. - we had a surprising number coming in with that adp number: 200,000 jobs added to payrolls in the month of july. what does that mean for the jobs number on friday? - you know, the jobs numbers have been trending up. i think the market wants good but not great so that the fed doesn't have to stop tapering. - let's do some stock talking now. what about visa and mastercard and some of these credit card companies coming in with earnings? - they lost a really obscure court case yesterday, and they got spanked for it. visa had the worst day it's had in over two years. mastercard gave away a 20+ point gain to barely be up. american express took a couple of points. i don't think there's going to be a lot of follow-through, because this was just a first meeting, and there's probably going to be lots of appeals and stuff like that. but, take note: if you like those credit card companies, you were given an excellent chance to step in yesterday. - so if the swipe fee does not happen here, then are you feeling as though there will be a retracement in these stocks eventually? - if that swipe fe

so, i think right now we're going to be around that 200 range, which was the adp number. i think that's fair. but let's just see if that comes through. and then gdp, we're not doing too well there. - what is the stock market, though, telling us about the economy? - the stock market's had a dovish fed speak a couple days ago. yesterday, draghi was also seen as dovish. that's given a boost to the market with "accomodation." then we've had a couple things trickle across the tapes that haven't been as bad as expected, or slightly better than expected, and that's just been enough rocket fuel to get this market on fire. - what could put pressure on the market? - what would put pressure on the market right now is you have to be careful about saying a really bad jobs number, because a really bad jobs number could say, "hey, i thought there was going to be more accomodation." but i think the market has really started to focus on numbers that are actually good for the market verses being bad for the market, so, i'm going to say a disappointing jobs number tomorrow will kind of thro

we had a strong adp report. i'm not convinced on the economy. i'm looking for a stronger employment number. >> you look at this and the signs and try too figure out what the fed is reading, they seem to be focused on the jobs picture too. do you think this is making the case for them to taper as early as september? >> i don't know. they're focused on the job market. we had a weak revision to gdp. look at the new gdp profile, the dese desell ration is much more pronounced than it was. they kicked up growth. the quarter was stronger than expected, the desell ration on year on year growth rate is a lot more severe. if you're the fed and looking at job growth, we have 196,000 jobs over the last 12 months and the previous 12 months. the fed keeps talking about jobs accelerating. over what time horizon? jobs have been steady. now gdp is decelerating, you can't expect that job growth to continue if the economy is deted decelerating. they did something very strange by saying their view, their expectation are different. they said now it is their view for

the adp number is plus or minus 50. if you have strong income growth, in other words the wages number is up, if the hours number is up, that would be something i would be more excited about than i am with my baseline of 200. >> thank you very much. >> my pleasure. >> you guys must know, the market is reacting positively in the face of pretty good economic data. the ism blowout characterized by some people as such. that would lead one to believe the market can handle the taper. >> good news has become good news again. you have that exactly right. i got to tell you, if you choose to blow out of your holdings because we print 220,000 jobs tomorrow, that's your prerogative. i have to tell you, i don't think that's the way the market is behaving any longer. i think good news can now be good news again and that's a positive development. >> market is telling you to stay in by virtue of its performance today. >> market is also digesting an oil price that's $107.50. we were told at 100 bucks take profit there, there would be con

auto sales at 15.7 million expected, the adp jobs report to forecast the government jobs, 170,000 jobs created in august and the government jobs report 173,000 expected for the month of august with the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.4%. on top of that, we'll have five public appearances from four fed presidents, two of them is the september 17th, 18th meeting. it could be enough to prompt the threat to stimulate the economy, but the economy has to show a pickup from here. consumer spending in july rose less than expected, getting the third quarter off to a weak start. the key, listen fed officials and what think think of the economic reports and if they lean towards tapering or not. ben bernanke hasn't made a major speech orrn the economy since m july. >> joe, always good to see you. >> always good to see you, too. >> tough month for august, but september is typically the worst month for the stock market. do you expect another tough month for the market? >> i'm expecting a busy month for the market, and it will start off with a bang. a short week next week but very, very filled with

