the president says the bank will purchase asset backed securities, and here in the states, adp says prooiftsector hired 204 thourks worker last month, below forecast, and the big jobs number, of course, tomorrow. europe is the story. for those of us not well schooled, what does this mean? >> what this says, i think, is the german hold on the european economy, hoover style, worry about a balanced budget no matter what is broken by draghi who will take rates whatever it takes to get the economy moving. germany, exact opposite. people are quick to say negative -- listen to the commentary, well, draghi's being foolish, no, he's trying to save europe from germany, trying to be fdr when hoover rules, trying the save the year row at the same time, and we're the collateral gainer. our commodities go down in price because of the dollar. our exporters hurt, of course, but interest rates stay low. don't forget, france has 1.3% tenure. that money's going to come here. i like the idea of the stronger dollar, nothing wrong with that. it's not bad to have a strong dollar. this is not bad for us. >> to thos

jobless claims higher and an adp coming lower than estimated.arkets again in 30 minutes. count down to the open with the top 10. the only stocks you need to know about today. me thisterns is joining morning. let's start with number 10. to buyraded homebuilders from neutral. the company is well-positioned heading into the next age of the housing recovery. price target to buy six dollars, $20 a share. >> h&r block. you can blame canada in a good way. >> h&r block. you can blame canada in a good way. the first quarter loss is lighter than estimated but revenue actually beat. a five-day extension of the boost in revenue. shares are up more than 15%. down --o jpmorgan shares. a price target of $51 per share. what the heck is that? >> that is so cute. >> it is very cute. the stock is up 137 percent in its ipo. >> a new product for google glass. it does not have a display like glass. the wearable device analyzes data from users surrounding and transfers it to a smartphone. , it is a a display little easier on your eyes. a free market. the top end of it

is the adp a good indicator for the nonfarm payrolls report or is it not? because if it is, you would think that the whisper number for today's numbers should be coming down a little bit. we saw a slight disappointment yesterday. >> well, carolin, if you've looked at the adp report, after the disaster forecast in december of last year where the forecast ministers 151,000, in the last six months, the adp report is behaving a lot better. in the last two months, it has missed the nonfarm payrolls, the private payrolls have come in 20,000 on average weaker in the last two months than the actual -- than the actual bls numbers. the bottom line is, with the forecast minus 20,000, i think they view for the possibility that would go above what the adp number is forecasting this month because in the last two months, as you've seen in the reverse, overall in the last six months, it's been a pretty good indicator. and, of course, you're absolutely spot on. that indicator has been spotty. but since 2012, when they re -- the adp, you've seen some improvement, barring, of

i'm not an economist, but i do have a model that looks at adp versus private payrolls. our adp model suggested we should have had about 200,000 in private payroll, so we came in about 136. that is a little bit likely to be adjusted higher. it certainly does not change our forecast, but i do think that if we're going to rely on the consumer to poll 70% of the economy, we're going to be somewhat disappointed, unfortunately. >> steve, does this change ms. yellen's timetable at all on interest rates? does it give us a longer period of qe? >> there is something the market wants that timetable to be. ms. yellen wants to delay this as long as she can. she wants to get as far away from '08-'09. she was in there with the core melting down, so i think this gives her more ammunition to hold off the hawks. i think the consensus is she's announcing a raise in december. we think this gives her the opportunity to push that back. we got draggy this week announcing qe. despite all the positive economic numbers, we're sitting down here below 2.5%, so i think we've got a goldilocks scenar

jobs report out tomorrow with a private sector data from adp.we'll be on that after the break. >>> welcome back. europe is mixed today. the italian market down 20 bafrs points. germany down 50 basis points and the ftse 100 just up. the ecb meeting is coming up in just under two hours. all eyes on mario. will he or won't he ease? >>> let's look at what is happening in u.s. futures. just about a positive open. that's changed in the last half an hour or so. we're expecting the s&p to open up about 2 points and the dow to open up about auto 15 points. so gained a bit of strength in the last hour or so. i'm not quite sure where, but we'll be analyzing various details like that. >> let's give you a look at what's on today's agenda in the united states. the august adp employment report is out at 8:00 a.m. eastern. followed by reports, the trade deficit, productive numbers. at 10:00, we get the ism services index. the next fomc meeting is on september 16th and 17th. >>> home builders hovnanian and el pollo loco. >>> what do you make of the market levels

