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we're joined by aaron david miller, who was a longtime negotiator in the middle east, as well as kimmeberly dozier. good to have you on. aaron david miller, it appears the u.s. president, after october 7th, he deliberately wanted to make the u.s. approach this with some balance. when he flew out to the region, he was going to meet with the israeli leaders, which he did, then arab leaders. but that summit, as it were, was cancelled with the initial reports of the hospital strike initially blamed on israel. but now u.s. intelligence, the assessment has been that that was actually a palestinian -- a hamas rocket, rather, that fell on the hospital. that summit was cancelled. but the clear direction of the arab world's impression of this is that the u.s. is on israel's side and israel's side alone. is that fair? >> you know, jim, thanks for having me. october 10th, the president set a pretty strong frame in which he sent a signal that he was prepared in response to the brutal slaughter on october 7th. but he sent an unmistakable message he was going to give the israeli government the time, space

i'm joined by aaron david miller, aaron good to see you.'ve been there for other attacks on israel. how does what we're seeing today compare with what you've been there for in the past? >> jake, things are add manipulate, it goes beyond anything desc israelis have seed the united states have seen. pursued a pretty risk diverse strategy against hamas, and occasionally when hamas reacted with rockets the fight got pretty brutal. like in 2021. i think you're witnessing since this israel prime minister just on this issue but on other ones, have become not risk averse but risk ready. the overall in trying to given the brutality and the savagery and the stories yet to be told and the ongoing fights the blood is up. i think that the israelis have reached the conclusion that risk aversion when it comes to gaza is no whronger fees -- longer feasible or desirable. i think what you're going to see, i think it will take some days maybe longer is a change of strategy. i think what's coming is a pretty dramatic air, sea and ground attack against gaza. de

i'll ask aaron david miller, a former middle east analyst for the state department. and later, the nation in the world say goodbye to dear friend matthew perry. what we know about his sudden passing. that's ahead on msnbc reports. what? my back feels better. [rewind sound] before advil: [grunts] oh. advil dual action back pain fights back pain two ways. for 8 hours of relief. my skin has been so much smoother so much more hydrated. it's olay! with olay hyaluronic body wash 95% of women had visibly-better skin. and my skin is so much more moisturized. see the difference with olay. >> we are back with the latest out of maine. a community that is slowly picking up the pieces after wednesday's mass shooting. as we speak -- thousands are expected, including the governor, as the community grieves andheels, there are still many questio as to whether more been done to prevent the shooting. the new york times reports that one sheriff in maine had sent a statewide alert after the gunman and army -- threats against his base. joining us now is nbc's george slavia's live from --

aaron david miller is still with us as we wait for martin to get more information and to come back on to talk to us. aaron, thanks for sticking by. we appreciate it. that's part of the reason why this is such a difficult thing to cover as a reporter. it is part of the reason why it's difficult to untangle diplomatically, is that a lot of these wounds run so deep that everybody has an intimate story about something or other. obviously this is i mean, what we have been talking about for two weeks is insane and awful and horrible, and it's only going to make it harder, i imagine, to come to a diplomatic solution to all of us. >> yeah, i don't think diplomacy, frankly is on anyone's mind right now. for the israelis, it's a cruel dilemma, on one hand they have a commitment to the 1,400 israelis, soldiers and civilians killed by hamas. and grieving hundreds of thousands of people who knew and loved them. on the other, they have a commitment to redeem the living, the hostages. and each one of those individuals represents a universe of possibility. and to have to make that decision, what do y

aaron david miller, it's an honor.k you for having me. >> protests across the country on both sides of the story. that's coming up next. oming up next. this is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. ♪ announcer: try tide power pods with 85% more tide in every pod. who needs that much more tide? everyone's gonna need more tide. it's a mess out there. that's why there's 85% more tide in every power pod. -see? -ah. >> more breaking news. a lot happening this hour. violence of israel and gaza heightening teeth tensions here in home. hundreds gathering in times square to protest the barrage of -- following the hamas attack. also some demonstrations in london, india, germany, as well. reports on both sides of this story. joining us now from miami, nbc's marissa power. i want to start off with you. you spoken to parents in the united states who were personally affected by this war. you are j

also aaron david miller is joining us as well.his is going to be important, because these family members of the hostages want answers. >> they have demanded answers. i mean, this is the anniversary, the three-week anniversary of the october 7th attack by hamas. when you imagine they have been waiting for this long to have some concrete answers about what the plan is, now they're not just asking where are my loved one and what do you know. they're now asking will this ground incursion have a negative effect on the potential of them being able to leave and their well-being. they want direct and clear answers. they want to know what they are dealing with, because a lot of them -- and i've spoken to several -- all the horrible things that sort of rattle around in your head about what can happen to your loved ones. they've been waiting for so long and they've seen four people of the 20-plus people still being held by hamas released, giving them some hope, but hope being dashed when you see these huge bombardments and the ground forces