weekly jobless claims falling to a 5.5 year low and private sectors adding jobs last month according to adp, even the face of the layoffs is slowing down. just under 38,000 down 4.2% according to challenger gray and christmas. manufacturing accounts for 12% of the economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years. fueled by demand for new autos and materials needed for the housing recovery. for traders and market watchers, the sweet spot jobs number is the consensus forecast of around 185,000 jobs added to july payroll. >> we need to see at least, if not better, if we want to continue to believe that the economy, in fact, has rounded that corner, that we're moving in the right direction and, you know, everything the government tells us is happening is in fact happening. >> reporter: a july jobs number north of 220,000 would be viewed by markets as a green light for the fed to move up the timetable for tapering the economic stimulus. >> it's going to give another reason for people to speculate and ben bernanke to say we're independently, we're creating the jobs and look at the pace and it wi

we saw ism up to a two-year high, good adp numbers. what is the strength of the economy and how will that affect the employment report? >> i think it is robust at the moment. we have seen a strong trend in housing, very strong for the last couple of months. car sales were quite good. and the ism was terrific, bouncing back from a weak month. so i think the underlying trend is robust and impressive given the backup we saw in interest rates across the yield curve. if anything, we might get a surprise to the upside. the whisper numbers are higher than the consensus, but the whisper of 200, we could go above that. one has to be cautious because the data often gets revised so much. >> do you think we're getting more relaxed? we come to terms -- investors come to terms with tapering. we're getting strength of data, and despite what the fed minutes suggest, there will be a view that they will start tapering in september. >> yes. we saw that with yields yesterday. yields backing up as a reflection of that sooner tapering. it may well be there

that and with the adp numbers that started turning people's heads around. numbers, i home you heard from phil, best july since 2006, we'll get the rest of the numbers today. domestic auto sales should be at 5.72 million the best since september, 2005. the light truck are on fire. october 2007 probably the last time we saw these kind of numbers, 6.7 million, 6.8 million. big numbers in oil and construction that's what's driving the sales of the truck industry overall. do you know what i'm not happy about today? exxon, the big miss there and it was largely in the downstream earnings area. the big miss has just hurt the s&p overall earnings. exxon is the biggest company out there and the big miss, earnings in the s&p at 5% this morning, thanks to exxonmobil, earnings for the overall s&p are now down to 4.3% that's a big move to the downside. we were moving up here, so it's kind of knocked things down. but there is some very good news out here. there was a new zone discovered in the permian, that's the big texas area for oil and natural gas that apparently was

. >> it looks like the adp numbers came on yes.my is slow, but it appears to be getting better. >> it is not frozen. you do not want it too hot. it will increase inflation. gdp is going to continue to add 01 and yesterday's number was surprisingly stronger than what we had expected. there is a lot of consumption. as a nation, as we consume our economy is working. >> we had worries about europe because of their gains. they were down 1%. at least we are growing. are we worried about your? >> know. both york and china are manufacturing more than expected. any number over 50 is growing anything under 50 is contracting. york is doing things very slowly. china is also slowing down. they only had 7 1/2% growth. >> i am. most analysts are side ways. >> we have 18 percent this year. if i could get this every year and be done by july and take the next year off that would be great. the s&p 500 is expensive, they need more sales, more jobs. otherwise, people are fearful. warren buffett's stated that you should be fearful when people are being

i think we were the first on "squawk" to peg back the adp report versus the 50 and older.- i'm still reporting this city, there is no good evidence -- that people may stop tear hiring of 49. i heard last night this idea that you can take a full-time worker, create two part-time workers and avoid the, whatever it is, some of the costs of obamacare. that troubles me. again, i'm not seeing evidence in the data yet. there is some notion, looking at the adp data that 50-plus have slightly lower growth than 0 to 49 of the past several months. not statistically huge, something worth monitoring t. anecdote alda that is how you might see it. you might see it part time for economic reasons. john, you are also, other than what you check here. you are also anecdotally talking to people and employers. what are you hearing will? is it possible they are limiting their hiring if you have 49 employees? is it possible they're splitting up part-time jobs to avoid some of the mandates? >> yeah, i think probably not yet, but going forward, companies that are near that line most certainly will

yesterday's adp data added 200,000 private jobs and backs up those estimates.xt guest is not so optimistic with his estimate. get this, 23,000 jobs. wow. so here is david sanchi and we also bring in global strategies bob cinch, who has a completely different view. now, david, 23,000 jobs. i got to hear the rational for this. >> okay. first of all, larry, we're not in the business of predicting with they will report. i will have to say the bls tomorrow will probably report an estimate of 150, 175,000 jobs. we use real time income tax collections to estimate employment change. every day across the country employers submit income and employment taxes to the treasury that are withheld from their employee's paychecks and the treasury reports that data each day on its web site and we analyze that data to make our employment estimate. now, our estimate is only 23,000 for the month. the reason for that is we saw a sharp slowdown in withholdings growth late in the month. the bls establishment survey will not pick that you showdown because the reference week for july is