first up the adp private sector jobs report for august. we also get jobless claims.he july trade deficit, and second quarter productivity. and we've been watching the futures this morning and they have been indicated slightly higher. dow futures up by just about 5.5 points. or i'm sorry dow futures up by about 40 points, the s&p 5.5 points and the nasdaq just over 10. take a look at what's been happening with the ten-year. you'll see at least right now the yield is sitting at 2.416%. >> it's gone up a little. >> the 2.41. it's crazy. vice president joe biden grabbing attention, who could believe it, he's blunt. joe was blunt. his shockingly blunt comments about isis. saying the killers of two americans will have to answer for their actions. >> when people harm americans, we don't retreat. we don't forget. we take care of those who are grieving, and when that's finished, they should know, we will follow them to the gates of hell until they are brought to justice. because hell is where they will reside. >> so, how worried should we be that a major flashpoint could quic

gerri: what do you make of the adp report and what does it tell us about tomorrow? >> we've been in this range, gerri, for about six months now where we're getting 200,000 jobs a month, maybe a little bit more. that's a decent number, gerri, but it is not good enough. it is just not good enough to really bring the jobs back that were lost during this recession much and so we should be at 300, 400, 500,000 jobs a month. we have, i told this before, we had one month in 1980 as, under reagan, had a million jobs one month. ik uever hadt b bre accurate, pretty good predicttor. we'll get another 200,000 jobs. ployment som / r ericl nt feeot better aboutt. gerri: walk through the technical numbers which are, ah. here is what we're expecting. hang on. hang on. here is what we're expecting. job creation, consensus view of economists, 225,000. >> okay. gerri: unemployment rate 6.1% which ticks down from 6.2. you say this is the lowest recovery since world war ii. we're not getting kind of employment we want to see and nds wag g w wa right as you know -- gerri: you get around.

later in the week, adp, jobless claims, and the non-farm payrolls.lsewhere, keep an eye on detroit. it's going to hit the news. basically the municipality was the largest bankruptcy in u.s. meows any cal history. 80 to $100 billion. they are trying to get out of chapter 9 bankruptcy. this could last until the middle of october, but hope to get out of bankruptcy and have $7 billion and invest to reinvigorate detroit. the judge can say yes, no, or want them to alter the plan. high hopes for detroit going forward. >> i love this story. i took a dodge caravan that my family had to borrow to get to college. parents are using a new way to get kids to college now, and it is pretty elaborate. >> yes, that's putting it mildly. you can spend up to 25,000 pounds, up to $40,000 hiring a private jet, a rolls-royce phantom or aston martin or ferrari to get to college. it services the uk and worldwide, will offer to take the students on a luxury route to their college of their choice. i think i'm undercharging my son. i took him up to school, only charged him $1,00

the first piece is the adp private payroll company, which is expected to forecast a 215,000 private sector payroll jobs in august. the claims seen in a relatively low 300,000 and friday the big number seen at 220,000 or the seventh month in a row above 200,000. the unemployment rate is forecast to climb by 1/10th, average wages up .2% from unchanged. fed chair janet yellen, if the improvement is more rapid than the fed anticipates, it could move up the timetable. >> we're in the view of the summertime, but the most questions we're getting is, you know, could it be earlier? could it be -- particularly, people have their eye on the march meeting of next year as a possibility, again, conditional on the jobs numbers looking, you know, good over the remainder of the year. >> reporter: key areas to watch in audition to jobs, the labor force is up by 200,000 as more people are attracted back into the stronger labor market. people working part time for economic reasons up a small 22,000 over the past three months and real wages, well, after adjusting for inflation, they are up .02%. that's a numbe

it's not consistent with adp. it's not consistent with unemployment insurance claims. >> when you look at the trend data, the last three months is over 200,000, the last year we're averaging very solid gains. >> the unemployment rate fell to 6.1% but that's because some 2 million people stopped looking for work last month and were not counted as unemployed, however, at 4.7 million, job openings are at a 13-year high another reason leading economists are skeptical about the data. >> job openings, very dramatically. now the number of open positions are back to where they were prerecession. >> reporter: august job growth leaders include professional and business service adding 47,000 jobs this month and a total of 639,000 in the last year and rebound and vacation travel continues to boost new jobs in the hospitality sector. hotels and restaurants hired another 22,000 jobs, nearly 290,000 in the last year. >> we are now coming off 52 straight months of job growth. this past month showed 22,000 new jobs created and tha

if we throw out adp you are you get to 240.et to make fun of mark. >> we'll get alan's number when we come back. in the meantime, apple's hack fix. we'll talk about it. plus nieman marcus moving to new york city. the ceo joins us after the break. car smell and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great. learn more at buypowercard.com but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running. you just have to win 70% of