aaron david miller, you've reported and covered on this region for so many years. hamas claims it has taken dozens of israelis hostage, kidnapped a whole bunch of israeli military and civilian folks. president biden says entire families were among those taken. how does this complicate israel's response? >> it introduces a measure of human and political and even security complexity into this equation. for years the assumption has always been that the israelis would not mount a major incursion into gaza, land, sea, and air, in order to decapitate hamas leadership. and to in their view deal hamas a blow from which it would not recover. i think the israeli spokesman, i think at least three times during your questioning laid the predicate for a new and even transformative set of israeli tactics designed to do what they have not done, what they have been risk averse in doing for decades. the level of casualties and the hostages, particularly the hostages, introduce a major constraint, and on one hand it's conceivable that large numbers of israeli hostages could produce a

we're joined now by middle east negotiate aaron david miller. as we're getting these updates i want to make sure i bring them to you and our viewers. israel police since the early morning closed crossings for palestinians wanting to enter jerusalem from surrounding attack points. attack on this scale, ground, air, sea and to come as a surprise, first, just your reaction to the pictures and the reports that are coming in. >> i think it's really stunning and extraordinary. 50 years ago yesterday i was in jerusalem listening to the sirens go off as the egyptians and the israelis mounted a surprise attack. this is not that with respect to scale. or severity but this is a trauma and a political, huge political challenge for the netanyahu government. as in '73, clearly there was a massive intelligence failure here. that the israelis didn't know and couldn't anticipate or preempt a cross border attack. that's the unusual thing about this. rocket attacks between israel and gaza, rocket wars 2021, hadas gold reported during the 11 day period there was 5,

. >> former state department middle east negotiator aaron david miller.hant to start with questions and expansion of this war. israel is now expanding evacuation orders near the lebanese border. they said hezbollah has killed civilians and soldiers. "new york times" reports that the biden administration is urging israel not to launch a large-scale attack against hezbollah. do you think that lasts? that restraint? >> you know, it really depends, i think, with an israel and hezbollah calculation. hezbollah, i think, will feel increasing pressure to involve itself in this if israelis move into gaza with an intent to destroy hamas. they can't let the axis resistance only be comprised of shia members. they need that sunni component. hamas is important to them. i think hezbollah understands that if they get involved in a major conflict with israel, which could involve the united states, we have almost 200 aircraft on those carrier strike groups in eastern med, are likely to suffer a significant defeat and loss of much of their high-trajectory arsenal. i think t

aaron david miller, thank you for your insight. always appreciated. toss it back to victor and amara. >> thank you. see you in a minute. >>> other top story this morning, "friends" actor matthew perry has died at the age of 54. more on his life and career when we come back. just waiting for you, waiting to get you alone, because alone you lose to the disease. and now i finally feel okay and feel like i have got some strength. >> what does it mean to feel okay? >> it means that i have developed some safety nets around this, you know. for some reason, it's, obviously, because i was on "friends," more people will listen tadvantage of that. i have to help as many people as i can. >> this is just last year "friends" star matthew perry speaking about his struggles with addiction saying he felt okay now. he was found dead from an apparent drowning accident at his los angeles home last night. he was 54. according to "the l.a. times," no foul play is suspected, but the incident is still under investigation by the los angeles police department. >> perry's most

i want to return to aaron david miller, a former police negotiator for the state department. good to see you. we have heard that israeli troops are amassing at the gaza border. the next stage, prime minister benjamin netanyahu is saying, what does that mean? if israeli ground forces to go into northern gaza, what would they do for how long? >> based on what the israeli press spokes people are, and former intelligence military officials, it seems to me that given the context of the hamas terror surge and red, that the israelis appeared to want to change "the reality" in gaza, create a new political reality, pose hamas reality. and we are talking about eradication of hamas' military command. and that includes all command and control to destroy all market laboratories, destroyed ammunition, any technology that hamas is using and of course, the israelis have directly more than suggested that they are also out to removing the leadership. yeah, [indistinct] in particular, the hamas military chief through t the israeli trid to assassinate before. that is the aspiration. and do they