the stock market is not only not falling apart, just like the adp number the other day, interest rates up, stocks holding it in. >> thanks, guys. we'll see you a little later. ty, back to you. >>> sales from the u.s. car makers double digit gains in july from the same period a year ago. toyota in the top spot, 16.5% gain followed by general motors up 16.3, ford, chrysler, nissan. let's check in with cnbc's phil labeau, our car guy. phil? >> eric, i know you're joining us from detroit. a quick question regarding the sales for you guys, up more than 11%. but when you take a look at where trucks were, the real engine of your growth. are you seeing strength in one particular area of truck sales around the country, or is it pretty much across the board? >> it's pretty much across the board, phil. we are seeing some strength in some of the hotter housing markets, such as in california, new york and places like miami, but we're seeing truck strength really across the board. there really aren't any regions across the country that are down on trucks right now. >> while your truck sales were up

we have seen unemployment claims fall over the past couple of weeks to the lowest level in years and adpr jobs so weaker than expected although that dogs give the federal reserve more -- that does give the federal fer more cover in its monthly bond purchase program. consumer spending in june was up a .5% from the prior month. that was the strongest gain in four months. however, incomes grew at a slightly weaker peace after .3% and gas prices which were quite a bit higher led to a big chunk of that overall gain. earnings playing a big role today including a couple of bay area firms chevron and linkedin. chevron's profit was down 26% from a year earlier but it still made $5.3 billion revenue also down 8% but that did top expectations. and linkedin another social media firm doing very well after its earnings expectations were good its profit up 146%. market pulling back after setting new records for the dow and s&p yesterday. dow down 66. nasdaq down 11. s&p down 5. chevron down 2%. linkedin right now up by 7.5%. back to you. >> thank you, jason brooks. >>> another look now what the public

the adp report on wednesday came out stronger than expected, rates are higher, stocks are up. the ism, stocks are up, rates are higher. we have a trend. and what about these? if that happens there, it will indicate the stocks are comfortable with higher interest rates. we're at a very important point in the stock market right now. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much. we agree, and remember, that big jobs number is out tomorrow. should be a big day to cap off a big week. perhaps no group is as hot as tech. who has been the hottest of the hot? you're looking at the three best performers in the nasdaq 100. tesla, netflix and micron technology, incredible runs for all. let's find out if one, all or none of these still deserve your money. joining us now, barton crockett, drex ler hamilton, we're going boom, boom, boom. andrea, let's start with you on tesla. why is the stock up nearly 3% at home still good for our viewers to invest in? >> i think it's just a shift. people stopped asking what could go wrong with tesla and they started to ask, what could go right? >> what could

adp numbers stronger than expected. rates are higher. numbers are up. rates are higher, this market was up. how about the jobs report? longer than expected. rates get higher an market holds up. if that happens, you are definitely having people say, yes, we can handle higher rates. we will see what goes on here. meantime, anything cyclical had an outstanding day. consumer discretionary. financials, you everything up better than 1%. technology and energy in this group. if it wasn't for exxonmobil which broke my heart this morning p. huge miss here. they lowered buy back. people are not happy about that. royal dutch shell had a similar problem and i will make this very easy for everybody to understand. big oil has got a big problem. they can't really grow any more. supplies are harder to get at. exxon is about 6% of its play every year. they have to find 250,000 barrels of oil every year and it is harder and harder to get. production is declining and it is harder to replace. that's the big issue. maria, very big day for the stock market. 8:30. a lot of eye

we got a private payroll estimate earlier in the week from adp which processes payroll reports for companiesround the country saying the private sector created 200,000 jobs. gdp stronger than expected this week and jobless claims dropped yesterday to a five-year low. this number is expected to be revived. manufacturing data was more than expected. it's still not quite strong enough to do what we need to do which is get the real unemployment rate down in a meaningful way that doesn't necessarily see that number drop. >> jared, let's talk more about that and pivot off what ron is saying. obviously, there is a trend that we have been watching and as we look at that trend with the unemployment rate going down, the steady decline since january. ron makes this great point that the economy is still somewhat anemic and what does this mean for the obama administration as we see that is the president's main agenda by going to the hill this week and talking to both sides, the house and the senate side, about jobs, middle class, and growth? >> well, first of all, let me just say that i didn't find today