adp jobs tomorrow and jobs number on friday. all potentially major market movers have either side.s they go lower. depending on what drawinggy and numbers say. liz: thanks, todd. so far this year the bond bet really in a way has been paying off thanks to a dip in interest rates but our next guest says hold on, hold on, investors please beware. david: he is warning that the bond boom is ending. time to considering alternative income investments. jeff reed, investorplace.com editor. looking into all this. jeff, good to see you. basically we have to remind everybody, when rates go down, value of bond go up, but you will see that reverse shortly. why? >> i do think, nobody has all answers. it surprised some people that rates have dropped as much as they have, 60 basis points since january. this is not something that might happen immediately. might not see immediate rate hike. we have seen improvement on the unemployment front. inflation metrics are little elevated. probably in the cards next year-and-a-half or so. to see rates tick up. very important for people in long-term bond funds.

yesterday's adp report was very strong, so august is a notorious difficult month. it's generally revised higher when more data has come in. i think it's an aberration and the trend is still pretty good. >> we talk about wages for a second. yesterday across this country in many different cities there were fast food workers, some health care workers also protesting for a higher minimum wage right now. this is an issue obviously that the administration has put a lot of energy into as well right now. are workers' paychecks growing fast enough as you witness it taking place around this country or have those basically stagnated? >> wage growth is very weak. it has been very weak since the recession. about 2% each and every year and that's about the rate of inflation. so after inflation, no growth in wages. that is why people are still very nervous about the economy, why their perceptions about the economy are as weak as they are. now, the unemployment is starting to decline. we got another decline in unemployment today. if the current trend lines remain in place, and i e

the private sector added 204,000 jobs last month and that's according to payroll processor adp.er than forecast. meanwhile, filings for weekly jobless claims fell to 204,000, sleetly lower than expected and the government released the closely watched employment data and payrolls rose to 320,000. that's first from cnbc, we are first in business worldwide. we're back in a moment. [thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving. i hope he saved enough. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. whether you're just starting your 401(k) or you are ready for retirement, we'll help you get there. long way from the sandlot. first game in the majors? you don't know "aarp". because this family is enjoying a cross-country baseball stadium trip they planned online at aarp travel. it's where your journey begins with inspiration, planning, booking, and hot travel tips from real pros. if you don't think seize the trip when you think aarp, then

ecb meeting on thursday, the jobs report friday, preview on wednesday with adp.r on a tear. what does it mean? the french, the conservatives look like they're taking the upper house. we'll talk about that and everything that moves the markets after the break. who work with regional experts that's when expertise happens. mfs. because there is no expertise without collaboration. mr. daniels. mr. daniels. look at this. what's this? clicks are off the charts. yeah. yoshi, we're back. yes, sir! ♪ more shipping! more shipping! ♪ [ beeping ] ♪ >>> coming up stocks having another whip saw day. are things about to get rockier as the quarter comes to the end? we'll bring in the experts. a mu way to play alibaba. trade school is in session with pete najarian. how it works. we'll hear from the analyst who raised his price target on that stock. grant hill is in the house. did you know he runs a private equity firm. here to weigh in on everything from student athlete compensation to the nfl to investing. straight ahead on the half. see you at the top of the hour. >> thanks, sc

we just got an adp report out that showed that small businesses hired more than large businesses lastmay be a great time for disgruntled workers to tune up those resumes and restart the old job search. >> yeah. get out there and look. so how should we start? >> reporter: i talked to career experts and they say it's important to look within yourself. you want to identify what you like, what you hate, but also take a real hard look at what you're good at. then start to think like an employer. when you're talking about your experience, focus on the requirements of that new job and put your relevant qualifications front and center on the resume'. that cover letter should make it easy for an employer to visualize you in that job. your goal, you want to make that application shout out that you have the qualifications, the experience, and the enthusiasm that the employer needs and, of course, that you can add value to the enterprise. for more on how to get a jump on a new job, go to jillonmoney.com. >> all right, jill schlesinger, thank you. >>> it is 5:40. a dancing guard at buckingham pala

you.pdate on the news for payroll processor adp said added 204,000 rs jobs last month. it's the fifth straight month of solid gains. job gains above 200,000 a month are usually enough to lower the unemployment rate. the figures suggest that the government's jobs report to be released tomorrow will also show solid increase but the adp numbers cover only private businesses. and sometimes diverge from the government's more comprehensive report. he u.s. trade deficit fell in 1y lowest level since january as machines and semiconductors rose. said therce department trade deficit fell 0.6% in july d $40.5 sonably adjuste billion from $40.8 billion in june. exports rose in july pointing to the possibility secondnger growth in the half of 2014. overseas, the european central ank says it will start a new stimulus program that involves buying financial assets to salvage a weak economic recovery. the announcement came after the ecb said it had cut two key rates today. es the bank'sderlin determination to keep europe's weak recovery from going into reverse. the latestre some of head