aaron david miller when you look at the complexity of the attack, it seems to indicate it would have required a lot of planting. how much do you estimate went into this when it went to cyber activity, and everything we saw play out saturday. >> clearly months, and if the reports are credible, the "wall street journal" is reporting today that hamas officials both in lebanon and outside the country met with irg officials and the iranians had a key role in directing this attack. i think juliette's right, but i would only add one point. this was a failure of imagination. 50 years ago this week, last week, i was in israel. i heard the sirens wail. there's an eerie reminiscence, strangeness about the magnitude of this intelligence failure, and just like in '73, the israelis underestimate the capacity of hamas to do this as an organized campaign. this was a military campaign, but in terms of its intentions, it was a massive terrorist assault against civilians. and i think to a large degree, the israelis never believed hamas would -- even though the israelis were familiar with tunnelling bot

aaron david miller, thank you so much for your insight. always very, very good. now, getting a sense of how americans feel about the war in israel. and the response to hamas' attacks. up next we'll discuss what they think of president biden's handling of the situation and what the u.s. needs to do on their end. that is ahead. >>> new cnn poll released today gives a read on how americans are feeling about what is going on in israel. overall, most see israel's military response to the attacks as justified. but the crisis, which is ongoing, is sparking debate among republican presidential candidates in the u.s. this morning in an interview on "state of the union" with jake tapper, nikki haley responded to ron desantis commanding on the fact that he believes that the u.s. should not accept refugees from gaza. >> you have to realize that whether we're talking about gaza st sgazans and palestinians, half the time when i was there they didn't want to be unq qder hama rule. they knew they were living a terrible life because of hamas. >> let's talk about it with republica

aaron david miller, thank you very much. we will have much more coming up on all of the breaking news we're following, the developing situation out of the middle east right now. coming up, we will take a closer look at the military ramifications. we'll be right back. >>> this just coming in. a new video, geo located, authenticed by cnn shows at least one israeli soldier has been taken by prisoner by hamas in gaza. a warning this video could be disturbing to some viewers, it was released and edited by hamas. it shows hamas militants yanking two israeli soldiers out of a disabled israeli tank. it is unclear from the video how the tank was disabled. but hamas has been utilizing drones to drop bombs on to israeli tanks. you can see one of the soldiers being kicked on the ground by the militants, a second soldier is being led away while another is on the ground. cnn does not know the current where-abouts or status of these three israeli soldiers. israeli defense forces are not commenting on hamas' claims that they have captured t

aaron david miller, what is your reaction to the israeli government telling one million people in gazave south? aaron: i think it is large and performed of -- largely performative. 24 hours is a completely unrealistic time. 24 days would be unrealistic. i think israelis feel obligated to do it. i think it creates a sense that they are expressing some concern for the civilian population in gaza. the last several days would seem just the opposite in terms of the airstrikes. it may be performative. it may be what is needed to be done before the launch of a ground operation. it will be unprecedented in scale and i expect proportionate to the use of force. geoff: andrew, how do you view it? andrew: i do not see a way in which the idf or even the best trained military on earth could do this without killing a lot of civilians. this in some ways, the terrain does play to idf advtages. they have great special operation forces, but this will require a ground assault and idf is comprised from early of conscripts, reservists. this will be exceptionally challenging for any military and the terrain

aaron david miller, as always, thank you. coverage of the war between israel and a mosque continues after a quick break. quick break. this is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. ♪ (♪♪) honey... honey... dayquil severe honey. powerful cold and flu symptom relief with a honey-licious taste. because life doesn't stop for a cold. dayquil honey, the daytime, coughing, aching, stuffy head, fever, honey-licious, power through your day, medicine. okay everyone, our mission is to provide complete, balanced nutrition for strength and energy. yay - woo hoo! ensure, with 27 vitamins and minerals, nutrients for immune health. and ensure complete with 30 grams of protein. (♪♪) it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david. connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals okay, great. j.p. morga

aaron david miller, thank you very much for coming to the show this morning. >> thank you, jonathan., as a ground invasion of gaza seems eminent by israeli forces, here in the united states the house of representatives remains without a leader. the latest on how this affects u.s. support for israel, ahead. stay with us, you're watching msnbc. stay with us, you're watchin msnbc. msnbc. when migraine strikes you're faced with a choice. ride it out with the tradeoffs of treating? or push through the pain and symptoms? with ubrelvy, there's another option. one dose works fast to eliminate migraine pain treat it anytime, anywhere. without worrying where you are or if it's too late. do not take with strong cyp3a4 inhibitors. allergic reactions to ubrelvy can happen. most common side effects were nausea and sleepiness. migraine pain relief starts with u. ask about ubrelvy. learn how abbvie could help you save. ugh, i'll deal with this tomorrow. you won't. it's ripe in here. my eyes are watering. look how crusty this is. ugh, it's just too much. not with this. good advice. when stains and od