we get the adp number before that, too. we'll get some jobs information. we're also going to get some manufacturing data in the pmis as well. not only here but globally. i think that's going to be very important. because one of the parts of the economy that started to heel and started to see better results has been manufacturing. we have to see if that's going to continue. we get a lot of data points from china, europe data points have gotten better. those are the areas we've been putting money to work. again, we have some cash on hand to be buying some of the cyclicals and some defense that have gotten out of favor. that's our strategy. >> bill, are you there? >> ralph, last timing you were with us last week, you said you wouldn't be surprised to see the dow pull back into the 12,000 range later this year. a lot of gasps went out on that one. >> i just want to say something, bill, that my concern didn't start yesterday. it didn't start last week. my concern started about three or four months ago. tell my good friend peter to step back and look at weekly b

so, you know, take a company like an adp, for instance, which capitalizes on, you know, the hr need ofr to retire, and with all of the new regulations, it's constantly in the sweet spot for providing companies opportunities to be more efficie efficient, they're very consistent regardless of what interest rates are. and as interest rates rise because of all of the cash they hold, they get a kicker from that earnings stream off of the cash they hold for their clients. >> all right. we'll leave it there. gentlemen, thank you so much. enjoy your insights and appreciate your time tonight. we'll see you soon. >> you bet. >> thank you. >> have a good weekend, guys. >>> enjoy the sunshine on wall street while it's here. we've got some storms headed our way. our john harwood has the lowdown on the showdown coming up over the debt ceiling. it would be washington consumption at its worst. he'll also get you up to speed on larry summers' chances of becoming the next chairman of the federal reserve. keep it right here. we're back in two minutes' too many. ♪ like a dog without a bone 5-20 and the be

expected to decline but still well above 50 vehicle sales, right in line where they were the prior month, adpat 170 and jobs at 173 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.4% and five public appearances from four presidents, two of them voters at the september 17th and 18th meeting we'll all be following. data could be enough to prompt the fed to reduce its quantitative easing. second quarter was revised up more than expected 2.5%. some of that will come out the next quarter and consumer spending in july rose less than expected 0.1%. that is getting -- that's causing people to cause the third quarter is off to a weak start. the key will be to listen to fed officials and when they think of new economic reports and we await word from ben bernanke. his absence in jackson hole means he hasn't made a major speech on monetary policy or the economy since mid-july. guys, the latest data saw, the tracking surveys for the third quarter, 1.6%. back to you, mandy. >> who says though, sorry to jump in, that "street signs" doesn't overdeliver because we promise people three things and actually gave them

plus, if you're, say, you're a film student or a movie buff, a full hd screen, 1920, 10, adp resolutionook gorgeous on the screen. because you have a roomy keyboard the they throw in the numerical key pad the a math major, accounting major. great to have. you are not pecking at the top row. >> given me a whole lot of ex-trex ex- -- extras. >> $579 starting out. add the touch screen. you can do that or not. and you can also, you can add in like -- an extra, belttter processor, core i 3. bring it up to $630. >> still not so terrible. >> you have options. >> especially so much for the price. >> i like it. you can configure how the you want. get a customized computer. still a good value. >> tina trin, as usual. thank you for joining us. all the best tips. four great options for you heading back to school. there you have it. we'll be right back. ♪ it's back back back to school ♪ ♪ and you're going to hear me roar ♪ ♪ you're going to hear me roar >> nearly 1,200 firefighters battling the fierce beaver creek wildfire in central idaho. >> while 2,000 homes remain under evacuation in ketchum one

charles: is more dismal -- really -- we had a little bit of a trend that may be hopefully 200,000 may be adps week, may be a glimmer of hope here and there, it is shocking, the further you delve into of the more disappointing it becomes because you look at composition or quality of jobs, retail jobs, leisured jobs, hospitality. low-paid jobs. it is the harbinger of hiring in law future, free fall dramatically, even strongholds like health care, that is beginning to fall apart. if you look at the twins' they don't bode well for the near term. stuart: characterize it for monica crowley. >> 4.8 million people out of work for six months or longer, a staggering number. you mentioned labor participation rate at record lows for couple years under president obama. what is striking is if you use the same number of people in january of 2009 when this recession was in full blast when obama came into office you would have an unemployment rate today of 10.7%. if the labour participation rate -- charles: the mainstream media saying this is a good report rated 7.4% enabling for policiis and lying to the am