adp implement changes ahead of jobs on friday. claims.itial jobless non manufacturing. a lot of stuff. joining us from bloomberg businessweek. >> i can't trade on any of this. >> you can't trade your own attacks. mining., joy global, quicksilver, for surfers. one thing, green bay at seattle. football kicks off. >> i cannot believe it is september. >> do you have your fantasy league lined up? >> i need help. >> we spent all summer talking about football. >> kickball. >> you give us the morning brief, let's get your data check. futures, we saw a pullback earlier and we have come back around. a slight move higher in s&p points. up by 2 10 year yield at 2.4%, all the lows of the last couple days. euro, little change, stuck at the 1.31 level. .21.e oil 95 stockpiles. we have scoured the papers and the web, a skepticism over vladimir putin's peace plan for ukraine. a seven-point plan, the gist of it calls for a troop pullback on both sides and urges prisoner swaps. this will be discussed tomorrow morning at a meeting between rebels and the ukrainian government. cowhenry meyer

adp is over 2000. over 200,000. we are looking for 230,000 jobs today. the whisper number is higher than that. >> what does it mean for the fed? if we get that, will that push interest rates higher? >> probably not. not on those headlines. you have to look beyond the headlines to another number that janet has put front and center. are you getting a raise? that's what it comes down to. the fed still thinks there is a lot of slack in the labor market. look how long it has been since average hourly earnings went up. we are not expecting a lot of evidence on that front today. ust 1/10 or 2/10 of a percent -- of 1%. >> what if we get a surprise? >> market rates will not jump a lot, but the merrill lynch move index -- get some wage growth. that will heighten the drama around janet yellen's news conference two weeks from now. people will be pushing her, what does this mean, when do you think about raising rates? >> we heard these questions for so long. thank you so much, mike mckee, our economics editor. we are taking an even deeper look into america's hiring p

adp was really good. i sm. if there is something worth thinking about. to 17 have disappointed and 12 to 14 have been revised higher. there is a seasonality to this. august is a weird period when it -- toto hiring you hiring. some of the retail data was surprising. analysishere was some that has to be done on that. i think you have to think about we are still growing at a pretty good rate. >> does it change your view about when the fed may shift policy and when we may see interest rate hikes? >> we have been adamant about the fed moving faster than people think. i do think that piece coming out was significant. we are in a period of transition. you can't him nor the fact that you can't ignore the fact that the 0% fund rate is not an emergency condition. aboutple are talking should the fed raise rates and arguments lead vehemently about that. -- we are not in an emergency anymore. things are getting better an. what you are seeing at this level is distortions and asset allocations. companies are using the low rates because their stock prices going up to bu

wednesday, adp, 215, jobless claims down at the low level, down at 300,000, and nonforeign payrolls down in a sect, and 220, unemployment ticked down, 6.1%, and hourly average wages changed from the same to.2%. rapid pace, the labor force increasing at at 200,000 monthly pace, part-time for economic reasons, on the way up, real wages up, not a missing print, just .02%. yellen said this pattern of wage gains could suggest they rise quickly without any meaningful upward pressure on inflation. she thinks there's room to run. the thing the fed is doing in jackson hole, the new fed indicator, a bunch of researchers at the fed put 19 indicators into one index to rule them all right here. you see it's on the upswing, but not as strong as it's been, something yellen says unemployment rate overstates the labor market. what's interesting 1 risk as to whether or not the fed moves faster or as anticipated by the marke markets, june, summer of next year. the futures market, reflecting none of that risk out there. .71 is expected for the feds' fund rate in 2015. a year ago, it was up to 1.2, 120 point

even if it doesn't get revised keep in mind that just before the number we had adp, which also has astrong track record of its own and private payrolls in that report were up 204,000, not 134 in the payroll number. take a look at auto sales data, consumer confidence data, the nonfarm number seems like odd man out. even if we don't see august revision the september payroll number will make up for lost ground in august. >> paul a lot of people say, all right, maybe it was weak, maybe it won't get revised higher. in a sense it's going -- it does give yellen more time to make up the fed's mind. >> that's right. the doves are in control of the fed. i think they've made that clear. so i don't think that changes much that investors had to look forward to. >> what do you think, david? what's the conversation inside the federal reserve? does it change at all from what it was leading up to next week's meeting? >> well, you know, firstly, the markets are priced for the fed to start hiking the funds rate in the mid part of next year. so, why on earth would in august payroll report have any beari