>> look, far be it for me to come out after aaron david miller and talk about negotiations. he knows about these things really well. i will say this. ever since the day, the days where there were negotiations between israelis and palestinians, there were not the hard-liners that there are now. benjamin union who is the most hard-line president in israeli history. he is the most far-right presidents in israeli history. he struggles with a very tenuous coalition. although, members of other parties have offered to join a coalition unity government to deal with this problem. hamas is also a very hard-line group. they are not recognized by most governments around the world. so, there aren't these channels of communication. if you want to get to hamas to talk to them, you have to go through either the iranians, within the u.s. does not have any meaningful relationships, or the countries. now, the good thing, u.s. is a very strong relationship with the countries. they have strong relations with the gazans. there is a possibility. if i were a guessing man, i would say we do know tha

martin fletcher and aaron david miller thank you for being with us this llmorning. >>> this morning,t is wrapping upni security across the u.s. after several anti-semitic attacks t online. i want to bring in nbc news correspondent stephanie gosk at theen temple emanuel in new yor city. and former fbi assistant director for counterintelligence, frank figliuzzi. stephanie, how are we seeing law enforcement ramp up protection against jewish communities herem >> reporter: jose, we have seen it all week. we have seen the patrols, outside of synagogues like this oneag and other jewish location. we also knowsh today there are number of private schools that haveiv closed or gone remote ju out of an abundance of caution. there have been protests and counterprotests here ines new yk city. there has been a large police presence. there have been a couple of scuffles that have broken out, but nothing kesignificant. also, there is a lot going on behind the scenes. i spokehe to terry monahan, the former police chief for new york, they said they haven't seen aey security risk like thi since 9/11. th

middle east project and aaron david miller, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. daniel, i'll start with you. we have been saying this for now for several days, eminent. you just tell my colleague they're saying it. but i juxtapose that with what is happening beyond israel's borders. that release of two american hostages, the delivery of not enough aid but nonetheless aid into gaza today. and this caro peace summit. is there any reason to believe that maybe something is happening behind the scenes? not so transparently that could perhaps delay this? >> i think -- should not be overly focused on whether or not they will be a ground invasion because we just saw the heartbreaking scenes of palestinian family and gaza, on top of the heartbreaking scenes of what happened on october 7th. but every day, there is this terrible loss and destruction now in gaza. and that's going on without a crime invasion. in fact, a grant invasion my will complicate israel's military mission. and lead to is really losses. the way i think the ground invasion could really matter is,

aaron david miller, a seasoned former state department official -- went on record in 2005 saying thestates did not act n impartial mediator, quote, for far too long many american officials involved in arab israeli peacemaking, myself included, have acted as israel's attorney, catering and coordinating with the israelis, at the expense of successful peace negotiations, and quote. recently, mueller looked to the future, and outlined the potential solutions involving multiple stake hope, not limited to the united states, his approach includes the united nations overseeing transnational lectures for palestinian leadership, a process that has been a neglected for over a decade -- solidify their power. additionally, he suspected that saudi arabia should offer significant financial support for reconstruction efforts, while also urging the european union to take on a more active role in advocating for palestinians. this is deeply complex. i want to welcome hush rowley to the show, she's a former official spokesperson for the palestinian delegation to the mid east peace process. she was the f

much let's bring in middle east analyst aaron david miller, a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment- it's great to see you again, aaron. it's a lot to discuss today. we will start with that press conference from the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. in a line that stood out to me he called this, quote, this war, the second war, israel's second independence, second war of independence. help us impact unpack what that means. will this generally fall as israel's second independents? to try to get rid of hamas once and for all? or is he saying, what is at stake here in terms of the fight for israel? of course, israel's war of independence conjures up a completely different feeling for the palestinians and the memories of the nakba. >> and by the way the prime minister quoted shakespeare as well. sort of elevating troops, to be or not to, be in reference to a state -- choice. to exist, or not to exist. so, clearly, the prime minister's frame is an existential one. and there's no doubt that it follows his language, his penchant for drama, and also the conviction, i think, that wh

aaron david miller, thank you so much, sir.ur, another live hour of this brutal attack. new air strikes over gaza seen tonight. we are back right after this. ter this ♪ tourists tourists that turn into scientists. tourists taking photos that are analyzed by ai. so researchers can help life underwater flourish. ♪ (vo) sure you can get data everywhere but do you have to use it all the time? so researchers can help life underwater flourish. that's not really you. with tracfone, you get great coverage all on nationwide 5g. for a lot less. plans start at $15 a month no-contract. tracfone. frustrated by skin tags? dr. scholl's has the breakthrough you've been waiting for. the first fda-cleared at-home skin tag remover clinically proven to remove skin tags safely in as little as one treatment. this october 10th and 11th, prime big deal days give prime members exclusive access to two days of big savings. which means, you're kind of a big deal. prime big deal days, october 10th and 11th. only for prime members. it's not just designed to