. >> adp number certainly lit that fire, so you can see with all of this going on, the expectations builte jobs number, unemployment numbers, granddaddy of them all of trading, that is what will without a doubt help maintain the direction we are in or correct it fairly dramatically. dagen: thank you so much. connell: more good stuff coming up including the way to save time while you are waiting for your flights in chicago. dagen: the shop until you fly details. right now, seven years of musicare tweeting.eamed.a qs and 900 million dollars are changing hands online. that's why the internet needs a new kind of server. one that's 80% smaller. uses 89% less energy. and costs 77% less. it's called hp moonshot. and it's giving the internet the room it needs to grow. this ...is going to be big. it's time to build a better enterprise. together. folks have suffered from frequent heartburn. but getting heartburn and then treating day after day is a thing of the past. block the ad with prilosec otc, and don't get heartburn in the first place. [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero

you can call -- i want to go to the national employment report, by adp, that talks about the rise over first six months of small businesses. employees of businesses, about one of 19 employees, there are 50,000 jobs created in the first six months of the year for businesses of 20 to 49 employees. how does that compare to the previous six months and the first six months of 2012? guest: i am not sure how to compare to the previous six months but it is one relatively -- but it is relatively weak. we have always seen significant more job growth in those sectors that we have seen coming out of this recession. that is clearly one of the primary reasons that the recovery has been so slow. we're not seeing the growth we have seen in the past. as time we had a recession, at this point small business it had added well over one million jobs , not tens of thousands of jobs. host: what is the difference? guest: confidence. when we do these polls, we ask current small businesses whether they plan to hire or not higher in the next two months or whether they have done that. but they always miss and wha

payroll processor adp borrowing by small businesses and sales of franchise have also climbed, indicatednesses are lilling to take on new expenses and risk. small businesses are ready to go. the small business borrowing is up 10% this year. sales of business franchises are up 4.3% this year. that on the front page of the u.s.a. today. also front page of washington post is a story about the campaign to become the next federal reserve chairman. as many of you know, larry summers is in the running as well as janet yelling. this story has the headline, allies of the fed candidates are waging a battle behind the scenes. president obama's long term advisors have been working to help summers what has become the hottest political campaign of 2013. the race to succeed ben bernanke. rarely has the appointment of a new fed chairman been accompanied by so much commotion. penetrating the political dead zone of mid-august. i wouldn't want larry summers to mow my yard senator pat roberts of kansas told an audience. becoming the first republican to announce he would oppose the nomination of the former t

the adp where they're looking for almost 190 on the private payrolls. 175 or so is the outlook for jobsg up and a whole bunch of other stuff. durable goods about that so pretty decisive for the federal reserve. >> you mentioned that you focus on the spending side. and the up in numbers we got were stronger on the consumer side. we know durables is usually a pretty volatile number.stronger. we know durables is usually a pretty volatile number. where do you think we'll finish the year for real consumer spending? >> we've as well be running 2%. the strange thing about consumer spending is they're saying right now that we're not spending a lot on services, haircuts, vacations. i'm still getting my hair cut. well, you know, i'm still getting my hair cut, taking vacations. consumer spending was very normal, like 3% plus. and they came through two months ago and said, no, people aren't spending on services. so i don't know what that was about. i would think something like 2% again. the run rate seems to be like 2%, 2.5%. >> are you seeing the impact of the sequester fading or yet to come? >> t

doesn't get as much attention as the adp, but i like to look at the people who leave their jobs voluntarily. if you quit your job, that means you have optimism you can find another job, generally, not in every case. i like to look at that. how many jobs are open and how many people feel confident enough in the economy and the job market that they can bail. >> there is an economist who looks at that and says that's one of the most important numbers they watch too. >> i've been banging the drum. i haven't gotten any traction. national effort to try to highlight -- >> i think you have a partner, i think that's one of the most important numbers too. it is a good number to watch. that's coming out at 10:00. >> corporate news this morning, the u.s. government filing two civil lawsuits against bank of america. the suits accused the bank of investor fraud and its sale of $850 million of residential most backed securities. latest in the fight between cbs and time warner cable. les moonves dismissing it as a public relations gesture and one little note for everybody, apparently cbs' ratings are only