by the polls,
looked to be a shoo-in for
california's governor.
only he lost.
some political scientists
reasoned thereafter voters were
saying yes to pollsters over the
phone or in person, but when in
the polling booth with nobody
around, could not and did not
vote for an african-american
candidate.
with donald trump, it could have
been something similar.
when asked by a pollster over
the phone, donald trump
supporters did not admit their
support for trump.
when in the voting booth with
nobody around, they instead did
vote for donald trump, a reverse
bradley effect, if you will.
we saw hint of this during the
primaries.
538 found trump polled six
percentage points lower on
average in live interviews
compared to digital polling
where they didn't have to talk
to anybody.
perhaps why his surprise win in
the primary and later in the
general just days ago.
voters...