. >>> with us now to continue our conversation is aaron david miller, he served as a negotiator and seniordviser for arab israeli negotiations at the state department. he helped formulate u.s. policy on the middle east and the arab israeli peace and he's now a senior fellow in the american state craft program at the carnegie endowment for international peace. you offer so much wisdom on this region. thank you for joining us. what do you make of this news now that netanyahu and an opposition leader in israel have formed a unity government? >> it is the first piece of good news that i heard since saturday. during hamas' terror rampage in southern israel. it is good news because it is going to serve as a check on the more extremist ministers in netanyahu's government. it is good news because you're bringing in benny ganz, and you'll get some serious military expertise. and perhaps even a moderating constraining rule with respect to israeli policies toward the west bank. and it is good news because the government, according to its terms, the new government, when it is officially formed, will n

joining me now aaron david miller.r international peace and a former arab-israeli negotiator for the u.s. state department. welcome. your analysis from what you heard there from our correspondent matt bradley. the fact that he says that there is a delicate dance underway, armageddon would be a least upon israel if they were to strike hezbollah. there was so much right now to keep a track of. what are your thoughts on the likelihood of this expanding into a broader regional conflict? >> first of, all thank you for having me. look, escalation is a real problem. so far over the last several days, although it is heated up, both israel and hezbollah appear to be observing the sort of rules of the game. they are governed with very uneasy status quo since the last major engagement in the summer of 2006. i think israel does not want to engage. there is some concern that the israelis were about to launch a strike, and the administration delivered some pretty tough messages to restrain and contain them. hezbollah does not went i

aaron david miller, senior fellow for the carnegie endowment it for international peace, joins me right we'll be right back. l be right back. everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. >> welcome back. more on israel beginning what is called the next phase of this war against hamas. i want to bring in iran david miller, for the international piece to talk more about this. thank you for joining us on this. i know you took a listen to the press conference in the last hour with postponed and benjamin netanyahu, and talk me through first what kind of stood out to you and what you heard from him. >> yeah. a couple of things, number one, two references by the prime minister to the f

aaron david miller, thank you very much.squeeze in some porting -- reporting before we get to john curry. speaking of john kirby, at the white house press briefing about an hour and a half ago, he pointed the finger at iran. he said iran is actively instigating a lot of this what can you tell us about what you are hearing of iran regarding what we have been covering now? >> reporter: iran's foreign ministers have been shuttling around the region. he has been meeting hamas leaders, hezbollah leaders and proxy groups under the patronage in the area. he keeps issuing threats, warnings and stinging ultimatums. not just to israel but to the u.s. as well. just today, he said i warned the u.s. and its proxy, israel, that if they don't i merely stop these crimes in gaza against humanity, anything is possible. at any moment and the region will go out of control. he added that the u.s. military support for israel was evidence of an ongoing conflict in gaza. that israel was a u.s. proxy and they were doing this on behalf of the u.s. in

aaron david miller, thank you very much for all of that. you are truly incredible. you as well. new drone footage show what is was left after hamas militants slaughtered hundreds at a dance festival. lines of abandoned cars, some charred through, others crashed into each other as people tried to fl. more than 3,000 were there and israeli officials say at least 260 of them were killed. many at close range. joining us now is process gastor who was at that festival when hamas attacked. thank you. i mean, just looking at the images and the videos of the people running and fleeing and everything that we've seen, it sends chills up my spine. tell me what it is like to be there and how you got out. >> it was a nightmare for all of us. once it started, once the bombardment started, after five minutes i managed to find a driver and we got the car and drove out as fast as possible. so opposed to everyone else that went right when they venue, i drove the other way and for this i say i was saved because this way was steer clear. i drove as fast as i can until i got to my other