it's not consistent with adp.istent with unemployment insurance claims. >> i think with everything else coming on on ui claims, ism, this is a blip. maybe things were stronger than they seemed before, but i think that the underlying trend is 200,000 jobs a month. >> which added if this is sustained payroll growth, i'm a fish. okay. it's perhaps not surprising that payroll's disappointing. there were extraordinary steady, they don't act that, really, and there's a run over 200,000 for the prior six months, i can't find that going back until 1999. the fed, though, likely to see the number as an outlier, but the market reads into how the fed thinks about this, double market psychology, and they believe it takes the wind out of the sails, lessens the risk of the fed, moving up the timetable, i think it's wait and see on constitution avenue and 21st street for the federal reserve and less p rhetoric from the hawks and take off the boil of surprises that might have happened in september. >> it's a perfect number, theref

look to next week with adp on wednesday and nonfarm payroll on friday.s an expansion of the job market and get to 2.5% to 3%. growth for 2014 and which means more volatility, the dollar is going to strengthen. policies around the world to allow the fed to push through. no one else is close to lick i canty out of the markets not even the chinese. looking for growth around the world, probably going to get some of that selectively in southeast asia and the u.s. market is going to continue to be a place for people to invest. i think energy stocks which have significantly underperformed the s&p over six months are the place to look, not because oil prices are lower but the valuations with interesting. >> brazil energy, bpr. the big number next week is pce. if that's a negative number -- >> so true. >> bernanke speaks sunday in chicago. the five-year forward is going down. >> right. inflation expectation. >> whoever is saying that the fed is tightening -- >> that was greg. greg, you want to answer that before you go. >> no. it's a great point. i want to add th

it's not consistent with anything, anything, not consistent with ism, not consistent with adp, not consistentployment insurance claims. here's an intrepid forecast for you -- >> are you saying bls cooked these numbers? >> no, no, next month these numbers will be revised higher. >> let's get some reaction now, not only from our panel, but barry, and tim gimable from la salle networks. gary, what did you think? it is a bit of an outlier compared to what we've been getting the last six months. what do you think of the number and what do you make of it? >> it is, august is a very tough month, but don't look for it to go up 300,000. there's a broad trend here with ceos, and that is, you know, you're not going to hire then innovate, you're going to innovate then hire. that's where we're at. >> you're going to see this number revised, only a matter of time before we get new data and it goes up. today we got data that revised june and july down. >> it's revised every month anyway. august is usually a very slow month from the standpoint of companies and hiring managers, jobs as aggressively in august

thursday, it's the adp report, international trade, productivity and cost and ism nonmanufacturing.riday, it is the government's big employment report. forecasters say the economy probably added 220,000 jobs last month. if so, it would mark the seventh straight month above the 200,000 mark. that's the longest streak like that since 1997. right now, let's take la look at the markets. this morning, futures are indicated higher. right now, dow futures up by about 36 points above s&p 500. the nasdaq up by just over 11. if you've been watching oil prices, you'll see they're do i know down slightly. wti right now down by about 76 cents. all the way down to 95.20. ice brent is at 101.98. we've been keeping an eye on what's happening in the bond markets. the ten-year note at this point is yielding 2.38%. and the dollar, that's interesting to watch, the euro has been under pressure. the dollar is up against is, 1.3112. all of this with the ecb decision coming later this week. we'll be hearing more from them. the dollar is up against both the pound and the yen. gold prices this morning look l

as regards to job creation, i don't know, you've added adp comes d friday, out. the department the department of labor. added approximately 10.3 million jobs since january 1, 2010. we're averaging over 170,000 jobs created per month. the 96 months under president bush, we added 13,541.2 jobs per month. the big issue is the media. the media. no job -- 2.3 million. to hit ate, we're going 16 million, 17 million by january 17, 2017. host: thanks, caller. guest: your point is interesting. you have to look at it in the living costs. washington or other urban areas, it's difficult to live off of when you look at the cost of housing and food. if you look at gas or car, even if you take public transportation, that check very gets eaten away. over inflation has risen the years, the minimum wage power has eroded as well. host: stillwell with bloomberg talk about us to the state of the labor department. thanks for coming. guest: thank you for having me. host: but first, c-span radio. 6:30 a.m. eastern time. international news this hour, for s government is asking an interna