of course, aaron david miller, thank you so much i important point. rship is what holds _ mexico border. american leadership is what holds the _ mexico border. american leadership is what holds the world _ mexico border. american leadership is what holds the world together. i is what holds the world together. american alliances are what keep us, america, say. american values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with. to put all that at risk if we walk away from ukraine, we turn our backs on israel, isjust not from ukraine, we turn our backs on israel, is just not worth it. from ukraine, we turn our backs on israel, isjust not worth it. that's why tomorrow i'm going to send to congress and urgent budget request to fund america's national security needs to support our critical partners, including israel and ukraine. ., partners, including israel and ukraine. . , , ., ukraine. there are signs that israel is read in: ukraine. there are signs that israel is readying itself _ ukraine. there are signs that israel is readying itself for _

live now to washington — where we can speak to aaron david miller, a senior fellow at the carnegie endowmentate department official and adviser on arab—israeli negotiations to both republican and democratic administrations. thank you very much for being back on newsday. good to have you. diplomatic efforts have been stepped up, we have heard from the un, eu members have called for pauses to allow humanitarian aid into gaza — is all of this going to have any impact on how israel is going ahead? i don't think so. i think what is going to affect israeli decision—making are several constraints. the most important of which is their own indecision now with respect to the ambitious mass at their objectives. israeli officials for weeks now have been talking about ending hamas's existence in gaza, ensuring that it is no longer sovereign there with no capacity to govern. the task at hand is a brutal and bloodied one. so it is a brutal and bloodied one. so it is the nature of the objective, number one, and then there is ambivalence, i think amanda think there is been an evolving us position with respec

. >> joining me now, aaron david miller, former state department middle east negotiator and senior fellow with the endowment. always good to see you, sir. what is your read into the release of the two u.s. ha hostages? would hamas have released them without a deal? >> first of all, thanks for having me. we're in a long, dark tunnel. this is the first light. i'm keeping my expectations pretty low. i think the motivation for the release had to do with pressure on one hand and propaganda on the other. there's a statement from cutter which talks about -- seemed very upbeat -- i want negotiations to try to free the hostages, and to use their words, deescalate tensions. the external leadership has been funding hamas to the tune of anywhere from 3 to $10 million a month, subsidizing in gaza object assumption that hamas was primarily interested in governing and stabilizing the situation in gaza. that's what we're preparing for, but it's certainly not what we saw on october 7th. but it's also propaganda. i mean, it's cruel manipulation dribbling out the hostages, and as you'll know, they released

aaron david miller — a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, focusing on usgn policy — told us that no—one would have predicted the scale of these attacks. anyone who would admit i told you so or that they had information this was coming is simply not being honest. the fact is this was a failure of imagination on the part of the israelis. much as �*73 was a failure of imagination. i do not think israeli planners believed hamas would dare undertake such a bold strategy. and i think it came at a time when in fact the israelis, benjamin netanyahu in particular, was trying to increase the number of palestinians working in israel to largely keep gaza quiet as he pursued his larger objective which is an israeli/syrian normalisation agrteement. so i think a lot of this factored into this situation. the key question in my mind now is whether or not the conventional wisdom that israel would never launch a major ground incursion, land, sea and air, in order to eradicate hamas and its military leadership and essentially create a new set of circumstances in gaza that wou

earlier i spoke with aaron david miller, a seniorfellow at the carnegie endowment for international peaceisraeli negotiations to both republican and democratic administrations. i asked him whether the stepping up of diplomatic efforts from is going to have an impact on how israel goes ahead. i think what is going to affect israeli decision—making are several constraints. the most important of which is their own indecision now with respect to the ambitious of their objectives. israeli officials for weeks now have been talking about ending hamas's existence in gaza, ensuring that it is no longer sovereign there. with no capacity to govern. the task at hand is a brutal and bloodied one, so it's the nature of the objective and then there is ambivalence, i think, objective and then there is ambivalence, ithink, and i think there's been an evolving us position with respect to this great support from a very pro—israeli american president, but the americans have been asking very tough questions. they are also adding the issue of hostages. they've bought time and space from the israelis to allow n

aaron david miller — a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, focusing on us policy — told us that no—one would have predicted the scale of these attacks. anyone who would admit i told you so or that they had information this was coming is simply not being honest. the fact is this was a failure of imagination on the part of the israelis. much as �*73 was a failure of imagination. i do not think israeli planners believed hamas would dare undertake such a bold strategy. and i think it came at a time when in fact the israelis, benjamin netanyahu in particular, was trying to increase the number of palestinians working in israel to largely keep gaza quiet as he pursued his larger objective which is an israeli/syrian normalisation agrteement. so i think a lot of this factored into this situation. the key question in my mind now is whether or not the conventional wisdom that israel would never launch a major ground incursion, land, sea and air, in order to eradicate hamas and its military leadership and essentially create a new set of circumstances in gaza that would

live now to aaron david miller, a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, focusing foreign policy. thank you for being with us tonight. to begin with, your reaction to what we have witnessed today? it's stunning, tragic and extraordinary. i was there 50 years ago yesterday and i heard the sirens wailing, the combined egyptian and syrian war against israel. i had that strange eerie feeling today. largely on the intelligence side. it's hard to compare 73 to what's happened here. a strategy and plan, they wanted to inflict significant defeat on israel to pave the way for a diplomatic solution which ultimately happen, there was a peace treaty. hamas�*s objectives now are unclear. to frustrate the prospect of an israeli saudi deal, and to demonstrate that hamas is capable and powerful. and can randomly and do indiscriminately kill israeli civilians. all of this is wrapped in a judgment element. inaudible. inaudible. i want to come back to something you said, the fact you were there 50 years ago, and with all of your experience in the region, and you referenced the yom ki

aaron david miller, we will leave it there. thank you. >> senior white house reporter has an update on what we can expect. kevin? >> certainly would you expect to hear from the president and i am told by multiple people that the president is expected to speak with his israeli counterpart benjamin netanyahu soon. we have heard from multiple officials expressing concern over this violence in israel. we heard from a national security council's oaks person saying the u.s. condemns the unprovoked attacked. she goes on to say there is never any justification for terrorism and we stand firmly with the government and extend our condolences for these israeli lives lost in these attacks and they do say the american national security visor did speak with his counterpart. he also heard from the top american diplomat in israel, the acting ambassador. she said she was sickened by the images of dead and wounded civilians and she said she was in contact with her counterparts as well but this comes at a extremely sensitive moment. president bid

lets get more analysis from aaron david miller, a former us state department official and adviser on thank you very much for coming on the programme. thank you very much for coming on the programme-— thank you very much for coming on the programme. thank you very much for havin: the programme. thank you very much for having me- — the programme. thank you very much for having me. what _ the programme. thank you very much for having me. what is _ the programme. thank you very much for having me. what is your _ the programme. thank you very much for having me. what is your analysis i for having me. what is your analysis of what we — for having me. what is your analysis of what we are _ for having me. what is your analysis of what we are witnessing _ for having me. what is your analysis of what we are witnessing right - for having me. what is your analysisl of what we are witnessing right now? i think it is really opaque. i have heard one report indicating that this is a fairly large phase one operation, thousands of israeli forces operating in the northern gaza strip, intensive air stri

let's speak to aaron david miller, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace andns. thank you so much for coming on the programme. what are your immediate thoughts as we head into the night now? as we can still see, the skyline above guards are still the top. skyline above guards are still the to . _ ., .. “ skyline above guards are still the to, skyline above guards are still the to. top. look, we can measure their sunday today. — top. look, we can measure their sunday today, but _ top. look, we can measure their sunday today, but i _ top. look, we can measure their sunday today, but i suspect - top. look, we can measure their sunday today, but i suspect the | top. look, we can measure their- sunday today, but i suspect the more accurate timing is probably weeks or even months. what we are seeing here is a transformative event that goes beyond any immediate security challenge that they have faced. and i suspect, although i am not predicting it imminently, the israelis will have to change 20 years of risk aversion where it comes to gaza that is containment, carrot

aaron david miller, you're there in washington, former state department middle east negotiator. what was your reaction? >> i thought the prime minister framed this in very, very dire terms. two references to the second war of independence, another reference to winning the freedom, presumably from a possibility of other attacks by hamas. i thought the statement that carried interest for me, he talked about the fact that the only clock was the operational clock. and that while we were listen to, quote, our friend, unquote, we will do what is right for and by us. and i think that was an effort to sort of navigate between the advice that the administration is providing and israeli goals and objectives. the only clock is the operational clock means basically that israelis won't be rushed and this is going to be a war of phases, with no single necessarily winning phase, but a collection of phases. he reaffirmed it again, to destroy hamas' capacity to govern and its military capabilities. >> good point. they all basically said the same thing, this is going to be a long war. je jeremy d

haidi: aaron david miller, we appreciate your time.e is a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. let's get you to annabelle. annabelle: a look at some initial reaction through some of these weekend events here. big moves in oil already. the story in currencies, still firmness in the japanese yen. that's a safe haven play. also dollar strength is coming through. you can see the euro, pound, weakening. the aussie dollar down .5%. in equities we saw a selloff coming through middle eastern markets, as can be expected. israeli stocks really bearing the brunt of the losses. the biggest loss for the israeli benchmark here, a big drop of more than 30 years, already a stock market under pressure given the stability and security issues ongoing in israel. in terms of market reaction in asia let's change now because we have a number of clodr markets given the wild weather we are facing in this the. it is something that could take a lot of liquidity out of the market closures. kiwi stocks already online to the downside. ot

aaron david miller for us. sara?we've been just talking about this, and a classified briefing for house members just finished minutes ago to get the latest on what is happening in israel. one of the congressmen in the room is jared moskowitz and is on the house foreign affairs committee. we have heard one striking thing that has come out of the briefing that the u.s. has collected specific intelligence that really does cast doubt that iran was directly involved in the surprise attack by hamas on israel. can you give us and our viewers any sense of how you understood how the intelligence agencies came to that initial conclusion? >> yeah. thanks for having me. obviously, i'm not going to talk about classified information, but what i would say is that's being slightly misinterpreted. what i will say is that is still an ongoing process. they were clear about that that they are still gathering intelligence on that matter, but that there's no initial intelligence that shows that. before we jump conclusions that iran was no

. >> aaron david miller, who has worked for decades on this, you know him well, on iseli peace ps pointedhe end, it has suited -- at least benjamin netanyahu for a while, to have disconnected hamas and a palestinian authority, it's a dividing conquerable. at this point, the former negotiating partners of israel, in that region of the world, the palestinian authority, is looking like a better bet. is there some discussion, do you think, about either bringing. -- >> re-empowering the authority, or finding a negotiating party for negotiating peace? yes. i'm sure that has to be a part of the discussion in the long term decision, my view on this, ali is that you've had hamas entrenched in the gaza strip. part because the israelis have not engaged in significant talks that would lead to developing state. partly, because it's become a corrupt organization led by very old man. it's left this huge vacuum. i think hamas is trying to fill that vacuum with its actions. i think right now the message the region has to be, if you don't like hamas, and none of those arab leaders have -- feelings the symp

there's a third camp, and i heard this a few times from people who say this will be, in fact, aaron david miller said it to katie tur earlier. he's one of the best known former negotiators for america on this issue. he said this is going to be the end of netanyahu. other than the fact the worst terror attack in the history of israel happened on his watch, this idea that he is the strongest leader of israel is now over. but the flaws in how he has done this are going to cause israelis to say, like palestinians have said of their leaders, you're not solving our problems for us. they're going to cause israelis to perhaps say the same thing. it's not a united front in israel as it relates to benjamin netanyahu. >> i would love to talk to you more. stay safe. always appreciate you, my friend. thank you very much. >>> and coming up, a mother's nightmare. hanine ricardo whose daughter has been missing received a devastating news today that her daughter had been killed in that massacre. she joins me next. t help reachis with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a digital money coach in the chase mobile® app. use it

aaron david miller, hallie server, thank you as well. >>> coming up, we'll talk about the hostage crisis. i'll speak with an american in israel whose family was kidnapped and taken to gaza. in just 60 seconds we'll be right back. kwleer clear allergic reactions to ubrelvy can happen. most common side effects were nausea and sleepiness. ask about ubrelvy. the new subway mvp rewards earns you points when you order. -superbowl mvps really do get all the perks? i'm talking about subway mvp. it's a way bigger deal. do you get a trophy for that? i wish. get rewarded like an mvp. . >>> with israel now dealing with a hostage crisis in gaza, a new video shows a 12-year-old taken by militants over the weekend. his sister confirmed to nbc news he was kidnappedlo with other members of his family. the family members range from 12-80 years old. the family says they were taken to gaza. joining me is their relative abby, living in israel for the last eight years. abby, first of all, how are you holding up, and are you in a safe place? >> we're safe right now. thank you so much for having me on. i apprec

. >> aaron david miller, thank you so much. the we appreciate you taking the time to talk to us today. >>> tensions are rising along the israel lebanon border as hezbollah has said to attack the israeli border. you're watching chris jansing reports only on msnbc. jansing reports only on msnbc. k time? -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -when you can take this phone, you'll be ready. -make the unnecessary, unnecessary. let your employees do their own payroll. (man) mm, hey, honey. looks like my to-do list grew. "paint the bathroom, give baxter a bath, get life insurance," hm. i have a few minutes. i can do that now. oh, that fast? remember that colonial penn ad? i called and i got information. they sent the simple form i need to apply. all i do is fill it out and send it back. well, that sounds too easy! (man) give a little information, check a few boxes, sign my name, done. they don't ask about your health? (man) no health questions. -physical exam? -don't need one. it's colonial penn guaranteed acceptance whol